No Risk – No Reward!

Most fans do not read too much into the Dodgers’ pickup of Jack Suwinski on waivers from the Pirates, but he could actually make the Opening Day roster (with a good spring) as he is out of Minor League options. He may actually have an outside chance at breaking camp with Los Angeles due to his ability to play center field. He hit 26 HR in 2023, but like James Outman, his strikeout rate is just borderline stupid! If anyone can unlock his hitting potential, it is the Dodgers’ system, with Robert Von Socyoc and Aaron Bates.

Because utility man Tommy Edman will start the year on the injured list, the Dodgers are lacking center-field depth behind projected starter Andy Pages. They have spoken about getting Hyeseong Kim some reps in center, but he has primarily played the infield in his career, and his defensive metrics in CF are not good… Defensive specialist Michael Siani is also on the 40-man roster, but his bat has not played at the big league level.

Ryan Ward is trade bait, and the signing of Suwinski pretty much cements that. The Dodgers are giving him an opportunity to show out.

OLD FRIENDS

Old Friend, Miguel Vargas is being widely identified as a breakout candidate for the 2026 season. Following an underwhelming 2024 campaign in which he struggled to make an impact with the White Sox after a trade from the Dodgers, Vargas turned a corner in 2025, leading analysts to predict a significant leap forward in 2026. I have always said that progress is not linear, but I have always touted his tools. Here is why analysts and projections are high on a Miguel Vargas breakout:

  • Improved 2025 Performance: After struggling to a .175 average from 2022–2024, Vargas rebounded in 2025 to hit .234 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI in 138 games.
  • Strong Second Half 2025: Vargas finished the 2025 season strong, hitting .277 with four home runs and 17 RBI over his last 112 at-bats following an All-Star break turnaround.
  • Physical Changes and Elite Contact Skills: Vargas reported to 2026 Spring Training in better physical shape, adding muscle to address weight loss issues from previous seasons. He maintains a solid 9.8% walk rate and an improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
  • Opportunity and Role: He is expected to start every day at third base for the White Sox in 2026 and hit in the middle of the lineup, providing high-volume opportunities for production.
  • High-Value Fantasy Sleeper: With an ADP (Average Draft Position) often north of 250, he is considered a very low-risk, high-reward “sleeper” or “deep league” pick for 2026. 
  • Elite Statistical Backing: One comprehensive analysis (SPARK Score) ranks him as the #1 breakout candidate for 2026 among all young non-All-Stars, noting he improved in virtually every measurable category last season.
  • Guaranteed Playing Time: Vargas is projected to be the Chicago White Sox’s everyday third baseman and hit in the middle of their order.
  • Underlying Metrics: In 2025, he posted a career-high 40.5% hard-hit rate and a significantly improved 17.6% strikeout rate.
  • Fantasy “Sleeper” Status: He is a frequent “sleeper” pick in fantasy baseball circles, with projections suggesting he could reach 23–25 home runs and a batting average over .270 if he stays healthy. 

Key Perspectives on his 2026 Potential

  • The Bull Case: Proponents argue that his 2025 “step forward” was just the beginning. They highlight his improved bat-to-ball skills (83.4% contact rate) and believe his home run-to-flyball ratio (7.6%) was unlucky and is due for a massive positive regression.
  • The Bear Case: Some skeptics remain cautious, noting that while his 2025 was better, he was still only a “league-average” hitter (101 wRC+). They point to his below-average bat speed (70.6 mph) as a potential ceiling on his power breakout.
  • Clubhouse Role: Vargas has expressed high personal excitement for 2026, stating his goal is to play all 162 games at third base for the White Sox. 

Miggy is no longer a Dodger, but I root for him as I root for other ex-Dodgers, such as Michael Busch, Caleb Ferguson, and Keibert Ruiz. Except when they play the Dodgers. What about Alex Verdugo, you may ask? Here was Alex, the last I saw him.

Baseball Prospectus

Here’s what BP says about the Dodgers:

LA Dodgers (105-57, 11 more wins than the next best team)
Listen, I understand. Everyone thinks the Dodgers are going to be very good in 2026 and PECOTA is no exception, but I wanted to include them as an added nugget because they’ve kind of broken the system. Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality. The second-best team in our projections, the Seattle Mariners, come out with about 11 wins more than the 14th-best team… which is, more or less, the same gap between the Dodgers and Mariners. The system projects the Dodgers to have close to a 40% chance to reach the World Series outright and 22% odds to win it all, both nearly twice as much as anyone else.
This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest. And it’s not just Kyle Tucker! As strong of a projection as a 135 DRC+ and 4.5 WARP is, the Dodgers would still be on another planet relative to the rest without him—Tucker just makes them all the more ridiculous. Ohtani is Ohtani, projecting for a combined 9.5 WARP between hitting (6.4 WARP as a DH) and pitching. Mookie Betts gets a bounceback projection that amounts to roughly 5 WARP, and the system might actually be underselling Will Smith a little. Freeman and Muncy should both be worth three or more wins, enough to make up for the misery of playing meager two-win p
layers such as Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, and Andy Pages everyday. The outrage!
But the real craziness is on the pitching side. Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Glasnow, Sheehan; the highest projected DRA- of that group is Glasnow’s 90, which would make him an excellent no. 2 for most teams. Roki Sasaki (107 DRA-) is no darling of the system and it just doesn’t matter because PECOTA is more than fine with the depth starters too. (One of them could very easily be trade bait if the Dodgers seek another outfielder.) They also signed Edwin Díaz (70 DRA-) and have like 17 relievers with average or better projections, Tanner Scott among them.
The consolation? The Dodgers are a very veteran team; almost every regular is over 30 and a handful are well into their mid-thirties. Maybe there’s only a couple more years of this to be subjected to. The bad news for that hope? Tucker and Yamamoto are probably still peaking right now. Ohtani exists. The even worse news for those hoping the Dodgers will just go away? Our Top 101 prospects list and organizational prospect rankings. Buckle up, folks.

— Baseball Prospectus

This article has 63 Comments

  1. Siani is a defensive replacement, no more no less.

    I don’t understand why Call can’t play CF.

    The prospects are for real. Ferris & Hope are both blue-chips.

  2. Kopp still looks raw. Glad we protected him but the stuff needs to tighten up a bit. Duran looked good.

  3. 1B Busch
    2B McKinstry
    SS Seager
    3B Vargas
    C Ruiz
    RF Raley
    CF Bellinger
    LF Cruz
    DH Alvarex

    Feduccia, Vedugo, Pederson, Lux, Santana, Farmer

    Eovaldi, Kremer, Holmes, Pepiot,
    Uceta, Jansen, Fischer

    Almost a full roster of Dodger drafties and signings still floating around out there in MLB. Probably missing a couple guys. I don’t think Friedman got Eovaldi, Santana, or Jansen into Blue though.

    1. Suwinski is low-risk gamble. A good signing.
      He impressed early in his career. Yes, he could make the 26-man roster ahead of Call, Siani, etc if he has an impressive spring.
      He’s kind of the OF version of Senzel–young veterans trying to get back to the show. If Miggy Ro gets hurt, Senzel could get the call ahead of Freeland and become Max’s platoon partner at 3B

  4. “The Cubs are signing outfielder Michael Conforto, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The terms of the deal are not yet known. The Cubs have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding 40-man move if Conforto is being added on a major league deal, but that can be easily accomplished by transferring right-hander Shelby Miller to the 60-day injured list”.

    We get Tucker and the Cubs get Conforto. Nice deal!

  5. With Kike on the 60 day , does it open up a spot for either Senzel or Suwinski break spring training with the team? Suwinski has always perked my interest. Seems like he had some good games against the Dodgers in the past. His power would be a welcome addition to the bench. Senzel would add versatility and potentially a better hitter than Suwinski. Wouldn’t it be just “Dodger like” for one of those guys to be a valuable addition to an already great team?
    Getting a great vibe about Teo! It’s early, he looks great so far. Physically? Really good! Mentally? Not worrying about his health and the trade rumors, only makes things that much better for one of the most liked guys in baseball!

    Graterol just may be one of those players who never ever is healthy. Hope that isn’t the case, it sure seems like it. If healthy, he can be a monster!
    Lastly, Catman. Hopefully he gets another opportunity with someone. Love watching him pitch. Somewhere like Kansas City or Baltimore. Just not in the national league!

  6. 3:05 PM ET

    Mariners (90-72)
    Dodgers (93-69)

    SP Logan Gilbert R
    0-0 .00 ERA
    SP Landon Knack R
    0-0 .00 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    2B Hyeseong Kim L
    LF T. Hernandez R
    CF Andy Pages R
    C D. Rushing L
    3B S. Espinal R
    SS A. Freeland S
    DH Keston Hiura R
    RF Zach Ehrhard R
    1B James Tibbs L

    82° Wind 6 mph R-L

  7. The Los Angeles Dodgers have reportedly agreed to a deal with 21-year-old Cuban right-handed pitcher Yadier Zamora as of February 20, 2026. The agreement is pending a physical and is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.

    Player Profile and Scouting
    A native of Las Tunas, Cuba, Zamora is a high-upside arm who has been training in Mexico with the Thompson Sport Agency.

    Physical Stature: He stands at 6’3″ and is noted for his physical projection within the MLB system.
    Velocity: His fastball consistently sits between 93–97 mph, reaching a peak of 97 mph during his most recent tryouts.

    Repertoire: In addition to his high-velocity fastball, Zamora features a slider, splitter, and changeup.

