Averages Lie!
A statistician had one foot in a bucket of ice water and one foot in a bucket of boiling water. He said, My feet feel great, on average. He meant that the average temperature of the water in the two buckets was comfortable. This may be true, but the average temperature doesn t tell the entire story. If you put one foot in ice water and the other in boiling water, on
A statistician had one foot in a bucket of ice water and one foot in a bucket of boiling water. He said, “My feet feel great, on average.” He meant that the average temperature of the water in the two buckets was comfortable. This may be true, but the average temperature doesn’t tell the entire story. If you put one foot in ice water and the other in boiling water, on average you should be comfortable, but I guarantee that you aren’t.
So, far in this series against the D-Bags, the Dodgers are averaging 12 runs a game which means they should have won both games easily, but they only won one. In game one, they needed to score seven runs to win, but they only scored two. I game two, they needed just two runs to win but they score an additional twenty more! How crazy is that?
Sometimes with this team, it seems that either no one hits or everyone hits. On average, that looks pretty good, but looks are deceiving. It is somewhat troubling to me that a team with this type of offensive capability does not bring their bats to the ballpark on a regular basis. Like everything else, it’s probably Doc’s fault! I think Corey Seager will be back in a week or so and then I will have to listen to fans complain about how he can’t hit, because it probably will take a few weeks to get his swing back, just like it is taking Cody time to get his back.
FYI, Cody only got the one hit last night (a HR), but he did not strike out. He is getting close. Most of you wanted to get rid of AJ Pollock a week ago. Now he is second to Max Muncy is Slugging and third on the team in HR. You have to learn to look at the Big Picture, not just one game. The Dodgers are the first team in MLB history to have a pair of two-slam games in the same season. AJ Pollock and Matt Beaty each hit grand slams in a 16-4 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee on May 2.
The Dodgers were averaging 3.8 runs over their previous five games, during which they went 1-4. They nearly tripled that average in two innings on Saturday. As much moaning and groaning as I have been hearing about the Dodgers this year, only one team (the Giants) have more win than the Boys in Blue. They have 56 wins and the Dodgers have 55. This is one damn good team and they haven’t even tapped their potential as yet.
Starting Pitching
The news about Clayton Kershaw was great and he will have a nice rest during the All-Star Break and probably come back the week of the 19th. The Dodgers will likely do the same thing with Julio Urias at some point. David Price pitched three innings and could have probably pitched another one, but that is how you “build a player up” without injuring them… slowly! Remember, he has not started since 2019! Give it time.
I think JoJo Gray will be in LA sooner than later, barring any setbacks, he will likely make another start in OKC and then make his next one in LA. Last night he went four scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit and no walks while striking out four. Get back, JoJo! Quacks had another save last night at OKC (just saying). By the last week of July, this should be the rotation:
- Striker Buehler
- Clayton Kershaw
- Julio Urias
- Tony Ginsolin
- David Price or JoJo Gray
Let’s not forget Ryan Pepiot, who went 4 innings last night with 6 K’s and 3 BB. He allowed just one hit and one run (1.77 ERA). I wonder if he moves to OKC soon? Speaking of Starters, Bobby Miller went four innings for Great Lakes last night, allowing five hits and two runs. Not spectacular, but solid.
Kaybear
I still think he would be a huge asset to this team with his bat-to-ball skills. He would compliment a lot of the “swing-and-miss” guys. I will still push for him, although it involves trading Austin Barnes who has not done anything wrong. Bring on the Kaybear!
Trevor Bauer
I have read a lot of drivel from morons at other blogs blasting the Dodgers for not suspending Trevor Bauer and instead, waiting for the Commish to act. Here’s the way it is: The Dodgers can’t suspend Bauer on their own volition because MLB holds that authority under the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, which was enacted in 2015. The team can only act if Commissioner Rob Manfred transfers disciplinary authority to them. So, shut up with your righteous indignation and group-think “woke frenzy” and crawl back into your holes… and wait!
