Just three short years ago, Diego Cartaya was the top prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers and had a bright future as a Catcher. I did an interview with Cartaya, and he seemed like a great guy (I can’t find the video right now). Here was Baseball America’s Scouting Report on him:
"A large, physical masher at 6-foot-3, 219 pounds, Cartaya has grown into plus-plus power and has become one baseball's most promising young power hitters. He demolishes baseballs from left-center to right-center field with a fast, powerful swing and drives balls over the wall even when he mishits them. He crushes both high-end velocity and good breaking stuff and has a knack for playing up to his competition, including when he homered off Padres lefthander Blake Snell during a rehab start last May. Cartaya's swing gets a tad long at times, leading to bouts of strikeouts, but he has the instincts and awareness to self-correct and make adjustments. Cartaya recognizes pitches, stays in the strike zone and draws plenty of walks to post high on-base percentages on top of his power. He projects to be an average hitter with plus-plus power and still has room to improve as he becomes more consistent with his swing mechanics. Cartaya's defense has further to go. Once considered a potential plus defender, he has gotten tighter in his hips and upper body and he's gotten bigger and lost quickness and mobility. He has yet to find an optimal setup with his new physique and receives pitches too deeply, resulting in drops and framing issues at the top of the zone. He is frequently late on blocks and allowed 93 wild pitches and 11 passed balls in just 64 games in 2022. The Dodgers ascribe Cartaya's struggles to rust at the beginning of the year and fatigue at the end of it, but his setup, receiving technique and blocking all need significant improvement for him to be an average defender. Cartaya does have the intangible components for catching. He is an advanced game-caller who communicates well with his pitchers and is bilingual. He has above-average arm strength that plays up with a quick release.
The Future: With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers' catcher, Cartaya has time to improve his defense without being rushed. He projects to be a middle-of-the-order force in the Dodgers' lineup no matter his ultimate position.
Scouting Grades: Hitting: 50. Power: 70. Speed: 30. Fielding: 45. Arm: 60"
Now, he is out of baseball, allegedly being released by the San Francisco Giants’ High-A affiliate, the Eugene Emeralds. In 2024, he hit .221 in the minors, following that with .107 in 2025. At the time he was released, he was hitting just .107! Diego Cartaya’s story is one of those “future stars, where did he go?” Not a scandal, not a clubhouse revolt… more like a slow fade where the tools never quite cashed the checks the hype wrote.
Reports say he “plateaued or regressed in basically every facet” of his game, both hitting (swing-and-miss) and defense (receiving, consistency) became concerns. Then, in early 2025, the Dodgers cut bait by trading him to the Twins for RHP Jose Vasquez. Think of Cartaya like a high-performance engine that never got tuned for highway speeds. His main issues were:
- Swing-and-miss exploded as pitching got better
- Defense didn’t progress enough for a catcher
- Development plateaued right when it needed to accelerate
- Confidence spiraled once results tanked
In short, he mashed A-ball… then upper minors exposed everything! He was well-liked by teammates and coaches alike and got more chances than he deserved because of his makeup. He got chances because people still believed in him…. until they didn’t. Diego Cartaya was a player with all the tools, but for some reason, he could not put them all together.
Back on November 1, 2023, I published this:
“A few years ago, a player was called up by the Dodgers, and in his first call-up, he hit .143 with a .250 OB%. It was just eight plate appearances, so there was not much to go on. In his second season, he had 239 plate appearances and hit .215 with a .272 OB%. Well, like many of you would be quick to do, the Dodgers traded him, and that player, Paul Konerko, went on to hit 439 Career Home Runs with a .279 BA and a .841 OPS. Whoops! Even though they got Jeff Shaw back, I am sure the Dodgers would take a Mulligan on that one.
OK, I am just going to put this out there, and please do not take this the wrong way, but I have to say this:
I appreciate all of your takes, opinions, and prospects… but mostly when it is based upon study, research, and especially watching games in the minor leagues. To me, your opinions about prospects mean less than nothing if you are just looking at stats. No, let me rephrase that: “It is really silly to just look at stats!” There, I said it!
