I know that many are afraid of a Betts/Price trade because of the financial concerns for David Price, and I can understand that. So I went back and looked at the Nick Punto trade (I know Mark’s favorite subject); a previous time when the Dodgers assumed a huge financial obligation for a perceived benefit. I pulled the below article:
One of the lines that caught my eye was when the writer was talking about Ben Cherington, he penned the following:
“For all of his predecessor Theo Epstein’s successes, he was always much better at trades than big free agent signings.”
That sounds very much like our very own AF. Theo continues to make some bad FA signings. While his signing of Jon Lester was spot on, Theo had an advantage because Lester was a long time member of his Red Sox teams. Ben Zobrist was also a good FA signing. But Heyward, Morrow, Kimbrel, Darvish, Chatwood???
In 2012, the Dodgers wanted Adrian Gonzalez and were willing to take on his mammoth contract as well as the gargantuan contracts for Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett to get AGon. Financially (contract wise), it was not a stellar transaction. But regardless of what the article purports, one of the clear reasons the Dodgers wanted Adrian Gonzalez was because of the burgeoning Latino population the owners wanted to tap into with a huuuuuge Hispanic star. AGon helped bring them back. In 2011, the attendance was below 3MM for the first time since 2000. In 2013, Gonzalez (and Hanley Ramirez) first full year with LAD, the Dodgers attendance topped 3.74MM. I would say from a business standpoint, the Dodgers became relevant again. The fans have not left, with the 2019 attendance a slight tick below 4MM (3.974MM).
Fast forward to 2020. The Dodgers have a chance to get Mookie Betts, but one of the provisions is reportedly that they need to also acquire David Price, and his three years of a bloated contract. The ownership is again facing a dilemma where their choice is to perhaps stay status quo (a strategy that has not yet worked), or go bold and pick up one year of Betts and bring along Price as part of the acquisition. This time the financial obligation is a lot less (almost half). The Dodgers ownership were not shy of walking away from still large remaining contract amounts by DFA Carl Crawford with 1.5 years remaining, and in essence paying for most of Agon’s final year salary with the cash considerations going to Atlanta where he was released per his request for agreeing to the trade.
AF knows Price, and I believe he would thrive in an environment he felt more comfortable, and maybe LA (with AF) is that place. We know he does not like Boston.
The prospect return to Boston for Betts/Price will be reduced depending on the total cash difference. Include AJ Pollock and that should be enough of a cash differential, and the prospects will still not need to be elite, but could be either Strip/Maeda and one 7-10 prospect, a top 20, and a lottery ticket. Dodgers get one year of Mookie to patrol RF and to wear a Dodger uni in the 2020 All Star Game at Dodger Stadium (along side AS Cody Bellinger). Maybe Mookie will take to the Hollywood lifestyle and he will re-sign. Price can at least work as a #5 and then move to the bullpen where he was very effective in 2018 WS.
Trading for Betts/Price will cost $$$ (which the Dodgers can afford), but not elite prospects, which the Dodgers do not want to spend. Many of the same people who are criticizing the ownership for not signing $250MM to $350MM FA, are complaining that Price’s 3 years at $31MM is too onerous. Never mind that the $31MM becomes $19MM with the loss of AJ Pollock.
Now do I expect AF to do this. NOOOOOO! I fully expect AF to wait until the trade deadline and then try to get a top line starter and/or RH bat with a comparable cost to the Machado and Darvish trades. Who that top of the rotation starter or RH bat will be and what team would be willing to trade with AF and his down graded prospects is anyone’s guess.
Rudybyrd linked a very good LA Times interview by Bill Plaschke with Stan Kasten. I am not a big Plaschke fan, mostly because of his hate of USC, but I thought he did a good job with some good questions and good follow up questions. After reading the column…Stan Kasten doth protest too much, methinks.
Of course Scott Boras used LAD to drive up the price for Gerrit Cole. Why is that any kind of surprise, and AF did make a great offer. I totally discount the Bryce Harper offer, as that was never realistic. IMO, that was all show. I only hope that AF reads Boras better when it comes to Seager, Belli, and Urias.
When asked about the reported MLB payroll mandate for the Dodgers, I do believe he was closer to becoming more forthright when it came to the “mandate” to get the payroll below the CBT in 2018. His response…“Two years ago, it was important, even though it was never a mandate. Last year was less important. This year, there’s no real need for that.” I think MLB chose not to use the word mandate, but the meaning was very apparent, and their actions gave credence to the “mandate”.
I will believe his assertion that he thinks that AF will be beyond the CBT threshold by the time the post-season starts, when it actually happens. I like Blake Treinen, but he is an unknown. If dollars weren’t as critical as Kasten leads us to believe, and realizing that one of the biggest weaknesses the Dodgers have (and perhaps THE biggest weakness), why didn’t they go 3 years $42MM or $45MM for Will Smith? I know Mark does not trust the consistency of relievers, but Will Smith is far more projectable than Blake Treinen. And do not bring up the dollars disparity, because Kasten told us that contract amounts are not a deterrent to signing talent. I think the ownership group would be happier being a current $37MM below the CBT than $10MM above it. I think they will approach the threshold, but not exceed it. I would not be surprised at all if they ended up somewhere between $190MM and $200MM. Acquiring Mookie Betts will mitigate all of those beliefs. Clevinger will take prospects not $$$. Same with Rodriguez. And AF is not going to bend here when it comes to Lux and May. Others are more available, but Cleveland and Boston may not be interested. Cleveland has made it clear they want Lux in any deal, so until they come off that demand, there is no chance for a Clevinger.
At least have a backup plan. Sign a low level back of the rotation starter for a one year pillow contract. Think Taijuan Walker or Alex Wood. I would not expect much out of either of them, but they both could eat up some innings for Urias/May/Strip/Gonsolin (or whoever becomes the primary #4/#5) and they may be useful relievers in the post-season. Or they may be busts for the one year.
