Dave Roberts
Many of you wonder why Dave Roberts does certain things, like oh… hit Chris Taylor #3? Some fans almost become enraged when he does such things. Why on earth would he have old man David Freese bat leadoff? Kike Hernandez #5? Why, oh why? Well, simply stated, it’s because you are playing checkers and he is playing chess. He’s about 6 moves ahead of you. You are thinking about THIS game. He’s thinking about THIS season. It’s a long season and it’s no secret that CT3 has struggled… until recently.
Chris Taylor hit .300 in May, with a .347 OB% and a .904 OPS. His confidence had to be waning in April, so what better way to boost his confidence by saying “Chris, you are the #3 hitter today – I have confidence in you.” Some smartasses will say “Yeah, that worked great, he got ZERO hits!” But the Dodgers won and the message was received regardless of how CT3 did. The stats back up what Doc did by putting CT3 in the Three-Hole – it’s not like he was hitting .100, but most importantly, Chris Taylor knows he has value. By showing confidence in a player when they are struggling or have been struggling, you can help turn around a season. Doc knows what he is doing. He has been there and done that.
If he wins a second “Manager of the Year” in 2019, will the Doc-Bashers shut up? I doubt it! It’s an irrational compulsion, like Kleptomania, which is the recurrent inability to resist urges to steal items that you generally don’t really need and that usually have little value! Dave Roberts is on track to do just that, but for some fans, that is not enough. They second guess everything he does and of course, since not everything he does works, it becomes “proof positive” (in their minds), that Roberts is a moron… a moron with by far the best record in baseball.
Does Doc look at OPS? He most likely is supplied with 40 modifications of OPS from the Dodgers’ Analytics Department of OPS and algorithms for a plethora of other data. As an illustration, let’s say that Doc brings in Julio Urias to face a LH hitter. Julio is not as good against lefties as righties, so why bring him in? Well, the Dodgers’ analytics may say that Julio is very good at commanding a pitch low and away from this hitter and that hitter is also very susceptible at swinging and missing those kinds of pitches. If Doc brings in Julio who hangs a slider in the middle of the zone, the Doc Bashers say he is an idiot and want him executed, when in reality, it was the lack of execution by the pitcher or hitter.
When Doc brought in Joe Kelly with an 8-0 lead, what if Kelly had loaded the bases and gave up a grand slam? The Doc-Bashers would have called him a moron, but Kelly executed and Doc looked brilliant by bringing in the struggling Kelly in a low leverage situation whereby he might regain some confidence. By the way, confidence is as big a part of hitting and pitching as technique and with your manager showing confidence in you, it breeds more confidence.
Many fans fail to understand how patience is a virtue, but again, we are playing checkers and Doc is playing chess. He has so much more data at his disposal that it would blow our minds and it is evolving every single day. It’s OK to disagree, just like it’s OK to think you are Superman and jump off the Empire State Building. Have at it! 😉
Clayton Kershaw
Lots of Dodger fans have written off Clayton Kershaw and say that he’s a nice #3 or #4 starter. Yes, that would be nice… except he IS the Ace. He’s the Dodgers’ Ace and will be for the foreseeable future. Clayton is a few innings short of qualifying for enough innings, but he’s getting close. He has a 3.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. By contrast, Max Scherzer has a 3.06 ERA but a 1.13 WHIP. By the time he collects enough innings to qualify, I think he will be in the Top 10 in starting pitchers in MLB.
The drop in fastball velocity is causing him to really have to re-invent himself, but we saw it in Rich Hill yesterday, who threw a fastball 93 and curve at 63. Clayton is getting there, and the results will come. In fact, he’s been pretty dang good. Saturday he delivered seven innings of one-run ball while striking out six. He has gone at least six innings in each of his first nine starts this year, and the Dodgers have won every one of those games. It’s positively “Ace-Like.”
Will Smith
Will Smith is showing why Andrew Friedman says he is going to be a Hall of Famer. I am not sure if he was serious when he said that, but so far, who can argue with it? He certainly looks poised and confident. He has soft hands and quick feet, something that is important for a catcher to go with an above-average arm. The Dodgers have a few more days to contemplate it, but IF – I said IF Smith keeps it up, the Dodgers could go with 3 catchers because Smith can also play 3B and 2B and play them well.
Matt Beaty might be the odd-man-out, but he has shown he belongs in The Show as well. Zach Reks is also just waiting for his chance as well. This is a really hard decision to make. Beaty deserves to stay, but Smith might deserve it as well.
