Earlier in the week, I read an article from Dodgers Nation on the perceived struggles the Dodgers seem to have with signing elite free agents. There is no real answer, but a lot of potential scenarios.
And then there was a comment during the week, “If the Dodgers do nothing much at all, is that good, are we glad that they chose not to try to improve the team, while many other clubs did?” First I would take exception that the Dodger organization chose not to improve the team. They made a very credible offer to Gerrit Cole what was turned down. As it turns out on an AAV basis, the Dodgers offer was better than NYY who offered one more year. If the Dodgers had increased their offer, there is no credible source that indicates the Dodgers would have been successful. It is just as likely that Cole told his agent once NYY gets to the highest contract in total dollars and AAV for any pitcher from NYY, accept it. He is a lifelong NYY fan.
There is nothing a team can do when the player says they do not want to play for the Dodgers due to their Hollywood Lifestyle. The only Dodger I remember living anything closely resembling a Hollywood Lifestyle would have been Yasiel Puig, and he is no longer a Dodger. So I have no idea who Rendon was referring to.
So the lack of signing either Cole or Rendon (their choice) is tantamount to “not trying to improve”. Certainly other teams did improve. NYY did improve. LAA did improve. And the Reds improved with Wade Miley. Since the Dodgers were not able to get Cole or Rendon to sign, should the Dodgers have signed Wade Miley? That is the problem when you go “big game hunting”. You may come back empty
But what does that actually mean? The last FA class that resembles the current group may have been the 2015-2016 FA group. That group certainly had stars, and commanded large contracts in both years and dollars. How did turn out?
This off season is beginning to look eerily a lot like the 2015-2016 off season. Remember that was the year that the top 15 FA were:
- David Price – 7 year $217MM
- Jason Heyward – 8 year $184MM
- Zack Greinke – 6 year $206.5MM
- Justin Upton – 6 year $132MM
- Chris Davis – 7 year $161MM
- Yoenis Cespedes – 4 year $110MM
- Jordan Zimmermann – 5 years $110MM
- Johnny Cueto – 6 years $130MM
- Alex Gordon – 4 years $72MM
- Ian Desmond – 5 years $70MM
- Jeff Samardzija – 5 years $90MM
- Mike Leake – 5 years $80MM
- Wei-Yin Chen – 5 years $80MM
- Kenta Maeda – 8 years $24MM plus bonus incentives (up to $100MM)
- Matt Wieters – Accepted QO of $15.8MM
Justin Upton opted out of his contract after 2017 and signed a 5 year $106MM with LAA. Yoenis Cespedes opted out after 2016 and re-signed with NYM a 4 year $110MM contract, which has since been restructured.
Of that group, which one has actually panned out and justified their contract? Below are two charts; one for pitchers and one for position players. These charts compare the contract cost to the player’s value over the last four years based on fWAR (Fangraphs).
Player 4 year Contract Paid 4 Year Value 4 Year Gain (Loss)
PITCHERS
David Price $124.00MM $85.00MM ($39.00MM)
Zack Greinke $137.68MM $123.50MM ($14.18MM)
Jordan Zimmermann $88.00MM $39.10MM ($48.90MM)
Johnny Cueto $86.67MM $49.90MM ($36.77MM)
Jeff Samardzija $72.00MM $58.60MM ($13.40MM)
Mike Leake $64.00MM $68.80MM $4.80MM
Wei-Yin Chen $64.00MM $17.30MM ($46.70MM)
Kenta Maeda $34.35MM $77.00MM $42.65MM
Player 4 year Contract Paid 4 Year Value 4 Year Gain (Loss)
PLAYERS
Jason Heyward $92.00MM $48.10MM ($43.90MM)
Justin Upton $88.00MM $79.30MM ($8.70MM)
Chris Davis $92.00MM ($12.90MM) ($104.90MM)
Yoenis Cespedes $110.00MM $50.30MM ($59.70MM)
Alex Gordon $72.00MM $26.30MM ($45.70MM)
Ian Desmond $56.00MM $14.00MM ($42.00MM)
Matt Wieters $15.80MM $9.10MM ($6.70MM)
There are exactly two pitchers and no position players who have “earned” their contract. Of the two pitchers only one has overwhelmingly “earned” his contract, and surprising to many out there that was an AF contract for Kenta Maeda. Mike Leake has also thus far earned his contract cost, although to a much lesser degree.
I know many of you do not like to think of MLB as a business, but it is a business nonetheless that has to justify and support their payroll costs. If you want fantasy baseball, join a fantasy league.
I also reviewed the number of All Star games each of the 15 made in the last four years. Of the 15, only 6 were All Stars, and of that 6, only one was a multiple year selection, Zack Greinke (3 times – 2017-2019). The other five were Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Johnny Cueto, Ian Desmond, and Matt Wieters. What was telling was that each of those players were selected for the 2016 ASG, their first year in the contract. Nothing since. Not a great return on the team’s investment.
I can hear the argument now that AS appearances are only a popularity contest. If that were true (and to some degree it is), then it certainly would appear that none of those players are popular enough to drive attendance. Another strike against the contract.
