Back in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, when I was going to Dodgertown in Vero Beach, Florida, I made friends with an old, white-haired baseball writer for Baseball America, named Bill. He was in his mid-70’s, retired, and was there with his wife. Before the games, we would talk about Dodger Prospects. Suddenly, I stopped seeing him, and I assumed that he had moved on to be with the Big Dodger in the Sky. Baseball America was founded in 1981 by Allan Simpson and Gary Gillette. I discovered it sometime in the late 80’s.
The origin story is wonderfully scrappy. It began as a small, black-and-white newspaper produced in North Carolina, aimed at something the mainstream sports press barely touched at the time: amateur baseball, the draft, and prospects. Simpson and Gillette treated high school kids and college arms like tomorrow’s big leaguers, not footnotes. That focus became Baseball America’s “secret sauce”. They were early, meticulous, and unembarrassed about caring deeply. Over time, MLB front offices started reading it quietly… then openly… then religiously.
In the 1990’s, BA became the ‘baseball authority,” and its Annual Top 100 Prospects lists became required reading. BA relied heavily on scout interviews, not stat sheets. They were the first outlet to treat tools, makeup, and projection as structured concepts. A prospect wasn’t just good. He had: “present tools, future projection, risk, and development path. This made an immediate impact on baseball. While front offices didn’t agree with BA, they respected it. That matters more.
In 2001, they came out with the “Baseball America Prospect Handbook” – I still have mine and every one subsequent. This is still one of the things I await with baited breath… although it’s now also available online to BA subscribers. I drop a couple of hundred dollars a year in my Baseball America Subscription and the three baseball books they publish, including the Prospect Handbook. To me, it’s well worth it.
By the 2000’s, Baseball America was the “Bible for Baseball.” Teams subscribed in bulk, agents quoted it, fans argued over it, and draft rooms referenced it. BA also expanded to covering international prospects, college baseball coverage, and minor league systems rankings. BA was still scout-first. Still human. Still occasionally stubborn. However, their impact was undeniable; BA shaped the language of prospect evaluation.
In the 2010’s, new voices emerged. FanGraphs leaned hard into data. MLB Pipeline had league access and video. Statcast rewired evaluation. BA adapted, but cautiously, as they integrated analytics, still emphasized live looks, and maintained relationships with scouts, even as teams went quieter. BA became the scout-first counterweight to data-heavy sites. Fans argue which ones are right as front offices use all three. They are all focused on solving different parts of the same “prospect puzzle.”
How well does BA do? I asked the AI how accurate they are about prospects. No one gets it right all the time, but here is what I discovered about BA’s Top 100 from 1990m to 2015:
- Reached MLB – 70-75%
- > 5 Career WAR – 40-45%
- >10 Career WAR – 25-30%
- Star > 20 Career WAR – 10 – 15%
BA excels in the following:
- Floor identification: spotting who will at least be useful
- Pitching depth: arms with multiple paths to value
- Amateur evaluation: especially college hitters and polished prep bats
But, BA also struggles with ultra-athletic, late-bloom profiles, fringe defensive players, and players whose value comes from optimization rather than tools. The Dodgers are a classic example. The Dodgers routinely confound traditional scouting narratives by drafting “boring” players and developing them into monsters (not literally). Examples of this are Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Will Smith (although not all were “drafted” by the Dodgers – they were developed by the Dodgers). Of course, BA got Seager, Kershaw, and Buehler right…. duh!
Baseball America measures what a player is; modern player development teams measure what a player can become; analytics sites estimate what a player is likely to produce. The best organizations, like the Dodgers, fuse all three. BA still matters because tools still matter, makeup still matters, and context still matters. But the game now rewards change, and that’s the hardest thing to scout.
Baseball America is currently owned by a baseball-focused investment group rather than a big corporate media conglomerate. BA was acquired in February 2017 by a group led by Alliance Baseball, LLC — a company involved in owning and operating minor league baseball franchises. This ownership operates the business as Baseball America Enterprises, based in Durham, North Carolina, and continues to publish the magazine and run its digital and event businesses.
