In case no one told you… baseball is changing. Well, actually, it HAS changed. Most fans and insiders alike now understand that “Three Outcome Players” are no big deal. They understand that OPS is more important than BA. They understand that how we used to value players is not how we value them now. Some of us hate change, while others embrace it.
Perhaps nothing has changed more than the approach to starting pitching. Teams do not develop starting pitchers to work seven innings or throw complete games. Most clubs, leaning on statistical evidence, are reluctant to expose starters to a lineup a third time. Now, teams are going to rotations of six starters, which means that starting pitchers will pitch even fewer innings.
Baseball has changed. When Sandy Koufax pitched, he had the benefit of a 15-inch mound, but the height of the pitching mound in Major League Baseball (MLB) was changed from 15 inches to 10 inches in 1968. This simply meant that in order to increase velocity, you had to do it yourself – you no longer had the benefit of pitching “downhill.” Well, the velocity has increased, and so have the spin rates. Unfortunately, arm injuries have increased at an alarming rate.
In 2000, MLB had 37 pitchers pitch over 200 innings. In 2024, that number dropped to four! This is the new paradigm! It’s the way it is now. Embrace reality. The Dodgers will likely go with a six-man rotation this season, and certain pitchers will not start their season until May or after (Kershawm Ohtani, Sheehan, et al). With a six-man rotation, it seems likely that a starter will start 22-24 games. Even if they average six innings each outing, that will likely equal less than 140 innings pitched.
The days of the workhorse are gone. I would not be surprised if no pitcher goes 200 innings in 2025. It is what it is. There will be no more Mike Marshall’s pitching 208 innings IN RELIEF in a season.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has a piece today entitled: The Dodgers rotation lacks a clear workhorse. Maybe it’s…Blake Snell? No, it’s not! I mean, it’s possible that Blake will pitch the most innings of any Dodgers starter (or not)… but he’s no workhorse. Come on Man! With a six man rotation, he will not get the opportunity for 30 starts. There are no more workhorses. Deal with it!
Also, in The Athletic, Jim Bowden rated the Dodgers as “The Most Improved Team.” Here’s what it said:
Most improved team: The Dodgers
— Jim Bowden (The Athletic)
The Dodgers are the most improved team in MLB for the second consecutive offseason after adding two top-of-the-rotation starters (Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki), two impact back end-relievers (Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates), more outfield power (Michael Conforto) and more versatility (Hyeseong Kim), along with bringing back key pieces and contributors such as Teoscar Hernández, Blake Treinen and Kiké Hernández, not to mention franchise icon Clayton Kershaw. Will the Dodgers become baseball’s first back-to-back champions in a quarter-century?
Yes, the Dodgers have the best chance of repeating of any team in the last 25 years, but with 12 teams in the playoffs and a 162-game season, anything can happen. Ask the Kansas City Chiefs! Let’s check out the Pre-Season…
Dodger Notes
- It seems likely that Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech will start the season on the IL. No need to rush it.
- Will Ohtani return to form as a dominant pitcher? I would say that the odds do not favor him, and if his pitching struggles affect his hitting, he may become a one-way player.
LA will give Shohei a pretty long leash at pitching again I imagine. It could definitely not work out, but it could. Hard to bet against the guy at this point. If the pitching doesn’t come back around for Shohei, I doubt he’d be exclusively a DH. He’s waaay too good an athlete for that, and even with a dimished arm, he’d probably be a great fit in Right Field. Or maybe he can still pitch, but more of a bullpen role…
Logan Webb is still a traditional Work Horse. Logan Gilbert (and most of the other Mariners starters) have a shot at 180+ innings. Availability and durability are still assets for players and their teams. It is wild looking at 300+ innings seasons in history. Have our bodies changed that much? Or is it over specialization? Too much max effort, every pitch? Where’s a rubber armed knuckleballer when You need one?!
Good stuff, DCN. Hope you’ll continue to comment here.
I agree that if the Shohei return to pitching doesn’t go well, he’ll definitely become an every-day outfielder. Most teams prefer to rotate guys in and out of the DH spot anyway if they can get away with doing that.
As far as how pitching/pitchers have changed, my feeling is too much max effort combined with less time between pitches is a major cause of injury and less innings.
Thanks! I chime in occasionally.
I’ve heard that kids playing only baseball don’t necessarily build up the way kids did when they played all the sports. I was never especially athletic, and got beat up playing football more than anything… I’d think running and swimming would be great for pitchers, to build endurance and strength in core, legs, shoulders, and all the random little muscles… if I ever have kids I’ll encourage them to try as many sports as possible!
