It must have been painful for some of these free agents going through contract negotiations the last couple of years. Led by AF, most teams are not all that keen on signing over age players/pitchers to long term $100MM + deals, and the players’ agents are having a rough time talking their clientele into accepting a deal much less than what they originally believed would be available, but probably closer to their fair value. Not wanting to experience what Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are experiencing right now (and Moustakas the last two years), some of these players are re-evaluating their desire to enter free agency and looking into signing extensions before they get to that status. It sure seems like the extensions are coming hot and heavy this year. And this year they are not reserved strictly for youngsters with the club buying out arbitration and FA years.
To the best of my knowledge, the following have signed significant extensions:
Aaron Nola – Phillies RHSP – 4 years $45MM; 2023 club option $16MM, $4MM buyout.
Luis Severino – NYY RHSP – 4 years $40MM; 2023 club option $15MM, $2.75MM buyout.
Aaron Hicks – NYY OF – 7 years $70MM (2019-2025); club option 2026, $1MM buyout.
Brandon Lowe – Tampa 2B – 6 years $24MM; club option 2025 $10.5MM, $1MM buyout; club option 2026 $10.5MM, $500K buyout.
Nolan Arenado – Rockies 3B – 8 years $260MM, with opt out after 2021 season.
Mike Trout – Angels OF – 12 years $426.5MM.
Blake Snell – Tampa LHSP (2018 CY Winner) – 5 years $50MM.
Alex Bregman – Houston 3B – 5 year $100MM (2020-2024).
Miles Mikolas – Cardinals RHSP – 4 years (2020-2023) $68MM
Carlos Carrasco – Indians RHSP – 4 years $47MM
Eloy Jimenez – ChiSox OF (Rookie – No service time) – 6 year $40MM + 2 option years at $32MM ($3MM buyout); $43MM guaranteed; $75MM maximum if both options exercised.
Justin Verlander – Astros RHSP – 2 years $66MM (2020-2021).
Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals 1B – 5 years $130MM (2020-2024).
Chris Sale – BoSox LHSP – 5 years $145MM (2020-2024); opt out after 2022 season.
Kyle Hendricks – Cubs RHSP – 4 year $55.5MM (2020-2023); Vesting option 2024 $16MM, $1.5MM buyout.
Jacob deGrom – Mets RHSP – 4 year $120MM (2020-2024).
Other extensions with less grandiose contracts include:
Sonny Gray – Reds RHSP – 3 years (2020-2022) $30.50MM
Max Kepler – Twins OF – 5 years $35MM
Jorge Polanco – Twins SS – 5 years, $25.75MM
Raisel Iglesias – Reds Closer – 3 years $24.125MM
Ryan Pressly – Astros RHRP – 2 years (2020-2021) $17.5MM
Whit Merrifield – KC 2B – 4 years $16.25MM
Jose Leclerc – Rangers Closer – 4 years $14.75MM
Tampa Bay is a leader in these early extensions and have two more that they are likely to vigorously pursue; Willy Adames (SS), and Brent Honeywell (RHSP). The Yankees are looking to extend Dellin Betances (RHRP). There have been multiple players who have declined to discuss extensions, with Mookie Betts being the biggest name. Although I do expect the BoSox to go full out to get a deal done with Mookie.
What if anything does that portend for the Dodgers. AF is not at all opposed to signing players to extensions, even some large dollar extensions. I can see the Dodgers reaching out to Scott Boras to try and tie Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Julio Urias to long term extensions. Would Seager sign a deal somewhere between Jose Altuve (a Boras client) at 5 years, $151MM and Alex Bregman at 5 years $100MM?
Would Cody sign somewhere between Aaron Hicks and Paul Goldschmidt? Would Urias and Buehler sign for something slightly north of Aaron Nola and Luis Severino? $40MM to $50MM is nothing to sneeze at, but it would be dwarfed by what all four pitchers could make if they stayed healthy for their arbitration and pre-arbitration years. Both player and team accept some level of risk when entering these extension negotiations. But both player and team do not have to worry about contract negotiations or arbitration cases for the next several years. Most of these extensions occur during the players early earning years and they are hopeful of getting some of that back once they reach FA and can sign for the big dollars. The club is trying to hold onto that prized player/pitcher for as long as they can, so the dollars they expend to get out of the arbitration and one-two-three years of FA seems worth the overpay in the early years.
