Okay, I am done arguing with people on this or any other baseball site about corporate finance, which happens to be a subject I am very well-versed in. But that is different than knowledge of the Dodgers balance sheet of which I have none. So, let’s move on.
I am writing this in an El Dorado Hills Starbucks at about 1:30 PM. So this may not be current by the time I publish it. It is still very early in the Hot Stove League season, so the fact that the Dodgers have only acquired Kevin Quackenbush on a minor league deal and picked up Adam McCreery from the Braves waiver wire, I am not discouraged. Andrew Friedman is deliberate in his transactions and often times they are included in complex transactions that require multiple teams. There is a lot of speculation, but it isn’t coming from the Dodgers. A journalist (Gurnick, Rosenthal, Bowden, Heyman, Brown…pick your poison) will learn that the Dodgers and Marlins spoke and now the Dodgers are all in on Realmuto. A Yahoo sports journalist incorrectly wrote that Magic flew to Las Vegas just to see Bryce Harper. Didn’t happen, unless Magic is a liar. I am sure they will check in with Harper this week, especially LV being his home. They may even give him an offer. But as deliberate as Andrew may be, Scott Boras is more deliberate. Therefore, unless it is a $300MM+ offer with multiple opt outs, do not expect the bidding to end this week.
I do think there is real interest from the Dodgers for Corey Kluber. Maybe even Trevor Bauer (but less so). Is there a deal to be had? I think it depends as to what the Indians want to do. Do they want an ML OF or prospects? LAD is more likely to trade current ML players on their roster than to get rid of prized prospects. There does appear to be real interest from the Mets for Yasiel Puig. I am not so sure that the interest is reciprocal. Will they trade Puig? Yes, if they can get value in return. But they are not going to give him away. Why should they? Maybe he becomes the game changer they are looking for, and for $11MM.
So, what have the other contenders done? I consider the NL contenders to be Colorado, Milwaukee, Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, Phillies, and Nats. The Mets are trying, but they are not there yet. In the AL, Boston, NYY, Houston, Cleveland, and Oakland as a WC (maybe Tampa Bay as a WC contender). The AL has the extremes, while the NL is more tightly grouped.
First, the two teams that are seemingly on the tear down and rebuild strategy; Seattle and Arizona. The busiest has been the M’s who have already divested themselves of Mike Zunino (C), Guillermo Heredia (OF), James Paxton (LHSP), Robinson Cano (2B), Edwin Diaz (RHRP), Jean Segura (SS), James Pazos (RHRP), and Juan Nicasio (RHRP). They have also lost Nelson Cruz (DH) to FA. In return, the M’s received; Justus Sheffield (RHP), Erik Swanson (RHP), Dom Thompson-Williams (OF), Mallex Smith (OF), JP Crawford (SS), Carlos Santana (1B/DH), Jay Bruce (OF), Anthony Swarzak (RHRP), Jarred Kelenic (OF), Justin Dunn (RHSP), and Gerson Bautista (RHP).
The DBacks were already losing Patrick Corbin (LHSP), and AJ Pollock (CF), have now traded Paul Goldschmidt. They have also lost Chris Owings and probably Daniel Descalso and Clay Buchholtz (with other late season pick-ups). They did re-sign Eduardo Escobar which was a good sign. They picked up Kelby Tomlinson to hopefully replace Descalso (it doesn’t). Plus, they have received Luke Weaver to replace Corbin, Carson Kelly to be the first-string catcher, organizational depth infielder, and a supplemental draft pick. They already have an additional draft pick for Corbin and will probably get one for Pollock. They are rumored to be shopping Greinke, Ray, and Peralta. We shall see where that goes.
St. Louis – Has already dramatically improved their team with Paul Goldschmidt. The two ML players that went to AZ were not expected to be key players this year for the Cardinals. They still have a surplus of young pitching and do need another OF. They could sign Harper (or Brantley or Markakis) or they could use some of that surplus pitching to pick up another OF.
New York Mets – For a team that was rumored to be shopping Noah Syndergaard, they seem to have done an about face and decided to make a go of it in 2019. They moved Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and three prospects for 2B (1B) Robinson Cano, and RHRP deluxe Edwin Diaz. They do need a catcher, and an OF for sure. Even with Diaz, their bullpen can certainly be improved. And decisions need to be made about Jeff McNeil. Does he stay at 2B, move to 3B and let Cano play 2B, or become a super utility player? Their rotation could be solid depending as to which Vargas pitches this year. They have put all on notice that they are going to try to contend in 2019. It is a long shot, but with deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, and Matz, they can be dangerous especially if they stay close when Cespedes gets back.