Also, to be clear, the Dodgers cannot void Bauer’s contract…. at least right now. So, shut up with “The Dodgers should have done this or that.” They did all they could do. The DA will likely get the case when the Pasadena Police have completed their investigation and if they charge him, then he will have to face a trial. If I had to predict, I would say that he will not be charged. However, that does not mean that MLB cannot suspend him. No one has a clue how this turns out, but I would wager that the odds are 50 : 50 he comes back this year.
The LA Times wrote this about the case:
The woman’s request for a restraining order against Bauer was filed by Marc Garelick of Meyer, Olson, Lowy & Meyers, a Los Angeles-based family law firm. Garelick manages the firm’s Orange County office.
According to Garelick’s bio, his specialty is “highly contentious and sophisticated litigation in family law courts.” He says he helps clients in particular with decisions on whether to pursue a settlement or litigate cases. Garelick didn’t respond to The Times when asked whether he would continue representing the woman should the case go to civil or criminal court.
Garelick is a “shakedown artist.” Pure and simple. I am not taking sides, but it seems this investigation is coming to an end very soon. I would not rule Bauer being back in the rotation by the start of August… or not! Again, we hurry up and wait!
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Discussion (106)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Muncy bomb for the win.
Every time I see Alexander enter a game I expect the worst. He has zero command of his pitches.
Bellinger’s been living off his laurels
As Vinny would say what have you done for me lately
In the second half when Seager returns, Bellinger should be batting sixth. Right now he does not deserve to be batting 4th. Another missed opportunity between Lux and Bellinger to tie the game. Pitiful!
This game seems to be following a familiar script
The bullpen strikes again.
By the way Bellinger swung so hard earlier today that he landed on his knees, there’s no reason for that to happen unless you are swinging too damn hard.
When was the last time Lux did anything positive at bat.
My prediction at the beginning of the season sure hasn’t panned out. I predicted the offense would be good enough to carry a potential slumping Lux.
I can’t stand all these shift hits.
Betts going into the break on a positive note
Gonsolin not sharp, defense not helping
I give him credit though he’s battling
Everybody on the team is available today so there is no reason for any dumb Doc moves or to lose this game to the sorry Diamondbacks.
On a more serious note, Denver police arrested 4 people who were allegedly planning a Las Vegas style attack during the All Star game festivities. They were alerted by a hotel employee about weapons and ammo in a room at the hotel. Later the FBI said that there was no threat to the game. There was also drugs involved.
A little MLB Draft tivia. It is very impressive for a high school have a first round draft pick. To have two and your high school will get a reputation of having a very gifted baseball program and worthy to watch. Marcelo Mayer is the presumptive favorite to be selected 1/1 in this evening’s MLB draft. He is a SS from Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, CA. If he is in fact to be chosen by the Bucs as 1/1, he will become the second first overall high school player drafted out of that East Lake HS. In June 2000, the Florida Marlins selected Eastlake HS 1st baseman, Adrian Gonzalez, as the first overall pick.
There have been players from 27 different high schools selected 1/1, since the genesis of the June draft in 1965. 10 were from the State of California, while 3 were from Georgia, and 2 each from Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina. So it is rare indeed when 2 are drafted first overall from the same state, much less same high school. The closest any other HS has come to having a player drafted 1/1 was when Hunter Greene, Notre Dame HS, Sherman Oaks, CA was selected 1/2 by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017. In 1968, Tim Foli was selected 1/1 from the same Notre Dame HS.
Vanderbilt University has had two players drafted 1/1: David Price (2007) and Dansby Swanson (2015). But the king of the 1/1 selections is Arizona State University with 4:
Rick Monday (1965) (KC)
Floyd Bannister (1976) (Houston)
Bob Horner (1978) (Atlanta)
Spencer Torkelson (2020) Detroit)
This will be the Pirates 5th 1/1 selection, tying them with most overall with Houston, Mets, and Padres. Seattle and Tampa Bay have four 1/1. Seven teams have never had a 1/1: Dodgers, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Giants, Cardinals, and Blue Jays. Although I am certain that the Dodgers would have preferred to have been 1/1 in 1993 instead of 1/2. Instead of Westminster Christian HS (FL) SS Alex Rodriguez, the Dodgers were forced to select Wichita State RHP, Darren Dreifort. So close.
