What Box?

This article has 91 Comments

1. The Dodgers need to hold on to their young players remember we lost the World Series because the American League didn’t play fair game homegrown players are what we need to hold on to

2. Thanks for calling me out, Mark. It makes me feel special.

   In 2018 Puig OPS’d 820 with the Dodgers and 15 post season hits. In 2019 Verdugo OPS’d 817 with the Dodgers and had 0 post season hits. If you think the team was “Clearly Better”, that fine. I don’t and that’s also fine. Hardly a reason to call me dumb.

   I say something else that you probably think is dumb. WAR is a bad stat because it’s unreliable as are defensive stats like DRS and UZR. The thing that makes them unreliable is that official scorers have a say in what’s a hit or what’s an error. What should have been caught, and what shouldn’t have been caught. Outfield assists get a lot of value in defensive stats, but outfielders who guys won’t run on, get little benefit. Defensive metrics vary wildly from year to year, especially for outfielders, and especially more for corner outfielders because they have less opportunities. I can see this, but you claim I have no vision. If you compare Puig vs Verdugo’s OPS / Slug / ISO they are very close. Puig plays stupid and wild, but he has hit in the post season and we could have used that.

   Now to K-Bear. 9 games at AAA and you make an argument that he turned things around. That’s almost as small of a sample size as Pollock’s post season performance. But, you’re ready to ship Pollock off to the boneyard. That’s pretty irrational. But, I’m the one who says stupid things.

   Ruiz is starting to lose some of his prospect shine, even Geordi La Forge can see that. He’s starting to fall on the prospect lists and you close your eyes tight, failing to acknowledge what others are seeing. I called it early last year. I’ve only seen him play a couple of times at Rancho. He looks smooth behind the plate. I give him that. But, he puts that bat on the ball and it doesn’t go anywhere and he’s slow, so that kind of contact skills aren’t going to help him like it would help a guy like Dee Gordan. I could be wrong about him, but you can also be wrong about him. What I see in Smith is a guy that looked in control behind the dish catching guys with nasty stuff and some big egos. He looks like a captain on the defensive side. There is no comparison to me. Smith is the superior defensive catcher and he’s got more pop in his bat than K-Bear will ever have. I have the vision to see that you don’t need two starting catchers. One of them will play up to 30% of the time and the other will play 70%. I can see Smith is the 70% guy because of his defensive prowess.

   You say I hate Verdugo, I don’t. I say he’s one of your favorites, you say he isn’t. I see him for what he is. A solid, not great player. You think just about everyone of our prospects is “untouchable”. The remaining guys other GMs have little interest in trading their all-stars for. I love your spirit and enthusiasm, but the numbers just don’t work.

   I propose trading quality guys from depth. Downs because we have Lux and Seager, Gray because we have May, Urias, Bueller and Gonsolin. Ruiz because we have Smith, Wong and Cartaya. You propose trading Maeda and Stripling in the same deal to a team that doesn’t need pitching. I’m the dumb guy.

   I’m dumb because I think the FO should improve the team in the offseason and call it a failure if they don’t. I called the trade deadline a failure last year for not getting a closer type. Then Doc Fu&^ered up game five because he didn’t have a reliable pen. I’m dumb.

   And finally Pollock’s second half was better than Verdugo’s first half. But, Pollock had little to do with the Dodgers being better and Verdugo “Clearly” made the team better. I would like to see you draw a Venn Diagram to show how that works.

   1. “Geordi La Forge” made me chuckle.

3. Hope that shuts up the non-believers. That was a great read. Thanks for stating the truth about this team and organization.

4. I agree fully with what you say Mark. Yes, I wanted Cole or Strasberg. The price was ridiculous. Puig was a cancer. He was not coachable. When I heard he tore up the defense information, he had to go. Besides, Verdugo is better.

   There are too many good farm kids that are close to being ready. Yes, not all will make it, but many will. Two of the three of May, Urias and Gosolin are going to be very good. Gray may be the best of them. Besides all of them are controlled. This will allow us to sign Seager, Beuhler and Bellinger when the time comes. I think Turner has two more good years in him. Seager will definitely be better.

   We have two good young catchers in Smith and Ruiz. A good young second baseman. Just let that young talent develop.

   Sorry Bum, I am still not sure about left field. I just do not like players who are not complete players. If you are going to trade Pederson, this is the time.

   The bull pen needs some help.

   1. I tend to call a player incomplete if they are all defense no hit or all offense no glove/arm. Joc is neither. He gets 70% of the starts being a lefty so at worst he is 70% complete.

      He may be the poorest lefty hitter against lefties but not the only one that has deficiencies.

      1. When you move to Portland, you’ll have to get you some Portland Maverick gear. Have you ever read about them, ‘The Battling Bastards Of Baseball’. Netflix I think it is has the documentary video. In short, Bing Russell (Deputy Clem on Bonanza) moved to Portland when he retired, found that there was a defunct Class A franchise available cheap so he bought it. He was a minor league player before he got into acting. His son Kurt was vice president and right fielder… He ran it different than most other owners and they hated him for it. He had weekly tryouts and anyone was welcome. Jim Bouton was one of his players. His general Manager was a woman (by default). Team finished in the top three in the league every year. Finally they bought him out for ten times what he’d bought it for.

5. Everyone has their own opinions and thoughts on how the Dodgers did in the past, or how they will do in the future. Do I agree with them all? No. Do I disagree with them all? Of course not. Let us get in the Christmas or holiday spirit by commenting in a reasonable manner. I hope I will not get in trouble for this.