If you want to be an expert at evaluating minor league prospects, you have to hang around with scouts and scout types. You have to watch, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. You have to see these players in person. You have to watch them on MiLB TV. You have to read other’s scouting reports and reconcile that with what you see. Then maybe, just maybe… you will be qualified to make judgments about minor league players, and maybe you might be right half the time! HALF! The leading GMs and scouts and baseball insiders get it right, maybe slightly more than half the time. I heard one executive say that if you get player development right 54% of the time, you are a genius.
So, when I read comments that the Dodgers should trade Miguel Vargas, Diego Cartaya, or Michael Busch, it just makes me think someone who says that is dumb enough to do self-brain surgery. Progress is not linear – sometimes, you have to let it play out. Now, that does not mean that I would not trade Cartaya, Vargas, or Busch – I would do it in a heartbeat if it made the team better. “But I think Vargas is not going to be that good.” Fine, that’s your opinion, but if you are just looking at stats and a few YouTube videos, you are a moron! It takes a whole lot more than that to evaluate prospect talent, and you are still going to be wrong a lot more than half the time… if you are really, really good at it!
Many of the scout types are older. Do you know why that is? It often takes time to develop an “eye” for talent over the years. If I have to describe how that happens, you are not capable of understanding it! However, talent evaluation is not an easy or simple thing. Stats are just a tiny part of it, so in the future, make sure your opinions are informed ones. It’s OK to say, “Well, I saw him yada, yada, yada,” and that is fine, but you have to understand that it was ONE TIME!
I am not trying to stifle opinions, but I and many others I know spend a lot of time watching and discussing prospects. I subscribe to Baseball America and have every Prospect Handbook ever published. I read (and value) Keith Law, Jim Calais, and several others at Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Still, there is a lot more to know. I will continue to make predictions, and when someone less educated on minor league prospects occasionally make one or two predictions and then make fun of ones where I was wrong, I just consider the source.
Nobody gets it right, much more than 50%. One outta two ain’t bad! Maybe if you are a .300 hitter in talent evaluation, you are good. I am releasing my 2024 Top 30 Dodger Prospects. Here they are – If Miguel Vargas were a rookie, I would rank him #1, but he’s not!
- Michael Busch – 2024 – He needs a runway and a chance. I am not afraid of him in LF, 3B or 2B, but he will need some reps in any place.
- Emmet Sheehan – 2024 – He is on a fast track to becoming an elite pitcher. I did not expect to see him this soon, so he is a quick study.
- Diego Cartaya -2025 – I look at last season as an anomaly. Stuff happens… usually mental or personal stuff. If it continues, then I start to worry. His skills are off the chart. I hear from some that his swing is too long, and I don’t even know what that means! They are just words.
- Dalton Rushing – 2025 – He is a stone-cold hitter who may or may not change positions. Last season was challenging for him. Let’s see how he rebounds.
- Kyle Hurt – 2024 – He just needs to go to the bullpen, where he will be a multi-inning lockdown reliever.
- Landon Knack – 2024 – He is ready for the show, both physically and mentally. He has changed his work ethic, diet, and training. He’s a #3 or #4 in waiting.
- Gavin Stone – 2024 – He still needs to add another pitch, but control is the key. He finally started putting it together late last season.
- Andy Pages – 2024 – Last year was lost to injury. He had lost weight and was thinner and seemed poised to be a big-time outfield prospect. Can he take up where he left off? We shall see…. He does have “Light Tower Power!”
- Nick Frasso – 2024 – Filthy, nasty stuff. Control is getting better. He had a “Not Tommy John Surgery,” and the question is whether his arm holds up as a starter. He generally is not allowed to pitch more than 3 or 4 innings. That will likely change this year.
- Yenier Fernandez – 2024 – He has a unique skill set in that he can catch, and play 2B and SS. This is a guy who could be a nice utility man or more.
- Jonny DeLuca – 2024 – We saw him last year. He’s solid in the outfield and is a lefty killer. Works best in a platoon.
- Ronan Kopp – 2024 – If he harnesses his control, Kopp and Hurt will form a deadly multi-inning L-R duo unseen for a long time.
