Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER)

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1. That looks like a pitching stat. And while pitching is of course a large part of the defense, I prefer OAA. The Dodgers don’t fare as well on that list.

   1. If they don’t fare as well, then maybe it’s not such a great stat – I mean a .714 Winning Percenatage is outstanding any way you slice it!

      1. You’re the one who brought up defense. And simply put, outside of pitching, we are not that great a defensive club. Good thing we don’t need to be. Yet.

         1. I think that’s essentially true–it’s more about the pitching than the gloves.
            But that said, Mookie, Freddie and Belli are top shelf. Each could win GG…. And I think the tandem of Smith and Barnes is very good….
            Thinking of defense, I remember that great quote from a struggling Pedro Guerrero when he was asked what he was thinking about while playing to third. Something like…
            “Don’t hit it to me…. And don’t hit it to Sax!”
            My guess is that Rios would be OK at 3rd. Pairing him with JT a bit might help. Could be a rotation of Rios, Muncy, JT through 3B and DH.
            It’s fun to follow the Dodgers SPs who have reached the majors yet. Pepiot has now left that club, but there’s still a potential rotation from Miller, Bruns, Knack, Beeter, Nastrini, Grove, Huebeck (sp?), Stone… and I’m forgetting some.
            And the Halos keep rolling….

   2. That’s weird. It doesn’t look like a pitching stat to me at all. It removes Walks, HBP, K’s and HR’s (everything that a pitcher controls) from the equation and bases it on hits and errors as a ratio against plate appearances minus all the things that a pitcher controls. The problem with it is the same as FIP. It assumes that all hits are a function of defense and not a liner given up by the pitcher.

2. I like this stat–
   LA 20-8

3. Mark –
   I agree that it is time to get Rios in the lineup on a regular basis….is he capable of playing in the outfield?

   1. Yes, but I would put him at 3B or DH.

4. It may be time for Max to be “hurt”

   1. Nah… he needs to play through it. Just like JT!

5. DODGERS SELECT RYAN PEPIOT

   LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers selected the contract of right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot and designated left-handed pitcher Robbie Erlin for assignment.

   Pepiot, 24, will make his Major League debut this afternoon after going 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA (6 ER/26.1 IP) and 36 strikeouts in six starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City. The Indiana native has spent parts of three seasons in the minor leagues with the Dodgers, going 7-9 with a 3.75 ERA (63 ER/151.0 IP) and 194 strikeouts in 45 games (38 starts). Last week, he was named the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Month as he went 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in five starts, allowing 14 hits and striking out 29 over 21.2 innings in the month of April for the OKC Dodgers. He was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the third round (102nd overall) of the 2019 First Year Player Draft out of Butler.

   Erlin, 31, made two appearances for the Dodgers, allowing two runs in 2.0 innings with one strikeout. In his Major League career, he is a combined 13-20 with a 4.87 ERA (185 ER/341.2 IP) and 275 strikeouts in 117 games (43 starts). He was signed by the Dodgers as a minor league free agent on February 14, 2022 and made one Spring Training appearance (3.0 IP/0 ER).

6. What a great game yesterday. Sadly, I missed it. We had family in town, visiting from Michigan. “In town” was actually in Ventura, so I got to drive my my wife to work in Long Beach, come back home, then back to Long Beach to pick her up. Then off to Ventura for a 4PM party time.

   It was a lot of driving, but well worth it to visit family I haven’t seen for quite some time. All in all, I spent about 7.5 hours in the car for a 3.5 hour visit. It took about 2.45 hours to get to Ventura from Long Beach with a stop at In and Out on the way, but just 1.5 hours to get home. Traffic sucks!

   I followed along with the game on gamecast and was pleasantly surprised with the offensive output after taking the night off the day before. Finally, JT came alive and Rios is just a monster right now. It’s about time to find him an outfielder’s glove and let CT3 and others a little time off. Maybe they can put him in Left Field with a ground ball pitcher on the bump and play him at 3B with Muncy at 2B with a fly ball pitcher. He was originally a SS and can’t be as bad as Kevin Mitchell right?

   Tony “Too Many Pitches” Gonsolin is quite the enigma. The poster boy for “Effectively Wild”. I had the same pitching philosophy when I played. Never let anyone hit the ball! Never give in! I’m so dirty the umpire can’t even tell what strike is.

   It’s now Pepiot time! I wonder if he’ll be up for the task. He the kid that famously worked with a Sports Psychologist in the offseason and it looks like it paid dividends. He’s kinda like Tony “Too Many”. He throws a lot of pitches, lots of walks and tons of K’s. He’ll get a soft landing against the Pirates and hopefully the Dodgers won’t over manage by using an opener and put in a reliever not used to starting and a starter not used to reliever in order to take pressure off this young starting pitcher. **Eye Roll** I’ve never understood how that makes any sense at all.

