Enjoy it While You Can!

It was both surprising and not surprising to me that the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker. That they can make it work is a tribute to the true genius of Mark Walter and Andrew Friedman. Enjoy it while you can, because it will end soon. In the upcoming CBA and talks among owners, MLB will implement what we may call “The Dodger Restriction.” I cannot tell you for certain how it will be structured, but it will include the following:

  • A Salary Cap – While it may not be called that, it will effectively limit what the Dodgers can spend on players. This could result in a prolonged lockout.
  • More Revenue Sharing – You can hate this all you want, but the Dodgers possess the greatest buying power in MLB, even higher than the Yankees. Yes, some owners are cheapskates and penny pinchers, but the Dodgers may have 10 times their resources. The Dodgers and other strong teams in MLB will have to share revenue. Not fair? You can’t play and win without having other teams. It smacks of Socialism, but it has to happen.
  • Eliminate Deferred Payments – Shohei Ohtani’s payment deferral is the ultimate smart deal. I think MLB will insist that teams be fiscally responsible and require payouts in the season they are playing.

The baseball team owners are going to insist on an overhaul of the game’s economic system to include a salary cap. Signing Kyle Tucker is the icing on the cake. Player leadership has indicated it won’t even consider a capped system. Be prepared for a Lockout that could last the entire 2027 season and even longer.

It is somewhat embarrassing to me that the Dodgers can so flagrantly taunt other teams with their financial strength, but they are playing within the rules. However, the rules are about to be changed because of them. What’s done is done. As hard as it may be, I look for the Dodgers to win the 2026 World Series. Three in a row may be it, as I can see a scenario whereby there is no World Series in 2027.

Once the new CBA is implemented (by 2028), here is what the Dodgers will face:

  • Freddie Freeman will be gone.
  • Mookie Betts will be 35 and in decline at 2B.
  • Kyle Tucker will have a couple more years on his deal and be playing 1B or LF.
  • Will Smith will be 33 and will have to rest more.
  • Shohei Ohtani may be a freak, but he will be 33 in 2028 and may decline from the 1.000+ OPS he has put up the past three seasons.

The good news is that the Dodger Farm System is strong and should be producing prospects. This could be the lineup in 2028:

C- Smith/Rushing

1B – Tucker

2B – Betts

SS – Morales

3B – Wagner

LF – Quintero/DePaula

CF – Sirota

RF – Pages

DH – Ohtani

The farm is loaded, so the Dodgers may continue to be the envy of MLB, however, there will be major changes after next season. Bet on it!

This article has 68 Comments

  1. The player union will NEVER agree to a salary cap or the elimination of player salary deferrals. What I could see is higher penalties for going over total salary limits.

    1. Every sport effectively has a salary cap.

      They may not agree to it, but it will be forced down their throats.

      I can see a year’s lockout after which both sides agree to binding arbitration, and the arbitrator makes it so.

      1. I agree that a long lockout is very possible. That’s why let’s win the World Series again this year, because the future of baseball is so uncertain and enjoy the Ohtoni Era while we can.

          1. If there is a lockout, do the players get paid, are signing bonuses affected? what happens to the contract. are they extended?

          2. During a lockout, owners bar players from working, and no salary is paid for games or days that don’t happen.

            Most MLB signing bonuses:
            Are paid on a fixed date;
            Are not contingent on games being played; and
            Still get paid during a lockout.

            Contracts are NOT voided, canceled, or automatically extended.

      2. no chance a labor dispute does to arbitration, do you mean mediation?

        If the owners continue to refuse to open their books, I fail to see how the players should see this as a good faith negotiation

        Rosenthal touches on this for The athletic ($$$)
        https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6976696/2026/01/16/dodgers-kyle-tucker-lockout-mlb-labor/?source=user_shared_article

        The Dodgers not only outspend every team by a wide margin, but also outsmart and outperform them. In the current system, their success prevents them from picking high enough in the draft to access future stars like Paul Skenes, Bobby Witt Jr. and Tucker, who went fifth overall in 2015. Thus, the Dodgers are denied the best avenue to the most precious resource in the sport: young, controllable star talent. The only way for them to access such players is through trades and free agency. Now that they are awash in money thanks to Shohei Ohtani, they’re supposed to stop trying their hardest to get good players?

