Random Thoughts
1. Dodgerpatch indicated that I was taking the criticism of Austin Barnes too personally. Not true. I would never take criticism alone personally. What I take personally is the name calling. A week ago I stated that Barnes had option(s) remaining and that he should be considered to be optioned to OKC, and bring up Will Smith to get better acclimated to the pitchers. When the name calling started, I
1. Dodgerpatch indicated that I was taking the criticism of Austin Barnes too personally. Not true. I would never take criticism alone personally. What I take personally is the name calling. A week ago I stated that Barnes had option(s) remaining and that he should be considered to be optioned to OKC, and bring up Will Smith to get better acclimated to the pitchers. When the name calling started, I started to defend Barnes more than I normally would have. Why is it so personal for me? Because no matter how many family members are told to stay away from these sites, too many family members hop on to see what people think of their son, grandson, brother, nephew, cousin, or best friend. It may not be healthy, but it is realism. Earlier in the year, we learned that Alex Verdugo’s brother visited this site.
Nobody on this site other than me knows what it is like to be a father of a professional baseball player who has been ridiculed because of his play. Fans aren’t fickle? Well then explain to me how my son was given a standing ovation at Fenway and then 15 days later gets booed out of the stadium. Why? Because the ball slipped out of his hand on a rainy night on a throw to the plate, and a run scored on the error. I know that it’s baseball and it happens. I accept it, but I do not have to like it. So Patch, yes I do tend to take the name calling personal. Because it was personal to me.
Should Barnes go back to OKC. Yes. Not because he is a black hole, but because he has lost his confidence. I hope he finds his confidence in OKC, and gets traded to a team where he can get a new start. Maybe he can land in Detroit and start all over, and get a chance to work with the up and coming pitching stars like the M&M boys – (Casey Mize and Matt Manning), and Franklin Perez. Now I am done with any further commentary about Austin Barnes. It is time to turn the page and worry about the name on the front of the jersey rather than the name on the back of the jersey.
2. We are all so quick to take what a couple of OKC Dodgers are doing in the PCL and proclaim them to be future stars. I am not taking anything away from what Gavin Lux and DJ Peters (or Will Smith) are doing in AAA, but the results need to be placed in context. Going into Friday’s games, below are the offensive numbers for the PCL (AAA), International League (AAA), and Texas League (AA).
# of batters with a BA .300 or better:
Pacific Coast League – 30
International League – 12 (only 2 above .325)
Texas League – 4
# of batters with 20 or more HRs:
Pacific Coast League – 23
International League – 13
Texas League – 0
# of batters with a 1.000 or better OPS:
Pacific Coast League – 6
International League – 0
Texas League – 0
# of batters with a .900 or better OPS
Pacific Coast League – 31
International League – 15
Texas League – 0
While Gavin Lux and DJ Peters are off to tremendous AAA starts, one has to temper that with what the League is – a launching pad. Let’s also not forget the remarkable start of Dustin May. In 4 games started, Dustin has 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 0 HRs, 7 BB, and 18 K. With the offensive numbers indicated above, May has been fantastic. He will certainly get a look at the ML rotation next year.
3. I wanted to look at the impact of Gavin Lux and DJ Peters. Lux and Peters were promoted to OKC on June 27. In the 65 games, that Lux and Peters were Tulsa Drillers, the team was 42-33. They average 5.815 runs per game. Since the promotion, the Drillers’ record is 12-15, with the average number of runs per game at 3.222. It is clear that Lux and Peters were a positive force for the Drillers. Lux more so than Peters, but we can look at that in more detail at a later time.
What has been the impact of the duo with OKC? The OKC Dodgers’ record before Lux and Peters arrived was 31-46. In those 77 games, the Dodgers averages 4.532 runs per game. In the 26 games the Dodgers have played since the promotion, the team is 17-9, and is now averaging 7.923 runs per game. While baseball is a team game, it certainly looks clear to me that OKC is a different (better) team with Lux and Peters.
4. While Thor would be a good addition, if the Dodgers are going to spend prospect capital, then AF should spend it on a closer. Two years ago when his cutter was not only unhittable, it was also thrown for strikes. Unless he throws perfect innings, teams are going to run on him at will. If the team is going to be unemotional towards players, and only look at results, then Kenley has to be moved from closer. Again, if we are only concerned about how the player will perform in the WS, then there has to be strong consideration for a new closer. In the last 2 WS, Kenley has 2 saves, 3 blown saves, and one loss. Friday’s game is becoming to be more common than the lock down performances of 2 years ago.