    Experience: He previously gained experience pitching in Cuba’s Serie Nacional for his home province of Las Tunas before leaving the country in May 2025.

    1. AF might have lost 4 picks in the upcoming MLB First Year Player’s Draft this coming July by signing Diaz and Tucker ,but is more than making up for it by keep signing quality International players.He will eventually be headed to the Hall of Fame as one of the BEST, if not the BEST executive in all of baseball.

      1. We filled the gaps with Tucker and Diaz better than 4 draft choices would have. I think AF uses draft picks like trading cards. International signings easily make up for the lost draft signings and they’re usually cheaper despite the extra years required to see results.

    1. Just watched the interview. Thanks for sharing. The Dodger’s future is extremely bright with some REALLY talented young players in the pipeline.

    2. From that link, I’m guessing Sirota joins dodgers mid-season and from the preseason to date, I’m thinking Freeland starts the year on the Dodgers.

        1. But why isn’t Sirota at spring training? The other hyped OF prospects are there, as well as George, Tibbs and Ward
          I assume a minor injury…

    3. Excellent podcast! My only question is, How the hell did we get the Cubbies to give up Ferris? Casey thinks the sky is the limit for him.
      Ontero looks like a can’t mis guys.
      Again, good stuff!

      1. As we all have noticed that AF usually gets the better end of every trade deal and especially when there is a pitcher involved from the other team. HOF AF!!!! LHP Adam Serwinowski we traded for from the Rays last year in the Feduccia is another prime example.

        1. Adam Serwinowski is a 21-year-old left-handed pitching prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers, currently wearing jersey #73 as a non-roster invitee to 2026 Spring Training. Acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in July 2025, he is recognized for a high-velocity fastball that has touched 101 mph and a high-spin sweeping slider.

          Player Profile
          Serwinowski is a highly projectable “power-armed” lefty known for a “funky” delivery and significant extension.

          Position: Starting Pitcher
          Physicals: 6’5″, 191 lbs
          Draft: 15th round (2022) by the Cincinnati Reds
          Current Status: Non-roster invitee to 2026 Dodgers Spring Training
          Prospect Ranking: Ranked as the #11 (FanGraphs) to #14 (Baseball America) prospect in the Dodgers system for 2026.

          1. The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired left-handed pitching prospect Adam Serwinowski from the Cincinnati Reds on July 31, 2025, as part of a three-team trade that also included the Tampa Bay Rays.

            Trade Details
            In this deadline-day transaction, the Dodgers sent catcher Hunter Feduccia to the Rays and received Serwinowski along with two other players.

            Team Received Sent
            Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Adam Serwinowski (from CIN), RHP Paul Gervase (from TB), C Ben Rortvedt (from TB) C Hunter Feduccia (to TB)
            Tampa Bay Rays C Hunter Feduccia (from LAD), RHP Brian Van Belle (from CIN) RHP Zack Littell (to CIN), RHP Paul Gervase (to LAD), C Ben Rortvedt (to LAD)
            Cincinnati Reds RHP Zack Littell (from TB) LHP Adam Serwinowski (to LAD), RHP Brian Van Belle (to TB)

  8. Uneventful flight to Phoenix. We have an AirB&B in Scottsdale with our son and his family. They brought his wife’s younger sister as a au pair for the kids. ;). My son and I plan to be at Camlback Ranch at 11:30 today.

  9. “The Braves announced Tuesday that they’ve signed veteran left-hander Chris Sale to a one-year, $27MM contract extension with a $30MM club option for the 2028 season. (Atlanta is one of the few teams that publicly discloses contract terms itself.) The Wasserman client was slated to reach free agency this coming winter but will instead stick with Atlanta through at least 2027”.

  10. 3:05 PM ET

    Guardians (88-74)
    Dodgers (93-69)

    SPGavin Williams R
    0-0 .00 ERA
    SP Gavin Stone R
    0-0 .00 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    RF Kyle Tucker L
    C Will Smith R
    1B F. Freeman L
    LF T. Hernandez R
    CF Andy Pages R
    2B A. Freeland S
    3B Nick Senzel R
    DH Keston Hiura R

    80° Wind 3 mph Out

  11. Yes it is early in spring training but the Dodgers won their first 3 games and are leading 7-3 in the 4th inning today. Teo and Pages are tearing it up. Each at .714 BA. Pages’ OPS is a ridiculous 1917. Smitty and Freddie are also cranking with EX hits.
    Are the dodgers starting out hot? Down at the station house, they call that a clue. This team is smokin!

  12. We are having fun in Arizona , At the game today, but my computer took a crap and I hate posting on an I-pad. So I will catch you up on SATURDAY AFTER I GET BACK.

