Once again, Bruce Bochy demonstrated why he is a genius. Bochy’s strategy was this: After his starter gave up five runs in 4.2 IP, he told the bullpen not to give up any runs the rest of the way. No one else on the planet would have thought of something so ingenious. Then, in the 11th inning, he whispered into Adolis Garcia’s ear. “If you hit a Home Run, that will win the game.” Well, the bullpen shut down the D-Backs and Garcia hit the walk-off home run! What a genius! Dave Roberts would have never thought of that. That proves that Bochy is the greatest. I know that some of you will believe that, so I have to have a “Sarcasm Disclaimer.”
By the way, Adolis Garcia was a “Dollar Store Pickup” like many of you want Andrew Friedman to stay away from. So was Mitch Garver, Jonah Heim, Austin Hedges, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, Brad Miller, Josh Sborz, Ian Kennedy, and even Aroldis Chapman who was supposed to be closer but lost the job back to Jose LeClerc as he put up a 3.92 ERA and blw 3 out of 7 saves. These kinds of guys are important to a team and you have to have them.
More on 2023
- Andrew Friedman said that 2023 would be a transition year before the season even started.
- The injuries to the starters (maybe Gonsolin was) were not predictable. To lose May, Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, and Gonsolin was devastating).
- The above would have killed any team in MLB – yet the Dodgers won 100 games – that was amazing!
- The idiocy that caused the Ace of the Staff to go into exile was random and not foreseen.
- Rebuilding the rotation would have meant the farm would take a big gutting, and why do that in a year of transition? Your best years are ahead.
- We know that ownership wanted to reset the Luxury Tax, but were unable to do so because (in part) of the late resolution to the Trevor Bauer Debacle.
- Owners expect a disbursement each year. The Dodgers have quite a few owners, including Guggenheim Baseball Management, Mark Walter, Stan Kasten, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton, Todd Boehly, Billie Jean King, Ilana Kloss, Alan Smolinsky and Robert Plummer.
- Every business (except non-profits) exists for the purpose of making money. Financial metrics like earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, help investors determine a company’s valuation and investment potential.
- The Dodgers owners expect a disbursement each year based upon the EBITDA. They have to get their dividends to justify the investment. With Guggenheim Baseball Management, they have a fiduciary responsibility to their investers to return a minimum amount each year.
- The Dodgers had an operating income of 14 million U.S. dollars in 2022. By contrast, the team had an operating loss of 7.9 million U.S. dollars in the previous year. Now, I know that this is all on paper, but it also affects how dividends or disbursements are made to the shareholders.
- Andrew Friedman is given a budget each year (and I believe that in 2024 it will be substantially higher than last year) with which to work. The longer the Dodgers stay above the Luxury Tax, the higher the Tax becomes (do see where I am going with this?).
- Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers were hit with a $32 million luxury tax for the second straight season. It will be higher this year. Corporations have to answer to their shareholders. Shareholders say: “That $32 Million could have been paid to us in dividends… WTF?“
- This is the reality of the situation. The Dodgers would love to reset the Tax this year, but definitely by 2025. Why?
This is from Wikipedia:
“Major League Baseball has a luxury tax called the “Competitive Balance Tax” (CBT). In place of a salary cap, the competitive balance tax regulates the total sum of money a given team can spend on their roster. Salary caps are common across professional sports leagues in the United States. Without these measures, teams would not be restricted on the amount of money spent on players’ salaries. Therefore, teams with greater funding or revenue would possess a competitive advantage in their ability to attract top talent via higher salaries.
MLB implemented the competitive balance tax in 1997 to reduce anti-competitive behavior in the league. The Commissioner’s Office sets the competitive balance tax threshold each year. Unlike other professional sports leagues, MLB allows teams to go over the threshold, however, doing so results in the team being charged a tax on all overages. Per MLB’s 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement, the overage premium for exceeding the competitive balance tax is tiered as follows:
| Consecutive seasons over threshold | Tax rate |
|---|---|
| 1 | 20% |
| 2 | 30% |
| 3 or more | 50% |
The luxury tax increases are based on the number of consecutive seasons above the CBT threshold. If a club “dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset.”[1] In addition to the luxury tax, “clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).”
