How to Build a Great Rotation

Posted By on November 20, 2023

Many… or at least some Dodger fans believe that this Winter, the Dodgers will do something they never have under Andrew Friedman and sign two or maybe even three starting pitchers to long-term deals. Let’s get this over with right now: It is not happening! If you look at Andrew Friedman’s past history, you will see that he rarely gives out long-term contacts – Mookie Betts was the lone exception. Starting pitchers are simply not a good long-term investment. There are exceptions… but not many. The road to failure is paved with long-term contracts for pitchers.

The Phillies hired Dave Dombrowski before the start of the 2021 season, and he brought the team to the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. He is known for winning in the short term by trading prospects, signing free agents, and saddling the team with longer-term deals that will be bad in the end. It happened to him in Florida, Detroit, and Boston. He knows how to assemble a team that can win in the short term, but he mortgages the future to do so. He is in the process of doing it again. He knows he has a short window opening, so he signed Aaron Nola to a 7-year deal yesterday. He won’t be around at the end of the contracts, and Nola will be someone else’s problem. Dombrowski will likely make a couple of more signings in an effort to win now.

Maybe it will work, but the odds are it won’t. Like it or not, the playoffs (as they are currently constructed) are as close to a crapshoot as you can get. In a year or three, the Phillies will tank, and Dombrowski will be fired and collect his salary until 2027. Most fans will say that it wasn’t worth it. That’s the antithesis of what Andrew Friedman is trying to do. He wants to be relevant and in the playoffs EVERY YEAR! So, if you think AF will sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto for ten years (unless it is a Kenta Maeda-type deal), or Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, or some other pitchers who will command a longer-term deal, you will be sorely disappointed!

It’s far more likely that he signs one or two pitchers at a much lower AAV and under three or four years. I am talking about the following pitchers:

  • Kyle Gibson
  • Luis Severino
  • Tyler Mahle
  • Jack Flaherty
  • Michael Lorenzen
  • Sean Manaea
  • Michael Wacha
  • Kenta Maeda
  • Shota Imanaga
  • Hyun-jin Ryu
  • Martin Perez
  • Seth Lugo
  • Lucas Giolito
  • Sonny Gray

If that surprises you, you haven’t been paying attention. Oh, he could traded for Corbin Brunes or Dylan Cease in the right deal (I think Cease is more likely as he has two years of control, and Burnes’ agent is the devil himself). Andrew Friedman has been building (stockpiling) minor-league arms and now has amassed an impressive array.

Last year we saw Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan – all three who will likely be in the rotation THIS YEAR. We also have Michael Grove and Gavin Stone (one of whom could go to the pen), and Walker Buehler, who will be back – the only question is how effective he will be. In 2025, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin will return, and then there are Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt (who may be a bullpen guy). Maddux Bruns is making strides and, along with Justin Wrobleski, could be the lefties Andrew Friedman covets. Then there are Kendall Williams, Peyton Martin, Jarrod Karros, and Hyun-Seok Jang. These are all pitchers with varying degrees of promise, and yes, not all will make it… but some will.

What Andrew Friedman is doing is not unlike what AJ Anthropolus has done in Atlanta. He stockpiles them; some breakout, and some just break, but he just keeps them coming. Friedman has gotten the Dodger farm system to this point. It is loaded with live arms, and it should start delivering a solid pipeline of pitchers each year.

Do the Dodgers need a Number One? Maybe not! Bobby Miller could be the guy, and Walker Buehler is a bulldog – don’t count him out. The Dodgers could use a LHP in the rotation, and they do not have one right about now, so Lugo, Ryu, or Imanaga could be desirable. If Imanaga gets four years, AF could be all in. On the other hand, AF may have ideas that we have never even thought of as yet! Freidman was all in on Gerrit Cole, but Cole is an exception to the rule. There are not many Cole’s on the market, and Cole wanted to be a Yankee since he was a kid. BTW, Corey Seager went to the team where he liked to hit the most. That part is true.

