Call to the Pen

This article has 64 Comments

1. Mark –
   I agree on a couple of your Dodger Player Notes: (1) Muncy needs to sit out the Phillies series to clear his head and Rios is the right guy to move into his spot. (2) Playing down to the competition is a dangerous tendency the Dodgers developed after the 2020 championship year. I think the Manager needs to shake things up; Lasorda and would Alston would have….

   1. Hav been to 11 Dodger games this season (some home some road) watched the rest on MLB. I’m convinced that many players have “entitlement” issues. A series of lineup changes are in order and some position players need to be called up. Doc has to stop coddling guys like Muncy and Belli.

2. When Kevin Pillar has twice as many homers as anyone on the big club, you know something is wrong with the baseballs. How about MLB fixing this ASAP? Both the Dodgers and the Padres are among the bottom feeders in HR’s this year. They both play in damp, cool ballparks. Maybe the humidor is unnecessary in these parks?

   It was fun watching Pepiot yesterday. But, he is wild as that cat living under the front porch. I’m not sure if he needs to be converted into a reliever right now, maybe he just needs more games in the minors to sharpen his craft. That changeup is as advertised. Cole Hamels did more with less.

   Rios needs to be in that lineup on a regular basis. What’s this guy got to do to get a steady job?

   There’s been a lot of ink spilled on Cody Bellinger. He’s definitely better than last year’s version and his glove is elite in CF, but he’s still struggling a bit at the plate. He swings through too many strikes and chases often. Like Mark’s analysis of Pepiot, he needs to take a couple MHP off that swing.

   The Pirates are a better team than they have been in recent years, a lot like the D-Backs. I’m not saying they’re on the rise to be a competitor for a postseason run, but they aren’t the pushover they’ve been in recent years.

   No rest for the weary as the Dodgers will be home tonight after travelling cross country to take on the Phillies, who had a short trip travelling from Seattle.

   1. Hey B&P I wanted to comment on your posting the last few weeks. I’m finding them very informative and enjoyable to read. With the elimination of the political talk and you not being so condescending to others has really made a difference in your content. I just wanted to let you know that someone has noticed the improvement. Not that it makes any difference what I think. Just sayin’.
      Carry on.

      1. Thanks Ted! I’m not making a conscious effort, maybe I’m just finally getting wiser as I age.

         1. Since you seem to have appreciated Ted’s comment with regard to your recent posts, I’d like to second that. Always enjoy your takes on baseball, even if I don’t agree with all of them.
            This site is always better with the absence of political comment.

            1. The best way to keep me, or anyone else from being political, is to not post something political in the first place. If you look back, I rarely make a political post. But, I will reply to one.

            2. And I’ve learned not to joke about something that could possibly be looked at as political slant by the more thin skinned people here. My bad. I should have known better.

            3. ‘And I’ve learned not to joke about something that could possibly be looked at as political slant by the more thin skinned people here. My bad. I should have known better.”

               Wut?

               Is this about your post yesterday? LOL. I honestly didn’t make the connection between ROE in a baseball sabremetric equation and a highly controversial SCOTUS decision from 50 years ago. I’m a little slow on the uptake. My bad!!

               And no, I didn’t think you were covertly embedding coded political messages in said sabremetric equations to foil the ever watchful eyes here at LADT. I was being facetious.

               Ooh! SINtax. Like it’s a sin. Ok, I get it now. Har har.

               Like I said … slow on the uptake.

            4. You’re forgiven.

            5. “You’re forgiven.”

               You’re not.

               All potential life is sacred. Joking about such things makes some among us irate.

               https://youtu.be/g8fheDIG_RA

            6. Now that is clearly a political post and an antagonistic one at that.

               I’ll answer this way – a woman’s choice is none of my business and it’s none of yours either.

            7. “Now that is clearly a political post and an antagonistic one at that.

               I’ll answer this way – a woman’s choice is none of my business and it’s none of yours either.”

               *sigh*

               You didn’t click the link, did you?

            8. Of course I did. It was silly.

               I still forgive you.