The primary goal of the CBT is to encourage a competitive balance amongst teams while allowing big spending on players. The CBT threshold/tax rates have undergone several changes since 1997.”
So, it’s generally felony stupid to hit that 50% threshold, which the Dodgers will do if they go over the threshold, and this makes shareholders very upset… so there is that! Here is just a little context of why Andrew Friedman can’t always do what you think!
You forget if Dave Roberts was manager of Texas, Corey Seager would NOT have hit that home run.
I did forget that! 😉
Bochy’s boys are in the WS and just pulled off a great game 1 win. This condescension you show Bochy is beyond pathetic.
Yeah, I don’t get it.
Bochy could be a four-time champ in another week or so.
Recent comments by Manfred regarding ABS;
MLB is still trying to master automatic balls and strikes to the point that it could implement a challenge system for players, but that the last hurdles are determining how to adjust a digital strike zone from hitter to hitter and what exactly the strike zone should be. “What’s actually in the rule book is not what actually gets called. We have to come to an understanding of what it is we’re going to call,” Manfred said. “It’ll call any shape you tell it to call. But we gotta decide if you call exactly what’s in the rule book — is that the right shape? We have to think that through.”
Here’s my one thought on 2024: Muncy fits in perfectly as a DH or 3b/2b insurance for Busch/Vargas.
only if he goes to the eye doc this winter to get new contacts so he can see what a strike is or isn’t
Muncy can be maddening at times, but OPS is one of the best methods of gauging a player’s value, and Max Muncy had a .808 OPS. To put that in perspective, there were only 42 other players in all of MLB who had an OPS better than Max. FOURTY-TWO! Now, I don’t want a team of Max Muncys, but I want Max. Let him DH or play 2B and 3B – get him 500 ABs and he is an asset – we just need more assets.
I like Max at #5 or #6 and as JG says, we need Busch and Vargas to step up in 2024. They have to be part of the equation.
Muncy as “insurance” for Busch/Vargas assumes that Busch and Vargas can outplay him on the major league level, which at this point is wishful thinking.
There is simply no evidence to date that they can out-hit or out-field Max. Every Dodger fan wishes it were so, sure, but Busch and Vargas have only proven that they are stellar on the farm. If the Dodgers land Ohtani, Max is still the best option under contract to play 3B, possibly in a platoon with Chris Taylor.
A lot of positions are unsettled now, and the Dodgers clearly need front-line starters. Max could be a very attractive part of a trade package for a team that needs a middle-of-the-order bat who could play 1B, 3B or DH.
My guess, though, is that Max stays at 3B and fans complain about his defense and batting average while he piles up 35 HRs and 100 RBI.
Honestly, the Dodgers are a bit of a contradiction. You hear lots about payroll and getting under the luxury tax, right. Then the Dodgers are on verge of signing Justin Verlander last winter until the Mets rushed in and gave him more. Even Kershaw said he thought it was a done deal.
None of this, of course, makes any sense. The Verlander deal was reportedly $40 million.
So I pretty much don’t pay any attention to the luxury tax or the payroll.
There were stories last winter about the Dodgers being limited by the tax threshold. Then Friedman said there are no limitations and Kasten said for the right deal the Dodgers would not be handicapped.
Uh, okay.
Why is anybody talking about Bruce Bochy?
The discussion point here should be why didn’t the Dodgers hang onto Corey Seager?
He rejected their $260 million plus deal. Okay, but how do the freaking Texas Rangers outbid the LA Dodgers?
Somebody will toss in the California tax nonsense, but if I recall correctly, players pay taxes where they play the games that day. So if the Rangers play in California or Washington they pay the taxes of those states.
Plus LA teams are full of superstars who make big money. Still, they choose to play in LA.
Injury history? Length of contract? Money? All three. Maybe those were factors.
But hey, Seager is a clutch hitter, always has been. Who will ever forget the homerun to tie the game in Vinny’s last game at Dodger Stadium. Why did the Rangers think he was worth that contract and the Dodgers didn’t.
Coming into 2024, the Dodgers will start the season with a new shortstop, again. Four years in a row.
