Before game 5 with the Nats, I admit I had periods of apprehension that Nats would win. By the time I turned on the TV, Kike had just hit his homerun. 3 runs of Strasburg in 1 plus innings. Now I was feeling pretty positive. But, as we all know, the Dodgers lost – – – I was shocked, to say the least. I was as disappointed as I could be. Immediately, the thoughts began churning, how could we possibly lose that game? Not now, not this year? The Dodgers were supposed to win it all this year. I felt crappy.
The next morning, the sun rose like it always does here in Southern California. I had work to do. Still shocked and disappointed, but it wasn’t long before I remembered that my life is full of more important things than who wins and loses a game that I’m not playing in. Nothing that I do can or could affect the outcome of the game. Doesn’t matter if I wear my lucky socks or yell at the TV. Mind you, baseball is an extremely important part of my life. I’ve had a love affair with the game and the Dodgers for 60 some odd years. I have spoken before about how much I love this game. Additionally, in any sort of competition, I hate to lose, whether in trial or in playing a board game with my 5-year-old grandson. If I lose in court, I realize that I can’t spend all of my time wallowing in disappointment or worrying about who was at fault. Nope, I have to move on, because as soon as I return to the office there will be another client waiting for me because they think that I offer the best solution for them to solve their legal issues. I also hate it when the Dodgers lose. But, like in life, losing and failure is a big part of baseball.
As Roger Kahn so eloquently wrote: “You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat. Losing after great striving is the story of a man, who was born to sorrow, whose sweetest songs tell of saddest thought, and who, if he is a hero, does nothing in life as becomingly as leaving it.”
The Dodgers lost . . . afterwards, the blog world has lit up with fans who have to access blame to someone. It was Doc’s fault . . . Kershaw is a choke artist . . . so are Bellinger and Seager. Give us their heads on a platter . . . and on and on it goes. I don’t care to get involved in that type of discussion. Mind you, I don’t cluck my tongue at those that do. I come to baseball because of love. I’m convinced it is the hardest game to play and it has so many different nuances that make it the great game it is. I love watching it, listening to it, talking about it, writing about it and learning about it. I do not come to it to make myself angry or distressed. No, it brings me joy and I would never trade that joy for anger or bitterness. It’s not worth it.
But, doggone it the Dodgers still lost. Bummed but that’s the way it is. Losing is part of baseball. Having nothing really profound to say about the loss, I thought I would just share some quotes about losing and baseball, perhaps to cheer you up or maybe it’s just therapeutic for me.
“Losing is only temporary and not all-encompassing. You must simply study it, learn from it, and try hard not to lose the same way again. Then you must have self-control to forget about it.” John Wooden
“You never know what’s going to happen… And that’s the fun of it!! That’s what baseball’s all about!!” Keiichi Arawi
“All I know is when we win a game, it’s a team win. When we lose a game, it’s a team loss.” ‑ The Bad News Bears
“Watching other teams in the World Series is like watching somebody else eat a Hot Fudge Sundae.” ‑ Joe Torre
“Winning isn’t everything to me, but it is a close second. Losing isn’t something that I can just brush off and fake a smile to hide my frustration. It’s that will and determination that I hope will get me where I want to go.” Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
“I never thought of losing, but now that it has happened, the only thing is to do it right. That’s my obligation to all who believe in me. We all have to take defeats in life.” Muhammad Ali after losing to Ken Norton.
“No matter how good you are, you’re going to lose one‑third of your games. No matter how bad you are you’re going to win one‑third of your games. It’s the other third that makes the difference.” Tommy Lasorda
“Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.” Yogi Berra
“Yesterday’s home runs don’t win today’s games.” Babe Ruth
“It is dangerous to spring to obvious conclusions about baseball or, for that matter, ballplayers. Baseball is not an obvious game.” Roger Kahn
“Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand.” Leo Durocher
“Worrying about things you can’t control is a waste both on the baseball field and in life.” Tom SawyersGHTS:
Some Additional Random Thoughts
I’m not interested in deciding whether or not Dave Roberts must be fired simply because he made some mistakes in 2 or 3 of 167 games played this year. I don’t even understand why that discussion takes up so much of our time. He’s not the perfect manager (who is?), but Roberts is the classic example of a gamer – someone once said “The worst part of Roberts being tagged as one of the new generation run amok is that he was the traditionalist’s ideal: a player who relished headfirst slides, who sacrificed his body for any ball in the gap and who stole the most important base in the history of baseball. He didn’t make his MLB debut until 27, didn’t have a regular starting job until 30, and was usually one of the least naturally talented players in the clubhouse. But he did have speed, determination, and personality. Like his former teammate Alex Cora, Boston’s already‑beloved manager, Roberts was the kind of player you’d add to the payroll just to have around the team.” Moreover, Roberts became the first manager in MLB history to lead his team to division titles in each of his first four full seasons at the helm. He and Tommy Lasorda are the only rookie managers in franchise history to guide the Dodgers to a division title. He beat out Gabe Kapler, Bud Black, Darin Erstad, and Dave Martinez, among others for the job. Why do you want to get rid of such a man? For whom? Dusty Baker, Joe Torre(been there and done that and he was awful for the Dodgers), Mike Scioscia or ??? Personally, I would not mind having Doc around for a few more years.