            9. It was more than silly. It was ….disinformation. This Monty Python person sounds subversive.

   2. The 2021 Dodgers and 2022 Dodgers are not dramatically different. I think the 2022 Dodgers should be better largely because Freddie/Trea is an upgrade over Max/Seager. (And we still have Max. He’s struggling now, but the guy has hit 35 HRs in 3 seasons…. Maybe some rest is all he needs. But yes: More Rios, please. )
      As for splaying down to the competition (um…thanks), one question now is whether these 2022 Dodgers also will similarly ABSOLUTELY SUCK in one-run and overtime games.
      Couldn’t find the final season stats easily, but here’s a reminder from an LAT article last Aug. 12:
      “The Dodgers’ struggles in extra innings — they are 1-12 in overtime this season — have been well-chronicled, but they have quietly gone 13-21 in one-run games, another surprising statistic for a team with the second-best record in the National League. Only the Marlins and Diamondbacks have lost more one-run games.”
      Those absurd numbers were often explained away as just a statistical fluke. But maybe it’s more about overconfidence, or a lack of competitive hunger, for maybe Roberts’ strategic failings.
      Or whatever. Beats me.
      Right now, the Dodgers have both the lowest ERA by nearly a half-run per game and highest total run differential at +80, ahead of the Yanks at +50 and the Angels (!) at +47.
      So far, the Dodgers have only had two one-run games–and lost both. Now, I expect the 2022 Dodgers will be better at one-run and OT games, because how can they not be? Still I think it bears watching.
      Last year we saw the problems of playing down the competition and thus not clinching early last season.
      If they’d won 110 games, the pitchers get more rest. Maybe Max and JT don’t get hurt because guys from OKC are fulfilling a lifetime dream.

      =

3. Go Dodgers. 8 games at home, 4 with the Phils and 4 with the D-Backs. Should be interesting.

4. I was not impressed with Ryan Pepiot’s first start. How can this guy be the Dodgers #1, major league ready, pitching prospect? His FB has good movement, but controlling it is and has been an issue for Pepiot. The slider has minimal movement and needs a lot of improvement. And, as mentioned in yesterday’s comments, his changeup will be ignored by major league hitters until he improves his control of the FB. As far as a potential BP piece I don’t think that will work unless he can improve his control. So, if he improves his control then why not keep him as a starter. In today’s game a starter only has to go 4-5 innings to be useful to a team.

   When Muncy watched that third strike changeup right down the middle with the bases loaded that tells me he has next to no confidence in hitting a baseball right now. Max needs to be benched for a few games. With Rios on fire it might be the perfect time for that to happen. The Dodgers can’t afford to have a middle of the lineup hitter looking to walk, especially with runners on base. Like I mentioned several weeks ago he started out last season doing the same thing. Granted he ended up having a productive season, but how many early season games did he cost us by not being aggressive at the plate. Apparently, he learned nothing form his 2021 early season approach. Let’s see what Rios can do with some everyday playing time. He would, also, make a perfect platoon partner with JT.

   This pattern of the Dodgers scoring all or most of their runs in one inning can make watching the games boring. I find myself watching something else and use my phone or tablet to let me know when there is some actual offensive action happening. Between the dozens pitches Pepiot was throwing and the Dodger offensive being stymied by the Pirates “opener” for four plus innings the game was almost unwatchable. But, I continued to watch to see if Pepiot could get his control together. He did not. I did check in just in time to see Kahnle implode. Man, that happened fast. One of those days for Kahnle. I’m sure as the season moves along he will get dialed in and be an important part of the BP.

   I’m continuing to be impressed with Gavin Lux’s season. Nothing spectacular, but just doing his job both offensively and in the field. He is really starting to look like a major league OF. He can cover a lot of ground out there. He is a nice 9th place hitter with his contact rate and excellent speed on the bases. Lux might never be a All Star, but I think he’ll be a solid, long time Dodger.