I think fans will tolerate the Treinen or Wood or Walker type deals (even Kazmir, McCarthy, & Anderson), if AF (Kasten) also went out of his comfort zone to trade for a Mookie Betts, or another elite difference maker. Mookie is not going to take a Gavin Lux or Dustin May, regardless of what Red Sox fans think. If they do, walk away just as he is doing with Cleveland.
I do agree with Kasten that talent alone will guarantee a championship, especially expensive talent. The Dodgers were the most talented team in 2017 and should have won even with the cheating by the Astros, if their stars came through. Blame Doc, blame the players, but the players were there in 2017 and 2019 to win it all. They just did not perform. Maybe 2020 will be the year with Mookie making the final WS catch to win it all. And maybe Mookie will embrace the Hollywood lifestyle and want to end his career with LAD.
I would be willing to trade Pollock, Maeda or Chicken Strip (RedSox choice), Busch, and Rios for Betts and Price.
Would Betts or Bellinger play CF?
If that happens and Verdugo is healthy, Joc would be traded.
I think a fair trade with Boston would be Price, Betts, and both contracts for A J Pollock and Maeda. If Boston agrees,good, if not say thank you and walk away.
Playing devil’s advocate, if I am Boston I do not want Pollock who is limited defensively to LF, and is injury prone. I will accept Kenta Maeda, but I want someone who can play all three OF spots, and preferably some infield – either Kiké Hernandez, or Chris Taylor. I know I am not getting Lux, or May, and not likely Keibert Ruiz in the trade, so I want several ready now prospects: I need a LH hitting first baseman, preferably someone who can also play some OF, so Edwin Rios, or Matt Beaty is acceptable. I also need a close to ready prospect for second base and can play SS to rest Bogaerts on occasion; Omar Estevez. And, I want a young catcher not named Ruiz, or Cartaya – so will take Connor Wong. Maeda, Hernandez, Rios, Estevez, and Wong — and you get Price and Betts.
I’d do that!
I would do that. Not one of those players is necessary to the success of the 2020 team or future teams. Kike’ is a better Brock Holt. Boston would love him. Maeda & Kike’ potentially have payrolls that would surpass Pollock’s. Rios has a potential thunderous bat, but the NL does not have a DH and he is not needed at !B for the Dodgers. For Boston, he can play 1B until JDM leaves and then he can assume the DH slot. Estevez and Wong could be serviceable ML players or AAAA players. Time will tell. Boston gets payroll relief and under the CBT threshold.
LF – Verdugo or Joc/CT3/Pollock
CF – Belli
RF – Mookie
That would be a pretty tough to beat defensive OF, not to mention offense.
SoCalBum, Nice trade and I agree with you but if the Dodgers are going to reduce Boston´s payroll by 62 million for this year and 64 million over the next 2 years and also give up Hernandez, Rios, Estevez, and Wong, then Pollock is part of the trade. Getting rid of Price ( who also has health issues ) and his contract is huge for them, so they take Pollock.Nice talking with you.
I think the Dodgers would do that deal without Pollock being included. It would be a fair deal and that is all Friedman can expect in order to get Betts for one year and have 10 months to negotiate an extension. Dodgers could trade Pollock for another similar contract, like Andrew Miller of the Cardinals whose AAV is very close to Pollock’s. I miss our old routine of exchanging early morning thoughts about Dodgers. Hope all is well with you.
” Connor Wong. Maeda, Hernandez, Rios, Estevez, and Wong”
I think that is a very AD move. I like Wong a lot. But he will be blocked for the foreseeable future. As will Estevez and Rios. Hernandez becomes redundant with the addition of Betts as a RH bat and Lux being in the mix in the infield. Maeda would be an improvement for Boston at #4 or #5. I have to think we’d probably have to toss in something else. A lottery ticket possibly.
There is a lot of value there. And the Dodgers would be eating a ton of salary. But none of those pieces impact the near term or intermediate term plans. Question is would Boston take that? Their fans would go nuts as there is no “big name” or top 5 prospect in the mix. I can see the gnashing of teeth now. It would be a difficult trade to explain to the lesser knowledgeable Boston fans.
MLB.Radio was saying this if the Dodgers wanted Clevinger AND Lindor, it will take Lux, May, and Ruiz and Steve Phillips said he would do that deal if he were the Dodgers, but said that Cleveland would not do it. It’s tempting…
They could still trade Pederson and get another reliever… like to St. Louis for Martinez!
No wonder he hasn’t been a GM for the past 15 years.
😉
Rudy, you beat me to it.
I am not sure I would trade Joc until I know for sure how Verdugo’s back is. But St. Louis does need a LH hitting corner OF, and continue to focus on two RH hitting OF; Ozuna and Castellanos. It will take more than Joc. After Jordan Hicks went down with TJ surgery, Martinez became the Cards closer. He had 24 saves and 3 blown saves and 3 holds. He inherited 21 runners and 5 scored. More importantly, in the year of the juiced ball, he allowed 2 HRs. St. Louis believes they are a legit contender. Joc for Carlos Martinez should be enough to start the conversation.
Yet another reason to subscribe to The Athletic:
Keith Law: Covering all things baseball, from the low minors to MLB leadership
By Keith Law 2h ago 151
In order to attain the impossible, one must attempt the absurd.
I have indeed joined The Athletic as a senior baseball writer, leaving the only full-time writing job I’ve ever known — a job I held three times longer than any other job I’ve held — to come to this plucky startup that, among other things, has hired too many friends of mine for me to count. I am excited to be here, and to get to work with so many great people, many of whom will be first-time colleagues.
