DON'T THROW THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATHWATER - Renovations the Dodgers need
Meanwhile, the Rockies, Angels, and Athletics have some of the smallest analytics departments in baseball. Take a wild guess at how that’s working out.
Yesterday, Levi Weaver and Britt Ghoroli wrote a newsletter titled "From Rule Changes to World Series." In part, it presented some interesting facts:
How did we get ... here?
I’m starting with an abbreviated history lesson, because not so long ago, baseball underwent a revolution.
Defensive analytics revealed: The shift might open up the opposite field, but it takes away a lot of pull-side hits and extra-base hits. Let’s do that … always.
Offensive analytics revealed: Two homers are more valuable than three singles, even if it means more strikeouts.
Pitching analytics revealed: Velo → strikeouts. Six shutout innings are more valuable than nine innings of two-run ball. Go max effort on every pitch.
And so, we entered the three-true-outcomes era, in which strikeouts and home runs (and time of game tallies) skyrocketed, and a lot of fundamental elements of the sport suffered.
Fast-forward to 2023, when the league changed the rules. They banned the shift, introduced the pitch clock, limited the number of disengagements by pitchers and slightly increased the size of the bases.
The idea was to make the game more watchable. But the talk of spring training that year was: “Who will find the competitive advantages?”
By the end of the year, some of the changes were immediately evident. But roster overhauls take years. [Checks calendar] Like, four years, maybe?Here’s where the Brewers and Rays ranked this year in a few relevant categories:
I don’t think anyone is surprised these two teams were the first to do it well enough to make it to the World Series.
So, what does all of this mean for the Boys in Blue? Well, the Dodgers aren't built that way.
They are built to SLG, which isn't as in vogue as it once was, but chicks still dig the long ball.
Outkick also had this to say:
While fans and owners complain about payroll disparities and argue for a salary cap, two of baseball’s smaller-market teams keep embarrassing their wealthier competition.
It may be something surprisingly simple: investing in smart people.
Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have two of baseball’s largest analytics departments, alongside the very wealthy — and very successful — Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ve also invested heavily in scouting and player development to find advantages other teams miss.
Meanwhile, the Rockies, Angels and Athletics have some of the smallest analytics departments in baseball. Take a wild guess how that’s working out.
Turns out, spending money still matters. It just doesn’t always have to be spent on players. Investing more off the field can lead to better results on it, too.
Someone should probably tell the Mets.
I think that within those two articles, there is also a solution to what ails the Dodgers. Now, I know some of you are thinking, "They won 100 games... why do you think they are ailing?"
Glad you asked.
Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers' record against winning and losing teams in 2024, 2025, and 2026, using MLB's official regular-season standings splits.
What stands out?
2024: The Dodgers were competitive against winning clubs and dominant against weaker teams.
2025: Their performance against stronger opponents actually improved slightly, despite winning five fewer games overall.
2026: They barely played above .500 against stronger competition while winning an extraordinary 71.3% of games against losing teams.
The most revealing statistic is that 62 of the Dodgers' 100 victories in 2026 came against teams below .500.
That's 62% of their wins, compared with approximately 48% in 2024 and 2025.
The takeaway is compelling: The 2026 Dodgers won more games than either of the previous two teams, but their success was much more dependent on beating inferior opponents.
That is a legitimate reason to question whether the 100-win record accurately reflected their strength against playoff-caliber competition.
The Renovation
There are two prongs to this renovation:
#1. I think everyone believes that the Dodgers have to get younger. Miggy Rojas and Kike Hernandez will likely not be back. Even Ray Charles can see that Teoscar will likely be traded. Alex Call is 32 but will also be gone... one way or another. My suggestion to trade Freddie Freeman to the Braves was met with catcalls and derision, but as much as I like Freddie, I still stand by that.
Max Muncy is ancient, but still playing at a high level. I think he has another good year left in the tank... especially if he works like he did last winter.
#2. The Dodgers have to change their approach. This is not just their approach to hitting, but also to pitch sequencing. Right up front, I will tell you what I think about firing the hitting coaches: NO! I think Robert Van Scoyoc and Aaron Bates have been on the cutting edge of the SLG revolution, and that they are smart and have the resources to adapt. There is nothing as constant as change and adaptation.
The same is true with Mark Prior and Conner McGuinness. The Dodgers have one of the best analytics departments in baseball, and I am certain they are already "reverse engineering" how their hitters were pitched... especially in the NLCS and making adjustments to their approaches. The same with the pitchers.
I think the Dodgers are already working on all of this, and finally, I know that Ohtani wants to pitch and hit next year. Plaschke is a moron for saying the Dodgers should trade him. Shohei has said that he would "Do whatever it takes to help the Dodgers win." That's the quote I am going to go by. Let's see what happens next season. Shohei might shine as a Right Fielder with his cannon! Just sayin'...
