I think it’s time to debunk some myths that have been propounded since the “Debacle of Game 5” (That’s what I call it). In the interest of full disclosure, I called for Dave Roberts firing… and still would fire him, but some of what you all believe about him is incorrect and I’m here to debunk it… among other things. By the way: I can still live with Doc and the players are fine with him… even Kenley.
- “Roberts refused to play David Freese.” – That falls under the category of “felony stupid.” No, I don’t mean that Doc is felony stupid. I think those who believe Doc just chose not to play Freese because of “whatever” are felony stupid. Everyone knows what David Freese can do and the only reason he didn’t play every game was that he couldn’t. In case you didn’t watch, he could hardly run and is allegedly facing multiple surgeries. He chose to retire as a result. So, remove that card from the deck of Reasons I hate Dave Roberts.
- “It was Dave Roberts’s sole decision to bring in Clayton Kershaw and pitch to at least three batters.” – First of all, I find it incredulous that fans and media pundits can even think this. I guess it falls into the category “It’s better to blame somebody than nobody.” First of all, let’s look at Clayton most recent history in relief in the playoffs: (1) In 2018, he closed out Game 7 of the NLCS by striking out 2 of the last 3 batters in getting the last 3 outs; (2) In 2017, Clayton pitched the last 2 innings of Game 7 and struck out 4 batters in getting 6 outs; and (3) In 2016 Clayton saved Game 3 of the NLDS and struck out 1 of the two batters he faced in getting the save. So, Clayton had a history of pitching successfully out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Yes, I know it didn’t work in 2019, but it’s purely second-guessing and blatant sour grapes to blame Dave Roberts. Here’s the kicker: The Dodgers announced BEFORE the game that Clayton Kershaw would pitch out of the pen. In fact, The LA Times reported this: “It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Dodgers win without Kershaw or Jansen being used out of the bullpen. Yet, both will have to overcome hurdles of the mind.” It was the organization’s plan to use Clayton Kershaw out of the bullpen and after striking out the first batter, I saw no reason he should not have pitched to Rendon and even after the HR, I could see the logic in pitching to the LH Soto. Yes, it didn’t work (big time), but Dave Roberts was not to blame for it. Clayton Kershaw is solely to blame.
- “The bullpen issues were never addressed.” – That’s a smokescreen to obfuscate what really happened: The Dodger hitters were to blame for lack of scoring in Game 5. The Dodgers’ bullpen issues were nothing compared to the Nationals, yet they figured it out. Any sane person would not trade the Dodgers bullpen for the Nationals bullpen… yet they are still playing. The National had the WORST BULLPEN in MLB ALL YEAR! Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
The Final Word
This team is very good, very deep, very determined and the farm system is one of the best in baseball. The team has won more games in the past 5 years during Andrew Friedman’s Presidency than any other team in baseball. Friedman has not won the big one yet! But he was mandated to win while rebuilding. The Cubs and Astros got there by blowing it up, tanking and hoarding picks – the Dodgers got there while keeping on winning and in fact, having the best record in baseball under Friedman.
The Dodgers have not won the World Series in the 5 years that Andrew Friedman has been President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers. Some moronic fans want to lynch him for that, forgetting that the team he has built won the most games EVER for any LA Dodger team, had the best record in Dodger history under his Presidency and have a bright future. They forget that in the 27 years BEFORE Andrew Friedman they did not win the World Series either. The morons want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Moronic!
I don’t know how else to say it, but to just say it: “You are either devoid of reason or a freaking moron if you want Andrew Friedman fired.” I can’t stand to read such drivel. Last week, someone said that I don’t tolerate fools easily. Winner, winner, Chicken dinner! I don’t (tolerate fools)! How many teams have been to the MLB Playoffs the last 5 years straight? HOW MANY? Just one: The Los Angeles Dodgers under Andrew Friedman. Yes, they have not won the World Championship and that is not what we want, but he is on the right path. Exactly the right path. Totally and completely.
- I have read that the Dodgers need to rebuild the bullpen. I CALL BS!
- I have read that the Dodgers need to get a real ace, like Gerrit Cole. I agree and think AF will do exactly that. People think that this is not Andrew Friedman’s MO. There is no MO for this. This is uncharted territory. He has never been here.
- I have read that the Dodgers need to trade Joe Kelly. I call BS! Last year’s crap bullpen piece may be next year’s light’s out reliever.
The best bullpens are often built from homegrown pieces or lucky finds. I have said it before and I’ll keep saying it: “Yimi Garcia may be the best Dodger reliever next year.” Also, Kenley Jansen could come back with a vengeance (or not). We don’t know, but that’s how it works. Lit up one year, lights out the next! I am not saying that the Dodgers should not get more bullpen pieces, but I am saying that they may already have an exceptional bullpen next year… without any stupid, moronic, knee-jerk trades. If you are unfamiliar with the game of baseball, relievers are notoriously fickle. Some of the best relievers of 2019 may be some of the worst in 2020.
So many fans want to trade for Player A who was great in 2019, but in 2020, he may very well “morph” into Player Z who has little resemblance to Player A. Molly Knight (whom I like a lot) says the Dodgers need to make a big Free Agent Deal. I totally disagree. The Dodgers need to make a great free-agent deal. That’s the hard part. Gerrit Cole seems to be just what the Doctor ordered for the Dodgers, but will become a Justin Verlander Clone or a David Price Clone? That’s the risk.
Here’s what will likely happen next year:
- The Dodgers will try and get less LH on the batting side. Joc Pederson is the most likely to go. Nick Castellanos is squarely in the Dodgers’ sights. Many of you mocked me for pushing him, but he looks pretty good right about now. I like AC’s idea of getting Bryant from the Cubs and I would include Seager and Pederson in that deal… but it likely won’t happen. I like Corey Seager. I like him a lot. I think that he can get back to where he belongs. AC is right about Seager.