I’m not sure how Ohtani would be able to pitch out of the bullpen since he will be the DH on most days.
i look for ohthani to be depended on more in september and october. if Glasnow, Snell,Yamamoto,Sasaki,Kershaw, Gonsolin are all healthy, he won’t need to rush back and risk injury. i know Clayton will be 37, but i believe he pitches his arssss off the times he is on the mound! the last couple of years have left a bad taste in his mouth. Just imagine the decisions Dave Roberts has to make this fall if all these guys are healthy! There are 4 # one pitchers on this staff . And Clayton would probably be a “1” on half the teams in baseball. Who knows, Sasaki might be a “1” too. WOW! Like taking a 5 year old to toys are us and telling him , pick one! What to do? …. looking at bleacher report earlier. the A’s projected 3rd baseman in a couple of years? None other than Max Muncy! No , not the one who plays for the dodgers, but the 22 year old who plays in the minors for the A’s! The dodgers projected 3rd baseman 3rd baseman? Emil Morales. Maybe they are overlooking Fleeman? … Just look. the dodgers have Kopech, Phillips, and Bazooka on the il to start the season. Maybe Dustin May gets a chance to shine in relief. Could be the start of something big for May! …. Will Sasaki get the ball in Japan for game two? Pretty sure we know who gets it in game one!!
The game has changed dramatically in the last few years. The days of guys like Koufax and Big D, finishing what they started are long gone. 5 innings is good, six are great. Seven? Almost unheard of. Perfect for a guy like Snell who has been barely a 5-inning pitcher his entire career.
Anthony Rendon is going to have hip surgery. The Dodgers were lucky he picked the Angels over LA.
I think this officially makes Rendon the worst signing in history, or at least top 5. And as much as I dislike Moreno as an owner, you really can’t blame him for this one. After all, Andrew wanted to sign him also.
Yeah, unfortunately the only award that Rendon will win under this contract is MVP (Most Valuable Patient).
He isn’t the only one they got lucky on. A little luck, money, and great management spells a lot of success.
A six man rotation helps keep innings down for pitchers but does nothing to help relievers while reducing the number of relievers on the 26.
If health doesn’t reduce the number of pitchers available, the Dodgers could have depth they will waste. That or they will have Aces working out or the Pen. Mid-season trades?
Having less relievers may call for a new type of workhorse pitcher. I’m talking about a whole slew of guys who can pitch one or two innings every single night.
Per Ardaya:
Dave Roberts also said Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech are both “a little behind schedule,” but it’s too early to tell whether either would have to start the season on the IL.
Dodgers will have the benefit of expanded rosters in Tokyo.
Extra players? How many?
For the Tokyo Series on March 18–19, 2025, between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs, Major League Baseball has established specific roster guidelines to accommodate the unique circumstances of international play. While the standard active roster during the regular season is limited to 26 players, teams participating in international series are permitted to expand their travel roster. According to a report from Bleed Cubbie Blue, teams can bring up to five additional players, bringing the total to 31. Within this expanded group, three players will technically remain part of the big league roster without needing to be optioned, while the remaining two can be from the minor league system. This allows teams to have additional flexibility and coverage, especially considering factors like travel and potential injuries.
Therefore, both the Dodgers and the Cubs can have up to 31 players with them in Tokyo for the start of the 2025 season, with 26 designated as active for each game.
OK, so 5 extra players get a nice trip to Japan, but they still have to use a 26-man roster.
Another outcome of the reduced innings load on pitchers are both the 26 and 40 man rosters are too small for the Dodger’s unmatched depth of talent.
The Dodgers have already lost Brasier, a good solid soldier, and it appears more lo yield moves are likely due to roster limits.
While the current Dodger team is great, why not relieve both 26 and 40 man roster pressure by packaging 3 young guys who are running out of options for Mike Trout?
Seems like a win for Angels, Dodgers (in the near term) and Mike Trout, who deserves a chance to win.
Mike Trout will be 34 this season.
Over the past 5 seasons, he has averaged 63 games a season.
Do you really believe he will become more durable as he ages?
No doubt keeping Trout on the field may be a problem; but what a story if it worked!
Perhaps the real question is how do the Dodgers get something better for 2 – 3 good solid players who get forced out by roster limits and option rules.
Keith Law had a couple of chats:
Q: How do the Dodgers do it? They are already the best team in baseball (IMHO) and they have 5 players on the too 100 prospects list! This is coming from a Mets fan who feels like our ownership has done a pretty good job with their farm system.
@Jerryesherman They scout. The Dodgers have retained a big scouting staff across the board and their scouts are really involved in the draft, in trades, etc. Combine
Q: How far off was Jimmy Crooks from making this list? The advanced analytics are right up there with Dalton Rushing hitting wise and the stats better in most aspects. Also, was better at controlling the run game. Do you think he overachieved last year?
@Taylor C. I do think he overachieved. I don’t think he’s anything like Rushing.
Q: Decades into the Tommy John era, the arm injury epidemic seems worse than ever and even the Dodgers have admitted they need to study and rethink their approach. Have you seen anything, publicly available or proprietary, to suggest that teams are beginning to understand better how the protect their players’ health?
