I am not going to pile on Roki. Has he pitched well? I do not believe he even believes that. But he is a MLB pitcher. His 80th percentile whiff rate tells you that. He needs to clean up his fastball command as well as his secondary command. His fastball is catching too much of the plate, and the batters are not going to swing at the breaking balls as long as they can get a 4-seamer over the plate.
The Dodgers are about to enter a bruising schedule. After the Mets series and day off, they will play 13 consecutive games, day off, and 6 games, day off, and another 13 consecutive games. That is 32 games in 34 days. Roki needs to stay in the rotation.
His problem is not so much the first time through the order, but the 2nd time.
- 1st inning 4.0 K/BB. 2nd inning 2.0 K/BB. Turns very south in the 3rd with a 0.5 K.BB. He has not allowed a run in the first or second inning this year. 5 runs in the third, and 4 in the 4th. He has reached the 5th inning twice and faced 4 batters, none of whom scored, on only 1 hit. The hit came with the first batter he faced in the 5th before being relieved by Tanner Scott. The one time he finished the 5th, against the Nationals, he retired the side in order, striking out 2.
- 1st time through the order, .217 BA, .612 OPS. 2nd time through the order, .381 BA, 1.233 OPS.
- Pitch 1-25, .200 BA .494 OPS, 3.0 K/BB. Pitch 26-50, .294 BA, 1.294 OPS, 1.0 K/BB. Pitch 51 to 75, .417 BA, 1.225 OPS, .75 K/BB.
- In his three starts, he has 78 pitches, 90 pitches, and 94 pitches.
He reminds me of an early Julio Urías who had the “stuff” but did not trust it. He was always nibbling. After his shoulder surgery, Urías found it in the bullpen, and when he figured it out, he was pretty good. He became a full time starter again in 2020. Although he was very dynamic as a reliever in the post season.
If you send Sasaki down to AAA, he is going to get those free swingers to swing at his pitches. Just like when Urías went down and dominated, only to come back up and continue to nibble. Like Urías, Sasaki relies on chase. They do not chase nearly as much at the MLB level. He needs to figure it out at the MLB level. With a very low chase rate, but an 80th percentile whiff rate, he is getting swing and miss in the strike zone. What he needs to do now is increase that chase rate. Too many of his pitches are a ball out of hand.
Eventually he may need to go back to the pen where he knows success and can gain confidence again. But for now, he needs to start.
River Ryan is getting closer, but he is not MLB ready quite yet. His command is not where it needs to be. 7.0 IP, 2 BB, 10 K, but 9 hits. He is catching too much of the plate. His command will come back. I do not know how many more starts at AAA he needs, but it should not be too long. We need to see where he is at, the beginning of May.
Blake Snell is now throwing live BP. He will need more live BP sessions and then a sim game (or two) before he starts his rehab in MiLB. The prognosis is to return to the rotation late May, and that seems about right.
Gavin Stone has resumed his throwing program again, and is behind Snell. Maybe end of June??? Shoulders take longer, and if he is a trade deadline pickup, that would be great.
So we can continue to get frustrated with Roki, but if not Roki, who? I hope they stay with him until Ryan and Snell are ready. Really they have no choice. Let’s hope one of those mid start bullpen sessions unlocks something for him..
The bullpen is somewhat similar. I am disappointed in Ben Casparius. He was so effective last year until he was supposed to be moved to the rotation. He was moved back and forth and was seemingly never comfortable, and could not get back to where he was. I do think he could use a trip back to OKC to get his confidence back. Although, he is good enough to stick at MLB.
I am not disappointed in Edgardo Henriquez, as I expected the results of his pitching. He can dominate one game, and then come apart the next game. His “stuff” is MLB. His fastball velo is at the 100th percentile and his exit velo is at the 99th percentile. But his whiff and chase rate are below the 20th percentile, which would necessarily give reason to low BB and low K percentiles. He is a lot like Brusdar Graterol who throws hard, but needs to rely on soft contact and ground balls. He is 99th percentile in hard hit % and 96th percentile with ground balls. Those boxes are checked. He is where he needs to be. Will he improve at OKC? Hard to tell. You may hurt his confidence by sending him down. He is a MLB reliever and needs more experience.
