I’m the new guy here and I hope to live up to the standards of this blog. I see LADT as top quality with its participants being amongst the most cerebral of Dodger fans out there. I don’t make that statement lightly. I’ve visited them all and this isn’t a site where you can state an opinion and not back it up with facts and good logic. You’ll get called out pretty quick if you’re sloppy, but that’s good. It makes the writers bring a quality product to the site. I hope to not disappoint.
I have read the posts and I’m not Ross Porter, nor a former employee of the Dodgers. I’m just a regular guy that has an opinion. My name is Evan Bladh and I’ve been engaged in Dodger blogs and message boards all the way back to when the world wide web came into vogue.
I started at the AOL message board in the 90s, then the L.A. Times Board, and Ben Platt’s Dodger web site board, though I’m not sure of the order. Yes, I was there under various aliases. About the time Dodger Thoughts was winding down, I decided to create a blog under the google format. That blog, Opinion of Kingman’s Performance lasted about 5-6 years with a daily post. I was a one-man show and it was exhausting keeping the ideas flowing and creativity fresh all the while holding down a job and raising a family. When my real job as a federal law enforcement officer ramped up and transferred me to the nation’s capital in 2014, I just could not dedicate the time to it any longer. Eventually, my posts trickled off to almost nothing especially when I was assigned to South America for 18 months. When I returned back home to California in late 2017, my time freed up a bit and I tried to get the old blog up and running again, but the readership had disappeared during my absence. It was going to require a lot of leg work via social media marketing to get everyone back. I just couldn’t do it.
For the last few years, I sent an occasional piece to another site, but Mark’s request for a once a week writer really piqued my interest. Simply because I believe that LADT attracts not the casual fan, but the highest caliber of Dodger fan. The comments on the pieces posted are extremely well thought out here. It kind of reminds me of that scene from My Cousin Vinny when Vinny finally spews out an organized, logical and concise argument:
Anyway, as I post my writings over time, I’ll sneak in tidbits about my background and the fan experience that I bring to the table. I believe in advanced metrics, but don’t profess to be an expert about them. I’m learning. I grew up on Dodger baseball in the late 60s/early 70s and was a Strat-O-Matic junkie during that period as well as a kid. So traditional stats, as meaningless as they are when it comes to building a strong franchise, they still have some meaning to me.
I try to wrap myself around stats like WAR, wOBP, wRC+, BABIP, and OPS+, and I come to a realization that this is the evolution of the game as baseball advances into the future. You’d be a fool not to adjust and evolve with the growth of the game. Batted ball MPH is about as important a stat that can exist. Why didn’t I think of that?
The traditional stats are sexy and carry some mystique, but as advanced analytics are further understood, I believe eventually stats like RBI, AVG., ERA, and Wins will be phased out of importance. To many, they already are. It’s the dinosaurs like me that keep them alive. I still can’t help seeing .300 as a magical number when it comes to BA.
The Baseball Writers Association of America and even now the Veteran Hall of Famers on the veteran’s committee is already beginning to look at advanced metrics with their HOF votes. Who would have thought Ted Simmons would beat out a guy like Steve Garvey in a HOF vote 35 years ago?
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Let me change things up and talk about Andrew Freidman. Lately, the blogosphere and social media have been attacking him and it’s brutal. There are so many ignorant people out there that have no clue about what is going on. As I read all the vitriol and criticism spewed in his direction, I think it’s time to look at the hand he was dealt when he came aboard in 2014 and evaluate how he has performed:
As a General Manager, he joined a storied franchise with relatively new ownership and a fan base that expects to win every year. He was given the edict to win and do it without rebuilding, an almost impossible task. He inherited a payroll that was the highest in the league and well over the Competitive Balance threshold. He had a lot of dead weight contracts of players either retired, on their way to retirement or released and playing for other organizations (Crawford, A. Gonzalez, League, Brian Wilson, Alex Guerrero, Arruebarrena, Matt Kemp).