Of course we also know that World Series increases a team’s revenues which can offset some of that contract/value disparity. Let’s acknowledge that to be true. Of the 15 players, exactly two have been on a WS championship team, Davis Price (2018), and Jason Heyward (2016). While Price had a good 2018 WS, Heyward was horrible in 2016 – .150/.150/.150/.300. 3 hits in 20 PA, all singles, and no RBIs.
Out of the 15 top FA, only Kenta Maeda clearly earned his contract, and to a lesser degree, Mike Leake. There were limited AS appearances, and only 2 played on a WS championship team. Clearly, the top 2015-2016 FA were not sufficient game changers, and I would submit that these players were overhyped and overpaid, and certainly not worthy of the contracts that were let.
Now why am I comparing 2019-2020 to the 2015-2016 FA the current crop? The 2015-2016 group was a very highly thought of group and the contracts signed showed that. Many signed early as have done this year. The Dodgers were looking for pitchers in 2015-2016 as they are this year. The top 6 pitchers came off the board by mid-December. The Dodgers were obviously in on Greinke before the DBacks swooped in with a crazy contract. While the others were being signed, LAD was temporarily in contract with Hisashi Iwakuma before medicals canceled the contract. But LAD had lost Greinke and needed pitching. After the top 6 were signed, the Dodgers signed Scott Kazmir on New Years Eve 2015. That did not turn out very well, but the overall contract commitment was minor compared to the top 7 (including Wei-Yin Chen who signed in January). Still Kazmir was not a necessary contract.
Like 2015-2016, current year FA are signing early, and the Dodgers seem to be on the outside looking in, waiting for that great deal. What does that mean? I hope it means that AF will not sign a Scott Kazmir type pitcher to fill a need. The Dodger starters are certainly questionable. Urias, May, and Gonsolin may be good, or they may turn out to be overmatched or tire in the second half at their young age. Kenta Maeda will be a starter, and if history is any indicator, will not be as effective the 2nd half of the season. I fully expect Buehler to be a top tier elite pitcher in 2020, and while I know many out there do not agree, I believe that Clayton Kershaw was embarrassed by Game 5, and may actually alter his approach. Kershaw is already working out, and has apparently lost weight and is more flexible. He will be 32 next season, certainly not over the hill.
The Dodgers are still too LH dominant, but that can be remedied via trade. If you give any credence to Boston baseball radio personalities, the Mookie Betts trade is gaining traction. But so far the only two names that have been mentioned are Betts and Joc. This too will probably go nowhere, but Mookie in Dodger Blue and in RF would sure be a great sight.
There is probably a need for another (or two) legit late inning relievers. The only name that has been connected to LAD in the remaining FA group is Dellin Betances. Maybe Eric can call AF and advise him to ignore 2019 WS Games 6 and 7 and sign Will Harris. There are also trades that are conceivable, but not likely. Or AF may stay with his current roster of relievers, and tell us all again that they are a championship bullpen. Who knows this year maybe they will be (or not).
One thing we do know is that AF does not advertise his transactions, so he may do nothing or something clearly out of the blue.
While I would have loved to have had Gerrit Cole pitching for LAD, not at $324MM for 9 years. Rendon does not make LAA a WS contender. I have no idea if this current group of FA is as overpriced as the 2015-2016 group. It certainly appears that not only were the excessive 2015-2016 contracts bad business decisions, but it also suggests that they were also poor baseball decisions. We can revisit the 2019-2020 FA market again in 4 years and pass judgement at that time.
Ironically the player I see as living the Hollywood lifestyle played for the Angels; Bo Belinsky.
I was thinking the same thing.
Mamie Van Doren.
Yankees also had DiMaggio and Monroe.
Leo Durocher and Larraine Day — not to mention his gambling partner George Raft — that got him suspended from MLB when he was supposed to manage the Dodgers in Jackie Robinson’s first season
Maybe Mary Hart sitting behind home plate that bothers guys like Rendon. It’s not like Doris Day still attends games.
I don’t think that “earning the contract” is necessarily something that you have to do if the player makes your team better. Especially when a team is full of players that over earn their pay. The Astros knew that Greinke hadn’t “earned his contract” when they traded for him, but did it anyway because they knew he made them a better team. I have no idea how much more a team makes by playing in post season series. If you do simple math, 35,000 seats x $400 per person in ticketing, parking, merchandise and concessions would be a cool $14M per game which doesn’t account for any broadcast $$ or any other revenue streams. So, if you play just a few extra post-season games by signing that bad contract, you can see it isn’t all that bad after all. The title itself is priceless. Goodwill is a thing on the balance sheet as you well know. How much is a title worth in goodwill?
One could argue that this is how baseball economics works. When you’re young and good, you over earn what you’re paid for. When you hit free agency, you under earn your contract. If you’re goal is to maximize the value of your players, you would never bring up a 21 YO. Everyone would stay put in the minors so that their age 25-30 seasons are still under team control with arbitration so you can maximize the value of their production against the minimum salary you can possibly pay. Since baseball economics is what it is, it would be very rare that any free agent earns his contract. The team that drafts and develops the player always gets the player’s most valuable years, the team that signs the free agent always pays for past performance.