I can see a scenario where AF will trade at least some of the following players: Busch, Vargas (not both), Pages, Vivas, Cartaya, and Rushing (among others), but he will be loathe to trade some of the above pitchers, because he knows some of them will be good to great! That’s how you build a great starting staff – from within. You blend in an occasional Free Agent, like Tyler Anderson or maybe Dylan Cease, but the best rotations are homegrown.

This article has 81 Comments

  1. I agree with Mark, well I think so. Don’t trade your top pitching prospects, no way, no how, no. And the Dodgers have several of them like Mark said.

    But the Dodgers don’t have a starting pitcher that’s been around for a few years that has established himself as an ace or #2 besides Beuhler. So do you go with Beuhler and second year and rookies after Beuhler? But in the playoffs good pitching beats good hitting. Then do you trade prospects for starting pitchers (that may involve trading pitching prospects a no-no to me) or sign free agent starting pitchers. That’s another question.

    I have no problem trading position player prospects for 2 reasons and it’s what Mark and I both said, the best starting pitching is built within and I would add the bullpen too. And the Dodgers seem to produce better pitching than hitting going back many years.

    By the way Mark, the position player names you listed as possible trade chips, the only one I wouldn’t trade is Rushing. I think he’ll be good and a great idea would be eventually him and Smith catching 50% of games and DHing 50% of games rotating. Both bats are in there everyday and they won’t get wore out later in the season and into the playoffs.

  2. Google news had a post about Manfred and MLB board will be discussing the way the playoffs are structured now and consider changes. Well, I will believe that when I see it. I think you left one pitcher who is a free agent off of your list Mark, Eduardo Rodriguez. AF coveted him at the deadline, that might still be the case since Rodriguez says there are no geographic restrictions on where he might sign. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving. I am heading out to California for the Christmas holidays on the 8th of next month.

  3. Watch for Thayron Liranzo. He is a switch-hitting catcher who hit 24 HR in Low A last season. He could pass Rushing and Cartaya in 2024.

    1. He’s for sure on the helium list.

      Agree with your take that Miller, Pepiot & Sheehan are 3/5 of the rotation. I consider Stone a favorite for a spot but no harm if he begins the year #6: openings happen.

      Moves should target premium talent, not innings eaters.

  4. Hall of Fame ballot to be announced today. Adrian Beltre eligible for the first time. I think he is first ballot HOFer. Helton and Wagner had the most votes last year, 2/3rds. Possible they both make it this time.

  5. I too like this thinking! Using homegrown pitchers allows for the occasional shopping spree. Very happy to see your 70th happen and being in Sinus Rhythm! Congrats.

  6. To get proven premium pitching, the Dodgers will have to deal some promising pitching in return.
    If I’m dealing my No. 1 starter–be it Burnes or Cease–I would want serious pitching talent coming back.
    The Braves just traded 5 guys–three pitchers, two infielders–to get RP Aaron Bummer from the ChiSox, hoping he’ll bounce back from a weak season. Two of the guys had ML experience.
    How much would Cease cost?
    He’s much better than Bummer, and he has two years left on his contract. The acquisition will not be painless.

    1. The Sox will ask for some combination of these pitchers (in addition to Busch or Vargas):

      Pepiot
      Stone
      Sheehan
      Frasso
      Ryan
      Knack
      Martin

      One of those pitchers may be great.
      One may be above average,
      The rest may flame out.
      Are you confident that you will only trade the flameouts?

      I’m not!

      I keep all my prospects and sign Free Agents who are undervalued.

      2. Trade generator, better than we are but not great, says a CWS-LAD trade that works is:

        NAME AGE LEVEL P1
        Diego Cartaya 22 Minors C
        Landon Knack 26 Minors SP
        River Ryan 25 Minors SP
        Josue De Paula 18 Minors OF
        Total Value: 47.80

        FOR

        NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2
        Dylan Cease 28 Majors SP
        Total Value:
        44.8

        1. I would not do that trade… and it’s not because of Cartaya.

          Landon Knack is MLB ready and could be a better Major League Pitcher than a Minor League Pitcher.