- Muncy, Bellinger, Lux, Verdugo, Pederson, Beaty, Seager, and Rios are all LH. Assuming Alex Verdugo is healthy next season, then he’s likely the RF’er and a RH Power bat in LF would look good… Nick Castellanos. I think RVS can help Casty get to the next level… and there is no compensation attached to him.
- That brings me to another important point: I believe that the second year under Robert Van Socyoc will yield even better results than this one. Cody Bellinger, in particular, made great strides in his game. Now, he has to take it to another level: He has to be even more selective and hit to the opposite field more.
- I predicted the Honeycutt-Prior swap and I think Mark Prior is much more ananlytics-driven than Honey. I think the blend will be great. Let’s not forget that the Dodgers had the best pitching staff in baseball in 2019, so it wasn’t that Honeycutt was doing a bad job. It was just time for change and time for Rick to slow down. He has earned it and is well-respected among his peers. I wonder who will be the next bullpen coach. Will Bill Hanselman go to SF or could be he the bullpen coach? Of course, if he is offered the SF manager’s job, he will take it… and I have heard rumors of that. We shall see.
- In retrospect, AC was right about DJ LeMahieu. He had a career year, flirting with “superstar stats.” While I don’t think he would have put up the monster numbers he did in NY, he would have been a nice asset at the top of the lineup. Instead of signing DJLM, Friedman signed AJ Pollock, whom I was never in on from jump street. He will be 32 next season and while his second half was good (.288/.348/.885) he disappeared in the playoffs and now has a playoff BA of .111. He can no longer play CF and I would not feel secure with him in LF at age 32. Maybe he can catch ‘lightning in a bottle” for one season but I would rather see Nick Castellanos there. Casty will be 28 next season and is really coming into his own. I would suggest signing him for LF and including Pollock in a multi-player deal (Friedman may have to throw in $10 million).
- While I like Gavin Lux, I don’t see him as a “can’t miss” prospect. Someone said that “he is not ready” based upon his brief body of work. Yeah, they said the same thing when Buehler came up at the end of the season. He was ready. Lux could be trade bait. Think about this: What about trading Lux, Pederson and another prospect or two for Mookie Betts? Andrew Friedman certainly has a lot to think about.
- It seems to me that it takes two Aces to win. Buehler and Cole would be two of the best. I am assuming that Cole remains healthy and pitches at the level he is currently pitching. That’s the risk! Should the Dodgers pull the trigger for a 7 year/$250 Million dollar deal? That’s the dope-fiend move I would make if I only wanted to make one. Financially, the Dodgers can do it and stay under the luxury threshold.
To those of you who believe that the Dodgers as an organization are not committed to winning, I say you believe that because you have developed your own set of skewed views as to what constitutes a commitment to winning. To say they are more committed to stadium renovations than winning is just ignorant. The Dodgers spend more on player development than anyone in baseball. The Yankees are close. You need to realize that spending big on a free agent is usually the recipe for the anthetisis of winning. However, this could be the offseason to break that mold.
Final Shots
Clayton Kershaw is a standup guy and feels horrible. He’s also not a quitter and the upside of this may be that he alters his approach to pitching. Everyone jumps on that first pitch because they know it will be a strike. His stubbornness made him great. Now he needs to evolve. He was still a TOP 10 starter in baseball this year. He has to undergo a ‘makeover” and realize that when you try too hard, you fail. If he can do that, then maybe he can finish out his last two years on top. Otherwise, he will continue to spiral down. I am betting that he now realzies that when the pain of staying the same becomes greater than the pain of change, it’s time to change.
Finally, now is the wrong time to throw away Floro, Garcia, Ferguson, Kelly, Jansen, Alexander and others. I am willing to bet that at least three of those pitchers are studs next year! What happened this year is not acceptable, but there’s no need to blow anything up.
Good morning Dodger people…I’m going to get in here before MT’s chum line is established…
This was a good one today MT… Short n sweet…
IMO a lot has to do with the return of a healthy Scott Verdugo… Since I saw him in ST, I thought we might have something special and it translated to the regular season… Does anyone have a Verdugo health update???
Log jam of LH hitters for sure… Some must go… Seasoned ballpalyers for sure with AJP topping my list… Martin??? I could see them trading Barnes and wait on the the arrival of Cartaya… He seems to be having a meteoric rise in the minors…
Wait’ll next year is the favorite cry of baseball fans, football fans, hockey fans and gardeners!!!
Cole??? Of course if it can be done… I would love to see a Mookie in the the Chavez Ravine OF…
Bryant or Casty would and could float my boat…
Just a shout out to Rich Honeyctt, a great pitching coach and good luck in your new position…Were in good hands I’m sure with hopefully with Pryor…
Wait’ll next year is the favorite cry of baseball fans, football fans, hockey fans and gardeners!!!
Alex is doing good, we have been working on his core strength and decompression exercises, and his back has been feeling extremely better.
We are making sure he will be good to start strength training in beginning of December, if one thing is for certain, Alex will be be at 100% health come ST next year
That is great news. I have predicted multiple batting titles for Alex!
Former Cougar’77…Always a Dodger fan!
Although I agree on Freese, you could see that he could hardly move. But Clayton to face Rendon made no sense to anyone else except you. He had already figured him out and was batting .370 against him. What Clayton did in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 is irrelevant unless you put him in the time machine and bring that guy in to pitch. Sure, bring in a starter like Scherzer to pitch one inning when he can throw 97mph, but to bring in a guy who struggles in the early innings and can only spin some 89 mph slider up there is (and was) suicide. We had plenty off flame throwers ready to go for one guy, and then Kolarek for Soto. Then Maeda for third guy. Then Maeda and Jansen for 9th inning. This is not second guessing, it was clear at the time. So yes, I blame Doc or whoever made that decision, and not Clayton, just like it was not Kellys fault he came out for the second inning.
