Reviewing Class A players and projecting is very premature, but it does get done. That is why so many A level and even rookie level players are included on Top prospects lists, only to fall out later. The most difficult jump in professional baseball is from A Ball to AA. So there is a lot of guessing that goes on with these evaluations. Depending on the age, it is doubtful that players who do not perform well at A+ will probably not be projected to succeed at the ML level. For the Dodgers, 14 of the MLB Pipeline Top 30 play at A+ or below. Three have not yet played in 2018; Morgan Cooper (#20), James Marinan (#21), and Ronny Brito (#26). Cooper did not play last year, so he is listed as Inactive as he has never been assigned to an affiliate. I look forward to watching both this year, as they both project to be mid rotation SP.
RANCHO CUCUMONGA
This year the offense is far and away the better prospects than the pitching. The top pitching prospect is 20 year old 6’ 6” 180 lb RHSP, Dustin May. May has both looked good and not so good at RC, but he is working on adjustments made by Dodger development personnel. His scouting report:
May has taken well to a number of adjustments that the Dodgers have had him make. They had him shift from a four-seam fastball to a two-seamer, which sits at 89-92 mph and reaches 94 while generating a lot of groundouts with its run and sink. He threw both a curveball and a slider as a high school senior with little differentiation between the two breaking balls, so Los Angeles had him focus on a hard curve that also elicits grounders and should become a solid offering.
Though his changeup is in its early stages and is too firm at this point, May shows some aptitude for the pitch. For a pitcher who’s just growing into his tall frame and works with a stingy delivery, he throws a surprising amount of strikes. The Dodgers love his pitchability and competitiveness, and if he adds more velocity once he gets stronger, they could have a No. 3 starter on their hands.
I see May being pushed to AA next year, and from there, we should have a clear picture as to whether he is a legit mid rotation starter. IMO, May should not be included in any trade package for a rental. He has enough positive potential and pitchers like that are invaluable. Also IMO, May is a better prospect than Grant Holmes was. The remainder of the year will determine if I am blowing smoke or not.
Questionable but hopeful prospects in the top #30:
Jordan Sheffield (17) – 23 year old 5’ 10” 190 lb RHSP – Former supplemental 1st round from Vanderbilt. Sheffield has one plus plus pitch (fastball) and two plus pitches (slider and change). Jordan’s problem is his lack of control. A second negative is his size. It has been suggested that Sheffield’s best option is to relieve where he could really focus on the fastball and slider. Jordan has not had a strong game yet this year. Sheffield went on the DL on May each 98, but is relatively straight and hittable. He is working on changing to a 2 seamer so he could hopefully elicit more groundballs. Player Development has not given up on him starting, but it may be in Sheffield’s best interest to relieve.
Imani Abdullah (18) – 21 year old 6’ 4” 205 lb RHSP – Former 11th round HS draft selection given an above slot bonus. This is a strategy the Dodgers have been using. Draft a HS player in 11th round and give them savings from the top ten draft picks. The last three years it has been Abdullah, AJ Alexy, and Jacob Amaya. After 72.1 innings in 2016, Abdullah pitched a total of 12.1 innings in 2017, and a total of 8.0 so far in 2018. He is once again on the DL (since 05/03/18). The organization knew they were going to have to put in overtime to develop Abdullah, but as he fills out his frame and the development team can help him adjust, they are hopeful that he will project to a back end rotation pitcher. It is also just as likely that they will have Abdullah concentrate on two pitches and control and try him in the pen.
Time is running out – 23 year old 6’ 2” RHSP Andrew Sopko – Former 2015 7th round draft pick out of Gonzaga. Sopko looked like a rising prospect when in 2016 he was promoted to AA as a 21 year old. He did not pitch poorly at Tulsa in 2016, and he was again assigned to Tulsa for 2017. Both Sborz and Sopko pitched poorly in their respective 2nd go-rounds at AA. Sborz returned to AA but as a reliever and has already been promoted to AAA, while Sopko was assigned back to RC. He has pitched relatively well. In 66 IP, he has a 3.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (T5 in Cal League). He has 66 K and 14 BB. I hope he gets promoted back to AA this year.
