I see so many websites and blogs that analyze the Amateur Draft until they are paralyzed. Get that: Analyze until you are Paralyzed! They look at these young men like a proctologist looking for something I don’t even want to discuss. Look, these are young men… actually kids, in many cases, and while it is fashionable to say “he projects…” or “his stuff will play up” or whatever else they say. I say, “who the hell knows?” I maintain that a monkey throwing darts at prospect names is probably more accurate than a so-called MLB Amateur Draft Pundit. But they still do it because… well, they can, and they like it… evidently.
Here are my predictions:
- Some players will be much better than we thought;
- Some players will be much worse than we thought; and
- Some players will be about what we thought.
If you think Max Muncy has a bad batting average, the guys who predict this stuff make Max look like Babe Ruth! There are some famous names in the Dodgers selections, namely 6′ 7″ Jared Karros, who, unlike his father, is a pitcher, and Kyle Nevin, who, unlike his father, is not a manager! I will weigh in on some obvious things. Here’s the full list of Dodger Draft Picks without all the GobblyGook Words:
Dalton Rushing (6′ 1″/210-DOB:2021) – First Pick at #40
Dalton is a solid LH-hitting Catcher from Louisville who was ranked as the third-best catcher in the draft. To get him at #40 could qualify as a “steal.” He is a catcher.
Alex Freeland (6′ 2″/200-DOB:2001) – 3rd Round at #105
Alex is a switch hitter and was a SS at the University of Central Florida, but just about every outlet and pundit thinks he will be a 2B or 3B. Baseball America ranked him #249. Overreach? Time will tell…
Nick Biddison (5’10″/190-DOB 2000) – 4th Round at #136
Nick is a RH outfielder from Virginia Tech who was not listed in the top-500 draft prospects at Baseball America. He has played both corner OF spots as well as 1B and 2B.
Sean McLain (5’11″/170/DOB: 2001) – 5th Round at #165
Sean is an RH Shortstop from Arizona State who has played 2B, CF, and 3B. Currently, he lacks power but doesn’t strike out much. BA ranked him as the #183 Prospect. It’s doubtful he will stay at SS.
Logan Wagner (6’1″/200 /DOB: 2004) – 6th Round at #195
Logan Wagner is another SS out of Academy High School in SC. He is committed to Louisville, so whether he signs with the Dodgers is problematic. I can tell you this: He is not a SS.
Christopher Campos (5’10″/170/DOB: 2000) – 7th Round at #225
Christopher is allegedly a SS out of St. Mary’s, but I think he may pitch (think Gonsolin and Byrnes). Even though he is listed as a SS, he may not play there.
Taylor Young (5’9″/170/DOB: 1996) – 8th Round at #255
A RH out of Louisiana Tech, Young led the country in runs scored and stole 28 bases in 30 attempts. He was named his conference MVP. He is listed as a SS and could stay there.
Brandon Neeck (6’1″/190/DOB:1999) – 9th Round at #285
Brandon is a LHP out of Virginia, and the only one drafted in the first ten rounds by the Dodgers. He had Tommy John in 2019 and is a strikeout artist. He has started and relieved but seems to have a relievers’ profile.
Simon Reid (6’1″/200/DOB:2001) 10th Round at #315
Simon is another LH Catcher who played for Westmont College. He has had some amazing stats, but you have to consider the competition.
Kyle Nevin (6’4″/200/DOB:2001) – 11th Round at #345
Son of Phil Nevin, Kyle is a RH hitter out of Baylor
Jacob Meador (6’0″/183/DOB:2000) – 12th Round at #345
Jacob is a RHP out of Dallas Baptist. I have no idea what he can do. He was first drafted by Seattle in 2019. He appears to be destined for the bullpen.
Chris Newell (6’3″/200/DOB: 2001) – 13th Round at 405
A LH CF’er out of Virginia and Baseball America had him ranked at 237.
