Which Team in the West Poses the Biggest Threat to the Dodgers?

Well, spring training is underway. Dodger pitchers have looked great in the first four games, allowing just 4 earned runs. They have scored 34 runs in the four games without hitting a home run, which is also pretty impressive considering the power potential of the team. And the pitchers have allowed just one homer. Of course, at 6-3, they now have a couple of home runs.

Their opponents in the NL West, the Giants, are 6-2, the Padres are 4-5, the D-Backs are 5-4, and the Rockies are 6-3. No team has outscored the Dodgers in the Cactus League. The Dodgers are the only team that has allowed fewer than 10 runs. Of course, spring records mean nothing, but it is interesting that the pitching has been so effective this early in spring.

The Giants have scored 4 runs fewer than the Dodgers and given up just 4 fewer. SF has made some additions to their starting lineup with Bader becoming the center fielder and Arraez taking over at second base; their starting 8 will remain the same. They will have a rotating DH. The Giants also have a new manager, Joey Vitello, who has no MLB experience and was the coach at the University of Tennessee.

They lost Verlander from the starting rotation and added Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, and signed former Dodger starter Mitch White to a minor league contract. Webb, Ray, and Roupp will be joined by those three and Carson Seymour in competition for the starting rotation.

The bullpen consists of a couple of familiar names: Matt Gage, Tristan Beck, Jose Brito, and Sam Hentges. It seems, though, that there is a definite lack of the depth the Dodgers have. The Giants will need their starters to pitch deeper into games.

They should have a decent offense. Arraez is a pest and a 3-time batting title winner. They have Devers at first with Adames at SS and Chapman at 3rd, who will supply most of their power. Bailey is an excellent defender behind the plate, but not much of a hitter. His backups have no MLB experience.

The outfield lacks pop, with Ramos the only real homer threat. His defense is not great, but Bader and Lee can play solid defense. Their bench consists of Casey Schmitt, Bryce Eldridge, Drew Gilbert, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Daniel Susac, the starting catcher.

Colorado raided the Dodgers for a new GM, Josh Byrnes, and tabbed former Dodger GM, Paul DePodesta, as the President of Baseball Operations. They took the interim title away from manager Warren Schaffer and changed several coaches. They inherit a total disaster of a team that lost 119 games last year. Second only to the 120-loss New York Mets in modern history.

The starting rotation lost Austin Gomber, who was released, and German Marquez to left via free agency. They replaced them with Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano. They will join holdovers, Anthony Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, and Chase Hollander in the rotation.

The bullpen has holdovers Vodnik, Herget, Halverson, Mejia, and Peralta. The rest of the pen is not very scary, and they have not chosen a closer yet, although it seems Vodnik will be that guy. Overall, the offense is spotty with some good defenders, but Colorado has a long way to go from being a contender.

The Rockies’ offense lacks power and a ton of experience. Their best offensive player is Ezequel Tovar, their SS. 2nd base is manned by Ryan Ritter. He has no power but is decent defensively. Neither 1st baseman has much experience. Edouard Julien came over from the Twins; he has no power to speak of. Blaine Crim got into 20 games last year, 15 of them with the Rockies after his trade from Texas.

Willi Castro and Kyle Karros will share 3rd. Hunter Goodman is the starting catcher. 31 homers last year, good defender, he is backed up by Braxton Fulford, a good glove, no stick catcher. Jordan Beck, Brenton Doyle, and Tyler Freeman are the starting outfield, left to right. Mickey Moniak and Willi Castro will be their backups. Moniak showed some serious power after being traded from the Angels the winter before; he hit 24 homers. Kris Bryant will start the season on the IL again. He is the Rockies’ version of Anthony Rendon. Castro, Moniak, and Julian will share DH duties.

Arizona traded for Nolan Arenado, who is still excellent defensively, but his offense has fallen off since 2021. They have Perdomo at SS, an excellent defender who had a breakout season on offense, hitting 20 homers and driving in 100 runs. Carlos Santana was signed; he will alternate with Pavin Smith at first and he will also DH.