I elect to throw out the bathwater and keep the baby.
BTW: The Mountain Mover went to Press yesterday. Stay tuned!
Shadrack was bad, so I put him in "time out."
Discussion (50)
Disagree, not disagreeable
My suspicion is that the Brewers really hyper analyzed the Dodgers hitters - probably with AI assistance. They found flaws that they exploited. I would almost venture to guess that the next generation of baseball science is not just analytics in the Moneyball style or things like launch angle, although new tech will make that even more powerful, but in scouting opponents.
A team like the Dodgers, who were at the top of nearly every meaningful offensive category during the regular season, don't just stop hitting like they did in the playoffs, especially with RISP. The Brewers probably had AI analyze every single plate appearance by, say, Muncy, and knew exactly what he did, what his preferences were, where he got outs and on what pitches, where he got hits, off which pitches and to which part of the field, and they just had a comprehensive game plan on how to pitch him in each scenario. They likely did that with every Dodger player. They found weaknesses to exploit.
Think of the Dodgers like the Death Star - a fantastic, incomprehensible, terrible behemoth of a machine built for destruction and terror. Some plucky little rebels analyzed the plans and figured out that if you shoot a photon torpedo just right and hit a small thermal exhaust port at just the right angle, it can cause a chain reaction that would blow up the whole thing. The Brewers are plucky little rebels. They're pretty good, too.
What did Shadrack do? My dog ate the real estate tax bill. I’m sure she thought she was helping but unfortunately I still need to pay it.
“The Dodgers are built to SLG”
That’s true. And had they SLG’d, they would’ve beaten the Brewers
“ Plaschke is a moron for saying the Dodgers should trade him”
That’s not what he said. People in here continue to misquote him. What he said was the Dodgers should seriously consider trading him if he insists on pitching. I happen to agree with that. I’d give several reasons why but…. why bother?
That dog always looks drugged. Does he have access to your medicine cabinet?
Kind of embarrassing how badly we got beat. We need to take this one personally.
Confession: I always forget about Knack.
Both Mookie and Tucker played well into September. They will be productive next season. I believe the Dodgers should hang on to Teo until next season. If both he and someone like DePaula or any other youngster were playing well, the market for Teo before the trade deadline would be at his peak. He can go DH somewhere, only part of his salary left to play so all other 29 teams will be in play. If he is having a decent season the return would be better than this winter because only certain teams would take on his contract. DePaula looks like he’s on his way to stardom but we seen that show to many times when a prospect flames out. Fortunately, the Dodgers have more than a copy of players that could step in. I’d love to see Muncy have a nice season while Morales plays his ass off and the Dodgers feel comfortable that Morales or another player from the farm can step up and play third base. A concern is for a backup catcher. The Dodgers should address the middle infield and get more arms for the pen. Add a backup catcher and we are ready to win 3 championships in four years.
I’d sign Luis Arraez on a short term deal - 2/3 years. I value BA. Let him man 2B for a few years. He’d be affordable snd could lead off with JDP hitting second.
Gotta try and mix out run production up a bit.
Freeman won't be traded to the Braves simply because he is a first baseman and they are totally committed to Olson. Freddie would not be happy as a DH and LA has no replacement at this point for him. Former Dodger, Todd Benzinger passed away at the age of 63.
The old adage is "Hammer the lower teams and break even with the strong teams". That works for division wins, but not in the playoffs where all the strong teams end up. I agree with Mark, Dodger coaches are "Semper Gumbi", always flexible. They will fix it, but the team needs better defense, more speed and better contact hitters. Not sure the contracts in place will allow that but there are a few 2B on the FA market that fit the bill. Then getting Sato from Japan to spell and eventually replace Max in 2028 (if there is a season next year), would be a step forward. I know most in this site dislike Kim, but his elite defense and speed would be an asset. Freeland's numbers should improve and a switch hitter always has value. I hope they both work on their hitting over the winter and prove it in spring training. FA's Arraez, Lowe or Chisholm would also fill the 2B gap. Despite Chisholm's attitude, he has the speed and defense we need. Of course moving Mookie to 2B and promoting and buying a SS is an option. Just some thoughts.
Rojas, Kike and Teo should not be on the roster next season. Replacing them with JDP, Freeland and Kim will reduce the age factor considerably. Same for team speed. Replace Call with Tibbs. A lineup of Ohtani, DH Betts, ss Freeman, 1b Tucker, RF (I expect a big bounce back season) Pages, CF Muncy, 3b Smith, c JDP, LF Freeland, 2b
bench: Rushing (Fiduccia until Rushing is back), Kim, Edman, Tibbs
will do the job.
Would think about trading Glasnow IF the Dodgers will resign Skubal.