The case for sitting Shohei Ohtani in NLCS Game 3
The most alarming statistic is not his batting average. It's that he's hitting .036 against pitches of 95 mph or faster. That's the kind of velocity he will continue seeing in October.
The argument for benching Shohei Ohtani is considerably stronger than the claim that he's simply in a slump. For nearly two months, Ohtani has been a shadow of his former self, and the underlying numbers suggest his swing is fundamentally out of sync.
With the Dodgers trailing Milwaukee 2-0 in the NLCS, here's the statistical argument for sitting him Wednesday, October 14.
Ohtani's last two months
Batting average - .200
OPS - .671
Strikeouts - 35
That was the Regular season, August 13 through September 27, 2026, excluding postseason. 24 games, 95 at-bats.
His postseason numbers make the picture even worse.
2026 postseason
At-bats - 20
Hits - 3
Batting average - .150
On-base percentage - .261
Slugging percentage - .150
Home runs - 0
RBIs - 0
Extra-base hits - 0
Strikeouts - 7
I'd rather have James Outman out there than Ohtani! At least you know he would run into one occasionally.
Five reasons ohtani should sit
1. He cannot catch up to good fastballs. Against pitches 95 mph and faster, Ohtani has hit just .036 with a .071 slugging percentage since August 19, compared with .280 and .441 before that date. That's one hit against premium velocity during this stretch. EVERYBODY FOR MILWAUKEE THROWS MORE THAN 95 MPH FASTBALLS!
2. His power has disappeared. His last home run was on August 18, and he hasn't homered at Dodger Stadium since August 12. There hasn't been a single extra-base hit in the postseason.
3. His swing timing is deteriorating. His late-swing rate against four-seamers and sinkers has reached 37%, compared with the MLB average of 25%. His contact point has moved significantly deeper.
4. His health remains a concern. Left knee and right biceps issues have led to missed time and may explain why he isn't getting into a proper hitting position. His bat speed is still there, but his timing isn't.
5. The Dodgers cannot afford unproductive at-bats. They trail 2-0 in a seven-game series. Starting someone because of his reputation rather than his present ability to contribute is a gamble when every outcome matters.
Those swing and velocity figures come from MLB's October 13 analysis.
The argument against benching him
Ohtani is still Ohtani. He finished the regular season with 30 home runs, a .275 batting average, and an .889 OPS. A player of his ability can change a postseason game with one swing.
Also, benching him means replacing him with a less experienced hitter, potentially Josue De Paula. That is not automatically an offensive upgrade.
Dave Roberts has now indicated Ohtani will start Game 3, according to MLB's latest report. I believe that is a wrong decision. DISCLAIMER: I also acknowledge that I do not have all the information the Dodgers' brass has.
I would seriously consider sitting Ohtani for Game 3, particularly if his physical condition is still limiting his mechanics. This is not a six-game slump. It's a sustained decline that began in August, with a 24-game regular-season stretch of .200 hitting, a postseason average of .150, and an almost complete inability to handle high-velocity pitching.
The most alarming statistic is not his batting average. It's that he's hitting .036 against pitches of 95 mph or faster. That's the kind of velocity he will continue seeing in October.
I'd rather have a healthy hitter with good timing than a superstar struggling to get his barrel to the baseball. And keeping Ohtani available to pinch-hit gives Roberts another option in a critical late-game situation.
I would be more comfortable if he pulled a Kirk Gibson... and pinch-hit. That's when adrenaline can really take over!
The Dodgers need the best version of Shohei Ohtani, not simply his name penciled into the lineup.
This smacks of pure arrogance, self-centeredness, and delusion! Prove me wrong, Shohei!
Arizona fall league
Eduardo Quintero continues to struggle mightily. He was 0-for-4 last night with 3 STRIKEOUTS AND IS BATTING .174.
Discussion (5)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Quintero & Davalan should both start 2027 in AA, unless Davalan's switch to 2B necessitates a slower path forward.
Latest news is that Shohei will be playing. Perhaps Roberts will move his down past cleanup in the batting order--but I doubt it. It sure would be nice for him to hit the ball hard... Would the Dodgers be tempted to give JdP a start in LF against a RHP? Fat chance. I know defense is an issue with the rookie, but it's not like Teo is a gold glover. The key, I think, is for Snell to contain the Brewers. Just for fun, here's a lineup with JdP in and Teo out:
De Paula LF (he's been an on-base machine in the majors) Mookie SS Freddie 1B Pages CF (a lot of success against Gasser, who is expected to pitch) Max 3B Smith C (he's due! he has to be!) Tucker RF (he's due! he has to be!!! Shohei DH (fingers crossed) Edman 2B
Bench of Teo, Kike, Rojas, Feduccia
Mark, I agree with most all of your comments except for your last sentence. I don't consider Ohtani to be arrogant or self-centered, although at this point he may be a bit delusional. I have tremendous respect for his talent and for him as a person. I think he's just trying to do too much here out of a huge sense of obligation to the team, the fans and his contract.
In DePaula, we have someone who might actually be a major help to the lineup. It's not as though we're recommending that they bench Shohei and start Alex Call in his place.
I very much hope he goes 4-4 but that won't change my mind about whether he should have started . I guess none of us should be surprised that Doc is going with his veteran guy. He does that most all the time, and in all honesty, it works out a lot of the time. Here's hoping this is one of those times.
I'm also going on record that if Shohei has another game like his recent ones, they'll sit him for game 4.
I fully agree with your assessment. Two months of sub-poor performance is plenty data sample to warrant benching even god under playoff circumstances, poor health or not. Alternatively, bat him in the nine hole, one notch short of leadoff while minimizing his ABs.