   1. You are on double-secret probation.
      😉

      1. Lol.

6. Oh, my favorite subject, boxes and box people. For years I did presentations, workshops and community outreach programs for cities, events, recreation departments, fairs, conventions etc. which included out of the box thinking. That evolved into divergent thinking, which looks at all sides of a problem or issue to find solutions. Those ideas can come from a remarkable number of sources, some even using concepts that were cast aside years ago. Disney Imagineering uses this approach. Politicians, who are locked into ideology do not which becomes self destructive thinking. The same thing can hurt a business or a baseball team.

   When analytics were introduced into MLB, it was just another form of box thinking. What box thinking really does is offer a comfort zone for baseball front offices. A GM doesn’t want to walk into the owner’s office and say we need player A for this many years and this many dollars. The owner may ask why and the GM can’t just say, it’s a gut thing. But analytics offers cover. It’s what the analytics say. Isn’t that how Jason Heyward got such a massive contract? Plus countless other bad deals.

   Andrew Friedman may be the most divergent thinker in baseball. Yes, the Dodgers use analytics, but they also use scouting and consider information from a variety of sources to help make a decision. He welcomes input and even encourages alternative thinking. Do the Dodgers make mistakes? Of course. There is always risk and to truly be divergent you must sometimes choose alternative paths.

   As a divergent thinker, Friedman is constantly evolving. Is Friedman afraid to trade prospects to get immediate help for the Dodgers, a familiar thought among some Dodgers fans? No. He has acquired several “difference makers”, including Machado, Darvish, Hill etc.

   He has avoided long term, high money free agent deals, which, more often than not go bad at some point. He has been cautious when dealing high end prospects like Bellinger, Seager, Buehler and at this point, Gavin Lux. Where would the Dodgers be now without those players? He has been criticized for not making deals for players like Cole Hamels by trading those players. But teams which have used that approach are struggling today. Yes, they won a World Series in some cases, but at what cost? How many teams used that approach and didn’t win the WS? More than have won. So, no guarantees. Even though everybody wants to win it all, they also want their team to be good every year. Sometimes that’s a fine line to walk.

   Listening to other GMs, baseball analysts and media people talking about the Dodgers at the winter meetings, LA is the envy of the baseball world with winning teams, player depth and a great minor league system. that produces MLB level talent. They are also unique because of their approach and much of that credit goes to Friedman.

   Great drafts, including 2016, signing an obviously injured college pitcher Buehler, who is now the ace of the staff, finding off the radar talent like Justin Turner (give Ned Colletti credit for that one), Chris Taylor and Max Muncy, re-signing your own players (Jansen, Turner, Kershaw and Hill).

   All this may not make everybody happy, but the Dodgers are an incredibly successful franchise, which will continue to win well into this next decade. They were willing to spend big on Cole and if the Yankees didn’t change course, no doubt, would have been a Dodger today.

   Going into 2020, the Dodgers are a very good team if they do nothing from this point on. But, I’m guessing that Friedman goes under the radar for a trade or maybe he makes a deal for Lindor, Clevinger, Betts or Bryant that doesn’t include Lux or May.

7. I thought for about a millisecond as to whether to respond to The Truth Hurts. I choose not. But it did get me to thinking. I write on this blog exactly how I would talk to friends sitting at a bar. Some I agree with, and some I do not. My three closest friends in the world are true baseball fans. One is a Dodgers fan, one is a Giants fan, and one is a Yankees fan. We go toe to toe every time we get together. Mark and I have disagreed on many things. I view it as a sign of respect when I feel comfortable to criticize his points and he has never been shy about coming right back at me. I consider Mark a friend and we have never met face to face, a situation we hope to remedy in the near future.

   There are very few people on this or any blog that I respect more than Dodgerrick, and he and I do not see eye to eye on many things Dodgers. But he is extremely articulate and supports his views like a great attorney. Even if we disagree as to what needs to be done to bring a championship team to LAD, I have never once questioned his love for the Dodgers.

   I feel the same for four gentlemen (Jeff, William, Eric, and Cassidy) that I have enjoyed reading and responding to. I do not agree with any of them on many of their views regarding the status of the team, but like Dodgerrick, my disagreement is all in how to make a championship team, not whether they were Dodger fans. Jeff asked if we could bury the hatchet and start over. Admittedly that bothered me because I never intended for it to evolve to that level. I told Jeff that as far as I was concerned there was no hatchet to bury. I enjoyed our dialogue and it was never meant to be personal from my point.

   If any of my responses have offended anyone, please know that it was not intentional. I will not apologize because the intent was not mean-spirited. I will refrain from any direct responses from anyone that has been offended. Just let me know. But I will not refrain from using what some say to write my articles. My last two articles were spawned from all of those who believe that AF and the owners do not want to win because they are not willing to spend stupid money. There was a comment that was made by someone who said on multiple occasions that the Yankees championship teams from 1996-2001 was bought. That was not true, and I wrote about those NYY teams and I included the pre-Moreno Angels and the 2010-2014 SF Giants, all built primarily from within and strategic trades (not blockbuster), strategic complimentary peripheral FA signings, and waiver wire additions. Also in response to all those who believe that the Dodgers will fail this year because they were not willing to spend $350MM for Gerrit Cole, I wrote yesterday’s article on how unsuccessful the 2015-2016 FA signings turned out. There is no direct correlation between spending and winning.