And yes, in the end it was the failure of any hitting -Bellinger-Seager-Pollock that doomed us again, just like last couple of years.
Using that same rationale, AJ Pollock, who had a .500 BA against Strasburg should have killed him. Didn’t happen. Small samplings of stats really mean very little. The Nats got hot at the right time and with the worst bullpen in MLB are on the verge of the World Series.
Steve Pearce and Joe Kelly were on the Playoff Roster Bubble in 2018 and were the heroes. It boils down to execution. What if Doc had put in Maeda and Kolarek and Rendon and Soto homered off them? We would be having this same discussion only about different players. Cora made a lot of curious moves in the World Series and they worked… not so much this year!
It’s all about execution.
“It’s all about execution.”
No its not. Its all about putting the team in the best situation to win.
And what’s with this watch and learn response that you made to me.
No I don’t think we would be having the same discussion. If Soto homers off Kolarick, kudos to him. Likewise any right hander vs Rendon.
So wrong.
One thing doomed this team this year.
First name Dave. Last name Roberts.
Mark Mark Mark
Do you even look at stats?
Kershaw had an ERA of 5.79 during the regular season in the first inning of games he pitched. And who cares who made that decision, it was made and results were not good. By the way Roberts said it was a gut feeling, not in those specific words.
The Dodgers bullpen is filled with pitchers that have career extreme splits that will not function properly with the new 3 batter minimum rule. The bullpen DOES need to be fixed. Also your argument about a pitcher that was terrible one year but could be lights out the next year doesn’t hold water because that is short sided. I look at career stats, it gives you a better picture.
Why would anyone want to get Nick Castellanos? he’s got a career OPS of 797. A platoon of Pederson and Pollock in LF would produce as good as or better results than Nick Castellanos. Kris Bryant is another story with that career OPS of 901.
” What about trading Lux, Pederson and another prospect or two for Mookie Betts?”
Now that’s a dope fiend move if I’ve ever seen one.
” Any sane person would not trade the Dodgers bullpen for the Nationals bullpen… yet they are still playing. The National had the WORST BULLPEN in MLB ALL YEAR! Put that in your pipe and smoke it.”
They may have the worst bullpen but they have more elite starting pitchers than the Dodgers have and they are riding those starting pitchers to the world series.
By the way Freese went 4 for 8 in the post season. He didn’t look like he couldn’t start every game. And consider he was most likely going to retire after this season anyways.
All I can say is “Watch and Learn!”
You say you look at career stats, but you ignore Pollock’s and Seagers’ career splits. Both show they are NOT platoon players. The reason the Nats are still playing is not because of their starting pitching or bullpen. It’s because DOC is an idiot and got out-managed once again. It wasn’t because we only scored three runs, because the Nats won two games this series while scoring 3 runs and 2 runs.
But, you are right that we need to add to the pen. But, you’re wrong that it needs to be blown up. Bullpens sucked all around baseball because of the juiced balls. They already changed the ball for the post season, so they’re going that direction for the upcoming year, obviously. Garcia is the one pen piece that will benefit the most from a less juicy ball. If we sign a pitcher, one of May or Gonsolin will wind up in the pen. Alexander will be back next year and so will Ferguson. Those are the lefties and both can get righties out. Look at CAREER SPLITS. Then you have Jansen, Baez, Garcia, Kelly, Gonsolin or May. That’s a pretty good core. Add one elite arm to that group and everyone gets better. You still have Stripling, Kolarek and Sadler on top of that.
Mark, your trade suggestion of Seager, Pederson and a prospect for Bryant is moronic! All by himself Seager’s WAR beats Bryant. He did that coming off two injuries and missing Spring Training entirely. And being on some stupid diet that made him look week all year. On top of that, you’re creating a hole in your middle infield and you’re creating a surplus in the outfield. And since I have vision and I’m used to your shenanigans, you’re obviously planning on benching Pollock in favor of Verdugo. To summarize, you started this exercise trying to be more right handed. Not only did you NOT get more right handed, you created a hole at 1B or middle infield in the process. The only way that trade works is having Bryant at 3rd, Muncy at 2B, Lux at SS and Turner at 1B. Congratulations, you just turned a good defensive infield into crap!
59inarow
What’s so great about Pollock’s 790 career OPS against right handers?
What’s so great about Seager’s 781 career OPS against left handers?
I agree that Doc screwed up. I’m talking about the Nationals now against the Cardinals riding their starting pitching to the world series.
“Alexander will be back next year and so will Ferguson. Those are the lefties and both can get righties out. Look at CAREER SPLITS.”
Ferguson career OPS against RHB 732 against LHB 728. Wrong.
Alexander career OPS against RHB 698. Wrong again.
“Then you have Jansen, Baez, Garcia, Kelly, Gonsolin or May. That’s a pretty good core. Add one elite arm to that group and everyone gets better. You still have Stripling, Kolarek and Sadler on top of that.”
Career OPS against:
Kelly 713. No thanks.
Stripling 708. No thanks.
Sadler 730. No thanks.
Kolarek ? He’s a loogy, that won’t work under the new rule.
Jansen is not what he use to be.
Dude, you’re a freaking idiot. First you say that Seager and Pollock’s OPS that are close to 800 aren’t good, then you say that the pitchers OPS close to 700 aren’t good. Turn this around if you had pitchers with 800 OPS against they would suck even worse. Hitters close to 700 would be even worse. You obviously don’t understand math at all.
“Dude, you’re a freaking idiot.”
Nice, didn’t you get in trouble before for saying something similar to someone else.
