Andrew Friedman characterized 2023 as a “Transition Year” long before the 2023 season started. I do not think that Dodger Fans fully understood what that really meant. In 2022, the Dodgers won 111 games, but in 2023, they “only” won 100 games as they utilized sixteen (count ’em, 16) rookies in their transition year. Here are the rookies who debuted in 2023:
- Nick Robertson (traded in the deal for Kike Hernandez)
- Gavin Stone
- Bobby Miller
- James Outman
- Miguel Vargas
- Michael Busch
- Jonny Deluca
- Emmet Sheehan
- Michael Grove
- Ryan Pepiot
- Yonny Hernandez
- Luke Williams
- Tayler Scott
- Justin Bruihl
- Andre Jackson
- Gus Varland
Not all of them are impact players. Shoot, not all of them are still in the Dodgers Organization! However, sixteen is an absurd amount of rookies to play for a team that won 100 games. It was a truly transitional year! So, the question becomes, “Which Rookies or Prospects could make a difference for the Dodgers in 2024?“ While, I do not see the Dodgers having sixteen rookies on the team in 2024, there are a few that come to mind:
- Miguel Vargas (while technically not a rookie) is primed to make a big impact in 2024.
- Michael Busch (If not now, when?)
- Emmet Sheehan (Imagine him a year later)
- Gavin Stone (progressing nicely)
- Landon Knack (he is a man)
- Hunter Feduccia (could this be his year)
- Jonny Deluca (great chance to be a RH reserve)
- Nick Frasso (the stuff is there)
- Kyle Hurt (starter or deliver – once they decide – he’s close)
- Ricky Vanasco (almost a lock)
- Jorbit Vivas (ready but blocked)
- Andy Pages (can he maintain his conditioning?)
- Yernier Fernandez (likely spends 2024 in AAA)
- Ronan Kopp (just a question of when?)
- River Ryan (filthy as a starter or in the pen?)
I do not expect 16 rookies to make it in 2024, but it could hit double digits! Yency Almonte signed for $1.9 MM, which is fair, relying on the fact that in 2022, he was lights out and not so good in 2023. Relievers are indeed fickle. The Dodgers also have JP Feyereisen, who is due back in 2024. Even if Brasier and Miller (Shelby) walk, the team is deep with relievers, and there is no way Josh Hader will be a Dodger – ZERO!
Ryan Yarbrough is a nice player to have, as he gives options, but I am not convinced he will be on the team in 2024. We shall see. Of course, most Dodger fans (desperately) want to believe Shohei Ohtani will be a Dodger. I found it interesting that someone (maybe from Ohtani’s camp) floated the idea that he may be receptive to a higher AAV deal. I think Friedman will be all in on a five or six-year deal worth $300+ MM. However, if it becomes a ten or twelve- year $500+ MM deal, it will not happen. To think that the Dodgers are intent on signing him, no matter what, flies in the face of reason!
Mookie is the only Dodger under a long-term deal, which is at approx. $33MM per year through 3032. That will be a bad contract… maybe the last three or four years. Freddie Freeman is under contract for four more years at $27 Million per. That is much more friendly. There is no way in God’s Green Earth that Andrew Friedman or the Dodgers will add another $50+ Million to the $33 MM owed to Mookie from 2030-2033 or 33! Shoehei will age like every player… not well.
Andrew will try and ink him to a five or six-year deal at a higher AAV and who knows? Maybe Shohei wants that. I have no clue, but as Bear reminded us yesterday:
Ohtani is one of seven free agents who were offered QO’s. If the Dodgers do sign Ohtani, above what he costs in salary, there is another cost. The Dodgers would lose 1 million in international pool money, and their second and fifth picks in the draft. If the Dodgers signed another player, aka Snell, Chapman, Nola, Bellinger, et al, they would forfeit their third and sixth picks. Sorry guys, that isn’t going to happen. No way ownership or AF are comfortable with giving up four picks and a million dollars in pool money. They would much rather acquire free agents for whom there is no compensation. They do not say what the penalty would be for signing three of those players, probably because that is about as likely to happen as a hurricane in Colorado.
— The Old Bear
I see the Dodgers being busy this winter, but not the way many of you do. If your hearts are set on Shohei, you may be heartbroken! Shohei is a 6′ 4″ physical freak. Aging at that body size will be much harder than Mookie at 5′ 9″! Take it from someone who once was the size of Ohtani… I actually celebrated my 70th birthday yesterday… just a quiet dinner with the family. Life is good!
