Friedman is About Six Steps Ahead

Posted By on March 6, 2023

Player salaries have been rising out of control in the past few off-seasons, driven by the San Diego Padres recent signings:

  • Fernando Tatis, Jr. – $340 Million
  • Manny Machado – $350 Million
  • Xander Bogaerts – $280 Million
  • Next up is Juan Soto, who wants more than $400 Million

Andrew Friedman knows that contracts like the ones given to Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, and even their own Mookie Betts are simply not sustainable for the long term. Betts was allegedly already a “Superstar” and he won the 2018 MVP in the AL with the following stats:

  • 129 Runs Scored
  • 180 Hits
  • 32 HR
  • 47 Doubles
  • 5 Triples
  • 81 BB
  • 91 Strikeouts
  • .346 BA
  • 30 SB
  • .438 OB%
  • 1.078 OPS

He has not come close to his old numbers since the Dodgers traded for him (except for HRs and Strikeouts). Two years before the Dodgers traded for him, he had a 1.078 OPS and a .915 OPS. As a Dodger, he has a .876 OPS. Make no mistake – he is still a star, but he used to be a Superstar BEFORE he signed a $365 Million Deal with the Dodgers. That type of occurrence is common. I am not going to list them all, but I will list a few:

  • Anthony Rendon – In 2018 and 2019, he hit 44 home runs, back-to-back. He parlayed that into a $280 Million Dollar deal with the Angels. Since then, he has hit 20 HR in 3 years… COMBINED!
  • Stephen Strasburg – In 2019, he pitched 209 Innings and almost single-handedly won the World Series for the Nationals after signing a $290 Million dollar deal. Since then, in three seasons, he has pitched a grand total of 30 innings, and the end is not in sight!
  • Mike Trout – Since the signing of a HUGE new deal in 2020, Mike Trout has been a superstar… when he is on the field. Since signing, in 384 possible games played, he played in 208 games!

The list goes on and on, and even if a player plays well, signing big-name free agents to huge deals has not been the path to the World Series. Some of you complain about Miguel Rojas and his career batting average of .260, but the Houston Astros won the World Series with eight players (mostly Platoon Players) hitting below .253 and one below .200.

As a side note, the Dodgers brought JDM to LA not only to be the DH but to see if he can have an effect on helping Mookie revert back to being a Superstar. They are pals, and hopefully, it will work. However, Andrew Friedman is not likely to give out another $300-$400 Million Dollar deal… and that includes Julio Urias or Shohei Ohtani. If it were guaranteed that they would be healthy and perform at previous levels, then Hell Yes, by all means, sign them. The problem is that there are no guarantees. A substantial percentage of free agents like Anthony Rendon will substantially underperform. Others will get injured and not play at all, and some, like Mookie Betts, will do OK but not great. The Dodgers lucked out on him… It could have been much worse.

I do not think Andrew Friedman is going to participate in this stupidity! He is going to continue to rebuild the farm… every year. He will make a Free Agent signing with low risk, like JDM and Freddie Freeman, at times and occasionally will sign a Big Name Free Agent. He will continue to do what he has done with starting pitchers like Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Noah Syndergaard, et al., and will hoard bullpen pieces, knowing that if he gets it right 50% of the time, he will have an All-Star Bullpen.

But, he will not be making that kind of Dope-Fiend Trade Dodger Fans so much want him to do. Think about this for a moment: If you look at the Dodgers’ Top Prospects, what is the time frame for them to be ready?

  • Diego Cartaya – 2024 or sooner
  • Dalton Rushing – 2024
  • Bobby Miller – 2023
  • Gavin Stone – 2023
  • Ryan Pepiot -2023
  • Mike Busch – 2023
  • Andy Pages – 2023 – 2024
  • James Outman – NOW
  • Miguel Vargas – NOW
  • Nick Nastrini – 2023 – 2024
  • Nick Frasso – 2024
  • Josue De Paula – 2025-2026
  • Rayne Doncon – 2026
  • River Ryan – 2024 – 2025
  • Emmet Sheehan – 2024
  • Yenier Fernandez – 2025
  • Maddux Bruns – 2025 – 2026
  • Eddys Leonard – 2024
  • Jorbit Vivas – 2024
  • Landon Knack – 2024
  • Ronan Kopp -m 2024 – 2025
  • Jonny DeLuca – 2024
  • Joes Ramos – 2024
  • Joendry Vargas – 2025-2027
  • Damon Keith – 2025
  • … and there are a whole lot more.

