Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore.
I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built on SLG, pitching, and defense. That is how they got to and won the last two WS. But, as the players age, bat speed will slow down. When bat speed slows, SLG starts to regress as well. Teoscar’s bat is noticeably slower.
Teo’s bat speed has gone from 71 (2023) to 73.2 (2024) to 72.9 (2025) to 71.8 (2026). That does not sound like a prescription for an upcoming change in his power numbers. His SLG for the last 3 years – .501, .454, .365. It is entirely possible that his adrenaline kicks in for the playoffs and the bat speed picks up.
After the first 14 games the Dodgers were 11-3. They are 13-13 since. They are 7-8 in their last 15 games.
Over the last 15 games, the team batting:
- BA – .241 (13th)
- OBP – .325 (9th)
- SLG – .367 (22nd)
- OPS – .693 (18th)
- Runs – 66 (19th)
- wRC+ – 98 (16th)
- HR – 11 (28th)
- Hits – 120 (20th)
That is a second level offense. If it were not for the pitching and defense, this team would not even be playing .500.
Want a larger sample size? Let’s look at the last 26 games since their 11-3 start.
- BA – .248 (13th)
- OBP – .329 (8th)
- SLG – .394 (18th)
- OPS – .723 (12th)
- Runs – 114 (16th)
- wRC+ – 105 (10th)
- HR – 26 (20th)
- Hits – 215 (14th)
Better , but not a top shelf offense, and it shows the trend is regressing.
Over the last 15 games, the team pitching:
- Team ERA – 3.27 (6th)
- SP ERA – 4.00 (14th)
- RP ERA – 2.12 (3rd)
That starting pitching ERA ballooned the last 2 games. It went from 2.76 to 4.00 . Surprise, because the SP was not good, the team lost both games by identical scores of 7-2. And all LAD runs were generated from 2-run HRs late, once the games had been decided.
Fangraphs does not allow for custom dates for fielding. Therefore, for the season, the defensive metrics are:
- DRS – 24 (2nd)
- OAA – 14 (3rd)
This is a good defensive team. Cubs and Boston are arguably better, but not by much.
Dodgers do not hit HR, they are a .500 team with pitching and defense.
NOTE – THIS WAS PREPARED BEFORE I LEARNED THE DODGERS CHOSE KIM OVER FREELAND
What is going on with individual players over the last 15 games:
- Andy Pages – .328/.355/.603/.958
- Kyle Tucker – .255/.371/.431/.802
- Max Muncy – .233/.353/.442/.795
- Shohei Ohtani – .234/.390/.362/.752
- Freddie Freeman – .220/.281/.322/.603
- Teoscar Hernández – .227/.358/.227/.586
- Will Smith – .250/.308/.389/.697
- Alex Freeland – .270/.357/.405/.763
- Hyeseong Kim – .262/.295/.333/.629
- Dalton Rushing – .188/.257/.188/.445
Pages has been fairly consistent throughout the season. He had a slump (as do all players), but he has seemingly broken out of that. For how long?
After a very slow start, Freeland has the #4 OPS over the last 15 games, and the #4 SLG. Will it continue? I do not believe so, but that is because I do expect the others to improve…Ohtani, Freddie, Smith, Mookie. I am not convinced he will precipitously drop, while I am sure others believe he will.
Teoscar is not hitting, but his OBP is up because he has the 3rd most BB on the team the last 15 games. Doesn’t help to drive in runs. Should Alex Call get more AB over Teo?
Since Rushing’s phenomenal start, he has been the worst hitter on the team the last 15 games. Over those 15 games, Smith has 39 PA and Rushing has 35. Maybe Smith should be playing more???
Two of the top 3 BA over the last 15 games are Freeland and Kim.
Mark is correct. This is a marathon and not a sprint. And the Dodgers seemingly know how to navigate a 162 game season, and then the be ready for the playoffs. At least for 3 of the last 6 years.
And dodgerrick is right that the games in March – May count the same as do games in August – September. The lineup is getting older. And with Mookie coming back, and Freeland or Kim going to the bench, it will be getting older.
Will dog days of summer impact the “older” Dodgers who are scuffling now? How will that impact the bat speeds. Only Shohei and Pages haves a bat speed above the 50th percentile. That is partially offset with 7 of 10 primary position players with barrel % rates greater than 50th percentile. Only Pages (45%), Tucker (39%) and Kim (23%) are less than 50.