“A baseball manager is a necessary evil.” ‑ George ‘Sparky’ Anderson
I’ve also decided that I’m not going to lose sleep over the decisions regarding Kelly and Kershaw. I remain a believer that baseball is a team game. Taken in isolation, we can analyze these decisions ad nauseum. But these decisions were not made in isolation. Any of a hundred different events could have changed the loss into a victory. Baseball doesn’t have its version of Eddie Feigner of the King and his Court fame. Feigner was probably the greatest softball pitcher of all time. For years the King would travel around the world with his catcher, first baseman, and shortstop and the 4 of them would play against full 9 player teams and routinely, if not always, beat these teams. Feigner could pitch from second base and still strike out the players on the other teams. He would also pitch from center field and be able to strike batters out. The King and his Court were softball’s version of the Harlem Globetrotters, possessing incredible talent and traveling all over bringing happiness and joy to young and old alike. Baseball has no Eddie Feigner. It’s a game that requires all 9 players, as well as those on the bench.
As to Seager and Bellinger, It’s not my decision, but I would hold on to them for at least another year. They are young, good and have tremendous potential for growth. Personally, I think Seager is better than Kris Bryant.
“I’ve come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen.” Bob Lemon The Dodgers seem to be doing fine on the friend front. However, they could use a good bullpen. That probably has to occur by acquiring players from outside the organization, as other than perhaps De Geus (who is probably a year away), the minors have no pitchers ready to help at the major league level. I also think that it’s probably time to move on from Yimi Garcia and Dylan Floro. I’m ambivalent about Baez, but I still hold out hope for Scott Alexander and Caleb Ferguson.
“The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it’s a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good and that could be again.” James Earl Jones
“When you start the game, they don’t say ‘Work Ball!’ They say, ‘Play ball!” ‑ Willie Stargell
That’s the great thing about baseball is that there will always be another game. Pitchers and catchers report in February and then, just as trees and flowers begin to blossom, hope springs eternal as there will be another game, and another chance to win. You know what? I’ll be there, loving the game and the Dodgers as much as I ever have. Won’t you join me? In the meantime, let’s not worry or fret over those things we can’t control.
2D2 – Wow…Great effort… I save very few of these, but this a keeper that I will refer to for God knows how long… Thanks again…
My wife lifted the suicide watch on me a couple days ago, but I’m still mumbling incoherently once in awhile to myself ( thank God with no replies)…
Got in a short comment yesterday directed at AC, but as far as entering the LADT frey more, I’ll just wait… Still sorta like playing dodgeball in a mine field
I turned 73 a couple weeks ago and in my mind, I’m running out of time… 1988 was one of my best sports years ever with my beloved Dodgers and Fighting Irish winning titles… I made the NCAAF playoffs last year and the Dodgers another trip to the WS… Being a realist, the Irish will only have a chance in the future if we can stockpile red shirts with hotel mgmt. aspirations… That leaves my Blue…
I’m happy they retained Doc… No talk of trading Seager and Belli por favor!!! Geren and Honey put to pasture??? Really??? Why???
We’ll see about trades and the like as the Winter meetings get close…
P.S. Dodger Mom, you were a breath of fresh air and I’m looking forward to seeing your takes or questions as the year rolls on…
Baseball was, is and always will be to me the greatest game in the world…Babe Ruth
2D2, excellent post to bring us all back to reality. Baseball is a game. A GREAT game, but a game nonetheless. I bury myself in books and sports (principally LAD and USC) to get away from real life problems we recognize and/or experience every day. I look forward to retirement so that I can work with the less fortunate children who could care less if AJ Pollock struck out 11 times in 13 ABs.
But that being said, I do love my baseball, and I believe if you are not moving forward you are falling behind. AF has done a magnificent job of navigating this proud organization from an inherited financial mess because of bloated contracts and a bereft minor league system, to an organization that has remained relevant, became financially sustainable, and rebuilt the minor league system into a legitimate pipeline to MLB players.
I have no idea who a better manager, not currently employed, could possibly be. Doc is not perfect. Far from it. His misgivings seem to be much more pronounced during the playoffs. Just like players press, so do managers. Doc knows that he needs to win the Championship, and he tends to overthink and overmanage. He wants to force things. Is he capable of changing his overzealous practices? Maybe, maybe not.
Arguably the greatest LAD Dodger manager in history once chose to let Stan Williams continue to struggle in the 9th inning while Don Drysdale was warm in the bullpen in a 1962 Must Win playoff game with the hated Giants. Lasorda/Niedenfuer/Clark? I agree that Doc cannot be compared to either HOF manager, but it does show that even the best make bonehead decisions at the most critical times. Lasorda did not win a WS until his 5th year in 1981, and even then the Dodgers did not deserve to be in the playoffs much less the WS. If it were not for the mid-season strike, the Dodgers would have missed the playoffs.
Dodgerrick wanted JDM at the trade deadline in 2017. The DBacks stole him from Detroit. LAD could easily have made a better trade alternative than did AZ. They chose not to. Would JDM have made a difference in the 2017 WS? Possibly, but we will never know. We do know that the offense was MIA in that WS, and JDM could possibly have made a difference. Would Nicholas Castellanos have made a difference this year? Again, we will never know.
But what we do know is that a set of broad shoulders begging the team to climb aboard is not currently on the team. I never believed it was Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? We know it is not Kershaw. It apparently is not Cody or Corey. Maybe it is Anthony Rendon, or Gerrit Cole & Walker Buehler, or Alex Verdugo, or Castellanos, or JDM, or three lock down late inning high leverage relievers that nobody will ever agree on. Almost every one of us has brought up Aaron Bummer. His name first came up last winter when the ChiSox were trying to get Joc Pederson and Hahn would not include Bummer in any trade. He was a relatively unknown at that time, and now some think he will be traded without a significant (!!!!) overpay. Hahn thought that Jace Fry was enough.