Keibert Ruiz
As good as Will Smith looks, Kaybear is better. Alex Verdugo’s brother took me to task for saying that Ruiz resembles Alex Verdugo, but that is no rap on Alex. Ruiz has amazing bat-to-ball skills and this year, even though they are working on re-tooling his swing, he is hitting .270 with just 9 strikeouts in 152 AB’s. That’s a 6% strikeout rate which is totally sick. He’s much younger than Smith and Baseball America rates his Hit Tool as a 60 (compared to Smith’s 45). Smith grades better defensively and has a better arm, but that may not hold up as Ruiz matures and progresses.
Let’s hope that Smith turns out to be that HOF catcher and Ruiz has to move to another position. It would seem to me that 1B is his best bet as his speed is “SLOW.” You can clock him with a sundial. However, Verdugo got faster and maybe Kaybear can do the same. He is fun to watch. I am also anxious to see Diego Cartaya.
The Old Men
The Dodgers have a very young team for the most part as Seager, Bellinger, Hernandez, Taylor, Verdugo, and others are in their mid-to-late 20’s. However, the Dodgers have four, count ’em 4, older players who are role players and are excellent examples for the young guys:
- Justin Turner – Yes, he is becoming a “role player.” He will be 35 next season and rest is something he will need more of. He played 130 games in 2017 and 103 last year. I think he will be somewhere “in-between” this year as he gets ready for his “swan song” next year. JT is the heart and soul of the Dodgers and will be fierce for the playoffs. They just have to keep him healthy.
- AJ Pollock – What happened to his elbow was just plain bad luck, but it appears he will return in July or August. He will have to wrap his head around not being a starter anymore, but he’s a class guy and I think he will embrace that role. He remains a key component for the team as a RH hitter.
- David Freese – Don’t play him too much but he will deliver the clutch hits and play defense at 1B too. He is beloved by his teammates.
- Russell Martin – They say you can’t come home again, but Russ did and the respect he has earned from his teammates is immense and deserved. Many fans knocked the move when it was made, but he is hitting .265 with a .318 OB% while playing an excellent defensive game. Barnes and Martin… and now Smith are solid, if not spectacular.
- Rich Hill – The list would not be complete with this old guy. Pedro Moura of The Athletic has a piece on Rich Hill, but here’s an excerpt: “Everyone in here really wants to win, there’s no doubt about it,” said reliever Ross Stripling. “But Rich really wants to win. You can see that when he pitches, like in Tampa Bay, when he’s screaming out F-words in front of 2,000 people. There’s not a lot of people that have that fervor.”
Minor League Report by DC
Player of the Day – Edwin Rios: 2 runs, 2 hits, 5 RBI, 2 HR
Pitchers of the Day – Nathan Witt and Max Gamboa.
My personal bias is revealed here. That is, the misnomer with saves. For instance, Nathan Witt truly saved the game while Brett de Geus simply preserved the lead.
Nathan Witt came in with two runners on in the seventh and the Loons leading 5-4. He got a ground ball to leave them standing. He pitched another inning, a clean inning in the eighth, and did not get the save. Brett de Geus got the save although he came in with the bases empty in the ninth and a 7-4 lead.
The pitcher of the day could be Dennis Santana but what he did he is expected to do. What Max Gamboa did is more than expected. It is hoped for. That is, he inherited a bases loaded situation with a 6-4 score and struck out the hitter he faced to strand the runners. He was awarded a save as he finished the game.
Great Lakes Loons 7 – Fort Wayne TinCaps 4 (Padres)
The Loons completed a three-game sweep of the TinCaps dropping them 9.5 games behind the first place Loons. Great Lakes out hit Fort Wayne 32-16 in the series and out scored them 27-10.
In Sunday’s game in Fort Wayne the visiting Loons faced 19-year-old Efraín Contreras who had dominated them back on May 27th at Dow Diamond. The second time around they got to Contreras early with four runs in the top of the third inning on RBI singles by Jacob Amaya, Niko Hulsizer and Hunter Feduccia. They tacked on a single run in the sixth on a Dan Robinson ground out. Leading by a single run in the top of the eight inning they salted it away with a two-out, two-run home run by Luke Heyer. Every Loon starter had a hit except outfielder Dan Robinson. Hunter Feduccia , with two, had the only multiple hit game.