Now we also have MLB Pipeline, which is operated by MLB. It is Video-heavy, published with clean, polished rankings, has access to teams, facilities, and Statcast feeds, and has an optimistic tone by design, asking: “How good could this player be if things go right?” On the other hand, Baseball America is independent, scout-sourced, more skeptical, willing to ding players for risk, and will say “role player” out loud. In comparison to MLB Pipeline, BA asks: “What is this player most likely to become, and why might he not get there?”
Then along came Keith Law, who is an important part of this story, mostly because he represents the pivot away from old-guard scouting prose toward evidence-driven evaluation.
His influence came first through front-office work, then public analysis, not organization capsules. Keith Law did not write for Baseball America as a regular correspondent, but rather, emerged in the early–mid 2000s as a counterpoint to the BA-style voice. Keith Law worked in the Cleveland Indians front office under Mark Shapiro and was greatly influenced by probability, statistical indicators, and developmental outcomes. He entered the public domain at ESPN and became the first mainstream analyst to openly critique tools-only scouting, routinely call out bad drafts, and downgrade “athletic but raw” prospects early. That alone put him on a different axis than BA at the time.
Early on, Law was actually skeptical of the Dodgers, much like BA, but for different reasons. He questioned his tools, swing decisions, and the consistency of their player development. Later, after the Dodgers evolved under Andrew Friedman, Keith Law became one of the first national analysts to acknowledge the team’s systemic excellence, especially in pitching development and swing optimization. It’s ironic that BA was late to trust the transformation, but Law was late to trust the Dodgers. Both eventually converged.
I don’t have the time, nor the inclination, to dig deeper into who is right or wrong in evaluating prospects. Keith Law was right more often on hitters; Baseball America was right more often on pitchers. The Dodgers eventually learned to exploit both perspectives, and they are currently among the best organizations in baseball at developing prospects. In fact, I would argue that they are the model.
In conclusion, here is what I say about the Big Three Ranking Services:
- MLB Pipeline – Fast Food (Think McDonald’s… maybe Chick-fil-A)
- Baseball America – Steak
- Keith Law – Lobster
All are useful, but BA and Keith Law are the ones I take most seriously. That Keith Law (one man) has become an institution is amazing, and his insights are valued highly!
Good stuff. I’m a BA man myself but I do acknowledge their weaknesses. I still think they favor youth/upside over level/practical value.
They have a growth stock mindset which is probably wise but can lead to oversights on more steady investments.
Interesting report.
Question: Are the MLB.com rankings the same as MLB Pipeline? I wonder whether the beat writers play a role in creating the lists.
Here are the current Top 5 Dodger prospects on mlb.com:
1 De Paula
2 Hope
3 Quintero
4 Freeland
5 Sirota
From what I read, all four of the outfielders have all-star potential–and Law ranks Quintero as the best. (Both he and De Paula get comparisons to Soto.) Freeland seems more like a solid UT upside.
So does Freeland replace Max or do we get another 3b?
I do not think Freeland is a regular and I would love to be wrong!
What about Lux? 😉
Interesting you don’t rate FanGraphs or BP.
But for those three, it’s a fun take.
I can’t take BP seriously, and I see Fangraphs as a slow-moving late-entry who has some good stuff at times.
I suspect there’s a lot of groupthink involved, especially among the latecomers. And now we could ask AI to produce its own rankings by scouring
At this point, we could all pretend to be Keith Law, without acquiring the actual expertise. I can certainly regurgitate what I’ve read and put my own spin on it. (Mine bias would give a bit extra weight to experience and fielding. I suspect that hitting gets more emphasis simply because it is easier to quantify.)
A nit to pick: Why does Law rate Toronto phenom Trey Yesavage at No. 25? This puts him behind three other pitchers. How could the Blue Jays’ young ace, who has now proven himself at the highest level of competition, also be ranked behind Quintero and de Paula and other guys who haven’t even crushed AA ball yet?
Understand that I don’t question Law’s sincerity, In fact, ranking Yesavage at 25 arguably demonstrates his sincerity, because it would be easy to put him in in the top 5. But I’d argue that Yesavage has proven himself and several players rated ahead of him simply haven’t.