The reason why I think this winter is different and that a high cost FA may be acquired is because this is the year that the organization has been working towards financially. As much as the ownership group has stated that they do not want to exceed the CBT, they have also stated as many times that they want to be at the CBT level. That premise has me hoping that at least one of Cole and or Rendon could be Dodgers next year. Is Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant a potential trade target. Trevor Bauer? If Cole and his agent, Scott Boras, price themselves out of a timely contract, will the Dodgers look at Zack Wheeler? Jake Odorizzi? Will they look at “fixing” their bullpen with Will Smith or Will Harris. Will they try to trade for Ken Giles or Jose Leclerc? How about Michael Lorenzen who I think will become a dominant high leverage late inning reliever next year. There are options that are visible, and dozens more that are not. There is $45MM to $50MM available to move forward and go bold.
The Dodgers had eight players make their MLB debut this season, and rookies Matt Beaty, Gavin Lux, Dustin May and Will Smith were included on the NLDS roster.
“The future is really bright,” Bellinger said. “We saw Beaty, Rios, Lux, May, Gonsolin, Will, come up and do big things this year. And there’s still more in the Minor Leagues that can come up and show up, too. So that’s pretty promising. We’re going to be good for a long time.”
Last year when they decided to keep Roberts by extending his contract, I thought they wanted to show stability to potential free agents. I guess I’ll accept that line of reasoning again this year. The two big ones, Harper and Machado weren’t the best fits. We test drove Machado and didn’t like the feel. Harper, left handed would not help balance the lineup. Both were over-hyped due to their age and success early in their careers. Relatively inexpensive signings of Kelly and Pollock pushed us up against the CBT. The timing and circumstances weren’t great for the big free agent plunge.
This year, there’s some intriguing right handed bats, mostly corner types. Could this be the year to infuse some talent from outside the organization to put them over the top?
AF’s first year was a quick change in direction. He did the unthinkable and traded Matt Kemp and a slew of others redesigning the team on the fly. New contract, another flurry of moves? He is sure setup to do so with all the lefty talent he has.
A Rendon signing? A trade for Arenado? A Josh Donaldson fall back plan? Trade some of those lefty bats for Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer?
I think this off-season is going to be different. I’m interested to hear what he has to say today when he addresses the media.
I watched the extra innings game between the Yankees and astros last night and could not stop thinking that if either team had Kershaw the game would have been over a lot quicker
My morning coffee and fruit crumble just out of the oven, now taste so much better after reading your excellent , article 2D2. I loved all of the baseball quotes, my favorites being Lasorda’s and Muhammad Ali’s. Yes, Baseball is a hard game with all its successes and defeats. I do not assume to have the expertise or knowledge to analyze who the Dodgers should trade or trade for, but just a feeling for who in my humble opinion has potential to help the team. Along with talent, character is very important to me. This may sound funny, but I love a pitcher who is also a good fielder and bunts well. Thanks 2D2 for your input.
My research into the Dodger player development department has lead me to believe that they value young men of character. Like you, I too love pitchers that can field their position and handle a bat. That’s what I appreciated so much about Fernando and Grienke. Week hitting pitchers have always puzzled me. Typically, growing up, the good pitchers are quite often also the best hitters. Somewhere along the way, they lose that ability. I don’t understand why.
Funny story, my friend, an All-World softball pitcher and a pretty good hitter, ripped a double off the fence against Eddie Feigner. Feigner stopped the game walked out to second base and shook his hand.
Everybody needs to get over the Dave Roberts stuff and move on. He’s coming back and that’s a good thing. Consider all the moves he made throughout the summer that worked out well and led to Dodgers victories.
Everybody has analyzed what went wrong, time to move on. The future is in front, not in back. Some have suggested radical moves, blow things up with dramatic changes, but that’s dysfunctional thinking and would make matters worse, not better.
Good column today.
I can’t help but notice there are two camps here: those who use this site as a place to root for the Dodgers and be fans, and those who come here to discuss – to play armchair GM, to argue, criticize whomever bum didn’t perform, formulate whacky trades for Mitch Haniger, etc. To each his own.
More morning brain dump…..
In British parliamentary politics, it is customary for the PM to resign when consensus breaks down, when a precipice has been reached and there is no longer confidence in that respective PM’s leadership. Ken Rosenthal had some good insight in The Athletic. Even if Roberts continues, I think Roberts has partially and potentially permanently eroded the confidence that fan base and even the team have in him as a leader. I thought his best quality as a manager had always been his ability to get the players to buy into the Dodger system, to get all on the same page. I think that’s compromised now. How does Kenley feel about being totally dissed? Are some of the same doubts that we fans are having about Robert’s ability to make the right decisions at the right time swirling around the minds of the players? If the players don’t have total confidence in their manager, that can seriously effect their own confidence. I team has to believe it can win. If there are doubts, they often manifest in reality.
The problem is stability and continuity and that system that the Dodgers put in place. Getting a new manager, even assuming there’s a better candidate out there, would feel like partial organizational tear down.
We also fall into the same trap that ensnared Roberts (and countless suckers who lost their a**es betting on that gutshot straight) by relying on emotion or sentiment rather than rational statistical probability. That was the whole point behind Moneyball: take the irrational attachments to the way things are done and look what the data say will mostly likely happen. When Roberts put Kershaw in, that was an emotional decision. It was Kershaw, the franchise player for the Dodgers for a decade and a future HOF. It would’ve been a great storybook ending to a decisive game had he won, but it was storybook crafting and not a rational decision. I cannot believe that AF was a party to that decision. If so, it would be really out of character for him.