Changing subjects, I would really like to see a Betts deal come to fruition whether attached to Price or not. Price isn’t going to “earn” his 32 M per year for the next three years, but he’s still a very good number 2 when he’s on the bump. If you get Betts’ typical 6 WAR floor next year, you offset Price’s value by about 28M. And there’s a chance that both are game changers in the post season.
I agree that “earning the contract” is a business decision, but to simply dismiss that some teams make these decisions with this type of analysis is wrong IMO. What team was made better with any FA signed in 2015-2016, other than LAD who made both a sound business and baseball decision? The Astros did trade for Greinke, but the DBacks are paying $10MM a year to Houston for Greinke, so the Astros did not assume the full contract.
The funny thing is, the Greinke deal certainly isn’t horrible compared to others. How much did Kazmir and McCarthy earn? The guy that signed Greinke lost his job. The guy that signed Kazmir and McCarthy got extended.
Kazmir, Anderson, McCarthy, et al made a lot less combined than Greinke and you have to look at why they were signed: The team already had bloated bad contracts.
They made less, but their “value” was more negative. If you begin to “look at why they were signed” you would also have to do that for everyone on the list above.
My argument is this.
Most free agents will always be an over pay in terms of dollar value to WAR value.
There is just as much, or if not more risk in signing mid tier guys, than top tier guys.
Trades cost just as much, if not more since the prospects generally outperform their paltry salaries during their team controlled years.
And if you don’t sign any free agents, and don’t make any trades, you’re team will always be unbalanced since drafting players based on needs instead of best available regardless of needs will result in less draft value.
This is why a GM’s job is hard. So go ahead and overpay from time to time in a trade or free agency so you can optimize the product on the field.
Kazmir had a contract loss of $41.4MM, and McCarthy had a contract loss of$26.6MM.
Jordan Zimmermann, Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, and Ian Desmond had worse contracts than Kazmir.
Add David Price and Johnny Cueto to the list for worse contracts than McCarthy.
I agree that it is a fine line to match good business decisions with good baseball decisions. Because of the value of young pre-arbitration and arbitration players, the loss of the larger contracts can be minimized if the player added is a good baseball decision. I am not as opposed to Zack Greinke as Mark may be, but other than Greinke, which of those pitchers/players would have been a good baseball decision for LAD?
At the time they were signed, Kazmir and McCarthy were not bad signings. Kazmir was in demand that year as he was coming off of 3 relatively successful years in a row. That he would get injured was something that could be easily predicted, without the benefit of hindsight. McCarthy benefited from having a good half season with the Yankees. His cost wasn’t so outrageous that the signing, at the time it was made, would be considered dope fiend. Besides he probably gave us contract value just in his humorous tweets.
2D2. No one is a bad contract at the time they signed.
AC, remove Price because even if his contract is upside down from a WAR standpoint, he pitched like a boss in the post-season and netted them a trophy.
Yes Price did, and I gave him credit for that.
Rendon mentioned Hollywood Lifestyle and he also mentioned his politics in the same interview. His decision probably considered both a little bit and some other things that he didn’t mention because people don’t speak completely freely, especially when cameras are on.
Hell, look at what Bum said about winning with the DBacks. Greinke said the same thing. Did the DBacks come close to winning with Greinke? Nope. Do you think MadBum knows that being in the same division? Yes. These guys just say things and they all have different reasons why they chose the way they did. Cole said it was a dream come true to play for the Yankees. Some choose because they were fans growing up like Cole. Some choose a team because their wife wants to live in a particular region, like Wheeler. It really doesn’t matter what their reason was, the bottom line is that a GM or PBO gets paid a lot of money, coming up empty is not earning your contract.
It really doesn’t matter what their reason was, the bottom line is that a GM or PBO gets paid a lot of money, coming up empty is not earning your contract.
While I do not disagree at all with the concept, “coming up empty” needs to be defined. Granted, if your lone criterion is winning the WS, then AF has not come through… yet. If that is indeed your lone criterion, then how long does the GM/PBO have to accomplish that goal? I look at AF’s body of work in total, and IMO AF has earned his contract. Other’s disagree and that is okay. I just want to see the success bars defined.
I would define coming up empty as not improving the team, not offsetting your own free agent losses, not addressing your needs. I don’t think you can possibly say anything other than a World Series is a failure. But, always being a bridesmaid is also failure. The goal that came out of the camel’s mouth was to add an impact guy. If they don’t, that’s a failure. As far as how long to get that World Series? Ned got 9 years, but he had to work under some lean years under McCourt and he didn’t start with a stacked team like AF. AF is five years and counting. Add the fact that he never won anything in his last job, and he’s had about as much time as Colletti. Colletti has a ring, AF doesn’t.
AF has been superb at building a minor league system, a total baseball organization in every way from nutrition to technology. But, he is NOT getting the ultimate job done when it comes to player acquisitions and winning the trade or setting a line in the sand for “value” on a free agent isn’t the way to get an elite player.
You and I have both said they need to go bold. Have they? Not yet, but I’m not counting them out yet.