  13. 3:10 PM ET

    Dodgers (93-69)
    Diamondbacks (80-82)

    SP Roki Sasaki R
    0-0 .00 ERA
    SP Zac Gallen R
    0-0 .00 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    CF Hyeseong Kim L
    3B S. Espinal R
    C D. Rushing L
    2B A. Freeland S
    1B Ryan Ward L
    DH Nick Senzel R
    RF James Tibbs L
    LF Zach Ehrhard R
    SS Noah Miller S

    83° Wind 5 mph L-R

  14. Yahoo sports headline talking about Comforto.
    ….Dodgers lose $17 million outfielder, World Series champion to Cubs in free agency…
    I believe LOSE is a bit of an exaggeration.

    1. Haha

      As bad as he was, my son and I never hated him. Mostly felt for him. The season was like a long bad dream he coukdn’t shake.

      Seems like a helluva nice guy.

  15. Star closer Edwin Diaz will take the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks in a game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. First pitch is set for 12:10 p.m. Pacific Time.

  16. My laptop crapped out so I have a few minutes on my phone.

    Stock down:
    Siani. – DFA candidate
    Call – where is he?
    Henriquez

    Stock up:
    Freeland
    Stone
    Pages
    Teo
    Rojas
    Espinal
    DePaula
    Miller

    1. Siani is the postseason defensive replacement–no more no less

      Rumor has it we’re faking Call’s injury to give an NRI a chance

    1. Kim had a couple of hits yesterday. Hitting.500, playing solid D in center and stealing bases. But the Dodgers want seasoned veterans nor spark plugs. Well, the Dodgers have scored an average of around 8 runs a game (just guessing) and no homers yet. Imagine that.

  17. “The Blue Jays are reportedly bringing Max Scherzer back on a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client is guaranteed $3MM and can reportedly earn up to $10MM in incentives. Toronto can open space on the 40-man roster by placing Anthony Santander on the 60-day injured list once the contract is finalized”.

  18. Mark: Would love to join you today but lots going on and can’t break free of the grind. Please let me know when you finalize your move to Phoenix.

  19. 3:10PM ET

    White Sox (60-102) (4-2)
    Dodgers (93-69) (5-0)

    SP Sean Newcomb L
    0-0 .00 ERA
    SP Tyler Glasnow R
    0-0 .00 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    DH Kyle Tucker L
    C Will Smith R
    1B F. Freeman L
    LF T. Hernandez R
    3B Max Muncy L
    CF Andy Pages R
    RF Alex Call R
    2B Hyeseong Kim L

    84° Wind 2 mph Out

  20. We are meeting old friend and former Dodger BEAT WRITER, Tony Jackson and LADODGERTALK READER, Paul Vu for the game. On Tuesday, there were a lot of people disguised as empty seats.

  21. Dodger top prospect Josue De Paula has now reached base in six consecutive plate appearances over the last three games — four singles, a double and a walk.

  22. Bill Plunkett
    @billplunkettocr
    #Dodgers Dave Roberts said Mookie Betts won’t play in a game before Sunday and it might not be until “early next week.”
    “I wanted Mookie to start a little bit later as far as not getting into spring training ready to go, and kind of use spring training to build up.”

    Bill Plunkett
    @billplunkettocr
    Roberts: “We wanted him to ramp up differently” after devoting so much energy to his transition to shortstop leading into last spring

  23. GLENDALE, Ariz. — With a limited time to make a good impression in his second big league camp, Hyeseong Kim has already given the Dodgers a lot to think about. But for the next two weeks or so, the position battle at second base will proceed without him.

    Kim is departing Dodgers camp to join Team Korea for the World Baseball Classic after Thursday afternoon’s 7-6 win over the White Sox at Camelback Ranch. He appeared in four Cactus League games and performed well in that small sample.

    Team Korea faces tough competition in Pool C play, which goes from March 5-10 at Tokyo Dome and features defending champion Japan, Chinese Taipei, Australia and Czechia. If Korea doesn’t advance past pool play, then Kim could be back at Camelback Ranch with about a week and a half of exhibition games remaining.

    Until then, the Dodgers will have to do their best to evaluate Kim’s progress from afar. He left the team something to remember him by, launching his first spring home run — a go-ahead solo shot — in his final at-bat.

    Asked whether he thought that was a good note to end on before his departure, Kim turned the question around.

    “Could you please ask that question to Dave Roberts?” he said, deadpan, through interpreter Dean Kim.

    Kim’s manager thought it was indeed.

    “He’s had a great camp so far,” Roberts said. “I just love the way he plays the game. Home run was icing on the cake, exclamation mark, whatever you want to say. But I wish him well, and can’t wait to get him back.”

    This spring, Kim hit 6-for-13 with five singles. He drove in five runs, scored three and stole two bases. He also started in center field on Wednesday and made a pair of impressive running catches, his elite speed helping ease his transition to what is still a relatively new position for him.

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