The Next Wave

Posted By on December 26, 2019

The Dodgers Farm System produced nine new Dodgers last year, three of whom are still on the Baseball Prospectus Dodgers Top 20 Prospects (Lux, May, and Gonsolin):

  1. Gavin Lux, SS
  2. Dustin May, RHP
  3. Josiah Gray, RHP
  4. Miguel Vargas, 3B
  5. Keibert Ruiz, C
  6. Tony Gonsolin, RHP
  7. Diego Cartaya, C
  8. Jeter Downs, SS
  9. Kody Hoese, 3B
  10. Gerardo Carrillo, RHP
  11. Michael Busch, 2B
  12. DJ Peters, OF
  13. Jacob Amaya, IF
  14. Omar Estevez, IF
  15. Mitch White, RHP
  16. Conner Wong, C
  17. Michael Grove, RHP
  18. Dennis Santana, RHP
  19. Cristian Santana, 3B/1B
  20. Brett de Geus, RHP

Edwin Rios gets a mention and it’s interesting what they say about him:

“I’ve spun many a tantalizing yarn about Edwin Ríos’ majestic power on these pages, and he didn’t disappoint in his long-anticipated major league debut. It was a tiny, meaningless sample, but dude’s exit velocity was up there in Judge/Sanó range in his limited looks at big-league pitching, and that’s fun! Not much of anything has changed in his profile or projection; he is smooth and sure-handed in the field, but he’s also slower than a spoon of molasses slathered onto a sloth’s fur coat, and it’s just not a realistic third-base future. That means he’s gotta hit. And keep hitting. And then hit some more. And he’s going to have to do that in spite of an approach that gets C.J. Cron a little flushed. He’s made it work at just about every step along the way, which is why we continue to write about him. But it’s a narrow, fraught path to generating enough positive value with the bat to justify a 25-man slot on a modern roster. The hope here, obviously, is that he does just that.” —Wilson Karaman

… as does Andy Pages as a “Low Minors Sleeper.” Here’s a snippet of what Wilson Karaman says about Pages:

“And by gum, if you squinted and adjusted your old-man spectacles up and down just so, that right there was a young Justin Turner in the batter’s box! Pages’ frame is mature for a kid who turned 19 last week, and he channels his strength into a lofted swing with quality bat speed. The stance is vertical, the hands show signs of loading consistently off a large leg kick, and he explodes through the hitting zone. There isn’t as much physical projection remaining as your typical teenager, but the raw power should grow into plus territory. “

Some of the prospects are almost “locks” to make the 2020 squad. I consider May, Lux, and Gonsolin of that ilk. Gray, Ruiz, and Carrillo also could see The Show before year-end and Mitch White, Mike Grove, and Dennis Santana could take big leaps forward and be part of a bullpen solution. The last three are more likely to arrive in 2021, but you never know. Progress is seldom linear.

Josiah Gray is destined to be a stud in the rotation… sooner than later and the other part of the trade with the Reds (Jeter Downs) is destined to be the next Kike Hernandez, in my opinion. It has been said that the Dodgers do not have a 3B in the pipeline… uh, I think Miguel Vargas could be the Dodgers 3B by 2021. This guy is a born 3B with thunder in his bat and very athletic. Dare I say that he reminds me of a young Adrian Beltre. Yes, that was a mouthful, but this kid is the total package. I might have ranked him 2nd, just behind Lux.

I am of the opinion, that Lux, May, Gray, Vargas, Ruiz, and Cartaya are players that will not be traded. Gerardo Carrillo could be a high-leverage bullpen arm pretty quickly as well.