Progress is not linear. Some will arrive sooner. Some will arrive later, and some will not arrive at all. But Andrew Friedman has built a Prospect Factory that turns out players, and if he stays the course, he will not have to make a dope-fiend move for Rosario, Adames, Reynolds, or the like. It’s way too early to predict, but if everything goes according to plan, this team is going to score some runs… a lot of them… and consistently!

My Lineup (as of Today)

Versus RHP:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Freeman 1B
  3. Martinez DH
  4. Muncy 3B
  5. Smith C
  6. Peralta LF
  7. Vargas 2B
  8. Outman CF
  9. Rojas SS

Versus LHP:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Vargas 2B
  3. Freeman 1B
  4. JDM DH
  5. Muncy 3B
  6. Smith C
  7. Taylor LF
  8. Heyward CF
  9. Rojas SS

Ideally, the Dodgers need another RH batter, and that could be Andy Pages. But, damn, Bryan Reynolds would look great on this team. (Disclaimer: what follows may be a “dope-fiend move”) Maybe at the trade deadline, AF could trade Vivas, Busch, Peralta (and pay his salary), and Pepiot for Reynolds (only if he agreed to an 8-Year/ $200 Million Dollar deal.

This is my dream lineup:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Reynolds CF
  3. Freeman 1B
  4. JDM DH
  5. Muncy 3B
  6. Smith C
  7. Vargas 2B
  8. Taylor/Outman LF
  9. Rojas SS

That is one spectacular lineup.

Dodger News

  • Cut V-Gon some slack – he hasn’t pitched in two years.
  • Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were ranked the #3 Hitting Duo in MLB.Com

3. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Like Trout, Betts has dealt with his share of injuries throughout his career, but in 142 games last year, he led the NL with 117 runs scored while launching a career-high 35 homers to go along with an .873 OPS. If you asked Mookie, he’d probably tell you he expected better from himself — a scary thought for opposing pitchers.

Freeman, meanwhile, tied with Betts for the league lead in runs, while leading the NL with a .407 on-base percentage and leading the Majors with 199 hits and 47 doubles. The 2020 NL MVP finished fourth in MVP Award voting in ’22. In a Dodgers lineup that wasn’t upgraded this offseason, this duo will ensure big production continues from the L.A. lineup.

This article has 60 Comments

  1. Mark, I have not based my opinion of Outman on one spring week. In 2022 overall he hit .294, 31 bombs 106 rbi’s and an OPS of .978. And he plays a good defensive outfield. I just like the way the ball comes off his bat. He reminds me of when Belli first came up. Maybe by the deadline we have a better cf than Reynoldd

    1. Here’s what Outman is:

      He is a great “MISTAKE” hitter. When a pitcher makes a mistake with him, he does not miss. He can have a pretty good career as that (and you need those guys), but with elite pitchers, he has no chance. Of course, who does?

      This is not meant to be disparaging to James.

      1. Another factor to keep in mind re Outman.
        He was a relatively inexperienced baseball player when he was drafted in the 7th round out of Sacramento State, a weak program. Unlike Vargas, his dad wasn’t a star player. Unlike Busch, he wasn’t a first-rounder from at good program.
        Outman was drafted because scouts saw his ability. He was the proverbial diamond in the rough, uncut and unpolished.
        But Outman learned–maybe he watched and learn, to paraphrase someone here. He steadily improved. How many 7th-rounders make it to the Show? He got there faster than his peers Vargas and Busch, who have always rated higher in the prospect lists–and still do. And now Outman continues to show improvement.

      2. I’m a tad bit higher on Outman. To me he appears to be just finding himself while reaching for his next level and finding a grip. If he’s able to maintain that drive concept there’s a great chance he’ll make to ‘all that’. He has the tools but is he stubborn enough?

  2. Now THAT suggested Pirates trade is one I would sign on immediately.
    and very well that may be the reason it will not materialize.
    But I would be willing to throw in Grove too .

    On the Dodgers website they have article that suggests Shelyb Miller and Nelson to make the pen.
    So far I would rather see Rubby de la Rosa in the pen then either of the two mentioned.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

    1. Shelby Miller is going to have to show us something… so far he has nothing.

      Jimmy Nelson needs to pitch too. He could be on the IL for a couple of weeks into the season.

      BTW, Tommy Kahnle was shut down by the Yankees…. Just sayin’

  3. Really good piece, Mark. This site has been great to read recently. Thanks for keeping it open.

  4. We’ll see by the deadline where our needs are. But with the Lux injury, I think our long term need is at short rather than outfield. But if Ohtani can play short and pitch…….