5. Mitchell White may be about to take a big drop in the Dodger prospect list. Another bad night in AAA. His ERA is now at a sparkling 7.35. His numbers are 52.2 IP, 12 HR allowed, 23 walks, 53 strikeouts, and a .318 Batting Average Against. He is looking like a younger Brock Stewart than a can’t miss prospect. And yet another two hit night for Gavin Lux and another HR for DJ Peters.
AC’S MINOR LEAGUE LOWDOWN
OKC Dodgers 10 – Memphis Redbirds 13 (Cardinals)
The Dodgers jumped out to a 3-1 and 6-3 leads, but Mitchell White had a horrific outing: 4.0 IP, 12 hits, 11 runs (all earned), 3 walks, and 2 strikeouts. His ERA is now up to 7.35. He allowed the first 6 batters to reach base to begin the 4th. He left 2 runners on after 4 had scored, and Shea Spitzbarth came in and allowed both inherited runners to score, plus one of his own. Stetson Allie allowed another run and Zac Rosscup and recently promoted (today) Victor Gonzalez restored order. Gavin Lux had another two-hit night, his fifth consecutive game with two hits. Zach Reks also had a two-hit night including his 16 HR, while DJ Peters and Shane Peterson each hit their 10th.
Tulsa Drillers 1 – Frisco RoughRiders 5 (Texas)
Tulsa had another bullpen game as reliever Logan Salow started with 1.2 IP. Parker Curry followed and allowed all five runs on 8 hits in 5.1 IP. Jordan Sheffield pitched a clean 9th. The Drillers scattered 5 singles with Zach McKinstry getting two of them.
RC Quakes 7 – Stockton Ports 0 (A’s)
The Quakes pitched the third shutout for the night. Michael Grove pitched his second consecutive 3.0 innings of shutout ball. However he did allow 5 hits and a walk in his 3.0 innings. Dylan Floro pitched a scoreless inning in a rehab assignment. Guillermo Zuniga, Max Gamboa, and Melvin Jimenez finished the shutout. Jeren Kendall with 2 hits and 4 RBIs, including his 12th HR and Hunter Feduccia and his 2 hits were the offensive leaders.
Great Lakes Loons 1 – Dayton Dragons 0 (Reds)
The Loons and Dragons went 9 scoreless innings. Leonel Valera started on 2nd to begin the 10th and moved to 3rd on a ground out, and scored on a Kody Hoese sac fly. Stephen Kolek (6.2 IP) and Aaron Ochsenbein (2.1 IP) were brilliant for 9.0, and James Bruihl closed it out in the 10th for a shutout victory and his 2nd save. The Loons had 7 hits with Dan Robinson had 3, and Chris Roller hit his 12th double.
Ogden Raptors 9 – Orem Owlz 5 (LAA)
In the first game of the 2nd half, the Raptors started as they finished the 1st half, with a win. The first half winners won in convincing style with a 31-7 record, which tied with the best half record in a half in the Pioneer League. The last and only other team were the Orem Owlz 10 years ago. Down 1-0, the Raptors rolled off 6 runs, with the Owlz scoring 3 in the 5th to get close. The Raptors then scored three additional runs to close out the scoring. Brandon Lewis and Andrew Shaps led the offense with 3 hits each. Lewis hit his 6th HR. Ryan Ward had 2 hits, while Zac Ching hit his 2nd HR. Alfredo Tavarez started and allowed 4 runs in his 4.2 IP. Jeff Belge pitched a hitless 1.1 IP with 3 K’s. Nick Robertson allowed the 5th run, and Corey Merrill finished the final 2.0 innings to secure the victory.
AZL Dodgers Lasorda 1 – AZL Rangers 4
Israiky Berroa allowed 1 run in his 5.0 IP, while Adolfo Ramirez went the next 4.0 scoreless innings. The two teams entered extra innings all tied up at 1-1. Franklin De La Paz yielded 3 runs in the 10th and the Rangers blanked the Lasordas in the 10th. Wladimir Chalo had 2 of the 4 Lasordas hits.