Jose Izarra (6’0″/175/DOB:2002) – 14th Round at 435
Jose is a RH SS out of Venezuela via Florida Southwestern State College.
Nicolas Perez (6’0″/175/DOB:2004) – 15th Round at #465
Nic is a Puerto Rician SS who is a RHH and is said to be “projectable” – whatever that means. BA had him ranked at #203.
Jared Karros (6’7″/195/DOB:2000) – 16th Round at #495
His dad talks too much, but Jared is a RHP out of UCLA. Some say he is a prospect, some are not so sure. He hasn’t pitched for over a year due to back issues. We shall see.
Payton Martin (6’0″/170/DOB:2004)- 17th Round at #525
Marty is a RHP and middle infielder out of West Forsythe HS in NC who has committed to East Carolina. He bats from the right side
Cameron Decker (6’1″/205/DOB:2003) – 18th Round at #555
Cam is another switch-hitting SS out of Evansville North HS in Evansville, Indiana, and is committed to UCF. Who knows what is next?
Chris Alleyne (5’10″/190/DOB:1998) 19th Round at #585
Chris is from Don Mattingley’s hometown, so he is trash! Just Kidding! He is a switch-hitting CF’er who played at Maryland and is very fast… as in stolen-base fast! Baseball America had him ranked as #398.
Carter McCulley (6’4″/185 /DOB:2004) – 20th Round at #615
Carter pitched and played SS for Pensacola Catholic HS. He may be hard to sign as he is committed to Pensacola State College. He also plays CF.
Dodgers Draft Tracker
Overview
The first pick (Dalton Rushing) looks like a solid pick, and beyond that, I have no pet players. Quotes from parents, teammates, and coaches are slanted and biased with no rational basis. You can watch video, but even that is skewed to the level of competition. I prefer to use the “eye test.” Let’s see what they do. It looks to me that maybe four (or more) players will not sign… To rank this draft as good, bad or mediocre is ridiculous. While college players are easier to assess and “project” it is far from a science. It’s more of an “art” but even that is not a worthy comparison.
I have seen too many “can’t miss” players… miss and I have seen players come out of nowhere to be superstars. The development of these players is what I find fascinating. There were times that I thought Jeren Kendall and Gavin Lux were the same guy, but Gavin was able to transcend his weaknesses and Jeren is still fighting his weaknesses at Tulsa. It’s sad to see a player with Jeren’s talent have their progress stalled. Jeren will be 27 before next Spring and is hitting .179 at AA.
It appears that the Dodgers feel they have plenty of pitchers so they decided to re-stock their position players. I think that is a logical move. Dalton Rushing (in particular) and Chris Alleyne could move quickly… or not!
All-Star Gala
It’s really not a game. It’s not serious, but I watch it. Kershaw’s pickoff of Ohtani was the highlight and Gonsolin’s meltdown was the lowlight. Is this the beginning of Catman’s meltdown or just a blip on the radar?
If You Think Clayton Kershaw is not Special, Don’t Read THIS
Kershaw looked masterful in his inning last night. It was awesome that he got to start the game, in his home stadium and he didn’t disappoint. Picking off Ohtani was hilariously funny especially because of that big smile on Ohtani’s face while he was diving back. I’m getting chuckles right now just thinking about it. If you don’t want to cry a little, don’t read that article that Mark linked to. Clayton is a very good person. It’s great to have him represent our favorite team.
Yes, Gonso blew the game in his one inning. He threw a cookie to Stanton and he launched it out of there. But, Byron Buxton hit one out that no one should be able to hit. If those two could only stay healthy, they sure have all the talent in the world.
Overall, the game was entertaining. I really liked all the personalities that you got to see and hear with the players on the microphone. It reminded me of watching my kid and his buddies play as teenagers. I used to get a big kick out of all of their conversations and smack talking on the field.
Dodger stadium looked like the crown jewel that it is while hosting All-Star festivities. What a great place to play the Mid-Summer Classic. The weather and views were perfect for a ballgame.