Philadelphia Phillies – Picking up Jean Segura was a windfall. The only loss was JP Crawford and 1B Carlos Santana. Moving Santana and his salary was also especially beneficial to the Phils because now defensive deficient Rhys Hopkins can move back to 1B. They can use an OF, and Harper seems to be their target. If they want him, I do not see them being outbid. What Scott Boras is hoping for is that the Dodgers and NYY will provide that competitive bidding. Matt Klentek is not stupid and will not be bidding against himself. They can use another top of the rotation pitcher. Dallas Keuchel? Charlie Morton? Reunite with JA Happ? Even with the addition of James Pazos and Juan Nicasio, the bullpen can use an upgrade. Will they spend on Kimbrel? Miller? Robertson?
Atlanta – Atlanta’s signing of Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann came early. They are still looking for a RF and could revisit Nick Markakis. Maybe Michael Brantley. They are also looking for an Ace to lead their young but very talented staff. The Madison Bumgarner speculation just does not seem to go away, and it actually does make sense for both teams IF the Giants can get a decent return of young pitching, which they desperately need.
New York Yankees – Got one of the LHSP that they needed in James Paxton. They could use one more. They are not actively seeking Harper or Machado, but I would never rule out NYY. Harper and his LH bat would be an ideal pick up for NYY, but unless they can rid themselves of another OF, Harper would be a luxury (expensive luxury). They still need to move Sonny Gray. If they can trade Jacoby Ellsbury bad contracts for another bad contract maybe they are in. RHH Stanton and his contract is another option to possibly be moved. But he has a no trade clause that will limit the number of possibilities. JA Happ, Dallas Keuchel are potential FA signings. They still have a formidable bullpen even with the loss of Robertson. However, NYY believes in a strong bullpen, so maybe they will also spend here.
Minnesota Twins – Signed a couple of one-year FA infielders in Jonathan Schoop (2B) and Ronald Torreyes (2B, 3B, SS). Doesn’t close the gap between them and Cleveland. But Schoop could resurrect his career in Minnesota and if nothing else provide a decent mid-season trade possibility. That probably ends any thought of Minnesota re-signing Brian Dozier. They also picked up 1B/DH CJ Cron.
Boston – Re-sign Nathan Eovaldi. Does he start or relieve? The Red Sox are already at $240MM in CBT so they do not have any financial room to pick up replacements for Kimbrel or Kelly. The bullpen could be their downfall this year. Also Mookie Betts and JDM are going to need to repeat 2018. With the addition of Paxton, NYY improved and Boston has a full year of Eovaldi but also the loss of Kimbrel and Kelly. NYY has room to spend while Boston does not. Look for NYY to become a big challenger for Boston for the best ML team in 2019.
Washington Nationals – They have been active. They signed Patrick Corbin to replace Gio. Check. They picked up catcher Yan Gomez and Kurt Suzuki. Check. They signed pitcher Trevor Rosenthal for the pen. Full year of Kyle Barraclough. Already with Sean Doolittle, Bullpen – Check. They still need a 2B but have said they are willing to live with Howie Kendrick at the position. There are a lot of 2B’s available, so I would expect the Nats to pick one of them. DJLM? Brian Dozier? Ted Lerner has already said that they are ready to move on from Bryce Harper. They wish him well, but they like the thought of Soto, Robles, Eaton and Taylor (#4). A #5 should be easy and inexpensive to pick up. Harper could change his mind and ask to see if the $300MM 10 year no opt out deal is still on the table. Lerner and Boras are tight, so that could happen. A left handed 1B for backup to Zimmerman. Lucas Duda? They could also use a true #5 SP. They may be willing to go into 2019 with Erick Fedde as their #5, but I think they are in a position to try to find a more polished #5. Especially if they do decide to move away from Harper.
There has been a lot of movement and some big names signed before the Winter Meetings. This could be a big week for many FA and many teams. What will the Dodgers do? I have no bloody clue.
Discussion (47)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Rumors of a three-way being discussed between the Marlins, Yankees, and Mets. Thor going to Yanks, Realmuto to the Mets.
Friedman notes:
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Alex Wood threw exclusively out of the stretch last season. His ERA jumped nearly a run, WHIP from 1.06 to 1.21, K rate dropped. Friedman said he got “out of whack mechanically” and expects Wood to return to using the windup in 2019.
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Kenley Jansen’s heart surgery went “as well as we could have hoped,” Friedman said. Expects him to have no limitations when spring training opens. “Saw him the other day. He looked great, is in a great frame of mind.”
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Corey Seager (Tommy John and hip surgeries) is working out in LA, making “the switch from rehabbing to training.” Has started running and throwing program, is swinging a bat.
