SHOULD THE DODGERS BUNT MORE
"Did the bunt actually increase our chances of scoring or winning?” Most of the time, the traditional sacrifice bunt fails that test.
The short answer is, "Yes, I they want to score fewer runs!"
Some fans have (rightfully) been talking about bunting, so I thought I would do a deep dive into bunting and actually... how it relates to the Dodgers. "To bunt... or not to bunt... that is the question." Actually, like most things in life... there is no simple answer. There is a lot of context and nuance around bunting.
I think that modern analytics changed the question from “Did the bunt move the runner?” to “Did the bunt actually increase our chances of scoring or winning?” Most of the time, the traditional sacrifice bunt fails that test.
The biggest reason is that outs are more valuable than 90 feet. With a runner on first and nobody out, sacrificing him to second gives the defense one-third of the outs it needs while taking the bat out of the hands of a hitter who might walk, single, double, or homer. Baseball Savant's historical win-probability data gives a striking example: down one run in the ninth, runner on first and nobody out, a successful sacrifice bunt actually reduces the batting team's win probability by about 4.9 percentage points.
There are several reasons bunting nearly disappeared:
Power is enormously valuable. Teams would rather give a hitter three chances to drive the ball than deliberately surrender one.
Pitchers don't hit anymore. The universal DH eliminated thousands of obvious bunt situations. MLB noted that sacrifice bunting dropped substantially after the universal DH became permanent in 2022. Some teams trained their pitchers to only bunt.
The runner-on-first sacrifice is particularly weak mathematically. FanGraphs found that bunting a runner from first to second generally costs expected runs, while moving a runner from second to third with nobody out is a much more defensible use of the bunt.
Today's hitters aren't trained to bunt much. Because bunting 95-100 mph pitching with extreme movement isn't easy. A bad bunt can result in a force play, a pop-up, or a two-strike foul.
Teams value big innings. Runner on first, nobody out might become a three-run inning. Runner on second, one out is increasingly a one-run proposition.
But here's the fascinating part: the bunt is starting to come back in 2026.
Through early June, bunts were occurring in about 0.9% of MLB plate appearances, up from 0.7% in 2025, the highest rate of the universal-DH era. Teams aren't returning to old-fashioned "bunt because that's what you're supposed to do" baseball. They're using it selectively as an offensive weapon.
And that's where I think baseball has finally landed in the right place.
Sacrifice bunting indiscriminately is bad strategy. Strategic bunting can be excellent strategy.
For example, I'd seriously consider it with runner on second, nobody out in a one-run game, a weak hitter facing an elite strikeout pitcher, a speedster bunting for a hit against a deep third baseman, or on a squeeze where scoring one run has enormous value. There's also an interesting modern wrinkle: today's pitchers are often huge power arms who aren't necessarily great at exploding off the mound, fielding a bunt, and making an accurate throw. Milwaukee has specifically talked about exploiting that.
And the numbers are supporting better, not merely more, bunting. In 2026, through the period FanGraphs studied, bunts were producing a .533 batting average, versus .468 in 2025, while unsuccessful bunts had declined from 22% to 19%.
So the bunt isn't dead. The automatic sacrifice bunt is dying. The tactical bunt is being reborn.
For a team like the Dodgers, there's an especially interesting argument that October baseball should involve more bunting than regular-season baseball, because the value of one run changes dramatically in certain late-inning situations.
For the Dodgers specifically, I think the modern anti-bunt philosophy sometimes goes too far. The key distinction is this:
Don't bunt to manufacture runs. Bunt when one specific run has extraordinary value.
That distinction changes everything.
Here is how I'd handle it:
Here's where I differ from some analytics people
Run expectancy isn't always the right measurement.
Suppose it's the bottom of the ninth, 2-2, runner on second, nobody out.
I don't give a hoot whether the Dodgers' expected runs for the inning fall from 1.1 to 0.95.
I don't need 1.1 runs. I need ONE.
That's where win probability should override run expectancy.