I think maybe Rendon is just terrible at ping pong and he didn’t want to part of the Kershaw Challenge, or the tournaments held during spring training.
That was funny 2D2. Good point.
You may think it is coming up empty… and that is your prerogative, but the real question is “Are they better or worse in 2020? That is the only question I care about.
If the Front Office does nothing more this off-season, they came up empty because the team is clearly not improved. I don’t think and certainly hope that this isn’t the case. I think by the end of the off-season, the team will be improved.
The same argument was made last year after the Puig trade. However, having the untested Verdugo in the lineup with Bellinger manning right field clearly improved the team. Who’s to say the same can’t be true with giving Lux, May, Urias, and Gonsolin their opportunities to shine.
Sorry 2D2, but I don’t agree that the team was “Clearly better” with Verdugo over Puig. Alex’s 817 OPS was solid, but falls short of Puig’s career OPS and he was injured for the post-season. Puig is a career 280 hitter in the post-season and Alex hasn’t yet to appear on a post-season roster. The guys we got in the Puig deal and the guy that got his job had no bearing on the post-season whatsoever. Unless you count Pollock who had the worst post-season in the history of baseball. Trading Puig hurt the Dodgers last year, but they did get some prospects back. Would you rather have gotten past that first round, or have those prospects?
Sadly, the biggest reason we lost to the Nats is because of Mr. Magoo, but we resigned him.
Wow. The 2015 free agent class was pretty much of a disaster. The mistake the Dodgers made was not just signing Zack Greinke for 7 years and $175 million with no opt out. That’s what the agent was pushing. Then they failed to extend him in the spring prior to the opt out and Greinke had interest at that time in an extension. Lot less money too. Then they had a deal done at around $160 million and were waiting until Monday to finalize it, here come the Diamondbacks with a crazy offer. The rest is history. The Dodgers end up with Kazmir and some other not so good rotation options. Not LA’s finest moment. Greinke actually produced and the Dodgers wasted a lot of money on faulty rotation types. Kenta Maeda has been okay considering cost and could be a really good bullpen pitcher.
It’s funny about Jason Heyman. Almost every analyst thought he was a difference maker and deserved what the Cubs paid. I didn’t see it. He was an outfielder with defensive skills, but his bat and power played well below that contract. It was all about the analytics and they got it wrong. I remember Matt Vasgersian was lone voice saying I don’t get it. Maybe Theo should have listened.
Hey, it’s Arte Moreno. You really need pitching, Arte. No problem, I’ll go get a big hitter. Yah, that works.
Do you think Cory Seager is enjoying the Christmas season hearing his name tossed around in all these proposed trades, most of which make no sense? Just a guess, but Roberts is probably spending some time on the phone.
The Dodgers may be tight lipped, but others aren’t and that leads to all kinds of crazy speculation. Acquiring Betts would be fine, but who really wants the David Price contract? Let the Red Sox suffer this time, no bail outs.
Would the Dodgers actually go four years on Ryu with his injury history? They still need someone to pick up innings this summer. No doubt, Friedman has something brewing, probably under the radar. Are the Dodgers contributing to all the speculation with false leads. That wouldn’t be a surprise.
Good column, AC.
…”Do you think Cory Seager is enjoying the Christmas season hearing his name tossed around in all these proposed trades, most of which make no sense? Just a guess, but Roberts is probably spending some time on the phone.”
If he dumped Boras as his agent he probably wouldn’t be hearing his name mentioned as much. He might even have a 5 year extension by now with a no trade clause.
I don’t have all that much empathy for players that have signed with Boras.
I agree. Most baseball fans sincerely dislike Scott Boras. But Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer (to name a few) are very happy Boras is their agent. For the players, Scott Boras is a great agent.
The problem is that both the organizations and players look at MLB as their business; their livelihood. But we fans cannot understand how a pitcher can earn $36MM a year for 9 years…unconditionally. To many of us baseball is still a game and not a business. Once we recognize the business aspect, the game is less fun. I love the game of baseball. Always have and always will. Scott Boras is an anathema to that game.
Are you a communist, Bum?. 🙂
The new writer…. Would that be Ross Porter?
I hope so.
no
That was my guess last night although I didn’t actually name him. Back to the drawing board.
If you’re willing to answer MT, has he ever been on the Dodger payroll, either as player, coach, front office or broadcaster?
Not that I am aware…
Quoting Porter when he teamed with Tom Snider on LA NBC local news…we have baseball scores to report–5, 7, 3 ,9, 2, 1
That always made me laugh.
I have a question. if Greinke had been with the Dodgers in the 2 WS. Would the results have changed?
Maybe
Maybe not
I think you could make a case for Greinke making a difference in 2017. He dominated the Astros that year, totally befuddled them. You could certainly make an argument that he could have helped in 2019. He would have definitely made the Dodgers better in those years. Certainly they could have avoided the bad contracts that came with trying to replace him. Dodger baseball would have been more fun with him than without him. Excellent pitcher, very good defensively and a pretty good hitter.
I agree buffalo. He was one of my favorite Dodgers when he was on the team.
