Julio Urias: Elite Starter
Clayton Kershaw was called up to the Show in 2008 at the age of 20. In 107 IP, he allowed 109 hits, struck out 100, with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.495 WHIP. Of course, he went on to build a Hall-of-Fame Career! Julio Urias was called up to the Show in 2016 at the age of 19. In 77 IP he allowed 81 hits, struck out 84, with a
Clayton Kershaw was called up to the Show in 2008 at the age of 20. In 107 IP, he allowed 109 hits, struck out 100, with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.495 WHIP. Of course, he went on to build a Hall-of-Fame Career!
Julio Urias was called up to the Show in 2016 at the age of 19. In 77 IP he allowed 81 hits, struck out 84, with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.455 WHIP. Now, after injury and other BS, he is 23 years old and finally ready to take up where he left off.
Julio Urias has pitched parts of 4 seasons in the Bigs, where he has a 3.18 ERA, 1,283 WHIP and in 184 IP has struck out 187. The Dodgers were treating him with kid gloves when he had a shoulder injury that caused him to miss parts of two seasons. He’s barely more than a rookie, but he’s mature beyond his years and has the repertoire of an Ace. The good news is that his shoulder suffered no structural damage.
Urias’ repertoire and usage thereof is extremely advanced., even at 23. His fastball is plus and will sit at 92-95 while touching 98 MPH. It can be fairly straight, but Urias generally commands it down or below the zone and to both sides of the plate. He generates lots of ground balls when he’s not catching hitters looking on the corners or blowing away the ones who struggle with velocity. The heater is complemented by a plus low-80s curveball and an 82-85 mph changeup that is consistently above average. Urias’ usage of his repertoire is just as impressive as his pure stuff. You’ll see him back door and back foot the curveball to right-handed hitters, pitch backward with it to lefties and rarely leave a secondary pitch hanging in a place where it can be punished.
On many teams, Julio would profile as an Ace, but he’s not needed to do that in LA. He’s going to start the season as the Dodgers Number Four Starter. I would say that he’s likely the very best number four starter in all of baseball. Dodgers.com, Ken Gurnick reports this today:
“It’s Julio’s time to make that jump and be a starter,” manager Dave Roberts said. “The challenge for Julio is to sustain it all year long. I think that that’s where the maturity has to come into place and, you know, the weight room and obviously stuff on the field matters, so it’s the consistency that we’re looking for from him.”
The Dodgers went from having high expectations for Urías to not knowing what to expect. Here’s what he expects from himself.
“If this season they give me the opportunity to really go out there and just pitch,” said Urías, “I feel like this year is the year I can really take off. I feel it’s a really important year for my career.”
Urías has not had the luxury of flying under the radar. “Expectations” could be on the back of his jersey as well. He was signed by Mike Brito on his 16th birthday while the Dodgers were pursuing Yasiel Puig, debuted at 19, underwent surgery on his shoulder capsule at 21 and throughout has had his innings limited — first because of his youth, then because of the injury.
A left-handed native of Mexico with poise and advanced off-speed pitches, Urías was compared with Fernando Valenzuela. Left-handed and hard-throwing with a repeatable delivery, he was compared with Clayton Kershaw. In 2016, MLB Pipeline ranked him the top left-handed pitching prospect in the game.
Then came the speed bumps, including Minor League demotions that he now concedes crept into his head and left him wondering if each Major League appearance could be his last.
“Sometimes you carry that into the game with that thought in your head that you’ll be gone after that game,” he said. “Last year I started focusing on controlling what I can control and being locked in and [showing] that confidence on the mound, as well.”
Last year, following his 20-game suspension, Urías wasn’t fit enough to handle a starter’s role down the stretch. Ultimately, that left the Dodgers to start Game 4 of the National League Division Series with Rich Hill, who was pitching with a torn elbow and lasted only 2 2/3 innings.
Fast forward, and Urías is being slotted into the fourth spot of the rotation, behind Kershaw, Walker Buehler and David Price, and ahead of the cattle-call competition for the fifth job — even though he’s averaged only 44 2/3 innings over his seven professional seasons, including 81 2/3 last year.
He understands he’s in this position in part because of his talent, and in part because so many expected so much.
“I’m proud that they compared me to those players,” he said. “You look at someone like Kershaw, one of the best pitchers of his generation. It’s something that makes me proud to have that expectation. There’s a reason they have me here, and I’m going to try to make my own career.”
His domestic violence issue last year was BS and that is all I am going to say about it in our politically incorrect society. He had to play along. It’s over… move on. There’s nothing to see here. Julio is not THAT guy!