Assuming more of a rational approach to winning championships, I’m over the “just get to the playoffs…anything can happen” strategy. Yes, that’s true, but it really goes against the very idea of increasing the probability of success. If you’re only content to just get to the playoffs and leave the rest to chance, you increase the PROBABILITY that you will go home disappointed. If you do a little extra to get a key player or potential difference maker, winning is certainly not assured, but you increase the PROBABILITY you will win the WS. It really is an odd take for a FO that makes nearly every other decision with the goal of increasing in small marginal ways the probability of being successful.
Another take on the rational vs. emotional. So, tell me again why Scioscia would be a good Dodger manager? I understand that he is a former player for the Dodgers and was on that 88 team that last won the WS. And? What bearing does his having played for the Dodgers 31 years ago have on his ability to any more effective today than any other manager? Again, that’s sentiment. It’s a nostalgia hire.
One more mini rant – There’s the notion here to some extent, but especially among the idiots on other blog sites, that this is all by design, a cynical plot to make the Dodgers just good enough to make the playoffs to keep the gullible fans filling the coffers of rich owners without them having to spend money on good players that will actually win the WS. It’s all about the bottom line for billionaires.
dumb….I think the overall value of the organization would increase if they were to win one or two WS to go along with their consistent winning seasons. I don’t think the value of the organization comes from it being a cash flow business. It’s an investment built in part on the perceived value of the brand. …and I’m sure merchandise sales would get a nice bump with the WS.
as Forrest would say, that’s all I have to say about that
And some come here to do both. Appreciate your input.
I always believe it is important to say thank you when you appreciate something. So, thanks for all the fun, education, ideas, and opinions I get from this site. I have only posted a couple times, but I read it every day. Thank you Mark and AC for providing such a fun diversion and sound ideas.
I wanted to wait awhile after the bomb hit to gather information from others and let me hysteria wind down so I could at least try to look at things rationally (at least rationally from my viewpoint). So, here are a few thoughts/reminders that basically just sum up what others have written.
GENERAL TO THE SPECIFIC:
-The best thing about Dodger baseball is it has nothing to do with your family, health, job and future. It is an escape and I love it for that. I can plug in as a timeout from dealing with less fun things in my life. No matter how they do each year, I just follow them, have fun, and get ready for the next season (been doing this for 67 years). Please don’t take being a fan too serious, as Dodger fans we are really fortunate and spoiled. Why?
-Each of the last seven years and for most of the last 60 we know our team will be in the
hunt. We have something to be excited about in the off-season (trades/signings) and
can follow our team each day as their games mean something. What a fun and satisfying hobby to have! We could be Baltimore fans and have Boston and New York to look forward to every year, we could be Detroit fans and watch out team age with no new blood coming in and then fall off a cliff, or we could be San Diego fans and stay at the bottom of the cliff year after year.
-I don’t want to form many opinions yet as we are working in the dark until the AF decision is made so I am going to take my time, it is a long off-season and quick decisions are usually wrong.
-My main question is how can so many people be so wrapped up in a team that their emotions dictate that it would be a great idea to “blow-up” a 106 win team the very next year, even with a relatively young core. Do you think the Orioles fans would be calling for a “blow-up”? Their team already blew up and look where they are (the Cubs panicked and are now paying for it)!
-I am ok with AF and Doc coming back because there are no guarantees the next will be better (please remember FOX ownership and the parking lot king) and they have at least shown that we get a good team to follow each year. Many of you will not like my saying this but I would take seven straight years in the play-offs versus going all out for one year and then dropping back to mediocre (see Miami). I just like to have something to look forward to every year and we do!!
-Too long winded, sorry, so I will end but maybe come back later when the dust settles.
-I do have one more thought. If I am a manager and I send my pull hitter up and the entire roster of the opposing team in standing in right field, I think I might invent a new strategy called the bunt or drag bunt. If the ball goes down the third base line the only person who can field it is the foul territory ball kid and I would gamble on him not making the play in time. Rediscovering the bunt would sure mess up all the shifts and I bet pitchers never work on covering that. Boy would Brett Butler love to have a shift!
Brett Butler, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn. They would all hit 400 today with all the shifts going on.
Brett Butler??? What about Pete Rose
Maybe not, since the other teams wouldn’t play with the shift against them
No they wouldn’t
“Losing is only temporary and not all-encompassing. You must simply study it, learn from it, and try hard not to lose the same way again. Then you must have self-control to forget about it.” John Wooden
This is a great quote from the Wizard of Westwood. And, here is why I am so critical of Roberts. He hasn’t learned from his past post season pitching moves. He has an excuse for 2017 WS. He had minimal experience in the post season and I believe major influence with pitching management from FZ. In the 2018 WS continued to make mistakes in decisions and communication (his supposed strength)with his pitchers. But, Boston was just the better team and his decisions were less criticized. This year in NLDS Roberts exhibited that he didn’t study the situations he might face, didn’t learn from past mistakes and did his best to lose the same way again. I would really like to see Roberts replaced, but with who? That’s the problem. Not discussed much is the input from Geren and Honeycutt. Were they involved at all in Robert’s inexcusable decisions? Maybe, Roberts needs a bench coach that can better advise him in bullpen strategy. I would like to see the Dodgers make some FA and trade moves to improve the team, but the improvements will be mute come the post season with Roberts in charge. Let’s hope he can actually learn from his past post season failures in 2020.
This is a good idea. Maybe if he had a bench coach who was actually a wizard with in game tactical moves whispering in his ear when he was about to do something stupid, that would fix his one glaring weakness.
Still….Roberts should at least have done his homework and known the better matchups.
Anyone that knows anything about baseball knows that Roberts is a mediocre manager at best.
I guess that is a tribute to Andrew Friedman and the Front Office. They have assembled such an amazing array of talent that even MEDIOCRE managers can win 106 games. Incredible. Oh… and that Manager of the Year Award in 2017 must have been bogus.
