There are currently 38 Dodgers on the 40-man roster without consideration of either Yasmani Grandal or Hyun-jin Ryu accepting their respective QO. With the current makeup, the Dodgers will have a salary total of nearly $179MM or approximately $27MM under the 2019 competitive balance tax threshold. We will all know no later than Monday, November 8 at 2:00 PM PT if either accept. Assuming they do not accept, below is the makeup of that roster and their respective and projected salaries. There are currently 7 under contract, now that Chase Utley has been released to facilitate his retirement. There are 13 due arbitration. The arbitration salaries are projected by MLBTradeRumors who have been consistently very close to forecasting the arbitration values. Finally, there are 18 players that are under club control. The combined projected salaries for those 18 is $4.55MM as reported by Cots Contracts. The projected $179MM also agrees with the projected 2019 salaries per Cots Contracts.
| Player | Position | Options | Salary | |
| Contract (7) | ||||
| Clayton Kershaw | LHSP | 31.000 | ||
| Matt Kemp | OF | 20.000 | ||
| Kenley Jansen | RHRP | 16.000 | ||
| Rich Hill | LHSP | 16.000 | ||
| Justin Turner | 3B | 16.000 | ||
| David Freese | 1B/3B | 4.500 | ||
| Kenta Maeda | RHSP | 3 | 3.125 | |
| Arbitration (13) | ||||
| Yasiel Puig | OF | 11.300 | ||
| Alex Wood | LHSP | 3 | 9.000 | |
| Joc Pederson | OF | 3 | 4.300 | |
| Chris Taylor | Utility | 1 | 3.200 | |
| Kike’ Hernandez | Utility | 1 | 3.200 | |
| Corey Seager | SS | 3 | 2.600 | |
| Tony Cingrani | LHRP | 2.700 | ||
| Josh Fields | RHRP | 1 | 2.800 | |
| Tom Koehler | RHRP | 2.000 | ||
| Pedro Baez | RHRP | 2 | 1.800 | |
| Erik Goeddel | RHRP | 0.900 | ||
| Yimi Garcia | LHRP | 0.900 | ||
| Zac Rosscup | LHRP | 0.800 | ||
| Club Control (18) | 4.550 | |||
| Austin Barnes | C | 1 | ||
| Ross Stripling | RHP | 2 | ||
| Scott Alexander | LHRP | 2 | ||
| Max Muncy | 2B/1B/3B | 1 | ||
| Cody Bellinger | OF/1B | 3 | ||
| Andrew Toles | OF | 2 | ||
| Julio Urias | LHSP | 1 | ||
| Pat Venditte | SRP | 1 | ||
| JT Chargois | RHRP | |||
| Brock Stewart | RHSP | |||
| Dylan Floro | RHRP | 1 | ||
| Walker Buehler | RHSP | 2 | ||
| Kyle Farmer | C/Utility | 1 | ||
| Dennis Santana | RHP | 2 | ||
| Caleb Ferguson | LHP | 3 | ||
| Alex Verdugo | OF | 2 | ||
| Rocky Gale | C | 3 | ||
| Tim Locastro | Utility | 2 | ||
| Other | ||||
| Player Benefits | 14.500 | |||
| Matt Kemp to SD | 3.500 | |||
| Kenta Maeda Incentive | 3.000 | |||
| Chase Utley (just released) | 1.000 | |||
| Current Projected Salary | 178.675 | |||
| Amount Under Competitive Balance Tax | 27.325 | |||
| Competitive Balance Tax Threshold | 206.000 | |||
As I see it, there are three players who could be moved in a trade to save some dollars: Yasiel Puig ($11.3MM), Alex Wood ($9MM), and Joc Pederson ($4.3MM). That is $24.6MM that could be moved. I would project at least Wood and one of Puig or Joc is an almost certainty. All three could be if Harper is in fact a possibility. I would be shocked if he were, but at least there is a way financially to make it happen.
I also submit (and continue to do so), that the team does NOT need both CT3 and Kike’. They are both utility players that could play 2B. Or CF, or LF, or SS, or 3B. By moving one, that would save another $3.2MM. If super utility players were the way to go, then the Dodgers should be all in on Marwin Gonzalez. But you all know that is not how I roll. I like a more static lineup with ONE super utility player filling on all over the field. It is waaaaaay too easy to like both players, and I do. I have no preference as to which one I would choose if I were in charge.