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Andrew Friedman about likely big-league arrivals for Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz. Said he expects Smith to “help us win games at some point in 2019.” For Ruiz, 2020 is a good bet but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen sooner.
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Andrew Friedman was asked if the Dodgers would start spring training with the current surplus of OF & starting pitchers.
“We would, but I just think they’re talented enough where things will lineup and make sense, where it works out well for our team and an acquiring team I’d be surprised if that were the case. If the return didn’t work for us, we wouldn’t [make a trade]. But I can’t see that happening.”
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On if there’s pressure to make a splash this offseason: “I think the pressure we feel is to make a splash in October, much more so than in December.”
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From HEYMAN:
As of this moment the teams with the best chance to land Realmuto are these 7 — dodgers, mets, padres, astros, phillies, yankees and braves. A couple notably deny being too involved but they are all apparently involved enough to be in the top 7.
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From MOROSI:
The Dodgers are interested in Tigers OF Nick Castellanos via trade, but there’s no present momentum toward a deal. Dodgers active on numerous fronts and Castellanos is not their highest priority.
So far Dodgers are in on Harper, Robertson and Kluber. That’s a great start right there. No catcher rumors yet?
Verdugo is going to be traded. There’s simply too much smoke. Maybe for Kluber, maybe for Realmuto, maybe for ???
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Sounds like we might have multiple offers out there and are waiting for an answer
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I would be mildly surprised if he’s still ours by the end of Thursday
Just read some articles/comments on http://www.letsgotribe.com and they would probably be laughing at my proposals above. For one, they insist that Cleveland is not rebuilding but simply retooling from a position of strength [have you seen the rest of the AL Central?] and any deal would have to help them this season and be payroll positive for them.
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So, dumping Kemp and Wood seems fairly unlikely [unless they package Kipnis with Kluber], and Puig we don’t know exactly how he’s valued. (I will add, editorially, that Francona has to be among the best managers in the game and if anyone–besides Roberts–could get maximum effort from the Wild Horse it would be T.F.)
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Clearly, Verdugo is the main target here, but he is somewhat dismissed as being a “spare piece” for us, mere depth and not a core part. To really strike at our heart, they would demand Bellinger and we would decline, this ending the negotiation.
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But, what if we were to gradually sweeten the deal with some of our actual depth? Guys like Stripling, Taylor, Keekay, Ferguson, D. Santana? Now we could be getting closer to a deal that actually makes sense for a title contender trying to cash in a huge trade piece for four smaller units. Verdugo, Stripling, Taylor, Ferguson? That hurt a little bit to type. Verdugo, D. Santana, Alvarez, & Wong? Have to think we might be getting the Indians attention with some of these packages.
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Whether I would do it is another matter altogether.
RHP Tyson Ross signs with Detroit – 1 year, $5.75MM. Ross will turn 32 in April. He started for San Diego last year with little success. St. Louis picked him up off waivers and he went into the bullpen and did much better as a reliever.
No action so far today but there is one rumor(among many others} that will not happen and that David Robertson coming to LA. 1. He’ll be 34 in April. 2. He made $13MM this year and 3. He’s an east coast guy and prefers to stay on the East coast and he doesn’t have an agent HE decides where he will or won’t go.
If people are wondering why we would be looking to upgrade our rotation when it is already a strength and we have other areas that need improvement, I think one answer can be found in last season. In addition to providing a buffer in case of injuries, a strong rotation (for example, Kershaw, Kluber, Buehler, Ryu, & Hill) could help us “coast” through the regular season and better prepare ourselves for the playoffs. Last year we had to expend so much energy just reaching the dance, we nearly sputtered out due to some inconsistencies and lack of urgency. Before Turner hit that HR in Game 2 against Milwaukee, we were looking like a dead team walking.
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Kluber is such a good and respected pitcher that he makes any rotation better by just walking in the room. He could take some pressure off of Kershaw and Buehler. He’d also ease a bit of the concern about losing Wood/Hill/Ryu after this season.
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I am concerned about the amount of talent we would have to give back. I’m resigned to losing Verdugo, I’m fine with dropping Wood/Stripling, I’d be very curious to see what the third piece would be. If it’s a top prospect like Ruiz, May, Luz I’d likely be very upset.
I would trade Alex Verdugo for Corey Kluber in a heartbeat. The question is, What else would we need to include? Have to think some salary would be going going back to CLE in the form of Wood/Puig. And if we trade too much outfield depth, that means an outfielder would likely be added through free agency. I wonder if Kluber’s availability is just too attractive for Friedman to pass up, and he has the line of communication and the pieces to make a deal work. Here’s my crazy trade proposal: Kluber for Wood, Verdugo, & Barnes.