“Turn this around if you had pitchers with 800 OPS against they would suck even worse. Hitters close to 700 would be even worse. ”
That’s correct. So what’s your point?
My point is. If a 700 OPS for a hitter is bad, then a 700 OPS for a pitcher is good. How does this not make sense to you?
Let me also point out that you wanted to platoon Seager with Taylor. Seager 781 career OPS against lefties. Taylor’s is 783. So, what does that accomplish other than pissing off Seager and making him worse overall?
If Mark wants to banish me from this site for calling an idiot and idiot, so be it.
Your 1st paragraph, we’re just going to have to agree to disagree. It sounds like you just want to settle for average and I would rather upgrade.
Second paragraph about Seager and Taylor was based on 2019 stats early on in the season and it turned out that I was right as Seager stunk it up against left handers and Taylor did quite well against left handers.
BB – regarding Taylor and Seager, that is contrary to what you said about looking at career stats, which is exactly the point I was making. Regardless, Seager is not a platoon player.
Will Smith, the guy you love to talk about adding to the bullpen has a career OPS of 723 against righties. So I guess he’s a loogy and will no longer be viable under the 3 batter rule, according to your own logic.
Sorry I called you an idiot. What you said was idiotic. Is that better?
Its Will HARRIS that I want the Dodgers to get. I don’t want the Dodgers to get Will Smith for the reason you pointed out and considering the price put together.
I was talking to Mark about acquiring guys via trade or free agency and advised him to look at career stats. Within a season if someone is stinking it up against a lefty or a righty you make a change to put the team in the best position to win.
Oh wait I went back and re-read your post Mark. Are you suggesting the Dodgers get Nick Castellanos and platoon him with Pederson and ditch Pollock? If so I’m for that. But if your suggesting Castellanos take over a spot in the outfield I’m not for that.
I know there are many out there that believe AF should not be re-signed, and many of those do come here to read. But I cannot think of anyone who regularly posts here who actually believes that AF should go. Now Doc Roberts? There are a lot of fans who want to see him managing the Madres or the little people in SF. I am loyal and most say to a fault. Doc has never been a Mensa candidate in the playoffs. Game 5 in the NLDS may have been one of his worst jobs. But as I pointed out before, two HOF LAD managers have made blunders in the playoffs that cost the Dodgers a chance at a WS. I am not in the dugout so I cannot determine if Geren or Honey were just agreeing with Doc or did not put up a viable argument, but there needs to be a change in game strategy for the playoffs. Because I have no idea who could make a better manager, I am okay with Roberts staying in his spot for another year. I am not overwhelmed by the choice, but sometimes it is more beware of what you wish for. Get him a strong bench coach. AF HAS to impress on Doc for a change in game management for the playoffs.
The one outside candidate that I would strongly consider is Joe Espada, Astros bench coach. He will be a manager next year. Two of my son’s very best friends in baseball are Gabe Kapler and Mark Kotsay and are getting attention from some teams, but neither are a fit for the Dodgers. Buck Showalter, Dusty Baker, Joe Girardi, Brad Ausmus, and Ron Washington would not fit in the Dodgers analytical avalanche. The one insider that I would consider is Raul Ibanez, but I would prefer to see him slide into the GM chair. But Ibanez loves his home in Miami, where he spends most of the year. If Kap does not get another manager position this off season, he could also be a GM candidate.
Bill Haselman, bullpen coach? I would prefer him to be bench coach. But yes, Has should be in a Dodger uni next year.
One of the problems I have always had with those who are married to OPS/ERA/WHIP/ OPS+ is that they have no idea what else is going on with that player. It appears with his pending surgeries and his very quick retirement that David Freese had no business on the roster much less a regular in the lineup. He was best used in spots, because the inference was that he was not healthy enough to do more, but too valuable to leave off. It now appears that both were true. David Freese was a Dodger for a very short time, but he will always be one of my favorites.
MT and I will never agree on the bullpen. It was not a good bullpen, which is why so many starting pitchers were needed to supplement a questionable (at best) pen. I would much rather have had Will Smith or Ken Giles pitch the 8th or 9th. Or how about Maeda against Rendon. Kolarek against Soto and May against Kendrick. Then you have Jansen against Zimmerman/Gomes/Taylor, all RHH . With both Urias and Strip warming up…just in case. I just kept reading that CK deserved the chance to pitch the 8th and help his legacy. Nobody’s legacy is more important than a Must-Win elimination game. His legacy was fine with his 3 pitch K to Eaton. Let the other relievers take over from there. Joe Kelly pitched a great 9th, but had no business pitching the 10th with Jansen/Baez/Urias/Strip/May all ready and able. In a must win situation, Doc mismanaged the bullpen, and to not recognize that is wrong minded, even for the strongest Doc supporters. AF needs to make Doc watch those last three innings until he is sufficiently brain drained with a sign over the screen…Never Let This Happen Again.
Totally agree, no one’s legacy is more important. I’m not 100% sure that that was why Doc pitched him in that situation. The reason is that Doc makes bad decisions in the playoffs. The dude loved using 3 pitchers all year, but didn’t want to do it with a 2 run lead in the 8th inning of a must win playoff game with the heart of the order coming up? Wow, what a let down. Thanks AC for picking that scab again.
You can say that Will Smith or Ken Giles could have pitched us through that 8th inning. But, you can also say that Urias, May or Baez could have. But, 1 more good arm is always better than not having one, so I agree with you there. You can’t say the bullpen was bad because a bunch of good starting pitchers were in it. You can’t discount that those good starting pitchers weren’t in the pen. They are good pitchers! They were in the pen. Good pitchers in a pen makes it good! The pen was fine until Doc decided to use Clayton Kerchoke in it!!!