- Hunter Feduccia -2024 – I think he’s ready to be a backup and the fact that he hits LH is a plus. He is not the equal of Barnes behind the plate and how his bat plays is the question.
- Justin Wrobleski – 2025 – One of the few LH Starting pitchers in the Dodgers system. He had TJ a couple of years back and flashes a 95 MPH Fastball and a very good curve. One more pitch (probably his slider), and he will be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. He is also in the process of mastering the cutter. I am high on him.
- River Ryan – 2025 – River is a great athlete who played SS and 2B as well as was a reliever in college. He is new to starting, but his fastball touches 99, and his slider hits 91, while his changeup and curve are improving. He really needs a full season at AAA, but he is another middle-of-the-rotation guy who has some really nasty stuff.
- Austin Gauthier – 2025 – This is a guy who likes to hit the ball hard and touch at least 1B. He is aggressive and physical. He can play DSS in a pinch, but 2B is his best spot. At worst, he is a utility man, and at best, he could be an occasional All-Star at 2B.
- Jorbit Vivas – 2025 – Somewhat a LH version of Gauthier, Vivas has the ability to use the entire field. He is a below-average runner, has below-average power, and is somewhat limited defensively. I do not see many players as trade bait, but he is one.
- Jake Pilarski – 2025 – I had him in the 20s until the AFL, where he is showing out as a closer. In 13 IP, he has a 0.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and averages 14.2 SO/9. He does walk 4 per 9, so he has to get better there. He has all that closer stuff!
- Jake Gelof -2026 – This is a guy who maybe should be in the Top 10 or 5, but I have not seen him enough to put him there. What I have seen reminds me of Austin Riley.
- Thayron Liranzo – 2026 – A switch-hitting catcher from the DR, he is still only 20 years old. He has plus, plus power but also has plenty of swing-and-miss. He’s very raw and has a very high offensive ceiling. His catching is slightly advanced but he has similar skills to Diego Cartaya.
- Josue De Paula – 2026 – Still a teenager, Jo is 6′ 3″ LH hitter with a sweet swing. He is skinny and will become much stronger as he matures. His ceiling is that of a Superstar, but he is horrid defensively. DH is his best position. I have only seen him on video, so there is a lot to learn.
- Kendall George – 2026 – George is very different from any Dodgers player in the fact that his speed is his biggest asset, and his speed will kill anyone. I am looking forward to seeing him in person, but he could be an asset in CF by 2026.
- Joendry Vargas – 2026 – Vargas is a RH 6′ 4″ SS, and we all know that shortstops that tall can’t succeed… right? He has a shot at being a high-average hitter with 25 HR power.
- Maddux Bruns – 2026 – Just 21, Maddux (named for Greg), has a high 90s fastball, a hammer curve, a high-quality slider, and a change-up. IF (BIG IF) he can harness his control, he could be a solid #2 lefty. If he can’t, he might not make it. It’s Boom or Bust!
- Damon Keith – 2026 – Damon has great power, strikes out a lot, and is a solid outfielder at each position. He is athletic and strikes out a lot. 2024 is an important year.
- Jose Ramos – 2026 – A very athletic outfielder, Ramos has PLUS raw power and poor plate discipline. He gives away too many at-bats. He’s dead red on fastballs but can’t hit breaking balls. He also has a cannon for an arm. You have to be patient with this guy.
- Jarod Karros – 2027 – At 6′ 7″ his fastball is barely over 90 MPH and he has some nice secondary pitches. Control will dictate how he does.
- Peyton Martin – 2027 – Martin is a nice RHP with a 98+ MPH fastball and an 82 MPH Change. His curveball is improving by the minute. He maintains his cool on the mound with a “presence” that is rarely seen. He is a guy to watch.
- Rayne Doncon – 2027 – Currently playing SS and 2B, Rayne has great bat speed and has a knack for barrelling up pitches. He could play 2B or 3B… most likely. He just turned 21 so he has a ways to go.