The organization had it valuable prospects that he immediately identified who was untouchable, (Seager, Urias, Bellinger, later Buehler). He needed to exercise prudence when signing free agents, and not overspend. It was a true balancing act as he did everything he could to snatch up players on short, expensive deals that did not mortgage the future of the franchise, (Rollins, Brett Anderson, Kazmir, McCarthy, Forsythe). He hoped they would pan out and keep his team competitive until the money was freed up years down the road.
He was forced to remain patient, despite the demands of a fan base that is fed up impatiently waiting for a championship after a 25-year drought. He hired some talented analytical men (Anthopoulos, Zaidi, Byrnes, Kingston, Gasparino, Kapler, Ibanez) in the front office and took on the tactic of building the farm system structure and finding players from outside the country where it is less restrictive and he could possibly to land some talent that may have flown under the radar of scouts.
He hired a manager (Roberts) that came relatively cheap and possessed skills with interpersonal relationships and getting his players to perform. Though he may be lacking as a tactical field manager, it was hoped that he’d learn from his mistakes and be groomed to improve in that area.
As the team performed well in a Division that isn’t viewed as the most competitive in the game, the ball club performed admirably winning the NL West each year and advancing as far as the league championship series (2016). All the while overpaid vets (AGon, Crawford, McCarthy, Kazmir) failed and were viewed skeptically by the fan base. Regardless of the criticism, the ballclub averaged 97 wins a season over the five years of his tenure, with its poorest showing being a 91 win season, (2016).
He made some good deals, picked up a few overperformers (Taylor, Freese, Wood, Morrow, Cingrani, Watson) and the team won at franchise-record paces (2017 and 2019). Kids he refused to part with in potential trade deadline deals have panned out on the major league level, (Seager, Bellinger, Urias, Buehler, Beaty, Smith). Ownership granted him permission to take on big-money contracts in mid-season trades, (Darvish ’17, Machado ’18). He did so and the ball club broke through and won its first pennant in 29 years. BUT it still was not enough for the fickle fans that only see one thing to measure success: a World Series championship.
Following his fifth year at the helm, there appeared to be some money to spend as he had finally ridden out most of the albatross contracts, but then the market for free agents went haywire. Gerrit Cole, a coveted starting pitcher went to his boyhood loyal team, the New York Yankees in a $324 million/9-year deal. Anthony Rendon signed with Anaheim for 7 years at $245 million. Strasburg returned to the Nats for the same amount and years as Rendon. Even lower-tier pitchers such as Zack Wheeler signed for 5 years with Philadelphia for $118 million.
By using common sense and not paying outlandish prices, Friedman has stood pat and decided to go with young arms in your system, (May, Gonsolin, Urias), saving the franchise hundreds of millions. Additionally, setting him up for a mid-year deal when he can accurately identify what the team needs to go over the top. Meanwhile, there are those in the fanbase that call for his removal.
In the history of the Dodger franchise, it can be argued that there has never been a more successful five year period than those under Andrew Friedman. With a little bit of luck (and less cheating from the likes of Hinch, Cora, et al), this team could have won three titles. Meanwhile, we go with the kids. And there are a bunch of good ones.
Oh, and as Mark is often reminding us. Casty is still out there for the taking.
Welcome Evan, we look forward to your posts and yes, Casty is still out there!
Welcome Evan, good luck!!
Welcome aboard Evan! I look forward to what you’ll add to the pot of stew that’s stirred here on a daily basis. I agree that the posters on this board are among the most ardent and intelligent Dodger fans around. I learn from them daily.
Welcome Evan. Good summary.
Welcome Evan. It’s great having you here.
Look forward to reading your articles. Used to enjoy your write-ups on OKP.
Evan, I too welcome you. I have enjoyed reading you for some time on another site.
Mookie Betts has a better chance than Nicholas Castellanos of becoming a Dodger in 2019. One other trait about Andrew, besides relying on his farm, is that he generally sticks with players he has brought to the team, until they can no longer perform. Even if you beleive that Castellanos is a significant upgrade over AJ Pollock, the chances of AF moving AJ to make room for Castellanos are not good. He believes in AJ Pollock, and one absolutely horrific NLDS is not going to change that.