Move that runner to third and suddenly the opposing pitcher is walking through a minefield:
Sac fly. Ground ball through a drawn-in infield. Wild pitch. Passed ball. Balk. Bunt. Infield hit. Error.
The defense also has to change. With the winning run on third, the infield may come in, dramatically increasing the chance that an ordinary ground ball becomes a hit.
And there's another bunt that I think is badly underused
The bunt for a hit.
Modern defenses are built around Statcast positioning. Third basemen frequently play deep because everyone's terrified of exit velocity.
Fine.
Drop one 25 feet down the third-base line.
Then do it again next week.
Suddenly that third baseman can't camp 105 feet from home plate. You've altered his positioning even when you don't bunt.
That's chess rather than sacrifice.
And MLB clubs themselves seem to be rediscovering this. Bunting increased noticeably in 2026 after years of decline.
The Dodgers situation I'd especially like to see
Tie game. Bottom 8th or later. Runner on second. Nobody out. Bottom third of the order.
Put the bunt on.
But with Ohtani, Betts, Freeman or Tucker?
Let them hit.
That's the middle ground I think modern baseball sometimes misses: analytics proved that routine sacrifice bunting was dumb. Somewhere along the way, some teams interpreted that as "bunting is dumb." Those aren't the same thing.
And there's an even more interesting Dodgers question: with their October history of striking out with runners in scoring position, is a Dodgers playoff bunt actually worth MORE than the generic MLB run-expectancy table says?
I can't say!
OKC Comets 12 – El Paso Chihuahuas (San Diego) 0
LHSP Jackson Ferris is ending the year with a flourish. Today, he took a perfect game into the 7th. It ended when Miguel Andujar reached on a 1-out infield single. Ferris retired the next two to end any threat.
Ferris walked his 1st batter with one out in the 8th. He struck out the next batter and reached 102 pitches. Ferris was relieved by LHRP Garrett McDaniels who got the final out.
RHRP Edwin Díaz was scheduled to pitch in this game. He entered the 9th in mop up duty. He got the first two outs, but then allowed a double to Andujar before getting the 3rd out on a 6-3 groundout. What does that mean for Díaz?
Ferris’ line – 7.2 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 BB, 13 K. Outstanding effort.
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This was Ferris’ 6th consecutive excellent start. In those 6 starts, he had 36.0 IP, allowed 4 runs, 22 hits, 11 BB, and 48 K. That is a 1.00 ERA, 0.917 WHIP, and 12K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 4.36 K/BB. He has done this in 6 games in the PCL.
OKC did not put up much of an offense of their own over the first three innings. In the 4th inning, DH Ryan Ward and 1B Matt Gorski both singled. 2B Hyeseong Kim then lined into a triple play. Both runners took off on the pitch. Kim lined the pitch to 1B, who stepped on 1B, and threw to 2nd for the 3rd out.
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Ward’s single was probably his last AB with OKC. Hopefully someone will pick him up and keep him on their 40-man.
OKC broke through in the 5th. 3B Ryan Fitzgerald doubled (33), moved to 3rd on a WP, and scored on a SF from C Chadwick Tromp.
OKC broke it open in the 7th. Gorski led off with a double (4). Kim’s single scored Gorski. After Kim stole 2nd, he scored on Fitzgerald’s 2nd double of the game (34). Fitzgerald scored on SS Noah Miller’s RBI single. Miller stole 2nd and 3rd. Tromp drew a BB. CF Zach Ehrhard’s single scored Miller and Tromp moved to 2nd. LF Alek Thomas walked to load the bases. Miller scored on a SF from RF James Tibbs III. Pinch hitting for Ward, DH Chris Newell singled to score Tromp for 6 runs in the inning.
If they opened it up in the 7th, they slammed the door shut in the 8th. Fitzgerald opened with a BB and Miller followed with a single. With one out, Ehrhard walked to load the bases. Thomas singled to score Fitzgerald. JTIII hit his 2nd SF of the game. Newell then put on the exclamation point with a 3-run HR and a 12-0 lead.