But those big dollars are drying up for the 30+ group. Paul Goldschmidt signed an early contract extension and was looking to sign a sizable FA contract next year to make up for it. The Cardinals stepped up and I do not believe that Goldy could have garnered much more than what he ultimately signed for. MadBum signed a very team friendly (as it turns out) long term extension with very affordable options and is now due to enter FA as a 30-year-old with some questions. He is not going to get a Zack Greinke contract. Not a David Price/Marx Scherzer contract. He is not going to even get a Stephen Strasburg contract. Somebody will pay him in the range of Chris Sale and/or Jon Lester, and they will get a quality pitcher for two to three years. It would be more realistic if Bumgarner was offered and accepted a Clayton Kershaw 3 year $93MM contract. However, I would not be at all surprised to see MadBum traded to Atlanta this summer and then AA signing him to a 5-year extension.
Besides the big names (Corey, Cody, Walker, Julio), who else could be candidates for extensions? Two that come to mind are Joc Pederson and Kike’ Hernandez. Would Joc accept a deal somewhere around a Max Kepler contract? Would Kike’ accept a deal between Polanco and Merrifield. What about Max Muncy?
With $80MM plus coming off the books this year, this winter seems to be the perfect time to try to lock up some of these players to fixed long term deals. The Dodgers were not too frugal when it came to JT, Hill, or Kenley, so I do believe that any extension offer would be at FMV. Scott Boras is the agent for several key Dodgers, so it might be unrealistic to expect all of Seager, Belli, and Urias to sign before FA, but if at least two of them could be extended, that makes the team less reliable on what they may have to pay for in the open FA market.
I thought Ryu was a perfect three-year candidate this past winter. 3-4 years at 33 (next March)? With shoulder surgery history? Does not seem likely, but I give Ryu credit. He is at least gambling on himself being a big success this year. If so, the Dodgers will be the big benefactor.
Extensions could be the new FA deal. Time will tell. But more importantly the players and management are going to need to aggressively address this issue before the next CBA.
Discussion (117)
Disagree, not disagreeable
You’re a good man, Ham, but don’t worry you don’t need to send me anything. I’m just glad Itchy Finger let Maeda pitch
This is the revenge for the HBP’s. CODY. CODY. CODY.
Am I the only one still up?
Brock Stewart. Now this man has a name worthy of greatness. Not living up to his name.
Brock for example, brings back memories of the great base stealer and Cardinal outfielder Lou Brock. The Chicago Cubs made a monumental error by trading Lou for Ernie Broglio and Bobby Shantz. Brock would go on to greatness for the Cards and the Cubs, well….
Stewart. Well, Dave Stewart comes to mind. Remember Dave Stewart?? Former Dodger who these Dodgers traded away for our Pitching Coach Rich Honeycutt. Dave Stewart would go on to have a great career. World Series MVP.
AJ hit by pitch. Joc HBP. Taylor HBP. Time for revenge!!!!!
And Corey and Turner are hitting 167 right now.
Bellinger and Joc. Joc and Bellinger. These two will hopefully have those breakout seasons together.
By the way, this Virginia Purdue game is great!
OK Everyone. Calm Down on JOC. Santa Ana Winds were blowing out to right field at Gale Force 7MPH lol
Well Ham, Maeda has 59 pitches thru 4. When does itchy finger Doc freak out and pull him???
Maeda is killing it.
This is the third game and I can already see a difference to the hitting approach.
This is just the third game, so let’s see.
But I still think Mark was right about Robbie Ray.
I hate to say it, because Bums will be unsufferable… but Joc Pederson may be ready for a breakout year.
I am impressed with RVS.
Joc is streaky so let’s see.
Toast to Bums…
Memo to Doc – Don’t platoon Joc!!
Well last night Joc made an out, and hit the ball about 150mph. Seems he is LOCKED in right now, so let him play and stay in!
I just found out that Chicken Strip was fine and nothing was wrong. Roberts decided to take him out with one gone in the sixth simply because a LH batter was up next.