We also must take into consideration that there have been reports that the Dodgers might be having some liquidity issues. They do have pending litigation with both Security Beneficial Life and the Cuban ballplayer issue. Also, one of the Dodger owners only cares if the Dodgers win because it will mean additional revenue. Todd Boehly only cares about his Return on Investment. He is the primary force behind keeping the Dodger salaries below the luxury tax. Did they get below the luxury tax threshold last year because they wanted to be in a position to spend this year? Or did they get below the threshold because that is what they advised their potential investors? And by the way, why are they looking for investors if there is not a liquidity crunch? Does it all turn around in four years? There are certainly enough questions being asked to make one think there is something amiss.
As shown above, the Dodgers can shed nearly $28MM from their current projected payroll, making them nearly $55MM south of the competitive balance tax threshold. But will they spend it? If so, where will they spend it? Would they want to spend that on Bryce Harper? Is that enough? The Dodgers will not be in play for any of the other “high cost” free agents. Andrew has already gone on record to say that Corey Seager will be ready next Spring as the Dodgers SS. That pretty much ends any speculation that Machado will become a long-term Dodger. I do not see the Dodgers being in play for Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Josh Donaldson, or AJ Pollock. They do not need another LHH OF so Michael Brantley will not be considered. I do not see them in the market for any of the top FA relief pitchers; Craig Kimbrel, Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, or Cody Allen. Will they be in the market for any of their next tier relievers; Brad Brach or Jeurys Familia or Joe Kelly? They have the financial wherewithal to do so but is it in their plans to go with FA or with their homegrown talent? Do they consider Nathan Eovaldi? As a starter or reliever? He seems destined to Houston or Boston as of now. We know Friedman is a believer in his players, so I am thinking that the Dodgers will scour the waiver wires to fill in where he believes the Dodgers need help in the pen. I still think the Dodgers can WOW Texas to get Jose Leclerc. Twins LHRP Taylor Rogers should also be a target.
The Dodgers can shed payroll and still be favored to win the NL West. The DBacks and Giants are telling all that will listen that they are doing a tear down. The Pads are at least one year away. Making only the Rockies pretenders to their crown. Winning the NL West really should not be much of an issue, and if that is their goal, then by doing nothing they should win the NL West for the 7th consecutive year. But is that enough to win the pennant much less the WS? It is going to get exceedingly more difficult to beat the Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, and maybe Cardinals (with their pitching) and Nats (with their pitching), and potentially the Mets (with their pitching). And they are already behind the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros.
Financially the Dodgers are in a good place to pick up strategic FA players, or go all in on one, Bryce Harper. They have the minor league talent to make trades for a catcher, 2B, or CF. They have the ML talent to get minor leaguers to replace the talent they may move to get a catcher and/or CF. Jean Segura is available for 2B. Will the Dodgers trade some of their prospect capital to acquire him? I have been an Ender Inciarte fan for at least three years. I would love to see him in CF in Dodger blue. Yes, I very much value defense. Andrew and Alex worked well last winter. Can they do it again? There are enough FA 2B to sign one or give it to CT3 or Kike’ for one year. I have already gone on record that I am a DJ LeMahieu fan for a 2-year deal. I continue to be amazed at how little fans pay attention to defense. Everyone looks at his stats away from Coors and conclude he cannot hit outside of Colorado, and his defense has no value. I think with his bat to ball skills he can and will hit outside of Coors, and his glove will save enough runs to win 2-4 games. One other possibility is another tremendous bat to ball and defensive player…Jose Iglesias. His K rate for his career is less than 12%. Of course, he does not hit for HR power, so does he even make the cutting room floor with the Dodgers FO? He does have his share of doubles.