Here are some of the National League Managers of the Year: Jim Frey, Hal Lanier, Felipe Alou, Don Baylor, Larry Bowa, Jim Tracy, Kirk Gibson, Matt Williams . I think that all of these were ultimately fired at least once, if not more. It is a nice honor, but not at all proof that the manager is very good. If your team has a very good year, and you haven’t won before, you usually win this. Torey Luvello won in ’17, and Brian Snitker of Atlanta in ’18.
Yes, baseball is just a game. I am 79. I do not know how much time I have to see a Dodger WS victory. Got to fill 4 hours of my day with something else. Do you think the Dodgers will try to move Jansen? Ferguson, Gonsolin and Maeda could be three good pieces for the bull pen. Are there any farm kids that may be ready to help out in the bull pen?
Of course , sports doesn’t really matter. But then of course it does, as a very necessary escape from the rest of things. That is why so many people go to the games, watch them, and care so much about their favorite college or pro team. There have been years when I was so fed up with the Dodgers’ ownership (later O’Malley, Fox, McCourt), that I stopped watching. Of course, I had my other favorite team, UCLA, to follow, but now their football program is awful, and the basketball program remains irrelevant on the national scene. So if I give up the Dodgers, I do not follow sports, because I do not care a bit if Alabama beats Clemson, or Duke beats North Carolina in basketball, or whether the Rams or Lakers win. Others do, of course.
The problem I have with the Dodgers is my very real sense that the ownership is not nearly as committed to trying to win titles (which after all should be the paramount goal) as various other franchises. There are too many data points to support that analysis, to just ignore it. Like all of you who have followed baseball and the Dodgers for a long time, you know that we will not win every year, and you know that there will be bitter last game defeats. But there is always next year to get better–unless you decide that it is really the same thing, that the commitment to going for titles is simply not there. I’ve already gone over how I think that we passed on Verlander, Yelich, others, because ownership was more concerned about costs, so other teams went after and landed them.
Unless this changes, we will not win titles, not even one. The idea that if we just win the division and make the playoffs, one of those years we will get lucky, and win the title, is both insulting to the fans, and wrong. If there is always at least one team which has better players than you do, you will very likely never get past them. We would not have beaten Houston or New York in the World Series this year, even though it was fun to fantasize about it from the comfort of the regular season. And we will not be better than they are next year, either. We had the opportunity to have the most powerful franchise, but the owners did not want that, they wanted to maximize profits as much as possible. It is hard to argue otherwise, over the last few seasons of Guggenheim ownership.
So it’s about the ability to look forward to next season. I had that when I was a boy following the early LA Dodgers. We didn’t always win, but we had a very smart front office which was able to make important trades to bolster key areas. Trades are not very common now in baseball, and as I’ve said before, the way we build our roster with young prospects and renovations, gives us very little in trade chips. So the free agent market is imperative to use, but we have not. We may well go after a big FA this year, but that doesn’t mean we will get them. I really have no faith that that we will do what I think is necessary, which is to revamp and rebuild this team.
This is probably a negative perspective on it, but I think we have many question marks. We have one potentially great starting pitcher in Buehler. Ryu was very good much of this year, will we sign him? If not, that leaves us with Kershaw, who seems really to be a #4 type pitcher now. The other possibilities that people come up with, are all rookies, or unproven people. Urias may or may not be a very good starter, we have not seen it yet. May, Gonsolin have talent, but so do many pitchers on many clubs, who take years to become very good, or maybe never do, like Stripling, who was touted, too, or others we can recall. We need at least one top starter, maybe two. If we start next year with a staff of Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Gonsolin, we will drop back into the pack. There may be six or so teams in our league with better staffs than that.
The bullpen needs major restructuring. Name me someone in our bullpen whom you have faith in, in crucial moments. I can’t name one. We have no closer, we have no set-up man, unless Maeda wants to take that role, and even if he does, I don’t know that he would be as effective over a long season. Otherwise, we have various guys who can throw hard, like Kelly and Ferguson and Floro,, but who are wild and walk people, or else throw straight fastballs which get crushed. We have Baez, who sticks around, is never terrible, is never great, and doesn’t stand up too well in big situations. I don’t know what we have in the minors, but we need three or so new relievers, I think.
As to the lineup, with have a nucleus, but Turner will miss half the season again. Do we have a reliable catcher who can hit at least a bit. Probably, but not for certain. What is our outfield? Does Verdugo come back strong? The absolute failure of our team to hit in the last two playoffs series (Red Sox in ’18, Washington ’19) is sobering–that is , if the goal is to win the title, not just the division. I wonder if this basic group has had its run, and we need a new configuration. We won’t get that, of course. On the more optimistic side, maybe Lux will come into his own (I remember when people were demanding that we bring him up). Maybe Seager will finally have a big year, though his absymal performance in the playoffs was very disappointing. Will Pederson finally hit over .250, or is that his ceiling? Same with Kike’. We need at least one more big bat in that order, a veteran who can hit against any pitcher, who can turn those men on base into runs, not waste more potential rallies.