Cleveland will not want AJ’s contract in any potential trade for Lindor or Clevinger. But it is possible that AF could move AJ to Boston in a Betts or a Betts/Price trade.
While it is still possible, it is getting even more less likely that Joc will be moved. Since LAD will still be facing more RHP than LHP, Joc is still going to get his 500 PA and potential 30+ HR’s (depending on the ball). Joc/AJ or Joc/Kike’ or Joc/CT3 should be a better platoon with far superior defense than what Castellanos can bring.
Looking forward to hearing from you often, welcome.
Welcome Evan, Nice summary. What Friedman has had to do takes patience, foresight and restraint and I too think he has done a great job. I’m new to the Dodger blogs but have been following them since Drysdale was still pitching. I’ve always thought the best way to build a team was through the farm system and the Dodgers have a great one!
I look forward to reading your articles.
Welcome Evan! I look forward to reading your posts, but you kinda sound just like Mark with less name calling.
AF has done a terrific job lowering the payroll while remaining competitive, skills he no doubt developed while working for the Rays. I give him an A grade in that department. Same with player development and organization structure. But, not all is roses and unicorns. Urias’ development has been a train wreck so far, our manager continues to make the same mistakes and we haven’t been able to get over the hump. We peaked in 2017 and have slipped a little more each year in the post season thereafter. While saber-metrics is the not so new trend, baseball always seems to balance itself out over time, unlike the Dodgers lineup. Speaking of, we’ve been very left handed for years now and it keeps showing up in the winning percentage against lefty starters. While the Nationals won with the age old system of Speed and on base skills at the top, balanced power in the middle and high contact veteran hitters at the bottom, we’re still batting saber-esque “three true outcome” hitters in Joc and Muncy at the top of our lineup.
It’s very hard to argue the success of a 106 win team, until it gets door shown to them by the wild card team. While the Nats stuck to their bullpen, we flailed to improve ours at the deadline and it reared its ugly head in Game 5. It almost didn’t matter with a potential Will Smith walk-off, but the baseball gods did not comply. Was it just bad luck? Judging by the lack of off-season activity, maybe that’s the thought of this front office. So far, we’re pretty much the same team as we were last year, replacing a couple of very good veteran pitchers with long injury histories with young guns that are talented, but unproven. We also added bounce back candidate closer with some of the best stuff in baseball. AF is either smartly waiting out the trade market to make a fair deal on a rental superstar that will most likely have a domino effect on the roster, or he stupidly waited too long to make significant upgrades through a risk adverse approach to free agency. Time will tell. But, one thing is for sure. AF is a smart guy, but is he the best? Not until he gets a ring.
Castellanos will not be a Dodger. Even Helen Keller can see that.
Starting in 2012, the Nationals begin building a powerful team, they started with Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Adam LaRoche, Stephen Strasburg, and others. They got to the NLDS and lost. They did not make the playoffs in 2013 but added Anthony Rendon. In 2014, they were again bounced from the playoffs in the first round. In 2015, they barely finished above .500 after winning 97 games in 2014 and again did not make the playoffs. In the process, they added Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. In 2016 and 2017, they were bounced from the playoffs in the first round. They finished 2018 two games over .500 and did not make the playoffs. In 2019, they lost their star, rebuilt the bullpen which ended up the worst in baseball. They signed some old and infirm players and used only 3 pitchers from the pen and won it all by just coming together at the right time. It was 8 years in the making! Rendon was a choke artist in his first two playoffs but was a beast in 2019.
A lot has to happen right to win it all. The Nats were inches away from losing the wild card game, but in a game of inches, luck was on their side. Everyone thinks the Yankees just bought themselves a World Series. Hello? Have you ever watched this game called baseball? I am willing to bet that it’s more likely the Yankees don’t even get to the Series, much less win it. Bellinger and Seager were not as bad as Rendon was in his first two playoffs, but it’s time to step up.
If you are good enough to get the playoffs, you are good enough to win. Remember, the team with 3 Aces did not win in 2019.
As a Dodger fan of over 60 years, I’ve seen it all but what drives me the most crazy is how much of a factor luck is in who winds up with that win in the last game every year.