Joe Espada is currently a bench coach. Usually a team won’t let another team interview for a position unless it’s an upgrade. Let’s hope someone makes the mistake of hiring Geren for their manager. Hopefully Farhan hires Geren or Kapler, or better yet, both! I like the idea of having Hasselman promoted to bench coach as he has tons of managerial experience from down on the farm. The right way to groom someone to take over for Doc’s last chance.
Espada reportedly was given permission to interview with Cubs yesterday.the Astros travel day.
That’s an upgrade, to be the Manager. Coming here to be the bench coach would be a lateral move. Perhaps I was unclear.
I guess I wasn’t clear. I was talking about managers and what manager could replace Doc if LAD was looking. The only outside managerial candidate that is being discussed that would interest me was Espada. My choice for bench coach is what I said originally; Bill Haselman.
Totally agree with you, 59, on Haselman.
Please, please, please let Geren find another job and promote Hasselman to bench coach! Maybe he can do a better job talking Robert’s off the ledge.
AC, why have even one liability on the team if it can be avoided? And, Doc is definitely, a liability. Of course, you may disagree with this, but why would you? It’s the most obvious conclusion to most people. I’m not too interested in nice guys and good communicators being the criteria for good management. I don’t want bad behavior in the dugout. I want high in-game IQ.
1. Do not trade Seager.
2 Trade Joc and AJ for a right handed bat.
3. Trade Barnes, Stripling, Kike and Rios for whatever you can get.
4. I will blame Doc for using Kershaw. Yes, they said they would piggyback Beuhler with Kershaw. I agree with that statement if Beuhler had to come out early. Once we got to the 8th. that plan should of went bye bye. You had Maeda and Kolarek for the 8th and Jansen, Baez, and Kelly for the 9th. We had a 2 run lead. Doc does not adjust as the game moves along. He does not take what the game gives him. He has his mind made up and the hell with change. If they keep Doc, they have to get a new bench coach. This combination is not good.
Don’t trade Pollock and his 883 second half OPS. You need more right handed bats, not the same amount.
Pollock, the injury prone player with declining skills — a bad free agent signing.
David Freese was a player. Not a great athlete, but just a solid hitter, who somehow played his best in big games. Why don’t we have more players like that? Does anyone remember Ron Fairly? Good hitter, not great, but purely based on listening to all the games, no analytics then, I knew that virtually every time he came up in a big spot, he hit the ball hard. I haven’t seen many homegrown Dodgers do that in the last decade or more. Is it “LA softness,” whatever that is? Is it poor scouting? We’ve got Turner and Muncy, and they’re usually good in the clutch. We’ve also got a bunch of players who look awful when they come up in key spots, lunging at unhittable pitches and striking out. This is two playoffs in a row now in which for the most part, our hitters looked awful. Facing great pitching, yes, but that’s usually what you face in short playoff series. My thought is that we need an infusion of at least one or two more “professional hitters,” who you actually want up there when the entire game and season is on the line.
For the rest of it, Mr. Timmons is more sanguine than I am about certain players suddenly turning things around and becoming major cogs. It’s possible, of course, but how often has it happened here? Scott Alexader is not very good, in my opinion, I’ve seen enough of him. I’m not a big fan of Garcia, though he occasionally pitches a good inning As I said yesterday, there is not one Dodgers reliever whom I look forward to seeing in the game, except for Maeda, who AF says will start off as a starter again next year. Jansen was used for two innings in the playoffs, pitching the 9th with a 10-4 lead, and coming in for the tenth with a 7-3 deficit. That betokens zero confidence in him. And he is going to start off as the closer next season again? To me, that would indicate that the organization has so much money sunk in him, that they are going to keep plodding along with him. Or that it is too hard and expensive to find a top closer. But having one is almost requisite to winning a title, so we had better try to get one, if that is actually our goal.
I guess that there are two ways to look at this last season. One is that it was a great season, and we just came up a little short; and we should only make a couple of small changes, and we’ll be ready next year to win a title. The other is that there are reasons that we keep coming up short. One of them is that the top teams in the AL are just better, and that we are not going to be winning any World Series until we upgrade our roster. This is certainly my view. It is somewhat of an illusion, pounding out all those wins against the lesser NL clubs. All those great come-from-behind wins this year didn’t mean a thing when we got to the playoffs. Along with that, is the fact that no one would say that we have a great bullpen, and we have only one great starter (unless someone counts Ryu, who just had his best year ever); plus we have only one regular player who barely hit over .300. We can’t have everything, but I think we need some major upgrades in some of it.
A great starter would be important. My worry about spending a fortune on Cole is that he was not great at Pittsburgh, though he always had that ability. He is not Scherzer, who was almost a sure thing as an FA, and a big no-tryfailure for us. But who else is there? Snell? Teams do not trade away top starters. Sometimes you can get someone who is on the cusp, whom you pick out from a weaker club, the way we got Osteen in 1965, or Hooten in the ’70’s. Based on the pickups of Kazmir, Pollock, Kelly, and a few others, I do not see our front office having that particular acumen that Bavasi and Campanis had in that regard. Whatever, we absolutely need another very good pitcher. We need a closer whom we can count on. And we need a strong right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup, and Pollock is not it. We can speculate on who the best choices are, but we cannot fail to obtain those key elements. Other teams get better, other young prospects on other clubs mature. We are not in a vacuum. I don’t care how many games we won this year, we were not the best team in baseball at any point after May. If we want to actually win the title, we need to be the best team, not just a very good one which hopes for erratic or disappointing players to suddenly rise up in the playoffs.
AC. Agree. Nobody DESERVES anything. The bullpen was rested and ready. Pitching CK against Rendon is grounds for impeachment.
I want to retract my “Doc makes bad decisions in the playoffs” statement. Doc makes bad decisions is much more accurate.