On the mound right-hander Stephen Kolek got off to a shaky start spotting the TinCaps a three-spot in the bottom of the first inning with all three unearned after a Miguel Vargas throwing error. Kolek settled in after that pitching five additional innings on two hits and seven strikeouts. Joel Inoa followed him and did not get out of the seventh inning giving up a run and leaving two on base for Nathan Witt who induced a ground ball to close out the inning. Witt pitched an additional inning retiring the side on two ground outs and a strikeout. Brett de Geus finished up with a scoreless ninth inning on one hit and two strikeouts.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 6 – Inland Empire 66ers 4 (LAA)
The Quakes came out firing in the bottom of the first inning putting up four on a Marcus Chiu single, a two-run homer un by Jeren Kendall and a single by Starling Heredia. Catcher Tre Todd, in the bottom of the sixth inning, hit his first home run of the year driving in Starling Heredia who now has a seven-game hitting streak and is hitting .281 in his last ten games. The Quakes loaded the bases in the bottom of the eighth inning with a 6-4 lead on a HBP and two walks looking to break the game open. Two strikeouts and a ground out the score was still 6-4.
Michael Grove started for the Quakes and after a clean first inning he gave up a three-run home run to catcher Ryan Scott. In the top of the second inning. That would be the same Ryan Scott that was released by the Drillers back in 2016 although he never played at that level. Wills Mongomerie followed Grove and breezed through three innings before getting into control problems in the sixth with walks and walking in the tying run. Connor Mitchell loaded the bases in the top of the eighth with two outs prompting manager Mark Kertenian to bring in Max Gamboa who shut down the threat with a strikeout.
Gamboa finished a scoreless ninth with two more strikeouts.
Tulsa Drillers 3 – Arkansas Travelers 10 (Seattle)
The Drillers took it on the nose and probably other body parts losing 10-3 to Arkansas and now stand
6.5 games behind the division leading Travelers. Tulsa was tied 3-3 after five innings before the roof caved in. Pitchers JD Martin, Ryan Moseley and Michael Boyle gave up seven runs in the sixth and seventh innings – Martin with one and his fourth of the game, Moseley with five while recording a single out and Boyle with one while allowing two inherited runners to score.
Offensively, the Drillers scored their three runs in the third inning with two out. Chris Parmalee scored on an error after his double while two more scored on a Zach McKinstry double. The Drillers had but four hits, three of them doubles. Cody Thomas, with his double, now has 96 total bases on the season, good for sixth in the Texas League.
The second baseman, Sam McWilliams , started his second game for the Drillers and has scored two runs but has not yet had a hit. He is 21-years-old and was a 19th round selection by the Dodgers in the 2018 June Draft.
OKC Dodgers 8 – Memphis Redbirds 2 (Cardinals)
The Dodgers have come alive in the last four games including a sweep of the Redbirds. Dennis Santana had his second consecutive strong outing going six innings on five hits with two runs while walking one and striking out four. Relievers Kevin Quackenbush, Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz pitched three scoreless innings on a combined one hit, no walks and two strikeouts.
With the bat, the Dodgers played mostly long ball with even sacrifice flies being long. In the second inning, Edwin Rios hit a solo home run while Errol Robinson drove in a second run with a single. In the top of the third inning, Zach Reks homered and Edwin Rios drove in another with a sacrifice fly. Rios next hit a three-run home run in the bottom of the fifth and Connor Joe closed out the scoring with another sacrifice fly in the top of the sixth inning. The Dodgers scored eight runs on eight hits, besides the two by Rios, Drew Jackson had two.
Discussion (104)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Our starting rotation just on an insane run! Wow!
Someone has to tell JOC you can’t pull a slider down and away. He couldn’t hit my slider! OK. I give up JOC is a platoon player!
WB loses his perfect game, no hitter and shutout on one pitch.
Dang it. A left handed hitting 2nd Baseman. I thought Strumpf was the choice but the Dodgers went with Busch.
So is Goss 31?
I was right. They played it safe with the College guy Hoese. Right Hand hitting 3b
Espino is gone.
It will be J.J. Goss at 25 and Chase Strumpf at 31
Dodgers pick is getting close at #25. Who will it be? And why is the 9th ranked guy dropped so low?
Joc is becoming harder and harder to keep out of the lineup. Friggin dude is killin’ it right now.
Doc has stunned all of us! Against the leftie Robbie Ray, look who’s batting 8th!
CT3 (cf)
Kike
JT
Freeze
Seager
Will Smith
Verdugo (RF)
Joc!!!!
Buehler
Spoke to some Giants fans today. Their big issue is who will replace Bochy. You probably do not care, but any thoughts?
I think to evaluate Roberts you need to separate Roberts the tactician and Roberts the leader. We have opposed views about Roberts the tactician. The truth probably resides in the middle. He’s average. But Roberts the leader is off the charts good. His level of communication, confidence, patience, team first attitude, encouragement and calmness in the midst of difficult circumstances is as good as there is in baseball. And that level of player management is more important in today’s game with all the power players have now compared to previous generations. He gets a B+ in my book!