I’m here to cover all aspects of the sport, but I will still focus on evaluating players. That will include the kind of in-person scouting I’ve been doing for the last 13 years, while also integrating the new data teams are getting from Statcast and similar systems, to the extent that those of us on the outside get to see it. I will bring my annual prospect rankings here — they’ll run in mid- to late February — and will also cover the MLB draft for The Athletic, beginning right after the minor-league prospect rankings run, with draft rankings and scouting reports all spring and mock drafts starting about a month before the draft begins on June 10. I’ll break down trades and major signings when they happen, so if Francisco Lindor or Mookie Betts changes addresses any time soon, I’ll give you my thoughts on all the players involved and what it means for each team — and any other teams affected as well.
One of the many other reasons I came to The Athletic was the chance to write about labor issues in baseball, which will only become a more important topic as we head toward the next CBA negotiations, and as Major League Baseball’s proposal to realign and consolidate the minor leagues continues to attract unhelpful attention from various presidential candidates. Minor-league players are underpaid and often asked to work in suboptimal conditions, but they lack the protections of a union to give them a voice in any negotiations — and neither MLB nor the minor-league owners speak on behalf of those players. I hope to cover all of those negotiations, and the increasingly public nature of the battle, in a way that considers all of the stakeholders, whether or not they have an actual seat at the bargaining table.
Spending so much time at one job, doing essentially the same thing year in and year out, also left me wondering if that was all that I could do as a writer. When I wrote my first book, “Smart Baseball,” in 2016, I showed myself that I was capable of doing something I didn’t think I could do, and since then I’ve written another book, “The Inside Game,” due out in April, that ties baseball into another subject on which I’d never written before (cognitive psychology). I’d like to bring the skills I’ve learned from those longform projects to The Athletic to tell new stories and bring in knowledge from different disciplines while doing so. If you want to write something new, or to experiment with new ways of telling stories, The Athletic is the right place to be.
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Wow. Adding Keith Law is a big deal! Who are these guys?
Rudy, thanks for the heads up!! I am a fan of Kieth Law. He is a good evaluator of talent; minor league prospects and amateurs. I read his reviews and Top Prospect lists as soon as they are published. But I am really looking forward to his discussions on labor issues, especially as they relate to MiLB. He has his priorities straight…The unprotected minor league player. They need a voice. The Athletic is getting a great group of writers.
And looks like with this deal, it’s $3 a month. That’s not bad.
Bobby, a lot of excellent coverage of the Lakers and Kings as well.
Keith Law is one of a kind. I really enjoy him but I’m sure others absolutely hate him. He never had an opinion (on ANY subject) that he wasn’t willing to offer and if we think (and Mark agrees) that MT doesn’t suffer fools kindly, wait until you read Law’s views on world-oriented subjects.
I could be very wrong, but I think MT’s and KL’s political opinions are diametrically opposed. I’d love to see a blogger’s duel between the two. Mark, it would make your exchanges with JM seem like child’s play.
I cannot comment because I do not allow politics or religion on this blog.
It’s enough trouble allowing baseball! 😉
The two problems are, managing to sign Betts long-term, and then Price. I have never been a Price fan, though obviously he had the one Cy Young year, and then was great in the World Series against us. Last year, he once again was erratic. You watch him pitch, he looks like he has it all, but he is inconsistent. I don’t think he’s worth paying all that money to for three years. Of course, the Dodgers are preternaturally afraid of paying out for any long-term deal, but I think that they need to add a pitcher, and not Alex Wood, who people seem to forget was not effective at all in his last season here, and was no loss when traded.
Betts is really good, a game-changer. But why would we pick up Price for three years just to have Betts for one? I suppose that Betts, like almost all players, wants to test the free agent market. Maybe the Yankees will sign him for $400 million, and then we can gloat that they overpaid. If we could possibly sign Betts long-term, I would absolutely give up major prospects. If it is unlikely, and we’d only have him for the year, I would not do it.
As to the top relievers whom we kept passing on, it is either cheapness or arrogance. Kasten insists that we are not hamstrung by payroll concerns, but it certainly has looked like it. All sorts of other teams have paid for free agents, but we have not. It is like we are competing on different terrain, maybe baseball is too expensive for the Dodgers owners, though they scoff at that. Maybe some of it is Friedman being afraid to take a risk, he does not take many. We signed Treinen for one year, no risk there. We will rent players at the trade deadline. We are depending on young talent and untested prospects to fill the roles that FAs or veterans with long-term contracts fill on other teams.
In sum, I wanted the Dodgers to outbid the Yankees for Cole. I wanted us to get Clevenger if we could not land Cole. I wanted us to substantially upgrade what was an insipid bullpen last year, one which does not have a current quality closer. I want us to have a stronger pitching staff than Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Maeda. But we have done none of those things. Now we may finally make a splash move which may not be idea. On the other hand, it does me and other Dodgers fans no good at all to see the owners save $40 million on payroll, so I guess they might as well use it at some point. I don’t think that this proposed trade will make us better than the Yankees, though it will make it more likely that we will win the NL pennant. And if Betts leaves then, we have wasted a lot of money on Price, and that will make the ownership less likely to do anything to substantially upgrade the roster in the next offseason, though apparently there is not going to be much in the FA market to help us. So our current options are limited, probably to this deal, or stick with the young players indefinitely.
We all wanted Cole, but the only way he was coming to LA was if the Yankees did not want him.
End of story!
Move on, there’s nothing else to talk about in regard to Cole.
Currently, the Yankees are +275 to win the championship, making them the substantial favorite. The Dodgers are +635. Odds are not determinative, but they suggest here that the Dodgers have much less of a chance to win the title than NYY. So if they had no chance to get Cole ,they needed to do something else to close the gap that now exists.
