Tonight’s game against the Giants could likely prove to be one of the most important… if not THE MOST IMPORTANT START of the season for a Dodger pitcher. Why? Simply because in his last start, Mitch White gave up ten Hits and six Earned Runs, raising his ERA from 3.38 to 4.20. Mitch has started twelve major league games in his short career, and eight of them have been this season. Mitch White is currently the Dodgers’ Number Five Starter, and for him to rebound and have a quality start would make it less likely that the Dodgers would need to make a move for a starter at the Trade Deadline.
Andrew Heaney will likely be back next week, so the Dodgers are not bereft of options, but the fact that Tony Gonsolin got lit up at the All-Star Game has to raise some eyebrows. Tony has pitched 236 innings in the major leagues, and 93.2 have been this season. He pitched 55 innings last year due to a sore shoulder, and the most innings he has ever pitched in college or in the minors was 128, back in 2018. I am not implying that he can’t do what Julio Urias did last season when Julio jumped from 55 innings in 2020 up to 185.2 innings in 2021, but it is a concern. I think at some point, Tony should have a 15-Day Stint on the IL for that nagging blister he might soon develop.
Let’s look at the Dodgers’ Starting Pitchers and see what we might expect from them.
Julio Urias – #1
To me, right here, right now, Julio Urias has earned the right to be the Dodgers’ Ace, but Clayton Kershaw will challenge him as to who would start a playoff series. Julio is 8-6 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He leads the Dodgers with 96.2 innings and has been bringing those numbers down all season. When the season is over, he will be one of the guys you want to take the mound in a pressure-packed game.
Clayton Kershaw – #2
Maybe we should call them “Co-Aces,” but Clayton is pitching very well, having had a shot at two no-hitters this season. He has logged 71.2 innings and is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He is showing no signs of letting up at age 34. Since he has had some back and joint arthritis, I would imagine that he is now on some anti-inflammatory like Meloxicam, which is a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medication. I started on it about a month ago and have osteoarthritis in every joint of my body. It has been a “wonder drug.” Maybe he is on something better… I would think that the Dodgers Medical Staff is “on it!”
Tony Gonsolin – #3
Tony is 11-0 with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. As I mentioned before, he has logged 93.2 innings, and this is unchartered territory for him. At the very least, when Andrew Heaney gets back, the Dodgers may skip a start for him, but he is also worthy of being called an “Ace.” It’s his title to lose… after all, he did make the All-Star Team.
Tyler Anderson – #4
I know some Dodger fans are worried about Tyler, who currently has a 10-1 record and a 2.96 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP, but I have seen nothing that leads me to believe this is “smoke and mirrors.” He leads the Dodgers in innings with 97.1, but in 2021 he pitched 167 innings, and in 2018, he pitched 176 innings. By helping Tyler with some of his pitches and sequencing, the Dodgers have helped him drop his ERA by 1bout a run and a half. I personally believe that is sustainable. He is a solid #4 starter.
Mitch White – #5
This brings us full circle to tonight’s starter. He has the stuff… now he has to have the attitude and desire to be “that guy.” His last start elevated his statistics in the ERA and WHIP departments. I’d like to see his ERA in the low 3.00s and his WHIP at 1.10 or below. That’s why tonight’s contest with the Giants is so critical. It should not be lost that he is going against Carlos Rodon whose All-Star Snub will likely drive him tonight!
Andrew Heaney – #6
Heaney could get activated as soon as tonight, or the Dodgers may elect to give him another start in the minors. Either way, it seems to me that they may want to limit his innings for a while (3 or 4) so that the inflammation in his shoulders does not re-cur. Tony Gonsolin experienced the same thing last year, and it took an off-season of intense shoulder exercises (which he continues to this day) to strengthen the shoulder.
Ryan Pepiot – #7
He has already shown that he can fill that last spot in the rotation.
Plan B – Bobby Miller & Gavin Stone
Both have the arm and stuff. Neither has the experience. That shouldn’t stop the Dodgers from trying one or both… if needed. There is no doubt in my mind that Miller and Stone would already be in the Show if they were on most other teams. The same is true with Miguel Vargas! Someone asked earlier in the week how Miguel Vargas compared to Yusniel Diaz, who was the centerpiece of the Manny Machado trade. Sometimes, you have your biggest learning moments when they “throw you to the wolves.” You may drown, or you may learn to swim.
Here’s one of my favorite sayings (make of it what you will):
I have had it happen… and I was taught how to fly – But that is a story for another day!