AZL Dodgers Mota 6 – AZL Mariners 0
The Motas scored 2 runs each in the 1st, 4th, and 7th, while three Mota pitchers (Aldry Acosta, Jeisson Cabrera, and Huei-Sheng Lin) pitched a shutout. Luis Yanel Diaz had 3 hits including 2 triples (8), while Kevin Aponte also had 3 hits and a triple (1). Diego Cartaya had another 2 hit night including a double (8).
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Discussion (148)
Disagree, not disagreeable
General questions (with my silly answers) for the others here. Please feel free to add more:
1. What are the percentage chances the Dodgers win the World Series?
2. What impact would acquiring a top-end closer (say, as a hypothetical, Vazquez) have on that percentage?
3. What impact would acquiring a medium-end closer (say, as a hypothetical, Diekman) have on that percentage
4. True or False, the best way to increase the chances of winning a World Series is to get there as many times as you can?
MY ANSWERS:
1. About 40%
2. 5%, tops.
3. 2-3%
4. True
I’m just curious on what it would take to get Vazquez? I believe he has three or four more years of control. With Kenley having an opt out next year and declining skills, this is an area of great concern. Would Ruiz, Joc, Gonsolin and Beaty get it done? It is becoming very clear what is needed to win a championship. Which parts are we willing to sacrifice? I would love to hear from some on what they think it would take.
I was watching the game last night, and had the sound off, as I sometimes do. Ninth inning, and Jansen gets two quick outs. Then he gives up an opposite field single to Turner with two strikes. I expect Turner to steal second, because it is common in that spot, to avoid the force play, and with no one holding the runner on. So as I watch the pitches to the next batter, I see the yellow baserunner icon has moved to second, as I expected. Then I look away for a moment, and I see that the icon has moved to third, and there is a shot of Turner laughing. I think, why would he steal third base? Well, maybe no one was there, and he figured, might as well. Seemed strange, though.
Then after the game, I read that Jansen intentionally balked, so to get him off second base. This is the second time he has done that this year. He is so worried about the runner stealing signs, that he cannot stand to have him on second base? This is not a good psychological place to be for a relief pitcher. Then he hits the next batter. Then that runner steals second, so he’s got someone else on second base, but he can’t purposely balk, because that lets in a run. So he walks the next batter. Now bases loaded, still someone on second base. He’s can’t intentionally balk to get him to third. He walks the next batter, throwing ball four a foot over the catcher’s head. Still bases loaded, can’t balk on purpose. Finally gets the last out, after at least one gift strike. Now, I have never heard of a pitcher intentionally balking, until Jansen. And as much we admire his courageousness in dealing with a difficult medical issue, and his determination, this is not good, independent of how he is pitching. Every time he has a runner on second base, he is going to balk him to third? Or only if he has a run cushion? This is definitely not where your closer’s head should be. Pitch the ball, get the batters out, stop obsessing about whether someone might steal the signs. You are going to have to pitch to batters when there are runners on second base, unless you are capable of pitching a clean inning, which apparently you are not at this stage. Other closers, Vazquez, Will Smith, Yates, Chapman, others, often pitch a clean ninth inning with a one-run lead. It is how championships are won. We haven’t had that capacity for two years, and we need it. Five days to try to get it.
AC, you brought up the inflated AAA stats, so a few questions for you:
1) Even though DJ Peters has some amazing stats so far in AAA, the biggest surprise is that his strikeouts seem to be lower. What did he change? Or is it just more confidence now that he’s having more success?
2) How good can Dustin May be if he’s dominating in an inflated offensive league??? Sounds like AAA is like playing all games in Coors Field, so it really says a lot about May
3) Perhaps we should throw Jeren Kendall into OKC as well?? joke
4) So in the minors, when the game gets to extra innings, a runner is place on 2nd base to start an inning. Does anyone know how the stats work in the minors when it comes to extra innings? Who chooses which runner goes to 2b to start the inning? Is it the hitter who’s supposed to lead off that inning? If a runner is on 2nd with nobody out, and the first hitter sacrifices him to 3rd, and the 2nd hitter grounds out, scoring the runner from 3rd, does that run count against the pitcher? Just curious
I have been a Smith supporter and I have always liked Barnes over Grandal. Catcher value has to start with defense and go from there. I liked Barnes and Smith’s speed. For me, Barnes kept swinging hard, too hard. Others have changed their stance, their swing, how much they choke up on the bat, but Barnes always seemed to keep everything the same regardless of the results.