Each team’s GM can do his best to stack the team with great players and that still doesn’t always lead to the championship. Look at the huge amount of injuries the Yankees suffered last year with a team that easily could have won it all. We had absolutely no chance of winning in 1988, yet we did.
A slight breeze out to right or hitting the ball a fraction of inch higher or lower on the bat and Will Smith is doing the rubber chicken circuit as the 2019 WS hero.
If we eliminate GM skill, player skill, financial advantages and luck, we go into each year with a 1 in 30 chance of being champs. Our odds improve because we do have some advantages that other teams don’t. But once we get down to the final few teams, luck often makes the difference. I’m still waiting for my lottery ticket to come up big but my odds of seeing a Dodger championship are far better. I’ll just have to be patient.
Welcome to this jungle! I also had a chance to live/work in South America for a little bit (Ecuador, 2013), and loved it. Nice people, great food, and pretty girls. 3 of my fave things.
As far as this comment: “With a little bit of luck (and less cheating from the likes of Hinch, Cora, et al), this team could have won three titles “, please add “if the best pitcher of his generation actually stepped up and carried us like the best pitcher of his generation is supposed to do, we’d have at least 3 titles in these last 7 years”. The Lakers would have zero rings if their stars were literally half as good in June as they were in Nov-May. Kobe, Shaq, Pau, Magic, Kareem, etc stepped up in the big moments. The Dodgers stars have not done that and that’s why we have zero rings. How does that change in 2020? It’s a 99% lock that we’ll be there in October. Now who steps up, and who fades as has been our norm?
When I commented above, I forgot to welcome you Evan (a great name which you happen to share with my son). Always nice to have another good writer added to the mix, and for that we all owe Mark a debt of gratitude.
So, I understand that you feel much more positive about Andrew than negative (a sentiment I share) but I’m not exactly sure how you feel about adding Castellanos. Yes, he’s out there for the taking. Do you want him?
Welcome Evan to the best site for knowledgeable Dodger opinion and comments. Enjoyed your article and looking forward to reading more. I have been a long-time fan, but some of the analytic stats still mystify me. Hope I can learn and understand them more.
Good column, Evan.
I was surprised that you included AGon in a list of failed vets. Kazmir, McCarthy, pretty much. I think the Dodgers got exactly what they wanted in AGon and he delivered. When the new ownership group took over they faced a skeptical and depressed fan base. Good old Frank McCourt, the mansions, the lifestyle, the divorce, the empty seats and protestors at the entry to Dodger Stadium.
Then it comes out that McCourt shares ownership in the parking lots with the new group. Over $2 billion and they couldn’t simply buy McCourt out of the parking lots. Seriously? And Magic couldn’t understand why fans would be angry about that? Go figure.
Back to AGon. The new owners needed to make a splash. Words alone weren’t going to do it. There was the strange incident with James Loney on the freeway, he wasn’t hitting, word was out that that Gonzalez wasn’t happy in Boston and that the Red Sox ownership might be looking to dump money/contracts. Add to that AGon would appeal to the team’s growing Hispanic fan base … the perfect storm. And Gonzalez delivered. The fans really liked him and he was great in the community.
They ended up taking more contracts back, think Beckett, than they wanted, but this was about more than just baseball. There was a massive TV contract out there. Only Guggenheim and Company understood that. Why else would you pay two billion dollars for a baseball team, valued at less than a billion? The new owners needed to make the Dodgers important again.
They’ve done that and then some.
If we’re realistic we would understand that they’re two ways to win a World Series. Luck or overwhelming talent that actually produces. Yes, the Nats had some great pitchers, some clutch hits, but they were lucky to get a win over the Brewers and the Dodgers should have beaten them.
Thanks for taking on the workload that keeps this site fresh and informative and crazy Evan.
…”There are so many ignorant people out there that have no clue about what is going on.” Ignorant is not dumb. We are all ignorant in the since we have a lack of knowledge of what is said in the internal Dodger leadership meetings but there is information out there that can reduce our ignorance if we take the time to research. Some here are more willing to do that than others. I am at best in the middle of the pack research wise.