    1. I totally agree. A young future star shortstop is more important to overuse on prospect capital than an outfielder. In my opinion Reynolds is not worth what the Pirates are asking for. He is not a player that will put the Dodgers over the top in pursuit of World Series ring. AF is not going to be on the wrong side of the majority of his trades.

  5. Progress is not linear. I’ve read that here about a hundred times. I first heard that in an education class at Chico State. Maria Montessori said it talking about children’s education. Made sense then. I understand why you continue to say it here but I could argue that to young baseball players it’s quite linear – they make it to their goal or they don’t. Looks like Vargas is going to make it. Outman? I think so, but in LA?

    Interesting that you have Heyward in there against lefties. He hasn’t hit anybody in a few years, but yeah sure, put him in. I’m still hopeful that Outman and Thompson would OPS .850 in a platoon there. But I’m an optimist. Ask patch.

    Still time for this roster to shape up, and maybe in ways none of us have considered.

  6. I leave the brain storming to people in the know. I think Heyward has done a lot to make his case for a roster spot. Thompson has not looked good at the plate. Hernandez has surprised some with the bat, but he made another really bad throw yesterday that cost them some runs.

          1. Well, that was deliberate. Thought it might light somebody up. I was wrong about that. I’ll try harder next time.

  9. 3:05 PM ET vs Padres

    Nick Martinez R
    0-0 .00 ERA
    Noah Syndergaard R
    0-0 .00 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Martinez R
    CF J. Heyward L
    LF Chris Taylor R
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    2B M. Vargas R

    Partly-cloudy-day
    0% Rain
    65° Wind 5 mph Out

  10. The only guy worthy of a dope-fiend move is Ohtani…
    With six outfielders (counting Taylor) possibly making the OD lineup, the Dodgers may not need Reynolds. He might be a fine pickup, if the price is right. We have a few months to figure this out.
    The real problem is that there are six of them–and only Taylor should be helping out in the infield. (Do we really want Mookie at 2B? ) The dedicated DH can’t play infield either. So it’s obvious that the Dodgers are thin in the infield–just one injury away from Yonny or Luke Williams taking over at SS or 3B. They might be OK, but the Dodgers should do better than OK.
    The Dodgers need another UT guy–a high-quality UT guy like Kike, not Hanser.
    Someone like the O’s versatile Ramon Urias, who won a Gold Glove at 3B while producing above-average. As I’ve mentioned recently, even O fans are proposing trades to help the Dodgers replace Lux.
    I still like SS Jorge Marte, but he might just be a younger, faster, more exciting Miguel Rojas. Ramon Urias, however, is a better hitter–and he can play SS and 2B as well as 3B.
    Urias has been pushed out of the O’s starting lineup by top prospect Gunnar Henderson, one of several strong infield prospects in the O’s highly rated system. But the O’s need pitching, and their OF seems a tad weak too.
    Max botched a couple of plays today–plays a gold glover would have made. Urias wouldn’t push Max out, but he’d be a great late-inning defensive replacement and could fill in while Max spells JDM at DH. (Side note: In 2022, JDM hit lefties MUCH better than righties. If this trend continues, a platoon could make sense.)
    I’m not sure how good Urias is at SS, but he is certainly a better hitter than Rojas. He’s also young, with I think 4 years of control still.
    An O’s blogger suggested Pepiot for Urias. But the Dodgers have plenty of talent they could use if they saw wanted to corner the Urias market. The teams match up pretty well, I think.

          4. A trade could happen easily if there’s another injury. I’ve read that various trade talks are on hold during the World Baseball tourney.
            I keep coming back to the O’s as a potential trade partner.
            By some measures, their farm system is just as good as the Dodgers. They are deep with infielders, but they need ML-ready pitching. When I look at their roster, I think they also need another OF bat–like maybe Peralta.
            If both sides are willing, perhaps the Dodgers could get Ramon Urias plus a quality SS prospect. Something like Grove plus Peralta plus Yonny could net Urias plus ???.
            No doubt other teams have good UT options. But Ramon Urias is really solid–a gold glover who hits righthander a bit of pop and a career OPS of about 730. Can play 3B, SS or 2B. If Max or JDM get hurt, he slides right into 3rd with a better glove. He’d see a lot of action if the Dodgers go get him.