Many of us believe that the Dodgers have missed out on a solid #2 or co-Ace SP. They missed on Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole in the last 2 ½ years. The Dodgers were very much in on Sale at the trade deadline in 2016. Would he have been enough to get the Dodgers past Chicago to the WS in 2016? Yes, Sale would have cost Julio Urias, but maybe they have 2-3 WS titles with him. Verlander would have been expensive, and they would not have gotten under the luxury tax last year with him. But Gerrit Cole could have been and should have been (IMO) a Dodger this year for minimal prospect capital. This year the Dodgers have a chance again to get that co-co-Ace…Corey Kluber. They may have to take Jason Kipnis with him, but really is that so bad to get Kluber? You get Kluber for 3 years at $47.5MM (including $1MM trade bonus), and Kipnis 1 year at $14.5MM plus a $2.5MM buyout in 2020. But another positive is that Kluber’s AAV is only $7.7MM for 2019, and Kipnis is $8.75MM for 2019. Kipnis is not my idea of a good 2B, but he is only needed one year. How would a rotation of Buehler/Kluber/Kershaw/Hill/Urias look? Both Wood and Maeda could be moved in the Kluber deal. Maeda gives the Indians a longer term less costly RH arm, and Wood gives the Indians a LHSP. They have no LHSP and only Brad Hand and Tyler Olsen as LHRP. Include Scott Alexander and maybe the prospect capital gets less and less. They need RHH OF, so maybe Puig could be of interest.
Posturing just a bit. Trade Puig, Wood, Joc, Maeda, CT3 or Kike. That is $34MM in saving. Couple that with the current shortfall of the luxury tax of $27MM, and that is $61MM below the luxury tax threshold. They could trade for Kluber and Kipnis ($29.5MM in real $$$, and $16.45MM AAV). That would leave them more than enough to sign Bryce Harper and still stay under the luxury tax. What would it take to get Jose Abreu and move Belli to CF? He has one year of arbitration estimated to be $16MM. Bottom line, the Dodgers have choices, and financial concerns should not be a consideration. If they are, then they should strongly consider selling the team. Or they can stand pat and HOPE that the players play at an elite level and stay well below the luxury tax threshold. That will make Todd Boehly happy. I am not sure about the near 4MM in attendance.
Discussion (54)
Disagree, not disagreeable
AC, I would do that deal for Kluber and Kipnis. Would they? They would if you threw in May or White. I’d try Alvarez first.
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Now that Zaidi is gone, I wonder if Friedman will wait and see what Roberts does before signing him to a new deal… that, and his old buddy, Joe Maddon will be Free at last! 😉
Interesting article in The Athletic on Jim Bowden’s 5 “realistic trades” for two years of JT Realmuto. The most likely trade partners:
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Astros – RHP Josh James and OF Tony Kemp
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Braves – 2 of RHP Ian Anderson, RHP Touki Toussaint, RHP Bryse Wilson, and LHP Luiz Gohara
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Dodgers – Verdugo and Dustin May
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Rockies – 2B Garrett Hampson and RHP Peter Lambert
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Nationals – OF Victor Robles
Interesting.
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I’ve always thought, read and heard is that Walter controlled the Guggenheim investment in the Dodgers and had the voting power. I didn’t know Boehly even had an interest in day to day operations, to him it is and was a medium term asset investment.
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Hmmm.
Interesting article on the loss of Dodger personnel thus far in 2018 (field & office):
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https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-lose-another-member-of-the-organization-cp1085/2018/11/09/
I’ve ignored this pace for a month as I usually do around October. A few posters wear me out and I wear on others as well. I will most likely disappear again very soon.
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I have lost interest in Taylor and Muncy much like many have lost interest in Pederson. I continue to have high hopes for Bellinger but I worry about him.
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For one year of Goldschmidt I would offer Kemp, Stripling, and Muncy and take on Greinke’s contract. AZ could court Goldschmidt again when he becomes a free agent in 2020 and have the money to compete by saving the cost of Greinke’s $35M annual contract. They could also chase after Machado or Harper or any of the free agent pitchers without Greinke’s contract.
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I would offer Wood for Sonny Gray. A change of scenery could help both, save the Dodgers $3M, and add a righty to their rotation if Gray can earn a spot.
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I would offer Taylor, Puig, Ruiz, and Barnes for Realmuto and then see what pitchers might be needed to make the deal. Some have said it would take at least May and Verdugo to get Realmuto.
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RF Verdugo
3B Turner
SS Seager
1B Goldschmidt
LF Pederson
C Realmuto
CF Bellinger
2B Hernandez / Lux
Mark, I’m not sure about “lock-down”, but I could see Scott Alexander being a valuable bullpen arm if he gets a grip on his command.