P.S. One final thing on Christain Yelich in LF. His mediocre arm is vastly surpassed by his speed and overall defense in LF, which is elite! If you just focus on his lack of a cannon, you are ignoring how good he is defensively due to his speed and excellent reads!
A Happy Healthy Belated birthday Mark. Enjoy them while we still can.
I plan to have at least 35 more!
Happy birthday old salt.
70. I didn’t think gorillas lived that long.
Yelich and his contract don’t scare me. $26 million for 5 years with a buyout is the kind of contract AF might be ok with. He is 32, doesn’t hit left handers well, but, the Dodgers could work around that. He could probably average 3 WAR for 5 years in our lineup. If taking him on could get us Burnes I think it’s worth considering.
Badger, Yelich has a career .270 mark against lefties. He has 45 of his homers off of left-handed pitching and 180 RBI’s. In contrast, Muncy hit’s .227 against lefties. He does have an OPS over .800 against southpaws. He has struck out over 200 times against lefties. Freeman hit’s .275 against them.
Check his last 3 year OPS number against LHP. All under .700.
I know, but his career numbers say he will hit them. Maybe he hasn’t played against them as much.
I am more of an ape.
I’m a bear, they are both hairy………..well everything except my head.
I can see that Mark.
The great apes include chimpanzees, bonobos, orangutans, gorillas and humans . Bonobos, your cousins, are an interesting clan. In bonobo society sexual relations play an important role in maintaining peace. They use sex to resolve conflicts. I think humans can learn a lot from bonobos.
You’re a great ape Mark. I’m sure the family is proud.
Happy birthday, Mark !Nothing better than to have your family around to enjoy days like these! Hope there will be many more for you in the future.
My Dodgers wish list is rather easy and not too long:
Othani.
Burnes in a trade with Brewers. If we have to take on Adames and/or Yelich so be it. Should reduce the price of prospects .
One of the two Japanese pitchers.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
See below. No on Adames.
Happy Birthday Mark, Luke Williams was not a rookie. He exceeded his rookie status in 21 when he was with the Phillies and played in 58 games with 98 at bats. He played more the following year, 79 games, 127 at bats.
Last thought on Adames. He is in his walk year. I cannot see the Dodgers trading Lux who can’t be a free agent until 2027. It just doesn’t make any sense for them to do that and then need a SS next year. Re-signing Adames would cost a lot more money than what it will cost to keep Lux.
Can always turn around and trade Adames for prospects to a team that is in dire straits for a competent ss.
Maybe make it a three way trade to begin with.
But he definetely would not be a deal breaker for me if it nets us Burnes.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!
Not to you, but he is to me. I would rather see Lux succeed.
What if the Brewers insisted on getting Lux?
What if they said, “We’ll deal Burnes plus either Adames or Yelich, but only if we get our local hero back. We see Luxy as the our new leadoff hitter and face of franchise in our rebuild. We want Luxy so much that we aren’t interested in Cartaya or Busch or Vargas or any other bat. ”
The question Lux vs. Adames is a secondary concern.
The primary concern for the Dodgers is Burnes. For the Brewers, Lux could be the priority.
Feels very random to pick Lux as a “must have” hypothetical. Isn’t it more likely an other team would insist on a player NOT coming off serious injury?
Nola deal feels great for both sides.
I’d rather see Burnes succeed…. on the Dodgers.
If Burnes succeeded with the Dodgers, and Lux succeeded with the Brewers, wouldn’t we call that deal a win?
Seriously, the Dodgers just won 100 games with Rojas as the primary SS.
Shortstop isn’t a big problem.
The rotation is a big, glaring problem.
Happy Birthday! Looking good.
Vivas isn’t blocked. We’re hoping he can play 2b full-time but if not maybe he can be a bench guy. Hoping he debuts sometime this year.
When I say “Blocked” I mean that the Dodgers have a lot of options there:
Lux
Betts
Vargas
Busch
Kike (maybe)
Taylor
Vivas
Right. Dodgers have many 2B options–and Betts could block them all.
That said, I hope Vivas gets a fair shake in spring training. Gift-wrapping the position for Vargas proved to be a mistake. And so, apparently, did allowing Vargas to play with an injured hand.
Vivas seems like a great contact/on-base guy who could play for a lot of teams. He could be a sweetener in a deal for an impact SP.