Lot to take in, Mark. The Dodgers aren’t interested in trading Seager. He’s the shortstop, coming off two major surgeries and missing the previous year. Under the circumstances he had a pretty good year. I suspect he’ll be really good in ‘20. At some point, he could always move to third. I think Friedman may trade from his core, but not the elite young guys. Maybe Pederson, maybe not. Taylor? Hernandez? I suppose that depends on the return. But I’m guessing there will be a change or two. But what is the deal with age 32? That’s not exactly old, even in baseball years. Lot of really good players over 32, having productive seasons. Hey, if you can solve something at the right price through free agency, do it, it just cost money and not prospects. Maybe they find a right handed bat through trade or they go after Casty. Likely they pursue a young up and coming reliever or two, if possible, through trades. But Friedman isn’t just going to do something to do something. As he said, the team is coming off a 106 win season with a lot of young talent making up the core with more on the way. They have depth, prospects they can trade and financially flexibility … how many teams are in the same position as the Dodgers?
1- The Dodgers announced that Kershaw would follow Buehler in Game 5. It takes him an inning or 2 to get the feel for the breaking pitches that he now relies on, so the 1st inning is one of his worst. Andy McCullough reported in The Athletic this morning that:
“And here is a fourth way: Kershaw struggled in 2019 during the first inning of games. He posted a 5.79 ERA in the first this season. Opposing hitters slugged .494 against him during his first 25 pitches in an appearance. His most acute difficulty this year involved settling in, the exact luxury he was not granted in Game 5. ”
The Dodgers had to know this. This isn’t the Kershaw of 2014. Given what what we know about his struggles in the 1st, it was a bad idea to pitch him out of the ‘pen.
2 – You know that the Moneyball theory of managers is that they don’t really matter. There is a reason that analytics-driven teams mainly avoid hiring experienced managers. They go for younger guys who are good communicators and mainly players’ managers but don’t really run things. I really wonder how much Roberts and his management “ability” contributed to the Dodgers’ success in the past 4 years. Remember, Donny Baseball managed the Dodgers for the 1st three years of the 7 year run of division winners, and our host regards him as an awful manager, and the team’s talent level is undoubtedly higher now than it was 7 years ago.
They say that offensive linemen in football are invisible if they do their jobs, but it’s obvious when they don’t. I suspect that much the same is true with baseball managers. Once the Dodgers get to the big stage, it’s easy to point to Roberts’ errors. I can’t say I’m surprised that he’s coming back for another year, but I am disappointed.
3 – There was no way that Friedman wasn’t coming back. While I’m not a fan of the extreme-analytic style of baseball that the Dodgers now play, I do credit Friedman with modernizing the Dodgers’ management and keeping the team competitive. They are way better at player development then they had been the past several seasons before his arrival.
4 – The ‘pen was a problem. Period. It was the feeling-in-your-gut test. I was nervous almost any time that a Dodger reliever came in – there were none that I had confidence in. OK – so the Braintrust added Joe Kelly this year. Kelly had a typical Kelly season – horrible for a couple of months, really good for a couple of months, couldn’t really be relied on. He had a negative WAR (-.6) for the season. The Dodgers’ best reliever by WAR was Pedro Baez and he crumbled in the postseason this year. They need to fix it but won’t.
5 – They are still too left-handed. So what do they do about it? No to Mookie Betts – he is a free agent after 1 more season and has already said he expect to test the market, so why trade for him? Mark espouses Nick “Iron Glove” Castellanos. Well, maybe, but what do they do with Pollock?
While I doubt that they trade Cory Seager, the numbers don’t lie. He swings at too many pitches early in the count and out of the strike zone. They need to fix this.
6 – I am not optimistic that they sign a big time free agent. That isn’t the Braintrust way. I expect Gerrit Cole to be plying his trade south on the 405. I do think that there will be room in the rotation for another starter. Ryu and Hill are likely gone, leaving 2 spots in the rotation next year. They have Stripling, Urias, May and Gonsolin to fill those spots but it’s obvious the Dodgers don’t really like Stripling starting and the others will all have innings limits. The Dodgers should have done more this year to build Urias’ arm strength and innings total so he could pitch more next year but he only pitched 79 innings this year and has a total of 189 for a 3 year career.
Rick, with #6, time will tell. But based on what you are writing you seem to believe the Dodgers are going to be $30MM to $40MM south of the CBT. I do not believe that, but as I stated, time will tell.
I suspect that they will add a pitcher from outside the organization. I don’t think that it will be Cole – not for the number of years that he will want.
I can see them trying to get Zach Wheeler maybe, Or maybe they’ll try to fix the likes of Chris Archer, Matt Harvey or Shelby Miller. These were all highly touted and they can get them cheaply and try to fix them, or maybe put them in the ‘pen. I think that Wheeler is an interesting fallback.
I’m on the Wheeler wagon. it’s like getting Cole from the Pirates before he turned into Cole on the Astros. Wheeler has great stuff.
If San Diego signs Cole, and adds a little more, they could actually win the division, and the Dodgers would be fighting for a Wild Card spot. If the Yankees get him, they will be the best team in baseball for the next five years. It is a closed system; players you don’t get, go to other teams. If the Dodgers think that they can simply disdain the high-end free agent market, they are going to find that a few other franchises will be consistently better than they are. And being in the 80th percentile of teams does not get you any titles. It really is not that complicated.
Any franchise which wants to actually win titles, has to get a couple of top free agents, or make a couple of big trades for stars, within no more than a five-year period. Even if you somehow manage to have the best farm system, those few other teams will supplement with the star FAs, and beat you. Kastens’ Braves won 14 straight division titles, and never a World Series, until they finally gave in and signed Greg Maddox., to get one out of 14. Outside of the one “we need to convince Time-Warner to pay billions for a TV deal, so we need to inflate the roster right now” signing of Greinke, the owners here haven’t gotten one major FA. It is the height of ownership arrogance to refuse to seriously go after any of them and let them go to other clubs. As far as I am concerned, if the Dodgers don’t sign a major FA or obtain a couple of big-time players via trade this offseason, they will have definitively shown us what they are about, and there is no sense in ever expecting anything different from them, as we watch the Yankees or Astros or a few other teams win all the titles.