Duke Snider and Sandy Koufax may have been my only favorites while they were active players that are HOFers. It was a lot easier to root for them than my more recent favorites Lefebre, Fairly, Loney, Pederson.
Like most MLB players, Pollock can be very good at times and I have always appreciated his talents. But if he were included in a package to get Diaz from the Mets there would be no hesitation on my part. I would like to add Betts and am maybe the only one here that would offer Verdugo. I think Verdugo would excel playing in Fenway.
I don’t think I have criticized Friedman, Roberts, or Mattingley. There are times that a player will aggravate me and I will offer them in a trade and sometimes I offer players that Mark likes in trades because he offers players I like in trades.
Just Joc!
😉
You aren’t the only one.
Hi Evan. Welcome aboard.
You will fit right in with the folks on LADT. They are very knowledgeable, have many opinions and data to back up those opinions.
I am one of those relics who does not subscribe to all of the new analytics as a fan. I understand that they are used by management personal to make all kinds of decisions, on-field and off-field, but I never use the ones I have to look up to see what they mean. As a fan I like what I can see, not infer. That is, my favorite OBP, RISP, with two-outs or two-strikes, WHIP, K/BB ratio, etc.
I have not panicked with this off-season as I fully believe there is a plan of which we are not aware. I also believe AF will not sell the farm for a couple of older stable horses. I have always been guilty of valuing prospects too much but I truly believe a home grown pitching staff is now within reach. For me, that is the secret to success and just add a piece now and then. This team has consistently grown younger and home grown during AF’s tenure. Now he has to bring a ring home for all Dodger fans to celebrate and to appease his detractors. He will.
Welcome, and, yes, it is nice to read good writing and intelligent opinions, even if there is good-natured disagreement.
It is my opinion that Friedman is in some sense misdirection. None of us knows for sure how much input he has into the big-money decisions, and that’s how the owners want it. I tend to blame the ownership for not closing on various free agents, not even bidding on others, but I can’t say for certain what role Friedman has in that. We do know that he was brought in by the owners to implement their plan, which plan has become a pretty clear one over the last few years.
The acquisitions which you mention above, from Anderson to Forsythe, were virtually all failures. Even so, I still blamed the owners for putting him in that bargain rack mode. Maybe I should blame him more for picking up Kazmir, who was clearly declining in his career and giving him three years., or four years to McCarthy, whom I liked as a pitcher, but who had a long history of injuries. Except for the one pretty good year that Anderson had, we didn’t get one significant thing out of that group. He might as well have saved even more money for the owners, as if that does any good for the fan base.
When you say “fickle fans,” I must disagree, because Dodgers fans have been remarkably loyal. They fill l the stadium with between 3.8 and 4 million fans a year, despite yearly ticket price increases. The owners negotiated an extremely lucrative TV deal (for them) which has resulted in millions of fans being unable to watch the games,; and the ownership has not done anything to try to fix it. I don[t think fans in one of the largest markets in the country, who pack the stadium, and who have to accept the fact that there are virtually no teams in MLB which have gone as long without a title, are fickle.
Friedman does what he is allowed to do by the owners. I think he’s done a fine job in keeping the roster supplied with young talent. I don’t know how much of that is his work,and how much that of the scouts and minor league directors. On free agent acquisitions, not very well at all, we either miss out, or we grab some second-tier guy, none of whom has worked out well. On picking up diamond in the rough players like Muncy, very well. On trades, not too well, I can scarcely think of a meaningful one at the major league level. On the bottom line, we have indeed had strong teams almost every year. but then again we do not win titles. Again ,I blame most of the failures there on the ownership. I continue to believe that had we just gotten Verlander in 2017, we would have two titles by now, but as usual, the ownership did not want to be saddled with the extra year of the contract. Keep making decisions like that, and we will never win a title; or what is maybe even worse, we will finally win one, and use that as an excuse to never try to win one again.
To me, this is going to really be a pivotal year. Either all this works, and we are really strong, and have a lot of great young talent going forward; or the talent level has been depleted,, through losing a player, and not picking up any top talent, as some teams do; there are no major free agents to add next year, we have little in trade chips, and more teams catch and pass us. According to numbers I have seen, the Dodgers made the most profits in MLB last year, so making even more profits by not negotiating any deals with top free agents, is not something that the fans are likely to be thrilled about, whoever is ultimately responsible for that.