There are a lot of questions, and nobody has the answers. Just guesses. I will continue to monitor trends, and hopefully they will begin to trend up rather than to continue to show regression.
Some will say that it has to get better, while others look at trends and age, and conclude it will not.
Thanks Jeff, you are a breath of fresh air to the site with your common sense and insight.
Yes we are getting older and slower but there isn’t much we e can do about it for now.. Freddie is holding his own, Teo is being average but both should be gone in a year. Mookie ain’t going anywhere for five years because he not tradable. Max is signed for two more years and is having the best year of his career, so no problem there. Sadly, Kershaw retiring may have taken the Dodgers spirit with him. It seems that way to me.
All I’m saying is that there isn’t much AF or Doc can do this year and we may not have enough to finish off that third WS win but we will be competitive and entertaining. Enjoy it and watch the rebuild next to year with all the farm talent available to promote offense or purchase some young pitching talent.
Max is signed for one year. 28 is a team option for 10 mil with a 3-mil buyout. Freddie wants to play until he is 40. I think AF might give him that 2-year extension. Teo could be traded before next year.
Thanks Jeff for some interesting insights.
I was completely onboard with the slow playing of the past couple of seasons, the Top Brass having learned from previous failures that it’s not how you start, but how you finish that matters, and giving players the chance to hit October in good health and form.
However as we can all see, our offensive woes are becoming too frequent and we were very lucky to beat the Blue Jays and that has perhaps masked a greater problem.
In 24 our offense was sparked in the second half by the Ohtani running game. He decided he wanted to break the 50/50 record, and it gave us a whole new dimension. It ended when he dislocated his shoulder, and his running wasn’t a factor in 25.
Last season he blasted 50 HRs again, and we just about cobbled together enough offense to get over the line, somehow.
AF did his best to make a difference by adding Tucker, but the same problems persist. If you rely of the Slug it’s often feast or famine.
Doc has tried shuffling the pack but now it’s time do what some here have been championing for some time, something that Michael has been saying from day one of the Ohtani era, move him from Lead Off.
It sets totally the wrong precedent by having your Lead Off guy making no attempt to get on base. The tone that is being set is the wrong one. He is an easy out. He has made his intentions clear. He wants to win a Cy Young. Good for him but it doesn’t help the Dodger’s offense when he clearly doesn’t have the same mentality that he had when he was just Batting.
We look soft I don’t think it’s helped Tucker batting behind him either. It’s time to make our lineup harder to pitch through.
Mookie must bat first. Then Freddie. They had great success in tandem in the past.Then our best RBI man, Andy Pages.
Max 4th because he can get on base, followed by Shohei, Will, Tucker, Teo and Kim.
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Muncy
Ohtani
Smith
Tucker
Hernandez
Kim
Time to shake things up.
OK Scott. It’s time to fire a shot across the bow. Quarter of the way thru and this team is stuck in yuk! And you should ask AF if it’s possible to sign a player who isn’t either hurt or stinks in his first year with the club. If Roberts can’t light a fire under threse guys then it’s up to you. And can I be the first this year to call for Doc to be fired.
My work is done!
Well that was embarrassing.
I would be fine with a lineup change. Will Roberts do it? I doubt it. This is a veteran team being paid ludicrous wages to win in October. Yeah sure, all games count, but this team is wired for October. All we can do as fans is wait patiently. We don’t have to watch the schneids, and I didn’t last night, we can just read about them, for what feels like weeks at a time. But obviously we have to live through them. They seem to do this every year.
We discuss lineup changes. You want Betts leading off? He’s hitting .182. Ohtani is hitting .148 in his last 7 games. That can’t last. Or can it? Tucker, Hernandez, Kim, Kiké, Edman…. Wyatt Mills?
Nobody in the West is playing over .500 ball in their last 10. It’s May. Happy Mother’s Day. Memorial Day still a couple weeks out. High school graduations. Spring football, flowers are blooming, the Lakers get blowed out, the Rams are early favorites, Kings, Ducks who cares, UCLA baseball ranked #1, transfer portal news, why does Matt Leinart have a say in unretiring his #11?, Hawaii beats UC Irvine for volleyball championship…… and Ohtani 0 for 5.