   Finally, I will say this in response to The Truth Hurts. There is something we can agree on. I have never said that anything that I have written was anything other than my opinion, I have never worked for the Dodgers or any other professional baseball organization, and nobody has anointed me Dodger Blog President. But I do find it ironic that you think I should change my name to Negative Nelly because I choose to defend a “lost cause” (your words). So you can call the Dodgers a “lost cause”, and I can state that (IN MY OPINION) the Dodgers can win it all even if they do not make any significant FA signings or blockbuster trades, and I am the one being negative. If being positive about the Dodgers even though they have not won a WS Championship for 31 (not 33) makes me a Negative Nelly, then I will proudly wear that handle.

8. Well said AC.

9. I guess my perspective on “staying in the box” is different.

   Mark, you seemingly claim that “box thinkers” want to maybe go out and change things up a little, make some trades, not count on the rosiest of predictions for every player, coach, and situation to end up as a boon for the Dodgers.

   Conversely, those that think “outside the box” want to just hold. Stay with the status quo, and just about every single prospect in the LA system is bound and destined for greatness. Therefore, the notion of ever trading any of them for someone who is already touching greatness is absurd.

   I think that you have it exactly backwards.

   Thinking and operating outside the box is making decisions to take a risk. Something outside the comfort zone.

   I am not sure that is in AF’s DNA.

   I read your posts all year last year in regards to the bullpen. Stay the course!! This is what you preached over and over, even though it never had a chance of getting better. The horses just are not there, and they weren’t last year. Staying the course is “in the box thinking”. Let’s not do anything cause it MAY not work. WTF?? OF course , when this is brought up the predictable straw man comes in with Vasquez and how that could have been a disaster. Maybe so, but relying on 20-20 hindsight is not much of a plan or argument. There were surely other options outside the worse catastrophe situation. Let’s face it, there are dozens of MLB pitchers that would be upgrades to many of the bullpen pieces that we had last year. Obviously, since Roberts was basically terrified of using most of them.

   How many “top prospects” can we possibly have? Mix those in with already MLB players we have and there are only so many roster spots and positions that need to be filled over the next 3-6 years.

   You can shout as loud as you want about AF paying out the most money in the last 5 years if that floats your boat but paying out money to Kazmir, Crawford, A-gon, Brian Wilsons, and a few minor league guys that were paid tens of millions as busts of the world is not an impressive measuring stick. I realize he didn’t make all those deals but they were still a part of the giant payroll outlays that you seem to push to make it seem that he spends freely.

   Outside of Greinke, not a single 100 million deal……ever. That is pretty standard pricing for upper mid players these days, let alone “elite” ones. Never. Once. Could they be busts? Maybe, but who know if any of the guys on AC’s list thrive in LA rather than flounder in whatever city they signed to. Look at a JT, Muncy, etc.

   The Dodgers do need a little “outside the box” thinking. My definition just differs from yours.

   Standing pat isn’t really a plan when that hasn’t been successful, and when it hasn’t been, a little change in philosophy is usually good medicine.

10. Great article by Andy McCollough in The Athletic about the Cheating Astros from Alex Wood’s standpoint.

    https://theathletic.com/1473951/2019/12/20/wed-heard-whispers-of-some-of-the-shady-stuff-alex-wood-opens-up-about-pitching-in-minute-maid-park-in-2017/

    I wonder if Alex would come back?

    On DodgerRick,

    Maybe I am wrong, but I think Rick has somewhat softened his views on AF, but I’ll let him speak for himself.

    1. Really good article. I was wondering the same thing about Wood. Apparently he is healthy, but would he be willing to take a minor league deal with spring training invite — makes the team with an incentive heavy contract.

    2. I read it early this AM. Very fun article, and very informative on Wood’s approach to Game 4. It is also fun to read the comments from Astros fans in that article.

       I wonder if Alex would come back?

       I still have my Wood jersey and would wear it again proudly. But he only wants to start, and there is really no spot for him with LAD. He needs to go to a team where he can get a pillow contract and reestablish himself as a worthy starting pitcher and jump back in to the FA market next year.

    3. Would you rather have Alex Wook or Tijuan Walker?

       1. I am an unapologetic Alex Wood fan, but I see no way for him to come back knowing he wants to start. As a Dodgers fan, if Taijuan Walker is willing to go to the bullpen I would rather have him. But if both want to be starters, I will pass and hope that Urias, May, and Gonsolin are as good as advertised.

          I would still like to get a proven top of the rotation starter, and other than Ryu, I do not see a clear path to getting one.

       2. I’d take both if they were willing to go to the pen.

       3. I would love to get Tijuan with the caveat that he would compete for a rotation spot and would go to the pen if that doesn’t work. If that works for him, I love the upside.

          I’m not as much in on Wood. He was really good when he could hit 93, but not so good sitting 89-90.

          1. As a fan of certain players, numbers just do not matter. I’d like Wood if he was throwing 86-87. It may not be rationale, but as a fan I do not have to be rationale about who my favorite players are. I think he would be great in the bullpen. He just does not want to go there…yet.

11. Mark can´t let the fans on this site say anything negative about Friedman or Roberts ( like many on this blog I know what Friedman is doing and I have agreed with him from day one ) but everyone that post on this site has their own ideas and like Mark many of us disagree with their thinking, I just think it is do to a lack of baseball knowledge and a total lack of what the Dodgers are doing, but whatever their reasons, it´s their reasons and their beliefs. They should not be made fun of or called stupid, dumb, sick, out of touch with reality, or are suffering from mental illness. Mark enjoys the name calling, it fits him. Thankfully we have AC, DC, and 2demeter2.

    1. You can say whatever you want that is negative about AF, Doc or Me… as long as you can back it up with an argument that is somewhat logical and cogent. If it’s just a baseless accusation, I will call you out.