So, under Friedman, the Dodgers have been to the playoffs 5 times and World Series 2 out of the last 3 years.
In that same time frame, the Nats have two seasons where there are 2 and 3 games over .500, get bounced from the playoffs in the first round twice. Then they lose their best player, build a team of rag tags and win it all.
So, now, Rizzo is a genius and Friedman is an idiot?
I dare say, that if all 30 MLB teams were without GM’s, Andrew Friedman’s phone would ring 30 times.
Evidently, many of you don’t remember the last time the Dodgers won the World Series. They didn’t outspend and out trade every team. They weren’t even supposed to be there and then they lost their MVP. They won when they were not supposed to.
Doesn’t it speak volumes that the Astros won with one ace, but couldn’t win with three?
It’s not the size of the dog in the fight. It’s the size of the fight in the dog!
With regard to your comment about dogs MT, I think that may be what we’re lacking.
We have a great collection of golden retrievers, labs, etc. but we’re just lacking that one pit bull with attitude.
I think you may be underestimating the competitive fight in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Gavin Lux, et al. Using your “pit bull” metaphor — bringing in a pit bull may negatively disrupt the kennel. Reportedly, the Dodgers clubhouse was the best it has been in many years; make certain that any additions do not take a step backwards.
I wasn’t actually referring to their competitive fight of which they have plenty. I just think maybe we need one “in your face guy” like a Gibby.
OK. By comparing current Dodgers to golden retrievers, and labs I took it that you thought they were more like laid back, friendly, lacking in aggressiveness (the way I view those breeds). I would love to have a Gibby type (not sure who that might be, or where he would fit on the roster), but I do believe you have to be careful in bringing on someone who immediately gets in the faces of current veterans and youngsters. I believe the Dodgers made a horrible mistake years ago when they traded for Hanley Ramirez and the effect he had in the clubhouse — perhaps a poor influence on Yasiel Puig.
But, they did bring in a big time free agent that year. And they had one of the great managers of all time.
According to FanGraphs the Dodgers lead the league in dead money at 40plus million. Just a few included in this figure Olivera, Bailey, Sierra, kazmir etc. what did Cole get per year.? I am not advocating we should have paid Cole because 1. He was not coming to the Dodgers and 2. I don’t think we were ever going to give him 300 million anyway. We are not willing to pay for the top free agent salaries. Our name is mentioned always because of due diligence but in reality we are not players for top free agents. If you question that you have to look at how many we have signed. Should we play that market is another question. This year does not appear to be a good year to jump in.
With 40 million dead money and the luxury tax line we only look toward mid-tier signings. You say AF says he has 12 elite talents he is looking at. Ok the season hasn’t started but he won’t sign any. Many believe we follow the tb model but I think it is as much atl with kasten being a chief player. They keep talking about a sustainable system. One built through the farm and I assume a conservative payroll. Kasten was known for that system in Atlanta where they were good every year with one World Series win.
I really can’t blame the ownership for pulling the plug on free agents when you look at all the dead money wasted on players who are anchors on the system. Although, it seems ownership just passes the financial mistakes onto the fans through ticket prices etc. if they can’t or won’t upgrade the talent at least they could lower the burden on their loyal 3.8 million plus fans.
I would prefer they not sign anybody as to wait until the best players are taken and throw money at somebody like pollock. Many said ryu wasn’t signed due to injury risks. That’s funny, when you see the kazmir, Anderson,McCarthy, pollock signings. Everybody who followed baseball knew they would be hurt. Pollock certainly doesn’t meet the elite talent but he does fit the injury history. Nothing wrong with signing a blue light special because some like muncy will work out. I love muncy I just continue to be baffled by the pollock signing. The pollock, Kelley signings seem a lot like McCourt. Don’t sign really quality players but overpay for mediocre and risky players.