Nightingale says the Sox and Dodgers are discussing a Cease trade. Not sure if it is true.
Getting Cease would be good. Getting both Cease and Burnes would be better.
And then maybe sign Imanaga as well….
While Burnes is entering his walk year, I think Cease may have two more years before he hits free agency. This will add to his price, but the Dodgers have plenty of trade capital to work with.
Among the young players, I’d say only Bobby Miller is untouchable. What do the White Sox need?
Aaron Nola resign in Phillly, 7years, $172 mil
Congrats for lapping the sun again, Mark!
May the Great Dodger in the Sky make the upcoming season a championship one.
What player would you like the Dodgers to get for your b-day?
Don’t be greedy. Just name one.
If you want, it can be Alex Verdugo.
I could go for Alex – Not sure AF would take him back, but maybe he would, as Verdugo still has a lot of upside. He can play LF or RF and while he hits RHP better than LHP, he doesn’t suck against LHP… well… yes he does!
He’d be perfect.
Nola back to Phils on 7-year, $170 million deal
Happy 70 Candles. Nice picture. Got to appreciate family times!
I don’t put candles on my cake, it would catch fire.
If the Dodgers take on Yelich’s contract to get Burnes, no need to trade Lux. Yes, Yelich has some value, more to the Dodgers than the Brewers. Two or three lesser prospects will do. The LA farm has some prospects.
No surprise on Nola, really liked playing in Philly.
Other reports suggesting Dodgers are discussing a deal or deals with the White Sox. At this stage they are, no doubt, in multiple discussions with various teams. Lots of rumors. The winter meeting must be near.
Trying to figure out body types and how players hold up is risky business. I’ve seen all body types break down. Isn’t that how we opted to trade Pedro Martinez and isn’t that why the DBacks traded Max Scherzer?
Adames? Bear explains why the Dodgers should pass. Time to move on.
Happy Birthday, Mark. You look much wiser than your years.
If the Dodgers do sign a couple of free agents with qualifying offers, this will look a little like the Draft Day movie, starring Kevin Costner. Would Friedman do that? Seems unlikely, but I suppose it’s possible
Congrats on achieving the milestone. Happy Birthday Mark! May the Big Dodger in the Sky grant you many more!!!
Looks like the old ape is happy with all the young apees around. Happy birthday Mark.
All the fa’s everyone wants have to fit in with our roster. Roster management will probably be a driving force in AF’s decisions.
Cease for Busch straight up?
Makes sense since we re-signed Muncy and Busch is Muncy lite.
I’d be stunned that we got Cease for that little. I’d expect at least a AAA arm going back to Chicago as well.
Yeah, some volume of arms involved.
Busch, Kendall Williams and Gus Varland.
Closer…. If I’m running the White Sox, I’d want someone ML-ready. Many possible: Grove, Stone, Knack, Frasso….
Same thing re Burnes.
Might have to give up the potential of Pepiot or Sheehan in either of these deals, especially if it involves another piece like Yelich.
Lux’s Wisconsin roots may mean absolutely nada to the Brewers, but it might be different for the marketing strategy for a rebuilding small market team.
Also, it’s hard to know which team might need catching help, and the Dodgers have depth at that position. Most Dodger fans shrugged when Connor Wong was included in the Betts deal, but he has proven to be vital for the Red Sox.
Happy birthday Mark.
First of all some things:
1) I don’t know who has QO’s. Maybe someone could tell me if any of the free agents I have listed below have QO’s.
2) The free agent position players I have listed don’t need to be platooned.
3) This doesn’t block DeLuca because he’s a platoon player. He’s valuable on the bench to crush LHP. It does block Vargas and Busch, but they are there as trade chips in case what happened to the starting pitching last year happens again.
4) Why is Muncy batting 9th? Because he either hits home runs or he walks. Therefore if he hits a home run he clears the bases of the bottom of the order. Or if he walks then there’s someone on base for the top of the order. Plus he strikes out a lot and that’s not a good thing in the middle of the order and there’s plenty of power higher than him in the order.
5) When Smith needs days off, move the 6 through 9 batters up one spot and place Feduccia at number 9.
6) You never have enough pitching, especially good pitching.
7) I think I read the Dodgers will be careful with Beuhler and he will need a piggy back if he returns.
8) Can the Dodgers get all 5 of the free agents I listed? I don’t know, maybe, maybe not.