22 year old 6’ 3” 180 lb Dean Kremer – Former 2016 14th round draft pick out of UNLV – I still consider Kremer somebody to continue to follow because in 50.1 IP he has a WHIP of 1.17 (4th in Cal League) and 74 K (1st in Cal League). Both Sopko and Kremer probably have a ceiling of middle relief, along with reliever turned starter Tony Gonsolin.
Offensively there have been some very good performances. Perhaps the most promising performance has been exhibited by 20 year old SS, Gavin Lux – Former 2016 1st round draft choice out of HS. Lux was hot and cold in his first full year at Great Lakes in 2017, and he started 2018 going 1-20. I do not believe anyone has been harder on Lux than I have, and I do not mind saying that it looks like I may have been wrong. I still like Bo Bichette, but Lux does not look to be a bust I thought he was headed for. Lux was considered a plus offensive player at his draft (one of top HS bats in all of draft), and he is proving that. Here are Lux’s 2018 numbers to date:
BA – .307 (#8)
OBP – .392 (#8)
SLG – .476 (#10)
OPS – .868 (#9)
Hits – 58 (Tie #6)
Runs – 34 (#6)
2B – 14 (T #6)
3B – 3 (T #9)
RBI – 28 (T #13)
SB – 7 (T #16)
BB – 26 (T #4)
Defensively he has soft hands, and while he has a strong arm his mechanics need to change for him to improve. He is considered perhaps too stiff to become a good ML SS, but he deserves the chance to continue his development at SS, but I think ultimately he will become a 2B.
Perhaps the second most eye opening season has been from 22 year old 3B Rylan Bannon – Former 2017 8th round draft choice out of Xavier. He hit well at Ogden (Rookie League) last year, but has really seemed to establish himself at RC this year. Here are Bannon’s 2018 numbers to date:
BA – .294 (#12)
OBP – .382 (#10)
SLG – .572 (#5)
OPS – .955 (#5)
Hits – 55 (T #11)
Runs – 32 (#7)
HR – 12 (#3)
RBI – 35 (T #3)
BB – 27 (T #1)
Like Lux, Bannon has potential holes in his 3B defense. He has also been utilized at 2B, and that could be a potential position switch. Bannon is not on the current Top 30, but I think he makes the mid-season list. He has really opened eyes and has moved Cristian Santana to 1B more regularly. I am hopeful that Bannon might get that promotion to Tulsa to see what he can do. It is time to push both Bannon and Lux.
Former Top 30 prospect and former 2015 International signee from Matanzas, Cuba is Omar Estevez. Estevez is repeating his 2nd year at RC, but at 20 years old he is much too young to give up on, and I cannot understand why the organization picked up so many utility players when Estevez could be that person. Estevez is a natural SS, but is playing mostly 2B and backing up Lux at SS when he has a day off. His ceiling is probably that of a middle infield utility player, but again at 20 maybe he can still improve to become a regular, but at 2B not SS. Estevez is amongst the Cal League leaders in doubles (15 – T #3), and RBI’s (30 – T #10). I think Estevez finishes the year at RC, but should get a promotion to AA as a 21 year old in 2019.
Another top catching prospect (#14), is 22 year old Connor Wong – Former 2017 3rd round draft choice pout of University of Houston. Wong has been favorable compared to Austin Barnes. As Mark has suggested, Wong could be considered to make a transition to 2B to take advantage of his potential bat. He was a former starting SS at Houston as a Freshman before going behind the plate. Another factor in his possible transition to 2B is he is 6’ 1” 180 lbs, and there is concern that he can become an everyday catcher. Offensively, Wong has been at the top of the Cal League leaderboard in a number of areas.