I think the only question is why hasn’t this team won a WS? After 7 straight failures I don’t think the answer is just unlucky. It hasn’t been good enough and as is the 2020 team will continue the tradition. This team needs another ace pitcher to team with Buehler. I love Kersh but if he’s your second ace and pitching twice in each series then 0 for 8 is the end result
So the only way the Dodgers could have won the 2020 WS was lost when they said they declined to pay $325MM++ for 9 years for Gerrit Cole? Ryu is going to cost 4 years $80MM. That is acceptable? Since there is no Ace available via FA or trade, I guess the Dodgers do not have a chance this year. I recognize that is how many on this site feel. I am just not one of them.
The biggest reason they haven’t won is because Doc makes stupid decisions each post-season, and the Astros cheated.
I cannot disagree.
I don’t like thinking about either of those things. My ulcer from 2017 and 2018 has just barely healed.
I’m just saying instead of Betts and Lindor I’d rather have Clevinger. Who knows who’s available. That’s AF’s job. Find someone. I don’t think we have no chance since we’re practically given a spot in the playoffs in the West. But I don’t think it’s a good chance according to past history
Fair enough. I think every Dodger fan would like to have Clevinger in the rotation. The question is, are you willing to trade Lux and May for Clevinger? May and Ruiz for Clevinger? AF had the same scenario in 2015 when Philadelphia asked for Seager and others for Cole Hamels, and said no then as well. Did he make a mistake? It is not as if AF is not willing to acquire elite talent, it is just that everyone wants the Dodgers top prospects, but not their mid tier prospects. You are not going to get Clevinger for Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, Connor Wong, and Michael Grove. I think if Cleveland would take that deal, AF would get it done. Now to come up with the level of prospects not named Lux and May to make it happen. AF believes the best way to build the organization is from within. There are many that disagree with that concept, and believe that it is worth sacrificing the future for a better opportunity to win it all now. I am not saying that is how you believe, but it is not as easy as saying that AF has to find an Ace, because that is his job.
I can guarantee that Clevinger is available… for Lux and May.
If AF makes that trade he should be fired!
I can’t say that it’s a sure thing that Clevenger will be better than Urias, May and Gonsolin next year. It’s funny how people on this site over value our prospects so much, they will never include them in a trade, and at the same time they don’t trust them to be starting pitchers or position players on this team.
Unless the prospect is perennial All-Star, you should absolutely trade them if you can for the perennial All-Star.
One more thing to say about Clevenger. He has some nice peripherals, but he’s never been an All-Star, never a 15 win season and has never been a 1, 2, or 3 on his own staff. So, when the hell did he become an “Ace”
Clevenger
MHP 95.4 RPM 2340 Exit 86.4
Urias
MHP 95.1 RPM 2511 Exit 83.5
May
MHP 96 RPM 2412 Exit 86.8
Gonsolin
MHP 93.6 RPM 2456 Exit 88.6
I think we are full up with prospect pitchers. Isn’t this a sign that trading one of them has come to pass? I have always been under the impression a prospect was still not a sure thing in the majors. Many fans now have questions whether Smith is all that he was cranked up to be and will he be able to be better than a .250 hitter? Why wouldn’t a team trade a prospect for someone who has proven their ability to win in the big leagues like Clevinger?
Even Ryu didn’t win 15 last season, 59. Why make that a number that has meaning? Clevinger is an automatic #3 the way he is now. Both Urias and May are the ones that have to prove their #3ness and neither has ever pitched a full season and will not be able to go the distance in 2020. There’s a lot of reasons why Clevinger makes sense.
Angels sign Julio Teheran to a one year deal. And ChiSox sign Gio Gonzalez.
It’s pretty easy to improve the Angels rotation. Maeda and Stripling would be their two aces.
Yes they would. I want to make sure my integrity stays intact (LOL)…I was not advocating for Teheran, just reporting. It is amazing how many LAA fans think this is a good signing. To each his own.
Actually Ohtani will be their Ace and Teheran will be their 2, Heaney 3. Not great, not horrible. I would honestly rather have May, Urias and Gonsolin. All three have as high or higher upside than anyone they have. I’ll keep pointing out that Gonsolin wasn’t 100% last year and he was still really good.
Gonsolin was touted as having a 100 MPH fastball in 2018. I saw him in Spring Training last year and he touched 92. Then made 2 starts for OKC and went on the DL for over a month. Then he was built up really slowly, finally pitching 5 innings again on June 20. It was uneven all year after that. I can’t wait to see what a healthy Gonsolin looks like next year.
I hear he was hanging out down by the schoolyard when the Angels signed him.
Who was he with? He’s always hanging out with someone when he’s at the schoolyard and it wasn’t me and wasn’t you either.
Rosie, Queen of Corona?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2867253-best-potential-trade-packages-for-chicago-cubs-slugger-kris-bryant#slide0
I would do that trade with Gray instead of May. Still beats the Padres scenario.
Seems kind of dumb for Chicago to trade Bryant.
