6 Minutes

The Dodgers need to put bellinger at first and let agon play little. He’s career is done, he’ll get injured again. Bellinger doesn’t need to be in the outfield, they have to many outfielders as it is. They do need another power hitter that can hit against left hand. the bullpen will be a question mark. grandal probably won’t be trade unti midseason. I think after season the Dodgers are goning need to get harper and a top ace pitcher, he will be better then joc or puig. The WS lost should be a wake up call. The Rockies, D’backs , will give the Dodgers a run for the division. Just saying. If the Dodgers don’t win the WS next season, shit will need to change.

I thought the penalty was reduced but after reading the new rules, which are more complicated than tie breakers for the NFL playoffs: Because the Dodgers were over the luxury tax last season they would lose a 2nd and 5th round pick if they sign anyone with a QO and would also lose $1 M in international bonus pool money. Signing two such free agents would cost a 3rd and a 6th as well. 1st round picks are exempt unless a team has more than one, then they lose the lower 1st rounder as well. Pretty stiff penalty in addition to the inevitable overpay, I agree Faz will not sign anyone with a QO. Good thing they are pretty good at trades.

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http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Take this to the bank:

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The Dodgers will not sign anyone who got a QO.

Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.

I copied and pasted that for everyone. I didn’t actually listen to the interview today. I haven’t fully recovered from the WS loss and haven’t been able to bring myself to listen as much yet. At least the Hawkeyes knocked the snot out of Ohio St on Saturday.

Mark, when you mentioned Alex Verdugo and Juan Pierre in the same sentence, you clearly weren’t thinking about their arms.

I’d have to look this one up, but didn’t Cain get a QO from the Royals. If so, that would rule him out of the Dodgers plans.

Here’s a juicy fan fiction rumor that I came across:

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Pederson and Grandal for Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Also according to Vegas, the top 5 Otani landing spots are the Mariners, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, and Yankees. Winning legacies with strong Japanese communities in town.

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Finally good look at the Dodgers framing surplus:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-framing-surplus/

The best MLB free agents from 2012-2013 should be a sobering reminder for everyone.

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Via MLB Trade Rumors:

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1. Zack Greinke

2. Josh Hamilton

3. Michael Bourn

4. Anibal Sanchez

5. B.J. Upton

6. Nick Swisher

7. Edwin Jackson

8. Dan Haren

9. Hiroki Kuroda

10. Kyle Lohse

BONUS #11 Angel Pagan

Brandon McCarthy has not been healthy since 2014 when he pitched 200 innings. If you are into Statistics and Probability, then you might conclude that he is due for a good year. FAZ considers stuff like that. I think there is less uncertainty with Ryu. After missing two seasons, he pitched reasonably well last year and I can see him getting better. If the Dodgers trade either player, it would be a case of selling low. Combined, they are owed less than $20 million and either one, or EVEN BOTH could have good years. There are a couple of teams who might take a chance, but we have seen that a team can never have enough pitching. If the Dodgers could get Chacin for $14 to $16 million, I think it would be a good move. I think Buehler is ready, but you never know.

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Oaks may also be ready, but you never know. Mitch White could be closer than many think and Dennis Santana could leap-frog them all with the addition of another pitch. Urias could be back by August, but you can’t count on it. As it stands, all of these guys could get looks as a starter:

Kershaw

Hill

Ryu

Wood

Maeda

Buehler

McCarthy

Oaks

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I could see Chacin but not much else….

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What about Clay Buchholtz for the pen? Sort of like Brandon Morrow…

I believe if they can find a taker for Ryu and or McCarthy they pick up a veteran RHP until Beuhler is ready. Paired with Maeda that would give the rotation more balance since the top 3 are all lefties. Urias also waits in the wings until he’s rehabbed. Stripling and Stewart are bullpen pieces to me but another team may view that differently. I still think Wilmer Font could be a very good relief pitcher with his velocity and pitch mix.

AC, I wasn’t able to reply to your question above re: Darvish and $$ because there was no reply option. As far as fair price, it would be whatever FAZ sees as good value. The WS starts not withstanding, I thought Darvish showed well against the DBacks and the Cubs. Not sure what happened in the WS (nerves?) but he will be a solid 2-4 pitcher for whoever signs him. I’m with you regarding Cobb. I feel he would be a solid addition.

I like Lorenzo Cain a lot, and I was an advocate for getting him at the trade deadline, but KC foolishly believed they could contend and would not move any of their big three FA. But the cost has been speculated to be 4 years at $70M, which is Andre Ethier money. Multiple publications have him headed to the Giants. That makes a ton of sense to have a GG caliber CF in that ballpark, and one who is a good gap hitter, with speed, and some pop. He is also a solid citizen and a clubhouse leader. Not much to dislike except the cost which the Dodgers will not spend.