   I agree with Mark’s assessment of the defense. The Dodgers don’t commit a lot of errors, and they also make a lot of good to great plays. I think as watchers of the game, people are pretty subjective when it comes to defense. I think if we watched all games by every team our outlook on our own defense would be much better.

   1. With gas in California now about $6.50/gallon, I wonder how much yesterday cost you. It’s something I have to think about now. It must suck to be an Uber driver, who started Ubering to try to make ends meet. They probably can’t afford to work.

      I’m not sure how long Gonso can keep up his high wire act, but it’s working so far, so I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.

      1. About $80-85

7. Dodgers (20-8)
   Pirates (12-17)

   SP Ryan Pepiot R
   0-0 .00 ERA

   Confirmed Lineup
   SS Trea Turner R
   1B F. Freeman L
   C Will Smith R
   2B Max Muncy L
   3B J. Turner R
   CF C. Bellinger L
   RF Chris Taylor R
   DH Edwin Rios L
   LF Gavin Lux L

   Clear-day
   0% Rain
   70° Wind 5 mph L-R

8. How about those KINGS ! Nice overtime victory. Exceptional game.

9. That’s what I’m telling you, your criticism of Gavin Lux seems a bit hollow: Chill – all is good!

10. Elfin DFA’d? No surprises there. The surprise was that they brought that turkey up and sent Bruihl down. Nice game to watch. So do it all over again. No drama. Score six for the kid in the first!

11. I like this very much about Gonsolin,
    career stats: 169.1 IP/115 H
    2022: 27 IP/16H
    As we can see he is a difficult pitcher to hit, I know he throws too much and that takes him to 5 IP per game but with this bullpen there is no problem, in addition the Dodgers have almost twenty relievers who will be turning throughout the year which will allow Those arms arrive fresh in October.
    5 IP with two runs scored or less in October from Gonsolin and then come that tremendous bullpen that’s a good formula to win a game

12. Gonsolin would be a number 1 or 2 on many clubs and considering he is our #5 we should consider this an enviable place to be. If he just keeps doing what he is doing the bullpen can finish up. Rios is forcing his way into a starting job. Have a little patience with Pepiot. His change up will have hitters swinging out of their cleats. Can he command the fast ball to make him unhitable. We shall see.

    1. In 4 years he’s gone at least 6 only four times. I would think a 1 or 2 would have to do better than that. Maybe not these days.

       1. In 4 years, he has started 33 games.

          If they leave him in the rotation, he will get there.

          1. I hope you’re right.

13. Pepiot throwing nice and easy
    Good movement on the mid 90 fastball
    Change is awesome
    But he has to cut down on the BBs
    Go Dodgers!

14. Pepiot working in and Out of Trouble.
    Stuff is excellent but he needs experience

    Go Dodgers!

    1. His change up may be a good one but at this level he needs to get it closer to the strike zone. Guys are already laying off it because it’s seldom a strike.

       1. Good Point.
          Command is a Huge issue too

          Go Dodgers!

15. 3 scoreless innings
    That is the good news
    Stuff is there But Controll a Huge issue, way too Many pitches
    Kid needs some more seasoning

    Go Dodgers!

16. Pepiot with a very bright future but needs more time. When will CT3 start hitting; inquiring minds want to know?

17. Pitching is an integral part of defense. If I were pitching, defenders would be nervous. I doubt they would see any slow rollers.

    Pepiot had a successful but short day.

18. Kahnle throwing BP Out there
    5 pitches 3 Runs

    Go Dodgers!

19. Of course, in baseball history, no rookie pitcher has ever been nervous and threw too many pitches and walked too many batters. If he ever did, he should immediately be sent down. Pepiot should be judged by how many he walked in his initial appearance.

    Ummm, No! I think he deserves another shot, although he could get sent back if they don’t need him.

    1. No need to be sarcastic, Marc
       Kid did okay but he showed same flaws as in the minors
       Too many BBs and lack of control
       Probably not the nerves but his usual problems
       I too think he earned another start and future looks bright with his pure stuff

       Muncy is in a colossal funk
       Stood there like a house by the side of the road with bases loaded

       Go Dodgers!

       1. He may go back down if he is not needed in 5 days.

          Personally, I like him in relief.

       2. Max hunting walks. A cookie on a full count and he just stares at it. Looks like he doesn’t trust himself.

          Bullpen don’t look so hot.

          I’d sure like to see more 7 inning starters in this rotation. Different era, that’s for sure.