We are not yet to Christmas, and 27 of the top 50 FA per MLBTR have signed this winter; 23 of the top 31. Still available from that MLBTR list:
Starting Pitching:
Hyun-jin Ryu (L)
Dallas Keuchel (L)
Alex Wood (L)
Rich Hill (L)
Ivan Nova (R)
Drew Smyly (L)
Relief Pitching (all RHRP):
Will Harris
Daniel Hudson
Craig Stamman
Steve Cishek
Dellin Betances
Pedro Strop
RH Bats (non-Catcher/non-DH)
Josh Donaldson (3B)
Nicholas Castellanos (OF/DH)
Marcell Ozuna (OF)
Yasiel Puig (OF)
It appears that AF is exploring trade opportunities for both starting pitching and RH bats. I think he is very reluctant to go four years for Ryu. I think he would consider 3/$60MM, and expect 1 to 2 good years. I think the same is true for Donaldson. AF is very reluctant to go for that 4th year for a 34 year old 3B. I do not believe that AF has any interest in any of the three FA outfielders.
I have no idea what his plans are for relief pitching (if any). That has never been an urgent concern for AF.
I give major props to AF for drafting and developing young talent. It’s the only sustainable way to run a successful long term franchise. But there comes a time where your missing that one or two championship pieces to put you over the top. That’s the advantage of having cheap controllable young talent. The Cubs got Lester, Astro’s got Verlander and Red Rox got Sale. That’s the kind of ace the Dodgers need this year! I don’t think Kersh, Turner and Jansen want to wait another year or two for May, Urias, Lux and all to develop. Let’s win this year! That’s my two cents
I completely agree Cassidy
” Once we recognize the business aspect, the game is less fun.”
This is very true. I think this is the one aspect that many fans don’t understand. Baseball is a business. And business decisions are not always fun. In fact, they rarely are. A win isn’t always that slam dunk move followed by high 5s and chest bumps. Often a win is avoiding a mistake. Nobody throws you a “way to not screw up” party. Even though avoiding a mistake can be just as important as making a killer deal.
I’ll use poker as an analogy. Years ago I played a lot of Texas holdem. I had a regular Friday night game with the same group of guys. It was fun. Like anything, getting better had a cost. Losing a lot. I really don’t play anymore. Why? Because I got pretty good at it. Playing the game correctly resulted in some really boring nights. Really boring. 5 or 6 guys playing who are actually pretty good can be an absolute bore. $500 on the table, but we’re pushing around the same $10 pot of blinds all night. We couldn’t really get any bad players to come. Well, they’d come once and realize the rest of the table saw a giant mark on their forehead. Never come back.
You can only play the hand your dealt. And sometimes that requires making difficult decisions. You can land pocket Aces pre-flop. Best hand possible. Poor players barely hold back their excitement. They start dreaming about revenge against Carl who took half their stack earlier by hitting a flush on the river. They look at the chips on the table and already count them as their own. Then the flop comes down. 2 8 2. They bet. But they barely realize they just got check raised. “There still good. I’ve got Aces”. And they call. Freaking ACES!!
A good player lays those down. Aces don’t mean crap when you know, or should know, the guy who just check raised you has a 2. Your odds just went from 85% pre-flop to 35% post flop. A good player knows that. A poor player can’t give up the dream and will likely chase that hand all the way into oblivion.
Mucking a pocket Aces is no fun. No fun at all. But when the odds aren’t in your favor, it often has to be done. No high 5s. No making Carl pay for hitting that Spade on the river earlier. Just math. Boring objective reasoning.
It’s much more fun to just go all in and let er ride! That is until you realize the better players now have all your chips. They had less fun, but ALL your chips.
AD isn’t enjoying this. He’s not suppose to. He’s trying to get a win without making a big mistake. Just like all those free agents from 2015/2016. Sometimes the best move is to not make one. It’s just not very fun.
Since I love poker, though I never wanted to learn to play Hold’em, I will continue the analogy as I see it, which is that sometimes you have to go all-in. I have only played limit poker, which does not have the excitement of table stakes, but is easier to win at if you know what you are doing. I do agree that when all the players do, then the game gets pretty boring, and the house gets most of the money via table charges. If one plays table stakes, you can lose all of the money you brought in one hand, with one mistake. That is something I never have had to deal with, and it takes a lot of skill or a lot of money to play that way.
It seems like Friedman (though I think it is mostly the Dodgers owners), much prefers to play limit poker. Go after cheaper free agents, rely on cost-controlled young players. Have you ever seen them go all-out for someone? Just Greinke and again, that was because he got them the $7 billion TV deal with Time-Warner. Otherwise, they always miss out on the big names. There are different reasons each time: the player just wanted the higher offer; he did not want to come here; we just didn’t quite have enough to offer in terms of players, if it is a trade; or the other club wanted too much. You can rationalize never making a deal. or putting a lot of money into a pot. That’s one way to go, but ultimately you have to explain not winning any championships, or going home the big winner in the poker game.
Outside of tournament play, going all in against solid players rarely happens. Going all in is usually the result of one or more players making a significant mistake. You can’t engineer it. You just have to be ready when the opportunity arises. It rarely does. Playing poker correctly involves mostly small wins. It’s not that often you get to bust somebody for their whole stack on one hand. It’s why I don’t play anymore. 5 hours of play against solid competition often results in a taking a couple decent pots. Big wins are few and far between. Good poker players know that playing the game effectively is a grind. You put chips on the table when the odds are in your favor, you avoid putting them on when they are not. It’s not very exciting. Or satisfying, in my opinion. I enjoy other things much more these days.