          River Ryan is very new to pitching and is a Wild Card. He could be a #2 or nothing…

          DePaula is the closest thing the Dodgers may have to a Superstar. It’s hard to project 18-year-olds, but he is intriging.

          1. Yeah, I’d have the biggest reservations over DePaula, but you gotta give something to get something and the silly trades people try to do which turn into an 8 for 1 deal.

  7. Lance Lynn signs a one-year deal with the Cardinals.
    The Dodger post season is off to a great start!

  8. Cease probably makes more sense. They might expand that deal.

    But Friedman is going to do a big free agent deal.

    He even admitted this year is different from previous winters.

  9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes
    By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2023 at 12:00pm CDT

    November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.

    The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities. It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.

    Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market. Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors. With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left. Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.

  10. Baseball America’s New Top 10 list for LAD:

    1. IF Michael Busch
    2. C Dalton Rushing
    3. RHP Gavin Stone
    4. OF Andy Pages
    5. RHP Nick Frasso
    6. OF Josue De Paula
    7. RHP Kyle Hurt
    8. RHP River Ryan
    9. C Diego Cartaya
    10. LHP Maddux Bruns

    1. Glaser did a nice chat on BA’s site. It’s paywall, so here are just a few highlights:

      QUestion:
      Between Frasso, Knack and River Ryan, who has the best chance to remain a starter in the big leagues?

      Kyle Glaser
      This is the million dollar question. Knack is the one who has proven he’s durable enough to start and has the most feel for pitching of the group, so you might have to defer to him. At the same time, I can see a scenario where any of the three end up being the right answer to this question. Pose this question to Dodgers officials, and you’ll get a different answer from everyone you ask.

      Question
      What injury did Payton Martin suffer this summer? I couldn’t find anything written up about it. Are there internal team concerns about his smallish frame?

      Kyle Glaser
      Martin is healthy, he just got shut down due to his age and the Dodgers being cautious with his workload. There aren’t any concerns about Martin’s frame. He’s a good athlete who has lots of room to fill out. As long as he fills out and gets stronger, which he has the frame to do, he’ll be fine.

      Question:
      Are the Dodgers still the industry leader when it comes to identifying + developing prospects? Do you feel like other orgs have closed the gap if so?

      Kyle Glaser
      They Dodgers are still the class of MLB when it comes to scouting and player development. Other organizations may be close in pitching or hitting individually, but no other team does both simultaneously as well as the Dodgers do.

      Also had good things on:
      Eduardo Quintero, Elkins and Wrobleski

    2. Look how far Cartaya has fallen. He used to be the Dodgers number 1 prospect for 2 years in a row. I have him at number 10 on my list only because I’m considering what the experts say otherwise he wouldn’t make my top 10 list. I said he was overrated BEFORE this season started in the offseason.

    3. Interesting.
      Cartaya has certainly slipped–no surprise–but as Mark suggests he could bounce back. Part of the good news here isn’t on the list: Will Smith is an all-star caliber catcher who should be solid until Cartaya and Rushing are ready. Dodgers could deal Cartaya or Rushing or Feduccia or Yeiner Fernandez or Galiz or Liranzo and still feel good about the depth at catcher.
      Although technically not a prospect, I’d lump Vargas with this group. He’s younger than most and is back in the minors.
      Just to stir the pot a bit, I noticed another report in which a GM suggested the Dodgers could deal for Burnes and Adames. This comes along with the rumor of Rojas to the White Sox to replace Anderson. Rojas could certainly be a good piece in a package for Cease.
      So let’s game this out a bit, swinging for the fences….
      Say the Brewers deal Burnes + Adames for something like Lux, Knack, Kendall Williams , Pages and Yeiner Fernandez, while the Sox deal Cease for Stone, Grove, Busch, Rojas. The Brewers and Sox add raw prospect for cosmetic balance.
      Rotation could be:
      Burnes
      Cease
      Buhler
      Miller
      Pepiot/Sheehan
      Need a crafty lefty? My 14-year-old isn’t quite ready, so let’s welcome Ryu back. Maybe it’s just nostalgia, but wouldn’t we all prefer Ryu to Yarbrough?