Had a meal over the weekend with a Yank. That’s all I say. He says, they are trying hard on Kubler. I said no fair, Dodgers are too. We’ll see what becomes of that.
The talk of Haprer only being 26 sounds good but if a 10 contract is offered it can be looked at as two contracts, the first for ages 26 -31, and the second as 32 – 37. The first sounds much better than the second. Wouldn’t it be nice if only the first 5 years were guaranteed and the second included incentives that had to me met to equal the first.
Saw this tweet exchange
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Bob Nightengale-
Manny Machado is doing the opposite of Bryce Harper and plans to visit teams in their city on his free agent tour
Eric Stephen-
Trying to improve his road numbers (.272/.325/.468, 13 HR away in 2018, compared to .329/.415/.622, 24 HR at home)
Some other Veterans Committee doozie picks (now Today’s Game Era) :
Bill Mazeroski-WTF? That means Omar Vizquel should be in easily. Insert other good not great IF’s with long careers.
Ron Santo-WTF?! That means Edgar Martinez, Steve Garvey and others should be in.
Jack Morris-Really? Let’s enshrine Mussina, Tommy John, and others too.
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Of course this is all subjective but for me Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmeiro and Rose belong in the Hall and while they are all alive too. The 3 guys above and Baines just don’t so I would have to say no to Hodges too.
There were a couple of trade scenarios that I saw traversing the blogosphere (very dangerous). One was Francisco Cervelli for Marshall Kasowski. Probably as likely as any of the others that we have bandied about on this site; meaning — not very. I am mildly interested in Cervelli who is probably akin to Yasmani Grandal without the HRs but also without the Ks. He threw out 39% would be base stealers last year, but is 27% for his career. At 2.6 WAR he certainly earned his $10.5MM salary. His 2019 salary is $11.5MM with a $10.33MM AAV price tag. Kind of pricey for a one and done catcher with concussion concerns. While I do like Marshall Kasowski, that is not too much for a front line catcher. Cervelli helps LAD in 2019, but how much more than less costly Nick Hundley or Martin Maldonado or Jonathan Lucroy? This would be…okay, but what else? Robinson Chirinos signed a 1 year $5.75MM for comparisons.
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The other one that I am seeing more of is Scooter Gennett being traded this winter. What Cincinnati would get in return depends totally on what they are looking for. Do they want pitching for 2019 while their kids develop? Or do they want prospects? Does it make sense to trade a 2B with one year remaining for a pitcher with one year remaining? Only if it means that Senzel gets the 2B position. MLBTR projected Dodgers (Wood), Yankees (Sonny Gray), Pittsburgh (Ivan Nova), Nationals (Tanner Roark) as possibilities. Of those, really only Wood and Gray are genuine possibilities. The Nationals really do not have nearly enough pitching to trade Roark. I am not sure why Pittsburgh except they do need a 2B for the year, and they do have decent young pitching they could provide experience. But if they were interested in Gennett why is he a better choice than Harrison? They could have kept Harrison and moved Nova for prospects. Do not see the reasoning on that one.
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It looks like Billy Hamilton to KC. Good move for KC with a defensive CF in that canyon. Maybe he will make contact with the Royals. The Royals will run him if he gets on. Good gamble for them with a plus plus on defense.
Many of us have complained that Gil Hodges should be in the HOF, but he’s not. Look at his stats:
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Gil Hodges
370 HR
1274 RBI
.846 OPS
.273 BA
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Harold Baines
389 HR
1628 RBI
.820 OPS
.289 BA
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Hodges didn’t make it and overall Baines is a little better, so if I think Hodges should be in (and I do), I have to include Baines.
I do not think the Mets will trade Syndergarrd, but even if they do, the price will be too high and the risk will be even higher!
AC – Whats your feeling on the HOF picks?? Good players, but HOF… It’s almost like they have to pick someone, so they all can get together…
I ran into Lee Smith in Palm Springs, when the Angels had ST there and he was the largest ballplayer I had ever seen up close. Maybe Klu was bigger!?
I got lost in the finances yesterday and don’t know if it was asked if again will ST be in a holding pattern till Scott’s Kids get signed???
Damn, and he’s Cory Seagers agent… Has Puig got a GM yet??
Thanks AC. Great lead to the Winter Meeting.
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Do the Dodgers go with pitching and defense, offense, or a combination?
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A Kluber or Syndergaard addition might say P&D. Harper might say O.
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“There does appear to be real interest from the Mets for Yasiel Puig” –that is where I have most often tried to trade Puig. Hill to Yanks, a Yank to the Mets, and Puig and X to Mets, Syndergarrd to Dodgers.