Offering $300m to Cole was a huge move. Huge. What AD likely didn’t know is that it was a bluff. He was going to be a Yankee all along. Boras was just slow playing until the pot got out of control. Turns out he had the nuts all along. I’d love to have Cole on the Dodgers. But the Yankees got played. Likely for an additional $50m to $75m. They went all in. Only time will tell if that was a brilliant risk to take or a another boat anchor to add to their growing collection. Personally, at $324m over 9 years, I don’t like those odds. Im not sure I like $300m over 8 years. That’s a huge risk.
You can’t bust somebody in poker just because you really really want to. It takes skill, patience and incredible discipline to know when to go all in. It has to come to you. If the odds aren’t there, you got to muck your cards and move on to the next hand. You’ll likely have to muck that hand too. Being smart about decisions can be very frustrating and boring. In hindsight every division is easy. At the time, all you can do is evaluate the odds and the circumstances. If they don’t look like they are in your favor, move on.
AD has a big stack. If the opportunity isn’t there, wait. We may have to wait until the trade deadline. He’s acquired top level players at reasonable cost before. I think he will again. No amount of “wanting” changes the calculus. The opportunity has to be right. Even if all that is boring as hell.
For what it’s worth David Vassegh said last night that he doesn’t believe Mookie Betts will get traded and doesn’t believe the Dodgers are interested in Josh Donaldson.
After all these insane money contracts this off season why would any player not want to become a free agent? I think drafting and keeping prospects at least the right prospects is going to be more important now than ever before.
Do we actually have a NEED to add a position player(s)?
Do we actually have a NEED to add a starting pitcher(s)?
Do we actually have a NEED to add a reliever(s)?
We don’t NEED to if we’re satisfied watching other teams celebrate at Dodger stadium! And Jayne no one wins the World Series of Poker without going all in at some point during the tournament
Exactly Cassidy. Dodgers ownership never goes all in. At some point you have to. If you still lose so what, at least you can say you went all in. The fans can accept that. But last year’s trade deadline needing relief help and then not doing anything to address it. What bites us in the playoffs this year no reliable relief, so the starters have to be relief pitchers. Andrew Friedman can’t fool other gm’s anymore. So in that case the wallet needs to be opened.
James,
I going to re-write what you wrote, the way it comes off to me:
Exactly Cassidy. Dodgers ownership never goes all in, the way I think they should in my vast experience as a seasoned baseball executive. At some point you have to, because I said so and I am smarter than you. If you still lose so what, at least you can say you went all in, well I guess there is never all in because you could have spent another $100 million…. maybe $100 billion. . The fans can accept that. But last year’s trade deadline needing relief help and then not doing anything to address it is crazy – they should have traded for Felipe Vasquez like I wanted. What bites us in the playoffs this year no reliable relief, so the starters have to be relief pitchers. Yeah, I know that’s what the Nats and Astros did too, but I am only talking about the Dodgers because I like to cherry-pick facts. Andrew Friedman can’t fool other gm’s anymore. So in that case the wallet needs to be opened… and I know everything because I am so old and wise!
Sorry, but when I read what you write, I lose brain cells and we all know I can’t afford it. You are welcome to post here, but have some substance to what you say. AC’s argument today makes you look like a buffon.
Since all of you are all knowing and think im an idiot. I post my thoughts and i dont name call. So if someone doesnt agree with your thoughts they get ganged up on. Any how since all of you are baseball einsteins answer this. Will the dodgers as is win the world series in 2020. The answer is no. If you think they are you are crazy. To me that is a failure of a season. Who wants to hear about rich people worrying about profits.
You are missing the whole point…
For this franchise who hasnt won since 1988 and have been to the 7 straight years. The point is to win the chip at this point. If the players are all in on the field. Fans are all in at the ballpark. Front office needs to be all in and stop making excuses.
spell-buffoon.
Look who he’s learned from, Mark!
Tournaments are a different animal. Blinds are increased exponentially as time goes on. Time and blinds become just another factor to calculate into the odds.
I don’t buy that the Dodgers have some small window. We have a large window. A solid minor league system and financial flexibility are what determines that window. Empty minor leagues and boat anchor contracts close that window. AD isn’t under some artificial clock.
I would LIKE the Dodgers to improve their roster. I always do. But not at the expense of significantly shortening the window. Luck plays a huge role in the playoffs. Always does.
I’d like to see how May and Urias perform. I’d like to see what Lux does playing everyday. I’d like to see Dj Peters get a shot to platoon with Joc. If one or more of those players don’t help the team, make a trade. Even a big one. The Dodgers are a top 3 team in baseball as constructed right now, in my opinion. This isn’t an episode of 24. There is no H Bomb ticking away down under the stadium.