SLG – .543 (#7)
OPS – .880 (#8)
HR – 11 (T #4)
Since he has only been catching for two years, he still needs more work behind the plate working with pitchers, and improving his receiving and throws. He has a CS rate of 26% this year, so it is not like he is starting at zero. It is projected that Wong’s floor is as a quality utility player who should be able to play all over the field (including catcher), and hit with power. It may take a little longer for him to fully develop, he is someone to watch grow and improve.
The greatest enigma in the entire organization not named Yadier Alvarez could be 22 year old CF Jeren Kendall – Former 2017 1st round draft pick out of Vanderbilt. Kendall is a natural CF who can flat out fly. He has tremendous range and takes good routes to make him even more gifted in CF. He has a plus arm, but not a cannon. Nothing close to Verdugo. If Kendall can learn how to better recognize pitches and make consistent contact, he could be an All Star CF, and become the best Dodger CF since Willie Davis. If not, he could become a Cameron Maybin. He is a prodigious base stealer. He is tied for 3rd in the Cal League with 20. What gives many hope is that while he continues to strike out too much, he is tied for 4th in the Cal League in walks with 26. I think he will continue to get pushed up the organization, and should be at Tulsa next year.
Cristian Santana – 21 year old 1B/3B international signee out of San Cristobal, DR. Santana burst on the scene last year at Great Lakes slashing .322/.339/.460/.799. I started to follow Cristian while he was in the DSL, but I started to write about him last year at Ogden and then GL. He has tremendous bat speed, but as we can tell by his near identical BA/OBP at GL, there is not a pitch that he will not swing at. He also has a tendency to overswing. He is one of those international players that needs time and experience to better recognize pitches and recognize his strengths. He can more than adequately defend at 3B, but has been playing more 1B allowing Rylan Bannon to play more at 3B. Cristian’s bat will be his ticket, and he shows that his bat is live and he should continue to grow. I think Cristian is another who will be pushed next year. I will continue to follow him as he progresses.
Relievers who should continue to get some attention:
Zach Pop – 21 year old RHRP – Former 2017 7th round draft pick from Kentucky
Logan Salow – 21 year old RHRP – Acquired from Oakland for Wilmer Font – Former 2017 6th round draft pick also from Kentucky.
Darkhorse – 24 year old RHRP Michael Boyle – Former 2015 13th round draft pick from Radford
Still time to impress, but more likely organizational depth:
Donovan Casey -22 year old LF – Former 2017 20th round draft pick from Boston College
Cody Thomas – 23 year old RF – Former 2016 13th round draft pick from Oklahoma
Saige Jenco – 23 year old RF/CF – Former 2016 14th round draft pick Virginia Tech
Discussion (44)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Verdugo in center and Bellinger back at first.
I don’t see Kershaw opting out after the season and absolutely no reason the Dodgers give him an extension.
Forsythe should be fined $1,000.00 every time he lets a first pitch strike whiz by. I’ve learned to really dislike him. Trade him already.
huge HR by Puig!
Garcia can be sooo good but he kind of reminds me of fields. You know if he is in there long enough somebody will homer.
Actually, I do think it was nerves. Let’s see what he does the next round.
Much better 2nd inning. And nice double . Good for the kid. Now hopefully is better relaxed.
Maybe he can’t pitch, but he can hit!
I’m actually impressed with his stuff. Suspect it’s a combination of nerves and Coors.
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Agree Mark that Cody would have made a difference in the first inning.
It looks like Dennis Santana is not quite ready for prime time.
With Cody at 1B, the score is 2-0 and the Dodgers are out of the inning.
Have the odds just increased that Kershaw will NOT opt-out?
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And if Kershaw does opt-out, what are are the chances that the Dodgers pursue him vigorously him this offseason?
DODGERS PLACE CLAYTON KERSHAW ON DL
RECALL BROCK STEWART FROM TRIPLE-A OKC
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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today placed left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw on the 10-day disabled list with lower back strain and recalled right-handed pitcher Brock Stewart from Triple-A Oklahoma City.