Finally, I very much agree with the comments of Dodgerpatch above, about the likely inability of Roberts to get past this disgraceful managing performance. This is more than, “oh, he made some mistakes,” kind of thing. Taken in conjunction with his previous mistakes in the past playoffs, it seems very clear that he has a kind of stubbornness, an inability to alter his preconceived plans; plus one has a sense that he doesn’t know how to evaluate the relative talents of his relievers in various game situations. This is not going to change. Every comment he makes after one of these debacles is that he was really liked ___ in that situation, he felt good about it. I still can’t get over him saying that he left Kelly in after a walk and double, then had him intentionally walk the next batter, and that he was “hoping that we could get a ground ball there.” With Kelly, who walks people, and whose hit balls usually go up in the air? The only hope there, with men on second and third and no one out, was to bring in Jansen, and hope that he had his better stuff, and could strike out a couple of batters or pop them up. Or put in Kolarek to face Soto again, and then Jansen. Do not walk anyone on purpose to load the bases. I’ve seen Roberts make the wrong decision almost every time. You can’t get out of bad situations all the time, but you can give yourself as much chance as possible. Roberts does not , that is how he blew the lead in Game 4 of last year’s World Series. As compared to someone like Bochy or LaRussa, he seems almost transfixed on the bench. Why anyone hoping for a title would want him back, is a puzzle to me. Could we end up with someone worse? I suppose so, but if you have a good poker hand that is not going to win the pot, why not draw from the deck and hope to possibly get a better one? That is what the Yankees did by firing Girardi and getting Boone.
At this time, I do not feel like revisiting the same things with the same manager and mostly the same personnel as before. No, of course, do not blow up the roster, but how about some sober reflection about its weaknesses, and efforts to fix them? Sending Roberts back out there again does not inspire. I think that the only way he could win a title is to become a “push button manager”; i.e,, have so much talent that the choices were obvious. I will make a prediction that if we do not make major changes, we will be eliminated early in the playoffs once again, by what will be a better team by that point: Braves or Cardinals or Brewers or Nationals.
Busy, and haven’t read through today’s posts, so I don’t know if anyone posted Molly Knight’s piece in the The Athletic (subscription required). See the link that follows:
https://theathletic.com/1292237/2019/10/14/dodgers-offseason-to-do-list-spend-money-sign-gerrit-cole-and-get-real-with-clayton-kershaw/
Really good stuff, but like I said, I’m busy, and don’t have time to comment. But most of you are smarter than I, so I’m sure you can do without my two cents, which is about what my thoughts are worth, if that much.
I agree with Molly Knight and have said the same thing for the last few days (as have others). We armchair GMs recognize a way to upgrade the product on the field, without hurting the minor league system. The Dodgers MUST NOT be outbid by ANY TEAM for Gerrit Cole. I know it is a dope fiend move, and a contract we fans and LAD are going to regret half way through the contract. But by that time, LAD will be just overpaying for a #4 or #5, just like they are now with CK. If they can free up enough other salary to also sign Rendon, they should do that as well. This is the year the Dodgers are in a position to spend. They will lose two draft picks, so be it. Where they will be drafting is not enviable anyway.
But get ONE significant FA (at least).
It is a key point. If you are to ever get a big-time FA, you have to overpay, at least in terms of years. If your goal is to never do that, you will never get one. It is sort of a paradox, but it is how baseball is now. I think that the better owners and GMs realize that you are usually (Scherzer is the exception) going to get to a time when your high-priced FA is not paying off any more. But if he pays off for five or so years, it is worth it, I think.
Keith Law on two Dodger prospects and one old one:
Dodgers prospect Gerardo Carrillo was throwing 96-100 mph in relief to go with a power curveball at 79-81. He has been a starter but his body and delivery both point to the bullpen: he’s listed at 5-foot-10 and 154 pounds, and he has a stiff front leg at landing with some head violence. He was awful early in the year, but after a stint on the injured list came back throwing harder and threw a lot more strikes. He could be a potent late-game reliever.
The Dodgers gave Venezuelan catcher Diego Cartaya $2.5 million to sign in July of 2018, and it looks like money well spent at this point given his progress at the plate and behind it. He has a really good, strong right-handed swing and had no trouble with multiple pitchers throwing around 90-91 mph, crushing a triple to right-center in his last at-bat. He showed soft hands behind the plate and a lot of energy, notable since this was a 9 a.m. start at the end of a long season.
Texas acquired right-hander A.J. Alexy in July 2017 in the Yu Darvish trade, and the former Pennsylvania high school star has developed into a potential back-end starter prospect. Alexy worked from 92-95 mph in his start on Wednesday, mixing in an above-average changeup at 84-86. His slow curveball is fringy and his fastball might be too straight, but there’s enough to work with here given his arm strength and chance for a plus pitch with that changeup, along with a delivery that keeps him very online to the plate.
Rick Honeycutt is moving into a special assistant role with Dodgers. Mark Prior the new pitching coach. Apparently, AF is also staying.
Friedman, as anticipated, will be back.
Roberts, as feared and dreaded by me, will be back.
Honeycutt, as rumored, will not be pitching coach.
Prior, as reported by Moura a while ago, will be new pitching coach
Jansen, with conditions and ifs, may be the closer.
Maeda, until September, will be in the rotation.
I am glad that Friedman will come back, because I don’t think that the alternatives were nearly as good. But he is exasperating in answering questions. I know he wants to be diplomatic. He thinks that Jansen will be a major part of the team next year, likely the closer? They did not even use him as a closer in the playoffs! He thinks that the bullpen was well put together? If he actually thinks that the bullpen is okay, we are not winning anything next year, either. Nor do I think that the overall roster is as good as he seems to think it is. Next season must not be a continuity of this one, basically same talent, just a couple of small changes like we usually do.
What makes anyone think that Friedman either would or should share his plans and strategies with the world? I’m sure that he has his own evaluation of the team, each of its players, any weaknesses and probably has been making plans to deal with them. There’s no way that he would cover these in a presser, nor should he.
DodgerRick
You are 100% correct and what I was thinking when watching the presser. You really have to read between the lines when he speaks and he’ll give you a tidbit that might glint what he may be thinking. I also think he’s a fluid planner and is mostly opportunistic when looking for adds to the roster. One add may lead to another change and so on.