The nitpicking is part of my point. Some years ago Skubal was ranked as in the 50s on one list, but of course he turned out to be the best pitcher in the bunch.
Yesavage hasn’t had enough starts with good command and control to say his brief post season performance was who he really is.
Siani was DFAd by the Yankees today after they acquired P Angel Chivilli from the Rockies.
The Dodgers might try to get Siani back to put him in OKC.
But Siani is probably seeking a better ML opportunity.
Jerry Hairston, Jr.
@TheRealJHair
“Was on the ‘12 team where MLB had to step in so we could get paid in April. Team was bought a few weeks later by a group that poured money into the Stadium, city & players. Titles didn’t just happen overnight. They created a culture where players like Ohtani & Teo etc wanted to come here. Mookie was available in trade & Freddie was let go by a franchise that wanted to go a different direction. A lot of teams have money, very few have created a Culture & Vibe the way the Dodgers have”.
He was referring to when Frank McCourt owned the team in 2012 and went bankrupt.
… and ended up a Billionaire! 😉
I think that the Dodgers have a “superteam” except for one position. That being 2B. Kim is a great defensive player with speed, but he is not a cog in a championship team. He is a guy the Dodgers could “get by” with, but I think he will OPS under .700.
If the Dodgers had Brendon Donovan at 2B, they would have a true Superteam. They have to collateral to get him and it starts with Kim and Freeland, I would explore that deal.
1. Ohtani DH
2. Betts SS
3. Tucker RF
4. Samith C
5. Freeman 1B
6. Teoscar LF
7. Muncy 3B
8. Pages CF
9. Donovan 2B
Bench: Rushing, Edman, Kike, Rojas, Call
That team would be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO good!
Mark, someone on your bench has to go. You can only have 13 position players.
Shohei is also a pitcher, so it gives you an extra position player.
Even though Ohtoni is considered a pitcher and position player(DH) you can only have 4 bench position players, but 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster under the MLB Ohtoni Rule. The advantage is the extra pitcher.
You also Forgot Andy Ibanez.
Was thinking the exact same thing, Donovan or Hoerner. We do have a lot of Prospect Capital.
Interesting that we had interest in Peralta. Seems a little odd given we have Sheehan, Stone and Ryan as well as well as the big 4. Wonder what the thinking was behind that?
AF probably heard the Mets were interested and tried to drive the price up with prospects on a trade for Peralta. Can’t see any logical reason why the Dodgers would need or want him. He had a career year last year.
Driving the price up.
Yep, Sir!
I forgot about Sasaki!
Don’t know if you’re a fan of Baseball Trade Values, Mark, but I ran your trade for Donovan up the flagpole and BTV says if you start with Freeland and Kim you’d need to add something like Henriquez and either Sirota or Hope. Actually they say Kim has slightly negative trade value so you could actually pull him out of that deal and keep him.
What say you?
Hope, Kim, and Freeland. Hell, give them Knack and Miller, too.
Do we need Donovan?
Edman was a gold glove at 2nd base. I anticipate his hitting to get back to 2024 level after his surgery.
Nope.
To me, Donovan represents a minor upgrade over what the Dodgers already have at 2B–certainly not enough of an upgrade to include Hope or any of the other top OF prospects in a deal. (For a major upgrade, see if the D’backs would deal Ketel Marte to a division rival.) At any rate, Donovan’s splits suggest that he should be platooned.
I think Kim has untapped potential. He had a solid rookie season acclimating to the US and MLB, and could build on it if he gets the kind of opportunity the Dodgers gave Miguel Vargas a few seasons back. We know the Kim is a top-tier fielder with top-tier speed. He batted .280, but struck out too much. There’s no reason to think he can’t improve.
The powerhouse Dodgers know they don’t need to win 110 games to win the West. They can slow-play the season and balance the workloads. They are uniquely positioned to give young players like Kim and Dalton Rushing more opportunities to develop.
Absolutely NOT, for what the high price the Cards would want in return. Give the kids a chance to fight it out for second base until Edman returns off the IL.
How do we replace 5,6,7 position in two years, will be very interesting.
Trust that AF and BG will figure it out. They always do. When you have more money available , brainpower and shrewdness than everyone else, it becomes less of a problem.
