If you have not checked out www.TheAtheletic.com (it’s a pay site), you should. It’s got some great writing. As an example, Peter Gammons wrote a great piece yesterday:
“Want a parade? The surest way to get one is to rebuild the right way. Here’s how it’s done”
I can’t reproduce the whole article here, because of the paid content, but Gammons starts here:
When baseball unraveled the draft and international signing rules in 2012, the goal was to give smaller markets better access to the best talent. The idea was to limit teams to assigned signing pools, so that big market clubs such as the Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees couldn’t draft players in later rounds, players who would ordinarily be high picks if they weren’t committed to college, and entice them to reconsider by signing them to big, early-round money. In 2007, for instance, Boston selected highly-regarded Anthony Rizzo in the sixth round, paid him well above the suggested slot to buy him out of his commitment to Florida Atlantic, and signed him.
Even with all the good intentions, the larger signing pools for the teams with the worst records (and, hence, the highest picks) invited cheating. The same has happened in the International market, and two teams — the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves — have thus far been punished for various violations. Tanking is now a part of the sport’s lexicon, even as Pablo Sandoval homered on the last day of the season to cost the Giants the first pick in the 2018 June draft.
The last three world champions have been won by teams that hit bottom, were razed and rebuilt. Quietly, the Royals, under Dayton Moore, did it in a small market with budgetary restrictions. From 1994 to 2012, the Royals had one winning season, got high draft picks and selected players such as Eric Hosmer, made critical trades, won 86 games in 2013, followed with 89 as they went to Game 7 of the World Series in 2014, then won it all in 2015.
Theo Epstein and Jeff Luhnow took over the beleaguered Cubs and Astros, respectively, in the fall of 2011. The Cubs won 61 games in 2012. Last place. Then they won 66 in 2013, 73 in 2014, and 97 in 2015, advancing to the National League Championship Series. Of course, in 2016 they won 103 games and the World Series that was baseball’s V-E day, bringing Eddie Vedder and George Will to a like moment in time, place and belief.
The Astros lost a combined 218 games their first two seasons with Luhnow running the show, improved to 70-94 in 2014, then made the post-season in 2015. In 2017, they lifted hurricane-devastated Houston by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7 of the World Series.
Gammons talk about the many different teams who have or are rebuildng by “blowing it up” like the Padres, White Sox, Red Sox, Cubs, Marlins, Royals, and the latest darlings – the Astros. He concludes:
The rebuild concept sounds good and logical and promising, and you can hand out free copies of Baseball America to everyone coming through the turnstiles. But what the Royals, Cubs and Astros did took time, took creativity, took a lot of investment in scouts and infrastructure and coaching up and down the organization. Study the Padres. They’re doing it the same way.
Conspicuously absent from that article are the Dodgers who have rebuilt another way. They did not tank or blow it all up. They tried to buy their way out while building the farm and infrastructure in some innovative and incredible ways. THE TRADE has been argued by many to be part of that plan, but you already know how I feel about it. Whether or not THE TRADE was a boom or a bane doesn’t change the fact that no team in recent history has rebuilt “on the fly” while winning the division all the while, like the Dodgers.
Part of that “tanking process” gets you one of the TOP 2 or 3 players in the amateur draft every year for two or three years. That’s what the Cubs did – so did the Astros, but the Stros did botch a couple of years drafts, like when they took Mark Appel over Bryant in 2013 and Brady Aiken over a player like Kyle Schwarber, Can you imagine Schwarber and Bryant on the Stros? Where would the Cubs be without Bryant?
It also takes some luck and the Dodgers go lucky with Chris Taylor and a couple of others. Truly, what the Dodgers have done and are doing is re-loading while winning, not re-building. Will it work? It has until now… and I think it will continue. The next few days hold a lot of promise. I can see the Dodgers packaging Alex Verdugo, Joc Pederson, Jordon Sheffield, Yadier Alvarez and Matt Kemp, along with $28 million to the Marlins for Christain Yelich, Brad Ziegler and Starlin Castro. The Dodger would then have to trade Castro or Forsythe to remain below the Luxury Tax Threshold.