Final Mock Draft Predictions:
MLB.com (both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo) – Matheu Nelson, C, Florida St.
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) – Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Baseball American (Carlos Collazo) – Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
The Athletic (Keith Law) – Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL)
FanGraphs (Eric Logenhagen and Kevin Goldstein) – Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of Ohio – They now have Max Muncy going to the A’s. Could be déjà vu. Oakland drafts a Max Muncy, releases him, and is then signed by LAD. It worked once.
Sporting News – Peyton Stovall, INF, Haughton HS (LA)
FanGraphs now has Max Muncy going to the A’s. Could be déjà vu. Oakland drafts a Max Muncy, releases him, and is then signed by LAD. It worked once.
IMO, the Dodgers are in somewhat of a quagmire. There are maybe 10-15 potentially elite draft picks, one and half rounds of mediocre 1st and 2nd round talent (compared to previous years and next year), no 2nd round pick, and very low bonus budget. There is no consensus amongst the “experts” as to what the Dodgers are looking at. College bat, college arm, high school bat, high school arm. Rounds three thru twenty are considered decent talent compared to previous drafts. So the Dodgers have no chance at an elite talent and no 2nd round pick. Where the Dodgers have done well in the past is in the later rounds, so I might expect a low ball 1st round and look to exploit rounds 3-10. But nobody knows what AF and Billy Gasparino are thinking.
I can understand the logic of Callis and Mayo. Matheu Nelson may in fact be the best player available when they select, and he does not scream overslot. He is arguably a top college power bat and did so as a catcher. Agreed that the Dodgers have Keibert Ruiz and Diego Cartaya as Top 100 talent in their system. But he could slide into top ten for LAD.
I hope that Chris Collazo’s (Baseball America) mock draft does not come to fruition. Jud Fabian is a Jeren Kendall part two. Great defensive CF with poor bat to ball skills but BIG power potential. Dodgers fall in love with this type; Jeren Kendall, DJ Peters, and Mitch Hansen come to mind.
Who does LAD tend to develop better than most? Pitching. There are a dozen or so pitchers who could line up and be the Dodgers pick at 29. Two HS pitchers that the Dodgers may be tempted to go overslot for are:
RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, Ft. Lauderdale, Fl. – Committed to Florida
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ – Committed to Florida
Neither are considered in the elite class, and both could slide to 29.
I do not expect the Dodgers to select a high school position player, but those that are supposedly being considered are:
Peyton Stovall, INF, Haughton HS (LA) – Committed to Arkansas
Max Muncy, INF, Thousand Oaks HS – Committed to Arkansas
Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Brookline, Mass) – Committed to Vanderbilt
James Wood, OF IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL) – Committed to Mississippi State
Izaac Pacheco, SS, Friendswood HS (TX) – Committed to Texas A&M
Carson Williams, SS, Torrey Pines, HS (San Diego) – Committed to Cal
Colson Mongomery, SS, Southridge HS (Huntingburg, IN) – Committed to Indiana
All except Stovall have been graded as Plus Power; however Stovall is considered to have the best hit tool in HS.
College pitchers that I hope slide to 29 are (my top two choices):
RHP Michael McGreevy, UCSB (21.0 years of age)
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (21.6 years of age)
McGreevy is considered a shade better at this stage than was fellow Gaucho Shane Bieber. Hoglund is recovering from TJ surgery, but is a top ten talent who could slide as did Walker Buehler.