Now, we’re back to another off-day which usually means a crazy day on this site.
I can’t wait for the next series to start. A 4 gamer against the Giants at home. What’s a better way to come out of the break?
Mark recently mentioned that Miguel Vargas is still with the team after his futures game showing. It got me thinking as to when and how we’ll get to see his debut and for the life of me, I just can’t see how they can squeeze him onto this already-packed 40-man roster AND get him steady playing time. On the one hand, a home series with a 10 game lead in the division is about as soft a landing as we can ask for. The other hand says, it’s not gonna happen with JT hitting and playing stellar defense at 3B and a productive platoon in LF with Trayce and Lamb.
As far as the playing time goes, I guess you can always sit Belli or Muncy against lefties and shift Thompson over to CF and play him in LF. But, that’s not going to give him a lot of playing time. Does anyone think it’s a good idea to shuffle him between LF, 3B and DH? Are the Dodgers motivated to call him up before the deadline to showcase him to the Nats or Reds? I guess it’s easy enough to cut Eddie Alvarez and send Z-Mack back down to the minors to make roster room, but playing time seems to be a whole other story.
I might have to buy some Nationals gear with all the former Dodgers they’re going to have on that team.
Did Gonso do enough to push the Dodgers into a Castillo deal? I really liked watching 99 come out of his arm during last night’s showcase. Speaking of Tony G. It seems he can throw that FB at 95 whenever he wants to. Why do we see so many in the 92-93 range? He needs to step on the gas a little more on that pitch.
Walker Buehler is just about to complete week 5 of his 6-8 week shutdown. I really don’t see how he’ll be back before September.
Dustin May began his rehab assignment on Saturday by pitching two innings in the Arizona Complex League. So, he should be up for another start in a day or two. We should see him back in the first half of August if all goes well.
Zach Reks Signs With KBO’s Lotte Giants
Good for Zach
Ironic. DJ Peters went from the Dodgers to the Rangers in 2021 to the Lotte Giants in 2022. Zack took the exact same path. Looks like the KBO Giants will have two former Dodger farm hands in the OF.
I certainly teared up reading that article. Fun to watch Clayton enjoy the moment. When was the last time you saw him smile during a game(never). He certainly was amped up. Just missed by about 2 inches from ending the inning on 8 pitches. That curve missed call strike 3 by a couple inches. Then the walk. It was fun
One of the things that stuck out to me last night was how much better the umpiring is when you have the cream of the crop out there. I think the home plate umpire might have missed one of two last night but other than that he was spot on.
Castillo did look nasty in the ASG–and supposedly the Yanks are interested. That’s not enough of a reason to go for him… but it’s not nothing either.
It’s kind of funny how some of here veer from the notion that “the Dodgers have enough pitching” to the adage “you can never have enough pitching.” It’s great that Gonsolin and Anderson were all-stars, but are they up to Castillo in terms of talent? I think Gonsolin will be fine. But he sure missed his spot to Stanton.
I enjoy the draft with all of its quirks and mystery. For two season Rushing was the backup to last year’s No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis. So in the post-Barnes era, Rushing could be Cartaya’s backup while Smith plays 3B. Maybe he’ll DH too. Depth at catcher is one reason the Dodgers have Trea Turner at SS now.
What’s the deal with Nick Biddison? What do the scouts see in the 4th rounder who wasn’t ranked in the top 500 by other evaluators?
Always good to remember that late draft picks can persevere and succeed. McKinstry is one. The Angel’s Jared Walsh is another.
And of course there was Lasorda’s godson…
I hope this one inning doesn’t scar Catman for the rest of the year, let alone, for life! (I know, I know, a wee bit exaggerated.)
I just hope he is able to leave the past in the past….that has not always been easy for me to do, so I hope he is better at it.
TM
It’s getting too hard for me to read this damn computer screen. Hopefully this won’t be the case after my upcoming eye surgery/surgeries.
