I was stuck on the tarmac in Houston for three and a half hours Monday evening so I pulled out my Kindle and re-read “The Best Team Money Can Buy” by Molly Knight, and a few things really jumped out at me. But the biggest one is that Clayton Kershaw is a creature of habit… maybe borderline OCD. On the days of the games he pitches, he has a very precise schedule or routine and order in which he does things, in fact it is nearly to the minute on much of it.
- Pregame strategy with Rick Honeycutt is 5:15 to 5:30;
- Heat packs are placed on his shoulder, elbow and back at 5:58;
- At 6:20 he walks into the dugout;
- He starts warming up at 6:23;
- He starts playing catch at 6:40; and
- on and on!
This is what has made him great… his obsessive attention to detail and hard work. His pre-game routine is the same EVERY GAME! But Molly Knight goes on and writes this:
“Most starting pitchers develop a game plan based upon the weaknesses of the hitters they face that night, but it is subject to change. Greinke, for instance, pitches by feel: he corrected course and bounced ideas off A.J. Ellis in between innings. Not Kershaw. Since his strengths typically beat a batter’s strengths, once his game plan was set he didn’t often deviate course. ‘We’re like the pit crew’, said Ellis. ‘He comes to us when he needs something, otherwise we don’t interfere.'”
Clayton Kershaw’s greatest strength is also his greatest weakness. He develops a game plan, and due to his immense talent and ability, he can usually execute it to a successful completion… except for maybe the playoffs. Never let it be said that he chokes – nothing could be further from the truth, but in the upcoming series against the D-Backs he will have a game plan that will be somewhat similar to former game plans against the D-Backs and if (BIG IF) he has his best stuff, he will execute his pitches and shut out Arizona.
… except, when he doesn’t always have his best stuff! If Clayton doesn’t have his best stuff and does not deviate from his game plan, then it could be a long night. As a creature of habit, Clayton may not deviate from his former pitching patterns which have been scouted ad nauseum by the Diamondbacks. This could be his undoing. Clayton needs to evolve in order to get the playoff monkey off his back. In 1988, with a 3-2 count, Kirk Gibson “knew” that Dennis Eckersley was going to throw a “backdoor slider, pardner” and he feasted on it. If Dennis Eckersley had thrown a fastball, Gibby would have been an easy out, but Kirk knew what was coming and was ready for it.
With all of the scouting and film now available, hitters have a good idea what Clayton is going to throw them. Recently, I have suggested that the Dodgers have deliberately pitched certain ways in August and September so as to obfuscate what they will do in October. I don’t know that for sure, but I believe it to be true. Time will tell. What I can tell you, is that for the Dodgers to be successful, Clayton Kershaw has to win all his starts. He is the best pitcher in baseball and to maintain that title, he has to change things up. He has to make batter-to-batter and inning-to-inning changes. He has to do something he has he has never done before. He has to step out of his comfort zone and change his pattern of pitches.
See, here’s the thing: If a hitter knows what is coming, he has a 30% to 60% chance of hitting it. Change it it! Clayton doesn’t have to go seven or eight innings, even though that would be great! He just has to own the D-Backs and he has the ability to do it. Clayton has to step out of his comfort zone, his routine, his game plan, and his pattern and that factor alone can win this series for the boys in blue!
Clayton Kershaw has to go against the grain and pitch in sequences like he has never done before. FAZ is smart. They should know this too. I’m just reminding them… you know they read this every day!
Discussion (56)
Disagree, not disagreeable
1 – Kershaw didn’t really look good after the 3rd inning. He was described by Eck as looking out of sync and I think that was right.
2 – Bellinger is really pressing – he was swinging at a lot of bad pitches and missed the good ones
3 – Turner, Seager and Puig were smoking! Barnes came through in a pinch too.
4 – I don’t have confidence in Tony Watson. Brandon Morrow’s a stud though.
5 – Grandal and Granderson were horrible up there tonight.
6 – The Dodgers blew a lot of chances to score more runs than they did – Belly and Granderson each left 4 on base. Dodgers had 18 LOB tonight. They can’t give the Snakes that many chances.
JT continues to be the Dodgers best post-season hitter. Puig looks locked in.