It certainly appears that Donaldson is getting closer to signing with the Nats. According some, Washington is willing to go 4 years for Donaldson. I can read it now, how AF blew it again by not signing Donaldson. Never mind that JT is the LAD 3B, and was not as willing to move to 1B as was originally reported. JT was on The Petros and Money Radio Show and had this dialogue:
First, the question is asked about the potential move to 1B, “how did that come up, and did anybody ever bring it up to you?” Did Turner’s thoughts come across accurately? He first shared his thoughts on the idea of a move being out of his hands.
JT: “I think it got blown a little out proportion. I mean, I’m a team guy — I’ll do whatever it takes to win like I said — I just want to win a championship. At the end of the day, it’s not my job to decide who’s coming in here and playing, and who’s playing where. That’s Dave’s [Roberts] job, and it’s Andrew’s [Friedman] job to sign free agents and all that…
Regardless of how I felt I was going to haven’t a choice. If they signed Rendon and Dave wants me to play first, I’m gonna to play first I don’t have a choice.”
But the money quote came after the setup. JT: “I didn’t actually say it.”
For more than two months the impression has been that JT would welcome the move to first if it meant winning. And while that may be true in spirit, he wasn’t ready to pack up his bags for the move across the diamond to first base. In fact, it was a media spin on a halfhearted statement he made while the Dodgers were still playing the Washington Nationals… and Anthony Rendon.
JT: “I actually got approached by a reporter … he came up and asked me about Rendon being a free agent and whether or not I want him to come to LA and I’m like, ‘dude, we’re about to go play against this guy — I don’t have time to talk about this’ and I kind of left at ‘look, I’ve played all over the place my whole career — whatever happens happens and I’ll adjust’ and I think the headline to the story was ‘Justin Turner agrees to move to first base.”
Doesn’t sound like JT is keen on moving from 3B but would do so if it helped the team.
Believe half of what you see and nothing you hear…
Thanks for posting this. It’s a good reminder that the media is in the bullsh*t business.
What does going all in mean?
1. Does it mean that the Dodgers should have spent $350MM for Cole.
2. Should they have volunteered to move out of LA for Rendon?
3. Should they have spent $130MM on Wheeler?
4. Should they offer Donaldson 4/$100MM?
5. Should they have offered 5/$100 to MadBum?
5. Should they offer Ryu 4/$80MM
6. Should they trade Lux and May for Lindor? For Clevinger?
All Dodger fans are upset that Cole signed with NYY and Rendon signed with LAA. For all those that want to go all in, please define it and advise AF why it is best to mortgage the future for a CHANCE to win it this year.
For me, going “all in” or “going bold” does not mean any of the above.
1 – Didn’t even have the opportunity. Cole’s mind was made up.
2 – Hell no, not with that 56,000 capacity gold mine.
3 – Wife said East Coast. That decision was already made.
4 – Yes
3 – No
5 – Yes
6 – No, but I would do K-Bear, Gray and Downs or Gonsolin.
In my mind going all in means making a decision that has binary consequences. You win or lose. Not much in between. You only do so when you feel the odds of the win drastically outweigh the odds of lose.
$300m and 8 years is all in. When your offering roughly 15%-20% of your future payroll for the next 8 years to ONE player, it will have significant repercussions. One way or the other.
The same with trading away your best prospects. The Cubs are watching a kid in the infield for the Yankees put up some impressive numbers. The fact that the Cubs won in 2016, made that trade for Chapman mute. They won. It’s arguable how much Chapman really contributed to the WS win. But they won. Had the Cubs not won in 2016, trading away Gleyber for a couple months of Chapman would have gone down as one of the worst trades in MLB history.
All in, means balls out. Do so ever so carefully. The cost of getting it wrong can be very high. At least in my opinion.
I think AF was all in on Cole. Cole just wanted to play for the Yankees and he and Boras used the Dodgers to up the ante for the Yankees. Nothing more he could have done. We need a difference maker in the playoffs and I think a top end starter makes the biggest difference. An ace along side Buehler that could win a couple of low scoring games in a series. Cole is that kind of ace and maybe Clevinger. I’m not trading Lux for him but I think we could put some kind of package together for him. A lot of his metrics seem to indicate he could be an ace.
I don’t care who the Dodgers sign or trade for, if I get a chance to bet “any team not named Dodgers”, to win the world series, I would bet against the Dodgers.
Likewise I would bet “not Yankees ” if that bet were offered.
If the Dodgers get Clevinger Ill bet you it’s a Dodger Yankee WS!
Mark, you are a great guy, why attack James like that? Come on man. This AC/DC, Mark, attack anyone who disagrees motto is getting old and tired. I’ve read and posted on this blog longer than anyone, minus Mark. When attacks become the norm on critics, which over the past couple years it has. It’s hard to post here anymore. Mark, A/C, relax, please, this team hasn’t won a World Series for 33 years, you are defending a lost cause. I met Mark, I drank beers with Mark, I love Mark. But geez guys, relax on the frustrated fans, this franchise has choked repeatedly, stop taking it so god damn personal, especially you A/C, change your name to negative nelly, your views are your opinion, you never worked for a dodger organization, no one anointed you dodger blog president. It’s hard to post here anymore.
James, I love you man! I completely understand your frustration, the big dogs here will say our kids will win the World Series, what has been said for consecutive years, it hasn’t happened