Disclaimer: I am not saying that the LA Dodgers have the best pitching in MLB. However, the possibility exists that they COULD. They certainly have the quantity… the quality is in question by some.
At the age of 28, he won the CY Young and the MVP with a 24-5 record and a 2.40 ERA. Over the next few years, here was his ERA:
- Age 29 – 2.64 ERA
- Age 30 – 3.46 ERA
- Age 31 – 4.54 ERA
- Age 32 – 3.38 ERA
- Age 33 – 3.04 ERA
- Age 34 – 3.36 ERA
- Age 35 – 2.52 ERA
- Age 36 – 2.58 ERA
For his career, he has a 3.33 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP and his name is Justin Verlander. Compare that to one Clayton Kershaw. who posted the worst ERA of his career at age 31 (3.04… and that’s his “worst“). Yet some of you feel he is not elite anymore, even though he had the 10th best ERA among starters last season. At age 31, Justin Verlander had a 4.54 ERA and at 31, Clayton was a run and a half less than that.
What changed for Verlander? Well, the Astros have also had great success with other pitchers like Charlie Morton, Alex Pressly, and Gerrit Cole. It’s just not Verlander that they have helped. Verlander’s career ERA in Detroit was 3.49; in Houston, it’s 2.43. Cole’s was 3.50 in Pittsburgh and is 2.84 with the Astros. Pressly’s was 3.75 in Minnesota; it’s 1.95 in Houston. What did they do? Well they have been very secretive but I believe that it boils down to this:
- Strengthen your core
- Forget conventional training wisdom
- Throw your best pitches more
- Throw your worst pitches less
- Change your patterns
Simple… but effective. Many of the things Houston has been doing is similar to what Driveline Baseball focuses upon. The Associated Press wrote this about Gerrit Cole:
Gerrit Cole walked into a conference room after one of his first spring training workouts with the Houston Astros in February 2018 and was met by about 10 people.
“There was charts, video, matching charts,” Cole recalled. “It was all new then, but it’s pretty straightforward to me now.”Hinch considers the presentation a trade secret, not surprising for an organization whose analytics team employed former NASA biomathematician Sig Mejdal, now with Baltimore.
Cole transformed into perhaps the best pitcher in the major leagues after that one-hour presentation, increasing the usage of his four-seam fastball and curveball, pretty much dropping his two-seam sinker and attacking the top of the strike zone far more frequently.
“The preparation behind the scenes for what goes into the meetings and the communication with our players is unmatched in my time in the game,” said Hinch, in pro baseball for about a quarter-century. “Selling them is about providing them as much information as you can in an environment that’s a two-way street and applying it onto the field, which is what the player is in charge of. So that’s about as much detail as I’m going to give you about our meetings because it’s something that we consider very important to the development of our players.”
I am not even close to giving up on Clayton Kershaw. In fact, I have a feeling he will be the Dodgers Ace again in 2020 with Walker Buehler being a capable 1A. Clayton does not have to “reinvent” himself. If Rob Hill and Driveline can add one or two MPH back to his fastball, help him focus on his best pitches, keep his core strong and vary his pitches a little, he could once again be devastating… and with a 3.04 ERA last year, he is not far from it. Keep your conventional wisdom. You can live your life in the rear-view mirror, but I prefer the windshield.
If Clayton does not do that, then maybe a trade deadline deal will be in the works, but Clayton is not the only one who can benefit from Rob Hill and Driveline. I think the Dodgers organization as a whole is changing their perception about pitch counts and training. Mike Marshall’s theories are coming back into vogue again and pitchers like Julio Urias (who could be a great #2), Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, and others could benefit from the Dodgers new direction.
Add in Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Josiah Gray and the Dodgers could have the makings of Baseball’s Best Pitching Staff… top-to-bottom! Will it happen? It could… or it couldn’t, but they have too many good arms to discount it. While some of you think this staff lacks a “Second Ace,” I don’t. Buehler and Kershaw could be devastating.
Everyone wants to just hand the World Series Championship to the Yankees, but beyond Gerrit Cole, they have more questions than a first-grader. Severino, Paxton, and Tanaka have huge injury histories and their relievers are aging. I think everyone who is anointing the Yankees will be surprised.