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I am more intrigued with Alex Cobb than Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn to me is a steady innings eater much like Samardzija. Jim Duquette thinks he is in the 5 year $80M level while Tim Dierkes says 4 years $56M. It will probably end up somewhere in between. I think Alex Cobb offers the higher reward and higher risk. His cost should approximate (but less than) that of Lynn. Cobb is more what FAZ looks for. What makes it even more interesting is that Alex was in Friedman’s 1st amateur draft (2006 – Round 4), so he is well known. If anyone knows his value, it will be Friedman.

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I know there are many that like Chatwood. He is nearly two years younger than Chacin. Dierkes puts his value at 3 years $20M. Both Chatwood and Chacin have projected AAV at $7M. With both pitchers above a 2.0 WAR, those are more than fair values. As long as Chacin is not a Milton Bradley, I believe the Dodgers clubhouse can keep him under control. I like Chacin more because he has shown a better ability to pitch deeper into games, and for a #4 or #5 that is what you look for.

Lorenzo Cain hit .300 this season, had 5 defensive runs saved, is a good base runner and can play CF. Not sure what he would cost but I would kick the tires. I like JD more than Stanton but even the DBacks won’t bring him back at the price he wants. Of the starters in FA I like Alex Cobb, finally healthy last year and stronger towards the end of the season, and Chatwood who battles and would benefit from getting away from Coors. Chacin battles too but struck me as a hothead in the few games I watched him pitch. Lynn maybe if he passes a physical, he has a good competitive makeup but his stats fell off last year. I didn’t consider any lefties as we have enough already. I don’t see any infielders that excite me in FA this year. I could see them picking up an under the radar LH hitting utility infielder for platoon depth.

Interesting that you mentioned Chacin in next year’s rotation, because I thought the same thing when looking through the list of FAs.

However, although he had a decent season,and seemed to pitch well against us, he led the MLB in HBP, and walked em at a good rate.

Think he would be a good workhorse for the back of the rotation.

As most of you know, I was violently opposed to The Trade and the last 2 years of A-Gon have been huge decline. Crawfish was in decline from Jump Street. In 16 and 17, the Dodgers paid Ethier, Gonzo and Crawfish a combined $60+ Million for almost nothing. That’s why I have seen the error of my ways and said “NO” to Stanton. Someone will trade for him and be hamstrung by his bad contract.

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Darvish will get a huge deal. Just not from the Dodgers.

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Andrew Toles has 201 career AB’s and a .294 BA with a .341 OB%. He needs to walk more, but everything I have seen from him is good! He’s still only 25!

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Joc Pederson has thunder in his bat, but can he adjust?

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Alex Verdugo could be Tony Gwynn or Juan Pierre (minus the speed).

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What to do?

I was absolutely wrong about Alvarzez’s handedness. He definitely righthsnded. However, although not a lefty, he’s still very young, and the light could suddenly go on. I know that lots of pitcher’s like him never take the next step. But an awful lot do, and I wouldn’t surrender him in any deal that doesn’t bring back considerable talent, which Stanton is. But I also doubt that FAZ is prepared to blow up the long term plan to take on a 9-figure player.

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Darvish apparently would like to come back. I don’t know if he and/or his agent would be willing to accept a hometown discount. If he was, I wouldn’t be opposed to the Dodgers signing him to pitch in the middle to backend of the rotation. Not likely to happen, but you never know. Less likely to happen if the Dodgers the Dodgers add another high quality arm via a trade or free agency.

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I’m not as high on Toles as some others. The picture I have of him is a player with the same penchant some other Dodgers lefthanded hitters have, and that is chasing low and in breaking balls.

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I don’t see Agon being very productive. And as AC suggests, his extra base power is no longer there, and his base clogging is a definite liability.

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Not sure about our current alternatives in LF. Either bring someone in via free agency or a trade, or stay in-house and hope for the best. If they’re not going to give Verdugo a serious look, then they may as well trade him.

The Dodgers situation with Toles, Verdugo, Pederson, Taylor, Bellinger and Gonzalez offers many options.

I would not be an advocate for restricting pitchers to one time through the lineup. I recognize that the game is changing, but restricting to one time through the lineup is just too much. I would prefer at least 3 pitchers in the rotation that are capable and allowed to go 180-210 innings. I think this minimizing the times through the lineup thought process hurt the team in WS Game 2. Sometimes you let your eyes do the work and not computer algorithms. Everyone saw Darvish was not good in the 1st inning, and a change should have been made right then and there. Contrarily, Hill was pitching fine in Game 2, and should have been allowed to continue.

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I have opined all along that FAZ would not trade for or sign a player with a 9 figure salary attached. I brought up JD Martinez because the thought was that he may be looking at $100M rather than the $300M+ still owed on Stanton . If people were willing to accept the Stanton contract, why wouldn’t they be willing to take on Martinez for significantly less and no loss of prospects? However, I just read that Martinez is looking for $200M. IMO that is delusional. Good luck to him and to the team that signs him. Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) has him going to the Red Sox for $150M, and Jim Duquette (MLB) has him going to the Giants for just north of $100M.