Oh, one more comment….I’d be interested in trading Bellinger and 3 top prospects for CLASE. Make it happen….let it be so!
I like our chances much more, in the playoffs, if he were on the team. Of course, I’m sure he is not for sale.
OK, it will be Pepiot, Knack, Stone, Bellinger, and $8 Million Dollars (to cover Belli’s salary), or you can leave Bellinger out, and it would be Pepiot, Knack, and Stone.
Why would Cleveland trade him? They will be buyers this year,that division us up for grabs. I’m sure he could be had but you’d have to blow them away and overpay IMO.
Pretty fun event last night. Still a little to glitzy for my taste but better than the Home Run Derby. Nice to see CK have a good inning and for him to check this box. Not so good for Tony. Cat-man-don’t.
I really liked the in game microphone use for the most part, especially between the pitcher and his catcher.
Certainly the uniforms were better than those horrible Futures Game duds. I actually liked the All-Star Game uniforms, especially the home whites with the gold lettering. MLB obviously cut back on expenses by using those mesh caps for everything since Spring Training. B&P tell me again how you wear yours every day because they are cool.
(I bet you were waiting for me to go there since the hats surfaced for the Futures Game. I couldn’t resist)
You need to buy one and wear it for a while and then tell me how comfortable you think they are. I have many pro-fit caps. That’s my favorite one to wear when it’s hot outside.
I might still have a mesh cap in the attic from the 80’s. The ones with the form crown with racing stripes and the mesh backs. I might try a new mesh hat if they were $3.99. Sadly, the All-Star mesh caps are $47.99. They are not that cool in a number of ways. How much are the ones that say “John Deere” on them?
I hope Cody and Max hung out around the stadium the last few games and got some tips from the good hitters around the league.
Stanton’s swing on the Gonzo meatball was textbook. I’m Phil noticed that his head didn’t move an inch. I love short swings. Belli, pay attention!
Why are people sending Belli out in a trade with no suggestion on who’s gonna man CF once he’s gone? Right now, I don’t give a crap about his offense. He might be the most productive 200 hitter in the league.
When comparing him to Bryan Reynolds, he’s got more runs scored, just one less RBI, 2 less extra-base hits and way more stolen bases and is a better defender. Yet, people want to replace him with Reynolds who is also older and has never come close to 30 HR’s.
I’m fine with leaving Belli in CF and letting him bat last. Hell, we kept Joc until he hit free agency. Joc is hitting 143/245/214 in July.
I don’t think I saw Bellinger at the all star game but I’m pretty sure Joc was there. .647 vs .848
Looking just like Belli minus the speed, defense and arm. 0-2 with 2 K’s.
Speaking of Mr Bellinger. Are the Dodgers obligated to offer him a contract next year or can they DFA him? He certainly isn’t worth anywhere near 17 mil.
No way they DFA him. He is a year away from free agency, 27 years old and the best defensive CF in the league. Seriously Cassidy, I think you have taken leave of your senses. If they decide to move him, it would be in a trade. You do not DFA former MVP’s who are that young and talented.
Just because he isn’t hitting now does not mean he won’t hit again.
Tyler Anderson could never pitch very well… until someone helped him “flip the switch.”
Bellinger has hit well in the past… being a ROY and MVP.
If you have done it before, you can do it again. WILL HE? That is the question, but the talent is there.
If he continues down this path the rest of the season… and I expect he will, in the offseason, the Dodgers will talk with him and see what kind of “offseason work” needs to be done.
You may think it’s OK to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I prefer to keep the baby!
Here’s my trade and sign proposal for Soto –
Miller, Bush and a lower tier prospect.
Ink him to an extension for 5/45. He’ll be 28 when he’s a FA again and is free to sign another 7-8 year deal. By that time the going AAV for a top free agent will be 40-45.
By the end that contract he’ll be 36 – still an opportunity to sign another 2-3 year deal.
