When the players pitch and get hits, the manager looks like a genius. Torey Lovello looked the part last night as Merrill Kelly looked like Cy Young. In what can only be called an epic game, Kelly went seven innings, allowing three hits, one run and striking out nine. This was a guy the Dodgers hit hard during the regular season. He has a 0-2 record against them with a 3.98 ERA and an awful 1.987 WHIP. However, during the playoffs, he is now 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. He also has 28 strikeouts in 24 IP. This is a guy who is 35 years old and did not make it to the Show until he was 30. His career ERA is 3.80, but unlike other pitchers who win Cy Youngs during the regular season only to disappear in the playoffs, he has done the opposite.
How do you reconcile that? He is becoming one of the Legends of the Fall. Some of you seem to think that I am disrespecting Bruce Bochy, but you just don’t get the point. The point is the manager usually has very little to do with what happened in the game. Oh, they have a role, but was last night on Bochy, even if some people think he stayed with Montgomery too long? Hell no! If I wanted to disrespect Bochy, I would blame him, but the fact of the matter is that Players Usually Decide the World Series! Managers have a role, but it is small compared to the role of the players.
Tommy Pham, at age 35, was 4-4 last night. The D-Backs got Pham at the trade deadline, and he promptly hit .241 for them during the regular season, but after last night, he is hitting .275 in the postseason. After he went 4-4, Torey Lovello pinch-hit for him, with Jace Peterson of all people. If Dave Roberts had ever done that, some of you would have lost your minds (or what you have left of them).
I could go on and on, but all anyone can say is, “That’s baseball!” Stuff happens that is unexplainable, but I still find the fact remarkable that many of you want to throw out Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman when it was the players who failed. The Dodgers won 100 games – you have to be pretty good to do that. It’s not luck. It is consistency. It is a testament to the organization that they won despite all the injuries and adversity to the starting staff. To lose to a team that won 84 games and was sub .500 the last three months of the season is hard to take and harder to understand.
It would be easier to take if it was a strategic failure on Friedman or Roberts, but Friedman put a team on the field that was capable of winning 100 games and did! Roberts managed that team to 100 wins. That they epically flopped for the second season in a row is on the players – just like last night was not Bochy’s fault. I also credit the Ranger players for the win in game one. It was not because of Bochy. Bochy was there as the manager, but the players had to play. The Ranger players played in game one. They did not in game two.
The more I watch baseball, the more I believe that the baseball Gods manipulate things so that some amazing, unpredictable, heart-breaking, and wonderful things happen in the World Series and the Postseason in general. I have often said it is a crapshoot. No, it’s a crapshoot of a crapshoot! You can’t make this stuff up!
Jordon Montgomery
To me, Jordon Montgomery would be a #3 or #4 for the Dodgers. He will be 31 next year, so I would consider him on a 5-year deal. It will likely have to be in the $100 Million range, and I wonder if there are better options. He had Tommy John in 2018 and should be good for a while since he is not a fireballer. He pitches to a lot of contact. His Postseason ERA of 2.90 does not align with his 1.35 WHIP. Last night, he had no strikeouts, which is somewhat unsettling. If I were AF, I would look at him only if he wanted to be in LA, and it was a good deal. That’s my way of saying, “This was his career year, but he’s not all that!“
AFL & Damon Keith
Keith grew up in Redlands, Calif., about 65 miles east of Dodger Stadium, and emerged as a draft prospect at nearby California Baptist, where he won Western Athletic Conference Player of the Year as a junior. The Dodgers drafted him in the 18th round and signed him for $125,000. Expected to be an organizational player, Keith instead posted some of the top exit velocities in the Dodgers system across the Class A levels in his full-season debut and became a favorite of big league hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc. He finished in the top 10 in the organization in hits, runs, doubles, RBIs, total bases, and OPS.
Damon has excellent raw power and plus, plus bat speed. He will strike out a lot of swing-and-miss, but he reminds me of a RH Kyle Schwarber. He can play all three outfield positions but would be best in LF or RF, even though he is very athletic. He has been a personal favorite of mine as well. I had him ranked #17 last year but have dropped him to #27 this year. He is a little old to still be in A+ ball.
I watched him at RC last year and was impressed. I have seen him in 30+ games and see him as a 4th or 5th outfielder who could be more if he can cut down on his swing-and-miss. He will be 24 next season and will likely start the season back at Great Lakes. He stalled there this year, hitting just .229, but hopefully, the AFL will extend him. Progress is not linear. Here’s a video of his powerful swing:
I was watching game last night and I must say, was not impressed enough with Montgomery to offer him more than a 3, year deal. he looks like a 3 or 4 to me. I guess I would eat crow and say I’d rather have Snell! but he scares me too! there are no Kershaw’s, Glavine’s, or Pettit’s out there to go get. Maybe thy go all right-handed and load up heavy in the bullpen with lefties. That is assuming Clayton retires or moved on. as for Roberts and Friedman, Doc has done a good job over the years. Friedman has worked magic and he also flopped on a few. I don’t even consider Yordan A. a bad trade. Who knew? The only way Max should stay on this team is if they don’t sign Ohtani. He should be the DH and nothing else. if no Ohtani then absolutely extend Max! I can’t wait to see Lux back on the field! I have a feeling he will be a monster at the plate! Too much talent there not to be!
Chances of Snell coming to LA would be at about 10% or less. He is a Scott Boras client, as is Montgomery. Boras is going to milk those years they had for all the cash he can. At least 5- or 6-year deals. I would think he values Snell more than he did Rodon last year and he got him 6/162. Max has a 14-million-dollar team option. At that price with his OPS and power, he is a bargain. He will be picked up. They have no reason to extend him at this point.
I’d pass on Jordon Montgomery. You’re probably right, it’s his career year.