You keep saying that the Yankees outbid LAD for Cole. And that is actually not true when comparing AAV. The Dodgers offered $300MM for 8 years ($37.5MM AAV), while NYY signed Cole for $324MM for 9 years ($36MM AAV). I have asked and will ask again (straw man or not), if you were AF would you have offered Cole $400MM for 9 years? Do you doubt all who have said that once NYY hit $324MM all other negotiation stopped. Cole got what he wanted, to be a NYY for the highest AAV of any player, EVER. And AF offered him more (AAV). AF and the owners get blasted because they cannot convince Gerrit Cole that he really wants to be a Dodger and not a NYY. Or are you saying that Boras, Cole, and the Dodgers are all not telling the truth?
Do you believe every major league player is a mercenary and will go wherever the largest dollars are offered? Not everyone is Zack Greinke who advertised that is exactly what he was going to do.
MadBum had better offers, and yet he chose to go to Arizona for his horse ranch. He reportedly had multiple better offers.
Zach Wheeler’s wife said he was going to stay on the east coast. He was already getting paid significantly more than what most projected. Do you doubt the power of a wife’s wishes to stay near family?
Will Smith made it clear early on he wanted to go to Atlanta. If Atlanta did not make him an offer he was going to accept the QO from SF. He grew up 38 miles from Atlanta.
Anthony Rendon made it clear to LAD officials that he did not want to play for the Dodgers. Should they have just offered him $300MM to test that theory? Over 7 years, that is a $42.86MM AAV. Would you really want a player on your roster that does not want to be there except for mercenary money?
As much as you may think they should, not every player wants to be a Dodger.
Drew Pomeranz – 4 years $34MM – You would have beat that?
Will Harris – 3 years $25MM after his botched Games 6 and 7 in the WS – You would have beat that?
Chris Martin – 2 years $14MM – Is he really any better than Pedro Baez at $3.3MM for 1 year?
Dellin Bettances – Guaranteed $10.5MM; 1 year $7.5MM with an option for $6MM or $3MM buyout in 2021.
Craig Stamman?
Still unsigned are Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek, and Pedro Strop. Hudson wants a multi-year deal. There was nobody complaining that the Dodgers let him leave as a FA after 2018. And while he did well in the NLDS and NLCS, he was not good at all in the WS. Before knowing what he signs for, what would you offer him? Or Cishek? Or Strop?
Other than Cole or Strasburg, what FA starting pitchers should the Dodgers have signed? Do any of them actually make the team better? Do you think they missed out on any of them?
Would you have gone above the Toronto offer of 4 years and $80MM for Ryu?
Are you willing to trade Lux for Clevinger? The Indians are asking for Jo Adell and more from the Angels, and the Angels hung up. Cleveland does not want to trade Clevinger. They will if the other team is stupid and overpays. Cleveland believes they will contend, and Clevinger is their Ace, WHY would they trade him? Because the Dodgers want him? Maybe you do not consider Lux a legit prospect, and are willing to trade him. That is an opinion, and goes along with the theory that a prospect is a prospect until he isn’t. Cleveland has said it will take more, but Lux would be the headliner.
I am perplexed about those that have no problem whatsoever spending $350MM+ for Cole or $300MM plus for Rendon (not that they could have), but will not spend $93 on Price to get Mookie Betts; even for one year to help push the Dodgers across the finish line. Besides it is not going to cost $93MM. Boston will have to pay more or take on Pollock, which will make Price a net $19MM. If they do not, move on. But they should exhaust every possible avenue to better the team. Betts makes the team better. Price is a #5 pitcher. So what. He will go to the bullpen when playoffs come. It is not going to cost Lux, May, Gonsolin, or Gray. After all it is just money as has been said on this and other sites all winter. Mookie is not going to NYY next year. They are already hinting that they will not be able to re-sign Aaron Judge. But if they are going to spend that kind of money, I would bet they will spend it on Judge when the time comes. NYY is already at $258MM for 2020 and has $135MM already committed for 7 players in 2021.
While I am an Alex Wood fan, I do not see him as a Dodger. Been there done that. But he was an All Star pitcher, and he was the best pitcher in the 2017 WS. He does get injured, thus a one year pillow contract with vesting incentives. The same with Taijuan Walker. No they are not Cole replacements, but they are depth the team lost after Ryu and Hill. It is a Plan B safety net in case the kids need to monitor their innings, which AF manages well. It is hard to build a team on just superstars. Even NYY has questionable players.
Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon were never coming to the Dodgers. They switched gears and started to negotiate for Lindor, but Cleveland insists on Lux and AF has said no. Others are projecting that it will take Lux, May and Ruiz to get 2 years of Lindor and 3 of Clevinger. Would you do that?
Boston has no real reason to trade Mookie unless Price goes with him. Mookie alone is going to cost elite prospects. Trading JBJ (which they want to do) gets them closer to CBT threshold. It gets them within $8MM, and more manageable without losing Betts. Just like Cleveland is not going to trade Clevinger without a significant overpay, neither will Boston trade Eduardo Rodriguez.
I am not sure that there is anything that the Dodgers can do that will make you believe they are better than the Yankees. I am not sure there is anything that they can do to assuage how you feel. I believe in the kids, and if they get Betts, I believe that puts them on par with NYY offensively. Admittedly I am naive and see things thru rose colored glasses, but I believe this Dodger team can win. I think I will play the games instead of just handing NYY the Trophy.
AC, I always respect your considered opinions. I will just note that if one thinks that the Dodgers are as good as the Yankees, the $100 to win $635 on them winning the title is a great bet. I realize that many do not think in terms of betting. But it is interesting to compare the odds of +275 to +635. I look at the Yankees team which had a number of injuries last year, and still won 102 games, and now added one of the top three pitchers in baseball, plus may not be done yet. I don’t think the Dodgers were as good as the Yankees or Astros last year, despite piling up 106 wins in an awful division; and I certainly think that the gap has widened, though of course we will see how it plays out.