These youngsters are going to be fun to watch. Here’s what I see for this year and next:

2020:

  1. Verdugo RF
  2. Turner 3B
  3. Bellinger CF
  4. Muncy 1B
  5. Pollock/Pederson LF
  6. Seager SS
  7. Smith C
  8. Lux 2B

Utility: Barnes, Beaty, Hernandez, Taylor, White

Rotation: Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Maeda, May

Bullpen: Treinen, Jansen, Kelly, Baez, Gonzalez, Ferguson, Gonsolin, Stripling

2021:

  1. Lux 2B
  2. Bellinger CF
  3. Verdugo RF
  4. Muncy 1B
  5. Pollock/Pederson LF
  6. Seager SS
  7. Smith/Ruiz C
  8. Vargas 3B

Utility: Beaty, Downs, Taylor, Turner (think David Freese)

Rotation: Buehler, Urias, May, Kershaw, Gray

Bullpen: Treinen, Jansen, Kelly, Gonzalez, Ferguson, Gonsolin, Carrillo, de Geus

I love watching the kids grow and this team is loaded with them right about now.

Today’s Music



This article has 38 Comments

    1. Well, he’s here now and unless he is traded, I think the Dodgers will at the very least, give him the QO if he has another good season in 2020.

      A platoon of Pollock and Pederson has the potential of 50 HR!

  2. I will predict that one of Joc/Verdugo will be sent to Boston in the Mookie Betts deal. Maybe both (or one plus Pollock) if we take on David Price’s contract.

    Anyone know how good Vargas D is at 3b? I thought I read that he was a tad slow? Beltre was electric at 3b, and one of the most complete 3b ever. Can Vargas handle himself as good as JT has at 3b?

    1. Here’s what BP says about that:

      “He plays a savvy defensive third base, displaying soft hands, a strong throwing arm, and impressive mobility and body control. At 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, Vargas shows quality athleticism in a frame that is in the process of getting stronger. The raw power is growing right along with him. His exceptional hand-eye coordination, bat-to-ball ability, and professional gap-to-gap hitting approach stand out; his at-bats have a plan, and he executes a quality swing when he gets his pitch. He’s surprisingly fleet of foot at present, keenly cutting the basepaths with solid acceleration. It was a season of exciting growth for Vargas, and he ends it as the biggest mover in the system.”

  3. If Vargas is that good, could that be the reason the Dodgers are not in on Donaldson? Donaldson seems to be Gibson-like in the clubhouse from what I’ve read and could be the catalyst to push the Dodgers over the hump. But if Vargas is all they say he is, then I’m sure the they don’t want to block him.

        1. I like Garlic… garlic bread, garlic stuffed olives… Oh wait! Kyle Garlick. Who knew? I love Kyle Garlick but he’s not a top prospect and odd-man-out in a crowded outfield, barring a trade.

  5. I would be more than happy with Mark’s lineups in 2020 and 2021. Downs would still be available for 2022 if Seager didn’t re-sign.

  6. Or, if Seager doesn’t sign and I think the Dodgers want to re-sign him, but he is a Scott Boras client and so is Cody Bellinger, they could always go in on Lindor, who they obviously really like. Interesting that Boras believes that Bellinger will be a Dodger for a long time, but no mention of Seager. I think the injuries derailed him a bit. Everybody is waiting to see what happens in ‘20.

    It has been suggested that the Dodgers get ahead of the curve and sign extensions with Bellinger, Seager and Buehler now, which would make sense. Trout did it twice with the Angels. There is some history of Friedman doing that. One of the big three, maybe it was Buehler, said he would be interested in that. For the right dollars, the Dodgers could ink all three. They did that with Clayton Kershaw.

    I’m guessing that length of contract is the primary obstacle to signing Donaldson, the same as it was for Ryu. Plus, the Dodgers already have Justin Turner at third. Short term, high dollar contracts really make more sense to the Dodgers when it comes to players well into their 30s, especially those with some injury history.

    I was wondering about Vargas, haven’t seen him play, but early reports are promising. Of course, there is also Hoese. Found comments by Gavin Lux about Zack McKinstry interesting. He raves about his skills, a future play everywhere player for the Dodgers.