       1. You call people out even if they make a reasonable argument.

          1. Chapter and Verse!

       2. Mark, I have never said anything negative about Friedman, my opinion about Roberts has not changed, good with the FO and players, a poor game day manager. I have never made a baseless accusation on this blog and I don´t use meaningless stats to try and back up my opinion.

          1. I have never thought otherwise…

             1. You are one of the most knowledgeable commenters in my book, baseball1439.

       3. I was part of a small minority here that defended Roberts in 2018. I also defended Mattingly when his decisions play or not play a player were overly criticized when there was no way of knowing if a player was hurt or in the doghouse. Was it smart to be critical of Roberts in 2018 and dumb to do so in 2019?

12. Nothing like an early morning MT rant! I love it. I think we all love the Dodgers and it’s fun and informative to discuss all things Dodgers with everyone. AC I greatly respect your opinions and am never offended when you and Mark disagree with me. I think AF has done a remarkable job and he went hard after Cole which was the right move but I think Cole was a Yankee the whole way thru. I just don’t see this team as is good enough to win a WS. Starting pitching is my biggest concern. I love Kersh. He’s my all time favorite player and he’s an even better person. But I just think at this point in his career and given his post season history he just can’t be our #2 playoff pitcher. He’s much more likely to lose 2 than win 2 in a series. And as much as I like Urias and May and their potential I think it’s overly optimistic to think next year they’re gonna be good enough to be your playoff 2 and 3. I think getting a guy like Clevinger with his potential as an ace next year gives us a much better shot. I’m not including Lux but I think we can put together a package together with all our prospect depth to get a deal done. I think guys like Turner, Kersh and Jansen are determined to win next year. And so am I

    1. Clevinger available seems too good to be true. Why would Indians trade a pitcher with “potential as an ace next year” when he is cost controlled for several seasons, and only making around $4M? Perhaps because” the team is said to have put a “crazy high” asking price on the soon-to-be 29-year-old.” (MLBTR) Are Indians concerned about his back injury in early 2019 season?

       1. I wonder if they want to be competitive every year with a smaller payroll and will trade a guy that is a current stud for several future studs when the current stud has his highest value? I have no idea, just tossing out one possibility.

    2. When the Astros won in 2017 (cheating bastards aside), their rotation was:
       1. Keuchel
       2. Morton
       3. Fiers
       4. Peacock
       5. McCullers

       Then they got Verlander at the deadline who turned into Superman from Clark Kent. Then Peacock and McCullers went to the pen.

       I would argue that the 2020 version of Walker Buehler is equivalent to Justin Verlander and that Urias, Kershaw, Maeda, May, Gonsolin, and Spripling are better than Houston’s 2017 starting staff.

13. May I digress? Reports that Indians have asked teams for their respective BAFO (best and final offer) for Lindor so they can evaluate over the weekend. If you were head of baseball operations for Dodgers what would be your BAFO?
    Mine (assuming the Seager is open to playing elsewhere on the infield): Alex Verdugo, Chris Taylor, Cristian Santana, and Jacob Amaya. Would take some other roster moves by Dodgers to balance the roster, but that is another topic to be discussed.

    1. My best offer is:

       Pederson
       CT3 or Kike (their choice)
       Miguel Vargas
       Devin Mann
       Conner Wong
       Dennis Santana

       1. That is a very strong offer, but without a shortstop prospect! If I am the Indians I would have to seriously consider that offer, especially if I have a shortstop in the minors who I believe will be ready by 2021; 2022 at the latest. And, I take CT3 over Hernandez.

    2. I would do SoCalBum’s trade.

       1. According to baseball trade value it is a spot on equal trade

14. Eric, we do not have to cross swords anymore on Tyler Clippard. He just signed with the Twins.

    1. Tyler Clippard’s ERA going back:

       2019: 2.90
       2018: 3.67
       2017: 4.77
       2016: 3.57
       2015:2.92
       2014:2.18

       He is up and down, on and off and at 35 years old, he is a big risk.

       1. For $2.75M and 2.7 WAR over last two seasons, that is very small risk, potential high reward for Twins

          1. SoCalBum

             You are right. 2.75 million 1 year contract. I would have beat that offer in a heartbeat. I can’t believe that is only what it cost to get him.

             1. with what is being paid in this market I was shocked

       2. Mark, you need to move away from ERA stats, some of that stat depends on the pitcher who follows the previous pitcher.

    2. Yep I saw that. Coming into the off season I had a list of 7 targets, all pitchers because I believe in our current offense. The list grew temporarily to 8 targets I admit when I heard Hader was available, but I realized he would cost way too much in a trade.

       Among the 7 targets, Tyler Clippard was ranked number 7 on my list.

       Obviously I wanted the Dodgers to at least try for Cole and Strasburg.

       The other 5 are:
       Will Harris only costs money. 7th inning guy, who could be skipped when the starter goes 7 strong innings.

       Ken Giles 1 year control shouldn’t cost much in a trade.

       Seth Lugo 3 year control could be pricey in a trade.

       Aaron Bummer 5 year control will be pricey in a trade.

       Tyler Clippard only costs money.

       I fear trades because I don’t know which Dodger players are going to be included in trades. So looking at my list and considering I believe in our current offense, can you now see why I was CONSIDERING Clippard. By the way look at his stats closely, he’s not a bad option.

       If Friedman can’t get any of those on my list I would rather him stand pat. Although I would like Friedman to upgrade the starting rotation with 1 acquisition if possible.