  2. The Phillies and J.T. Realmuto have an agreement in place to reunite on a new deal. It’s a $45MM guarantee over three years for the CAA Sports client, with incentives worth $5MM annually. Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the two sides were close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement was in place and provided specifics of the contract.

  3. If the owners lock the players out, it will be more disastrous for baseball than the 94-95 strike. Fans are not going to continue to put up with rising ticket prices and other expensive parts of the game. Hell, a hot dog at Dodger Stadium is over 7 bucks.

    1. $7 dogs are so unnecessary. At Camden Yards, dogs are $4, popcorn is 3 and soda refills are $4. Certain12oz beers are $5. Baltimore cares about families and makes it possible for a family of 4 to see a ballgame for $100 or less
      There’s no reason the Dodgers can’t do the same. They should be ashamed of the way they treat the fans.

        1. Not the point Matt. The point is that going to a game has gotten extremely expensive. Last time I went to Dodger Stadium, just the tickets for four of us were 140 dollars. Parking was 40 bucks. We went to a Quakes game, got box seats for 13 dollars each, parking was 5. Many people are priced out of attending a game. Especially older people on retirement. Oh, you can sit up there in general admission for 25 dollars, but the players look like ants. I spend around 100 for my MLB.TV since I am a veteran, and I can watch the game from the comfort of my living room. If I want to see major league baseball, I have to go to Denver, 125 miles away, fight the traffic, yeah, we have that here too, pay 30 bucks to park. The difference is, I can get seats in the left field bleachers at Coors for under 20 bucks.

        2. Actually I enjoy $4 dogs and $20 seats vs LAs cheapest seat at $150 since I live on the right coast in Florida and the northeast in the summer. With NYC Baltimore and Philly within 1.5 miles I get to watch the Blue play in enemy territory with about 49%of the stadiums wearing Dodger blue. In Daytona, I go to Miami and Tampa where the tickets are cheap and plentiful even for the Dodgers games and are heavily attended by the faithful blue

          A Giants Dodgers game in 2026 is $150 for a pavilion seat. Despite the great team we put together, not many SoCals can afford to go to a game. The $7 Dogs are really not the issue, the $600 seats for a family of 4 certainly is in LA.
          My first game was at Ebbets Field the last year the dodgers were in Brooklyn and have been a Dodger fan ever since. Thanks for ty he comments

        1. A very expensive treat if you ask me. And not getting any cheaper. I will guarantee you there are fans, avid fans who cannot afford to attend games.

        2. A very expensive treat if you ask me. And not getting any cheaper. I will guarantee you there are fans, avid fans who cannot afford to attend games.

          1. There are always, ALWAYS, going to be fans who cannot attend games. Due to distance, cost, schedules.

            The team has no obligation to act as a public utility.

    2. You can bring whatever food you want in to Dodger stadium. I saw guys bringing in full Pizza boxes, Subs, etc….if folks want to buy $7 dogs thats fine you always have a choice. If some of that money goes to a winning product on the field, fine with me….

  4. I want to bump Rata’s question above..

    “If there is a lockout, do the players get paid, are signing bonuses affected? what happens to the contract. are they extended?”

    1. No, Major League Baseball (MLB) players are not paid their base salaries during a strike or work stoppage, as they only receive paychecks during the regular season.

        1. I believe players on the 40 man rosters cannot play in minor league games because they belong to the MLB Union. All other other players can be paid from their affiliate minor league teams when their season starts.