With Ketel Marte at 2nd and Arenado at 3rd, Arizona’s defense should be very good. Their outfield will feature Loudes Gurriel Jr, in left, Alex Thomas in center and Corbin Carroll in right. All three are good defensively, with Carroll providing the bulk of the power. Jordan Lawlar and Jorge Barrosa are the primary backups. Catching will be manned by Gabriel Moreno, who has been a thorn in the Dodgers’ side, with James McCann and Adrian Del Castillo in the wings. DH will be rotated with Santana, Lawlar, Marte, and Smith getting reps there.

The D-Backs’ starting pitching has taken an early hit with Merrill Kelly having back issues. He returns to Arizona after being traded at the deadline to Texas last season. Zac Gallen was resigned for one-year after receiving little interest during free agency. They join Brandon Pfaadt, Edouardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, and free agent signee Michael Soroka as starting candidates. Corbin Burnes will start the year on the 60-day IL and is not expected back until after the All-Star break.

Arizona resigned former closer, Paul Sewald. Three of their better bullpen arms will begin the year on the IL: AJ Puk, Justin Martinez, and Andrew Saalfrank. The rest of the pen has guys like Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, John Curtiss, Brandyn Garcia, and Juan Morillo. Not exactly household names, but there is some talent there. Ginkel has some nasty stuff.

Now we look at the Padres, who, in my opinion, are the most serious threat to the Dodgers. The reason for that is pretty simple. Last year, the Pads finished 90-72. Just 3 games back of the Dodgers. And they did it on the strength of their pitching, especially their bullpen.

Their offense went to sleep in the Wild Card round against the Cubs, scoring just 5 runs in the three games. The Cubs scored just 6, but they outdueled the Padres’ two best starters, Darvish and Pivetta. The Padres’ closer from last season, Robert Suarez, moved on in free agency, but they have a solid replacement in flamethrowing Mason Miller. Miller is not a free agent until 2030.

Behind him are guys like Adrian Morejon, whose 13 wins out of the pen tied him with Pivetta for the team lead, Jason Adam, Jeramiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, and David Morgan. A solid relief corp. The starting rotation gets Joe Musgrove back, but how effective he will be after missing all of 25 is a question.

Darvish, although he is not on the IL, has some injury concerns and does not want to return unless he is 100%. They resigned Michael King, signed German Marquez as a free agent, and Griffin Canning. Randy Vazquez returns as does Matt Waldron, who is currently having injury issues. Overall, a pretty good staff, but not necessarily deep.

Catching will be handled by Felix Fermin and Luis Campusano. Both are solid defensively, with Fermin having the better offense at this point. Gavin Sheets, a free agent signee last year, will be given the first shot at playing first with Arraez gone. His backups will be newly signed Nick Castellanos, Jake Cronenworth, and free agent signee Miguel Andujar.

Cronenworth is the starting 2nd baseman, with Wil Wagner as his backup. Also, KBO signee Sung-Mun Song. SS is Xander Bogaerts. He is backed up by Matt McCoy. Manny Machado remains at 3rd. He plays almost every day, but Song and Wagner can back him up.

Outfield consists of Laureano in left, Merrill in center, and Tatis Jr in right. Solid defensively and a pretty steady offense. Merrill is trying to return to the form he displayed in his rookie season. Laureano was excellent offensively after he was traded, and Tatis Jr still has so much potential. He has not reached the power numbers he had 4 years ago, but he still provides some pop.

Castellanos, Johnson, Sheets, and Song are outfield backups. DH will be guys like Sheets, Castellanos, Andujar, and Song. To beat the Pads, you need to get to their starters as early as possible. That bullpen is going to curb a lot of comebacks. The offense does not have the same power potential as the Dodgers do, and they strike out a lot. They will go as far as their pitching carries them. The Padres have a new manager, Craig Stammen, a former pitcher. He has no managerial experience.

My prediction for the West is LA 1st, about 95 wins. SD 2nd, 89-92 wins. Arizona 3rd, 85-87 wins. SF 4th, 80-83 wins, and the Rockies. Dead last, if they win more than 60, I will be totally surprised.