   It’s good to see JT and Mookie starting to come alive offensively. With the Dodger lineup they don’t have to be super stars , but more consistent. What’s going on with Chris Taylor? I thought last year’s K rate of 33% was an aberration and in 2022 he might be able to cut down on his K’s. Well, he’s at a 45% K rate so far this season. He can’t hit a baseball right now. He’s another candidate for a visit to the pine. Between he and Muncy they are killing the team offensively. They have Lux for Taylor’s OF games and Alberto for Muncy’s or Taylor’s IF duties. So, solid replacements are available. Let’s use them.

   And yet with a few offensive issues the team is 20-9. It, again, underlines the importance of pitching in being successful in a long season. The starting pitching has been very good with a few hiccups along the way. But, the BP has been outstanding (except yesterday) so far. The depth is the key and that should even improve as the season moves forward and injured players become available.

   Oh yeah, Freddie Freeman is awesome!!
   Carry on.

   1. I agree a lot with what you said about Muncy and the middle of the order. If Belli was hitting, he would be a good guy for that spot, but with his K rate, they have little choice except for Rios who I’ve been pumping up for a very long time now.

      I’m not a huge fan of Muncy so I’ll just leave my obligatory comment about three true outcome type players right here. I don’t like guys that walk, K and HR only. I want guys that can collect hits and put the bat on the ball. I miss that kind of play. No one scores from second base on a walk. All too often it turns into a double play.

      Treinen and V-Gone to the IL really hurts the pen overall. It’s a long season, so we just need to keep plugging away and hope our very best are ready for the post-season. Keep up that home field advantage, so we just need to keep doing what we’re doing.

      I do think the bats will eventually wake up in a big way and I think that Belli and Muncy will improve over the course of a long season. Belli, Muncy and JT are a big part of why the offense is underachieving and it’s still one of the best in the league.

      1. So, Belli’s new bat is not helping too much.

         Let’s talk Soto. Apparently hs is available.

         1. Is he available? I don’t see too many superstars traded with 2.5 years of team control remaining. Maybe this offseason, or next trade deadline. More likely the following offseason (1 full year of Arb) or most likely the following trade deadline or not at all. I still happen to think a deep postseason run is more valuable than even the best prospect packages. Just to eyeball it a little bit…

            Ave post-season ticket at $250 per ticket = 40K stadium capacity x$250 = $10M per game. Add in parking, concessions and everything else and it’s probably closer to $15M per game. If you play in 10 post season games, that’s a $75M split between two teams. I think I’m being conservative here.

      2. We’ve talked about Muncy’s splits before here. He’s a summer hitter. Of course, all his numbers were before restricted flight balls and his injury, both of which have contributed to his lack of production. But, weird thing is, he’s put up .6 WAR and that pace would give him over 3 WAR for the year. I would put him lower in the order, and 9th is a good spot as pitchers won’t want to pitch around him to get to the top of the order. As I’ve said before, he needs to relax hunt strikes and barrel line drives. Pillar is there for injury emergencies. Nobody’s hurt. Right? Now, if Max should go on the IL, that would change things.

         Bellinger for Soto? It would take more.

         1. Both Belli and Soto are earning about 17 mil this year.
            Soto has an extra year of control.
            Yes, it would take more…………………….a whole bunch more, and I don’t think the Nats would even accept Belli as part of the deal.

            1. I think they might, though I doubt it.

               Some of these young guys peak really early. Bellinger may never see 8 WAR again, Soto may never see 7 WAR again. Who’s most likely going to have a better career. No way of knowing really. It looks like Soto now, but that could change. I just don’t think either team would do it unless they were overwhelmed. Bellinger plus…. a good pitching prospect? Soto straight up? Both teams would want at least 7 WAR per year potential out of the trade to do it, that’s why I don’t see it

            2. Washington needs to do something to avoid being a .500 team for the next decade. Soto gives them the asset to fill multiple holes.

            3. That’s true. We could give them what they need to do that. Vargas, Pepiot and Turner.

               But we ain’t giving him $500 million. Washington can save $200 million by taking Turner back. That’s 8 WAR for them starting next year. Or offer them Bellinger and an arm. But again….$500 millions not happening here. Or anywhere I hope.

5. We just had a 4-2 road trip. Lets pump the brakes with all the doom and gloom.

   Win the day today.

   Was at the last 2 games. Good seeing the boys in Blue!