So….. we wait.
Jeff,brilliant assessment of what’s wrong with the Dodgers and what the trends are telling us and where they may be heading. As I’ve stated age has finally caught up with us along with the last two years of grueling championship runs.. There is Nothing that AF can do with the present roster,because of the contracts he has to live with. We may stumble into the playoffs this year offensively,but one thing we could still have is a strong well rested healthy starting pitching staff with Yamamota,Ohtani,Glasnow and Snell with a strong bullpen with the additions of a healthy Diaz and Philips. Both of those factors may determine how far we advance in the October tournament. Pitching is still the key to winning championships.
Robert’s bullheadedness in keeping Ohtani in the leadoff spot is maddening. The guy isn’t hitting period. BA .236, another ofer last night. No homers since April against the Cubs. OPS is below .800. He is rolling over and hitting way too many ground balls. LA needs a spark, and he is not providing it at the top of the order. The team concept doesn’t seem to be working here either. 2-10 with RISP? 10 hits and just 3 runs? Right now, I would be batting Muncy and Pages 3-4 because they have been the best and most consistent hitters. LA now in second place, one half game back of the Padres.
Can’t remember the last time all nine starters had at least one hit in a game! If Freddie hits, Andy doesn’t. If Teo hits ,, Will doesn’t. If Andy hits, nobody else in the lineup does! Frustrating? Beyond belief. I know, they will hit when it matters. I know, Doc will flip the switch. I know, they’re programmed for October. I know I don’t buy the “ look old” theory. 40 some games into the season and they are already tired? Hell they aren’t hitting so they ain’t running the bases that much so how can they be tired? They don’t steal bases so they ain’t running there either. Not watching is not an option for me. Now I did turn it off in the eighth inning last night. I usually watch the whole game no matter what. But except for Trienan (hopefully he can sustain his good season so far) , the bullpen took a dump! The Giants are not good! Lowest run production in baseball.. I think one team is worse. But 9 runs for that team? 3 runs against a minor league pitcher? They probably break out for 10-12 runs in one of these 3 remaining games and then back to 2-3 runs again. If the starting pitching can stay healthy they should be able to survive this awful offensive drought. But my lord it’s absolutely torture watching Sasaki pitch! He’s got all the talent in the world. He does not have all the confidence in the world! Why not piggyback him and Emmit when Glasnow comes back. 4 innings is about the maximum they can count on both of them. And maybe Ohtani should use a 2×6 at the plate! That bat ain’t long enough or wide enough to hit what he’s swinging at!!
I still do not trust Sasaki as a starter. Too much traffic. He made way too many pitches early. I would have pulled him after 5 innings. Up until then, he was at least in line for a win. He did get out of a couple of jams. Shut down innings for the pen have become a problem, so is hanging pitches in the middle of the plate. Like putting the ball on a tee for these guys. Klein did it with 2 strikes and it cost a couple of runs. Mills doesn’t even belong here.
I totally forgot about the Mill’s meltdown.
Watched that unfold on my drive to work this morning. I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen such a bad inning pitched. Ever.
Who recommended him to be promoted??
Mills was called up because he was pitching well at AAA. His 3.26 ERA was one of the lowest on the team. His WHIP down there is below 1. Who recommended him, I have no clue. So far, the best ERA down there belongs to Garrett McDaniels, 2.30. Mills also had some MLB experience, but his MLB career ERA is 6.65.
Its May, relax…
This could be the best thing to happen to this team….they know the final goal and it aint going pedal to the medal for 162, been there done that and didnt work out….
A voice of sanity.
We’re a voice of reality.
Dodgers get Alek Thomas from Arizona for minor leaguer Jose Requena. Michael Siani designated for assignment
Alek Thomas:
Current Roster StatusMinor League Options Left: 0 (Exhausted)Current Team: Los Angeles DodgersRole: Left-handed bench outfielder and defensive specialistBecause he is out of options, the Dodgers cannot send him down to the minor leagues (Triple-A) without first placing him on waivers, where any other MLB team could claim him.
Thomas still has a minor league option remaining, so he’ll begin his time in the L.A. organization in Triple-A.