I have just one thing to say to Dave Roberts about that ONE move:
I do not remember who wrote it, but somebody intimated that we should not second guess Doc for taking out Strip because after all he was only starting because of injuries. While technically that is true, Strip was in the rotation from the beginning of Spring because he was replacing Kersh who did not pitch at all. Strip started 5 games and led the team in innings pitched with 16.1. So he was not simply in the game because someone got injured at the end of Spring. He has been lengthened as a starter since the beginning of ST.
I do not expect management to discuss when they plan on taking out a pitcher, but a computer print out should not dictate when that should be either. Strip was sailing along, and any manager/pitching coach should be able to determine if the pitcher still has what it takes to get outs. That is what they are there for. It used to be that the manager/pitching coach went to the catcher to ask whether the pitcher still had it. Now it seems to be black and white…pitch to the pitch limit or # of times thru the order and you are gone.
There was also a comment that the relievers were well rested. Well that is true, since only three pitched more than 8 innings all spring…Garcia (9.2), Ferguson (8.2), Floro (8.1). Maybe they were TOO well rested. Right or wrong, this team uses the first month of the season as extended ST. It has worked to a point in a weak league/division. It would not work in the more competitive AL or any of the divisions other than AL Central. IMO they would not have made the playoffs if they were in the AL East or AL West or NL Central. It is a 162 game schedule not a 136 game schedule. All early season games count the same as late season games in the standings.
I recognize that it was only the second game of the year, and I fully expect the team to rebound tonight. I fully expect Joe Kelly to have a good season, but when he is off, he should come out, and when a pitcher is on, he should stay in. My guess is that it Robbie Ray were a Dodger, he would have been gone after three innings.
Hopefully tonight Godly’s curve isn’t working for him, because that is mainly what can make him a tough pitcher to hit.
And if he doesn’t have his curve, he is very hittable.
A Tale of Two Dodger Teams.
Blue Mom, yes that was pretty sweet. And Ryu had a pretty contained, but telling, grin jogging back to the dugout. He thought it was pretty funny.
One thing I found humorous last night, if anything can be humorous in last nights game, was the big smile on Bellinger’s face when Ryu hit the first pitch foul into the Right field stands. It was a foul ball. Go Dodgers.
I agree with the tone of your post, Mark. But I fear what the long term impact could be.
The changing marketplace in baseball seems to be to lock up your young stars (or potential stars) to a long term, less than maximum value contract playing on their fear of injury or some sort of social faux pas which would dramatically impact their earning potential. The game of the owners seems to be designed to keep players from becoming unrestricted free agents before they have moved into their thirties.
Because everyone now assumes that these players will have rapidly declining skill sets and are thus a terrible investment on a four or five year contract, the marketplace for the proven professional has been significantly reduced. There have been numerous contracts of this nature signed late in the free agent season and just before the start of the regular season.
The more often this occurs, the more reluctant all players become to test the free agent market and the more easily the owners can force even aging stars who have proven ongoing performance stats and limited injury history to accept short term contracts at $$$ below their value in an open marketplace.
Should this trend continue into the next labor contract, I see this as a real issue that the players would be driven to want rectified because it will eventually effect every player at one or more points in their careers. I also fear that this issue would drive the best athletes in America and other nations of all ages to pursue other sports through their teen years and avoid the sport which would decrease the quality of players in the decades ahead.
The owners need to think of what is best for the sport of BASEBALL for the next 150 years rather than what is best for their wallets now and in the short term. I wonder if there is a need for the players to have a person with the same decision making power as the Commissioner so that decisions have to be equitably agreed upon by a 2/3 majority of all parties involved. Just a thought to be pondered, don’t you think?
59, If you were in charge. the Dodgers would have an exhausted pitching staff by the time they get to mid-May. Check out the schedule, relax and enjoy the ride. I don’t know if we have a good manager the results overall make me glad that I’m a Dodgers fan.
Some poster on here are in for a long season, the Dodgers may lose another 60 games before this season is over! No team wins every game. All teams lose some games they should have won.
I said it last night, and I’ll stick by it, because my gut tells me Yimi García hasn’t got it when the game is on the line.
Give him the non stressful innings, and mopping up duties.