6. Can someone remind me, cause I don’t recall. Did Roberts ever sit Bellinger for more than a game late last year when he was really really really scraping?

   1. He sat against lefties quite a bit last year.

      1. Yes! Basically a platoon, thanks.

         1. Ironically, although a very small sample size of slightly over 100 at bats, Cody has reverse splits this year. He’s hitting .250 against lefties and .183 against righties.

            1. He misses the up and in fastball from a right hander more than he misses the slider down and away from the lefty. The down and away pitch is a chase. The up and in fastball is often a strike. He used to punish mistakes. Same with Muncy. Not yet for either of them. Not consistently anyway.

      2. Perhaps, it’s better to anticipate Roberts moving Muncy to more of a platoon then?

         I just feel it’s silly to think the team will sit him for an entire series espy in light for Roberts’ track record.

         1. Doc is not going to sit him the whole series… especially not tonight on Max Muncy Bobble Head Night!

            1. Perfect. He’s been hitting the ball like a bobble head, so he can just lean on the railing and nod his head all night.

7. The Dodgers are toast. Robinson Cano to the Padres. Print the tickets.

   1. They would be better off with Justin Upton.

   2. Cano just had a 4 hit game. July 14, 2019. Maybe he can recapture that magic.

      1. Another bad guy with baggage in a locker room with other bad guys , Tatis and Machado.

         1. Perfect fit.

            1. I wish them well. A deep one.

               That’s a joke. I don’t really want them to fall into a well. Not both of them anyway. That would be mean.

         2. Bauer to S.D. then.

            1. At the right price, I bet Preller would jump at that.
               He’d be fun to watch in Vegas.

8. The 2021 Dodgers and 2022 Dodgers are not dramatically different. I think the 2022 Dodgers should be better largely because Freddie/Trea is an upgrade over Max/Seager. (And we still have Max. He’s struggling now, but the guy has hit 35 HRs in 3 seasons…. Maybe some rest is all he needs. But yes: More Rios, please. )
   As for playing down to the competition (um…thanks), one question now is whether these 2022 Dodgers also will similarly ABSOLUTELY SUCK in one-run and overtime games.
   Couldn’t find the final season stats easily, but here’s a reminder from a LAT article last Aug. 12:
   “The Dodgers’ struggles in extra innings — they are 1-12 in overtime this season — have been well-chronicled, but they have quietly gone 13-21 in one-run games, another surprising statistic for a team with the second-best record in the National League. Only the Marlins and Diamondbacks have lost more one-run games.”
   Those absurd numbers were often explained away as just a statistical fluke. But maybe it’s more about overconfidence, or a lack of competitive hunger, for maybe Roberts’ strategic failings.
   Or whatever. Beats me.
   Right now, the Dodgers have both the lowest ERA by nearly a half-run per game and highest total run differential at +80, ahead of the Yanks at +50 and the Angels (!) at +47.
   So far, the Dodgers have only had two one-run games–and lost both. Now, I expect the 2022 Dodgers will be better at one-run and OT games, because how can they not be? Still I think it bears watching.
   Last year we saw the problems of playing down the competition and thus not clinching early last season.
   If they’d won 110 games, the pitchers get more rest. Maybe Max and JT don’t get hurt because guys from OKC are fulfilling a lifetime dream.
   Oh, as for Pepiot to the pen…. well, I would hope he improves his control.
   RPs who walk batters belong on other teams. Looks like Caleb Ferguson is about ready to return.

   1. You hit on something that has bothered me for years. This goes back to discussions and debates back in the MoneyBall days. That book is one of the few examples of an in-depth view of how analytics were employed to build a team from a $ per win perspective. It also exposed that a strategy that works over 162 games may not work in a 5 game series. And the book is going on 20 years old. The dynamics of both analytics and roster management have changed dramatically in that time. Teams have every incentive to keep their methods and models a close guarded secret. I wish I had a window into the mind of AF as I’m certain he and the entire analytics team are fully aware of the dynamic between the laws of averages and the need to alter strategy within a game. I just don’t understand what that dynamic is. And the lack of success in one run and extra inning games tends to indicate that whatever the Dodgers are doing within that dynamic hasn’t worked very well. To me those games are an indication of success in the playoffs. And that becomes even more critical in a world where there are 3 game playoff series’.