Who are you going to bring up to replace Casparius and/or Henriquez?
Well, we just learmed that Kyle Hurt has been recalled to replace an injured Ben Casparius. Hurt has had one very bad outing, allowing 3 runs in 0.1 IP. But he has not had a clean outing in four games. 3BB and 4 K. I would like to see him get more dominant in his relief appearances. It is hard at PCL because it is such a hitters league.
Another OKC reliever close is Paul Gervase. Gervase has had one poor outing, a couple of clean appearances, and a couple where he was dinged a little. In 7.2 IP, 3 BB and 10 K. He has allowed 6 hits, and 2 HBP. Sounds like a middle reliever. Will he get recalled? Perhaps we will see once the 2 strings of 13 consecutive games come.
Like with starters, there is help coming. Brock Stewart is just about ready for a MiLB rehab. Both Evan Phillips and Jake Cousins should be ready at the trade deadline.
I would have liked to see what the Dodgers could have done with Grant Holman. The Dodgers put Gavin Stone on the 60 day IL on April 1 so they could pick Holman up on waivers. But on April 11, the Dodgers DFA Holman, and tried to sneak him through the waiver wires again. Detroit picked him up. Curious, as there does not seem to be a reason for the DFA. The earliest players on the 60 day can be reinstated is May 21.
As Mark said, patience needs to be applied in large doses with Sasaki, Henriquez, and Casparius. The Dodgers have the best record in MLB, and have the requisite depth to handle any adversity. Let’s see if they improve over the next several weeks. If not, then we can see changes at the MLB level.
What is the word on Graterol ?
Wow! Wrobo threw a gem, ala Greg Maddox. Hallmarks like complete games are becoming rarer and it would have been nice if he could have finished. Doc probably crushed the Met’s hopes of breaking up the shutout by bringing in a closer. Probably the sensible thing to do.
And Pages’ keeps on trucking!
Graterol makes Joe Kelly look reliable.
Is Wrobo that good or are the Mets that bad? Probably a little of both. That performance has to give him a lot of confidence going forward. Too bad Roki didn’t draw the Mets.
Yeah, who?
Looking at the Comets pitching stats the pitcher with the most starts and lowest ERA is 32 year old Cole Irvin and his 1.47 WHIP. I haven’t heard his name mentioned here. I think the most likely emergency starter would be River Ryan. There could be a bullpen game thrown in there I suppose but the answer to who appears to be nobody. It’s Roki and his 6+ ERA.
I wonder where the Muncy who hit 3 dingers went.
Hope Ohtani’s shoulder is ok.
Bases loaded no out. 1 run. That just shouldn’t happen.
Is Wrobleski THAT good? He was last night. But the Mets have issues.
How good will this team be when Ohtani and Tucker start hitting? The answer to that has to be “no better” because they are currently playing at .750 which is a 121 win pace. And no team is that good.
In the mean time, this sure is fun.
How good will they be when Freeman gets untracked? Freddie has been ok, but not Freeman like.
I believe there will be games when everyone shows up. Will it happen against better pitching? You know, they kind they will see in October?
That has always been the question. Over the last several years, they struggle against rookie pitchers they have never seen like McLain, who starts for the Mets tonight. Of course, Will Smith, who caught him in the WBC, might be able to offer some insight.
Great thoughts, Jeff. You always know what’s up.
In no exact order, our minor league SP depth seems to be:
Ryan
Ferris
Copen
Root
Zazueta
Serwinowski
But none of those guys–Ryan is still in recovery–is knocking down the door.
Dance with the girl you brung.
I believe that the Dodgers should trade Mookie back to Boston and insert Rojas into the lineup on a permanent basis! I believe they should “unsign” Tucker and get their money back. I believe Max should not hit 3 homers in a game and then strike out the rest of the season. I believe the Dodgers should use an opener for Sasaki! Let’s say , for 7 innings! I believe Teo is not a happy person. He never smiles! I believe Will Smith’s arms are plenty long enough. I believe Blake Snell is not hurt! He just overslept. I believe Andy Pages should not hit any higher than 5th in the lineup! I believe Freddie can hit doubles blindfolded. I believe Ohtani makes outs on purpose so the other teams can have a chance. I believe Dave Roberts gets bored during the regular season. And finally, I believe Wrobleski deserves to stay in the rotation rather than Sasaki! You don’t have to agree or disagree with my beliefs. I’m not sure I believe them myself!
