James Outman on Track to Make the Squad

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1. Outman has looked great. I am impressed with how he has repeated his swing. Thompson finally got a hold of one yesterday. His timing has seemed off. But that is to be expected early in spring when the pitchers are way ahead of the hitters. Knack has some heat for sure. But it also is very straight. He is going to need to work on a pitch that moves. Kershaw had a good workout in the pen according to the announcers. No one knows when he is making his spring debut. Pepiot looked good. The Royals did tattoo a couple of his pitches though. I was impressed with how hard their hitters were hitting the ball. The acoustics in that ballpark made everything sound like it was crushed.

2. One week random observations:

   1. Outman seems poised to grab the starting CF job.
   2. Peralta looks lost (I hope you’re correct MT and he finds his swing).
   3. Pepiot is destined for AAA but he will get meaningful starts in LA this year.
   4. Where’s Bobby Miller?
   5. Knack is just another depth piece/minor league arm. Don’t seem him with any 2023 major league playing time but could be used in a trade package.
   6. Heyward will make the team.
   7. Vargas looks the part of being a major leaguer, lets just confirm that starting March 8 when he can start hitting.
   8. Where’s Almonte and V-Gon?
   9. So far Miller and Nelson…..meh (although Nelson has been inactive for quite sometime and his only ST appearance was on a wet mound–lets see what both offer as we progress through ST).
   10. I liked the way Grove pounded the strike zone. Like Pepiot he will get big league starts this year, but will start the season at OKC.
   11. Syndergaard might have to adjust and under Prior’s tutelage learn how to pitch and not just throw gas (his 98-100 MPH FB most likely is not returning).
   12. I don’t see any of the non-roster ST relief pitcher invitees making the opening day roster, but if they agree to a minor league deal some will get playing time this year in LA (Suero, Reed and Andriese might see LA this year).
   13. Duggar and Zimmer are the same player and both look ho hum to me.
   14. I can see Luke Williams being the first utility player called up when the inevitable injury happens. I like his offensive pop and versatility defensively.
   15. Who gets called up to catch if Will Smith or Barnes get injured? Do they start the clock on Cartaya or will it be Mazeike, Freitas or Feduccia?
   16. Love the pitch clock and the shift ban.
   17. AF has to find a way to keep Urias. Seeing JT, Seager, Bellinger no longer wearing Dodger Blue is sad, but it is a business and I get it.
   18. JDM has to have a monster year or fans will excoriate AF for signing him and letting JT walk.
   19. AF looks like a savant with the acquisition of Rojas now that Lux is lost for the season.
   20. As one of the icon ML franchises I would like to see the Dodgers have a similar uniform policy as the Yankees. I don’t mind the long hair and Mr. T starter kits around the neck, but lose the earrings. NBA doesn’t allow it and nor should MLB.

   1. Good post!

      11. Yeah, when I read that Thor is currently throwing 91, that told me that the likelihood of him returning to that pitcher who consistently threw 98-99 are probably over. When his arm is built up, he might reach 95-96. You’re right. Unless he learns how to pitch differently based on that new reality, then we’re likely to see the Thor of 2022 – a serviceable 4th or 5th starter, but not a bounce back success story like Anderson or Heaney last year.

      18. JDM is a risk. He’s old and has been on the decline the last couple of years. Sure, there’s a possibility that Van Scoyoc can turn him around, but you can’t escape your birth certificate. I have more confidence in the Dodger’s ability to rehabilitate pitchers. They don’t have as good a track record with hitters, and, as someone mentioned here, he can’t play any position, which limits the flexibility that Dodgers usually love. If he’s a flop, that creates issues.

      1. 1. He is in great shape;
         2. He is working on stuff with RVS, so the results are not immediate;
         3. He is three years younger than JT; and
         4. Last year’s issues were injury-related.

         I have every expectation he will return to form… but if he doesn’t, then the Dodgers have room for another player.

   2. Good takes!

   3. All of those non roster invitee pitchers are on minor league deals. Unless there is a clause in the contract stating they need to be called up to the big league club by a certain date, they will be reassigned to the minors. Those who are not will most likely be released.

3. The first week of games is exciting but it doesn’t tell me much. Still a lot of pitchers with high numbers on their backs. They will be sent to the minor league camps before too long. The last week of games will be more informative.