We will see our lefty lineup tomorrow so no Granderson and probably no Grandal.
Granderson and Grandal the last two guys I want up there. I do think Puig scores on the ball to LF but terrible AB’s.
I think I would hit Barnes for Grandal.
Ugh. I was hoping to never see that 3/4 arm slot again from Clayton. It never fools them. He hasn’t really had his slider so I’m guessing that’s why he’s pulled that look out twice.
Keep adding on!
I can’t believe this is the best TBS can do.
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This broadcasting team has done literally zero research.
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They don’t even know what pitches these guys throw.
Cody Bellinger!
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Best First Baseman in baseball!
Nice start, but I wanted that 5th run. Now I just hope that Kershaw is on tonight, and the Dodgers don’t do what they do too often, namely score a bunch of early runs, and then shut it down.
Dodgerrick-I was not criticizing Kershaw. He is a great pitcher. During the regular season Kershaw always wants to go 9 innings. Therefore, he wants to get ahead of the batters. Therefore, he would often throw a fastball pretty close to the middle of the plate. Announcers and players have felt the only good pitch you may get from Clayton is the first pitch. The play offs are different. Change it up. Going 9 innings should be the last thing on his mind. Going 6 strong innings is all that is being asked. That is all I was saying.
Taylor
Seager
Turner
Bellinger
Puig
Granderson
Grandal
Forsythe
Kershaw
From Jon Chappert of the Dodgers:
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Wanted to drop you a note to let you know about some additional pre and post-game coverage that the Dodgers will have on Facebook Live throughout this postseason. Both home and road, the team will host Dodger Insider shows on Facebook Live starting approximately ninety minutes before games and also stream SportsNet LA’s Leadoff LA (hour before gametime), Access SportsNet Dodgers (30 minutes before gametime) and the network’s hour-long postgame show. Dodger Insider shows will also air on Facebook Live on workout days with TBD times (depending on team workout schedule).
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The combined coverage, featuring SNLA’s Alanna Rizzo, John Hartung, Orel Hershiser, Nomar Garciaparra, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ned Colletti, will be produced by the Dodgers and SportsNet LA.
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Daily Postseason Schedule on the Dodgers’ Facebook Live:
:90 before Game: Dodger Insider (tonight’s Dodger Insider will start at 5:30 pm due to longer pregame ceremonies)
:60 before Game: SNLA’s Leadoff LA
:30 before Game: SNLA’s Access SportsNet Dodgers
Postgame: SNLA’s Access SportsNet Dodgers
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Hopefully you can help us spread the word about the coverage, and be sure to let us know what you think:
https://www.facebook.com/Dodgers/
Some of you asked about a Arizona Fall League preview regarding the Dodger players. Below is an article about the 2017 Dodger prospects invited to the AZ Fall League. David Hood has far more knowledge of the Dodger prospects than I do.
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https://www.truebluela.com/arizona-fall-league/2017/10/5/16428558/arizona-fall-league-dodgers-2017-preview
Fascinating and dated article on Altuve.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/jose-altuve-adjustment-to-become-dangerous-hitter-2016-7
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The money quote, IMO, is one that also helps define the current MLB game:
Altuve told Ortiz, “I’m no longer afraid of being called out on strikes. If it’s not the pitch I want, I’ll let it go. It was a matter of changing my mentality, not my swing.”
I really hope if Kershaw has a rough 5th or 6th inning, Doc pulls him. We have the bullpen to back him up, don’t let him hang out there for one more inning just because he’s Kershaw. Done that one time too many over the years. I will take a Kershaw shut-out going into the 5th and 6th and call it good.
Farmer was the only one I missed on. I had Joc on the roster. The only possible reason to have Farmer is to be able to start Barnes and Grandal together, Hummmmm….
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Could it be that we may see Forsythe, Grandal and Barnes together in the lineup? Farmer is simply the Emergency Catcher. He has no experience with the Dodgers pitchers. Puig doesn’t hit LH pitching this year.
If Kersh is throwing 3 pitches with command it’s an easy win for Dodgers. Snakes can guess all they want. Pretty big if though.
Well from my prediction yesterday, I was correct about the first 24. Farmer is on the roster. However, I missed #25. They took Stripling.