       My final opinion on the bullpen is to add Harris and trade for Giles. Lugo and Bummer will cost too much in trades.

       1. Oh yea I forgot to mention that I believe the cost in trades, at least for pitchers, has gone up drastically after all of the insane money contracts given out to pitchers. So therefore the cost for Lugo and Bummer will be ridiculous. That’s why I am settling on Harris and Giles.

       2. Tyler Clippard signed a one year $2.75MM deal with the Twins. Harris is a much better gamble than Clippard, but if he wants three years like Will Smith I doubt that AF would consider it. I would have no objection to Will Harris as a 7th inning reliever. He is much better than the Dylan Floro/JT Chargois/Casey Sadler/Josh Sborz options.

          I do not know what a fair price for a one year rental for a reliever that crashed and burned in his one season’s playoff experience. He pitched in 7 games, and allowed runs in 6 of them. In 7.2 IP he allowed 10 runs. He inherited three runners and two scored. He is a closer, but maybe better suited for setup. IMO, it is safe to say that the Dodgers will make the playoffs, and need a legit late inning reliever for the playoffs. Is Giles that guy? Except for his Houston playoff meltdown, Giles has been very good at both Philadelphia and Toronto. At the right price (trade-wise) he is worth the gamble. He still throws hard.

          Harris and Giles would be an improvement over many currently considered for the 26 man.

          Bummer and Lugo would cost way too much to pull from ChiSox and NYM respectively. But I would like both.

          1. Always Compete

             I agree with you about Giles possibly being better as the set up guy. I’m hoping Treinen bounces back and becomes our closer.

             Treinen 9th
             Giles 8th
             Harris 7th.

15. Maybe today is the day the Dodgers do something that nobody has espoused. I remember being in a Starbucks on a Friday last December 21 writing an article for LADT when I got the notification of the Farmer trade. Well it is the Friday before Christmas again today!?!? In 2017, a week earlier (12/16) was the Kemp/AGon trade. I do not expect any of the discussed trades to hit today, but nobody knew beforehand about either the Kemp/AGon trade or the Farmer trade.

    1. Good day for Dodgers to announce they have re-signed Hyun-Jin Ryu

16. Oh… and on Pollock’s second half:

    It was nice. .288 BA/.348 OB%/.885 OPS

    It was 58 games!

    Verdugo only played 20 games the second half and he battled injury the first half, but in 86 games and a lot more AB’s than AJ here is his line: .303 BA/.350 OB%/.839 OPS.

    In 343 AB’s, Alex put up a 3.1 WAR.

    In 308 AB’s, AJ put up a 0.2 WAR.

    If you don’t think WAR is a thing, well join the Flat Earth Society while you are at it.

    TOP 10
    1. Bellinger 9.0
    2. Bregman 8.4
    3. Trout 8.3
    4. Semien 8.1
    5. Verlander & Minor 7.8
    7. Lynn 7.6
    8. de Grom 7.3
    9. Yelich 7.3
    10. Marte & Cole 6.9

    Despite missing 1/3 of the season, Rookie Alex Verdugo was 112th in WAR.

    Pollock was at the bottom.

    No stat is perfect and dWAR is less so, but if I could only look at one stat to evaluate a player, it would be WAR and I think just about any baseball person would agree.

    So, maybe AJ will do great next year, but he sucked in 2019. You can’t put lipstick on a pig!

    And I have criticized AF’s acquisitions of Pollock and Kelly… although both could prove to be valuable next year.

    1. Please Santa, leave AJ Pollock under another teams Christmas tree next Wednesday

17. I heard that Kemp may be signing with Miami.

    Was that Matt Kemp?

    Or Fatt Kemp?

    1. Ouch! I thought u liked Kemp!

       1. I did, but he is fat.

    2. Fatt Kemp? Did you just get back from a rally?

18. I’ve almost always directed my criticisms against the owners, not Friedman, because I think that he is just doing what he is constrained to do by them. That is not to say that he doesn’t bear some responsibility, though. The offseason is surely not over. But after saying at the end of last season that everyone was very disappointed at the result, and that we were missing something, he has done almost nothing. He did pick up a reliever who was very good a few years ago, maybe he will resdiscover that form. He did not pick up one free agent, and a number of excuses are being offered, and still are, as more free agents sign with other teams. He has not made a trade, and more rationales are being made for that. And so now it looks like, as with recent years, we are going to go into the season with the same people, and depend on the rising ones getting better, and the declining ones getting better.

    Now, if Mark is right and that we have a wealth of young talent presumably better than the other teams, there is good reason for hope ahead. I am not a keen evaluator of minor league talent; I do know that other clubs have fine young players, too. I’m looking at all the young talent the Yankees have, from Judge to Torres and Sanchez and some other ones. Then I look at the fact that they picked up perhaps the best pitcher in baseball. And I am thinking that they will have a better team than the Dodgers this. year. Of course, that’s only one team, but to win a title you have to beat the best. I don’t think that winning another division is going to thrill too many fans at this point, more is expected.

    Maybe I have underrated the talent on hand here. I know that it is good talent, but I am not thrilled with players like Pederson, Hernandez, and most of the Dodgers bullpen. Nor am I convinced that Urias and May will blossom into great pitchers this year, or that Maeda will somehow have a strong entire season. And I would be surprised if Turner doesn’t spend half the season on the disabled list. I could make a case that the Dodgers will actually decline this year, to at least some extent, as Kershaw gets a bit worse, Turner has more injuries, the bullpen struggles. Maybe it won’t show up in the regular season, but I am expecting less wins. Of course that is easy to say, as 106 wins is a great record. But I could see us with 95 or less. Remember that we barely avoided the wild card two years ago, with 95 or so wins. SD and AZ are getting better.