I would like to see Barnes backing up Smith sooner than later but after Barnes has a chance to work on things on the driving range.
A couple of years ago I defended Mattingly by saying he was better at winning wars than battles and I noted that he stopped getting so angry at umpires and stopped arguing so much. Last year I defended Roberts when too many were calling for his head. Likewise, I have defended Pederson for the last 4 years because while he disappointed us, he was never as bad as too many described in here. I also backed up MJ many times during the time this site went black and most here were on a site that allowed politics crapola on it.
More times than not instead of blasting a player I instead offer them up in trades to get me past their failings but most of those trade scenarios were in the dull off-season. Sometimes I offered trades to counter Mark’s trades that I didn’t agree with.
I don’t see Lux being brought up unless there. Is an emergency. There was an article about Trayvon Robinson a few weeks ago. He stated that after the Dodgers traded him to Seattle he was brought up right away. He felt things were moving to fast and didn’t feel ready. If there is one thing this front office doesn’t do is rush players.
No room for name calling for sure, but an objective analysis and comment about what the Dodgers should and shouldn’t do from a passionate fan base perspective is fun and entertaining. It’s not meant for the “truth of the matter” but instead it’s just an opinion, a hunch, or a belief . Perhaps some of us get too emotional and others a bit too entrenched in trying to prove they are more knowledgeable than others. As MT says we can agree to disagree but we don’t have to be disagreeable.
Without name calling or putting a label on anyone it is apparent KJ is not the pitcher he once was and the FO needs to acquire quality. I’m OK with anyone not named May or Lux to get this done. I’m a bit worried our vaunted depth is getting a bit thin. Is Hernandez OK? If he has to go on the IL with CT3 and Freese I’m concerned this may force a lot of playing time without rest for Muncy, JT, Belli, Joc and Seager and will result in some poor defense, extended innings etc.
Boy how has baseball changed? First inning, bases loaded and a 3-0 count to AJ after Sanchez already walked a few and I think threw 7 straight balls. He gets a green light and hits a small comebacker to the pitcher. Yes, it was a strike and yes he should have sent the pitch into the stands, but in my 50+ years of watching and playing baseball I would think he would have taken at least one strike. Sanchez then goes on to pitch masterfully and get 22 in a row out. Boy has baseball changed!
AC, not all of us are so quick to take what a couple of OKC Dodgers are doing in the PCL and proclaim them to be future stars,I think there are many who post on this site that know a great deal about major league baseball and how talented these 750 players are, only the less knowledgeable or the ones that have no idea of the special skills it takes to play the game at this level are the ones who revert to name calling and the disrespect they show for the players. Jansen is fast becoming my number one concern.
When is Dave Roberts going to figure out that Pollock needs to be platooned with Joc in the outfield.
Pollock vs righties .198/.261/.368/.628
That’s worse than Austin Barnes overall numbers.
It seems like most of us (myself included) who were sure we didn’t want to include Gonsolin in any trade earlier in the season are now ready to do so. The reason? He’s having a very mediocre year at OKC. Unfortunately other teams look at box scores and have scouts out there. His trade value has dramatically decreased as has White’s.
If we don’t want to trade May and/or Gray (and I’m one of those who doesn’t), most of our better pitching trade chips are in the lower minors. That may not get us Vazquez and based on last night, we desperately need him.
Whomever we get a reliever from might be very happy to have us include Sheffield going back. He’s having a very nice year, he’s now officially a reliever and, of course, very controllable. I expect he probably won’t be with the organization by August 1st. I also expect Peters and Downs to be with other teams by Thursday.
MLB pipeline updated their rankings:
10. Lux
35. May
36. Ruiz
57. Smith
Dodgers specific list: Josiah Gray up to 5th, Mann jumps in at 18, Hoese debuts at 8th, Busch at 10th, J Lewis at 20, Pepiot at 21, new int’l singing Luis R at 25
I sincerely hope Austin Barnes recaptures his confidence in OKC. He’s a quality catcher and, at one time, he hit well. I have rooted for his success since he was drafted by the Marlins. I’m always partial to hometown players, and with AB being a Riverside boy, I naturally followed him. I was aware of him in HS, at Arizona State and afterwards.