LAD NLDS Roster set. Farmer and Baez in…Joc and Locastro not. 13 position players, 12 pitchers.
I have ordered a Kershaw jersey for this year’s post-season. This is the year that he gets it done.
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Here’s Houston Mitchell’s observation about Kershaw in the post-season compared to other pitchers who have won at least 3 Cy Youngs:
Roger Clemens, 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 2 World Series titles
Randy Johnson, 7-9, 3.50, 1.140, 1 World Series title, 1 World Series MVP
Steve Carlton, 6-6, 3.26, 1.480, 2 World Series titles
Greg Maddux, 11-14, 3.27, 1.242, 1 World Series title
Clayton Kershaw, 4-7, 4.55, 1.157, 0 World Series title
Sandy Koufax, 4-3, 0.95, 0.825, 3 World Series titles, 2 World Series MVPs
Pedro Martinez, 6-4, 3.46, 1.080, 1 World Series title
Jim Palmer, 8-3, 2.61, 1.214, 3 World Series titles
Tom Seaver, 3-3, 2.77, 1.086, 1 World Series title
Kershaw has the worst ERA, the worst winning percentage and is the only pitcher with three Cy Youngs to not have a World Series title.
Why start the game at 10:30 pm eastern? Don’t they know there are many Dodger fans on the east coast? How many can stay up until 2 am and then go to work the next morning?
*forget
Who wants to take a pre game hit at the stadium tonight????? Anything to help calm me down
More than any other athlete, baseball players are creatures of habit and of superstition. These things lead to confidence which lead to performance on the field. To put it one way, I don’t want Clayton Kershaw to change the things that have made him great. If he has to do the same thing the same way before he pitches, and that gives him comfort and confidence, why change it? I remember Wade Boggs started eating chicken each day when he had a good game in the minors after doing so and he never changed it in a Hall of Fame career.
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Second, I don’t think that Kershaw should be expected to unveil a new pitch for the playoffs. And why should he? If pitching the way that he does has made him the best pitcher of his generation, why would you ever change it? Steve Carlton didn’t suddenly stop throwing his slider in the playoffs; Koufax didn’t change his pitching patterns in the World Series.
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As to the criticism of Kershaw by Idahoal (Kershaw is too focused on getting ahead in the count) in a study by Craig Burney in The Hardball Times in 2004, the author established the importance of getting strike 1 with the 1st pitch. The statistical findings? Only 7.3% of pitches thrown for 1st pitch strikes were hit for base hits, and for the rest of the at bat, the batter’s chance of a safe hit dropped from .266 to .239. I agree that you don’t want to become too predictable, but one of the reasons that Kershaw is great is his great control and his ability to keep runners off base as a result. (his WHIP is the lowest of the modern era as a result – it is actually 1.0 currently.)
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Others on this board have claimed that post-season success is totally random; i have argued that it is not, but for those who think that it is, why would it be random for a team but not for an individual player?
Last night I watched the Cleveland game. Bauer had a shut out for 6 innings and he was taken out. The bull pen finished the game. This is how play offs are managed differently. Mattingly never trusted his bull pen. He let Kershaw go too long several times. It was not good. The Yankees had their starter out of the game before the first inning ended in the WC game. With the days off in the play offs, your bull pen pitchers should be able to go one inning every game. The bull pen will win or lose the play offs for us.
I agree with you Mark and Hawkeye. Every day is different for an athlete. If it is a normal day Kershaw will be at 93 for his fastball and 87 for his slider. However, not every day is normal. Good athletes realize this quickly when they do not have their good stuff and adjust. This is what I fear the most about Kershaw. He does not like to adjust quickly. Second, he wants to pitch 9 innings. He wants to get ahead of the batter. Quite often his first pitch is a fastball right down the middle. He needs to change this up. In the play offs you need to go as hard as you can for 6 innings and let the bull pen finish it off. If you do not trust your bull pen , we will not win the WS.
Here’s what I’m watching for Kershaw. Is he too amped up. Is his fastball at 95+ instead of working at his usual 91-93. Same with his slider. It’s much more effective at 87 than a flat one at 90 mph.
Great article Mark. From your lips (errrr….finger tips on the keyboard) to Clayton’s mind. Dirtbags going to be tough I think.