      I’ve often compared the dynamic to poker. An effective poker strategy on a regular table game (where time isn’t a major issues) is very different from an effective strategy when playing in a structured poker tournament. The law of averages work for one but not the other. If you play a typical table game strategy in a poker tournament your odds of success will be very low. And vise versa if you utilize a tournament strategy in a regular table game.

      So, are the Dodgers really missing this? I know the sample size is low, even if we look at 1 run and extra inning games over 2021 and 2022. But the Dodger’s record is so bad it gives me cause for concern. I can’t believe that AF and Roberts are just ignoring the issue. But why have the results been so bad? I can’t say I remember all the decisions made in all those games. I probably watched many of them but I certainly don’t remember all the details. Are they adequately modifying their strategy in close games? I’m curious what everybody’s thoughts are on this. I wish all the GMs and managers were an open book on the subject. But they will never tip their strategy for the sake of my peace of mind.

      1. I have no clue about poker strategies as my experience, very limited, is luck of the draw. Luck can’t hurt in a short series, that’s for sure. But we’ve all heard growing up luck is residue of preparation.

         I too want to hear what others have to say about this as the Dodgers appear to be built to win the 162 game schedule, then hope like hell that they better 6 month team is ready to win 3 straight series against the better playoff teams.

         Kershaw’s failures, Roberts wtf decisions, cheating Astros, and Sherzer dead arm just seem maybe like outliers to me. You get to the playoffs you better be lucky AND good.

      2. How exactly are playoff games more like extra inning regular season games than they are like every OTHER type of regular season games?

         1. Not sure why that is difficult to understand. Late innings, one run game. Doesn’t take much to take the win. You do things to get that 1 or 2 runs across. Things you wouldn’t do if you were up by 5 or down by 5. Get the win.

            If you can’t adjust and make an extra effort to manufacture that run or two when it matters, what’s the point?

            Nobody gives a shit about how many games you won if you lose the last game of the season. That attitude, and strategy, shouldn’t start in October.

9. Found myself wondering whether the humidors, on balance, are helping the Dodgers.
   Even though the Dodgers lead the majors in run differential and runs-per-game, don’t most of us think the pitchers are outperforming the hitters?
   Anyway, stumbled on this early-season MLB stat for runs-per-game:
   No. 1–Dodgers at 5.21. (Slightly better than the 5.05 average in 2022.
   No. 2–Angels (!) at 5.06, which is a big increase from their 4.46 in 2021.
   And this got me wondering about ERA stats….
   No.1 –Dodgers at 2.25, a big improvement from the majors-leading 3.02 last season.
   No. 2–Yanks at 2.60, a bigger improvement from last year’s 3.78.
   As for the Angels, Detmers’ no-hitter has moved their ERA to 3,37, for 7th in the majors. That’s s a stupendous improvement from 4.69 in 2021.
   It’s still early, of course… but not super early. This is just a snapshot, but I wonder how much the odds for a Dodgers-Angels World Series have improved.

10. Phillies (14-17)
    Dodgers (20-9)

    SPTyler Anderson L
    3-0 2.78 ERA 22K
    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    SS Trea Turner R
    3B Max Muncy L
    C Will Smith R
    DH Edwin Rios L
    CF C. Bellinger L
    LF Chris Taylor R
    2B Gavin Lux L

    Clear-day
    0% Rain
    76° Wind 8 mph L-R

11. In other baseball news, cool story in NYT a few days back about Tom House, so-so pitcher who became a legendary pitching coach. Seems he and Nolan Ryan went out of their way to help Randy Johnson harness all that talent. Hoping his pitching app can make my 12-year-old, a crafty southpaw, even craftier.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/09/sports/baseball/tom-house-mustard.html

12. Pepiot optioned.
    Yency Almonte to take his place. He’s been used out of the bullpen at OKC.

    So, for those of you who were looking forward to Pepiot’s next start, your wait may be longer than anticipated.