Unless you want to exhaust a pitching staff that has not been extended beyond 5 innings / 75 pitches during spring training, you can’t expect them to go 7 or 8 innings or throw 100 pitches during the early part of the regular season without triggering muscle and joint strains which could lead to more intensive injuries. It is difficult at this point for a manager to balance the task of winning with building a pitching staff which can perform throughout the course of a 162 game season. Relief pitchers probably have some of the most difficult challenges during a game thrown at them and are known to possess some of the most delicate psyches in sports. The bullpen will occasionally blow a game, accept it and move on. We as fans need to do the same because I know I am not without fault and should not cast stones.
Tonight’s lineup:
Joc
Seager
JT
Belly
AJ
Muncy
CT3 (2b)
Barnes
Maeda
I was extremely tired last night, and can’t say that I was fully concentrating on the game I was watching. I don’t know why Stripling was taken out of the game, but in fact, Alexander got out of the inning unscathed, and the Dodgers took the game into the 7th inning with a 3 run lead.
And bringing Kelly into the game in the 7th made perfect sense. If not, then why did the Dodgers sign him for 3 years at $25 million? Was it a bad signing? Only time will tell. However, given the investment the Dodgers made in him, it stands to reason that he was brought into the game. The Dodgers are not as good as they were on Thursday night, nor as bad as they appeared to be last night. And we also know that over time there are likely to be personnel moves. If mistakes were made in putting this team together, we’ll know for sure soon enough.
Didn’t the Red Sox open last year with a pair of losses?
What a night last night! I was with friends watching Duke act like Harry Houdini again. Whew! Tomorrow they have to beat Michigan State. I was watching the Dodgers game on my i-Phone and stopped when it was 3-0. I finished watching this afternoon.
What a horrible ending and bullpen. I don’t put it on Doc – I put it on the players. If he puts you in, you have to execute. The bullpen has been horrid overall. Alexander was fine, so was Jansen as was Ferguson.. Baez, Kelly, Garcia and Stewart look lost and Floro was Yawn.
It’s 2 games, so it’s not a pattern, although I know the rope won’t be long with some of these guys. There’s too many good arms in the minors. I am not sure why he took out Chicken Strip, but I suspect there’s more to that story.
Players can make a manager look very good or very bad!
This team is built for power, but Dodger Stadium by night is not.
So our left handed platoons went 1-9 last night, I agree with AC in how I would like to see the Dodgers ride the hot hand for once instead of the computer print outs, there is a human element to this game that seems to be forgotten. Joc went 1-4 after coming in late so I don’t count that, a lot of mojo is lost coming off the bench after crushing the ball the night before. It would have been nice to see the same lineup with Joc, Barnes and Muncy, that’s what sucks about this day and age.
NYY already had one of the best bullpens in MLB and signed Adam Ottavino and re-signed Zack Britton during the offseason. They now have four guys who have been effective closers; Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, and Betances, with perhaps the best middle reliever in MLB, Chad Green. In NYY’s Game 1, they trot out Ottavino (1.1), Britton (1.0), and Chapman (1.0)…3.1 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K.
OTOH, the Dodgers signed Joe Kelly, Donnie Hart, Adam McCreery, Jaime Schultz, Justin Grimm, Kevin Quackenbush, and Josh Smoker to address their bullpen woes. I expect any day now the Dodgers will announce that they have signed one or two of Dan Jennings, AJ Ramos, Ryan Madson, Blake Wood, Boone Logan…Or maybe trade for Brian Duensing who was just DFA by the Cubs.
At least Dylan Floro was allowed to work himself out of trouble in the 11th and 12th, and came through. Baez was not allowed to get himself out of trouble, undoubtedly because there were enough relievers still available at the time, and that did not work out. The Dodgers were out of position players by the 10th (3 of the 4 gone by the 8th), and were down to their last reliever (Stewart).
16 runs scored, 12 due to HRs…3 2-run HRs, and 6 solo shots. 4 runs scored other than via HR. Tell me again how this team will have a different approach? I said before the season began that this team was built for power and not for moving runners over, or for their bat to ball skills. Power and starting pitching are the strengths of this team, and relief pitching and bat to ball/move runner up situational hitting will be a work in progress.