I for one, am looking forward to Spring Training and watching the competition between all of the pitchers on the MLB roster for the Dodgers as well as the non-roster invitees. I think this pitching staff could be really great… but a lot has to happen. Don’t forget that Ross Stripling, Blake Treinen, Alex Wood, and Jimmy Nelson were once All-Stars, but I am focused on the windshield, not the rear-view mirror.
Finally, I do not want to lose this guy, even though I want Betts:
Discussion (42)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Boston may want to announce a Betts trade tomorrow on Super bowl Sunday and dodgers might want to wait to get max exposure.
Verdugo and Betts are nowhere near the same player.
Verdugo is a prospect still basically that couldn’t stay on the field. Betts is arguably the second best player in MLB.
The point is a good one that the Dodgers are in the drivers seat on a potential trade. LA doesn’t NEED him so therefore can walk fairly easily and deal with the regrets much like anyone who is shopping for a purely luxery item.
Betts changes the whole team. There is no doubt. Verdugo doesn’t.
There comes a point with this group that we have to go all in. Betts is that move right now, and if he comes and like the Hollywood Lifestyle then he could become a staple for the next 7-9 years without hampering the ability to sign Bellinger. Seager…….meh. I’d let him walk unless he drastically becomes a better player over the next couple years. he just has never seemed to improve, and yes I know that he has dealt with injuries.
I want to win a WS as a fan. I really want #22 to get one, and hopefully be a major contributor to it to rewrite his legacy a bit. Clayton seems like a good man. I’d like his legend to be in the proper persepctive when I tell my grandkids that I use to watch him pitch.
So if the Dodgers don’t want Price but the Sox have to get under the tax could they settle on Eovaldi? What would people think of that?
Betts is one of the best players in baseball, and I think we have to try to get him. He seems like a perfect player for us, and the addition of a strong righthanded hitter would really upgrade our lineup, which we all know is vulnerable to good lefthanded pitching, particularly out of the bullpen late in games. So this is an opportunity we shouldn’t pass up.
Obviously, it is a much better opportunity if we can sign Betts for multiple seasons, and that has to be calculated in, too. If we could get Betts for seven years or so, we suddenly have a lineup which is as good as anybody’s, even the Yankees, if we can keep Bellinger. If we keep Seager, too, then we are in great shape offensively, and we don’t need Verdugo, though he could certainly turn into a very good player.
Also, when you add a great player to your roster, it gives you more flexibility to trade a few good but lesser pieces in order to fortify your needs, which in our case are a closer and another strong starter. I would like to see the Dodgers have a core of three or four top players, like we did in the ’70’s, and like the Yankees have now in their starting lineup. Versatility and assorted lineups has its value, but having an everyday lineup which knows its usual batting position, is better than that. Although we have seen that some second-tier players can come up big in a world series, it is usual the best players who lead you all the way to a title. If you can get one of those by not trading your few untouchable players, you have to go for it. It may not work out, for one reason or another, but you have to take a high-reward chance sometimes, if you want to win one or multiple titles. I don’t see Betts, who was instrumental in winning the title in 2018, coming here and not doing it again.
The Dodgers hold the card here. Boston needs to reduce salary, the Dodgers don’t have to do anything AF isn’t going to make any rash moves, there’s no need to.
Friedman did not make the dope-fiend Punto Trade. Nor will he make a dope-fiend move here.
Okay, we all know and understand that we don’t need David Price. We aren’t certain what Price will bring. So, if the Red Sox insist on Price going with Betts, what do you?
It’s your call. Do you still include Verdugo? They may insist on that. Do you include Pederson, lessening the Price contract? Can you move Pederson to another team? Do you really want to move Pederson?
You now understand that the Padres are no longer in the hunt. This is strictly about dumping payroll.
The first problem is that with Betts you have way too many outfielders: Pollock, Taylor, Hernandez, Pederson and Bellinger. That doesn’t include Verdugo if he isn’t included in the trade. Of course, Hernandez and Taylor can play infield, but there is not enough at bats unless they play some OF. Obviously something has to give. You may be looking at substantial changes, which means Roberts original statement on roster turnover will be correct.