    Almonte’s numbers at OKC have been pretty spectacular, both k’s/9 and k’s/bb. Also his WHIP has been very good.
    But of course those numbers are at AAA so we’ll see how they translate.

    1. Pepiot’s start was basically nothing more than a bullpen game. Now, in mid May, we are shuffling the deck with more bullpen games on the horizon.

       Where are our 105 pitch 7 inning starters? 105 doesn’t sound like that much to me. At least 4 of our 5 starters should be able to give us that. Nope. Problem is, even they throw 105, they probably won’t finish 7.

13. Bryce Harper will not be throwing for at least 4 weeks. He has a torn UCL. He will be limited to DH duties. Also he is scheduled to have a platelet rich injection on Sunday that will keep him out of the lineup for probably a few days.

    1. I just researched success rates of prp on Major League Baseball players and results are all over the map. A lot depends on the degree of the tear. But, no matter what, he will likely be out a while. Philly has other issues. Add this to the list

14. Indeed it seem like a call to the pen. Anderson is not fooling anyone.

15. Some of Roberts’ decisions are truly mind-boggling.

16. If Roberts had run Barnes for JT when he was at 2B, he most likely would have scored on Taylor’s hit and the Dodgers would have entered the ninth with the score in favor 8-7, he didn’t, he waited until Turner was in 3B to make the change.

17. Charlie Steiner continues to amuse.
    After Barnes came in to pinch run for Justin Turner, Steiner repeatedly said that “Smith” failed to get a good secondary lead on Alberto’s bunt. I’ve never hear Rick Monday correct him on the air, and he didn’t tonight either. Eventually Steiner got around to saying it was Barnes who was the pinch-runner–but never acknowledged his own blunder. (If he did this routinely he’d be doing it in just about every game.)
    I really didn’t like Roberts’ strategy on that bunt.
    I actually like Steiner. He captures the emotion of the moment well and often provides good info. But he really has troubles with following who does what sometimes.
    Listening to the 9th inning now and hoping this won’t be another 1-run loss….
    Would a 2-run loss be worse?
    And now it’s up to Chris Taylor….
    Ugh.
    (And Steiner confused Herrera and Cabrera on the catch–but quickly corrected this one.)

    1. Don’t mean to be rude but who cares about Steiner. This game was most likely lost by Roberts. Definitely a couple of questionable decisions. Seems to me the players stepped up only to be undermined.
       Just say and let’s talk about what matters

18. Can’t see Dodgers being better w/o Jansen.

19. When Roberts had Alberto bunting with two runners on and nobody out, I started screaming at the TV screen. Why did he have a hitter who makes consistent contact bunting in that situation? Was he worried that Alberto would hit into a double play? As far as I was concerned that cost the Dodgers the game. And of course, being unable to score with the bases loaded in the 9th didn’t help. But that was just poor execution.

    1. I didn’t understand the bunt either. Odds are Alberto will put the ball in play. He could probably show bunt and then swing away.
       I couldn’t see the play on the radio–and it wasn’t in the highlights online– but apparently Barnes got a terrible jump. Obviously JT can’t really run right now, but I also wonder why Barnes was used as the pinch runner. Perhaps he’s the best choice, but I wonder if a pitcher might have been better. (If the Dodgers want to keep all those pitchers, somebody should be able to run. I think Stripling used to pinch-run a bit–and perhaps Julio could pinch-hit a bit. ) I wonder if games like this will have the brain trust rethinking whether they should carry one less pitcher and bring back McKinstry or somebody else.
       On the plus side, the offense did mount a comeback–and Almonte looked good.
       But am I wrong to hope that Hudson starts complaining of a sore shoulder?

20. I think it’s time to realize Hudson is not the “high leverage” 8th or 9th inning hold pitcher that Doc thinks he is. Bases loaded 9th inning and score zero is pathetic.

    The SNLA broadcast showed a graphic last night where 5 or 6 Dodgers are hitting well below their career OPS for the year. Is it time to think of another voice in the hitting room? Trea Turner, Mookie, Max, Smith, JT etc. have regressed significantly to this point.

Comments are closed.