- Chris Newell – 2027 – A 22-year-old LH hitter, Newell has a lot of raw power and had a strong arm before his TJ surgery a couple of years ago. It is looking stronger, and he has above-average speed. He plays all three OF spots, but the corners are where he will likely end up. He could be a very solid hitter if he keeps this up.
Feel free to disagree. I will add some commentary in the next few weeks on the ones I did not cover. If there is a player you would like to know more about, just let me know. I don’t know it all, but I do get a lot of prospects right. When Andrew Toles was in Rancho Cucamonga, I predicted he would be in the Majors that same season. It happened… but of course, I loved Andy LaRoche, so there is that!”
While watching Quick Pitch this morning reviewing the Dodger game I noticed on 2 of the highlights they played the radio feed and I heard Charlie Steiner on the call. Awhile back Mark posted that he was having some health issues. Good for him to be back on air calling games.
Cubs lost to Padres in a back and forth game 9-7. Mason Miller finally looked human and gave up a few runs in the 9th but they pulled it out. Cubs struggling on the west coast road trip after winning 10 in a row.
Steiner is not back. That was not him on the radio side. That was Tim Neverett. Steiner is still battling cancer. It is in remission, but he is not healthy enough to be back at work. Dodgers would have made some sort of announcement if he was back.
Bummer I swear that was him but couldn’t find anything online that he was on the call so it must not have been. Sorry for the misinformation.
I’m not sure about last night but on the last home stand Steiner did a couple of innings. I heard him while I was driving home. I haven’t listened to a game on the radio since then. But he did do a couple of innings
You would think the Dodgers would announce his return, which they have not. Surely the guys on the TV side would say something. Nelson was in the booth last night with Mendoza, who I simply cannot stand. Davis had the night off. I heard Monday when I watched the replay on MLB.TV, but not Charlie.
https://www.truebluela.com/los-angeles-dodgers-news-notes/112197/charley-steiner-shohei-ohtani-andy-pages
Here’s a link to true bluela that has info on Steiner being back on a limited basis.
Nice to know. He really looks different though after his battle with cancer.
Miller and the Pads got screwed by the ump who called a bunt that rolled foul a fair ball. Replays showed it was clearly the wrong call–but apparently the rules don’t allow a challenge.
Pads should have challenged.
DC was a rare scouting whiff.
From AI:
In professional baseball, Double-A (AA) is widely considered the “true test” and primary separator for future Major League players. While Triple-A is geographically closer to the big leagues, Double-A is where the most significant jump in pure talent occurs and where “true prospects” are distinguished from organizational depth.
Why Double-A is the Ultimate Proving Ground
The “Separator” Level: Double-A acts as a filter where raw physical talent is no longer enough to succeed. Hitters must learn to handle high-velocity fastballs while simultaneously adjusting to advanced off-speed pitches.
Pure Talent Concentration: Double-A typically houses an organization’s top young prospects. Unlike Triple-A, which is often filled with “AAAA” players (veterans too good for the minors but not consistent enough for MLB), Double-A features players with high ceilings who are still ascending.
Direct Promotion: Success at Double-A is so indicative of major league potential that elite prospects frequently jump directly from this level to the Majors, skipping Triple-A entirely.
Comparisons Across High-Minor Levels
Level Primary Role for Prospects Talent Profile
Double-A (AA) Proving ground and “true” developmental test Elite prospects, high-velocity arms, and advanced hitters
Triple-A (AAA) “Taxi squad” or holding tank for injury depth Former MLB players, career minor leaguers, and refined prospects nearing debut
Key Skills That Predict Success
Success at the “upper minors” (AA and AAA) is most predictive when a player demonstrates specific elite metrics:
Age Relative to Level: A younger player (e.g., 20-21) succeeding at Double-A is often seen as a future star.
Strikeout and Walk Rates: These stats are the most “sticky” and likely to translate to the Majors; a hitter who strikes out in more than 25% of plate appearances at these levels is statistically less likely to succeed in MLB.
Contact Quality: Modern scouts look past batting average to prioritize exit velocity and hard-hit rate as the strongest indicators of major league talent.