Free agent position players to get:
Rhys Hoskins LF
Jung Hoo Lee RF
Martinez or Turner DH.
Starting lineup:
SS Betts
1B Freeman
RF Lee (a contact hitter AND power hitter)
LF Hoskins (higher career slugging than Muncy)
C Smith
DH Martinez or Turner (aging, so you never know and Doc never sticks with one batting order anyways)
CF Outman
2B Lux
3B Muncy
Free agent starting pitchers to get:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Shota Imanaga
Starting Pitchers:
Yamamoto
Imanaga
Beuhler with a piggy back of either Pepiot or Sheehan
Miller
Either Pepiot or Sheehan
That’s a VERY powerful offense and VERY good starting pitching. No need for Ohtani.
The seven players who got QO’s were Gray, Nola, Ohtani, Bellinger, Chapman, Snell and Hader. Ohtani is still their number one target and the chances you could sign both Yamamoto and Imanaga are pretty slim. Yamamoto is going to get 6 or 7 years at least. Dodgers are in discussions with the White Sox about acquiring Cease.
Agree… except I do not think they will get Yamamoto.
Also, I think Lee will hit much lower if they got him.
I like Hoskins a lot.
1. Sign Hoskins.
2. Trade Vivas for Verdugo.
3. Sign Heyward
4. Sign Martinez
Lineup:
1. Betts 2B
2. Freeman 1B
3. Martinez DH
4. Smith C
5. Muncy 3B
6. Hoskins/Verdugo LF
7. Heyward/DeLuca RF
8. Outman/Kike CF
9. Lux SS
Nice – I like platoons.
Vivas for Verdugo
Where do I sign?
[V IS FOR VICTORY]
I can dig it.
Where does Verdugo play? He is not listed in your line-up?
I fixed it. He plays LF with Hoskins.
We could see some action pretty quickly…
Hang on!
Just asking:
Would you trade Dalton Rushing, James Outman, Gavin Stone, Andy Pages, and Jorbit Vivas for Dylan Cease, Eloy Jiminez, and Luis Robert, Jr.?
Hell yes
Interesting that this lineup omits both Vargas and Busch…
If we want platoons, then sign Nick Senzel to platoon with Max. He crushed lefties last season. He might be (probably is?) a defensive upgrade too. And his ability to play the OF adds to the appeal.
I think Hoskins will have many suitors who would put him at 1B. Not really an ideal fit for the Dodgers. If, heaven forbid, Freddie gets hurt, Max would slide over from 3B and Senzel could be the primary at 3B.
I’d rather have Lee in LF than Yelich. Or Lee could play CF with Outman moving over. But its clear that the Dodgers need to focus on the rotation, not the lineup.
The market for SPs will be hot and expensive. Dodgers are positioned well with both $$ and prospects.
Just heard from the White Sox.
They said you need to throw in Miller and Lux and then they’ll think about it.
BYE!
Just for fun, I went to the Trade Simulator and listed your trade.
The Simulator says you’d have to add ONE of the following to the players you mentioned:
Lux
Sheehan
Vargas
And, for some reason, they give Jimenez a negative value so if you pulled him from the deal, you’d have to add a little more (but not much).
The problem with the trade simulator is that it gives you value vs. value. When AF makes a trade, many times it is because his team has seen something in that player that makes him worth XXX to them when his value is only XX.
Interesting that this lineup omits both Vargas and Busch…
If we want platoons, then sign Nick Senzel to platoon with Max. He crushed lefties last season. He might be (probably is?) a defensive upgrade too. And his ability to play the OF adds to the appeal.
I think Hoskins will have many suitors who would put him at 1B. Not really an ideal fit for the Dodgers. If, heaven forbid, Freddie gets hurt, Max would slide over from 3B and Senzel could be the primary at 3B.
I’d rather have Lee in LF than Yelich. Or Lee could play CF with Outman moving over. But its clear that the Dodgers need to focus on the rotation, not the lineup.
The market for SPs will be hot and expensive. Dodgers are positioned well with both $$ and prospects.
Senzel is a guy who would benefit greatly from being in the Dodgers system.
I wouldn’t do that trade. I just don’t like giving up good players under control multiple years for 1, 2, 2 years of those 3 guys. Plus 3 out of the 5 guys you have listed I definitely want to keep.
Saw a story on google news that Ohtani is narrowing his list.
But is he checking it twice?
Yeah, he’s eliminated the A’s.