I would love to see the Dodgers use a six-man rotation this season. I think it would be perfect for everyone involved, especially Kershaw, Price, Buehler, Urias, and Wood. Keep their innings at about 160-170 and be fresh for the playoffs.
Some fans think Urias would be better in the bullpen because he has a better ERA as a reliever. You never take a pitcher who has four elite pitches and put him in the pen unless there is some underlying reason. Starters are much rarer and more valuable than relievers and you would never move Julio to the bullpen unless Doctors or his own lack of control dictated that.
He is equally effective against RH or LH batters and has good control for someone so young. Since his fastball is very straight, it is important that he locate it properly to set up his other pitches. I hear that he is working with the pitching coaches to get more “bite” with his fastball. If they are successful in doing that, he’s your 1A!
I know some of you are skeptics, but Andrew Friedman refused to include Julio Urias in many potential trades. You are about to fund out why. It’s a BIG WHY!
Photo credit: Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodger News
- Tony Gonsolin will start Saturday’s Game and Alex Wood will start Sunday’s game. Let’s see if they can go 2 innings!
- I believe the Dodgers are television all the Spring Training Games this year. Last year some of the first games were not televised. The only ones not televised are split-squad games, but you may be able to get the other team feed.
- I buy the MLB TV Package and use https://www.hidemyass.com/en-us/pricing so that I can see games even when they are blacked out.
- I continue to be a big fan of this pitching staff. I think they will find 13 excellent pitchers… I just can’t predict who they all will be.
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Discussion (66)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Gosh, I did not realize hat it was time for exhibition games. Seeing that took me back for an instant to when I was a boy, and I would be so excited to hear Vin Scully and Jerry Doggett announce the first games. And each day, the Dodgers played another team, from another Florida locale. And since there was no interleague play, it was exciting to hear all those famous American League players in the game, even if they only played a few innings. And I would have lunch in the kitchen, and put on the radio and listen, even if my parents thought that I should be outside playing, and not listening to the whole game. When the Dodgers finally would leave Florida and go to Arizona, it was not as exciting, I was ready for the regular season to start. It is rather strange, I can still remember whole lineups from teams from when I was ten or eleven, maybe because I would play wiffle ball in my backyard, and bat from the side the player hit from, even though I have no ability to hit lefthanded. Those were great days in baseball, and I loved the pennant races involving all the teams in each league, and not the five-team divisions.
Segueing, the O/U on Dodgers season wins is 102.5, with the under being the favorite at -140. The Yankees are also at 102.5 at even money on both sides. I think the next highest in our division is Arizona at 90.5 or so. If indeed we are the class of the division, we of course want the best record in baseball, but the regular season games will also have an element of figuring out how best to approach the playoffs. Obviously, what it takes to win a 162 game season is not necessarily the same as what wins in the playoffs; witness last season, with 106 wins and then two playoff wins. So as others have intimated, we need to find our top three pitchers, the guys who will be able to match and beat the aces of the other playoff teams. You can never count on hitting in the playoffs. Washington won because their starters were great in the playoffs.
So where does Urias fit in? I heard all the hype from when he was 16. He has not lived up to any of it yet, but obviously he had arm surgery. I am sure that he is talented, we need to see him pitch significant innings to see if he can sustain it. Hopefully, he can. The starting staff is the biggest concern, because you do not really need aces in the regular season if your team is deep and talented, but you need them in short series playoffs. You know, as good as we look to be, and I am quite excited about it, if Buehler were to get hurt, we could not even get into the World Series. Every team has some injuries, and you just have to hope that it is not to you r best players. In my opinion, outside of Buehler, we have no ace, we do not have anyone to match the best #2s out there, unless Kershaw somehow gains another 3mph or so. Last year, he lost game 2, and cost us the win in game 5. I know that he felt very bad about it, but we all did.
So that is what I think is most important in the season: trying to find three starters who can match up with those of, say, Washington, or St. Louis or Atlanta, and then likely the Yankees’ hitters, if not staff. And then whether Graterol can be really good, and whether Treinen can come back to earlier form. If so, we will be really good. The individual games do not excite me as much as they might once have done, maybe that is mostly because all those wins last year, all those amazing comebacks, evaporated in a five-game NLDS. But I do agree with Mark that potentially, this is one of the great Dodgers teams, though no one should ever minimize how good the 1963 team was, simply because of superb pitching. Probably 1962 was our best team, but Koufax got hurt around late June, and when he came back in September, he could not recover his earlier form until the next season. Maybe if Alston had pitched Drysdale in relief in that last game, we would have won, and we would definitely have beaten the Yankees in the World Series. But here we are now, missing all of those players, and certainly Scully and Doggett, but ready for another season. The acquisition of Betts has made this much more exciting than it was looking like it was going to be.