Hey, I liked Trea Turner, fun to watch, and he wasn’t worth $300. million. But that’s what he got.
Okay, I get it. We won a hundred games, but we let the 2020 MVP of NL championship and World Series walk. A player we drafted and developed.
Was it just a philosophical call. This is what we do and we don’t need to change. Everything is a coin toss. Eventually the coin will bounce our way and we’ll be back in the World Series.
Friedman could be right. But they need to be back next year.
I miss Seager. Would he have made a difference this year. No, not a chance. The pitching wasn’t there.
Would Bochy have made a difference? Not a chance.
So why are people talking about Bochy. Managers today manage personalities, cultural differences and expectations
Last time I checked, Bochy doesn’t pitch or hit. But the Rangers went all out to put together a championship team, apparently spending the money they needed to get the job done. Not everything worked, of course. There is Jacob DeGrom.
Will the Dodgers go all out this winter? If not this winter, when?
The Dodgers want to sustain their success, so they will go all out as possible, but not sink the team for the long term.
Maybe it’s just three players to spend that $100 Million on…
Too late to worry about them not signing Seager. That was two years ago, and it is old history. Yes, Corey is doing well in Texas. He obviously loves hitting in that ballpark. I would love to know the reasons behind passing on this player, or that one, but we don’t and probably never will unless AF writes a tell-all after he retires. By that time, I will be long gone. I am still trying to understand why they sold Duke Snider. I remember during the Phillies take down of the Braves how some here were raving about Nick Castellanos and how the Dodgers really whiffed not picking him up. Castellanos totally disappeared after his first at bat against the Diamondbacks, a homer. He struck out 10 times in his next 21 at bats and did not get a hit. There is a story on MLBTR that the Phillies are seriously considering moving him this winter. And the reason is his defense. The Cubs are expected to go very hard after Juan Soto. Seems they have little interest in pursuing Bellinger since they believe his price tag is going to be well north of 200 million. Soto won’t come cheap either once he becomes a free agent after 24.
In order to understand the present, Bear, I believe it is important to understand how you got there. The decisions you made, right or wrong, and why those decisions were made.
Often I wonder why the Dodgers did this and not that. Why the Rangers put so much value on Seager and not the Dodgers. Why the Phillies valued a long term deal for Bryce Harper and the Dodgers focused on a short term, higher dollar deal. Then turned around and gave Mookie Betts a massive long term contract.
Is it philosophical? Part of a grand plan? Is the plan flexible? Do the Dodgers ultimately believe the plan is the future, that luck or the law of averages eventually will bounce back their way and they will return to the World Series.
Stan Kasten always expressed a need to build a strong farm system in order to sustain success. The Dodgers have done that. Some teams would sacrifice the farm for short term gain. The Dodgers under both Ned Colletti and Andrew Friedman have never done that, which is smart. The farm is the key to long term success.
But I tend to wonder why and not just with the Dodgers, but with other things as well. I do understand the water has crossed under the bridge and is out to sea.
I wonder how all this will impact the winter. Will there be actual change as some LA columnists and writers have suggested.
I do find it interesting that every time somebody suggests signing a Jordan Montrgomery or Yamamoto, someone else will say AF will never do that deal, too much money or too long a contract. Not to mention Shohei Ohtani.
Maybe all this is a reflection of the past. Then again, at some point Friedman is going to do a lengthy high cost deal. It’s bound to happen.
If Seager had accepted the Dodgers offer, a damn good one, then we would not even be discussing this. In his 9 years in the majors, Seager had had full seasons or close to exactly three times. 16,17 and 19. 20 was an aberration. Maybe they were concerned with his injury history. Who knows. Seager has averaged a little over 100 games a year. That is a lot of money for a part time player.
So we’re to forget about why Seager was allowed to get away. After all it’s been two years and it’s old history but yet you’re trying to understand why the Dodgers sold Duke Snider.
Things that make me go huh????
Yeah, my priorities are screwed up, but the Dodgers made Seager an offer, good or bad, he moved on. Snider had no choice, had been with the team for 16 years and was a sure-fire Hall of Famer. I value Sniders contributions to the Dodgers and their history far more than I value Seagers. Yeah, I am glad Seager had one great World Series. Snider had more than that.