   1. They might not get sent out as quickly, and in the numbers we saw in the past due to players being at the WBC. Of course, there are not as many now since Clayton and Rojas are not going.

4. From The Athletic:

   “What are your thoughts on Gavin Lux making a full recovery for opening day 2024? – John D.

   As Lux was running from second to third his right knee hyperextended and bowed outward. An MRI confirmed the worst – a torn ACL with additional damage. This likely means there is LCL damage based on the mechanism of injury. The ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) is the primary stabilizer of the knee, connecting the femur to the tibia. The LCL (lateral collateral ligament) runs along the outside of the knee, providing stability on side-to-side movements.

   If this was an isolated ACL tear 9-12 months would be a realistic timeline to return. Because Lux is also dealing with additional damage his recovery is likely to bleed into the 2024 season. He could be available by Opening Day but won’t be 100%.

   Last season Ronald Acuña Jr. returned about 10 months after tearing his ACL. At times he looked like his old self, but there were stretches where that knee was clearly bothering him. Acuña should now be back to normal as he approaches the two year mark. Expect Lux to have a longer timeline than Acuña due to the LCL damage.

   1. Second base might be his best position for 2024.

5. I missed the memo that Vargas isn’t swinging the bat. I haven’t been doing my homework nor watching much. My fault.

   1. Too much talk, not enough listen?

      1. Sounds like you’re familiar lol

         1. Most of us are.

6. 3:05 PM ET vs White Sox

   Lucas Giolito R
   0-0 .00 ERA
   Julio Urias L
   0-0 .00 ERA

   Confirmed Lineup
   2B Mookie Betts R
   1B F. Freeman L
   SS Chris Taylor R
   3B Max Muncy L
   DH J. Martinez R
   LF D. Peralta L
   C A. Barnes R
   CF James Outman L
   RF B. Zimmer L

   Partly-cloudy-day
   0% Rain
   64° Wind 6 mph Out

   1. Outman did well yesterday as cleanup hitter.

7. I am not sure the Dodgers have enough offense to keep Rojas at short all year. If Lux won’t be ready to play short by June of 2024 if at all, there is a good chance the Dodgers will make a trade sometime between now and the trade deadline. My hope is such a trade doesn’t repeat the disastrous Deshields trade that cost the Dodgers Martinez, such as Stone.

   If Muncy and Martinez bounce back and Outman does better than Bellinger did last year the Dodgers might be able to keep Rojas at short. But that M & M duo sure isn’t close to the Yankees old M & M duo. I thought I would mention that for no apparent reason.

   1. Stone won’t be traded and you can trust AF to not make a dumb trade.

      1. I agree about Stone. He’s essentially untouchable.

      2. I hope you are right but who knows who Friedman might pursue.

         1. Doesn’t matter. AF won’t trade Stone. He is as close to an untouchable as there is. Some of the guys below him might be available. But no Stone.

   2. The value of a player is not always apparent from the box score. Miguel Rojas does not need to replace Trea Turner’s offense, but he could easily replace his defense.

      If Miguel Rojas can just have his average year (.260) and bring his .669 OPSat 9th he could be a valuable player. Baseball Reference projects him at .247 with a .303 OB%. That doesn’t sound great… and it is not, however, they project him with 24 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, and 44 RBIs.

      Baseball Prospectus projects him at .256 BA with a .309 OB%. Now, we all know that projections are seldom right.

      Steamer projects him at .255/.306 with 11 HR and 60 RBI, while ZIPS projects him at .256/.307.

      So, I think it’s safe to assume that Rojas will hit .240 to .270 (RVS and Company COULD help him improve), but here’s the key: He does not stike out a lot! When a player strikes out, nothing good happens. When a player flies out or grounds out, there is an opportunity to move runners that is not available when a batter strikes out.

      Last year, the Dodgers had a lot of players that struck out a lot, led by CT3 (160) and Bellinger (150). Muncy, who is now healthy, struck out 141 times, and even Trea Turner struck out 131 times. In 425 AB Gavin Lux struck out almost 100 times.

      Bellinger is gone. Gallo is gone. Trea is gone, and CT3 had better clean up his hitting or he might go too. Two of the replacements are the Miguels, who (combined) may strike out less than CT3, Belli, & Trea did individually. That is why the Dodger Offense was “all-or-nothing” last year. Runners got on base only to be stranded because everyone was striking out… not moving runners. Trayce Thompson strikes out too much.