The Trade for Manny Machado
The Dodgers acquired Manny for Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, and Breyvic Valera. While I was never a great fan of Diaz (I saw him as a 4th or 5th outfielder), Baseball America gave him a 55 Overall Grade, while Vargas gets a 60 Overall Grade from BA. I feel that Vargas will hit for more power and has an overall higher baseball IQ than Diaz, as well as a higher “motor.” Diaz still has not seen the Show, while the other four players have … with varying degrees of success. I was not upset with that trade, but I would be upset if the Dodgers trade Vargas.
On Juan Soto
Dodgerpatch had the best idea… and one that I would endorse. He suggested Bobby Miller, Mike Busch, and a lower-tier prospect for Soto (I would do that deal) – I am not saying the Nats would, but if it was the best they could do). Then sign him to a 5-year/$225 Million Dollar Deal ($45 Million AAV). Imagine that lineup:
1. Betts RF
2. Soto LF
3. Turner SS
4. Freeman 1B
5. Smith C
6. Turner 3B
7. Muncy DH
8. Bellinger CF
9. Lux 2B
I do not blame Soto for not signing. Not the least of the reasons is that the Nats are for sale, and some clown may just want to milk the fans dry. Before I would sign with a team, I would like to know what that team and its ownership are about.
I still really like Pepiot. Even more than White. His change up like Gonsolin’s splitter is elite. I think with more consistent opportunity and confidence he could mirror Gonsolin’s success. And I think Gonsolin is battle tested enough to survive a bad inning in the all star game. He’ll be fine but you’re right about innings pitched.
I see Pepiot as similar to Gonsolin. An elite off-speed pitch and good fastball. Gonsolin had to improve his command. Pepiot has similar upside if he can master his.
I see White as topping out as a #3/#4 on a team other than the Dodgers.
I would really hate to lose Bobby Miller in a trade. I think he will be an ace for us if we hold onto him.
Substitute him in that Soto trade with Pepiot plus maybe Bruns or even Stone and I would do it.
he and Cartaya should be untouchables.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Of those four guys, I think I’m most comfortable letting Miller go. He’s regressed a little this year – or at least hasn’t set the minor leagues on fire. Great velo on his fastball that he holds deep into games. I didn’t notice much movement or late life on it when I watched him pitch against the Angels. Good slider.
Pepiot could be another Gonsolin
Bruns and Stone are too early in their development to let go. I think AF got burned by trading a really young Yordan Alvarez (and Oneil Cruz). You need to see what you have before you trade it away. Bruns has electric stuff. He’s control needs a lot of work. Stone’s stock is rising faster than 2020 TSLA.
I agree with Mark about Mitch White and this start being a very important start. Here is his slash line for the year .237/.311/.387/.698, His OPS is sitting near what I consider borderline above average/average, .700 being the exact cutoff number.
His career slash line is better .222/.293/.364/.656, what I consider borderline good/above average, .650 being the exact cutoff number.
His lower level minor league stats were excellent, but his upper level minor league stats were below average. Then last year with the Dodgers he ended up with a good slash line and as mentioned above this year he is sitting at border line above average/average.
I like Mitch White and I hope he does well.
The Dodgers don’t need to trade for a SP if all of those guys peak and are healthy when the playoffs start. That’s the trick. The front office will try to get creative with the IL to keep players fresh, and we’re starting to enter the dog days of summer, and with a comfortable lead against the Pods, the Dodgers don’t need to grind down the pitching staff to a nub.
Scherzer ran out of gas at the end (the whole team did) because they wore themselves out chasing the Giants the last 1.5 months.
Mark good post today. I like White. When asked in a interview after White last start Doc said they were looking at video to see if he was tipping his pitches. If that’s the case we need to write off the last start. I think he can be a solid #5 this year and in a couple years a #3.
As far as the Catman I’m hoping the All Star home runs will be a wake up call for him. He has a realistic chance to be a 20 winner this year.
I agree just let Bellie be Bellie.
He will get you 20 home runs. I heard it said your guys up the middle have to be defense first. Smith and TT sure make up for any offensive shortcoming from Cody.
Ugh I hate those 2 words(Defense first). Because sometimes it turns into defense only, like around 15-17 years ago I think I may be wrong, when Izturis was at SS, Cora at 2B, Roberts in CF. Add the pitcher and you had 4 almost automatic outs and absolutely no power.
A bad remembrance for me.
lol – Yep, plus Roberts couldn’t throw. It was fun watching Izturis and Cora up the middle though.