Tonight and tomorrow the Dodgers get two RHP (Godley and Weaver)and then should face three LHP against SFG…Pomerantz, MadBum, Holland.
The bullpen is half the problem, the other 90 % is Roberts.
The starting pitching has been great so far and we have not even seen Urias and Buehler yet. I am predicting big things from Urias this year, I don’t think he will be the one going to the bullpen. I think Maeda and Hill would form a devastating L/R combo in the pen, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Pollock showed me some really good things and will be a huge addition. Several times players went the other way and beat the shift. Strip had 2 sacrifices and Joc dropped a bunt for a hit. Doc is going to use everyone and Verdugo will get his chances. Jason had a nice PH last night. He was making hard contact the last week of ST.
If the past is prologue Barnes, CT3 and Verdugo should start against Godley and Joc, Martin and Kike should sit. Lamb and Marte have hurt Maeda in the past.
Doc has to get his act together. This is not Spring training. He got over confident. This Dbacks would be easy and start making changes like little league game.
The problem is that our starting pitching even with Kershaw and Hill out of our rotation, is the strength of this team.
I know sometimes starting pitchers might wear down, but Stripling was pitching a seemless game last night.
While our starting pitching is our strength, I wouldn’t say the same about our bullpen, so why are we so eager to go to our bullpen, which compared to our starting pitching, is one of our weaknesses
We should go with our strength, especially when our strength is pitching a seamless game.
Stripling didn’t have to many touchy situations to pitch out of last night, so he wasn’t over stressed.
And when is Roberts going to learn, sometimes it is best to leave alone.
Sometimes it appears that Roberts is not watching the same game, that everyone else is watching.
You have to question why doc took out Stripling. There may have been reasons we don’t know like prearranged pitch count etc. the strength of our team is starting pitching…. the weakness continues to be our bullpen. However, Alexander did his job, and Baez should have gotten 3 outs. I didn’t see the game so I don’t know what happened but it was a little league mistake on somebody’s part. Kelley blew the game once only to have doc leave him in to blow another lead. He is quick to take starters out…..
It was a fail on doc, relievers, but also once again situational hitting. Jocs failure to get a bunt down with runners on first and second with nobody out was a real downer. In order to win that 95-100 games you can’t blow these types of games. Arizona is terrible for a professional team. We blew the game plain and simple. If you need a bullpen guy today who do you have confidence in? Is it Garcia, floro,Stewart, Baez , I doubt. Alexander is 3-2 on every hitter, Kelley the same. Very quickly it’s obvious the bullpen is not ready for the workload and really no one inspires confidence. Kelley has got to be the guy. All of a sudden this bullpen looks very shaky as they did in spring training.
I really don’t think spring training stats mean anything. But, other than Garcia, who had a good spring the rest and Garcia look shaky. Stripling sure would have made the bullpen look much better. I think stripling deserves to start over maeda. The bullpen as currently constructed is not reliable. I’m sorry if this appears too negative but our bullpen weakness has already been exposed.
This from Ross Stripling. He wasn’t aware of any pregame plan or pitch count. No wonder he was surprised.
“They didn’t tell me anything ahead of time, if I was on a 75-pitch count or anything like that. I knew that I was on regular rest heading into the next start and that they might limit it a little bit because of that, but I didn’t know anything ahead of time. When I got pulled, they just said that was the plan. … I was a little bit (surprised) just in that it was a quick ground out, 3-0 lead. (But) understand you’ve got the heart of the lineup coming up and a lefty warming up in the bullpen, so I get it. I was a little bit surprised but I understand. That’s just the way it went.”
For the record, when Baez put 2 on, I said out loud (to nobody around) to KEEP BAEZ IN!! Let’s see what he’s got, and let’s see if he can get himself out of this mess. By taking out, Doc let Baez know ‘we trust you, but don’t REALLLLYYYYYY trust you” And it backfired.
I pin this loss on Doc for the dumb move, and to Kelly for failing twice. But whatever. We all know this will happen many more times this year.
Last night’s game:
AJ Pollock +1 WAR
Doc Roberts -1 WAR
Maeda might be pitching to keep a spot in the rotation tonight. Stripling looks great and already staked his claim to a rotation spot last night.