There is no argument with me about Will Smith. If he can be a great defensive catcher and hit, then why not find a home for Ruiz? There was never any question that Alex Verdugo had an elite hit tool. Alex Verdugo will win some batting championships is my opinion. This is not any disrespect to Alex, but Kaybear has an “eliter” hit tool. This guys bat could be very special. Ruiz is likely to move if Will Smith is the real deal. The only issue is that Smith is not a big guy. He about Austin Barnes size. Ruiz is 6′ and 200+ lbs. and as he matures he a 6′ 220 pound backstop. That may be the difference!
Castellanos has a 900 plus ops vs. left handers.324 ave vs. lefties this year. This is the best time to get him when you can buy low. He is treading water with Detroit. He will become a free agent, down year, Detroit can’t seem to get an extension, not much leverage for Detroit. He could fill a dodger need and at the least a big bat off the bench. I agree I would not overpay but he might be a bargain.
Doc decisions to bat people anywhere he wants is a product of great talent. If he had less talent he would not be batting Beaty behind bellinger. While he may be building Taylor’s confidence how is he helping the confidence of the people he bats behind. Through the course of a full season the dodger roster of talent allows for wide latitude. Unfortunately, in the playoffs, in a short series, the talent level gets a lot closer and each decision is magnified. There is less margin for error as we have learned. In a short series you maximize a shorter roster. The experimentation and expectations are much different.
This thinking that kershaw is the ace is what I fear the most. This is the kind of thinking that has caused us to throw kershaw out there as our savior. We see how that has worked out. Insanity doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Take the pressure off kershaw by putting him in a secondary role. When ryu started the first game I think against Atlanta you would have thought the sky was falling. Instead, we won and kershaw pitched a really good second game. Then, they went back to putting kershaw feelings ahead of the team.
Will smith will go down to get regular at bats but his experience has been positive. The bullpen will still have to improve. I do not blame doc for this bullpen. He can only put in who he has and in the situations that are called for. The team is so good that we will win with this bullpen. Plus, some are definitely better than how they have pitched surely. I think the biggest issue with the pen is lack of command. We have got to come with a quality guy that can throw strike one. The good thing is this team can be improved and it must start with the bullpen and a quality rh bat who could be pollock.
I forgot to mention, those are great stats Mark posted about CT3; he’s really come on strong after a bad start; hopefully now Kike can start to wake up as well.
Found this article posted in another Dodgers fan group: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cody-bellinger-was-already-good-then-he-changed-his-swing/?fbclid=IwAR39REstNbEye3kuHI7lzWD5PSbAIg9BrEAqxrf57-mbwNzWonXNAAj9q1I
Remember how Bellinger was exposed in the 2017 WS with breaking balls low and in? He’s not getting beat by those pitches anymore – he’s gotten really good advice from vets (like JT) and analytics gurus and he’s worked his tail off to make the right adjustments. At my son’s high school baseball team banquet the coach relayed a quote from someone who said “Success is not the result of a singular gargantuan effort, but rather the relentless pursuit of incremental daily improvements.”
Part of me wonders if Joc has it in him to do what Bellinger did to elevate his game. Joc has the physical skills to be an elite hitter. However, he has to show he’s got the drive and the mental makeup to do what Belli has done.
This team is good. BUT, we can get gooder, and we start getting gooder with this draft today! Hopefully AC/DC and the rest of the smart folks here will have some nice insights on the guys we draft tonight.
I agree that, yes, we need some outfielders, and some left handed starters, BUT, just go get the best guy possible. You can always trade for what you need later, if you have studs in surplus and don’t draft just for need.
And NO, Kersh is not the ace. Kersh would not start game 1 in the playoffs, nor should he, and until he proves otherwise, I will be nervous that he’ll be “average at best” in October.
FanGraphs has a new mock:
In it the Dodgers get Kody Hoese and Kyle Stowers. Kiley and Eric also report or relay that the Dodgers have worked out Daniel Espino, like Gunnar Henderson, Brennan Malone and Will Wilson.
They go on with the Dodgers “really” liking Stowers. Could also be angling for 1B/LHP Spencer Jones in the second round and UC Irvine 1B Brandon Lewis later.
Does anyone know what, if anything Case Utley is doing for the Dodgers these days ?
Good win yesterday for the Dodgers. I loved the suicide -squeeze-sacrifice bunt. Reminded me of Lasorda days. Exciting. And it was a good bunt by CT3. By the way anyone know why Bellinger was replaced by Hernandez last night in right field?