    What we are doing is making sure that we don’t go over the luxury tax, and finding ways to avoid winning bidding for top free agents. We don’t have much to offer in trade, because most of our regulars are reclamations or versatile journeymen, so all we have is young talent, and we hold onto that. And then we act as if we are being really smart, while the others franchises foolishly go after free agents or try to make trades. Well, we may be smarter than most of them, but not all. And if our younger players do not blossom as expected, we will find a free agent market next year virtually devoid of great players, and we will have even less to offer in trade, if May or Lux do not look like immediate stars.

    What the Dodgers do, is try to make a virtue of what to them is economic necessity. I would want an ownership which wants very much to win a title, and will spend accordingly; which allows the front office to take a few monetary risks, go big at times, rather than play it safe, protect the division titles and the season attendance, and then go on to the next season. But we don’t have that kind of ownership.

    Finally, the fact that we have gone after middling free agents, and almost always found them doing not much at all for us, further emphasizes the relative frugality of our approach. Because it’s not that the ownership thinks that the entire FA mode is wrong, it is just that they want to shop at the FA secondhand bin, and this almost always results in wasted contracts and money, but they can sell it to the fan base. “Look who we just acquired!” I’d rather that they issued a statement that they don’t like going after free agents and will never do so, rather than keep fishing for second- or third-tier ones and acting like they did something great by going after the lesser models. I think that in some sense we are being scammed, but as long as they win divisions, they’ll make tons of money with their approach. I would like the Dodgers to be the most successful franchise in baseball. Is that too high an expectation? Well, we were close to it in the late ’40’s and ’50’s; we were from around ’62-’66. It can be done, this is a very big city and we have a lot of money. But we ended up with owners who see the Dodgers more like an image to be marketed, and made billions from, than as a franchise which could be the best in baseball in terms of on-field success.

19. If Ryu won’t sign for $40 Million/2 years… PASS!

    If Donaldson won’t sign for $75 Million/3 years… HARD PASS.

    Let’s ride!

    1. Oh Poncho! Oh Cisco! Let’s ride!

20. Ok, if you want to make an offer on Lindor, it has to better than what is proposed. That means Ruiz, Gray, and a couple of other good prospects. You’re either serious or you’re not and the Indians may not go for that deal.

    1. Then I guess I am not serious. 😉

    2. I would not include Gray in any trade.

21. WAR is a thing, eh? Which WAR is a thing? If WAR was accurate, wouldn’t both of these WAR lists yield the same results? This is just one other example after my previous examples that show that it is NOT an reliable statistic. OPS, Ave, Slg are all the same on each site, yet WAR is different. Furthermore, any team that has an analytics department uses their own version of WAR, not the one’s listed below from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. There’s just too much qualitative influence on WAR for it to be an accurate statistic. You can low brow mock me with some flat earth reference, and that might get a rise out of some on this site. But, it is hardly a rational argument. Even Mr. Magoo can see that.

    Bellinger 9.0
    Bregman 8.4
    Trout 8.3
    Semien 8.2
    deGrom 8.0
    Verlander 7.9
    Minor 7.7
    Lynn 7.7
    Yelich 7.1
    Marte 6.9

    Mike Trout 8.6
    Alex Bregman 8.5
    Christian Yelich 7.8
    Cody Bellinger 7.8
    Jacob deGrom 7.6
    Marcus Semien 7.6
    Gerrit Cole 7.3
    Ketel Marte 7.1
    Anthony Rendon 7.0
    Xander Bogaerts 6.8

    1. So, they differ a little….

       Was AJ Pollock there in either one?

       If you look at the underlying criteria, there are differences in the way WAR is figured. I typically stick with BR, but Fangraphs has some good points too. The biggest difference is dWAR.

       In either one, Pollock sucks!

       1. I’d be willing to bet that Pollock’s dWAR improves next year. McCallen 15?

          dWAR is the part of WAR that makes it unreliable. It’s funny how Pollock sucks defensively after one bad year of dWAR or DRS after being very good to great his whole career. Yet, Casty has 1 bad year after several crappy years and he’s gonna get better. And I’m the flat earth guy.

          1. Pollock looked like an absolute stiff in the field with the weakest arm of the outfield too. I don’t need defensive analytics to tell me that. He looks like a guy who’s body is deteriorating quickly. His bat didn’t justify the defense or the contract.

             1. Just my opinion, but I think the arm looked worse because he had a plate removed from his elbow on his throwing arm. He also had a groin injury. I think it’s logical to expect improvement next year. Or, maybe he’s just made of glass. AF thought that he wasn’t going to keep getting injured based on his injury history. Maybe he’s just a dumb*$$ same as me.

22. Well, Mark, yah that wouldn’t be a serious offer. Stepping out of the box for a moment, we should look at it from Cleveland’s perspective. Lindor is probably one of the best five or six players in baseball, according to most MLB analysts, players, GMs and former GMs. He’s a difference maker, the face of the franchise and has two years left before free agency. So if you were the Indians GM, would make that proposed deal? If he did that, I’m guessing he gets crushed by fans and media. Think tar and feathers. From a Dodgers perspective, that would be a great trade, something like swapping swamp land for a lush beach resort. The new owners of the Swamp can only hope that somebody discovers oil on the property in the future. And worse yet, the most talented piece when the trade is made, Joc Pederson, will walk away in a year.