The Dodgers can add two pitchers to the bullpen when Kershaw and Hill return. Urias will get a chance to do what Stripling did before K and H return.
The pitch count for Strip could have been worked out with Honey before the game and Stripling might have lost speed on his fastball. I will give Doc the benefit of the doubt on Stripling but not on Baez.
Yes it was a pivotal part of the game and Kelly was obtained for those spots but Baez already had the feel of the game and had a low pitch count. Putting Kelly in when he did exposed Robert’s weakness again, says me sitting on my couch drinking a cup of coffee.
The Dodger hitters had many chances to win this game and didn’t. They wasted lots of walks and base runners.
Everyone is acting as if the same line up on opening day wasn’t the exact same one that we ended the game with today. It was the same lineup and everyone got at least 3 at bats,and guess what we couldn’t hit, we couldn’t get any runners in, sure the pitching wasn’t that good, we still had our “opening day” lineup out there for half the game and we still didn’t win. Baseball is hard, not every game is going to be like opening day. One a side not Verdugo looks comfortable at the plate, hope he gets the start tonight.
Facing a right hander tonight. What are the chances on Doc using the same exact lineup that he did on opening day? My thoughts are 0%.
The bullpen was half bad. That is, half of the guys that pitched were bad. I want to punch Doc in the face. Ray got 102 pitches, Strip got 76 and was pulled for absolutely no reason.
This loss is on Doc. Playing the hot hand, or going with matchups? Freese and Taylor or Pederson and Muncy? That was the first move that didn’t work out. I’m just gonna pass on the batting order with Freese hitting 3rd.
The second mistake with Doc pulling Strip. I don’t understand this at all. Pitch count was fine. Got the first hitter in the 6th on what, two pitches? Then out comes Doc. Alexander did his job, but should have done in it in the 7th instead of the 6th and he should have pitched the entire inning.
The third mistake was pulling Baez and putting in Kelly. He didn’t have to pull Baez at all, he got three outs in the inning, one that Martin couldn’t hold onto. $hit happens, then a walk. Let him stay out there and finish it. But no, because Doc has to bore me to death with more mid inning and unnecessary pitching changes. The rest is history.
It’s going to be a long frustrating season because Doc loves to make unnecessary moves which are counter productive, irritating and unexplainable. Now we have a tired bullpen. Thanks Dumba$$! And he’s a bad driver!
I foolishly did stay up and watch the whole darn thing.
Was glad to see performance of both Pollack and Martin. Do hope they both keep it up.
I sure hope Doc doesn’t.
Still has that trigger finger.
Was there any valid reason not to let Stripling go a little longer? Stripling pitched and played a great game. Well done.
Bad performance by Kelly. Why throw that breaking ball 3-2 big mistake. It was flat and on the middle. I am not a big fan of bringing in a pitcher with runners on base specially Kelly making his debut but even in the next inning he gave up a run and did not look good. But i do not understand why Roberts did not let Strippling finish the 6th inning. Why the short leash all the time ? I get it season is starting but this looks like a game 4 of WS bringing the bullpen and messing up the game.. He was pitching good. But Kelly did not look good. If you see his numbers last year 4.37 ERA that is not good. I really did not watch the whole game after that because it was late but bad game. Bullpen messed it up. First 2 games bullpen has been bad.
2 games – 10 runs given up, 9 by the bullpen. Spin it anyway you want, the bullpen problems have not been addressed. Oh, and of course pull a starting pitcher after only 76 pitches, even if pitching a shutout and nobody on base. How many pitches is Buehler going to be limited to on Sunday, 50?
I was pleased to see the progress of Yimi Garcia this Spring. I still am. But I cautioned, we need to wait and see what he can do in back to back games which is what a reliever MUST do. No reliever went back to back games in ST, and a starting pitcher tossing a shutout is pulled after 76 pitches. What is ST for again?
Of course, I am a moron for questioning genius. Oh well. We have a dry day today in Sacramento. Off to soccer and LL games.
Two takes from yesterday’s game:
For 2019, the role of Yasmani Grandal will be played by Russel Martin.
Joe Kelly really hates the Dodgers. He’ll do what ever it takes to make them lose.