Get Busch back to start, replacing Freddie. His feelings might be hurt, but a WS ring would heal all. The rest can come from the minors or a FA.
It’s already a beast of a team with the current options at 2B: Edman, Kim, Rojas, Ibanez and Freeland.
Donovan is a good player, especially against northpaws. He had an .854 OPS against righties in 2025 but only .614 against lefties. That’s a pretty big split, probably enough to warrant a platoon.
In this lineup, I’d argue that OBP is the most important stat for the “second leaoff” hitter.
My druthers would be to give Kim the opportunity to improve on his rookie season. He batted .280 and had a .699 OPS, roughly league-average, in only 161 ABs. The problem was that he struck out too much, and also that Roberts used him in a quasi-platoon even though a small sample showed reverse splits.
Unlike Edman and Rojas, Kim is not a finished product. There’s opportunity for growth. If he can cut down on Ks and get on base more, he might be better than Donovan.
I would save my bullets for someone special.
If I didn’t mention it, I will be at Camelback Ranch on February 24th and 26th.
Hope you’ll do an interview as you said earlier you would try to do.
I will. Maybe 2.
Dont sleep on Kim, I think he can develop into a very good player, THIS YEAR.
He will be much more comfortable this season, I expect him to play well. Play good defense, run the bases well, thats all we really need.
It’s time to give the kids a chance.
Of course, this is my opinion, but I think those of you who are expecting Hyeseong Kim to do any better than he did last year are thinking with your heart.
Let’s compare him to another Korean star: Ha-Seong Kim:
Ha-Seong Kim hit 19 to 30 HR in Korea six times. For his career, his OPS was .866 in Korea. Since coming to MLB, his MLB OPS (over 5 seasons) is .701. Ha-Seong Kim was regarded as a much better offensive player than Hyeseong Kim, who never hit more than 11 HR in Korea, and he did so only once in 6 seasons. He averaged 4-5 HR a season, and his OPS in Korea was .766. That’s 100 points less than Ha-Seong Kim!
I am willing to bet that his .699 OPS in his rookie year is the best of his career. There is no precedent (as Keith Law would say) for a Korean player to suddenly get better in MLB than he was in Korea. Ha-Seong Kim saw his OPS drop 150 points in MLB. Hyeseong Kim is a true “Punch & Judy” Hitter, and I believe it’s wishful thinking to think he will be different from every other Korean player in MLB. We have seen the best of Kim.
He’s a great defender and can stall bases, but a .280 BA with a .699 OPS is no good. OPS rules BA. Donovan would be a platoon at 2B with Rojas going against RHP, but RHP are about 75% of MLB so I am fine with it. Kim is a great Utilityman, but is he better than Ibanez? Or Kike? Or Rojas?
Give Kim and Freeland a chance to see what they can do till Edman comes back off the IL. The NL West is weak and the only matter is how many games we want to win it by. Spending prospect capital on Donavan is a mistake.
I am trying to win 120 games! 😉
St. Louis Demands: Cardinals President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom has stated the team will not move Donovan unless they are “blown away” by an offer. Market analysts suggest the price is currently at least two top-10 prospects from a given organization. FORGET ABOUT IT!!!!
I want to concentrate on winning 4 games….the last 4 of the year.
That’s why you have a double-digit mind.
Did you get that moniker from double-digit math?
I’m not in the Kim camp, per se. I am in favor of giving him an opp to see how he settles into hitting MLB pitching. In his case, not really caring at all about OPS….much more interested in on base percentage.
Already acknowledged excellent glove work and great speed. If he can bat in the 9 spot and get on base a high percentage, I wouldn’t care if he never hit a home run. Getting on base in front of the run producers, while putting pressure on the pitchers, helps the whole team in ways that don’t show up in the box score.
I don’t disagree that his OPS may never be hight. He does have other skills that can contribute to the team as it is built. I like his potential. He may bust, but I would want to give him a real opportunity. If he pans out, we’ve got a winner with the way this team is constructed.