Matt Kemp would entertain the fans with some Home Runs. Ziegler is a comeback candidate (when you are 37 years old, it’s likely hard to play for a team like the Marlins). Yelich would be the new Left-Fielder and Castro would likely start at 2B. He is a candidate to get into better shape and under Ward, he could be a force. The next few days will tell the tale. Dream about this:
- Taylor CF
- Seager SS
- Turner 3B
- Bellinger 1B
- Yelich LF
- Castro 2B
- Puig RF
- Barnes/Grandal C
Discussion (69)
Disagree, not disagreeable
1. If FAZ gets Yelich the outfield starters will be Yelich, Taylor, and Puig. I still want Yelich.
2. If the Dodgers trade Forsythe and get Yelich the outfield will be Pederson, Yelich, and Puig.
3. Pederson needs to lose weight and Puig probably does as well.
4. Kemp, Taylor, and Hernandez could be the outfield against lefties if Puig fails to hit lefties again.
5. The Dodger bullpen is loaded for the playoffs and more than adequate for the season.
6. One of Pederson or Toles should be productive enough. Which is still the question.
7. Verdugo, unless traded, will spend half the season in OK.
8. The rotation will get innings from Kershaw, Wood, Hill, Maeda, Ryu, Buehler, Urias, Stewart,.
9. The Dodgers still do not have to do anything and still win the WS.
If the roster stays the same as it is today: Pederson will most likely platoon with Hernandez in left. Most are optimistic that Taylor will repeat his offensive game, but that is not a certainty hence they will keep Pederson. If Pederson starts hot and Forsyth comes up with his typical injury then Taylor or Barnes goes to second enter farmer with kemp and Toles in left. I think Toles and Verdugo will start in Oklahoma City with the current roster, Toles proving healthy after long layoff with Verdugo getting more at bats and it’s the easiest scenario. Hernandez can play any outfield position and most infield positions so he will be busy. If Barnes is not the everyday catcher and Forsythe struggles with righties again Barnes may get a lot of reps at second. We really need for Taylor to be the offensive player that he can be. He will be fine in center and maybe really good. If kemp had the right attitude and work habits he could really help. My guess is he won’t but he could play 6 innings and turn it over to Hernandez etc. and hit 25 homers with 80 rbi if healthy. The way Roberts manages he could probably keep him healthy. I look for ryu to be good, Hill hopefully has conquered blisters, wood solid, Kershaw healthy. Maeda well 5 inning 5th starter, big addition by subtraction in McCarthy, hopefully 30 starts between Urias,Stewart, and Buehler. I think the pen is solid, Garcia is good, Baez will be useful, liberators hopefully healthy, cingrani and Avilan are good, Koehler can help maybe big, Stewart or Buehler could end up the righty setup at the end. The dodgers are definitely very good now without any moves. They made some of their moves last year getting cingrani, giving Buehler and Stewart experience in high leverage situations, giving farmer opportunity, so the dodgers just need to be hungry when spring training starts and healthy and they will be very good. They can then evaluate as to what they need at the trade deadline.
Last year when the teams talked about Dozier, they wanted Bellinger.
I agree with MJ on Pederson. Trade him. When he does nothing to improve in 3 years, he needs to go . AC, you cannot bring up 4 rookies (Beuhler, Verdugo, Urias, and Santana) in 2018 and expect to win. Four rookies in one year? Now, if you are going to give them extended playing time at the major league level on 2017, then I will agree with you on 2018. Not at AAA.
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If you want Yelich, then you need to trade Verdugo, Joc Kemp and Toles. They will be blocked. I am not against that trade with adding a minor league player or two. In fact, I would like that trade. Will Miami like the trade? If I was Miami, I would want 4 good farm kids, Verdugo and Toles. That would be my asking price. The Dodgers can keep Joc and Kemp. The Dodgers are going to stay under the luxury tax regardless what we think.