I am fine with may, Gonsolin, and urias starting the season to see what we have. I hope urias has worked on conditioning because last I saw he was obviously not well conditioned. This rotation will not play in the World Series unless they can stay below the 150 innings mark. As far as Roberts mouthing this is the year of turnover. I will say it again he is a blather machine. He looks less in touch every time he opens his mouth.
Welcome Evan, I have been reading LADT for sometime, among other popular Dodgers’ sites, but rarely post. While I subscribe to the notion that quantifying positions is the best way to debunk false narratives that are mostly based on irrational beliefs, I am also fully aware that glorification of flawed players like Adam Dunn by the analytical community can lead to substandard results. On the opposite end of the spectrum I have also witnessed how the ineffective use of analytical resources, or lack thereof, can lead to the idealization of imperfect players like Ozzie Smith; who was a wizard with the glove but who would likely struggle to earn an everyday role in today’s game due to a glaring inefficient bat. Nevertheless, this is what makes forums such as LADT pleasant to read. The term groupthink definitely does not come to mind when reading this blog. There is a plethora of positions which are rich in thought provoking debatable postures. Ultimately, this is what makes LADT a different, yet, great forum.
Since this is a Dodger blog and in the spirit of adding my two cents regarding the Dodgers lack of free agent signings. Gerrit Cole would have been a great addition, a true difference maker, but as already stated he ultimately wanted to be a Yankee. Anthony Rendon did not want to play for the Dodgers and Stephen Strasburg chose to resign with the team who drafted him. From a front office perspective, there is not much Andrew Friedman et co. can do about that; however, I was encouraged when it was reported that the Dodgers remained engaged with Gerrit Cole up to the point the Yankees added a ninth year and the Dodgers were not given the opportunity to match.
The rumor mill has been buzzing with reports that the Dodgers are in on Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts. Personally, I do not believe the cost benefit of replacing Seager with Lindor merits the prospects we have to lose in the process. In fact, I believe Lindor is a bit overhyped. Lindor is the better defensive player who is capable of snagging a few bags; however, I believe a healthy Corey Seager might the better overall offensive shortstop. Unless Dodger brass knows something about Seager’s health that has yet to be disclosed, if Lindor is going to cost Lux or May, I can’t blame the front office for looking elsewhere. Mookie Betts on the other hand, is an elite all around player. Not as great as Mike Trout, but definitely a top 10 player in the game. I think the Dodgers and Red Sox match up well on paper. The Dodgers can take on payroll, have the players and the contracts to make this an amicable exchange. If an acquisition of Mookie Betts hinges on the Dodgers taking on David Price, I think that Dodgers could work this out as long as the Red Sox agree to take on AJ Pollock and Joe Kelly. A few contract dollars between teams may need to be exchanged in order to workout collective balance tax implications; otherwise, I believe the Dodgers best interest might be to wait until the trade deadline.
In short, the lack of activity can be frustrating for a fanbase that hungers World Series title, but I believe Friedman is the right man for the job. The worse that Friedman et co. could have done is overreact by overpaying for Ryu or Bumgarner after missing out on Cole. Same for Josh Donaldson after Rendon decided to join the Angels. Investing four years on a 34 year infielder is not a smart move.
Glad to have you onboard and look forward to reading your posts.
Excellent analysis.
I think Friedman runs the show and ownership does what he recommends. Any time you pursue a massive free agent contract like Cole, ownership will always be heavily involved. The trade for AGon with Boston and all the money the Dodgers took on was ownership driven. Kershaw’s contract, ownership driven. I don’t believe Friedman would do with a massive deal with Boston. Circumstances have changed. But they would probably take on contracts with a year or two left to get a player they want if it reduced the number of prospects going back.
I agree with DC on the analytics. Some of it is useful. Much of it is not. How much data is too much? Where are the analytics which show the failures of thinking analytics is some magical formula for predicting or evaluating success?
I agree with William, this is going to be a pivotal year. There is just something in the air. This certainly feels like we have arrived at a turning point. Maybe it’s the massive stadium improvement project and the All-Star game or the early exit from the playoffs. Or all the statements by Roberts that turnover will take place. Maybe it’s Friedman saying something is missing. Or the repeated suggestions that the Dodgers need a difference maker. Or the expectations of fans, analysts, the media that something is going to happen, needs to happen.