      And the lineup could be:

      Mookie 2B/RF
      Freddie 1B
      Shohei DH
      Smith C
      Max /Senzel 3B
      Outman CF
      Heyward/Taylor RF
      Adames SS
      Vargas/DeLucaLF

      Bench: Barnes, Vivas, platoon guys… Adames would be be backed up by Taylor and perhaps Mookie too. Dodgers could have platoons in RF, 2B, 3B, LF… Perhaps also CF.

  11. Kyle Glaser nailed it: “This is the million dollar question. Knack is the one who has proven he’s durable enough to start and has the most feel for pitching of the group, so you might have to defer to him. At the same time, I can see a scenario where any of the three end up being the right answer to this question. Pose this question to Dodgers officials, and you’ll get a different answer from everyone you ask.”

    But, I would add Martin, Stone, Kopp, Wrobleski, and Jang to that list.

  12. Rumor has it the Dodgers offered Aaron Nola a 6-year $165 million contract. Not sure it is true, but if it is AF is indeed going big game hunting and breaking from his well chronicled Modus Operandi of limiting the years to starting pitchers.

  13. 1. Agree completely with Mark on building a pitching staff with homegrown pitchers. Cost of pitching is exorbitant and the frequency of arm injuries with pitchers make those investments costly. I would like a signing for a more affordable lefty like Imanoga and then a guy like Wacha, Lugo, etc.
    2. The trade simulator package for Cease is crazy, in my opinion. Cease pitched to a 4.43 ERA last year. It is not beyond the pale that either Miller or Pepiot pitches better than Cease next year. If I am dealing Cartaya, DePaula and Ryan it would not be for Dylan Cease. DePaula, Liranzo, Vargas, and Cartaya (despite his struggles) have among the highest ceilings of position players in the farm system.

  14. Dodgers reportedly offered Nola a six-year, $165m deal.
    If true, it suggests that AF is willing tolspend big and go long on top SP talent.

    1. 1. It evidently is true.

      2. AF knew Nola wanted to stay in Philly and knew what Philly was prepared to offer.

      3. If he really wanted him, $180-$190 MM over 6 years barely moves the AAV needle.

      1. So are you saying AF didn’t really want Nola and it wasn’t a sincere offer?
        I thought the Phils might lose Nola to the Braves, but I think AF’s offer was sincere. (Remember, the Dodgers did not even try to keep Trea Turner.)
        Who else is on AF’s shopping list?

        1. But Turner made it clear that he was going to the East Coast AND there was no way AF was going to pay him $300 Million. AF has been in on lots of players he never got: Harper and Cole, are two.

          Also, I think AF did not believe he could build a championship caliber team with Turner’s defense at SS – it ain’t good. He does make some spectacular plays but butchers some routine ones.

  15. Some pundit somewhere suggested that the Dodgers might deal Miguel Rojas to the White Sox as a short-term solution to replace Tim Anderson.
    Hmm.
    Including Rojas in a package for Cease could enable the Dodgers to hold back to a prospect. The Dodgers would be left with Lux at SS backed up by Chris Taylor. And maybe Mookie gets more reps.
    I do like the smoke around Cease. Every top contender has at least two top-flight starters. Even the D’backs had the two proven star SPs in that series against the damaged Dodgers, and a rookie that stepped up. Right now, the Dodgers have question marks.
    Will Buhler come back strong? Will Miller take the expected step forward? What can we expect from Pepiot, Sheehan, etc?
    Cease could be half of the solution.