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Our biggest problem, in my opinion, is the bull pen, not left field. Maybe these young arms in the minors can fill some of those positions. In fact, I have always been a strong believer this is the best way to break in a good minor league pitcher. Let him throw one year in the bull pen, and if successful, make him a starter next year.
Dozier to the Dodgers – Kemp and whatever to the Twins
1 – I generally agree that the team can’t stand pat. Entropy happens. But – the luxury tax is a real thing and they’re not going to go above it. So, how do they make improvements without getting taxed?
2 – Everything that I read says that the Fish don’t really want to trade Yelich and that it will take a significant overpay to get him. The Dodgers won’t do that.
3 – Any of Toles, Kike or Joc could break out in 2018 (or Verdugo). i don’t think that the Dodgers address the OF unless they need to do it at the trade deadline.
4 – The biggest issue right now isn’t the OF, but the bullpen. Tom The Faucet probably isn’t the answer. Who pitches the key innings after the Dodgers get their typical 5 inning start next year? El Gasolino? Chicken Strip? I am high on Cingrani right now but no one else floats my boat.
5 – They probably win the Division again with what they have but they will need to stock up for the postseason. Last year they did it and came within a game. It was the 1st time that they made a big splash at the deadline in my opinion. The Braintrust knows that they can win it all and will make the move at the Deadline when they know where the biggest holes are.
Does anyone know if MJ is a fan of Joc Pederson?
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Asking for a friend.
With Peters, Kendal, Heredia, and Diaz in the wings and Pederson, Puig, Hernandez, and Taylor with at least a full year of experience, there seems FAZ may not have to keep Verdugo and Toles for depth.
Dodgers trade Grandal, toles, Alvarez, Verdugo,farmer,Santana,(p) for Castro, Yelich, and Realmuto.
I have said before most teams do not have enough good catchers. We have two good ones at the major league level and four good prospects. Some of these may be used in trades.
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I have always liked the versatility of the Dodgers. Taylor, JT, Forsythe, Barnes, and Bellinger can all play different positions. That is why the Dodgers making sure these young catchers can play other positions. None of us know how good Toles is going to be. He has shown signs he can be very good. Another picking off the scrap pile by FAZ. I do not think FAZ will do much this spring. They will wait until July to see what there needs are when it is much clearer. Maybe we can find another Taylor, Morrow or Bellinger from the farm system.
If the Dodgers think Yelich is the answer to their left field situation for the next 4 or 5 years, then they have the players to make the trade work for both teams. If the Dodgers also wanted to include Realmuto, then I think they are looking at taking on the contract of Starlin Castro, as I think Miami would make sure Castro is part of the trade. If that were to happen then maybe the Dodgers are going to try and include Barnes, Wong, and Forsythe in the deal. Dodgers getting Realmuto would mean Grandal would be traded, maybe to Washington for Wieters.
Kemp to the White Sox sounds good ( anywhere sounds good ) but not for Shields, unless the Dodgers like AC, said, they move him and money which I’m not sure they can.
If the White Sox took all of Kemp’s contract and included Matt Davidson ( he can backup first base ) then the Dodgers can just DFA Shields if they can’t find a buyer.
I don’t see an email address anywhere, so I’ll ask here: can i get my five-year-old Dodgers blog listed in the dashboard on the right? It’s http://linkmeister.com/dodgers/
We share at least one commenter, I see from those above.
Christian Yelich is on the verge of becoming a BIG TIME PLAYER!! If we can get a 26 year old stud on a great contract, we need to offer them Verdugo and Alvarez, as well as some other stuff (Joc). He solidifies centerfield for the next 8 years. He’s got the bat control closer to Seager than Bellinger, so he’s a legit #2 type hitter.
I also preferred Ozuna, as he’s a big time power right handed bat, but oh well. Yelich would be a very very pleasant fallback option
It seems to me that Alvarez is thrown into a lot of deals around here. I admit to having never seen him throw a pitch, but based on what I’ve read, he’s someone I would be very reluctant to throw into a deal. Forgetting his Rancho stats from 2017, he did, as a 21 year old, manage a 3.55 ERA at AA Tulsa, even while walking 25 in 33 innings. Teams hit .234 against him, and he averaged 9.82 K’s per 9. It appears to me that his biggest problem is command, which is not all that unusual for a 21 year old. It may well turn out that Alvarez never amounts to anything, but his is the kind of arm I want to stockpile, especially if Kershaw decides to exercise his option after 2018.