The win put OKC into the playoffs where they will play the Las Vegas Aviators (A’s) in a best 2 of three series that begins next Tuesday in Las Vegas at 7:05 PM PT. All games will be played in Las Vegas.
OKC still has 4 games to play to end the regular season. All four will be played in El Paso.
· Alek Thomas – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI
· Chris Newell – 2-3, 1 run, 4 RBI, HR (3)
· Matt Gorski – 2-5, 1 run, double (4)
· Ryan Fitzgerald – 2-4, 1 BB, 3 runs, 1 RBI, 2 doubles (34)
· Noah Miller – 2-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI
· Zach Ehrhard – 1-3, 2 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI
Great Lakes News
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Discussion (91)
Disagree, not disagreeable
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Don't trust Miller. He is not on my playoff roster, neither is Halvorsen. Diaz? No shot.
That's 5 HR in his last 13 games for Tucker.
One reason the Dodgers lead the majors in hitting into double plays is the failure to bunt at appropriate moments. The other day, IIRC, the Dodgers had runners on first and second with zero outs and Freeland, batting ninth, at the plate. I wanted to see a bunt to move runners to 2nd and 3rd with one out and the top of the order at the plat. Freeland hit into a double play. Just seemed like stupid baseball.
Two interesting things from this Ben Clemens chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-9-14-26/
David: In an alternate universe, would Ohtani have had more career value/durability if he played the outfield instead of pitching several hundred innings? With his skill set, he probably could have been an elite center fielder.
Ben Clemens: Babe Ruth is an interesting parallel, he gave up pitching because it was hard on his body, and turned into a defensive outfielder who at least our best defensive estimates of the era THINK was a decent corner outfield defender and got to play more, too. I could totally see Ohtani doing the same in an alternate universe.
mr. burrito: Re De Paula… I love the guy, but he’s had 11 ABs in MLB. So it might be a tad early to consider who he’ll replace in the post season. That said, there’s a bigger issue here: De Paula’s HR Sunday was off a 95 mph fastball. Dunno how many Dodgers have done that this year. Muncy still hit heat, but even Ohtani (probably because of injury) can’t hit a fastball this year. Is this team age or fluke?
Ben Clemens: haha yes, implied but unsaid in my previous answer... As to the fastball thing, let’s do an in-chat query for fun :: Dodgers hitters, vs 95+ velo, 2026, run value, barrel/bip, hard hit rate, whiff rate
Open on baseballsavant.mlb.comhttps://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfGT=R%7C&hfSea=2026%7C&player_type=batter&hfTeam=119%7C&hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.bunt%5C.%5C.not%7C&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_hrs=on&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on&chk_stats_velocity=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on&chk_stats_hardhit_percent=on&chk_stats_barrels_per_bbe_percent=on#resultsThat’s the statcast query, and let’s see. Muncy is tattooing fast pitches. Will Smith is too (when healthy). Ohtani’s not that bad. For context: league average barrel/bbe vs 95+ is 7.7% It kinda makes sense to me with a league average whiff rate 22%. Will Smith is at 31% barrels/15% whiffs... Muncy 20% barrels/23% whiffs... Ohtani 14% barrels/26% whiffs... Mookie is at 8% barrels 6% whiffs, lol
I’d basically say that Freeman and Pages have had big power outages against fast pitches but that overall, the Dodgers issues aren’t so simple to diagnose as a single pitch type
Diaz is being given a shot at making the postseason roster.
How he pitches will determine whether he makes it.
I have a prediction:
"If he pitches well, he will make it. If he doesn't, he won't."
Even Ray Charles can see that!
All I want for Christmas is resign Skubal And the contract for De la Cruz.