I don’t know how much it is related, but I have also noticed that several of the Dodgers, Joc, Kike and AB started on their slumps after they had gotten married or had their 1st child. It’s a simple solution, but maybe they just weren’t getting as much sleep. Just a thought.
Yep, no way do you trade Lux, May or Smith right now for a closer because they all have a chance to help the Major League team down the stretch. For me, anyone else is up from grabs.
I was thinking about Thor and my initial thought was I would trade May in a package for him. Then I looked a little deeper into Thor’s stats and found that he’s performed worse than Maeda and Stripling. We are very spoiled indeed.
5 more days and everyone is getting stir crazy, or just plain crazy. I can’t wait for these next few days to be over.
Doc’s post game interview was telling last night. He did not look like a guy that just beat a playoff contender on the road to take game 1 of the series. The bullpen and the injuries are probably really getting to him.
Watching Joc on the field and on the bases, I felt melancholy knowing his remaining time with us is limited.
I fully trust that AF will get a piece, or two, or three before the deadline. Orel made a good point during the broadcast yesterday stating that there’s going to be a windfall coming and we might be well positioned to come away with multiple pieces. Not that there’s a lot of room to improve, but there’s going to be some guys available that no one has thought of.
My Wishlist Update
Closer Type – Incomplete
Lefty Reliever – Incomplete
Right Handed Bat – White? Not was I was hoping for
Smith Callup – Complete
So, what’s the real plan with Tyler White? Is he just a band aid until Freese is back, or is he something bigger? I love how he look like Muncy’s twin. Let’s hope he hits like him.
I can see a scenario where Lux plays 2B down the stretch. I’m wondering if they’re just waiting long enough to pause the clock so he doesn’t reach free agency a year early.
I still think the best overall alignment at this point is with Joc/Kike in LF and Belli at first. But, it sure was nice having Verdugo in LF for yesterday’s game.
I’m pulling for Barnes to get his bat together in the minors. I sill find him valuable as a backup catcher. Baseball is a funny game. Sometimes guys figure it out much later than others. There’s talent in there, something is getting in the way of a consistent bat.
I wouldn’t count Barnes out yet. He’s always hit at pretty much every level, including his first year in the Majors. Sometimes players lose confidence, the pressure and expectations overwhelm them and it becomes difficult to recover. I can see Barnes as the back-up catcher to Will Smith next year and he may thrive in that role. As to the PCL numbers, I’m not sure it matters. Alex Verdugo is hitting as well as he did in AAA, but with more power. Lux can flat out hit, Peters has unbelievable power and I wouldn’t be surprised to see May as one of the starters next year. All that being said, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Ruiz included in a deal that gets the Dodgers what they want (Vasquez). Roberts was clearly unhappy with the way Jansen finished last night, two walks and a hit batter, all with two outs. It was like he lost focus. Maybe that creates more urgency to make this trade. But I wouldn’t include May or Lux in any deal. I think a package of Ruiz, Gonsolin, one or two lower level prospects gets the deal done.
Back in the Spring of 2010, when the Dodgers released Jason Repko, I wrote something to the effect of “It’s about time.” His father took me to task and told me that I had no idea how hard he worked and all the rehab he had to go through. I apologized and have not been so cavalier with condemning players. AC has a unique perspective in that he had a son play MLB and he knows how cruel fans can be. Jason Repko’s dad had a perspective few have. Alex’s Brother still posts here from time to time, but I won’t tell you who he is. He doesn’t post under his surname.
I have also learned that when players look their worst not to throw in the towel. They often figure it out on their own or with the help of coaches. I think Kenley is evolving and he does not have complete confidence… yet. I think he will get there, BUT the Dodgers do have to cover their bases. It’s not a sure thing that he will figure it out. Rivero, I mean Vasquez is the best closer out there and he will be expensive. The Pirates are going to ask for Ruiz and Lux. I think Lux, Ruiz, and Gonsolin would win the prise, and while I really don’t want to give up any of those prospects, I really would not include Lux… and I would not include Downs or Gray. Ruiz is going to be great, but I can do that. The Dodgers might include Barnes in the deal as well. NO WAY DO I TRADE MAY. He made great strides last year and has gotten even better this year. He’s for certain a #3… maybe a #2!