As long as the paid “experts’ go out on a limb, I might as well give it my best shot. Drafting at 1/29, LAD selects RHP, Gavin Williams, East Carolina. Dark horse, LHP, Matt Mikulski, Fordham. Mikulski is a senior who should slide below the allotted bonus slot for the Dodgers, giving them more for the later rounds. If the Dodgers are thinking bonus savings, Mikulski makes sense.
Just want to put in a good word for a guy named Justin Lorber who does his Dodger-related work under the name Future Dodgers.
He does very extensive work on Dodger prospects and has an amazing spreadsheet on the draft, with both his own picks and compilations from everyone else you can think of.
For those of you on Twitter you can find him there but here is a link to his overall work. Just go to the bottom of the page to pick out whatever spreadsheet you want to look at. He’ll have extensive updates after the draft is over on Tuesday. He also keeps track of international signings.
Open on docs.google.comhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tuooytw157kjyMeY1ecRDnPq9FTGGWQOwzWSgsQpqN4/edit#gid=8821666441 – Averages: the Dodgers are 1 – 6 in walk-off games, 11 – 16 in 1 run games, 19 – 5 in “blowouts” (games decided by 5 or more runs), 1 – 8 in extra innings. When they won in 2020 and should have won in 2017 and 2019, they had numerous walk offs and seemed to win the close ones. This is why averages lie. Yeah, they’ve had injuries and all of that, but this team has suffered from bad late bullpen performance and a really inconsistent offense.
2 – Offense: – in wins, the Dodgers slash .275/.365/.481/.845. In losses, they slash .193/.295/.320/.615. In wins, they score 6.75 r/g; in losses 2.8 r/g. 4 runs/game difference between wins and losses. No matter how good the pitching is they will lose a lot of winnable games until the offense becomes more consistent.
3 – Late bullpen performance: The Dodgers are 2nd in MLB in blown saves with 18. There have been WAY TOO MANY GAMES where the likes of Uceta, Cleavinger, Jones et al have been brought in to pitch in the late innings of close games.
4 – Trevor Bauer – Mark’s stuff about MLB’s role in the disciplinary process is the same stuff that I posted a few days ago. However, (and I don’t think that makes me “woke”), Bauer put himself and his team at risk by employing very poor judgement in this situation. Period. Some strange woman approaches you from out of nowhere for rough sex and this seems like a good idea? The Dodgers invested $40MM in Bauer for the season and thought he was needed for another title run. His absence could blow the whole season for the Dodgers and that isn’t OK.
5 – Innocence and guilt: I will repeat in part what I posted before:
In a legal context, innocence has to do with a judicial determination which could affect life or liberty. The trier of fact (usually a jury) gets to make the decision. The legal standard is “beyond a reasonable doubt”. The jury will only get to consider evidence which has been offered by an attorney and has been admitted into evidence by a judge, so not all information gets considered.
Major League Baseball is not a jury. The presumption of innocence does not apply to its determinations. The limitation of what evidence that it may consider when reaching a decision about what to do with a player does not apply either. MLB can consider investigations conducted by attorneys, the police, private investigators, or others.
The evidentiary standard “beyond a reasonable doubt” doesn’t apply either. In non-criminal proceedings, the standard is usually “a preponderance of the evidence”, meaning more likely than not – a sort of 51% standard.
Unless MLB limits itself to only making a decision based on what the criminal justice system does (they don’t have to and probably won’t) then there are many possible outcomes here, but it doesn’t look good for Bauer or the Dodgers.
Pablo Lopez strikes out first nine batters in game today for Marlins
Latest Baseball America Mock has Cusick to the Dodgers.
I am unclear if that’s what they “hear” or what they think would be the best fit.
Buried in all that hitting was Barnes 0-4
Okay, lot to digest.
While I believe Ruiz will be up at some point this summer and is no doubt ready to contribute, I wouldn’t trade Barnes.
I believe Bellinger will again become a dynamic hitter. But trying to make an analysis based on a pandemic shortened season or another riddled with injuries doesn’t seem to be a logical approach. I definitely wouldn’t trade him for prospects. He had some big homeruns in 2020 and some incredible defensive plays. Unfair to judge him coming off shoulder surgery, then a fractured leg.