I have been a major advocate for bunting for a long time long time. But with this crew, I’m beginning to wonder if it would even matter! Giving up an out on this team is probably not a great idea. They don’t hit with runners in scoring position, period! Hell, Doc very rarely gives the bunt sign even with the ghost runner in extra innings! It just seems whatever the situation calls for, they do the opposite. One out and a runner on third? Pop up on the infield and then a fly ball to the outfield. First and second, no outs? DP, fly out. The lack of situational hitting is mind blowing! Sit back and wait on the long ball. That is RVS in a nutshell. I know he helped a couple of guys, but something needs to change. Not saying it’s his fault, not saying it’s all the hitters fault. But a new approach would be nice. And maybe a couple of new hitters who aren’t just waiting to hit 400 foot bombs, or 390 feet outs. I like line drives!
Somebody opined that Roberts couldn't "fix" Puig.... He only managed Puig in his first year. Mattingly was Puig's manager for three seasons. I have zero fond memories of Mattingly as a manager. Donnie Baseball once went about 35 straight games without a stolen base attempt. The running game can change the dynamics of a game in subtle ways, putting pressure on the pitcher. Rivals didn't have to worry about that when Mattingly was in charge. Sooo conservative. A boring brand of baseball.
I'm glad Kyle Tucker didn't bunt today. Still a small sample, but he seems to be coming to life at the right time and could shut up critics like me during the postseason. Pages is expected back soon, and then (fingers crossed) Shohei... so perhaps we'll see the lineup at full strength. Or near full strength. Who will really be at 100%? Anyway, the return of Pages to CF will also help the defense, enabling Edman to play 2B. The Dodgers still have a chance to catch the Brewers for best record, if the Brewers cooperate a bit. That said, "best record" is not as important as making sure the veterans like Mookie, Freddie, Shohei, Smith and Teo are as healthy and well-rested as possible. Perhaps de Paula can spell Teo a couple more times and show the brass whether he belongs on the postseason roster. Who would he bump? Either Call or Freeland, I think. Kike is more versatile than both, and of course his October credentials help support his case. Old Man Miggy is a reigning WS hero and has outplayed young Master Freeland all season. Yes, the Dodgers will try to "run it back" with veterans.
Hmm.... C--Smith, Feduccia 1B--Freeman, Kike 2B--Edman, Miggy 3B--Max, Kike SS--Mookie, Miggy LF-- Teo, de Paula, Call CF--Pages, Call, Edman, Kike RF--Tucker, Call, Kike DH--Shohei, de Paula
Bench: Feduccia, Kike, Miggy, Call, de Paula
This assumes folks stay reasonably healthy and that dePaula keeps producing. If not, Freeland stays.
Edman with a great bunt today. Timely!
What a run! What a great time to be a Dodger fan! Even if they don’t win every game!
In case you didn't read today's blog (and I can see some did not), here's the Cliff Notes:
"Today's hitters aren't trained to bunt much. Because bunting 95-100 mph pitching with extreme movement isn't easy. A bad bunt can result in a force play, a pop-up, or a two-strike foul."
It's harder to bunt now than ever before. High heat, high spin, 100+ MPH Pitches. It never (almost never) happend back in the day when all us OLD TIMERS started.
Dig this:
How many pitchers threw 100 MPH in the following years:
1960 - 0 1970 - 0 1980 - 2 1990 - 3 2000 -6 2010 - 19 2020 - 29 2026 - 91 and counting.
You might be a dumbass if you try to bunt a HIGH, HIGH SPIN, 100+ MPH fastball.
Things have changed. Accept and remain relevant!
I know it's not on the same level but in legion ball and junior college, we always got in 5 bunts and ran out the last one at the end of batting practice. It led to a lot of hits and runs over a season. Not sure if I ever saw and bunting practice since Maury Wills or Brett Butler.
09/17/26 Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Bobby Miller to Oklahoma City Comets. 09/17/26 Los Angeles Dodgers recalled RHP Landon Knack from Oklahoma City Comets.
The Dodgers don’t bunt because they can’t. Most attempts that I’ve seen were not impressive.