None of us really knows exactly how the Cole bidding went. The consensus here is that Cole always wanted the Yankees, the bidding was a sham concocted by Boras, with the Dodgers’ unintentional help, to get Cole the record contract he wanted. In other words, the Dodgers were duped, wasted their time, Cole was never coming here. This does not speak well for the acumen of the owners or Friedman, unless one subscribes to a conspiracy theory that the Dodgers never intended to get Cole, they were just bidding to look good for the fans, rather than never bid. If so, they accomplished that, but that would make them look even worse. But of course none of it can be proved. I would subscribe to the theory that if the Dodgers had let Boras know that they were intending to top any offer the Yankees made at any step, it might have gone differently. Again, if one thinks that it would not have, then the Dodgers look pretty dumb, wasting their time on a wild goose chase, while passing on everyone else. Or they look as if they are subservient to the Yankees in the baseball pecking order; Rosenthal saying that the Yankees bullied the Dodgers in the negotiating.
Putting this aside, I realize that not everyone wants to play for the Dodgers. Perhaps not many do, based on the number of FAs who sign with other teams. Verlander almost certainly did (not a FA, of course), but we disdained. How many titles did that cost us? The default position of the Dodgers owners is not to take on the longer term deal. We also could have had Lester at the deadline a few years ago, cost us another title, perhaps. We didn’t pick up one reliever last year except the one-out man Kolarek, while Washington and Atlanta among others, did everything they could to fortify the bullpen. Houston added Greinke to the staff. Washington added Corbin before last season. NYY added Paxton.
Other teams see needs and try to fill them. The Dodgers mostly stand pat, and then have people hail them for going with the youngsters, not spending too much. I’m not saying that you say that, you have supported various acquisitions and risks in deals. Most teams do it, but the Dodgers hate it. Maybe this Betts deal will belie that, but it probably won’t happen. The Dodgers have enough to win the division for at least this year. I very much doubt that they win the title. If they do, I will be very excited, and I will also upbraid myself for not taking advantage of the bargain +635 current price. But I would not take those odds offered, not unless we do something more than picking up a once-excellent reliever who had a very poor season last year.
William, I like conversing with you. I know neither one of us will ever change each others mind, but it is fun, at least for me. I look forward to doing more of this when I do finally retire.
Actually I have already placed my bet on the Dodgers. But I do that every year, so it doesn’t really mean anything. It is my only gambling for the year.
Not that it matters, but we do know how the Cole bidding went. Kasten, Boras, and Cole all said that Cole wanted to be a NYY and once they hit $324MM for 9 years, it ended. They have all said that the Dodgers were not afforded the opportunity to counter. Now I will agree that what we do not know is if NYY said to Cole that he had to accept the $324MM offer or they would pull it. They had no desire to get into a bidding war with the Dodgers, and I agree that we will never know if the Dodgers would have countered.
I was a Verlander over Darvish fan, even though at the time, Darvish had slightly better numbers. And I agree wholeheartedly that Justin would have waived his no trade to come to the Dodgers, although I believe it was more Kate Upton, his fiance (at the time), who loved the “Hollywood lifestyle”. The problem was that Verlander’s contract included 2018. While the word “mandate” may not have been used, it was clear that the Dodgers were under extreme pressure (from MLB) to get under the CBT threshold by 2018. Kasten did say that it was important to get under the threshold in 2018, not so much 2019, and not at all in 2020. I have no idea if AF preferred Verlander to Darvish, but the ownership made the decision to stay under the threshold. Now fans can be upset with that position, but it nevertheless played a role. Mark and I had some good discussions on my preference for Verlander, but I understood and accepted the business realty. But I am not going to say that we missed winning WS because of not signing him. He has never won a WS game, and he should have lost two to the Dodgers in 2017. He was baled out in Game 2, and lost Game 6. Would he have won if he were a Dodger? We will never know. But without the cheating, should the Dodgers have actually beat the Astros in 2017. IMO, yes, but again we will never know.
Adding Greinke did not get the Astros what they wanted.
I do not believe for a minute that the roster today will be the roster after July 31.
I absolutely agree with you that AF sometimes (most of the time), takes too long to make a decision. He spends a lot of time on the elites, and other useful additions are missed because of that time spent. Sometimes he gets what he wants (Darvish and Machado), and sometimes he does not (he wanted Hamels but “settled” for Hill) Last year he was working on a Felipe Vazquez when all of the other relievers were picked up, and he did not get Vazquez (thank goodness). I do not remember all of the relievers who were dealt last year, but Atlanta got three; Melancon, Greene, and Martin. Twins got Dyson. Washington got Hudson. The three relievers Atlanta traded for were not much help in their stated goal. But Hudson was a good find for Washington. Giles went nowhere because of fear of his arm. Where else did they miss out? You are never going to get an argument out of me when it comes to the absolute need for the Dodgers to improve their bullpen.
I read an interesting piece on another site that I like to visit…“There were 11 relievers who signed for multiple years last season. Six had zero or negative WAR (Baseball Reference version). Just two improved on their WAR from 2018 to 2019, and just three ([Zack] Britton, [Adam] Ottavino and Justin Wilson) improved their ERA.”. One thing I will agree with Mark on when it comes to relievers, they are a crapshoot. But that does not mean they should ignore relievers who have been successful in the past and try to get them. That is why I like Treinen. He is very much worth the $10MM risk. I would also be fine with a trade for Giles.
As much as I would like to see Betts in a Dodger uni next year, I agree with you that the odds and not very good that both teams will come to an understanding. Chaim Bloom knows very well how AF always likes to get the best of any deal.