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If the Dodgers are serious about re-building through their farm system, then I think trading a talent like Alvarez would be short-sighted.
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Mark and I disagree about THE TRADE, but I am in total agreement with him that the Dodgers are in no way cheap. Now that the Dodgers have a long pipeline of talent that they can depend on, they will be less likely to commit to expensive long term deals that just tie their hands in the long term. If anything, the Dodgers are willing to flex their financial muscle where they consider it to be prudent, and patient enough to keep their powder dry until the right opportunity presents itself.
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Mark, do you literally mean the next few days. I don’t expect any deals until after New Year’s, and fully expect that things could play out well past that. I see the Dodgers as a pretty safe bet to win the division, which means there is no particular urgency to do anything before the mid-season trade deadline. I think most of us know that teams generally look a lot different at the end of the year than they did at the beginning. Just think about the 2017 Dodgers who began last season without Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor and Brandon Morrow.
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I don’t know what Christian Yelich’s power potential is, but I do think that Cory Seager is a candidate in the next several years, maybe even this coming year, to hit 30-40 HRs.
If Boston does not sign Martinez there is maybe a slim chance they might give Kemp a chance. After, they did sign Sandoval.
I think Vegas mentioned the White Sox as a potential landing spot for Matt Kemp. I have always thought that the ChiSox were a good place for Kemp. He will run into more pitches as a DH in a month than Matt Davidson will for the full season. The only bad contract that the ChiSox have is James Shields. He carries a $1M additional AAV for 2018, but is off the books for 2019 after a $2M buyout. Maybe Kemp, Rob Segedin, Ariel Sandoval, & Michael Ahmed for James Shields. The White Sox have a lot of young pitching prospects so it is unlikely they would want lottery pitching, but if they do, the Dodgers have plenty.
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The Dodgers could then move Shields and cash, or Ryu and no cash. They could also have all of their prospects if they did want to go after Yelich if they wanted to.
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I also would not mind expanding a trade with the ChiSox for Yolmer Sanchez. The Dodgers could include Forsythe, and additional prospects, including Gavin Lux and Edwin Rios, pulling back Ahmed. So Kemp, Segedin, Sandoval, Forsythe, Lux, Rios for Shields and Sanchez.
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While I recognize that none of these ideas will come through, as long as nothing is happening anywhere, they are still fun to think up.
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David Hood is a very good analyst when it comes to prospects. He just came out with his 21-25 prospects for the Dodgers. I was pleasantly surprised to see Devin Smeltzer at #25. I wrote an article on him during the year, and I still believe he could be a good starting pitcher (back of the rotation), but could be an outstanding lefty reliever.
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I am also really looking forward to see the maturation of James Marinan #24. He could be a very good mid rotation prospect.
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I am happy to see that Hood agrees with me that Sborz (#23) will probably best be served going back to the bullpen, but that he has to want to. He will not be a Dodger if he wants to be considered a starter, but he could be a solid setup prospect.
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Conner Wong at #22 will give the Dodgers 4 catching prospects in the top 21. Catchers who are also infielders are becoming the prototype catcher for the Dodgers.
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It is great to see my sleeper of 2 years ago, Caleb Ferguson #21, start making his climb to the Dodgers rotation. This year at Tulsa (AA) will be a very big step for him. I do expect him to pitch well as he has the last two years.
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https://www.truebluela.com/2017/12/29/16830392/dodgers-prospects-2018-caleb-ferguson-connor-wong
Couldn’t agree more with Mark’s last comment, regarding Dodgers being cheap. Felt like responding earlier but held back. But, my discription would be they are
(smart yes) also, wise, frugal focused, committed, systematic, visionary and full of common sense. Cheap, no.