Final deal. What does this look like if it actually happens? No, Pollock is staying, so don’t include him.
Pollock was quoted saying he wants to play CF and not platoon. He has been working out trying to regain speed and flexibility. He is 32 and can’t be counted on to be a core player due to his inability to stay healthy.
At one time the Dodgers had Drew, Garciapara, and Werth hitting in the 3, 4,and 5 spots and during that time all three were health risks. A team just can’t have hitters in those spots where at least one and preferably 2 won’t get 650+ PAs.
Last year Seager and Pollock were supposed to be core players and were not. Verdugo hasn’t yet proved he is good for 650+ PAs. And while Joc stays healthy and will always be available to play defense and come into a game if he doesn’t start, he is not a core player by the 650+ PA definition. Turner needs rest and he no longer is a core player by that definition.
The Dodgers need Betts and his 650+ PAs. Lindor and Arenado also are 650+ PA players.
I think Verdugo will be traded to Boston for Betts. I think either Joc or Pollock will be traded as well if they can be part of a trade that gets a superstar.
Betts, Price (and all his salary to Angels). Angels flip Betts to Dodgers. Dodgers send Stripling, Hernandez, Rios and prospect to Boston and Maeda to Angels. Everyone’s happy.
Concerning a Betts trade, not much has been discussed is how determined Boston is to get under the $208M threshold. If that is their main objective then they should not expect two or three top prospects in return from the Dodgers. The Dodgers bailed them out once with that stupid Punto trade and I don’t think we need to do it again. Right now Boston is approximately $30M over the $208M limit. So, if nothing changes they are looking at Mookie’s 2020 salary of $27M plus penalty of $15M (30M x 50%) plus a surtax of $3.6M (30M x 12%). By trading Betts they are saving approximately $45M. That’s $45M and gets them close to getting under the tax treshold and resetting the penalty liabilities. That still leaves them $3M over and they should be able to manage to reduce that to get under the $208M figure.
There is no reason to consider taking on Price’s contract at a full or reduced price. We don’t need him. And, we surely don’t need to bail out Boston AGAIN for there salary mismanagement. I’m OK including Verdugo and maybe a one or two low level prospects in a trade, but no way Lux, Ruiz, Gonsolin, etc. should be included. If it that important for Boston to get under the $208M figure for the first time in three years (and save $45M AND reset the penalty tax) then they are delusional to think they can expect a huge return on any trade. Hell, they should GIVE the Dodgers prospects to do that trade.
Yes to Betts. A huge no to Betts and Price (even at a reduced salary). Again, the Dodgers shouldn’t reward Boston’s terrible salary management. Consider this. Boston trades for and over pays Price. He helps them win a World Series against the Dodgers (along with possible cheating). And then after they use him to defeat us and now is way over paid they want the Dodgers to bail them out and take on Price’s salary and injury history. Ah, no thanks. Am I being spiteful? Yup. And, if it prevents us from getting Betts I’m OK with that. It’s not like Verdugo or Pederson are chopped liver.
Patrick Creighton seems to have good sources, he reports:
Per sources: sticking point in #RedSox #Dodgers deal for Mookie Betts right now is how much of David Price’s deal (3/$96m) LA will absorb
Boston wants LA to take all of it. Dodgers haggling, trying to get Boston to pay a part.
They believe two sides will get it worked out.
Interesting column, Mark.
Clayton Kershaw is an exceptional pitcher. Still is an exceptional pitcher. Oh, I get the he hasn’t won a World Series thinking. But he actually has pitched well at times in the playoffs. He pitched remarkably well in the 2017 World Series at Dodger Stadium, not so well in Houston. I think we can more or less figure out why. Alex Wood did pitch a great game in Houston, but only after the Dodgers figured out something was truly wrong when the Astros battered both Kershaw and Brandon Morrow, moving to a system where signs and keys changed constantly between pitches.
Clayton has some great moments in the playoff, including closing out a game against Washington.
No, he hasn’t been great in the World Series except in the 2017 games at home, allowing just one run over 11 innings and striking out 15.