    1. I doubt that Seager would sign an extension at this point. With the various stories about the Dodgers not being happy with his response to the hitting coaches and the fact that they’re obviously interested in Lindor and that would necessitate moving Seager to third (where he has indicated he doesn’t want to play at this stage of his career), I think there is little to no chance that Seager would sign an extension right now. Buehler and Bellinger might be another story, however, and AF should at least see what it would take. With the CBA up at the end of 2021 I can’t imagine Boras would advise any client to extend a contract before the new agreement is in place.

  8. This was a well timed post and helps me get excited over the upcoming season and kids coming up! The investment and risk associated with the big names. Well, it would be nice to have a Cole for a couple years then I suspect it will be very ugly.

    Investing in the kids makes huge sense to me. Keep the profiles and peeks you see at greatness coming! Thank you for the site and all the contributions. 2020 is right around the corner.

    Any real news on Verdugo? Seems odd to me things are so quiet. Any hope for Toles to return?

    2. It’s important to take into account the source of the video. Anything involving Dennis Prager should be taken with a grain of sand.

        1. Can you provide any examples of inaccuracies from the video or are you just taking the opportunity to make a political statement?

  11. Mark I love your optimism. Is there any Dodger top 10 minor leaguer who won’t be a starter and future all star. Quite a stretch putting Vargas and Beltre in the same sentence. And sorry 2020 starters not good enough to win a WS. Do you really want Kersh to face that Yankee right hitting monster lineup twice in one series. Not me! I’d love to take a shot at Morton from Tampa for one year rental as our #2 . And we wouldn’t have to give up May or Lux to get a deal done. Then it gives us a year to see if Urias or May develop into a second ace for 2021.

    1. Well, I caught a lot of flack when Beltre came up and I said he would be a HOF’er. I am not saying that Vargas is of that caliber… but he could be close. We will learn a lot this year.

      What do you mean by a star? Lux is a likely All-Star, as is May. Vargas could be there as well, along with Ruiz. The others are role players.

      Charlie Morton is 36 and has never pitched 200 innings.

      He has pitched 146, 167 and 194 innings the past 3 years.

      His ERA the past 3 years has been 3.62, 3.13 and 3.05.

      He’s a downgrade over Clayton.

      TB would ask for May +

      Also, I have heard that he wants to stay on the East Coast and would retire rather than go to the West Coast.

      Look at the Yankee Starters. They should be worried about the Dodgers.

      1. Cole – Very Great!
      2. Tanaka – Never pitched 200 innings (Career 3.75 ERA/4.45 Last year) Arm is hanging by a thread
      3. Paxton – 160 innings is his max ever (Career 3.50 ERA)
      4. Severino – 190 + Innings in 17 and 18. Missed almost all of 19.
      5. Happ – The very mention of his name instills fear.

      The Yankees rotation has some big problems – they are very brittle. Chapman, Ottavino, and Britton are a year older. The Yankees lost the ALCS because of their bullpen. It will likely get worse in 2020.

  12. Sorry Mark but as is we would be big dogs against Yankees if we meet in WS next year and Mortons stuff is way better than Kersh’s now. We only need him for one year. Sure I’d rather have Clevinger but really don’t want to give up May or Lux. At this point in his career there is no justification pitching Kersh twice in any series.

  13. Prospects are just that, until they aren’t.

    I am responsible for hiring attorneys in my office. When we hire a young lawyer, we have at best a 33% chance that they will be good lawyers, will have a good work ethic, and will want to stay with us for more than a year or 2. We usually hire 2 at once figuring that if we’re lucky 1 will stay.

    Not all prospects, even blue chippers, become regular every day MLB players, let alone All Stars. Wishing it were so does not make it so.

    So – maybe Lux washes out – maybe he becomes a journeyman – maybe a star. You can’t know. No one can.

    That doesn’t mean you don’t build from having a good minor league system. It does mean that you can’t rely on all of your prospects to make it big though.