I believe the Dodgers should use an opener for Sasaki! Let’s say , for 7 innings!
Best line of the week! 😉
Sasaki nibbles too much. Ryan’s pitches gets to much of the plate. Maybe they should talk.
What if neither one knows where the ball is going?
Interesting article on the Diaz signing in the Athletic.
Kike’ Hernandez, while still being a free agent, called Friedman to let him know that a window existed for the Dodgers to sign him.
The night before the signing, assistant GM Alex Slater had security come to his hotel room to lower the volume on his TV. He was playing YouTube video of Narco at the time.
Most interesting is this:
The Dodgers could control the 32-year-old Díaz for an additional season thanks to a $6.5 million conditional team option for 2029 with no buyout. The Dodgers could exercise the option if Díaz has a specified injury through the end of the 2028 season, per the Associated Press, and he does not end the season or postseason healthy, or if he has a specified surgery.
Neither the specific injury nor surgery has been disclosed.
Are we seeing the maturation of Justin Wrobleski, or was it just a great outing?
Time will tell, but I see growth and maturity.
I saw both his ability to throw strikes and the Mets inability to hit them.
Take note Yoshi. It’s quite possible you could throw a CG against this lineup.
Of course they could pull a Muncy and wake up for one game. Let’s hope if they do it comes much later in the week.
I see attitude and intense competitiveness and I love it!
I don’t know but I’m here for it.
Cubs outrighted Dylan Carlson. D-Backs are moving Pfaadt to the bullpen.
From 1950 to 1959, only two hitters in the majors hit 300 plus homers and drove in over 1000 runs. Duke Snider 320/1031, and Gil Hodges, 310/1001. Eddie Mathews hit 299 and drove in 777. Mantle hit 280 and drove in 841. Only hitters with more than 900 RBIs in that period, Musial, Berra, and Del Ennis. Ted Williams, who missed two full seasons, hit 227/729. Campy who would miss 58-59 with his injury, hit 211/729. Between the 3 Dodgers, 841/2,761. Challenge anyone to find a trio with those kinds of numbers in any decade.
Fun fact Bear.
They dominated the 50’s but how do those stats compare to any 10 consecutive years ignoring decades.
I will do a little research on that. I know Gehrig from 1927-36 averaged .350/39/152. He averaged 202 hits, 40 doubles, and 141 runs. He also hit 20 of his total 23 grand slams, hit 117 triples and stole 80 bags. This is considered one of the best 10-year stretches for any MLB player. He ended that stretch with two AL MVP awards and won the triple-crown in 1934. Sammy Sosa has the most HRs in a 10-year stretch at 469, 2 more than Ruth’s 467. But finding 3 teammates who did that, maybe in the 20’s and 30’s, but not much of a chance since.
Wasn’t it just about a month ago that we had a glut of pitching in Spring Training? Where did all that depth go? With Snell, Stone, Knack on the IL and Ryan supposedly not ready, are we forced to keep Sasaki in the rotation for now?
Jeff on Roki “Pitch 1-25, .200 BA .494 OPS, 3.0 K/BB. Pitch 26-50, .294 BA, 1.294 OPS, 1.0 K/BB. Pitch 51 to 75, .417 BA, 1.225 OPS, .75 K/BB. He has not allowed a run in the first or second inning this year. 5 runs in the third, and 4 in the 4th.”
That sure looks like a bullpen piece to me. No AAA but I see a move to the bullpen and perhaps get some spot starts down the trail when the situation arises.
Jeff – “Eventually he may need to go back to the pen where he knows success and can gain confidence again. But for now, he needs to start.” I say WHY? Let Hurt and Ryan get starts, if he’s healthy, until Snell and Stone are back.
It does Roki’s development and confidence no good to get starts and suck. He looks like a freighted deer out there.
I respect Jeff’s knowledge no end but in this case I don’t think Sasaki should stay in the rotation out of desperation,
When he left that five-inning start against the Nationals, they were down 6-1. Sorry but Saski sucky saki that day.