Somebody please explain to me how Andrew Toles has good bat to ball skills. In 2018 he had 258 AAA at bats where he struck out 56 times. And he only drew 13 BB.
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https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tolesan01.shtml
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I commend AC on the work he did to produce the above, and other stuff he’s posted. Takes a lot of time, thought and dedication. In general, I get the impression that the possibilities are endless, and that there are multiple paths to success.
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If I had to choose between Kike’ and CT3, it would be CT3, but a close call nevertheless. I base that on the fact that I think the CT3’s speed plays better in a utility role than Kike’s power. Other than that they both possess a great deal of versatility with neither having much, if any, advantage over the other.
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I have stated before, and still have the same opinion that the Dodgers should pursue DJ LeMahieu. Like AC I think he will hit outside of Coors (as I’ve stated before), and like AC I value his defense. How many times have we seen just a single defensive mishap balloon into a big inning. Just making the simple, routine defensive plays day in and day out can make a huge difference over a full season. And sometimes winning or losing a postseason game or series can center around a single defensive play or misplay.
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I won’t get into the Dodgers’ finances, since quite frankly, I haven’t delved deeply enough into it to have any opinion one way or the other. However, I’ve read enough to understand that there might be things to worry about, maybe a lot.
Fahan Zaidi, as quoted by NBC Sports, on why everyone should play multiple positions:
“”I do think it has a cultural impact on a roster when players move around and they don’t identify as ‘I’m the shortstop and I’m the third baseman.’ You’re just a baseball player and you’re part of the team and you do whatever the team asks or needs of you, and that creates a different kind of culture that I think is really conducive to a winning environment,” he said. ”
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This is OK to a point – but really – don’t have a regular CF because everyone should just be part of a team?
Fearless Prediction:
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Scott Alexander becomes a “lock-down” reliever for the Dodgers in 2019.
AC has done a great financial analysis of where the Dodgers sit now and has done an interesting job of playing “what if?”. I don’t believe that the Dodgers are inclined to make the changes pre-season that are being speculated about.
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I still say that the past is the best indicator of the future. What has the Braintrust done in the past 3 off-seasons?
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2015/6
Resigned Chase Utley, Howie Kendrick and AJ Ellis
Traded minor leaguers for minor leaguers and obtained Frankie Montas, Trayce Thompson and Micah Johnson
Traded for Rob Segedin
Signed free agents – Scott Kazmir (3/$48MM)
Brandon Beachey (1/$1.5MM)
Kenta Maeda (8/$24MM)
Yasiel Sierra(6/$30MM)
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2016/17
Traded Howie Kendirck for Darren Ruf
Re-signed Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen & Justin Turner
Traded for Logan Forsythe
Signed free agents
Sergio Romo (1/$3MM)
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2017/18
Claimed Grant Dayton and JT Chargois off of waivers
Traded for Scott Alexander
Salary dump – Adrian Gonzalez, Charlie Culberson & Brandon McCarthy for Matt Kemp
Decline Andre Ethier’s option
Sign free agents
Tom Kohler (1/$2MM)
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Pick up any trends? The Dodgers mainly stand pat from season to season, adding a reliever or 2, nibbling around the edges, adding talent from the farm.
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I expect them to do likewise this season. From the standpoint of the owners, this is a team that has won 6 straight Divisional titles and has been to the Series 2 years in a row, so why make major changges?
M.T. – AC is your #2 starter… Don’t be getting no hammy homes!!
I got Kiki over CT3…
Gotta come up with something better to start the season than Smith as B/U C..
Urias will be #5 starter by May or June…
I’d love your lineup #1 thru #7, but then reality sets in!!!
Am I the only one out here that is scared with J.T.???
Notre Dame over FSU tonite… Patiently waiting on my trip to the Memorial Coliseum…
I don’t have favorite Dodger players,I have no problem trading any player at any time as long as the trade makes the team stronger so let’s see how Friedman puts together the 2019 team.
The infighting behind the scenes with Guggenheim Partner, Shareholders and Boehly is epic and could potentially force a sale of the Dodgers. It’s bad… is all I can say.
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For people to say that Friedman just wants cheap players is borderline delusional. Here are the facts:
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1. Signing Big Name Free Agents to stupid, long-term deals is the path to losing… not winning. I’m not saying that you should never do that, but how would like to owe Stanton $300 million over the next 10 years? Those last 5 years are going to be horrid… maybe sooner.