23. Longenhagen chat:

    12:39 Luis Rodriguez from the Dodgers seems very intriguing from the J2 reports. Big believer in the offensive potential?
    Eric A Longenhagen Yup, we had him ranked 3rd in the class:

    You guys have a 40 future hit tool on Oneil Cruz. Is that generally seen as enough to tap into at least some his 80 raw power at the big league level? Or will he simply not hit enough to maintain a regular role so his power won’t really matter.

    Eric A Longenhagen I think it’ll be enough, I think he’s going to be a monster

    1:32 What is the ceiling for Gavin Lux and Dustin May?

    Eric A Longenhagen all stars

    1:32 Is Dodgers 3B Miguel Vargas on the way up for you? He looked to really hold his own at High-A as a 19 year old.

    Eric A Longenhagen like, don’t love. give me Cartaya, De Jesus first.

24. TBLA is posting a rumor for Betts. The guy is saying names discussed in Betts deal include Jeter Downs, Josiah Gray and Michael Busch. Supposedly the Dodgers are waiting to if The Indians accept their Lindor proposal first

    1. I believe you need to take chances to get that IT factor difference maker, and I think Mookie Betts can be that guy. But it would be very hard to lose Downs and Gray for a rental if AF and the ownership group are not willing to pay Mike Trout type $$$ for Betts.

       I believe Lindor would flourish in LA. He has that magnetic personality that will make him a star in a town of stars. I am wondering what their Lindor offer might be. They have been adamant that Lux is not going anywhere. For the life of me, I cannot understand why the Indians are making Lindor available without a significant overpay. After trading Kluber, they no longer need the financial help. They were at $150MM 40 Man AAV two years ago, and are at less than $100MM this year. Oh well, wait and see.

       1. Could we make a big effort to sign Betts to a longer term deal? I I know that most stars want to play out their free agency, and get a lot of bids, but if we were prepared to pay so much for Cole, could we not offer a large but lesser amount for Betts? He’s got to play somewhere, and it’s unlikely to be the Yankees, not the Red Sox, so why not here?

          1. There are three issues at work here:

             1. Betts has said he wants to test free agency and he is not interested in an extension (so there is that);
             2. His agent will want him to go to free agency in order to maximize his commission; and
             3. The MLBPA does not like players signing extensions (although they can’t stop them) because it drives up salaries.

             Three big hurdles.

    2. Do you happen to know if that deal included taking back Price’s contract or was for just Mookie?

       1. Doesn’t say and remember it’s a rumor so who knows what’s what.

25. I have been critical of the Dodgers’ management when Andrew Friedman took over primarily because I distrust over-reliance on data analysis to run a baseball team. Data is data – all information is useful, but the idea that guys that have played or scouted baseball for decades have nothing of value to add and that only computer analysis of performance is a valid way of making baseball decisions is not only wrong-headed in my view, it runs the risk of ruining baseball.

    All of the data driven platoons, shifts, over-reliance on relief pitchers, 3 true outcome hitters etc. run the risk of making the game unwatchable. And I have seen this kind of thinking affect the way that the Dodgers are run.

    I have never disagreed with the Dodgers’ vision of having a team primarily sustainable from within. I am very happy to see the improvements in player development. The Dodgers received contributions from so many minor leaguers – I have co-workers who are fans of other teams who complain that it’s unfair that the Dodgers have essentially 2 25 man rosters of players. The money spent on scouting, player development, etc have been a huge part of the Dodgers’ recent success.

    I have been critical of the kind of thinking that leads to signing the old and infirm and then calling it “depth”. If you can’t play, you can’t be depth. If I never see another Brandon McCarthy or Scott Kazmir type on the Dodgers’ roster, it would be fine by me.

    I am very impressed to see the team clean up the clubhouse. Getting rid of uncoachables, malcontents, and disciplinary problems has been a reason that the team is more cohesive and seems to play better together.

    I have been critical of the fact that the Dodgers haven’t signed a big league free agent from outside of the organization who has cost more than $25 MM over the life of contract other than AJ Pollock. I agree that spending money doesn’t guarantee success, but you obtain MLB players either via trade or free agency – the latter only costs $$, where the former costs players and prospects.

    Historically, the Dodgers have filled in from outside of the organization where needed to fill gaps – they appear much less likely to do that now than in the past. I agree that obtaining non-elite players is not going to help the team much this year – but they have failed to obtain any new elite talent this off-season (thus far anyway). It’s all very well to say that it takes 2 to reach an agreement, but the bottom line is result oriented. Other teams have acquired elite talent – the Dodgers have not. Will this affect the season’s outcome? Maybe – I am concerned that it will. I truly believe that the Dodgers need a difference maker. If the season started today, they will be without last year’s best pitcher (Ryu) and will have to make up the innings from untested youngsters who will not last the whole season because they haven’t been pushed to pitch enough innings yet.

    The idea that fans have that their teams will improve just because that is the desired outcome is a form of magical thinking. Thinking it is or will be so does not make it so.

    There is too much of this kind of thinking – all Dodger prospects will be All Stars and are untouchable. Oddly, Friedman doesn’t believe this himself – he has been 90% right when trading prospects for players and has generally held onto the best. There aren’t 19 untouchable prospects – there are probably no more than 3 or 4.

    So – there has to be a plan – and the Dodgers will never disclose it. But if the plan is to stand pat, I will be understandably critical.