Here’s the link to the replay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsUWKj-aHBU
My biggest take away is that he said something to the effect the complexion of the roster may change. They have financial and prospect capital and flexibility available.
To me, this means that they will be pursuing both trades, and free agency and there will be some changes to add talent to the roster. But, without blowing up the core of the team.
Not a whole lot of information overall. He deferred saying that he ins’t looking into specifics with players right now and that he’s been thinking in broad strokes.
It’s sad to see Honey leaving, but it’s about time. It’s sad to see Roberts staying, but it is a sign of a good organization to continue to develop it’s people instead of making rash decisions to replace and hope the new guy is who they believe he is.
thanks for posting that – I hadn’t had the chance to see the presser.
As 59 says, you have to read between the lines with Andrew. I definitely got the feeling that he plans to be active in the free agent market; however, it is Andrew Friedman, so he probably won’t be spending “stupid money”.
In response to whether he’ll hire a GM this winter, he was again non-committal but did say that they’ve had a lot of requests to interview Dodger employees so was thinking he would have to fill in some holes at some point.
Kapler is interviewing for the managerial openings with both the Giants and Cubs. I don’t expect him to get either but would not be at all surprised to see Farhan hire him to run the Giants player development, similar to what he was doing here.
In spite of what Friedman said about Kenley being the closer next year, I’m willing to bet he’ll sign or trade for someone who will be there to step in if the season gets off to a bad start for Jansen.
I’m ready for some sort of shocker from AF this winter but have no idea what that might be.
I have never believed that AF would entertain signing a big outside FA before this winter. However, I do think he will spend this winter. On who, I have no idea. If it is Cole, there is no other transaction that would need to take place. That would be easy. But if it is Rendon, then there is going to be some additional transactions that may be as simple as Gavin Lux going back to AAA. Rendon could go to 2B where he is familiar, and Muncy to 1B. Or Rendon to 3B, Muncy at 2B, and JT at 1B. If the Dodgers were to sign Rendon, I am guessing that they would have to satisfied that Rendon is willing to move around. Some players do not mind playing multiple positions, some do. That is why Kris Bryant makes a lot of sense, but that involves a trade, and I think AF will be less likely (not unwilling), to pull the trigger on a trade.
when I was contemplating the Dodgers acquiring Rendon, and suggesting that both Rendon and JT could play 1B, it occurred to me that Muncy would have to move off 1B to 2B, and that Lux might have to open the season in AAA, or on the bench or even a super utility role. But I also figured that the Dodgers’ brass was perfectly capable of making happen whatever had to. I also never thought about Rendon transitioning over to 2B, since I didn’t recall that he ever played there.
Also, I don’t have a clue, but can Lux play LF. He certainly has the speed for the outfield, and the power as well. I’m not recommending it one way or the other, it’s just a thought.
In any case, in addition to Cole, I would like the Dodgers to acquire an impact right-handed bat. How they do it, who it is, and how that player is integrated into the lineup is anybody’s guess. Also, as much as I like Lux, he doesn’t have to be guaranteed anything come opening day. It might even be preferable that he has to force (earn) his way into the lineup.
And, of course, I didn’t mention trades. Any FA thoughts are likely to influence the direction of trades.
If we have confidence in AF, then we need to trust that he will do nothing without a detailed, comprehensive plan.
Rendon at 3b
Turner at 3b and 1b
Seager at SS
Lux at SS and 2B
Muncy at 2B and 1B
If Williams’s pessimism process true then Turner will spend time on the IL. Even if not, plenty of ABs to spread.
I’m still not sure why they’ve never given Muncy any reps in left field. He’s actually among the faster guys on the team (by one measurement he’s 6th behind Negron, Lux, Belli, CT3 and Pollock) and I think he could do a decent job out there on a sometime basis.
Sell high on Joc and let Max and Beaty have his at bats in left field. If you sign Rendon he spends most of his time at third but he can also play second. Everyone but Seager has experience at multiple positions.
Speaking of Seager, he’s earning 4 mil this year with 2 years of arb left. Lindor is earning 10 mil with 2 years left. Would the Indians consider a trade in order to save money.? Would AF be interested?
Kris Bryant is earning almost 13 mil with 2 years left. Cubs are constantly complaining they have no money to spend. Would they be interested in Bryant for Seager? Would we?
Just think folks, if we were still playing we’d be talking about tonight’s starting pitchers instead of how to fix the team. Isn’t this lots more fun? (no need to answer that question)
Interesting exercise that confuses the issue even more.
Lindor – 2019 – .284/.335/.518/.854 – 4.7 WAR, 118 OPS+ – Projected 2020 Salary $16.7MM
Lindor – Career – .288/.347/.493/.840 – 119 OPS+
Bryant – 2019 – .282/.382/.521/.903 – 3.6 WAR, 130 OPS+ – Projected 2020 Salary $18.5MM
Bryant – Career- .284/.385/.516/.901 – 136 OPS+
Seager – 2019 – .272/.335/.483/.817 – 4.0 WAR, 113 OPS+ – Projected 2020 Salary $7.1MM
Seager – Career – .294/.362/.491/.853 – 126 OPS+
Bryant is much more versatile and benefits with Wrigley power. Lindor is an exceptional defender. Bryant and Lindor both had their 2019 season mirror their career, while Seager had a down year compared to his career numbers after 2 major surgeries in 2018. Seager is due to make $9.6MM less than Lindor and $11.4MM than Bryant. Lindor is a SH and Bryant is a RHH, so a straight swap would balance LHH and RHH. For me, I would not trade Seager straight up for either player. Any difference would not be worth the $10MM additional dollars they can use to sign Cole or another FA in that range. And Seager is more inclined to have a better 2020 than either Lindor or Bryant. I would prefer Bryant AND Seager. Plus with Baez and Hoerner, the Cubs do not need a SS.