Soto was a eatable to staying with the Nats so long as he got a contract that was double digit in years and highest AAV. He wanted the negotiations to be between him and the club. Now that the Nats let the world know where things stood, Soto is less inclined to stay with the team. Potential new ownership and a minor league system devoid of potential stars doesn’t help either.
Back to work. I like White’s stuff. He does need to work on location a little more. When he misses his spot, they light him up. I just look for him to do what he has been doing. He can be effective and take a load off of the rest of the staff if he can pitch just a little deeper into the game. The Giants come in banged up. Jump on them while you can.
If there’s one team that plays the Dodgers hard it’s the Giants regardless of where they and us are in the standings. Thusly if we suffer any loss or losses in the next four games I’ll find it hard to place blame om any of the rotation unless it’s an obvious mess up. I’ll have to judge White on what he throws rather than what gets hit. I thought the Cards were hitting pitches they shouldn’t of even swung at.
MLBTR lists the Dodgers as one of the prime landing spots for Whit Merrifield. I am not sure I concur with that, but they did say they consider Alberto as a bust so far. Dodgers are missing Taylor and his versatility a lot.
Another impression from the All-Star game: the Dodgers simply don’t have the sort of lock-down reliever that some other teams have.
Treinen used to be that kind of guy, but he’s hurt (as is Hudson). Kimbrel is past his prime and makes me nervous. We’re still hoping that Graterol gets there.
Right now, it looks like Phillps and Almonte are the most reliable options. (Who am I forgetting?)
The trade market could help–but it might just add a serviceable RP.
This has me wondering whether the Dodgers, come September, should position Miller and Dustin May for relief roles. That was how Bob Welch and Dave Stewart made their first big impressions before both flourished as starters.
You’re right Phillips and Almonte are our 2 best relievers. I’m hoping that Treinen is himself when he gets back. Graterol and Vesia need to work on getting better against the opposite side of the plate. Ferguson has been average, career wise, but we’ll see. Hudson I think is out for the year. Kimbrel and Moronta have excellent career stats, but haven’t been good this year, but we’ll see. Bickford was good last year but has been below average this year, 2 years combined above average. Price is a bust. Gonzalez who might be back is like Graterol and Vesia he needs to work on getting better against the opposite side of the plate. Kahnle who might be back is only an above average reliever to me.
You’re right there’s room for improvement in the bullpen.
The trade value simulator which, while certainly not definitive nor infallible, is much more objective than ANYONE (myself proudly included) here.
Let’s take a quick look at this silly trade idea:
Juan Soto has an estimated value of 176.8
Bobby Miller has a value of 28.7
Busch has a value of 27.
But that is based upon what we see today. If Miller wins the Cy Young… the simulator is based upon present value but when you are trading for prospects it is future value you are interested in.
False. And you could easily have seen this by using the tool!
Simulator encompasses the following factors:
Primary and secondary position
Years of control
AFV: Adjusted field value (The player’s projected on-field contribution)
Salary: Amount of salary remaining on contract
Surplus value (difference between AFV and salary)
For more on the different methods for evaluating major leaguers vs. minor leaguers, again this info is readily available, here:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers/
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-minor-leaguers/
“When it comes to valuing prospects, we take into consideration the scouting done by such sites as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and MLB Pipeline. We are also indebted to the excellent research done by both Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards and the smart guys at the Point of Pittsburgh, whose findings generally align. Having said that, for our purposes, we needed to extend the findings of the latter two logically to include a wider gamut of prospects, consider a wider range of sources and scouting reports, and create a model that weighs all of those inputs proportionally. We then tested and refined those weightings against real-world market results to ensure they were consistent.”
So, for the “trade value” to be roughly equal, the Dodgers would give up Cartaya, Miller, Vargas, Bush, Pepiot and Stone – the 6 most valuable prospects in the Dodgers farm system … all for two years of Soto – two years …dos, deux, dva. When you cite that 176 figure, are talking about surplus value OVER THE COURSE OF HIS CAREER? … or for the two years the Dodgers will have him under contract? Do you think there is a single GM in baseball who would ever make that trade? You know the answer. That tells you all you need to know.
Here’s an interesting little historical tidbit. Ptolemy was an ancient mathematician and cartographer who devised the geocentric theory of the universe – that is, that the Earth was the center of the universe. It was not just a hypothesis or theory. His math demonstrating this actually worked. It was incredibly complex and near opaque, but it worked.
mathematical modeling can predictably spit out conclusions, but if it’s based on faulty assumptions, then it doesn’t tell us much. Garbage in- garbage out. What is the accuracy of ZIPS? … for current players with a track record? How accurate are scouting grades in even predicting whether a player makes it to the major leagues, let alone the exact dollar amount in value they are expected to generate over the course of their careers?