    To those who claim that there is no connection between spending and winning, I say poppycock. 5 of the top 10 teams in payroll made the playoffs (NYY – #2, LAD – #4, StL – #6, Wash – #7, Hou – #8). This includes 3 of the 4 teams who won over 100 games. On the other end, the bottom 5 were Tam – #30, Mia- #29, Bal – #28, Pit, #27, Chisox, #26. All of the worst teams in baseball were among the lowest spenders. So there is a connection between smart spending of large sums of $$ and winning baseball.

    Finally, our host spent all of last season telling us that Wild Man Kelly would be a real difference maker last year and crowing that the Dodgers made a smart move to sign him, contrary to what he is saying now.

    * 12/14/18 “What can we expect from Joe Kelly? Until recently Joe Kelly was consistently inconsistent. He walked too many and struck out too few… but man-o-man… his stuff is fast, filthy and furious. He couldn’t start and couldn’t close. I am betting that Honeycutt, Prior and the Dodgers Brass see something great that they believe they can invoke in JK. Andrew Friedman throws around nickels like they are manhole covers when we are talking relievers, so why is Joe Kelly any different? Because he IS different! 100 MPH different with movement.

    Maybe Kenley teaches him the cutter. I guarantee that Friedman did not give him $25 million for smoke and mirrors. Henceforth, I shall never refer to him as Joe Kelly, just like I never call Striker Buehler by his real name. From this day forward, he is Machine Gun Kelly. If you don’t know who that was… look it up HERE… and I am not talking about some silly rapper. Machine Gun Kelly will take hitters hostage and humiliate them if they don’t pay his ranson. The real Machine Gun Kelly was not a good guy, and in our climate of political correctness, I am sure some will oppose that name, but a reliever that throws 100+ with filthy stuff has to be called Machine Gun.”

    * 2/4/19″I have been called the Great Optimist for many reasons, but recently because I have called Joe Kelly a great upgrade. In the Skeptic’s House, they wonder which Joe will show, and when….. That’s a fair question because Joe Kelly has certainly had an up and down career which includes the latest chapter where he was light’s out in the 2018 World Series.”

    *12/16/18 “What precipitated this post is some fans are excited to see Joe “Machine Gun” Kelly become a Dodger, while others feel like his stats only warrant a yawn. Joe Kelly has always had a very powerful gun – it’s like a machine. His career has somewhat paralleled Nathan Eovaldi in that he has always thrown 100+ MPH but has never been a big strikeout pitcher. He has also had a high walk rate per 9 innings. Kelley has averaged 3.7 BB/9 while Eovaldi was about the same… until he wasn’t….
    The naysayers will say “but he didn’t.” That’s where you analyze and see what he did different and see if you can fix it. In the playoffs he pitched 11.1 Innings, allowed 1 ER and walked ZERO. We know he can do it, because we have seen him do it. He just needs to harness his talent consistently. I’m betting that the Dodger Brass and Coaches believe they can help him reach that potential. Analytics of repeating his delivery and release points may hold the solution to his inconsistency.”

    So now Mark’s off of the Wild Man Kelly bandwagon?

    1. Let me amend my statement that spending does not correlate to winning. To point out all of the non-spending teams that will not win is not the same as saying that spending connotes to winning. I will agree that non-spending teams will not win, but being the biggest spender does not guarantee success either. Two of the three top spenders last year did not make the playoffs (Red Sox and Cubs), while the third (NYY) was ousted in the ALCS. Five of the top ten spending teams did not even make the playoffs. So while a team does need to spend for elite talent, they do not need to exceed the CBT threshold to have a WS team. Outside of Boston in 2018, the WS champion did not exceed the CBT threshold. Washington was close last year, but they did not go past. How much past the CBT threshold must the Dodgers go before some will say they have spent a sufficient amount now? I would have loved Gerrit Cole pitching for LAD on opening day, but not at $325MM+++.

       https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/12/18/apnewsbreak-red-sox-yanks-cubs-sent-2019-luxury-tax-bills/40851895/

    2. No, he will be the comeback player of the year.

       … or not!

26. Who says No?

    Cubs get:
    Knebel from Milwakee
    Ruiz from LAD

    Brewers get:
    Contreras from CHC
    Gonsolin from LAD
    Maeda from LAD

    Dodgers get:
    Hader from MIL
    Bryant from CHC

    Trade Simulator says :
    This appears to be a fair trade proposal for each team. Now post it to our Trade Board to see what other users think of it.

    1. A Dodger lineup regular would no longer be when Bryant plays. Would there be another trade?

       That trade would make the dodgers better.

    2. Maybe in PlayStation……

    3. I think you’ve just proven that the trade simulator is extremely flawed.
       Brewers would probably do the trade
       Dodgers would definitely do the trade
       I can’t believe that the Cubs would even consider the trade.
       Bryant and Contreras have a lifetime combined WAR of about 35 and the Cubs are exchanging that for a promising catcher who has not yet appeared in an MLB game and a pitcher coming off TJ surgery with a lifetime WAR of 4.

       Just my opinion – others may think it works for everyone

    4. Cubs say no! Give up Contreas and Bryant to get Knebel and Ruiz? I find it difficult to believe that trade simulator has that as a fair return to Cubs considering Knebel is coming off injury, and Ruiz is not ready to play at the major league level. I have read that Cubs want either a good centerfielder so they can move Happ to second base, or a good second baseman.

27. Fun fact of the day: Tony Gwynn faced Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux a total of 323 times, and he struck out a total of 3 times

    1. Just an amazing hitter,

       1. Verdugo like

          1. Ruiz-esque!

28. “Miracles come in moments. Be ready and willing.” – Wayne Dyer

    1. Do you read his books?

       1. I have them all

Comments are closed.