  11. David Vassegh
    @THEREAL_DV
    Fernando Tatis Jr. is in #Padres starting lineup (RF) today. #Dodgers

  12. PS re Ramon Urias…
    He bats right-handed, so he’d help balance the lineup a bit.

  13. If the Dodgers traded for Reynolds they should put him in LF and Outman in CF and not the other way around.

    Reynolds could give the Dodgers enough offense to live with Rojas at short this year but the Dodgers will need to strengthen the offense at short as soon as 2024 even with Reynolds.

    An outfield of Pages, Outman, and Betts can’t arrive soon enough unless Betts moves to second and then who knows will join the outfield. Betts to second won’t happen if Lux winds up there in 2024.

    When is the soonest Peralta can be traded?

  14. JT just got smoked in the face with a pitch. Looks bad lots of blood. The baseball gods are letting it be known he just only suit up on Dodger Blue.

  15. KP
    That’s hardly appropriate. Just saying. Looked pretty bad.
    Praying to the only God that JT will be ok.

  16. Dodgers News: RHP Tony Gonsolin Injured His Ankle During Practice
    Some less than great news out of Camelback Ranch early on Monday morning. It appears that All-Star right-handed pitcher Tony Gonsolin has injured his left ankle during camp drills.

  17. Is it me or the umpire that I saw neither the 1st or 2nd pitch to Martinez as strikes?

  19. I don’t understand the fascination with Bryan Reynolds. He is a good but not a great player and he’s not really a CF. Last year he was a -14 defensive runs saved above average at CF according to Baseball Reference.com. He was a negative dWAR player according to Fangraphs as well.

    1. He’s only being talked about because he demanded a trade. Nothing to see here.

    2. I do have a fascination with him. I do not put a lot of stock into defensive stats… good or bad. I use the eye test and while he is not a great CF’er, he is Ranked #10 by MLB. He can play LF if need be. I am enthralled with his bat. I think if the Dodgers’ developmental people get with him, he is a .900 OPS player EVERY year. You are looking at what he as. I am looking at what he can be.

      In 4 MLB seasons, he has one year with a .880 OPS and 1 with a .912 OPS. The Pirates are a horrible team with terrible player development. Put him on a team like the Dodgers and he will bloom. I am always looking at what can be… not what is.

      Last year, Thor and Dustin May did not look so good. Fight about now, opinions are changing.

  20. Not a good day for the team as far as players are concerned. First JT ( he’ll always be a Dodger to me) gets hit in the face with a pitch. Then Tony Gonsolin injures his ankle in practice and then TT was released according to a 46 second video on ESPN stating ” Melvin feels for Thompson after his release”.

  22. The Dodgers on Monday made their first roster cuts of spring training, sending nine players to the minors, the day before the first official workout on the minors league side of camp at Camelback Ranch.

    None of the first cuts were on the 40-man roster. All were non-roster invitees, with pitchers Dylan Covey, Robbie Erlin, Bryan Hudson, James Jones, Landon Knack, Nick Nastrini, Nick Robertson, and Jordan Yamamoto, plus outfielder Yusniel Díaz were reassigned to minor league camp.

  23. I saw Buehler throwing at Camelback. Only threw for 5-10 min but with good velocity. Surprised me. The ump today had a very wide plate. Everyone complained. What happened with Hayward’s at bat? No explanation at the ballpark.

  24. Teams are starting to get injuries and WBC might open some possibilities for players. Time to shine.

  25. Mark’s post has a great rundown on the Dodgers’ pipeline of prospects, and when they’ll supposedly be ripe for the majors.
    That’s a lot of trade capital. Or is it a bunch of guys who’ll be under contract for years, holding down the payroll.
    I think it’s both. And it’s why AF will be in the bidding for Ohtani.
    He invested big money in Mookie. He also committed a hefty chunk for Freddie.
    But in recent years, he has steered clear of multi-year big money deals for pitchers. He hasn’t extended Urias, for example. And he must love Kershaw’s preference for one-year contracts.
    Ohtani could be the exception because he is both an ace pitcher and a stud slugger. Committing big $$ to Ohtani would be counterbalanced by having guys like Cartaya, Vargas, Outman, Busch and rising pitchers earn the minimum.
    Ohtani’s value extends beyond the playing field. To the extent that baseball is entertainment, he’s a big international star at a time that MLB is promoting the game globally. The Dodgers sell out regardless, but they might sell a million Ohtani jerseys between the US and Asia.
    Sometimes I wish the Dodgers were more like the Braves, who have locked up various young players with long-term contracts. If Julio and Will Smith were Braves, they might have those kind of contracts. But maybe AF figures that losing Smith is no big deal, so long as Cartaya or Rushing could slide right in.

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