12:40 PM ET EARLY GAME
Dodgers (92-60) Reds (71-81)
SP Landon Knack R (opener) 0-0 5.87 ERA SP Brady Singer 6-14 5.34 ERA
Confirmed Lineup CF Tommy Edman S 1B F. Freeman L RF Kyle Tucker L LF T. Hernandez R 3B Max Muncy L DH J. De Paula L C H. Feduccia L 2B A. Freeland S SS Miguel Rojas R
89° Wind 7 mph Out LINE LAD -165
NO Mookie
I decided not to go to today's game for obvious reasons...
Edman dropped down a beauty today and it helped them score a couple of runs. I think the league should bunt more, bring back some old school baseball.
Per Russell Dorsey:
Execs rank Brandon Gomes as the top pick for those needing a new POBO.
From Jeff Spiegel:
Dodgers fans, don't take any of this for granted!
From 1989-2004, LA won 0 playoff games (in '04 they fell down 2-0 and then got one before being eliminated in game four)
1989-2008: zero playoff series victories.
1989-2012: just 5 NL West titles
Since? 13 in 14 years. 3 WS.
If you haven't read it in The Athletic, here it is:
"Josue De Paula is in his element in the batter’s box. He carries himself like a guy who knows his importance to the Los Angeles Dodgers depends on how well he can command himself within those 24 square feet of chalk lines. De Paula asserts himself with a confident shake of the head after each pitch outside the strike zone.
Some head shakes are more exaggerated than others. Each demonstrates the same message: De Paula is not going to give in.
“I just want to feel saucy when I’m up there, you know what I’m saying?” De Paula told The Athletic this week. “I feel like I’m in control, not you. … I want my pitch. Come in the zone. Let’s go.”
This is who De Paula wants to be. He describes hitting as “aggressive patience,” an approach that puts him on the attack.
“It’s almost like a war for me in my head,” De Paula said. “I look confident. I look saucy. I feel saucy when I’m in the box, so it’s like, ‘Hey bro, let’s keep it rocking.’”
It took four games for De Paula to inspire fascination within the Dodgers dynasty, where his every at-bat feels like a must-watch example of how to command a zone. Of the first 37 big-league pitches De Paula saw outside of the strike zone, he swung at just five. He made it 17 plate appearances without striking out before going down swinging in the seventh inning and looking in the ninth in the Dodgers’ 4-0 win over the Reds on Tuesday. De Paula does not seem fazed that he is just 2 for 14 (.143) since being called up, including five hitless at-bats in his first game in the leadoff spot.
That’s because he believes in his process. A day earlier, De Paula battled back from down in the count against Reds lefty Nick Lodolo, a former All-Star. The left-handed batter took a 2-2 fastball just below the knees, crouched and shook his head. A pitch later, De Paula walked for the fifth time in his short career.
The clip of the head shake drew a chuckle from the proprietor of the “Soto Shuffle” himself, Juan Soto, who, like De Paula, once honed his craft at the El Niche Baseball Academy in the Dominican city of Santo Domingo." https://x.com/ChadMoriyama/status/2099645883919049096?s=20
Hideo Nomo no hitter at Coors Field was 30 years ago today.
Is it a little too late to insert Tucker into the MVP conversation?
Very good article on bunting or not, Mark. As I mentioned yesterday, I believe there is a time and a place for a sac bunt as well as for a safety squeeze and bunting for a base hit. The push bunt is especially effective for a RHB versus a LHP who falls toward the third base line. Just push bunt it toward the 2nd baseman and outrun folks to first. I never see that play in pro baseball but frequently in college. I mentioned it takes the right hitter in the right situation to justify a bunt, which your little chart suggests. When struggling to score and manufacturing runs or in the late innings, I love getting runners to 3rd with one out. We all know there are more ways to score from 3rd than there are from 2nd. But your chart is pretty limited as to how many situations warrant a bunt. With that limited use, is it worth the time and effort to set up practice areas to do the dedicated work required for consistent, quality bunting? Once again, it would take the player's dedication and that will very from one player to another. We have certainly heard players say "I'm not paid to bunt". My reply is "yeah but you ARE paid to WIN"
What have they done with my dodgers!!!!! I don’t recognize this bunch!!!