      1. During an MLB work stoppage (strike or lockout), players still receive bonus payments, deferred compensation, and other money that was earned or vested prior to the work stoppage. However, they do not receive their regular season salaries, as players are typically only paid during the regular season.

  5. Mark, you made the following statement above with regard to a salary floor:
    “The Top Team Owners will insist.”

    I disagree. The top teams (Dodgers, Yanks, Mets, etc.) would be more than happy to let the A’s of the world spend very little since that would just make them less competitive.

    It’s the Player’s Union who would insist on a salary floor.

    For the good of the game, both Tony Clark and Manfred should resign at the end of this season so that two new people who haven’t built up such animosity can take charge of the negotiations.

    1. They would be happy in that case if there was a gop cap but if they have to share more revenue they will want to make sure the other teams are spending not pocketing the money.

      1. Everybody talks about how much money the Dodgers spend, but very little is publicized about how much money the small market teams get from the big boys in revenue sharing and then stuff in their pockets rather than improving their own teams.

  6. Just to be clear, it is possible that if there is a lockout in 2027 and Tucker exercises his option to opt out, Tucker will only be with the Dodgers for one year (2026.)

  7. Sooooo….. Minor leagues still play? If I were the owners, I would have my AAA team play in every major league ballpark for a 162 game season plus playoffs.

  8. I read an interesting article about how right now we can well afford Tucker. Payroll down from 416 to 413 mil because……

    Michael Conforto ($17 million), Kirby Yates ($13 million), Chris Taylor ($13 million), Clayton Kershaw ($7.5 million), Kiké Hernández ($6.5 million), Michael Kopech ($5.2 million), Evan Phillips ($6.1 million), Tony Gonsolin ($5.4 million) and Austin Barnes ($3.5 million) made a combined $77.2 million last year and are now off the team via free agency, trades, non-tenders or retirement.

    Thought it was an interesting take.

    1. I’m cool with it. Always be upgrading. It’s doubly hard for us with our exhausted core. They have been going all out for a while. Paid off though.

    2. Interesting….
      I hope Gonsolin has more in the tank. Maybe the Halos will give him a shot.

  9. Teo hitting 6th. max hitting 7th. Pages hitting 8th. That’s pretty impressive! Kim, Edman, Rojas, alternating in the 9th spot. That’s impressive! Listening to the mlb network, several guys are saying that what the Dodgers did isn’t bad for baseball. Nobody’s really saying much about Bichette’s contract. Supposedly he turned down the Phillies offer of 7 years for around 240 million. Every sport needs a villain. We dodgers fans waited 32 years for another World Series title. So why apologize for the success that they have had since 2020? If George Steinbrenner was alive the Yankees would be spending just as the Dodgers are.

    The Mets plan on using Bichette at 3rd base. Can’t wait to see how he performs there. The plan for their team was to improve their infield defense. Not sure they did if that’s their plan for 3rd. After losing out on Tucker, sure seems like a panic move to me.

    Gavin lux to the rays? I guess maybe he gets another shot at second base. Hope he does a good job there.

    Is there any chance kike gets back before June? Maybe one of young outfielders gets a chance till then if Edman isn’t ready? Which one would it be?

    1. I expect Kike to return when the timing best suits the Dodgers.
      The OF now seems set, with Call as the 4th OF and both Edman and Kim able to help out. If Siani has a strong spring, perhaps he’ll be considered, but he’s likely headed for OKC. Ryan Ward, at 27, needs to be traded (probably for a prospect) to a small-market team that can use power. Ward sticks around, I think, only if the Dodgers decide to deal Teo–but why do that?
      The top four OF prospects aren’t really expected until the ’27 season. Even if they play great this season, they are likely blocked–though an injury could provide an opportunity. Tibbs seems closest to The Show as he has already succeeded in AA ball and is a bit older than the more hyped prospects.
      Perhaps Rushing can get some starts in left to help him get more ABs. Perhaps he could get some starts at 1B too to give Freddie’s aging bones some rest.
      Miggy should be Max’s platoon partner. I’m hoping that Kim gets plenty of runway at 2B–something he was denied in ’25. If he falters, both Edman and Miggy will be there. Plus the new guy whose name I forget. And, once again, Freeland should be the first infielder up from OKC.
      Considering the abundance of prospects who may never wear Dodger blue, as well as the front office’s willingness to spend megabucks on top talent…. when will the Dodgers add Tarik Skubal?