    1. I think Burnes is a higher caliber Ace, but I think Prior could help Cease, and Cease has two years of control. Now that is an AF move, and Rojas makes sense with CT3 healthy.

      I just wonder if AF is also interested in Robert, Jr., and/or Jiminez?

      Chicago will be 3-5 years away from contending, so they may want players who are 3+ years away too, like Gelof, Liranzo, DePaula, Bruns, Jang, or Martin, et al? Outman would have to be in that package.

      1. Agree on all points. There are a lot of options. Not sure if the White Sox or Brewers want to wait on the younger guys. The Dodgers can both win now and let the prospects develop.
        Getting Robert would be epic.
        If I ran the White Sox, I’d demand Outman, Rushing, Frasso and more.

        1. Frasso is close. I would think they might want a couple or there pitchers who are further away and Peyton Martin would certainly be one I would ask for.

  16. Rotation:
    1. Cease
    2. Buehler
    3. Miller
    4. Pepiot
    5. Sheehan

    Lineup:
    1. Betts RF
    2. Freeman 1B
    3. Robert CF
    4. Muncy 3B
    5. Smith C
    6. Jiminez DH (if you look at just stats, you will hate this guy – look at potential)
    7. Verdugo/DeLuca LF
    8. Vargas 2B
    9. Lux SS

  17. Because of his age I’d be more willing to give Yamamoto a longer deal. But the competition will be fierce and AF isn’t one to get into a bidding war.

  18. And Mark, you really need to get over your man crush on Verdugo. He’s turned out to be only an average mlb player with a me me attitude. Not gonna be a Dodger! And I think AF will bring in 2 starters.

    1. I just see potential… if you want to call it a man crush, I really don’t care.

      He is a player who has not realized his potential.

  19. Dylan Cease is overrated.
    Career 1.306 WHIP
    Career slashline .228 /.315/.384/.699

    Pitchers with those stats are a dime a dozen and Cease is under control for only 2 years. He had 2 really horrible years, 1 bad year, 1 average year, and 1 really good year.

    I wouldn’t be willing to pay the price the White Sox want. Talk about an overpay. Dope fiend move.

        1. Where’s the windshield, can you give me proof there IS a windshield? Can you give me proof that the windshield is good and will hold up? If not I will take the odds (stats) and go to this store that can at least tell me I have a good chance that their winshield will be good and hold up.

    2. He was the Cy Young runner-up in ’22, pitching to a 2.20 ERA with a WHIP of 1.11–on a pretty crappy team. He has thrown more than 175 innings the last two seasons, which is pretty good by today’s standards.
      So he has demonstrated his potential. Cease’s best was better than Buhler’s.
      I think we can assume that the Dodgers’ braintrust has done its due diligence and believe the coaches can help him get back to ace-caliber play, only this time on a winner.

      1. “Cease’s best was better than Buhler’s.”

        If you’re talking about slashline and WHIP check that again. Beuhler was better.

    3. Being a RHP the opposing team is going to throw as many LHB at him as possible and his career slashline against LHB is .246/.332/.418/.750 that’s bad.

        1. It’s like what Kyle Glaser said yesterday (thank you Bluto):

          “The Dodgers are still the class of MLB when it comes to scouting and player development. Other organizations may be close in pitching or hitting individually, but no other team does both simultaneously as well as the Dodgers do.”

          Overall, the Dodgers do have the best player development in baseball. Are they perfect? Of course not, but whenever a person starts his argument with “AF is bad (or whatever),” I know they are full of something that smells.

  20. More Rumors about Burns and Adames. MLB.Radio was discussing it with several national writers. Most believe that the trade will be Burnes and Adames and they all raved what a great upgrade Adames would be.

    Maybe Rojas goes back to Milwaukee along with who?

    I see Adames as a great defender who has some pop and that RVS and Company could help him get better offensively.