AC awhile back Edwin Diaz was mentioned by some folks as someone who might be available from the Mets. I was intrequed by that as his value is low after a lousy year. But he’s young and if healthy, I think he would be an great addition at the right price. Then there was no more talk about him. Did something happen to end this talk like the Mets saying he wasn’t going anywhere or did the conversation just drift off in a different direction. He was filthy in 2018 and it’s hard to believe he’s washed up. Do you know anything about him? I love the kid.
I think a little of both. I think Diaz is a great bounceback candidate. Van Wagenen has stated that he is not selling Diaz at his lowest point. Carlos Beltran has gone on record indicating that he does not want Diaz moved, and he will take his fellow Puerto Rican under his wing. I would guess that if Diaz continues to struggle he could be available at the trade deadline. Seth Lugo and Justin Wilson were the sole relievers that were decent last year. I have read that Van Wagenen wants to put Lugo in the rotation. They do not trust Familia or Brach. They picked up Betances, and I think that could be a good pickup if he gets his health back. I know Dodgerrick is very apprehensive about Betances because of his wildness, but he strikes out so many that those that he walks still do not score. He throws a lot of pitches. Wacha may end up in the pen with Gsellman. The Mets have too many question mark relievers that they are not going to sell low on Diaz. They gave up some tremendous prospects and absorbed an anchor contract for Cano ($20MM thru 2023). I see them waiting it out to see if Diaz can recover.
Excellent comments by AC as usual.
One nitpick regarding Justin Verlander in 2017. He actually pitched quite well in 2017 postseason. He was 4-0 in playoffs and ALCS MVP. In the World Series, yes the Astros lost both games he started but JV pitched well. In those two games, his ERA was 3.75 and his WHIP was 0.58 in 12 IP. For comparison, Yu Darvish WS ERA was 21.60 and his WHIP was 3.30 in the 3.1 IP he managed in 2 starts. (And yes, Yu had two great starts in playoffs that year with 1.60 era).
Also, in the Verlander trade to Astros, the Tigers paid part of the Verlander salary, so the dodgers likely could have had help with 2018 CBT in a Verlander trade.
It is now ancient history, but you were still right that Verlander would have helped more in 2017.
Always Compete
I’d rather Friedman beat the final offers for Will Harris and Drew Pomeranz and even Tyler Clippard than to be in this situation where it’s going to cost money and prospects to get Betts and Price, whom we don’t need either one of them.
I have total confidence in our offense which is why I believe we don’t need Betts and then Price is not a solution to our pitching problem.
Pomeranz 4 years 40 million.
Harris 3 years 30 million.
Clippard 1 year 5 million.
No prospects lost and the team and farm would be in better shape than any deal made for Betts and Price.
… and maybe you could have a bullpen as bad as Colorados in the process. That’s exactly what they did.
Mark you and I have a different philosophy about relievers and we will never agree. Hell if you had your way, you wouldn’t have any relievers on your team and just let the starters go 9 innings or you would have 13 starting pitchers that way you don’t have to deal with the so called “crapshoot” you call relievers.
Using Colorado’s pitching staff as some example is not good considering how the ball travels in that thin air.
And I can guarantee Betts is going to be a free agent after this season.
I think early on, the Dodgers figured out that Cole wanted to go to the Yankees so they just bid it up to make sure they paid dearly for him. I think the Dodgers would have stopped around $260. Just a guess.
Gotta love this stuff. Interesting comparison with the 2012 trade with one “slight” difference, the Dodgers were desperate to make something big happen in 2012, to officially proclaim We’re Not Frank McCourt. Oh, yah, we’re also getting ready to make a massive TV deal that will shake the industry. We need to refocus LA on the Dodgers. The best way to do that? Nothing says it better than a foundation rocking trade of epic proportions. The money alone is staggering. First Guggenheim pays $2.1 billion for the team and now they absorb close to $300 million in contracts.
Who the hell is Guggenheim? What are they doing? This wasn’t just analyzed within the MLB, but by economists and business analysts. They officially had LA’s attention and the rest of the country as well. It was all part of the plan because the new owners weren’t looking at the Dodgers as just a baseball franchise. They had a different vision.
That brings us to this moment in time. This is not a desperate situation. Whether you like it or not, this is not 2012. This is a team that won 106 games. They’ve won seven straight NL West titles . They’ve been to two World Series in the past three years. They were a couple outs away from beating the eventual champion. They should have won in 2017. They had young stars, a great farm system with more impact players coming. So, yah, desperate they’re not. They have money to spend, but it takes two to make a deal.
Look, I get the World Series angst, a series of What Were You Thinking Moments? Peter O’Malley not wanting to increase payroll in the 90s, believing that only big corporations could be successful in the new era. The bad trades: Martinez, Wetteland, Piazza, Konerko and not re-signing Beltre. Changes in ownership from O’Malley to Fox to McCourt.
I believe we’ve reached critical stage, more a sense than anything else. But the Dodgers aren’t desperate. They will make calculated decisions, which focus on the present, but with an eye on the future. Stan Kasten said as much. If you want to understand the Dodgers and the thinking, listen carefully because they are telling you what’s coming. There was a reason he tossed in names like Hudson and Pearce, the 2018 WS MVP. Sometimes, it’s the little moves that are actually difference makers.
Now, this is the LA Dodgers and not the Atlanta Braves, ownership understands that. Stars are cool. But that doesn’t mean they will jump off the cliff in a desperate attempt to win a World Series or make something happen. Remember Kasten said they want to be successful over the long term.
So, how do they spend the money they have? That is the question. Trade? Betts and Price? Price is certainly available, but is Betts? Only if the Red Sox are desperate. David Vassegh says his sources in Boston say Betts isn’t being traded.