Yelich (Verdugo, Oaks, Thompson, Ryu)
Taylor
Seager
Turner
Bellinger
Puig
Pederson
Barnes
I did not go back and look it up, but someone said the “Dodgers are cheap.”
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Nothing could be further from the truth. The Dodgers are smart! Signing Free Agents to big contracts doesn’t mean you are “not cheap.” It means you are generally ignorant. Ignorant, this front office is not.
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If Machado and/or Harper get $300+ Million, the Dodgers will not sign them… not because they are “cheap” but because they are smart.
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It’s possible the Dodgers end up with Stanton if the Yanks sign Harper or Machado. Stanton wants to be in LA and it still could happen. Nothing about the Dodgers is “cheap.” Everything is about “smart.”
I don’t see Yelich as a big upgrade over what the Dodgers have in LF. Marginal upgrade at best. Certainly not so much so that I would give up all of that. I’d pay Harper next year and keep my assets. FAZ’s MO is to not pay guys on the wrong side of 30 big money. Harper will be 26 when he hits the market. I would have no problem giving him 10 years. I’m not doing 12 like some have suggested, but I would pay him for his 26-35 years. Had the Dodgers done the Atlanta deal sooner I wonder if they would have ponied up for Morrow. 2 years for $18 million seems half way reasonable in today’s bullpen market. Rockies are putting together a super pen to try to win.
Non baseball comment.
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I noticed when my phone had logged me out of the site, I could comment but it would not show up.
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Perhaps that might be one of the issues when comments don’t appear
With the market for closers in the 17+/yr range and set up men (Morrow) at 10+/ would a hard throwing, back of the rotation starter with 2+ pitches ask to switch to the pen?
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Yes, Morrow may end up as the closer but I don’t think that was the original intention when he was signed
It would seem that Holland wants a deal over $50 million and if he gets one the team who signs him will have to cough-up a draft pick likely in the 30-40 range.
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What kind of players have came out of the 30’s?
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2008 – Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery
2009-James Paxon
2010 – Noah, Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez
2011 – Jackie Bradley, Jr.
2012 – Stephen Piscotty, Joey Gallo, Lance McCullers, Jr.,
2013 – Aaron Judge
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It’s just plain dumb to give up those picks.
Now it appears that the Rockies will be signing Wade Davis. Who is going to get Holland?
I read the Always Compete article just as I sat down to relax with a bloody mary last night. I’m not up-to-speed on all the identifiers, but understood the concept of the article… Always Compete did a good job at grabbing my attention, but according to Captcha, I’m not a robot…so I may be beyond this whole sabermetrics grasp to begin with. After that I read the next article about the parade, which I also enjoyed…and when Kemp was mentioned, I drifted away into a skit where he plays polar opposite Puig using Lightsabermetrics. (Ever try to get a bison with a Light saber in and out of a dugout 9 times?)
I’ll let you know how that turns out…If I survive! Hey Matt!! This Way!!
Haven’t heard from Idaho Elwood after a record 21 posts a couple of days ago. I wonder is he is back in custody. 😉
Mark, I don’t see Kemp in Miami as long as Mattingly is the manager and as far as entertaining the fans, I’m sure his defense will be more than entertaining.
I like that trade idea, but the dodgers wont get Yelich or castro. Marlins won’t take kemp they want to cut payroll. The dodgers are going to keep pretty much everyone except kemp. The dodgers will sign and setup guy for Jenson. They won’t go and harper, manny, or any of the other free agents next year. They don’t want long and very expensive contracts. Their going to stick with their prospects and young talent. The Dodgers are cheap, They won’t do any big name trades or give up prospects. I’m a dodger fan and i hope they go and sign harper. But the yankees, cubs, or philly will get him.
This lineup seems to me that it would look better and more balanced, and it could be reality …
Taylor CF (R)
Seager SS (L)
Turner 3B (R)
Bellinger 1B (L)
Puig RF (R)
Yelich LF (L)
Castro 2B (R)
Grandal C (S)