I know there are some here that would trade Seager without hesitation. IMO that is extremely shortsighted.
As usual AC, I tend to read your logic and agree with it. I also think Seager is due for a better year next year. Save the extra money and use it to go shopping for other guys.
Friedman said he has financial and depth flexibility to make some moves and he said Jansen will be with the team next year but doesn’t know in what role. He said Maeda will be in the starting rotation next year. He talked about the core of the team being important going forward.
3 things he talked about that bugged me were that he felt comfortable with Kershaw pitching in relief in game 5 and he said he believes the Dodgers bullpen was good enough to win a championship and he said Dave Roberts will return next year.
If Maeda is going to be in the starting rotation next year, that doesn’t leave much room for Gonsolin, May, Urias and a possible Gerrit Cole. I don’t think Buehler and Kershaw are going anywhere, so the starting rotation will consist of:
Buehler
Kershaw
Maeda
and 2 others. Who?
Is it possible to trade Pollock and Kelly with those contracts?
What about all the relievers that were left off the post season roster Sadler, Floro, Garcia, Ferguson, injured Alexander?
What about Stripling who’s only role has been to fill in basically?
I think Kolarek will be gone, good loogy, but the new rule eliminates him. I think Rich Hill will be gone, too injury prone and starting him in game 4 was a mistake considering it made it a bullpen game.
Do you honestly believe that AF would throw Doc under the bus at a press conference and say that it was a brain dead idea to put Kershaw in relief, especially to start the 8th inning? I do believe that AF believes the bullpen was good enough. But even if he didn’t believe it he is not going to announce it to the world. We will know more by his actions once the hot stove is in play.
He isn’t going to announce to the world in October that Maeda is going into the bullpen and forgo all of his vesting incentives in 2020. Maeda is a team player and he may agree to it depending on the starting pitchers lined up for 2020. But right now he was part of the 2019 rotation that is losing two pitchers. What is AF supposed to say?
Another thing to consider is the new active roster limit going up to 26. Even though I suspect that’s likely an extra player on the bench, it could also be an extra arm in the pen or maybe an occasional 6th starter.
It may well be that Maeda opens the season as a starter, but that could change as the season progresses. And we shouldn’t assume that at least some of the young pitchers that we’re projecting to be a part of the rotation won’t be converted to the pen at some point.
And many of the things that we’re contemplating may well be affected by trades and/or other matters. It will be a awhile before things begin to shake out.
I could be mistaken, but I thought I read somewhere that of the 26 roster spots, only 13 could be pitchers. That coupled with the fact that a reliever will now have to pitch to a minimum of 3 batters or to the end of an inning should mean less pitchers used per game.
I guess what I’m trying to say is the odds are very high that the extra roster spot will be a position player rather than a pitcher.
Not watching the game, but through 5 innings it looks like Strasburg is doing to the Cards what he did to us in his first start. And the pitcher I feared the most if the Dodgers had played the Cards, Jack Flaherty, surrendered 4 runs in 4 innings. Of course, it’s baseball, but for now it looks good for the Nats.
I turned on the Nats-Cards game, and Strasburg’s change is impressive.
Mark suggested that Kershaw develop a change and I did the same. If Kershaw develops a good one, I believe he could become dominant again.
And by the way, Howie Kendrick just hit his 3rd double of the game. Guess his HR against the Dodgers was no fluke.
I didn’t turn this game on until the 7th inning, and just learned that 7 of the 8 runs the Nats have scored were driven in after 2 outs. Maybe the Dodgers just ran into a hot team.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner
Question: Do we feel better if the Nats sweep past the Cards and then win the World Series?
Or do we feel worse, knowing that if Kershaw had just faced one batter and Kelly had just pitched one inning, we might be world champs.
Answering only for myself, I wouldn’t feel one iota better if the Nats won the World Series. It’s like UCLA losing a big game in the football past to USC, and then hoping that they win the national title, to make the loss look better. The Nats aren’t our big rival, but they would just add to the list of teams in the last 31 years to win a championship while we have not. And even if they beat Houston or NYY, though I do not think they will, it would not mean that we would have, had we won that last game. It is a different matchup, and team B beating team A and then team C, does not mean that team A would beat team C. I think that Houston or NYY would have hammered our pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, in an extended series, while Washington has a top two to match anybody. It is always interesting, though, how a franchise or college program which finally gets over the hump of having never won a big game, can suddenly play much better with that pressure gone.
STB, will you ever give up asking questions that can’t be answered?
AF is as evasive as any mobster I’ve ever heard give testimony. He plays things very close and we will never know what is really going on in there. We don’t really have to know, but we want him to change things up. 3 years ago, I said that Honeycutt’s time was over. It’s easy to dismiss my statement following 2 WS appearances but I also called for Roberts’ head, an d finally there is some real support for that. Although Doc will be back, if there is a qualitative change in the roster, and that will only come about by spending $$$, then ownership, which I have labeled the ultimate cause of the Dodger problems, will have had a change of mind and untied AF’s hands. Without the ownership signing on to upgrade the team, we can expect more of the same.
I don’t care who wins what, except the Yankees, and only because I grew up in NY as a Yankee hater. Otherwise, I only care about what the Dodgers do, and this year that won’t be enough.
And William is right, who wins depends to a large degree on matchups.
And here’s a question I may have to repeat if a new thread suddenly appears. Does anyone know if there will be any players available this winter from Japan or Korea?
Ex Dodger Will Venable being interviewed for the Giants job.