    If you are a team with championship aspirations, you don’t commit 40% of your starting rotation to unproven prospects. You don’t commit 50% of your top 8 starters (Urias, May, Gonsolin and Gray) to untested kids.

    I observed the other day that outside of Buehler and Kershaw, the Dodgers have no starting pitchers who have proven that they can pitch effectively all season long. Maeda famously fades in the 2nd half, and Stripling did as well in the one season that he mostly started.

    Urias and Gonsolin have never thrown more than about 80 innings in a season. Gray has only been a pitcher for 3 years. May threw 140 innings last year but he is only 21 and the Dodgers won’t push him. None of these 4 will throw 150 innings in the Majors next season.

    The Dodgers are not Lake Wobegon – not all of the children are above average.

    1. A lot of hiring is training after the hire.

      It is proven that human development can be greatly improved with training and other enhancements.

      The Dodgers have implemented numerous programs and have added coaches and others to help the kids along the way. That is part of the reason they are currently very successful and likely will continue to be.

      At my company, our rate of hiring and retaining TOP people is well over 50%, but we go through 3 to 5 interviews and our training program is designed to raise their confidence levels very quickly (small wins = bigger wins).

      One of the biggest obstacles to humans is their own self-doubt! I think the Dodgers try to build confidence every step of the way, so I expect “above industry average” results.

      I do not think the Dodgers will get that other experienced starter until Mid-Season. Let’s see how it shakes out is what I think they are thinking.

        1. Well, there is that… although I have dealt with them more than I would like and the possibility exists that there was a time when I could pass the Bar!

  14. I agree with just about everything said.

    I’m glad too see Miguel Vargas is getting some attention. No other Dodger prospect has such wide variation in rankings. As high as 16 in some lists, as low as 4 in others. He is an intriguing prospect. In my mind the wild card is his age and size. He turned 20 only last month. He has the hit tool that could easily play at 3b on the MLB level in 2021.

    When Manny Machado was drafted he was listed at 6 ft 2 and 180 lbs. He is now 6 ft 3, 215.
    By the time the season starts Miguel might very well be at 6 ft 3, 215 as well. (no, I’m not predicting he’s the next Manny. Just a size/age comparison).

    A bit apples to oranges, but at 20 Miguel Sano was listed at 6 ft 3 200 lbs. Today he is listed at 6 ft 4 and his weight is now calculated in British Imperial Stones.

    I’m curious how Miguel (Vargas) develops in terms of power and physically. If he can tap into that power while not bulking up too much, I think he’s got a great shot at playing 3B for a long time.

    And as I’ve mentioned before, he’s always been awesome to my kid. So I am bias.

    1. Here’s a few players I have had the feeling they had “IT.” Whatever it is…

      1. Adrian Beltre
      2. Clayton Kershaw
      3. Corey Seager
      4. Cody Bellinger
      5. Alex Verdugo
      6. Julio Urias
      7. Striker Buehler
      8. Andy LaRoche… nobody’s perfect!

  15. Rudybyrd, I disagree with your assessment of Prager, but regardless that video was done by the author of the book. I don’t think Dennis Prager had any influence on him and what his research showed. The point was lying about people is evil I doubt you disagree with that.

  17. Merry Christmas and Happy Hollidays to everyone on this site from the Verdugo Family. I enjoy alot of your discussion and viewpoints, probably the most detail oriented Dodger site out there!

    1. Detail oriented enough to know what an asset Alex is. Hope his back is ok. Happy Holidays to all the Verdugos.

    2. So Chris,

      Can I interview Alex?

      If not, then you can give us a full report?

      I am of the opinion that had Alex been healthy, we would still be sipping the champagne.

      Could he ever have been a two-way player (like Otani)?

      Thank you for the compliment, Chris, but the site is about to get better tomorrow as our new writer is in the cue!

Comments are closed.