Jeff – I don’t really understand why you are so down on Doc. Isn’t a manager always a product of his team? If he has good players he is a good manager. If he doesn’t, he is a poor manager. Is Bruce Bochy the same manager he was winning the WS and now having his teams finish last in the division? When Walter Alston had the horses he usually won. When he didn’t have the horses he didn’t win. He would be the first to tell you he won because of what the players did on the field. The players take a manager into the HOF, the manager doesn’t take the players.
You said: “Anyone think that Doc has made Cody into a force of nature? JT the soul of the Dodgers? Kershaw the ace of aces?”
Nobody thinks he made Cody, JT, Kersh into what they are. What they are came from within them but I would contend is that Doc has established an environment in which players can become what they are. He makes those conditions available. Max Muncy would be a prime example. He has an understanding of the game knowing that failure is more prevalent than success and helps players deal with failure. Players fail but with Doc they don’t have to fear that their playing time with the team is over or cut drastically. It is also my contention that Doc helps players through those rough times by continuing to have them play their roles and being supportive.
Walter Alston scared his players, Tommy loved them and Doc is more than a manager simply using all those wonderful analytics. Perhaps they are key during games but he is always working to have them build confidence. And yes, he does present different lineups and put players in the batting order that make us wonder. But they are winning and executing so maybe, just maybe, his lineups aren’t the dishwater some think they are. I think it is an over-statement to say they are winning in spite of him. If so, why didn’t they the WS the past two years?
Yesterday was amazing. Every player in the lineup in the eighth inning did what needed to be done. Hit for power, go from first to third on a single, hit sac flies, bunt a run home. If the manager must take the criticism when they lose, then he is entitled to the praise when they win as they did on Sunday.
Ouch! Can you really deny the patience and encouragement that DR is showing guys who are struggling. If you don’t like his decisions on the field at least appreciate his effort to help players succeed.
That’s a manager i would appreciate,
and what he’s doing doesn’t seem to be hurting this team.
Freese may be as good an asset or better than Chase Utley was for the Dodgers. I know that is a tall statement to make but the guy has been nothing but clutch and has been a sweet addition to this roster. He was a respected player on his old clubs and still gets the cheers and welcome mat. Having elders who are still vital can balance a team and add an intangible element that doesn’t show up in stats. His stats ain’t bad at all.
I think Mark is reaching for the stars in his essay on Doc. Wild projections and revisionist dogma that have little to do with the guy and more to the talent of this team. It’s hard to look bad with a team such as we have. I said earlier in the season that we might be looking at an historical moment here and Doc is not responsible for it but is the beneficiary of the greatness of this team at present. Anyone think that Doc has made Cody into a force of nature? JT the soul of the Dodgers? Kershaw the ace of aces? Get real Mark. It’s good to be a fan but not a fool.
I like Zach Reks who is playing way above his scouting resume when he was drafted in the 10th round in 2017. He was considered a light power hitting corner OF, but his power production has spiked up, especially this year. But he is 25, and is struggling somewhat in making consistent contact at AAA. I am not sure that Zach is just waiting his chance. I think Kyle Garlick will get more than a cameo appearance before Reks breaks onto the roster. Both are destined for #4/#5 OF for some ML team, and what is not to like about that. But neither figure to be AS.
I like the life that both Edwin Rios and especially Starling Heredia are showing. It has been a long time since we were talking about Heredia as a prospect. We fans forget that Starling is still just 20, and may now just be getting used to being “away from home”. After yesterday’s game he is now at .314 over the last 10 games. Rios’ power is starting to reemerge, and there is hope that he will continue to drive the ball. He now has a five game hitting streak of his own. At 25, I do not see Edwin as a long term Dodger, especially since it appears that Matt Beaty may have passed him by as a ML player. Just like I wanted to see Willie Calhoun traded because I hoped he would be a ML player, but it would not be as a Dodger, I feel the same for Rios. I have seen too many times what happens with players that are “stuck” in an organization when they might be able to crack the roster in another. I think Rios is that guy. While he is ML ready, he is just not a 20-22 year old prospect, so do not expect a big return.
The Athletic on Top Catching Prospects:
https://theathletic.com/1004955/2019/06/03/duquette-the-top-10-catching-prospects-in-baseball/?source=dailyemail&redirected=1
Hint: Ruiz is #3 and Smith is #7.
Batting Freese leadoff made all the sense in the world. The Phillies were using an left handed opener, hence the need for a right handed bat. Having Freese lead off allowed Roberts to maximize the amount of at bats Freese would get in the game.