The Dodgers have a bunch of young players… all of whom have a great deal of room to grow.
I can see Bellinger, Seager, Verdugo, Smith, Lux, Buehler, May, Gonsolin, Urias, and others getting better… some maybe a lot better.
I can see Turner, Pederson, Pollock, Kershaw, and Muncy staying about where they are.
Can Kelly, Treinan, and Jansen rebound? Relievers do it all the time… up and down.
There is a lot of growth and improvement to be had from within.
A couple of years ago, the Nats wanted a closer, so they traded Felipe Vasquez for Mark Melancon. I would argue that criminal record aside, Vasquez was already better than Melancon.
I always look forward to players’ seasons who turn 28 during the year.
Thanks for all the kind words. I’m actually boarding a flight at the moments and will be out of pocket for several hours. Sorry about that Gents. I hope to be able to log in later today.
High Heat on MLB TV was proposing a Lindor and Clevinger trade for Verdugo, Downs, Gray, Lux and Ruiz. I would love to see Lindor in Dodger Blue but not for that price. That’s way too steep
Spot on! That is a trade dreamed-up by an Indians fan.
For the life of me I cannot understand why Friedman wants Lindor and/or Betts, if the rumors are true. Way too much player cost in a trade.
I can understand wanting Clevinger, if the rumors are true, with the though of you never have enough good pitching. But again too much player cost in a trade.
Besides Doc’s brain, the bullpen knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs.
It’s real simple:
1. You have never heard Friedman say he wants Lindor or Betts or Clevinger, for that matter. It’s just rumored.
2. AF would do well to keep his pulse on the Indiana and Red Sox inclinations and at least drive up the price… or stael them.
3. No way would AF trade Lindor and Clevinger for Verdugo, Downs, Gray, Lux and Ruiz. Maybe Downs, Ruiz, Jeter, Peters, and Pederson.
Mark
That’s still too much of a price tag.
Using the prospect list you talked about yesterday, I’d go Vargas (he’s way overvalued on that list), Cartaya (don’t need him because we have Smith/Ruiz), Downs, Carrillo for Clevinger only. And if I had to add more I’d add anyone from #13-19 on that list.
I’m open to adding pitching but only for the right price.
That’s a non-starter for the Indians. They have Lindor for two more years and they are are in competition for winning their division. If they happen to fall out of contention in July, then maybe they will deal. I would pay quite a bit for Lindor and Clevinger IF I could extend Lindor.
Hope not.
And why would the Indians want to trade one of its top starting pitchers who will only make a little over $4M in 2020? The Indians claim that they want to make the post season in 2020, so why trade Clevinger for prospects?
Norcaldodgerfan. Using some of Mark’s words, the Dodgers would be felony stupid to make that deal.
Al, you cherry picked Mark’s nicer words for describing a trade like that.
I would like to get away from second guessing Friedman and Roberts. Continuing to do so is akin to beating the dead horse. Been there, done that, got the sticker on the back of the camper.
I would love to hear what each player is doing this off season to get ready for 2020. Who are they working with? Where are they working out?
Welcome Evan, glad to have you aboard. But it’s hard to classify a run successful without a championship for such a storied franchise. Ask the team and AF if the goal is sustained competitiveness or a WS championship! As is I don’t think the pitching is good enough. There’s a lot of question marks. Urias, May, Gonsolin, Kelly, Trienen, Jansen. But we will know more by the trade deadline and what needs to happen
Off topic, but it is heartbreaking to see how far the once dominant USC football program has fallen!! So sad!
Traveler doesn’t get much exercise anymore.
Arenado said to want to be a Dodger and could opt out after 2021 and sign with Dodgers. Maybe CO would trade him now.
I would rather see the Dodgers acquire Kris Bryant for 3b / LF as Arenado’s offense away from Coors is just OK. The lack of Dodgers activity raises the question in my mind if they are waiting on the arbitrator’s decision on Bryants major league service grievance (thought to be issued before January 1).