    In 2021 he hit .285 with a .886 OPS – he has OPS’ed over .800 three times in his career!

    I like him a lot!

  21. Well, only time will tell. If they trade for Cease, which seems to be a lot more likely than Burnes simply because of the control issue, Burnes is off the table.

      1. I think Cease would be a better option, has two more full years of control, and there are no guarantees with any pitcher. Burnes could flame out as could Cease. I think they both are good pitchers and both help the rotation.

  22. One site reported this about Adames:

    “He’s been an elite defensive shortstop with reliable power in the middle of the Brewers’ lineup. The only shortstop with more home runs than Adames since 2021 is Corey Seager, the Dodgers’ former shortstop who just won World Series MVP with the Texas Rangers.”

    1. I prefer strong defense up the middle, but Adames represents more of that swing and miss approach that has not reaped the results we seek in the playoffs. Having said that, I see Adames as an upgrade to Rojas, but still a far cry from the position we were in during the Seager/Turner era.

  23. It appears that the Dodgers are talking with both Milwaukee and Chicago. Who knows if anything is imminent?

    2. This is my argument as well. AF doesn’t trade off prospects on a whim. However, there comes a point where player progression is compromised when so much talent is blocked on so many levels.

      If there was a silver lining to the disaster that was the 2023 Dodger pitching staff it’s that so many young arms had the opportunity to get some playing time in the Show. Players who otherwise wouldn’t have pitched an inning in 2023. That offered a lot of insight and ability to evaluate players in real world MLB games versus hypothetical projections. Provided an opportunity for Prior and his staff to get to know the players and gauge their intangibles. AF has been a master at selling high. The Machado and Darvish trade come to mind. Sure, they were rentals and AF wasn’t going to give up a top 5 prospect in those moves. But in hindsight, none of the player we traded had any business being ranked as high as they were at the time of those trades. AF knew when to move them.

      I think this is the year AF is likely to pull off a big trades.

      1. Well put, Jayne.

        There was definitely an upside to the disaster that was our original starting rotation last year, that being a close up (and sooner than expected) look at Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Grove and Stone.

        The experience they gained at the MLB level last year will be of great benefit to their future progress and the ability to analyze their strengths and shortcomings at this level will serve AF well.

  26. This is a great time to be a Dodger fan. I do not recall the last time we had the prospect capital and financial flexibility to pursue any player available in the trade or free agent market. Not enough has been said about the flexibility this front office has created during their reign.

    Go Dodgers!

    1. 100% agree. That flexibility is a direct result of staying away from dope fiend contracts and trades.

  27. I keep thinking how glad I am the Dodgers didn’t extend Urias. I know, it was unlikely Bor-ass would let him sign an extension in the first place. But the whole Bauer fiasco put the Dodgers in a bad spot last year on multiple levels. Imagine if the Dodgers were sitting on 5+ years of a Urias contract while all his criminal conduct was being adjudicated in the courts and the inevitable MLB investigation. They likely would have already released him and began legal proceedings to get out from under the remainder of his contract. Which likely would take a year or more to resolve.

    Glad it was his free agent year and we’re just done with him.

  28. AF will trade prospects very carefully. We have a number of pitchers who will be coming in the pipeline over the next year to four years. Not all will make it, but you don’t always know who will break out or break.

    In 2017, the Cardinals wanted Marcel Ozuna so badly that they traded Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara. That was what you call a “dope-fiend move.”

    The Dodgers do not have to trade any arms – they will not go to waste.

  29. Tim Britton of The Athletic predicted that Aaron Nola would get 6 years/$180 Million. Instead, he got a 7-Year/$172 Million Contract. He was close.

  32. I think we’re hunting big fish but then I also think we’re liable to bring in a mid-tier SP on a 2-3 deal.

    Ohtani
    Imanaga
    Stroman/Giolito
    Soler

    I’d like a haul like that.

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