@Alex R. Oh I think teams know exactly what’s wrong, but the incentives to win now overwhelm the incentives to keep most pitchers healthy. Why would you do that when you can just go out and find the next cheap reliever on the scrap heap, give him a few extra mph or some new demon pitch, get 100 great innings out of him and dump him when he breaks?
Q: Keith, you mention the Yankees drafting low year after year, and I’m not disagreeing with what you say, but the Dodgers seem to be able to have great drafts and they typically draft even lower than NY. Are they just run better? Better scouting/evaluation processes? How are the Dodgers flush with endless money AND an almost endless supply of young talent to supplement their big league club?
@Matthew D. They have different draft philosophies. I think the Dodgers are one of the best drafting orgs in the game – and even they miss. Their top two picks in the 2023 draft might both be NPs.
Q: Hi Keith, love the work. Are the Dodgers really that far ahead of everyone else organizationally (scouting, R&D, etc.) and, if so, why don’t other teams (at least those with the money, like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, etc.) just copy what they’re doing? (Perhaps this is already happening and I just don’t realize it and/or it takes a lot of time for this kind of thing to bear fruit.)
@Peter V. Some teams have tried. The Red Sox decided to whack their pro scouting department, so they’re heading in the other direction.
Q: Just out of curiosity, what level would MLB like to get rid of in MiLB?
@Andy M. Low A. Although it doesn’t matter what level on paper – the idea is we’d be down to three or maybe even two levels above the complex. It’s batspit insane.
Q: You said it was tough to get to a top 100. How many teams was it a struggle to get a top 20?
@Pat K. Maybe 10? Lot of teams are fine up top, and then in the teens it gets ugly.
Q: Hi Keith,
What do you think of Mike Sirota? He seemed to be a first rounder till he slumped his senior season and now that’s been followed by injuries. Do you think the Dodgers found a gem in the rough that they can mold into another success story or a lost cause?
Thank you! Been reading work for over a decade!
@Alan L. I am not sure why scouts thought he was a first-rounder based on what I saw of him and what I heard post-draft, but I do think he was a great pick by the Reds and that the Dodgers are also betting that the truth is somewhere in between where he was supposed to go and where he went. Most likely fourth outfielder.
Q: What do you think it would take for O’s to Draft a pitcher in the first or second round?
@Gregory E. Some sort of airborne toxic event.
Q: I know Ricky Henderson was a unicorn, but do you think we’ll see players steal 100 plus bases like him and Vince Coleman or has that ship sailed?
@Michael H. Barring more rule changes I don’t expect to see that again.
White Noise
Talking about worst signings in history. not baseball, but certainly Aaron Rodgers two years with the Jets
Never understood that signing.
The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with Alex Bregman on a three-year, $120MM deal. The Boras Corporation client receives massive $40MM salaries in each season, though an unreported amount of that money is deferred. Bregman can opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has yet to officially announce the signing.
The Padres are reportedly in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year, $55MM deal. The CAA client receives a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’s guaranteed $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM salaries over the following three seasons and can opt out after the contract after the second and third years.
During an appearance on “Hot Stove” on MLB Network, manager Dave Roberts said the Dodgers expect Yamamoto and Sasaki to pitch at the Tokyo Dome in some fashion:
“I think the expectation for both those guys to pitch is real. That’s our expectation. But as I say that, you just never know. Today is our first day of pitchers and catchers, so things can certainly change. But I think at the outset, that’s the anticipation.”
Of the two, Yamamoto is who will likely start for the Dodgers on Opening Day. That would leave Sasaki to pitch in the second game if the Dodgers are comfortable with sending their rookie to the mound.
I like to embrace reality. And the reality is that 8 bullpen arms are an absolute must! The changing dynamics of starting pitchers proves this. I know it’s en vogue to talk about 6 man rotations. But unless they increase roster size….not gonna happen…..a 6 man rotation is untenable. The bullpen has to eat the same amount of innings regardless of how many starters are in the rotation. Max effort is hurting pitchers, not the recovery time between starts. If you won’t let starters face a lineup for the 3rd time. You need more relievers, not less. Even Ray Charles can see this. Openers and bullpen games are the wave of the future. Every 5 or 6 games you will see one. Or a spot start by one of our young guns. Prior spelled it out perfectly in an interview a couple months ago. If you have aspirations of a second ring your bullpen arms are untouchable.
Book em
Potential Dodgers Bullpen Arns:
1. Kopech
2. Treinen
3. Scott
4. Vesia
5. Graterol
6. Yates
7. Banda
8. Casparius
9. Knack
10. Wrobleski
11. Sheehan
12. May
13. Gonsolin
14. Duran
15. Gallegos
16. Karros
17. Dreyer
18. Grove
19. Henriquez
20. Phillips
21. Swan
22. Kopp
23. Bruns
Lots of choices!