20. These guys played like they had a plane to catch.

    1. Pretty much. Especially the relief core seemed to phone it in.

21. Out of the Dodger’s 9 losses, they have lost 2 out 3 to Colorado, 2 out of 3 to Arizona, and 2 out of 3 to Pittsburg all on the road. These are NOT top 10 MLB teams talentwise and should not be match for us.

    1. Could be a sign of a team that plays down to its competition…

22. Busch hit his 10th homerun in 28 games thus far and Outman his 7th in Tulsa’s 7 to 2 win today.
    Muncy needs a trip to the IL. Something’s not right. He’s a rally killer.

    1. Free Busch!

       Leave it alone…..

23. I won’t write about the Pepiot command because even Ray Charles can see that and it is very likely that this is the worst version of the Pepiot command, so we will surely see something better later.
    I will write about three things that I saw from Pepiot at ST 2022 and that I saw again today:
    1 His fastball has very good movement and is difficult to square.
    2 His slider is a tik below average and on his best day he’s average, but he’s getting better.
    3 His 80-degree off-speed pitch doesn’t fool major league hitters, major league hitters don’t chase that pitch from Pepiot, today I only saw the first hitter who chased that pitch and struck out, everyone else didn’t swing and there were some pitches that were close to being strikes.

    1. He’s walked them in the minors too. Career 4.29 BB/9. And you know those hitters chase more than ML do. He just needs to aim that change center cut lower thigh high and trust it.

24. It was Pepiot time …. and he wasn’t ready. Yeah, he didn’t give up any runs, but he couldn’t find the strike zone.

    “But it was his first major league start. He was nervous. Of course he walked some people.”

    Sure, ok, but that has been the knock on him in all the scouting reports. He has great potential. I’d like to see him up at the MLB level again this year, but let’s not delude ourselves into thinking he doesn’t have some work to do to master control and command.

    I’ll say the same thing about Gonsolin. He, he’s avoided giving up runs, and his ERA is impressive, but he’s putting runners on base. Sooner or later this is going to catch up to him.

    Defensive Efficiency Ratio. I mean, all of these stats are interesting, and can provide insight, but in an of themselves they don’t reflect reality. They are constructed.

    I’m not sure what ROE is in that equation, but I think B&P is right that’s basically an inversion of FIP. You’re assessing defense by removing all the events that are outside the defense’s control and under the pitcher’s control. Just like FIP’s fundamental flaw is that it doesn’t account for hard hit %, or line drive % vs. a slow dribbler, which are things a pitcher most definitely has control over and directly influence the likelihood of scoring. this stat doesn’t factor how much that soft contact has contributed to overall run prevention. The low run total of the Dodgers is therefore being attributed to the defense, when, in actuality, the pitching still has a lot to do with it in spite of the omission of home runs and walks, etc.

    Besides, this stat doesn’t correlate at all with UZR or DEF. You would think all metrices that measure the overall defense would, more or less, show similar results.

    The Dodgers are suffering a little bit of the syndrome that was hurting them last year about this time. They’d score 10 runs one game, and nothing the next. So Bellinger goes, so too the Dodgers offense. This oversimplifies, but the streakiness of the Dodger players reflects in the streakiness of the team as a whole.

    Muncy is doing the same thing he was this time last year. He’s not confident in his ability to hit and drive the ball, so he’s reverting to looking for walks. He was leading the league for a while last year, but he also wasn’t hitting for average or power, either. He became better when he became more aggressive and his walk rate actually went down. He won’t be aggressive until he gains some confidence. He won’t gain confidence until he starts to hit. It can become a cycle.

    I’m just glad they signed Freeman. Without him the team would be in trouble.

    1. “I’m not sure what ROE is in that equation,”

       ?

       Put Max in the 9 hole and tell him to hunt the strikes he will get there. Forget launch for the next several at bats. Seek line drives.

       1. “The formula for Defensive Efficiency Ratio is: 1 – ((H + ROE – HR) / (PA – BB – SO – HBP – HR)).”

          I don’t know what ROE is an abbreviation for in this equation.

          1. I didn’t either. Reached On Error

             I thought we were maybe about to wade accidentally into a political discussion. My bad. Sure don’t want that.

             1. That’s Roe.

             2. Different sintax?

                So it didn’t reach here on an error. Since I didn’t know what ROE, was… never mind. There’s no humor to be found here.

             3. It’s “syntax.”

                Pretending that ROE means Reached On Error is just your way to get political talk past the censors. Forbidden talk is hidden in the equations. Very sneaky.

             4. Gee. Nothing gets by you. Except of course an obvious attempt at humor.

25. It seems we now have the Oakland A’s era Max Muncy on our hands. What to do, what to do?

    1. Don’t worry, be happy norcaldodgerfan.

26. Pepiot starting career like Koufax. Miller as well.

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