I am not sure this is still the case. IIRC Friedman has been recently quoted as saying the gap between AAA and MLB has never been bigger.
Obviously, the reduced number of players in MiLB means fewer players with pro experience toiling away. To me this is most evident on the mound, where the gap (this is the Sasaki conundrum) is biggest.
Cody Stanhaven of the Athletic captures this vividly especially how it impacts the final stage of prospect development:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5605564/2024/07/01/mlb-minors-player-reset-torkelson/?redirected=1
Nice article. Thx for sharing.
Does seem the Dodgers emphasize stuff over command
Yeah, I think I remember reading that a while back. Assume it must still be true.
Every organization has their own way of promoting players. And some have to exercise more patience than others. The Dodgers? It would appear they have room for one pitcher and one bench player, should they choose to do it. If everyone on the 26 is healthy, there isn’t much room for anyone. I think they prefer it that way. Proven professionals, 1 through 26, and maybe even deeper than that. And why not if you can afford to do it.
The Arizona Complex League (ACL) Dodgers full roster for the 2026 season, is listed below. As of late April 2026, the team is managed by Fumi Ishibashi. The season begins this Saturday May 2nd.
Outfielders
Samil Dishmey (#67)
Edwardo Espinal
TJ Ford
Aaron Graeber
Jeffery Heard
LeTrey McCollum
Infielders
Moises Bolivar (#7)
Bryan Gonzalez Garcia (#62)
Javier Herrera
Elias Medina (#17)
Aidan West
Pitchers
Peter Bonilla (#59)
Jose Cabrera
Tommy Case
Davion Hickson
Grant Holman
Edgar Leon
Cullen McKay
Roiger Mujica
Jack O’Connor
Christian Oliveira (#33)
Kinn Omosako
Jose Vasquez (#50)
Wuillians Herrera (#12)
Mason Estrada
Catchers
Francisco Espinoza (#30)
Abel Lorenzo (#23)
Jeff could you give us some insight into some o f these Dodger players in this year’s ACL.
Yes, I will go over the players that you listed. But the one that will get the most attention is SS Aidan West, last year’s #4 draft pick out of high school.
At first glance, all of the outfielders listed are in the LAA organization.
Pitcher Grant Holman is with the Tigers.
Tucker must be the most relieved guy on the planet. First time in a long time that I have seen Will Smith fail in a clutch situation twice in a game. Twice with the bases juiced, he did not get the job done. Congrats to Eder on his first Dodger win. Ohtani looks much better at the plate the last couple of games. Does Doc use someone else as the DH tonight?
I think Ohtani has more to say about it than Doc
Maybe but the stats do not lie. He hits under .200 when he pitches. Games like that playoff game against the Brewers last year are more of a fluke than reality. The manager still makes the decisions, not the 700-million-dollar superstar.
Yeah, if Tucker had whiffed at that moment, he and his $60 million annual salary would have been scorched.
Of course with that salary he should be batting .400….
Cheers from London! Watford and I are having drinks discussing the Dodgers and this blog.
Hopefully Mark is able to post a picture of the beautiful Watford and the not so beautiful Bobby.
Jolly Good! Tell Watford that Bear said “Howdy’, hope he understands the western lingo!
Stanton is back on the IL for the Yankees. I remember when he was with the Marlins, I always hoped LA would trade for him. Dodged a bullet there. He has been injured a lot.
News Flash: Phillies just fired Thompson, Don Mattingly is their interim manager. Phils offered the job to Cora, but he declined saying he wants to spend some time with his family. Second manager to bite the dust this season.
The Mets’ manager is next.
Has to be. The Mets have been awful. Imagine if the Dodgers got off to that kind of a start. Fans would be calling for Doc’s head.
Can’t fire the players and the PBO/GM isn’t going to fire him self. So it’s the manager that gets the blame and gets fired.
Mets fall can be blamed on a few things, like losing Soto for a while, but they have also had some injuries. Phillies have just plain played bad. Boston is 2-0 under Tracy.
Ohtani will NOT DH tonight.
Hopefully we don’t get Mendoza again tonight….
Where is JOREL????
God she’s annoying
Great post Mark.