      With Rojas batting 9th, he will move some runners that got stranded last year. The same is true with Vargas and if James Outman can just cut down his strikeouts a bit, this 2023 version of the Dodgers will be more consistent in scoring runs. We have to watch it play out!

      1. Rojas does not have to replace Trea’s offense–agreed, but someone does! Those someones are all comeback player of the year candidates or rookies who have yet to prove themselves in the Majors.

         1. All they need are up ticks in production from Muncy and Taylor, a real JD Martinez type year and solid contributions from outfielders not named Betts. They will be fine. Watch Moneyball. Beane knew he could not replace all three free agents he lost, so he got guys with OBP’s that were as good if not better.

      2. Rojas puts the ball in play way better then Taylor or Thompson do. Remember last year we would get a guy to second base on a double first hitter. And then the next three guys in the Dodgers order would strike out rather then get the runner over. And then get the run home. Rojas bunts hits the ball in play or gets a hit. A perfect number nine hitter for then the top of the lineup to bat. That will be the difference this year then last year Bellinger batting ninth and striking out or hitting it out. They won’t trade for shortstop until mid season after they can see how other shirtsops are doing. And which player will be free agents to then sign them and not let get away. Then Lux will go to third or second base in 2024. And you have Rojas as the utility guy then. Then the off season will be. Then find an everyday left fielder who can hit lefties and righties. And then Outman and Betts in the other outfield positions. Just which shortstop will it be that fits the look of a Dodger and we’ll plays every day.

   3. That’s why I went ahead and made that Rosario trade we talked about Bum.

      1. I agree to that Rosorio is it then sign him long-term but just wait until the deadline. The guardians have guys in the minors to bring up at shortstop. The Dodgers don’t.

      2. I’m glad I was able to switch Busch for Outman before you made that trade.

      3. I would rather have Rojas than Rosario, and here’s why:

         Rosario has a slightly better BA than Rojas (.274 on his career, but the OB% is about the same (.308) while he strikes out a lot more than Rojas. 13% vs. 21%. I might sign him as a Free Agent for the right price, but why trade prospects you might regret for a guy whose OPS is about 0.50 better?

         1. I’d rather have Rosario for these reasons: he’s 7 years younger and he’s a better hitter.

            1. No argument about that, but does he make us better at the expense of a couple of good prospects?

               I would rather keep the prospects. I have a feeling that Cleveland would want a couple of significant ones.

            2. Not as much as you might think.

               Does he make us that much better? I think so. We get a starting 4 WAR shortstop for a couple guys we aren’t going to use, and Rojas goes back to what we hired him for. If Rosario fits here, maybe we extend him.

8. Last year the Dodgers had the black hole gang of Belli, Muncy, and Taylor and still won 111. I think Muncy and Taylor improve and Outman/Heyward give way more offense than Belli so I think the lineup will be fine with Rojas. JDM needs to produce tho! I think his bat is crucial. And fangraphs projects us with 87 wins before the Lux injury! What? Even after Lux I have us 90 low and 95 high end in 23.

   1. Fangraphs knows Jack and shit and Jack just left the building.

9. Bobby – did you catch the game earlier?

   1. beyond horrible.

      Let’s hope the Dodgers and Lakers now can change my mood

      1. Yeah was a horrible performance but tbf they won a Cup last week, and are much improved this season.

         Things definitely going in the right direction.

10. If this Outman kid is a fourth or fifth outfielder then I want to know who the first three or four are!

    1. Dude looks great this spring.

    2. Trout, Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Julio Rodriguez.

    3. Cassidy,

       I will love it if he is better than a 4th outfielder, but I formed that opinion over a couple of years. On the other hand, you make that decision after seeing him for a week. I hope he does solve the CF issue, but no rational baseball talent evaluator is going to make an accurate evaluation after a week… not even AF.

       1. Depends on where he’s playing. In Cleveland he starts.

          1. Isn’t that where Rosario resides?

             1. At least part of the year. I’m sure he winters elsewhere.

       2. Options make the heart grow fonder.

       3. He had a pretty good year in OKC last year! I just love the way the ball jumps off his bat. He reminds of when Belli first came up.

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