As to Gerrit Cole, he was always a good pitcher, who had velocity and excellent stuff, had a very good 2015 season (19-8, 2.60 ERA). They made a few changes when he went to Houston, utilizing the velo more, pitching up in the zone etc.
He was very successful that first year, but got blown up in the playoffs against Boston. In 2019, he was lights out in the playoffs, but the Nationals did get to him and he ended up with 1-1 record and a 3.86 ERA, good, but not great.
All of this still boils down to the basics. Hitting is about timing and pitching is about disrupting timing, more than a few ways to do that. Yes, if Kershaw could pick up a couple of ticks on his fastball that would really help. So whatever methods the new guys use to help him gain an edge is a good thing.
Yah, I agree with Mark, I would hate to lose Alex Verdugo. He brings an energy the Dodgers need, plus he can hit the ball to all fields, play great defense and has developing power. What’s not to like? Maybe a balky back?
He could start in Boston’s outfield this season and offer them an affordable quality player for the next few years.
If the Dodgers trade for Mookie Betts they should try to sign him long term, but only if they factor in signing Cody Bellinger, Cory Seager and Walker Buehler to long term contracts. If they were willing to offer $300 million to Cole, they could certainly afford Betts, an every day player who some people consider to be the second best player in baseball behind Mike Trout.
Enough with the Andrew Friedman won’t sign big long term contracts nonsense. If the Yankees weren’t in the hunt, the Dodgers would have inked Cole to a huge contract, an offer that many analysts and Friedman watchers said would never happen.
I suspect the Dodgers want to acquire Betts for an entire year to not only improve their World Series chances, but to help them determine whether they believe a long term deal would make sense. Much easier to figure when you see the player every day.
We are going to go down that road again with kershaw omg. He has been a great dodger and has had some post season success. But, in the biggest moments he has not measured up by his own admission. The Houston cheating scandal just gives excuses to those who want to make kershaw number 1 in post season again. What did he do against the Yankees in regular season? Arguably, one of the dumbest decisions in the past post season was putting kershaw at number 2 and making Ryu the 3 so that kershaw could blow the game in relief.
You could say that most everyone has been saying over and over again that our bullpen was not good enough and AF ignored it. Or, that Roberts had the guy in the bullpen in kolarek but wouldn’t use him. 2 things you can’t argue is 1. Kershaw has not performed nearly as effectively as he has in the regular season and 2. Our bullpen has been a negative in the postseason either because AF didn’t provide the necessary players or Roberts doesn’t know how to manage the bullpen.
Right now I think if we think kershaw is a 1 or 2 in the post season we are in insanity land again. Secondly, Treinen could be the missing bullpen piece if healthy. Kelly and Baez are not the answers in the setup role. Moving forward pitching is an area for improvement starting and relieving. Having said all that Betts would be a great addition now and in the future.
I am really looking forward to Spring Training , could be one of the better ones in recent years. I am surprised that I find myself agreeing with most of your post Mark, not all but most of it.
As much as I like Verdugo, I’d give him up in a trade for Betts, but when watching the MLB channel yesterday and they’re talking about a package of Verdugo, Ruiz and Gray, time to walk away Renee. I would however give up that package for Clevinger. I’d give it up for Betts too if he’d sign a 7-10 year contract first. As for Driveline, if some of their magic can run of on our pitching, I’m hoping for domination for years to come.
Verlander is still throwing 95-97 mph not 89-90. Kersh still had a very good regular season last year. But the Dodgers do play in the NL West so you have to take all their stats with a grain of salt. It isn’t just Kersh. Most of the team underperforms in October. What can you say, October just seems to bring out the best in Buehler and the worst in Kersh. It is what it is. And it’s time for Bellinger and Seager to step up when the bright lights are on!
I just can’t agree about Kershaw. He has been one of the all time great pitchers in the regular season. No doubt. But you just can’t ignore the failures in October. And now his fastball is 89-90 and he’s still throwing it mid-mid way too much. And his slider just isn’t as devastating as it used to be as well. There is no way it ends well for Kersh or the Dodgers if he’s pitching two times against a lineup like the Yankees in October. You just can’t ignore history
100% spot on, from beginning to end.