2. During Friedman’s tenure with the Dodgers, he has been saddled with some really bad big contracts. Now, it’s just Kemp, and while he was good the first half of last year, he’s not a really good player. Some people clamour for him to play more, but the Dodgers had 16 players with a higher WAR than Matt. Kike Hernandez and CT3 each doubled Kemp’s WAR. Insane!
3. Some have used the example of Justin Verlander and the fact that Friedman did not trade for him, but instead traded for Darvish because Verlander was owed for two more years as an example that Friedman would not spend the money. YES! He could not spend the money as he had to get below the Luxury Tax and he could not do it with trading for Verlander. PERIOD! End of Story. Quit saying dumb stuff! Oh… and most baseball people felt Darvish was the better choice at the time. However, even if he wasn’t, Friedman could not have traded for Verlander. PERIOD!
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I am glad AC did todays blog. I started to do it but didn’t have the time. I know how much time it takes and we all owe AC a Thank You! He probably did it better than me anyway!
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I agree with him on most of it. I also believe that the Dodgers could trade Puig, Wood, Muncy, Pederson and Maeda, and get Kluber and Harper and Abreu… especially if RYU doesn’t take the QO. $350/10 years with opt outs might get it done. That would mean no upgrade at C or 2B, but that fine. I would love this lineup:
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1. Verdugo RF
2. Seager SS
3. Turner 3B
4. Harper LF
5. Abreu 1B
6. Bellinger CF
7. CT3 or Kike (keep one) 2B (until Lux)
8. Barnes/Smith C
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Rotation:
1. Kershaw
2. Kluber
3. Buehler
4. Hill
5. Chicken Strip
Fair. I just like joc as a good 4th OF who probably the potential for a 40 hr season in his prime. That is valuable even at $4 mil.
I think the moves the team makes will speak volumes of their intentions and the fans are watching closely. The team has never signed a FA with a QO attached and I think Harper is out for that and other reasons. I like Kluber a lot as a front line starter option and the team has the pieces to make it work.
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Every team will ask for Muncy: some on here say to ‘sell high’ but I say find him a position, you don’t trade that power and OPS without a VERY tasty return. Are Kike and CT3 redundant? Perhaps. Is it time to move Joc? If it opens up a spot for Verdugo then I’m down. Time to move Puig? I say a loud NO but again every team will ask for him so the return must be tasty IMO. Wood or Maeda? If Ryu takes the QO then one will be moved and they both have upside. I keep Stripling around for his versatility in many roles. Kemp would be hard to move so he splits time in LF and RF for another year.
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To me the untouchables are Buehler, Seager, Cody and JT. Guys to build around are Puig, Muncy and Urias. Everyone else is tradeable for the right return. Prospects that should be held onto: Ruiz, Lux, Peters. Everyone else is available in the right deal.
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I don’t see a real effort to make wholesale changes despite all the speculation. For one the team turns down lots of deals trying for ‘an edge’. For two staying under the threshold means moving salary to add much of anything especially if Ryu takes the QO. For 3 they are winning the West with what they have right now and they know deadline deals are there to tweak the roster ahead of the playoffs.
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Real needs: Catcher but maybe only short term. 2B but there are many internal options. Legit # 2 or 3 starter but maybe they like what they have, especially with Hill on final year of contract. True setup man for the 8th but they cost more than the team likes to spend. Clear out OF logjam. Clear out some of the AAAA types for quality.
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I’m hopeful but not optimistic the teams approach aligns with what the fans want.
AC
Thanks, another good job!
It is to bad the Dodgers can’t get someone to buy out that other owner Boehly.
But I would think since Boehly is the only owner that is more concerned about going over the luxury tax, then winning a World Championship, I don’t see the Dodgers going to the extreme that Boehly would like to see, although I don’t know what percentage of the Dodger’s ownership, Boehly holds.
Great read!
All decisions above my pay grade. I think these guys look at your thinking! They should it’s the F word….FREE!
Thanks for the insight!
Once again, AC, you hit a home run.
What about Sonny Gray?
Bravo. I am firmly on the DJ LeMay train now. I’m also warming to James Paxton in blue. The nice thing about setting your sights on Harper is failing that we now can spread that money around. I also want a one-year high-dollar reliever.