      1. One of the two, Siani or Ward, is likely to be DFAd when Tucker’s signing is official. They won’t keep both. Dodgers signed Nick Robertson to a minor league deal.

        1. My guess is Siani gets DFA and eventually Ward gets traded in a package for a draft pick.

  10. Baseball is amazingly healthy. Nothing wrong with the game. Yes, the Dodgers spend money and win. They make lots of money and they put a great deal of it back into the team and the stadium. Good for the game. MLB needs an evil empire to compete against. The Yankees served that purpose for decades.

    The players aren’t going to accept a salary cap. Why should they? A strike would cripple the game, impact revenue streams and disrupt the growing popularity of baseball. The World Series was a huge success, ratings up by 20 percent, game seven drawing 51 million viewers, Shohei Ohtani is the most popular sports star in the world and the game has never been healthier financially.

    It’s not like the Dodgers blew away the league. Milwaukee won more games. The World Series went seven games and into extra innings. Great series. People are still talking about it.

    Lots of teams spend money. No guarantees. The reason the Dodgers win is pretty simple. The organization is run by incredibly smart people.

    Eventually, the Dodgers will suffer a decline. It’s inevitable. Maybe they won’t be the “Beast” they are now, but my guess they’ll still be pretty good. Many other teams will find something to complain about. Whining and pointing fingers is the real national pastime.

  11. As I sit here this morning reading the hate and anger in other fans concerning the Dodgers, I wonder why people don’t mind the success the Astros and the players who cheated their way to the 2017 World Series championship. The Dodgers haven’t broken any rules. Haven’t cheated anyone they played in winning the World Series 3 of the last 6 years. Haven’t had anyone suspended for peds. Haven’t had anybody arrested. Haven’t had their manager suspended or fired. Yet George Springer is beloved I Toronto. Altuve is a treasure in Houston.( not surprising). Bregman was coveted by many teams and is considered a “leader “ on any team that he’s on. Alex Cora is considered a great manager and leader of men. AJ Hinch is hailed as a genuis. They all cheated the game. They all are very highly respected and paid. But yet the Dodgers are evil. They spend money. The owners reinvest the profits. Players want to play in LA. Do you honestly believe any of those I mentioned wouldn’t jump at the chance to play for the Dodgers? But yet the Dodgers are the bad guys. That’s fine. As Mark stated earlier, baseball will probably change the rules on deferred payments. Even though it’s been going on for years. It does take just a little joy out of the celebrations. , but hell I can live with that. It’s better than waiting 32 years for another championship!

    1. The Dodgers are the Evil Empire on the West Coast and I love it. You can hate us but try to beat us is another story.

  12. The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) Average Annual Value (AAV) for Kyle Tucker’s contract is $57.1 million. Due to their high payroll, the Dodgers are subject to a 110% luxury tax penalty, making the total actual cost of the contract to the team approximately $119.9 million per year in the 2026 season.

    Contract and Tax Details
    Contract Value $240 million over four years
    CBT AAV $57.1 million (after deferrals)
    Luxury Tax Rate 110% (highest tier offender)
    Total Annual Cost ~$119.9 million (AAV + tax)

    The Dodgers were already significantly above the highest luxury tax threshold for the 2026 season before the signing, triggering the maximum 110% penalty on any additional spending. This effectively doubles the cost of Tucker’s AAV for the team.