He could easily take in over 600 million over his career.
These long term deals work in the interests of the agents, not necessarily the client.
DP,
Just so I am clear, you are saying $45 Million a year for five years, which is $225 Million. IF we could get that done for Busch, Miller, and a lower-level prospect, I would do it.
I doubt the Nats would, but they might! I would do it now and start that raise NOW!
1. Betts RF
2. Soto LF
3. Turner SS
4. Freeman 1B
5. Smith C
6. Turner 3B
7. Muncy DH
8. Bellinger CF
9. Lux 2B
That would be fearsome.
It would also take all the pressure off Belli and Max…
That is a spectacular lineup, and the idea of 5 for 45 instead of a single contract for 15 years and all the money in the world, is very good, very original, I think no one had thought of it. Too bad I don’t think Boras likes it
That lineup looks very spectacular, almost as much as it looked at the beginning of the season in which everyone said it was the most powerful lineup in all of history, of all time, of all worlds, of all galaxies, and even so, another powerful hitter is still needed
Jorge, go look at the standings.
The Dodgers will probablyl win the division easily at this point. I’m looking at the possible playoff opponents. The Dodgers can put it all together and beat the Yankees or the Trashtros, but the Yankees have the edge offensively.
Yes, 45 AAV for 5 years. This would make him the highest paid player per year in baseball. … AND … he’d be still at his peak when he’d be eligible to sign another mega contract. He’d be younger than Trea Turner is now.
The Dodgers would overpay for his five prime productive years and have the option to walk away. He would have the option to sign a bigger deal. Top contracts TODAY are paying 35 AAV. What’s the going rate of inflation in baseball? I imagine the typical top AAV in five years is going to be 45…maybe 50.
Bora$ won’t do it in a thousand years, but if Soto is willing to bet on himself, he could wind up getting much more than he would if he signed long term at today’s going AAV rate.
It’s what AF tried to do with Bryce Harper.
Miller is the pitching prospect I’m most ok letting go.
I think it will take much more than Miller/Bush.
Washington will ask for Cartaya and at least one of either Pepiot, Miller, Bush, Vargas or Pages. Plus another 2 or 3 chips further down the prospect list. Somebody will off them 2 of their top 5. And I know, Washington has Keibert Ruiz. But the universal DH changes things in the NL. Cartaya’s bat is more valuable that his glove. I have zero doubt they would demand him in any trade.
The Athletic speculated that Lux would be at the center of a trade to the Dodgers. Even then, it would take a pile of prospects.
I don’t see it. I could see the Dodgers getting creative when Soto is a FA. But I think that will depend on where Trea ends up. I see the Dodgers working to resign Trea to a AF type frontloaded contract as much more likely.
They can ask. I think it’s generally acknowledged that Cartaya is a better overall prospect than Ruiz, and he was the chip that got 1.5 years of TT and the best pitcher in baseball at the time. I’d throw in Pages.
The price for Soto limits the pool of potential suitors. – Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, who else? I don’t think the Nats are going to trade to the Mets, and, although Soto would be a nice fit in SF, and they’ll have money to spend, Farhan is in organizational building mode right now and is not going to dip into an already lackluster farm system.
This kind of front loaded scheme is more attractive if done now. A 28 year-old FA has more value than a 30 year old FA, and the possibility of signing another huge contract at 28 would be enticing if I were Soto.
It creates some interesting leverage possibilities, too. Imagine if the Dodgers make the trade and throw that offer on the table to Bora$. If he turns it down and waits till FA, then he just left 90 million on the table. Assuming Soto gets an ARB salary of around 20 million, that’s still a net loss of 50 million for those two years. He can’t get those years back, so instead of 15 years of top earnings, he’s going to sign a 13 year contract and get maybe 40 AAV for 525. He could potentially earn over 600 if he if he bets on himself a little.