Really happy for Tucker. He needed that. I have yet to get a good read on the guy. Is he sullen and to himself? Does he beat himself up? Is he fitting in with a clubhouse who seems to be very welcoming?
Players aren’t robots.
That’s easy to forget. So many factors influence who is successful and who isn’t. The mission of predicting how a human being will perform is an inexact science and 57% success would be exemplary.
Obviously, some organizations are better than others in making educated guesses, providing coaching and development opportunities, then hope for the best.
As Yogi said, in a word “You-Never-Know”
He smiled a lot last night. Especially after the gator aid bath. Someone should pour some of that on Mendoza. She is awful.
Flash: This just in!
Two International Outlaws spotted in London:
The Infamous Bobby and the Famous Watford Dodger.
Disclaimer: A few pints were killed in the process.
Looking good guys. Hey Watford, we both have aged some since we met. Was a great day that day. Dodgers won, “they were playing the Cubs”, met you guys and a pretty waitress. Looks like Bobby is more into wine than brewski’s
Was great to meet Bobby, a proper Dodgers (and many other sports) fan and gentleman.
Enjoyed a few drinks and chatted about all things Dodgers, LADT and life in general. Hope to do it again sometime.
Yeah that was a fun day Michael. I turned 60 last week. Was a bittersweet day for me. Made me realise that time is flying by and because I am absolutely loving it, I’d like it to slow down a notch or two.
I turn 78 on the 14th of June. My come to Jesus’ moment was in December of 24. That hospital stay and the fact that I am still affected by that episode was a pure wake-up call. I have slowed down a lot. But I still love watching the game and occasionally playing some music. Do not do it as often as I might like though.
Legends
I hear tonight’s Marlins pitcher throws a Junk ball!
Was it just me or was this the weirdest Dodger crowd I’ve seen. It’s like the crowd behind home plate consisted of the left over cardboard cut-outs of fake fans left over from Covid games.
I think Tucker even made reference that he wasn’t sure he’d won the game with the lack of crowd excitement.
The usual cast of fans behind home cleared out early. It was a 2-run game and seemed like 10 – zip. The poachers who overtake that section as the rich-folk clear out, were sparse and sitting on their hands. It’s like the fans mailed it in.
It was a noticeable lack of enthusiasm in the 8th and 9th which is very unusual for Dodger fans who typically get fired up for a late rally.
Probably seen so few walk-off wins lately. Cubs only ahead by two on Friday, same type of crowd. It will change as the season goes on.
Nice Mark, Jason Junk, late of the Angels. Only Hernandez, Call and Tucker have seen Junk before. Edwards and Ruiz are the only Marlins who have seen Ohtani.
Last night, while I was in Miami, a tornado touched down on our property. My wife and Shadrack sheltered in the basement. There was some slight roof damage to the house, but it damaged 300+ feet of fence, felled four trees, and trashed all lawn furniture and the like. I don’t get back until Friday night, but it sure could have been worse.
Glad everyone was safe. Houses can be repaired and everything else replaced.
Devers: .216/.256/.306
I’ve been saying the guy sucks for a while.
Only since he came to the Giants. His average season is .274/33/105 with a .848 OPS. As a Giant, .231/22/61 since he has been there. SF moved him to first. He was below average as a third baseman. But normally, the guy can hit.
Devers: 8.5y $250m left on contract
What the boys at AAA are hitting: Tibbs III, .291/11/23 1.107, Suwinski, .238/5/13 .870, Ward, .313/4/19 .990, Ehrhard, .271/2/20 .747, Fitzgerald, .342/2/26 .902, Gauthier, .231/2/11 .713, Miller, .286/2/17 .801, Senzel, .178/2/11 .562, Alonzo, .327/1/4 .872, Zavala,.179/1/4 .627, Siani, .212/0/7 .604. Ward has the highest OBP at .424. Tibbs III, who leads the PCL with 11 homers, has a .699 slugging percentage.
Glad everyone was safe Mark
Angels released Jordan Romano.
Talk about nepotism: Former Dodger and Philly GM hired his dad as Manager! 😉