Interesting view of the Dodgers finances. While in Forbes they show a profit of only $14 million in 2022, the Dodgers are second in MLB with total Revenues of $581 million. After deducting the high payroll of $269 million, the Dodgers still have net revenues of $312 million!!
Somehow, the Dodgers have another $298 million in expenses to reduce operating profit to only $14 million.
Maybe the front office is actually making more money than the players? …Sarcasm.
Most likely, the true profitability in 2022 was well in excess of $14 million. And per Forbes, the franchise value of the Dodgers has increased from $2 billion when bought in 2012 to $4.8 billion in 2022.
I am not too worried about Guggenheim and the other owners disbursements.
The Dodgers were pretty close to resetting the luxury tax in 2023 and have a decent shot to reset it in 2024. I agree that they should reset it in the next two years, even though the team has incredible cash flow either way.
You may not be worried about the owner’s disbursements, but they are. Standard operating expenses are:
Real estate taxes, Property insurance, Utilities, Repairs, renovation and maintenance, Janitorial services, Property, management fees, General & administrative fees, Advertising and marketing fees, Payroll for 500+ employees.
Dividends are not considered part of a company’s operating expenses, which are tax-deductible, because they are paid out after all of the other essential expenses have already been met, including taxes. A dividend represents a portion of the pure profit a company has made at the end of a quarter or fiscal year. In other words, dividends are part of the net profit a company is left with, after it has deducted all of the expenses that went into generating that profit.
So, with $14 million of operating income, the shareholders are screaming! You may think this si not real, but they have to operate under GAAP or Generally accepted accounting principles.
The financial information Forbes uses are estimates from various sources. Forbes does not have access to financial statements at all, much less those prepared under GAAP.
I just looked at the Dodger summary and compared it to the #3 most valuable team the Red Sox. The Dodgers had $70 million more in revenue than the Red Sox, and a payroll
of about $30 million higher. So the Dodgers had $40 million more in net revenues than the Red Sox in 2022. However Forbes shows the Red Sox with $74 million profit compared to only $14 million in profit for the Dodgers.
Somehow, the Dodgers made $40 million more in net revenues than the Red Sox, but $60 million less in profit.
I do not pretend to understand the financial details of the Dodgers organization, but I find it hard to believe that they are hurting financially. Even if the owners are receiving zero in dividends, their franchise value is up 140% since they bought it 10 years ago.
I support the Dodgers resetting the luxury tax in order to allow them to avoid excess penalties, but in my view even at the current payroll, the team is in great financial health.
Some of the profit difference likely comes from amortization of the stadium upgrades.
Manfred loves the playoff system as it stands. He likes the unpredictability. Tony Clark, the President of the MLBPA is not as convinced. He thinks they can do better. I would gather that most fans, especially those of teams who won 100 or more games and got unceremoniously dumped in the Division series would agree. Things will undoubtedly change when and if they expand.
X, the former Twitter, is blowing up with uninformed Dodger fans lamenting the departure two years ago of Corey Seager. Damn, get over it people. It is over and done with. Sheesh.
I’ve left X for BlueSky.
Never heard of it.
You can read about it here, Bear:
https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/24/what-is-bluesky-everything-to-know-about-the-app-trying-to-replace-twitter/
Okay, but it is by invitation only. I get it.
Mark you sure have a low bar if one ring in Friedman’s tenure as well as past 35 years, plus getting embarrassed last two years when it really counts you call sustaining success and for those who call fans spoiled for wanting to win every year. Of course want to win every year but doubt there’s many who expect to win every year. How bout just one without the mask wearing. Can defend Friedman and Roberts til the moon turns blue and blame it on anything out there but it’s them and their players getting way outplayed when it matters most. For those out there that are content with good regular seasons Im happy for you but at least try to understand for some of us fans it’s not good enough. That’s it I’m done being upset with all the excuses, bring on 24
Not a low bar. I just realize how hard it is, and once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen.
The last four games of the season, the Rangers lost 3 out of 4 to the Mariners and almost did not make it. Earlier in the month of September, they were swept by the Astros. On the 15, 16, and 17th they lost a 3-game series to the Guardians.