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Kershaw, 30, who will be making his second stint on the disabled list this year, made the start in yesterday’s contest against the Phillies, allowing one run on four hits and striking out five in 5.0 innings as he was taken out of the game with lower back discomfort. The southpaw has made eight starts this season going 1-4 with a 2.76 ERA (15 ER/49.0 IP) and has held hitters to a .233 average, while striking out 53 against just 11 walks in 49.0 innings.
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Stewart, 26, who will make his fifth stint with the big league club this year, has appeared in five games (two starts) with the Dodgers this season, posting a 4.61 ERA (7 ER/13.2 IP) and has struck out 11 against six walks in 13.2 innings. The right-hander has made five starts with Oklahoma City this year, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA (5 ER/21.2 IP) and has struck out 22 batters against just eight walks, while limiting the opposition to a .208 average.
Rumour Dodgers’ AAA reliever C.C Lee to exercise his escape clause and return to Taiwan to participate in the CPBL draft. Lee posted a 3.91 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 41 strikeouts over 25.1 innings this season in the Triple-A.
AC, I was watching a spring training game on a back field in March and overheard a Brewers scout tell the Dodgers coaches the pitcher should be on the fast track to the majors. Is was Zach Pop. I approached the scout and asked him about Pop. He said Pop should be an MLB middle innings reliever by 2020. Just passing this along…
I guess the rotation is now Wood, Stripling, Buehler, Santana, Stewart. Hill, Kershaw, Maeda, Ryu, on DL.
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The bullpen might best be fixed by adding Hill and Maeda. Ryu should return and send the least productive starter to the bullpen, or replace Wood if the team really wanted to strengthen the bullpen. Kershaw will probably return in time to keep Buehler’s innings below 180 including playoff innings. I think the Dodgers have sufficient pitching resources. Pitching could be improved yes but not mandatory.
Another interesting read at The Athletic about Stripling:
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Ross Stripling has found an unusual path to success by deferring to the data
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“I don’t care about average,” Stripling said. “I just want to know where he pulls the ball at 100 mph. I’m a believer in limiting slug, which is basically limiting exit velocity.”
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This being 2018, Stripling is not unique in that regard. He knows other pitchers do the same, probably some in more advanced ways. He knows that hitters will catch up, perhaps whenever the long-discussed virtual-reality machines are able to simulate specific pitches and render a pitcher’s first time through the order more like his third.
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There’s more obviously.
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And elsewhere, Jayson Stark has this thought starter:
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“The Dodgers,” says one rival exec, “are going to win that division by seven games.”
As a follow up, Lux reached base all four of his PA last night with 3 hits and a BB. He hit his 15th double and 5th HR. Lux went Rickey Henderson by hitting the first pitch in the 1st inning for a HR.
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Rylan Bannon reached base 3 out of his 4 PA with a single and 2 walks.
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In 48 games this year, Lux has failed to get on base in only 7 games, and one of those games was as a PH. In those 48 games, Lux has hit safely in 35 games. He is the primary leadoff hitter for the Quakes. I think both Lux and Bannon should be pushed to AA this year.
AC
Another thorough report about the farm, thanks for your hard work, although I know this is something you love to do, and that shows up with every report, you do!
Lux appears to have made the most strides. Our pitching appears mostly hype with may a possible survivor. If you have pitchers who haven’t played for 2 years why? No real stars in the group and their record supports that as they are not very good. I just don’t see much strength in this system with Great Lakes even worse. Thanks for the report. Maybe somebody will step up.
AC, do you have reports on whether Toles has soft hands? Is he a player in the Bill Russell and Dave Lopes mosd that could be converted to second base?
Great job AC. My pick to click is Dustin May and Player-of -the Year Rylan Bannon. He is No. 29 on MLB Pipeline and oddly enough behind Donovan Casey. I expect both to play with the Drillers at some point this year.
Thanks again AC. Kendall would be an awesome CF in LA. Lux could well be the plug that fills the second base hole. I was surprised to read that Lux has soft hands but is a little stiff. I was thinking a person with soft hands would also be loose and relaxed.
Great stuff, AC. Your insightful posts are always much appreciated.