How about Lindor? Or Clevinger? The Angels were talking to the Indians about the pitcher. The discussion immediately center on Jo Adell, the team’s top prospect. End of discussion, even though the Angels are indeed desperate when it comes to pitching.
Why not let the market play out? Perhaps the Dodgers are doing just that, not wanting to overpay. Probably not what you want to hear, but no doubt reality.
There are few things you count on in life, other than Mark wanting to trade AJ Pollock or sign Castellanos, but the Dodgers will again win the NL West and enter the playoffs with a good chance to win a World Series. They will no doubt make a move or two, perhaps this week or next, but definitely at the July trade deadline.
Remember one of the best trades the Dodgers never made included a young pitcher with an unusual first name, Orel.
I understood the full economics picture of the Dodgers pursuit of AGon (and others), and have written about them in the past. The acquisition of Hanley Ramirez also enhanced the roster earlier that year. But that was not my point with this. It was just players and contracts and the impact on the game, and salary levels a team was willing to absorb. The 23% increase in attendance made the team relevant again. The billions in TV revenue made the owners wealthier. And while the team cannot do anything about it, the bad PR they get because a good portion of LA cannot see the games is taking a toll. It does not impact me as I do not live in LA and have MLB TV.
As far as trades not made and Orel, I am not advocating trading any of the top tier prospects (top 6). And Betts is a much better risk than Jim Sundberg.
Excellent article, AC!
Agree that Dodgers should pursue either Walker or Wood as a 1 year pillow contract. Both have shown ability to be quality MLB starters and offer low risk bounceback potential. This signing will provide some starting pitching depth, and allow AF some flexibility to wait until the trade deadline if necessary before making Betts, Lindor or Bryant trade.
If they make Betts/Price trade, the Dodgers will be taking on $125 million in contract commitments, primarily for one year of Betts. While Boston would likely have to pay part of Price’s contract for the next three years, the Dodgers should not give one of their top 6 prospects in a Betts/Price trade. And I would prefer to retain Maeda and Stripling as both have been solid starting pitchers at reasonable cost.
I would propose the following package for Betts/Price:
Pollock or Joc
Rios
Wong
Either White, Santana, or Grove
Of course, the return to Boston will vary based on their player preferences, and based on how much of Price’s contract they subsidize. But the primary purpose of the trade is Dodgers using cash and CBT space for one year of Betts.
I realize that Wood may be fairly desperate to get a major league contract at this point, but I think this might be one of the last places he’d want to sign. He’s made it clear that he much prefers starting to relieving and if he came back here, he’d probably just be a left handed version of Stripling, being moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen as needed. For a guy with back problems that isn’t an idea situation. Wood would be much better off signing with the Angels (or almost any other club) if he had a choice.
Good point on Wood. Unlikely to return to dodgers with their starting pitching depth.
Angels supposedly inquiring about Clevinger. Hard to see them getting that done without including Adell. Love to know what Indians would want for Clevinger from us. Not Lux but everyone else would be on the table for me
I’d prefer Lindor/Clevinger and I would be willing to include Lux in that deal. I prefer not to include May but if Cleveland were willing (and we don’t know what they’re asking for other than Lux) I would be willing to give up Lux, May and Ruiz like So CalBum suggested. I would first however counter with a package of Maeda, Ruiz, Lux, Rios and one of Kike/Taylor. I’d throw in Garlic or Pederson if that would get the deal done. Personally, I think the Dodgers should go all out and get Clevinger/Lindor then go get Betts/Price as well.
That way they can win it all in 2020 and then suck for 5 years .
If I posted to trade Lux, May, and Ruiz for Lindor and Clevinger then forgive me — I had obviously eaten some psychedelic mushrooms! Never in a sane moment would I suggest that trade.
Sorry. obviously I misread that.
No problem; thought I was losing it.
I knew I saw it somewhere above. You mentioned it Mark that Steve Phillips suggested Lux, Ruiz and May for Clevinger and Lindor. As much as I would hate to give up May, I would do that trade if all else failed. Again, other than Lux, we don’t know who the Indians are asking for but I would prefer to offer a package of Maeda, Lux, Ruiz, Rios and Taylor and see if that would fly. Maybe Pollock, Stripling, Wong,Santana and Amaya for Betts/Price. Starting staff of Buehler, Clevinger, Kershaw, Price and May. Outfield of Bellinger, Betts and Verdugo. Turner 1B, Muncy 2B, Lindor SS and Seager 3B. Next off season, you try and resign Betts and possibly Turner. Even if we can’t resign Betts, Dodgers are not tanking with that lineup and you still have plenty of pups in the wings.
Pretty much.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1578328625
Thanks – Great Read!
The Dodgers could have 7 players in the Top 100?
The Tigers have a TOP 6 Farm System and the Dodgers are a”Tier above?” Wow!
Every prospect in BA’s #Dodgers Top 10 has future grades of 55 or better (with varying risk factors). https://t.co/NZmf5fXZwu
— Dustin Nosler (@DustinNosler) January 6, 2020
I am probably behind the times, but, can anyone tell me what happened to Stetson Allie?
He was / is a minor league free agent. I have not read, or heard that he has re-signed with Dodgers, or another team
Big arm, small strike zone — has not been able to consistently meld the two together
Thanks SoCalBum. At one time I thought he might make it up to the big league club. Wish him luck.
Kyle Glaser Dodger prospect chat:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1578328625
Lots of great info
Some great analysis. He seems high on Miguel Vargas and Jacob Amaya. That will make my son happy (his favorite players the second half of last year)
But, it’s sad to read Glaser’s comment about Jeren Kendall. I don’t disagree. The proof is in the pudding. But Kendall is a genuinely nice guy. Gave my son a broken bat last year. Since 2018, Jeren would walk over to the stands after BP in Rancho and talk to kids and fans for sometimes 10 minutes. Total Wisconsin kid. That is almost unheard of from a 1st round pick. I’m rooting for the guy.