The D-Backs were under .500 the last three months of the season.
… and yet, here they are. If that makes any rhyme or reason to anyone, I question their sanity – but that is baseball.
They weren’t out played in 2017. They were cheated on. That is a fact. Teams get hot, simple fact. The playoff system that has been in place the last two years is supposed to be giving the division winners an edge by allowing them to set up their pitching for the next series. Unfortunately, in a 3 of 5 series, that hasn’t proved to be the case. The Division series should be seven games. Embarrassed? Maybe. But the fact is they were simply beaten by a hot team.
* Good game last night. I can hear my dad’s voice in my ear saying “walks will kill ya”.
Sewald just can’t walk Tavaras to lead off the 9th to set up Seager’s game tying HR. Baseball Sin
The Garcia kid come through again.
* A 4 hour baseball game again. No speed up rules can make up for the 3 minute commercial and pitching change breaks.
* I’m actually listening to the ESPN Radio broadcast and sync it up with my TV, because John Smoltz drives my crazy. On the radio, I didn’t hear one prediction of what pitch was coming or second guessing of said pitch. NO Garrulous, non-stop verbal diarrhea. But I was forced to watch all 3 minutes of ads.
Look out, it’s Alfonso Marquez behind the dish tonight. How does he get a WS game?
I’d rather see Lt. Frank Drebin behind the plate than Marquez
I concur
If there’s any rhyme and reason possible is that whether win eighty something games or a hundred or more the regular season doesn’t count for much other than making the playoffs where everything gets ratcheted up, fans are their most excited and pumped up on edge of seat some even standing in their homes unable to sit. Jumping for joy after a victory. It’s all about the playoffs man. Hot stove, spring training are all fun especially regular season but it doesn’t compare to postseason. I might be the only one on here that’s really bummed bout last couple years but also know there’s countless others. Friedman, Roberts, the players they all stunk it up
Yes, the players stank it up, but I must have missed the part where Roberts and Friedman were playing.
Fans need to place blame. They love the players and dislike the manager and the guy who gets the players. IE Freidman. It doesn’t matter to them that neither Dave nor Andrew actually has anything to do with playing the game. It is all about the blame game. Someone is responsible for losing to two teams they dominated over the regular season. It isn’t because the Padres and D-Backs played better than the Dodgers did. Texas getting whipped tonight by those pesky D-Backs. USC won by the skin of their teeth. 50-49.
Scherzer will get the start on Monday in Arizona. Max is 8-0 against Arizona in his career. He has pitched 259 games at Chase Field. Almost forgot he was with Arizona his first two years in the majors. On the Dodgers web site, Juan Toribio says there are five pressing questions for the Dodgers this offseason. 1. Can the improve their starting pitching. 2. Will Kershaw be back. 3. Do they improve the position player side. 4. Will they pick up Muncy’s option? 5. Do they go after Ohtani. A. They have to improve the starting pitching. They are not going to even get to the playoffs unless they upgrade significantly. Only Miller and Buehler are lock’s and they do not really know what they will get from Walker. B. It is entirely up to Kershaw as to whether he returns, retires, or goes home to Texas to play. C. They need to upgrade in the outfield, and they need a better defensive third baseman. I believe they will use the trade route to fill one of those holes. D. Picking up Muncy’s option considering it is only for 14 million dollars is pretty much a no brainer. If they do not sign Ohtani, then he will DH a lot. If they do, he can fill in at 2nd, 3rd and give Freddie a day off. E. They will kick the tires on Ohtani and most likely make him some sort of offer, Getting our first snow of the year tonight.
6:00 a.m. here on the West side of the state and it’s snowing a bit here right now at 5,000 ft
Meanwhile….
Dodgers: Damon Keith, OF (Unranked), Glendale Desert Dogs
Keith put on a show at the plate on Friday night. He went 4-for-4 while picking up a double and a solo homer along the way. The 23-year-old outfielder’s stellar performance gave him the team lead in OPS. Keith hit just his second home run of the season but has been a consistent force at the plate, with a .298/.377/.533 slash line.
So maybe Damon Keith can be “a guy.” I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure he’s the guy that Dave Roberts discovered watching a small college game.
Another underdog to root for.