Maybe something is available on the trade market and there is of course Yamamoto and a few free agents who might be “deals” and have upside. The Dodgers do have some trade assets that could land them an up and coming pitcher. The Dodgers may be on the verge of having two or three young pitchers make up the bulk of their rotation in 2024.
I’m sure they would like a veteran or two.
Put Keith in AA. Time to stop slow-playing our prospects. Busch should’ve been the LF over Peralta last year.
Peralta had a great few months until injury.
Busch has played that position exactly 49 times between the minors and college. He has played three positions in the infield almost 600 games. And you want to put him in left field over a gold glove winner and finalist? That is ridiculous.
Thank you. Coming from you that means a lot.
It should. That was just a really bad idea Johnny. Cmon, be serious.
We sure see the game differently Mark but that’s ok if we were all the same life would be to boring. I do agree with ya once in awhile like your assessment on Montgomery, he’s not worth any kind of big contract. I do like Snell’s competitiveness and does usually keep it close thru five at least but I doubt AF goes big money there and I don’t blame him. Just hope AF is half the genius you say he is and able to bulk up starting staff with high quality cause without it there’s no crapshooting nowhere and that’s a fact. Just kidding
Well boys, the snow has arrived in Southern Colorado. A couple of inches and it is still snowing. I think AF will probably look into just about every starting pitcher he can. Starting pitching is the priority, or at least it should be. Free agents, trades, reclamation projects. He will kick the tires on all of those. As for Kersh, the ball for the third year in a row is in his court. Found out this morning that my ex is in the hospital with some serious issues. Fluid around the heart and such.
I got deked last night with the HPU. The previous game had Alfonso Marquez at first and with the typical rotation he would have been behind the dish last night. He wasn’t (thank God) and he was the alternate. I don’t understand how that worked but it was a great decision. Quinn Walcott got the assignment and he is one, if not, the best. I had him with about 5 misses but the UmpireScorecard had him with 11 misses. I didn’t see that. (I am losing my trust in that site). Regardless he was a massive improvement over Marquez.
I still see the ABS being delayed as they figure out what the strike zone should actually be. And the Challenge System instituted like that’s a forgone conclusion. I think that would be a major mistake for reasons I’ve previously stated.
If every ump was as good as Walcott, we wouldn’t need ABS and the little box on the TV screen.
The D-Backs are living a charmed life. I love their style but that performance from Merrill Kelly was remarkable.
So Bochy got stupid from Friday to Saturday. Maybe he’ll smarten up by Monday.
I looked at Montgomery’s postseason stats a few days ago and saw that WHIP. I rank Nola better than Montgomery and I’m not high on Nola.
I think AF should get Yamamoto and trade for a top shelf starting pitcher. 2 of these prospects should get it done: Vargas, Busch, Cartaya, Pages, Grove, Kopp, Ryan, Knack.
Then work on plugging the 2 and a half position player holes I see. DeLuca can platoon with someone in the outfield, that’s the half in the 2 and a half I talked about. AF has flexibility there because Betts can play infield or outfield and Muncy infield or DH.
I’d love to see Hader brought in too.
Hader made 14 million last year. If he goes after another closer, I would prefer Hicks. Younger cheaper and a great fastball.
What’s Hicks first name? I want to check out his stats.
I haven’t really looked at the free agent market. I used to, but getting knocked out early in the playoffs 2 years in a row has decreased my interest to do so.
Ok I found him. I think you’re talking about Jordan Hicks.
The problem with looking at last years stats is that there is no connection between last year and next year.
Hader had a 5.22 ERA in 2022 and in 2023 his ERA was 1.28.
I’ll bet he is closer to 5 than he is to one in 2024!
The Dodgers closer is under contract through 2027, and while he may not be the equal of Hader, Hader will command almost $20 Million a year, while Phillips will be less than half that… and he ain’t bad. It’s not a good allocation of resources and there are two more things to think about:
1. How long until Hader melts down; and
2. He is part of the dysfunctional Padres lockerroom.
No thank you!
Yep, Kid has a fastball that is 100 plus.
I look at career stats first and then recent years. Hader’s career stats are excellent but I hear you about the cost.
You could move Phillips (I think you’re talking about him) to the 8th inning. You can move anyone actually.
I don’t think Hader will get 20 million, more like 15 million per year but it will be a long contract, but I might be wrong.
2019 – Tommy John 28 Innings (31.14 ERA)
2020 – Did not play
2021 – Elbow 10 IP (5.40 ERA)
2022 – April -Right Wrist May – Forearm Strain (4.84 ERA) 61 IP
2023 – 3.29 ERA 65 IP 1.355 WHIP
Hicks scares me.
He would scare the crap out of me if I was hitting. I think with a little coaching, he could be really good.
The Bazooka may also be ready to take another step. He can be solid in the 8th or 9th as well.
I love his makeup.
Roberts was the one that left Lynn in the game after the 2nd then 3rd then 4th homerun and then he will take pitchers out that could throw a no hitter ! If you cannot see the consistent post season bad decisions then I am not sure what to say. Roberts may be a very good person but I for one would prefer championships when you have the most talented team not first round sweeps !! Talk about an organizational failure !
Sour grapes!
Hey guys, my ex passed away about an hour ago. She lived in Lake Isabella California. My daughters were with her when she passed. She had just gone back into the hospital this morning.
Sorry for your family loss.
Thank you.
Condolences to you and your family , Bear.
When you first wrote about how ill your ex-wife was and you heading over to help her I thought what a wonderful gesture that was. Thinking about my own ex-wife and the divorce we had and how she tried to estrange me from my daugher over all those years I would never have even thought about caring for ever again. Shows that not every divorce has to be a war.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks. The girls are all together along with her sister. They will get through this.