Now, before you all lose your minds, let me say that I am rooting for Shohei Ohtani to return to the mound and be a successful pitcher… I just am skeptical that he will! Look no further than our own (formerly) Walker Buehler and remember what a struggle it was for him last year to come back from his second Tommy John Surgery. Yes, he saved the World Series, but I tend to think that was more “smoke and mirrors” and “guts and grit.” I wish Walker well with the Red Sox, but I have my doubts that he will ever be a shadow of what he once was… and I hope I am wrong!
Undergoing a second Tommy John surgery (ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction) presents significant challenges for pitchers, and the outcomes have been mixed. While many pitchers successfully return to play after one such surgery, the success rate decreases with a second procedure.
As of recent data, over 40 Major League Baseball pitchers have undergone a second Tommy John surgery. Notable examples of those who returned and found success include:
- Nathan Eovaldi: After his second surgery in 2016, Eovaldi became a key contributor to the Boston Red Sox’s 2018 World Series championship and earned All-Star selections in subsequent seasons.
- Jameson Taillon: Following his second surgery in 2019, Taillon returned to pitch effectively for the New York Yankees and later secured a four-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.
- Daniel Hudson: After undergoing two Tommy John surgeries, Hudson reinvented himself as a reliever and notably closed out Game 7 of the 2019 World Series for the Washington Nationals.
However, most pitchers do not regain their prior form after a second surgery. For instance, Kris Medlen and Jarrod Parker faced significant challenges in their comebacks and eventually retired from professional baseball. Yes, some pitchers have returned to Major League play after a second Tommy John surgery. However, the degree of their success varies, and the overall success rate is lower compared to those undergoing the procedure for the first time.
If Ohtani returns, great! But his value to the Dodgers as their MVP leadoff hitter is off the charts. If his pitching troubles affect his offense, he must stop trying to pitch. There is no answer right about now… we shall have to watch this play out. Yeah, I know he’s a different cat, but he is still human… made of skin and bones.
I’m rooting for him, but not counting on him to pitch. If he does, it’s icing on the cake.
Early in the season, the Dodgers rotation could look like this:
- Snell
- Glasnow
- Yamamoto
- Sasaki
- Miller
- Gonsolin or May
I think the Dodgers have to try Gonsolin and/or May at that #6 spot to see if they can still start and/or access and showcase their trade value. I look for Bobby Miller to bounce back. This will be an interesting Spring Training. I am looking forward to being there February 20-23.
I expect the Dodgers to be very careful with their super star. They will err on the side of caution. JT garnering interest from several teams. The Dodgers are not one of them.
Love your 23 man bullpen list.
But you only get 7.
I will be shocked if the team carries
6 starters and 7 relievers. But I get shocked every time I stick my finger in a light socket! Go figure.
Book em
Dano: don’t forget that as soon as Ohtani becomes part of the 6 man rotation, he will not count as a pitcher so we will still have 8 relievers. I also think that during the 1st few weeks of the year, we will only use 5 starters (due to days off), also allowing 8 relievers for part of the time Ohtani is not pitching.
I’m with you Jay. I just can’t believe they would waste a roster spot on a 6th starter. Using that roster spot for an extra bully arm makes way too much sense. With all the excess pitching they could give the rotation an extra blow whenever they need one.
Book em
Ohtani is qualified as a two-way player, and the Dodgers can carry 13 pitchers, not counting Ohtani right out of the gate.
When I was in the Army, I got shocked by a radar I was working on. It was no fun.
I wonder how many of the overseas promotional deals have language that involves Ohtani pitching.
Maybe…
Dodgers To Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw
“Feb. 13: Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.
In all, that $7.5MM base can double to $15MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season”.
With the luxury tax,the Dodgers’ payroll for 2025 has to be north of 500 million. Who cares, it’s not my money as long as we continue to put the best players on the field in every game.The cash register for revenues in so many ways keeps ringing. The Ohtoni factor is huge.
Didn’t MLB channel say Dodgers 2025 salary projects to $383 million? Thats a boatload but not near $500 million. Of course I doubt the lower number includes all the possible incentive goals.
That doesn’t include the luxury tax penalty of $100 plus million for going over the fourth threshold of the Collective Bargaring Agreement.
Dodgers paid $103 million in MLB luxury tax as a record nine teams owe penalty, per report
in 2024 per CBSSports.com.Dec 21, 2024.
In a corresponding move with the Kershaw official signing,River Ryan was placed on the 60 Day IL.
Clayton Kershaw said he expects to be on the 60-day IL to start the season, but his timeline likely lines up for him to be ready once those 60 days are done.
From MLBTR:
The Dodgers agreed to a minor league contract with veteran reliever Luis García, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The signing comes with a non-roster invitation to big league camp.
García had mixed results in 2024. The hard-throwing sinkerballer pitched reasonably well for the Angels early in the year. Signed to a $4.25MM free agent deal, he pitched his way into a setup capacity for Halos skipper Ron Washington. García turned in a 3.71 earned run average through 43 2/3 innings. He posted roughly average strikeout (22%) and walk (7.7%) rates with a strong 51.2% ground-ball percentage. García recorded four saves and 11 holds while only relinquishing two leads.
As a veteran rental on a non-competitive team, García was an obvious deadline trade candidate. It nevertheless registered as a surprise that the Halos were able to get four players from the Red Sox when they flipped him. Boston didn’t part with any top-end talents, but they included a trio of players (Niko Kavadas, Ryan Zeferjahn and Matthew Lugo) who were on the doorstep of the majors. Kavadas and Zeferjahn each debuted with the Halos after the trade, with the latter performing well to put himself in consideration for an Opening Day bullpen job.
The deal didn’t work out well for Boston. García missed a couple weeks late in the season with elbow inflammation. He was tagged for 15 runs across 15 1/3 innings in a Sox uniform. That pushed his season ERA to an unimpressive 4.88 mark through 59 frames. The tough finish evidently prevented him from finding a guaranteed deal as he enters his age-38 season.
García nevertheless makes for an intriguing depth option. He has gotten grounders on at least half the batted balls he has allowed in each of the last three years. Despite his age, García still throws hard. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater with the Halos and had a velocity uptick in Boston even though he battled the minor elbow concern. He’d have a tough time cracking the Dodger bullpen if everyone’s healthy but adds an experienced depth piece with Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips each delayed in camp.
Some of the dodger youtube pundits were saying, ‘I think we can agree that Luis Garcia will never pitch for the Dodgers.”
Not so sure about that.
This ignores the way the Dodgers churn the bullpen, and also the way that Prior & Company so often seems to help pitchers raise their games.
Garcia might be the next Brasier. Who knows?
Some of the dodger youtube pundits were saying, ‘I think we can agree that Luis Garcia will never pitch for the Dodgers.”
Not so sure about that.
This ignores the way the Dodgers churn the bullpen, and also the way that Prior & Company so often seems to help pitchers raise their games.
Garcia might be the next Brasier. Who knows?