Any franchise which wants to actually win titles, has to get a couple of top free agents or make big trades for stars, within no more than a five-year period.
Like the Angels, Padres, D-Bags or Mariners?
I didn’t suggest that doing this automatically guarantees titles, but rather that not doing it makes it very difficult to win one. I suppose it has happened, as with the Giants. But looking around baseball, we know that Houston has Verlander, Cole, and now Greinke (note that I include major trades for stars as comparable to FA acquisitions), NYY has various olayers, Washington has Scherzer, St. Louis has Goldschmidt. We do not have anyone on our roster who was a star FA, or a star acquired in a trade. I just don’t think that with baseball as it is now, a large market franchise can keep passing on every major FA, because they will all end up on other teams, and sometimes help them in a big way.
Your history isn’t quite right. The Braves signed Maddux in 1993 when he was 27. Their 1st of 13 division titles was in 1991, so they got Maddux 2 years in. They won their only Series in 1995. They kept winning the division until 2005. The big change in 1995 was that was Chipper Jones’ rookie season.
Those Braves teams never signed many free agents.
I call BS. Fred McGriff and Marquis Grissom.
BS on you.
Crime dog wasn’t signed as a free agent, He was traded by the Padres to the Braves in 1993.
Grissom was signed by Atlanta in 1995 but hit .258 with 12 HR and OPS’d .693 so he wasn’t a big reason that they won that year. (he was a 1.2 WAR player)
Ryan Klesko was probably the top offensive performer for the 1995 Braves. (not a free agent.)
Maybe I’m just kidding myself but I really believe Doc and AF when they say that in-game decisions are made in the dugout, not by Friedman. They may discuss strategy ahead of time, but Andrew isn’t calling down to Doc and telling him “now is the time to remove Kelly”.
On the other hand, I would really like to know what kind of conversations Doc had with Geren and/or Honeycutt during games. How much input did Honey have on Doc’s bullpen maneuverings? How much input did Geren have on offensive strategy during games.?
For those who want to trade Pollock because it was a bad and expensive signing, what makes you think other teams will want him? I think his playoff performance, although certainly a small sample size, definitely cut down his trade value. He did have half a good season, but he also had half a bad season and a horrendous playoff performance. Is that a player that another team would trade for, knowing he comes with 50 mil left on his contract? I guess if someone has another Homer Bailey contract out there anything is possible, and look how that turned out after we gave him away to KC.
I definitely expect Friedman to get another right-handed bat this winter. I would love for that bat to be Mookie but let’s face it, that’s going to be ridiculously expensive, prospect wise. Might be better to wait another year and then pay whatever we have to in order to get him in free agency. I really love the thought of a Mookie/Verdugo/Belli outfield (in whatever configuration they decide works best).
Boras will totally destroy the baseball world this winter because he’ll hold back all of his better guys until the very end, thereby causing total chaos in front offices and resulting in very nice contracts for his players.
Among the free agents he represents are: Strasburg (if he opts out), Catellanos, Ryu, Martinez, Rendon and Cole.
You are not kidding yourself.
Wow, looks like it’s gonna be another cold stove with all those Boras clients. You’re talking about waiting for Betts, then you don’t include AJ in that outfield. So, you’re gonna be just as right handed as you are now.
Verdugo has very good stats against southpaws so if we get a full year out of him it’s just as good as having another right handed hitting outfielder.
Gonna have to call BS again. AJ’s second half was better than Verdugo’s first half.
Don’t lock yourself into the RHB view point. Many good players have good splits and they are not RHB. Having a player that is balanced goes further than a lop-sided player (not naming names). Then there is defense, speed, arm strength, and SO rate, not to mention high BBIQ. We need a much better scouting team identifying the FA and possible trades for those who are not FA. Talent is the key. Scouting used to be a sought after talent. It is sorely lacking on this scouting staff of the Dodgers. Then, there is ownership, who have refused to sign off on anything but the farm hands. CHEAP CHARLIES!!
Mark is living in a dream world. Without change in the FO and ownership, nothing much will happen with this team except the promotion of prospects and castaways from the FA market.
In a nutshell, I would do the following:
#1 – Sign Cole with a quickness… maybe overpay.
#2 – Sign Castellanos
#3 – Trade Joc, Barnes, CT3 or Kike, and Rios for relief prospects.
Then I’m done!
AF to Boras: Let’s get this done quickly. I’m willing to overpay to sign Cole now.
Boras to AF: I need to talk with my client.
Boras to Cole: Friedman is anxious to get a deal done and says he’ll overpay. Just sit tight. Now I’m going to contact the other 12 GM’s who want to make an offer. No way we sign early. This just drives up the price and we still sign in February.
Boras to AF – Okay 12 Years 480M.
Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding!
As much as I like Rendon, this probably makes the most sense. Pollock and Verdugo can fight for CF / 4th outfielder. Castellanos can start breaking in a 1st baseman’s glove.
You can throw Beaty into that list and any one of those guys should be able to get you bullpen help.
We’ll be lucky to wind up with Wheeler and Ozuna instead.
I would be happy enough with this. And yes, we have to start being willing to give up some of our players or even fairly high-end prospects to fill in weak spots, including the bullpen. I would want to see one high-end pitcher, two or three relievers, including a legitimate closer, and at least one strong right handed hitter, added to our team. The only high-end pitcher I can imagine who is out there, is Cole. To repeat, getting him is a big addition, and also keeps him away from any other team, putting us right back as a serious championship contender for next season.