“Clayton Kershaw is “nearing a deal” with NBC Sports to join the network’s MLB studio coverage as it launches a new media rights era beginning in 2026, Ryan Glasspiegel of Front Office Sports reported Wednesday. Though the precise scope of his role is not confirmed, both FOS and The Athletic have reported that Kershaw would likely appear on select events rather than on a full weekly schedule”.
I’m in a minority here. While I am sure the Dodgers are the class of the NL west, I also believe the giants, backs, and padres are all potential wildcard candidates. Of course the Rockies won’t be contenders for the foreseeable future, but the other 3 teams are going to be very competitive. It’s going to be a tough road for them to make the wildcard with the brewers, cubs, and Cincinnati battling in the central. The Phillies, Mets, and braves in the east. But in no way do I believe the west is weak. The giants are potentially one quality starter away from having a very good starting rotation. The padres have pitching, the backs will have a very good offense that will score runs in bunches. The Dodgers will win the west by 8+ games. But the 3 teams in the west won’t be a cakewalk.
Kim? I’m leaning toward Mark’s opinion of him. I love his speed and defense, his bat might be a bit below average, but that’s ok. He can be a valuable piece for the Dodgers. But if Donovan can be had? Absolutely!
Don’t agree. The National West is extremely weak!!!!!! We’ll see.
Two thoughts:
1) With a lock out probable and the owners likely looking to finally secure Bud Selig’s dream of a salary cap, it seems logical that a post salary cap environment would inflate the value of prospects. If this is correct AF would be loath to let go of prospects. I do not see him trading any of our high ceiling prospects for this reason.
2) I hope Kersh can pull it off. Sandy Koufax was the greatest pitcher of all time (don’t give me dead ball era Walter Johnson), but the poor guy was a deer in the headlights in front of a camera.
Kershaw will be an excellent on NBCj,just by judging from the many interviews he has done from the dugouts during games and on the MLB Network.. He has a warm personality and is very articulate and knowledgeable about the game.
Totally agree with you on CK. Apparently he would do studio work rather than being a color guy on a broadcast.
Whatever NBC winds up paying him, they’ll get more than their money’s worth.
Sandy Koufax was the greatest pitcher of all time .for 5 years.
With NBC getting the Sunday night baseball game, Bob Costas will be part of their team again. Not in a major role according to him. They have also approached Kershaw about working for them. Costas said in an interview on MLB.TV, that he believes Keith Hernandez, Mattingly, Garvey and Dale Murphy all belong in the Hall.
Former Dodgers Catcher Austin Barnes Signs With Mets on Minor League Deal
This deal is only for intel.on the Dodgers. Guy can’t hit or throw anymore.
It’s true. He’s cooked.
Well, maybe he can’t hit or throw and runs like he is carrying a piano on his back, but other than that, he’s a damn good player.
😉
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
The Dodgers signed RHP Ryder Ryan to a minor league deal, sources tell The Athletic. Brother of Dodgers RHP River Ryan. Will make $800K if he makes the majors.
“Ryan made his MLB debut with the Seattle Mariners in 2023, but only appeared in one game. He then made 15 appearances after being included on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Opening Day roster in 2024. Ryan has yet to return to the Major League level.
Pittsburgh re-signed Ryan to a Minor League deal last January, and he went on to spend the entire season with their Triple-A Indianapolis team. During that time the right-hander went 8-1 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 42 games (three starts).
Ryan’s pitch mix includes a fastball, sinker, slider and changeup. At the Major League level he’s primarily thrown a sinker-slider combo. It wasn’t until last year while in Triple-A that Ryan increased the usage of a changeup, though it still was a relatively low 6.8”.
I have seen him pitch in Indy and had no clue he was River’s Brother. Thanks, Mr. Obvious!
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitchers River Ryan and Gavin Stone aren’t expected to make L.A.’s Opening Day rotation, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya.
“They are expecting Gavin Stone and River Ryan back from injury,” Ardaya wrote. “Stone led the team in innings during their 2024 title season. Ryan, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, could be the top pitching prospect in baseball if he were completely healthy. Neither is projected to start the season in the rotation, not just because of workload but because the Dodgers still have six starters they like ahead of them right now.”
They know that somebody’s arms will fall off next year…
BTW, Ryder Ryan is 30. Could be a great story.