Interesting that both Callis and Mayo have the Dodgers taking Matheu Nelson, the Florida State catcher, the power too great to pass up. Would seem like an odd choice since the Dodgers seem to loaded with catchers in the system, but they no doubt approach with a best player available mentality.
Story in the LA Times with Dave Roberts talking about all the ailments Mookie Betts has been dealing with (forearm, shoulder and back), thinks not attending the all-star game is a good thing from a healing perspective.
Lately Betts has looked better.
I’m still waiting for the Trevor Bauer investigations by the Pasadena police and MLB to wrap up, dropping shoes and all. Will it be next week, a month from now, no idea? Lots of speculation. I get that.
Not sure what to expect from the Dodgers today. Headed for Dodger Stadium, hope they still have runs left in the bag.
Definitely looking forward to the draft. Just don’t have much interest in the All-Star game. I do believe moving the game from Atlanta to Denver was shameful. Not a good look. Best for the game to stay out of politics.
Hey, I liked the AJ Pollock signing although many didn’t. He adds to the line-up, has good days and bad. But when he’s good sometimes he can carry a team and the power is definitely back. Pollock’s problem was never his bat or defensive skills, but staying on the field — lot of freak injuries.
Good write-up today, Mark.
“So, shut up with your righteous indignation and group-think “woke frenzy” and crawl back into your holes… and wait!“
Not helpful Mark.
Jo Jo might be able to get Major League hitters out. I suspect the second time through lineups will be challenging. I expect a trade for an innings eating veteran. philjones said it accurately, we still need 1.5 Major League starters. Gray might be the .5. The 1 will likely come by trade.
Mark, I agree with most of your post above. But, I’m more in the TM camp on the Bellinger situation. One HR and no KO’s is nice but unfortunately, it’s been a one off recently. It’s amazing that two of our best players, Muncy and Taylor, were quietly traded for from the depths of the Seattle and Oakland (very surprising with their advent of moneyball) systems. We don’t need no stinkin’ drafts. Scout the minor leagues of other teams and trade for their overlooked prospects. The recent Vesia and Cleavinger trades appear to be positive moves. Though I don’t get the Jake Reed addition.
With starting pitching I went over the list of possible trade options. Most of the top 10 have been recently or currently injured. So, I say go for it and try for Scherzer. Obviously it would help for this year and might be an option for next year depending on the Bauer and Kershaw situations. And, if Bauer returns this year then the starting staff will be that much stronger. But, with Bauer that’s a big if. Going into the playoffs with Scherzer, Kershaw, and Buehler with Urias, Gonsolin, and Price moved to the BP. Add in Bauer… forget about it. An impossible wall for any playoff opponent to climb.
Agree strongly about getting Ruiz to the Dodgers. Like Mark mentioned his high contact rate would be a welcome addition. Get Smith some OF practice time just for depth. Send down Barnes or include him a trade. This silliness about him being Kershaw’s personal catcher should stop. Kershaw’s numbers this year don’t warrant non-productive offensive player such as Barnes.
With the Trevor Bauer situation we need to wait and see. These type of situations never make much sense on why and how they happen. All I can say is what causes a grown man with the skills, intelligence, responsibility, and money to put himself into this type of situation? Social media and stupidity strike again.
philjones please reconsider your hiatus
Today’s lineup and final game before the break :
RF Mookie
1B Max
3B Justin
CF Cody
C Will
2B Chris
LF AJ
SS Gavin
P Tony
Hopefully we saved some runs for today from last night’s debacle
Two Zach’s in the lineup last night. I’m thinking Reks is being showcased for trade bait. I like Belli hitting down the order until he figures things out.
Anyone think we held back Gray on putpose, just to keep him fresh for the second half?
I predict that if the Dodgers average 20 runs per game for the rest of the season, they should win most of their remaining games.