Lots of great info on our youngsters. Thx Horse Dodger!
Thanks for the link to that minor league chat, guys! Great to know the machine will keep on churning!
Molly Knight has a new article in The Athletic. An excerpt:
“The Yankees cannot simply pencil themselves into the playoffs with the roster they have right now, as the Dodgers believe they can. Consider this quote from Kasten: “The team we have now is not going to be the team we have to start the postseason.” It’s bold to just assume the Dodgers can walk into October with the dudes they have currently, considering four other division teams exist and the Dodgers are one Walker Buehler elbow death away from having a serious problem in their rotation, but the NL West is so bad that the Dodgers don’t even stress about fielding their best team until the trade deadline. Which is wild. It’s also a big part of why fans are so frustrated.
“There is one huge caveat, however. Kasten said the Dodgers remain focused on adding superstars and offered his prediction that the team’s salary will pass the Competitive Balance Tax at some point this year. The CBT threshold is $208 million. According to longtime Dodgers payroll guru Eric Stephen of SB Nation, the current roster projects to cost around $165 million. That leaves $43 million for who exactly?”
I seriously doubt that the Red Sox, who want to win this year, will trade their best player for salary relief. It doesn’t make sense. I don’t expect to see Mookie Betts in Blue, if at all, until 2021 at the earliest.
I am no David Price fan, especially at a cost of $31 MM/year, although if the Sox took salary back it wouldn’t be so bad maybe, but Price’s best days are behind him and he isn’t the additional rotation piece that they need.
The question isn’t – is it worth one year of Mookie for 3 years of Price? The actual question is what makes you think that the Bosox are willing to let Mookie go if they in fact want to try to win this year?
True
”what makes you think that the Bosox are willing to let Mookie go if they in fact want to try to win this year?”
I think the answer to that question is: The fact that they are shopping him.
He’s a FA in 2021. If they can get some value for him while offloading all or most of Price’s contract; they would have to pursue that.
The Dodgers are one of the few teams with the MLB and prospect depth AND financial ability to make a deal work. So I’m not surprised the Dodgers are mentioned in rumors almost exclusively.
That said, I agree in the sense that what it would take for Boston to forgo the best opportunity to win in 2020 (keeping Betts) may be more than the Dodgers are willing to pay in prospects and assumed salaries.
The Red Sox know the odds that The Price is Right the next three years is unlikely. If they shipped Price and Betts to the Dodgers, they would save $60 million next year and $120 million in total.
What if the Dodgers took all that salary and gave them four prospects like Rooney, Grove, Uceta, and Ortiz?
Would that get them to budge?
You can’t get Top Prospects if you take all the salary and the Farm System stays strong. They are Top 3 and could be #1.
And that belief Mark, was my only problem with Boston trade in 2012. We didn’t get any cash help from Boston, we took all the financial burdens, and STILL sent some top prospects!
I thought we overpaid with prospect capital, by sending Alan Webster AND Rubby de la Rosa. They were our two top pitching prospects after we had already trade Eovaldi to Miami for Hanley a few months earlier. I didn’t think we should have sent both pitchers since Boston didn’t help out financially. Granted Webster and RDLR didn’t do a whole lot, but that’s not the point.
I hope we stand more firm this time around with Boston. The more money they give us for Price, the better the prospect they get. I’d hope we take less cash and send back less in prospects.
I think Blowback is a major consideration for the Red Sox (like any other team).
People here know the Dodger system. We know how deep it is. We know the individual players at all levels. Boston has to consider real word concerns AND the marketing/business side.
Betts is a huge star in Boston. Trading him, in all scenarios, makes the team worse in 2020. So does moving Price. Price may not be worth what he’s being paid but he’s an effective starter.
Just like the Dodger fans who STILL think the Farmer trade was terrible (it was F*ing brilliant), fan perspective is a factor.
If they make a deal that makes sense financially and in terms of system depth, they know they might be crucified by fans. Burned in effigy for another sub par year where they “gave away” the MVP.
I think that is a factor that might make the deal unworkable.
We can geek out and put together a trade that improves both teams. But that doesn’t mean it will get done. If every comment section of every social media and blog was as good as this one: maybe.
I agree. I can’t see Betts leaving without Price going with him. The fans know Betts will be a free agent in 2021 and if Boston can move another large contract in addition to Betts and Price, I’m guessing they could get under CBT in 2020 and then be aggressive again for 2021.
My worry is still whether the Dodgers will give Betts enough to sign him as a free agent if Price eats up $32M of the payroll.
I would really enjoy watching this team play?
SS Lindor
RF Betts
CF Bellinger
1B Turner with Vargas being heir apparent.
3B Seager
LF Pederson
C Smith
2B Lux
Let’s not repost The Athletic content, please
I don’t have a problem with it, as long as it is not in its entirety and not frequent. They feel the same way. I have talked with them. They have gotten a number of readers from here.
Bluto,
I know you work for a startup.
Is it The Athletic?
Simple Yes or No…
No
I think it’s setting up for a scenario similar to Manny Machado with Mookie Betts. I guess we could make it happen now if we agree to take on Price, but I suspect AF would rather part with prospects than take on Price’s remaining money.
I think the Red Sox wait until the deadline to finally deal Betts, partly to see how if they’re still in contention and partly because they’re insistent on pairing Betts with Price. By the deadline – provided they’re not a serious contender – they lose some nerve and become a little more agreeable. I think the Machado deal gives a rough template of what it will ultimately cost, so probably one of our blue chippers or maybe two top 10 guys. I’d probably be okay with that if we feel he’ll give us a shot at re-signing him. I love the player and he’d look great in blue.