I’m not a Luddite when it comes to sabremetrics or data. They can provide insight beyond the subjective, but sometimes it crosses over into the realm of self-gratification for basement dwelling geeks with way too much time on their hands. Besides, and I could be wrong, but I’m not sure you’re using the calculator correctly if that 176 number is surplus value over his career. The Dodgers aren’t trading for his career. They’re trading for his two years.
I graduated college with pretty high grades.But a lot of you,my fellow Dodger brothers can make me seem and feel like a pretty simple man and I am.You guys are really intelligent .
Someone with more objectivity than me who can tell me how crazy or possibly real this trade proposal could be:
3 team trade
NYY gets Soto
LAD gets Stanton
WAS gets prospects from both teams
Yankees are going to lose Judge, at least they would have his replacement
Dodgers would have the right-handed outfielder and power hitter they have been looking for so much, so they forget to deflate the farm and then pay too much money for Soto, that money that is better used to sign Turner
Yankess would have to give Volpe to begin with, but for that Amaya could be sent as one of the players from LA to NY.
Also, Dodgers will have to remove someone from the 40 roster when some players start to come back, they could send McKinstry to have a little more chance to play, I think he deserves it, with Dodgers and Roberts that will never happen.
Of course Stanton would have to waive his no trade clause, which can only be traded to one team, and you already know which one it is: EXACTLY!
RF-Betts
SS – Trea T
1B-Freeman
L.F.-Stanton
3B-Muncy
C. Smith
CF-Bellinger
DH – Justin T
2B – Lux
Bench:
Taylor, Barnes, Thompson, Lamb, Alberto
I know, that will never happen, why the hell would NY want to get rid of Stanton? To get Soto
dreaming costs nothing
Stanton might play every other or every third season? He is injured more than any player.
Friedman would be immediately arrested if he did that trade!
Byron Buxton is challenging Stanton for most injured.
Humor me:
So, if the Nats had traded the 2022 Juan Soto for the 2016 Yordan Alvarez the Simulator would have said that the Nats got screwed.
I understand that top prospects carry a disproportionate trade value, but it is somewhat arbitrary.
If Bobby Miller reaches his potential next year and wins 20 games, his value would likely be higher than Luis Castillo. The simulator may be fun, but I don’t see any reality to it. It all depends upon how each party values the players. The simulator is not data like WHIP or WAR – it’s more like WHIM and CAPRICE
P.S. I do agree that it might be more accurate than anyone here!
Exactly. The simulator only makes sense between established major league players.
Prospects are a lease and bet on the future.
otherweise the Dodgers for example never would have gotten TT and Scherzer last year for Ruiz and Gray.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mark,
Time machines have not been invented yet. You trade for possible future value, not guaranteed future value.
It is, as you summarize, a value for us fans because it’s more informed than we are.
Do any ‘real’ GMs use it? Of course not, they have their own proprietary value algorithms. Since we don’t and can’t, we can use this one
So MLB.com suggests that the Nationals would want the Dodgers to pick up Patrick Corbin’s contract in a Soto deal. Just educated speculation, of course, but AF did agree to cover the price on Price to get the Betts deal done.
The chatter has me thinking the Dodgers should wait for Ohtani.
Within a year–perhaps much sooner–Arte Moreno will decide he can’t afford two mega-salaries on a team that can’t make the playoffs. And if Arte does decide on a drastic course, he might want to unload Rendon’s contract in the deal.
Ohtani + Rendon will represent about $70 million in salary per year. The price would be very high because Ohtani has value beyond the playing field, as the LAT reports:
“There has been heavy speculation about a possible trade of Ohtani, the two-way star and reigning AL most valuable player who will become a free agent after the 2023 season.
“But a transaction complicated by the challenge of attaching a value on a player with such an unprecedented skillset would probably best be made during the offseason, without the pressure of a deadline.
“The Angels, according to a person familiar with their finances, also generate roughly $10 million a year in Ohtani-related stadium advertising and marketing agreements and don’t relish the idea of losing that revenue. And owner Arte Moreno is loath to part with such a superstar and marquee gate attraction.”
Of course Arte is. But I don’t buy the idea that the deal is best made during the offseason. If the Angels move now, the buyer would effectively have Ohtani for two championship runs, not just one. The Dodgers gave up a top prospect for a half-season of Scherzer.