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I am not convinced that any of Joc, Toles or Verdugo will give the Dodgers what they need…a big run producer for LF, but FAZ is not going to overpay. They will give every chance to Alex Verdugo to see what he can do, but he has never been that big bat in the #5 slot in the batting order. They need someone to protect Cody. For right now that has to be Puig.

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With respect to AGon, I would plan that he will not be able to make a season long commitment. His strengths are his ability to hit HRs and be a GG 1B. His back just will not allow for that over a 162 game season. And if he doesn’t get the Xtra Base Hit, he is going to clog the base paths. If he comes back and can contribute good for him and the team.

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I do not mind the trade proposal, but I do not think the O’s will go for it. DL Hall is just a baby and a 2017 #1 pick. The O’s are not going to give him up. I would like to see what it would take to get Austin Hayes (if possible) (RH OF). Alex Verdugo would probably have to be included as one of the players going to the O’s. But with the three that you identified might be able to get Brach and Hunter Harvey (RHSP) who is a huge risk. And yes he falls into that always injured category. But if he gets healthy he can be special.

To me Kersh, Hill and Wood have safe spots in the rotation next year. Maeda, Ryu, McCarthy and Beuhler would compete for the final 2 spots if they are all still around. Kazmir is a dark horse and would be a long shot. Maybe they go out and get another starter but they don’t need to. With all of the depth they can make a quantity for quality trade. They need a RH power bat for LF that can field the position and could stand to upgrade 2B. They platoon a lot but not because they want to, it’s because Joc, Kike, and Logan have bad splits and Puig had reverse splits. If they lose Morrow and Watson they need a legitimate set up guy or two also. I don’t trust Fields, Baez or Avilan in that role but Cingrani is filthy when on his game. Font intrigues me as a power arm that could dominate in short stints. The bullpen will be a work in progress this off season. Faz seems to evaluate it’s own talent in the pipeline pretty well, and has proven adept at finding hidden gems. This will be an interesting hot stove league going up to the winter meetings. Grandal seems to be the odd man out and could be packaged for a decent haul. The team never seems to go all the way to arbitration and has a good track record of fair agreements. That will be the first step and how they handle Grandal will be key.

Agree about the Heyward/Puig thing, just didn’t think of the acronyms. “Travesty” is perfect.

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I wouldn’t even begin to guess next years rotation given the possibility of trades, etc.

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I would love to have Stanton, but I also thought that FAZ is likely to stick to the long term plan, which is to build gradually through the farm system. And as much as I’d like to have Stanton, sticking with the long term plan might actually be the best news we could get. I’ll use as an example Yadier Alvarez. There are a number of people on this site who would trade him based on his disappointing numbers. But he’s also a very young lefthander with great stuff. I recently looked at his numbers, and it appears to me that just on numbers alone, his greatest problem appears to be control. Well, we all know that young lefthanders often have command problems early in their careers. I haven’t seen Alvarez, but just unloading him alone could prove to be a huge mistake if the light should suddenly go on sometime within the next couple of years. And he wouldn’t be the only one in a deal for a player of Stanton’s caliber.

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J.D. Martinez would be a nice fit, but not at $125 million. So unless his price tag is considerably lower (not likely), he’s not a nice fit for the Dodgers, even including the fact that he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, and therefore draft pick free.

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I haven’t kept up closely with Ohtani, but I think that given his age, his signing this offseason might invoke the restrictions the Dodgers are under as a result of their exceeding their limit during the 2015 July signing period. Those restrictions prohibit the Dodgers from signing a foreign free agent under a certain age for more than $300,000 until June 15, 2018. And I think under the new CBA the age limit was raised from 23 to 25. Depending on the particulars with respect to the signing of Ohtani, he might not even be an option for the Dodgers this year. Again, I’m not fully up-to-date on this stuff, so I could be completely wrong.

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And even if the Dodgers are willing to surrender some talent, it doesn’t have to be Stanton and the king’s ransom that he would command. It could also be a perfectly good player or players (including pitchers) than none of us are thinking about. FAZ is pretty imaginative, and I trust that they know what they would like, and what they’re willing to surrender for it in players and dollars.

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I agree about Kershaw having to re-invent himself. In fact, posted not too long ago that I thought the development of a change-up would dramatically change his effectiveness. The pitcher that most comes to mind in that respect was his fellow lefthander Cliff Lee. And there are others.

Love him or hate him, Puig deserved that Gold Glove over Heyward. Mark, this is why I dig this blog. You totally read my mind on the Stanton situation and how FAZ might feel about it. Spot on. Also, all of us on this site sees it, and you called it. Kershaw HAS to start changing his pitching pattern next season. The book on him is out, and he needs to start another chapter or he is going to start getting shelled. He still has great stuff, but he has become predictable. Gave up way too many home runs.

No matter how hard I try, Ryu just doesn’t make it for me. Then again, neither do McCarthy, Stripling, and Stewart.

I like your Brach trade idea, however.