Thank you, Mark, for not making me skip a 10,000 word essay on the draft. MLB draft might be the most boring draft in pro sports. NBA and NFL players make an immediate impact directly following the draft. MLB takes years to even know what you got, as you stated. I only pay attention to guys when they start moving up the system. Pointless waist of time before that.
You mentioned Jeren Kendal. He might have been the most highly anticipated pick in a very long time. The previous year there was talk of him going from 1-5. In hindsight, the scouts for the 22 teams that picked before the Dodgers got it right.
In 2017 I watched Kendal struggle, badly, for the Quakes. At the same time a player in the Angels system starting tearing up the Cal league. Jared Walsh was drafted in 2015 in the 39th round. 1185th overall. He was an All Star last year for the Angels. I simply won’t waist any time reading about the MLB draft.
Just an observation regarding Bellinger. I think many of us on LADT are “frustrated” to see such a talented player struggle for reasons that aren’t clear; injuries; stubbornness; poor hitting coaches; etc. I know I get “exasperated” watching him perform at this level knowing what he accomplished earlier in his career. As an athlete with average talent myself, I have always been troubled watching superior athletic talent unrealized.
I do, however, agree with Mark, B&P and others that he still adds value to this team because of his defense and baserunning. We are fortunate to have a lineup that has the ability to score enough runs to win 2/3 of their games without consistent contributions from him. And, there is always HOPE that he can find his way back to the performance level we have seen before. So, I will continue to pull for him this year….
I have accepted what Bellinger has become offensively. To eliminate frustration I have accepted that he’ll be what he is right now. A .200 hitter who will hit 20-25 HRs, have 70-80 RBIs and have a K rate of 30%+. Along with his GG defense and speed he will be a average to slightly above average player. He will be a player that doesn’t give a crap about being a team player and doing what it takes in every AB to help the team win. He’ll continue to swing from the heels regardless of the situation. After all, he’s Cody Bellinger, MVP. If not traded at the trade deadline (which I highly doubt) I can see him being moved in the offseason. If he as delusional with his contract expectations as he is with his approach to hitting then I don’t think the Dodgers can afford him. Thus a trade.
Carry On
One of the Dodger blogs is carrying some highlights of the draftees, including a very impressive diving catch by Alleyne and Nevin robbing an HR.
Alleyne and Young are both 23, so they should come cheap. Also Nevin sounds like he is ready to sign. Maybe they’ll save enough to give the high schooler Logan Wagner a big bonus to keep away from Louisville. And the pitcher Meador seems like a perfect Dodgers project–wicked stuff, poor control.
It would be fun to ask Gasparino why Dodgers used their 3rd pick on Biddison, a guy not rated in the top 500 draft prospects. His hitting stats seem comparable to Alleyne, who was drafted in the 18th round–and looks faster with a better glove. Go figure.
Regarding Biddison, you answered your own question. So they can spend over slot on Wagner. 😉
Bullsear, Catnip!
On Cody Bellinger:
Does anyone believe Bellinger likes how he is doing? Do you really think that? If so, you are dumber than a bag of hammers.
I have personally talked to people close to the team, who say… if anything, that he is TOO RECEPTIVE to advise!
It really pisses me off when morons say he is too stubborn! You are too stubborn to understand!
Playing baseball at that level is very hard, and there is a fine line between success and failure. To brand him as stubborn makes me sick!
I don’t think I can be around such idiots!
The guy is breaking his ass out there and idiots who have never played above T-Ball question him.
I call BULLSHIT!
I second the motion Mark. Belli just might be the World Series MVP. Great analytical comments on the Draft. I just loved and instantly laughed at your title ” The Price is Wrong”. Super Blog you have here Mark. I can’t thank you enough for all the intelligent reading I get to do. I know your feeling when you post and few respond. I run a little golf pool and very few comment and I wonder why I do it, but i do it because I like doing it. A question on this Soto talk. Is there not a cost to the Cap in baseball that is trying to stop this – a few crazy good teams at any penalty cost. It does make for fun reading though.