Without a change in the mentality of ownership, Mark, none of this will happen! Is there any indication that change has taken place? From AF, you would guess it will be business as usual. And, usual is not good enough for a team that is chasing glory. Dodgers are good, not great. Atlanta of the West.
Same situation different results: Game two, inning 8, Nats 4 Dodgers 2, advantage of 2 runs, Martinez brings Scherzer and has 3 K.
Game 5, inning 8, Dodgers 3 Nats 1, advantage of 2 runs, Roberts brings Kershaw and give him 2 HR.
The explanations are left over, the chain is broken by the weakest link.
C Smith / Maldonado (Cole)
1B Muncy
2B Lux
SS Seager
3B Turner / Kike
RF Verdugo
CF Bellinger
LF Joc/ Taylor
SP
1 Cole
2 Buehler
3 Kershaw
4 Urías
5 Maeda / May
SP in October
1 Buehler
2 Cole
3 Urías
4 May
Athletes should not speak out on political issues – see LeBron James.
Just stop talking, LeBron. Stop talking for God’s sake!
They’ve got their following to tend to, 59. How many million Twitter followers does LBJ have? You wouldn’t keep quiet, either. What do these people really know about the Chinese? Not much.
I honestly don’t understand anyone defending Roberts. He made mistake after mistake and didn’t learn from any of his past mistakes apparently.
Bringing in Kershaw to face Eaton. Ok, fine. Kershaw obviously shone in that AB. Struck him out on three pitches. The pitch Rendon hit was actually a nice pitch. Clayton just got beat by a great hitter.
You HAVE to pull Clayton right there though. You have to know he is full of self-doubt. This run of collapses HAS to be in the forefront of his mind as that ball is sailing out. Kershaw is already a fairly emotional guy, and with the season on the line, you cannot leave him in right there. Kolerek has been lights out against SOTO and you still have a one run lead. Hell, bring in Russell Martin to pitch……..I joke but c’mon. Clayton has to be pulled. Feeling be damned.
Lets face it…….the odds of Soto taking Kolerek deep are much, much, much less than taking Kershaw out. Clayton has been giving up a lot of HRs the last couple of years……..and HE JUST GAVE UP ONE ON THE LAST PITCH.
On top of that, bringing Kelly back out is just beyond foolish. I still cannot even understand the thought process. Just in Game 3, which I am not sure Dave even watched apparently, Kelly walked Rendon and Soto, allowed a single by Kendrick to load the bases, wild-pitched Rendon home and walked Suzuki to reload the bases.
Exit Kelly. Never recorded an out I don’t thing.
And you just sit there and let him put runner after runner on base, and the STILL leave him in to face Kendrick who is RED hot?!?!
I don’t understand the logic that there is nobody to replace Roberts.
Boone came out of the broadcast booth, never managed anything, and Id say he is doing pretty well. Should be AL MOTY with all the turmoil they have survived all year.
Roberts wasn’t exactly what Dodgers fans were clamoring for when he got hired a few years ago. I am not even sure he was seriously on anyone’s radar, and now he is absolutely irreplaceable somehow after blowing 17 and now 19. Dodgers were just over matched by the Sox last year.
I do know that organizations and employees seldom change without a change in leadership. Keeping the status quo likely will result in the same results.
I am not for some retread like Dusty, Showalter, etc. But this is supposed to be Friedman’s expertise. This is his job. Find smart and imaginative baseball people. There literally have to be dozens and dozens of people out there that could step in and win 98+ games with this team. Hopefully, many that can manage tight games with non-bonehead decisions as well.
Sure, they could sign better players for spots. Cole, Rendon, trade for whoever.
If the guy at the top doesn’t use those guys, or usually your lesser players, correctly or put them in the best possible situations to be successful, we get 2017 and 2019 Dodger playoff baseball.
As the Friedman, I can take him or leave him.
He surely has done some great things. He surely has done some terrible things.
I think where AF shines is his sub-MLB transactions. Many of his MLB level deals have not been good. Too many IMO. From Latos, Wilson, to Pollack and Kelly. Just bad.
The fact is AF took over a pretty good team with some core prospects in the bank and working through the system. He obviously has kept the farm strong and made it stronger. Yes, NL West titles in each of his 5 years, but they won the prior 2 without AF there so its not like he built the Astros or Cubs from cellar-dwellers.
Having a great farm is obviously a nice luxury but it reminds me someone that has a fortune in comic books or Beanie Babies in boxes in the garage, and refuses to sell them as his house is being foreclosed on because he can’t make the payment.
Everyone, and mean everyone, that saw the season knew the bullpen was an issue. There is NOBODY that would possible see Jansen, Kelly, or anyone really come through the gate and say……..OK….thank god…..we got this. Nope.
Stats are stats and I don’t care about rankings. When you give up an ER, it matters WHEN that ER was given up.
Clayton ONLY gave up 2 ER in Game 5, but they turned the entire season into the toilet.
Something has to change at a philosophical level. Maybe its less reliance on platoons and real positions for guys. A real batting order that is consistent to some degree. Having 19 guys that can play a position is great when there is an injury, but damn…….can’t we just get the greatest player we can afford at each position??! and not a group of mediocre players all over?
I just hope the Dodgers don’t go into 2020 like the Giants did a few years back thinking they were solid outside of a closer. They signed Melancon and it was World Series time again……didn’t happen and never been the same since.
BleedBlue, that is exactly what the Dodgers think. They are short sighted and they haven’t realized it for the last 3 years! Success makes you dopey. Cheap ownership allows you to pick the trash that others leave. Sure, the Dodgers will be a good team next season, but they will be the same team that loses, again.