Good call.
Threesome of Yamamoto/Glasnow/Ohtani buffered by threesome of Sheehan/Wrobleski/Sasaki.
We need all these guys right now.
Snell is still a ways away.
Hi Phil – totally agree. They have no option but to use Sasaki but are in a great position of his results not actually being the best all and end all at this time. Let him work it out at the MLB level rather than AAA.
On a different note, I hope you’re doing well health wise? Fingers crossed.
Thanks so much Watford. My last test was negative for any bladder cancer and I’m so pleased. I have another scope test in June to keep on top of it. I feel great and am very optimistic. Thanks for caring, mi amigo.
Hurt is no longer a starter. He has been coming into games with runners on and completing less than a full inning (by design). They are trying to get him to be an Alex Vesia type. Late innings, runners on. He has not been all that successful with it to date. But it is a new challenge for him, and he welcomes it.
River Ryan is having his pitch count monitored. He has appeared in 2 games, 7.0 IP, 65 pitches game 1 and 56 pitches game 2. He has not reached 70 pitches yet. In those 7.0 IP, 5 runs (4 earned), 9 hits, 2 BB, 10 K. He is not ready to pitch in MLB yet. He needs to build his pitch count up at MiLB before coming up. Even if he was efficient, he would need 75 pitches to get through 5 innings.
Well if desperation is the best record in baseball. Roki has immense talent. He proved last October that he can handle the big moments. He’ll figure it out and we’ll end up with another ace
As a starter? Doesn’t look like one yet. They can’t keep running a guy out there who constantly puts pressure on the pen and the offense.
He’s this close. (). That being the size of a baseball all around the strike zone. So if the plate was 23” wide instead of 17”, and every hitter in the lineup was 6’6” he could go 5 innings.
Non competitive pitches are hurting him. Here’s the Badger approach – “Roki, throw your slider and 4 seamer right down the middle for strikes 1 & 2, then try the forkball, same approach, right down the middle belt high. Then reverse the order. Oh, and that two seamer you’ve thrown once this year, and for a strike, throw that sucker down the middle once an at bat. Go get ‘em kid.”
I’m betting he can’t hit down the middle with anything but working on trying to might help with that too skinny 17” plate.
No doubt Cassidy about Roki talent but he showed that talent as a closer last year and saved our bacon. While he was a successful starter in Japan, he has yet to show “immense talent” in MLB as a starter. He may someday, but not right now. I think a move to the bullpen sooner than later is the best plan right now. It’s a long season and things change but right now, he isn’t doing the Dodgers or himself any good as a starter.
I hear you Phil. But we’re so good, we can afford a long runway for him. At least until Snell returns end of May. I just believe something will click for him and then we have another #1 or at least a very good #2. Worth being patient right now. And as Jeff pointed out, we don’t have much choice over the next month.
Dodgers traded international space money and a PTBNL to the Phillies for RHP, Griff McGarry. McGarry was not on the Phillies 40-man roster, so LA will not need to clear a roster spot. In 2023, he was ranked as one of the Phillies more promising prospects. Most likely he will be assigned to AAA.
We just can’t stand having that empty 40 man spot.
Well, we want a 6 man rotation. Last year we were using BP games. So we are basically doing a BP game when Sasaki pitches. The difference is this year the other starters are getting deeper into games and not taxing the BP so much. I do think he will be better in relief once we get Snell, Ryan or Stone back.
AA Tulsa todayy:
Fox with 5.2 shutout IP 1 hit
Bruns 3 walks in .2 IP
Hope BA up to .297
JDP 3 stolen bases
Love it!
10:10 PM ET
Mets (7-10)
Dodgers (12-4)
SP Nolan McLean R
1-1 2.70 ERA
SP Y. Yamamoto R
2-1 2.50 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
RF Kyle Tucker L
C Will Smith R
1B F. Freeman L
LF T. Hernandez R
3B Max Muncy L
CF Andy Pages R
SS Hyeseong Kim L
2B A. Freeland S
62° Wind 10 mph Out
Rays Sign Michael Grove, transfer Ryan Pepiot To 60-Day IL.