Rule 5 Draft Considerations

So many of us have been looking at FA possibilities and trade possibilities that most have not paid any attention to the first date that will impact the 2020 Dodgers roster.  The 40 man roster needs to be set by November 20, 2019 with all Rule 5 eligible prospects protected. The actual Rule 5 draft will take place on Thursday, December 12, 2019. That gives AF and his staff less than two weeks to finalize the 40 man.   The next critical date that can impact the 40 man roster is the non-tender date; December 2. We can review the considerations for these decisions a little closer to the date.

I started putting this together last week, but I just have not been able to get back to it until MushersPop brought it up yesterday.  In 2017, the Dodgers protected Dennis Santana and Trevor Oaks, but last year a total of 5 players were protected; Yadier Alvarez, Keibert Ruiz, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, and Josh Sborz. But they were not done in 2019, because in addition to the five who were protected, the Dodgers added Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Will Smith to the roster during the season. Finally, Kyle Garlick, who was not protected, was also added to the roster during the season.

For those that need a refresher about the rules of the Rule 5 draft and who needs protection, below is a link to the rules per MLB.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/rule_5.jsp?mc=faq

In reviewing the current 40 man roster, the Dodgers have 38 with 2 on the restricted list; Andrew Toles and Yadier Alvarez.  Yes, Alvarez is again off the roster for some unknown reason.  I think it is time to cut the cord and move on.  I will revisit this position later in the article.  AF is going to need to make a decision as to what to do with both players. 

Currently there are 26 Dodger farm hands eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

	Player	Position
1	Stevie Berman	Catcher
2	Gersel Pitre	Catcher
3	Jair Camargo	Catcher
4	Jared Walker	LHH 1B
5	Nick Yarnall	LHH 1B
6	Jake Peter	LHH 2B
7	Zach McKinstry	LHH 2B
8	Errol Robinson	RHH SS
9	Leonel Valera	RHH SS
10	Cristian Santana	RHH 3B
11	DJ Peters	RHH OF
12	Cody Thomas	LHH OF
13	Carlos Rincon	RHH OF
14	Starling Heredia	RHH OF
15	Romer Cuadrado	RHH OF
16	Mitchell White	RHP
17	Leo Crawford	RHP
18	Jesus Vargas	RHP
19	Elio Serrano	RHP
20	Joe Broussard	RHP
21	Parker Curry	RHP
22	Shea Spitzbarth	RHP
23	Nolan Long	RHP
24	Michael Boyle	RHP
25	Ryan Moseley	RHP
26	Jordan Sheffield	RHP

From this list there are only two prospects that I would consider locks; DJ Peters and Mitchell White.    I would consider Cristian Santana and Jordan Sheffield as next in line possibilities if room could be made.  Some blogs have included as both Zach McKinstry and Leo Crawford as borderline consideration.  I think the Dodgers expose both McKinstry and Crawford.  If a team thinks they can remain on the 26  man for all of 2020, good for that player, but both are luxuries and not needs. 

Toles and Alvarez are likely DFA candidates or outright release candidates, giving Peters and White their spot on the 40 man.  If AF considers Alvarez just too valuable of an arm, he does have other possibles. Other candidates for DFA or release include Tyler White and Kris Negron who have zero options remaining.  That opens it up for two additional considerations for the 40 man (Santana & Sheffield?).  Santana was exposed last year but was not selected.  Has he really improved that much for a team to take a chance on him for the full season on the 26 man?   Three relief pitchers on the current 40 man who could be moved depending on need for space are JT Chargois, Dylan Floro, and Adam Kolarek.  One question that has to be answered by Kolarek is whether he can get RHH’s out. Kolarek is a tremendous loogy, but the three batter rule will be a factor in 2020.     

Between now and November 20, and again before December 2, is when many players are traded for that proverbial Player To Be Named Later or cash considerations to free up space on the 40 man.   

It is not too early for AF to look at 2020 Rule 5 candidates and make sure there is going to be room, so they are not blocked.  If not traded beforehand, both Connor Wong (Catcher) and Omar Estevez (2B/SS) are sure to be protected next November.     Pitchers Edwin Uceta and Gerardo Carrillo also figure to be protected.  On the cusp will be OF’s Zach Reks and Donovan Casey, but as of now they are more likely to be exposed.  One OF that does not figure to be protected is Jeren Kendall.        

Remember that while most fans are more concerned with who is on the 26 man roster, AF is a master at depth and is extremely involved in determining the entire 40 man roster.    We all have our favorites, and one fan’s 40 man list may not agree with others, or more importantly AF’s list. If I am being objective (as much as I can be), I am releasing Tyler White and Kris Negron and adding DJ Peters and Mitchell White. I would not release Toles or Alvarez until I absolutely needed to.