  13. Blue Jays Reportedly Offered 10-Year, $350MM Deal To Kyle Tucker

    “Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240MM contract with the Dodgers ended an intriguing trip through free agency for the outfielder, as Tucker opted for a shorter-term deal with an extremely high average annual value and some built-in flexibility (opt-outs after the 2027 and 2028 seasons) over a longer-term pact. Multiple reports suggested that Tucker’s only true long-term offer on the table came from the Blue Jays, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the terms of Toronto’s offer were $350MM over ten years”.

      1. Yep.
        It’s been suggested that Tucker isn’t as passionate about baseball as some of his peers. If so, a ten-year commitment might be less appealing than what the Dodgers offered.
        The Big Fat Check style of roster building still bothers me, though. Trades are inherently more interesting and fun.
        So who should be in the package for Skubal?

  14. I’m a uniform numbers guy. So what number will Tucker wear ? Doc wears his number 30. When will Rushing get a lower number than 68 ?

    1. I would think he will get a lower number. Barnes’ 15 is available. I predict they give Tucker 27. Kemp’s old number.

    2. Tucker first wore number 3 with the Astros, and after a couple of years switched to 30 which he also wore with the Cubs.

      Since Doc has number 30 and Diaz has already claimed number 3, I say Tucker should wear number 33.

  15. “Teoscar Hernandez’s name surfaced in trade rumors earlier this winter, and now that Kyle Tucker is joining the Los Angeles outfield, it created some natural speculation that the Dodgers could clear room by moving Hernandez elsewhere. Even with Tucker in the fold, however, it is more likely than not that Hernandez will still be a Dodger on Opening Day, according to both The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez”.

  16. From MLBTR:

    The Dodgers’ plan is likely to move Hernandez over to left field, with Tucker taking his customary right field position. Andy Pages and Tommy Edman would be the primary center field options with Alex Call in a reserve outfield role, and Edman is also perhaps the top option within an unsettled second base mix that also includes Miguel Rojas, Hyeseong Kim, Alex Freeland, and new acquisition Andy Ibanez. A reunion with Enrique Hernandez at some point this offseason also can’t be ruled out.

  17. Hey if Miggy doesn’t make that throw in the bottom of the ninth we lose the game and every one else happy. ‘You can’t buy the World Series’. So with all that spending we won by ‘an inch’. Its not like we won 120 games and swept every game by score of 7-0!!!
    So let the haters hate.

    1. Yep. Baseball has a way of evenin things out…..
      I fondly recall Bob Costas describing how historically weak the Dodgers lineup was in the ’88 WS. I think Franklin Stubbs was batting cleanup.
      Then Gibson hit the GOAT HR and the underDodgers beat the mighty Caneco-McGwire A’s in five games.

  18. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal on Saturday, despite initial chatter around trading Teoscar Hernandez, who has two years left on his contract, the Dodgers are instead looking to move experienced minor leaguer Ryan Ward or starter Bobby Miller.

    “Fresh off their stunning signing of free-agent right fielder Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers are expected to keep Teoscar Hernández and move him to left field,” he wrote. “As reported previously, Hernández’s name has surfaced in trade conversations.

    “The Dodgers, however, are more likely to explore deals for outfielder Ryan Ward, a career minor leaguer who last season was MVP of the Pacific Coast League at 27, or right-hander Bobby Miller, who has been a disappointment.”

      1. I’d be happy if they could get one draft pick back and I’d even throw in Landon Knack.

  19. A couple of things guys, first, another forum for Dodger fans is shutting down. ThinkbluePC is signing off after10 years. I have become friends with Dennis, who has run the site for 10 years. We have exchanged baseball cards. He lives outside of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania. Good site, with some excellent articles. His co-writer is a young lady, Andy Chapman. I enjoyed both of their stories. Dennis began writing years ago for Bleacher Report. He is leaving due to work commitments. Second, according to MLB insider, Hector Gomez, the Dodgers are making a serious push to obtain Brewers Ace, Freddy Peralta. According to Gomez, the talks have become increasingly intense.

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