After their epic collapse, the Angels have to be mulling this over…
10:09 PM ET
Giants (48-43)
Dodgers (60-30)
SP Mitch White R
1-2 4.20 ERA 45IP 42K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
DH J. Turner R
2B H. Alberto R
3B Max Muncy L
LF T. Thompson R
CF C. Bellinger L
Clear-day
0% Rain
76° Wind 6 mph Out
2022 Undrafted Dodger Free Agent Signings
Connor Godwin, RHP, Central Florida JC
Carter Lohman, LHP, Louisville
Livan Reinoso, INF, Tennessee Wesleyan
Giants signed veteran reliever Trevor Rosenthal to a major league contract.
Bluto, can you find out what the trade simulator added up to in the Mookie deal?
I can’t, but I’m sure that info is out there.
This took me thirty seconds to Google.
So much power at our fingertips! Use it.
Here’s our scorecard since August 2019:
Number of real-life trades: 345
Number of those trades accepted by our model: 327
Acceptance rate: 94.8%
Average margin of error: 1.7
And here are the records of a few recent trades that our model got right:
Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers
Matt Olson to the Braves
Mitch Garver to the Rangers
Max Scherzer, Trea Turner to the Dodgers
Kris Bryant to the Giants
Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy to the Phillies
Javier Baez to the Mets
Francisco Lindor to the Mets
Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals
This is what I found….
Betts (50.7) + Price (-55.3) + cash (48) = 43.4
Verdugo (47.7) + Downs (21.7) + Wong (4.3) = 73.7
Awesome!
Wait. Not awesome.
The trade was:
Dodgers get: Betts, Price, cash (all from Red Sox) and Brusdar Graterol, outfielder Luke Raley, 2020 Competitive Round B draft pick, (from Twins)
Red Sox get: Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, Connor Wong (from Dodgers)
Twins get:Kenta Maeda, catcher Jair Camargo, cash (from Dodgers)
That pick landed us Clayton Beeter.
I agree that the Trade Simulator may be fun, but I already have too much fun.
Thanks for that 5th run, Joc!
B&P, did Joc cheat in your fantasy football league too? Why the animosity? And test passed by Mitch!
Joc should have just said “NO” to those last 4,000 cheeseburgers. If he wasn’t so fat, he would have cut that ball off, but I say “Thank you, Pillsbury!”
The Drive-Thru-Panda
LOL
No animosity. I liked Joc when he was here, but now he’s a Giant. I don’t want him back, I see him for what he is and I hate platoons and slow outfielders.
They used to clock Joc with a stopwatch – now it’s with a sundial.
So we are having great Mitch White tonight!
Mitch thoroughly acquitted himself tonight!
Insofar as trades go, let me ask one question:
With the team playing like they are, and with the starters pitching like they are, and with Heaney, May, Graterol, Buehler, Gonzalez, Treinen, Duffy, and other pitchers due back, and with Miller, Stone, Vargas, and Pepiot waiting in the minors, “WHY are we even talking about trades?”
Sounds like a dope-fiend move!
One reason is that trade speculation is fun.
And WHY NOT trade some of that depth for a superstar? Why not take advantage of teams that need to rebuild?
All considered, I think AF has a better track record in trades than in signing free agents….
Bickford needs to change his sequence!
Oh, I thought you said address.
Ouch Bickford gives up a home run to a RHB. The better side of the plate for him in his career.
I saw that coming. Vesia’s weakness is against RHB’s.
Excellent against LHB’s.
You can’t mess around with that stuff during the three batter minimum rule era
It’s just one game and we are ahead of the Padres by a lot so no big deal. But what happens in the playoffs. By the way nobody is infallible including Phillips. It’s just a blip. He has been excellent this year. And he has improved his stats consistently over the last few years
Well the offense is gonna bail out the bullpen. Good.
Bickford has to be send down for good.
Unreal grand slam
Raise your hand thee ones who want to trade Mookie Betts!
Psychologically a very good win. The reverse would have been true with a defeat.
Think we need some reinforcements in the Pen ASAP. Might have seen the last of Bickford.
Props to Doc for sticking with Trayce.
Trayce really delivered. And so did Lux with the inside-out swing taking advantage of the shift.
And Mookie was being Mookie. Again. Is he starting another tear?
It was such an exciting game that commentators seemed to forget than White took a no-hitter into the 6th. And it’s sure nice to have Caleb Ferguson throwing well again. (I think I heard a commentator meeting that Ferguson was a 30th round draft pick. That’s got to be encouraging for all those late picks and free-agent signings in recent days.)