Eric Karros made a compelling appearance on MLB Radio today, where he lauded the managerial work of Dave Roberts this season. He specifically addressed the wave of fan criticism Roberts faced after the Dodgers gave up 12 runs in the previous game, with many arguing that Roberts should have pulled Flaherty or Honeywell sooner. Karros, however, emphasized the strategy behind minimizing the number of looks opposing teams get at relievers, explaining, “If Doc had gone to the bullpen earlier, they might have lost anyway—and then they’d be in even worse shape for Game 6, with overworked pitchers and the Mets having more chances to face them.”
Karros pointed out that only Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor saw a Dodgers reliever more than once, a sharp contrast to the Indians, who overused Clase—arguably the best reliever in baseball—across multiple games, ultimately paying the price. He was quick to note that the decision wasn’t Roberts’ alone but likely a consensus from the Dodgers’ Braintrust. The Dunning-Kruger effect that seems to plague some fans.
In case you are unaware, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence. As Karros explained, many fans believe they know better than Roberts, despite lacking the depth of understanding necessary for managing a ballclub at that level. The phenomenon was named after psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, whose 1999 study revealed that people with the least ability often have the most confidence in their perceived expertise.
It’s not unlike how some students, who fail an exam, genuinely believe they deserved higher marks—they simply lack the awareness to recognize the flaws in their performance. Karros sees a parallel in baseball fans, who after picking up bits of knowledge, become convinced they’re savvier than the professionals calling the shots from the dugout. All I see is the Dunning-Kruger effect in full swing!
Questions to be Answered
A lot can happen between and Friday, and I have some questions about what could or could not happen:
- Will Freddie Freeman be active, and will he play? If he does, will it be at a high level? The Dodgers can win without Freddie and they just did, but if healthy, he is a force that the Yankees can’t match.
- The same questions about Gavin Lux. Lux and CT3 have both been hot since August 1st.
- Will Alex Vesia make the 26-man Roster? That would be HUGE.
- Same question about the Bazooka. Oh, Yeah!
- Is it possible that Shohei Ohtani could throw a couple or three innings in the World Series? Not likely, but possible!
- What about Tony Gonsolin? He could takeKnack’s place.
- What about Miggy Ro? They just need him in the dugout… not on the field.
- Will Tommy Edman change his name to Tommy Baseball? Why not?
- Could Will Smith be re-juvenated with five days rest? He may be banged up… it can’t hurt!
- Watch this video, and you will understand why Max Muncy is the heart and soul of the Dodgers.
11. The Dodgers Bullpen:
This is only the 3rd time in the past 30 years that the #1 and #2 team in Wins have played for the World Championship. Not only does the best team not always win… the best team (in terms of wins) seldom wins! That will change this year!
Update: Reliever Usage in the Post-Season
It used to be that (back in the day), starters were the best five pitchers, and relievers were the guys who couldn’t cut it. Over time, relievers have evolved until they are a whole different species. Still, they may only have a couple of pitches, which, in some ways, makes them inferior to starters. Mike Petriello wrote a great piece on Should managers fear ‘reliever familiarity effect’ in World Series? It’s a very worthy read!
I laughed to myself on this article, which by the way is great!
Many kudos for your time and effort to research this stuff, then actually write the article – seriously, you will not get this type of info on “ANY” other baseball blog.
I, and many others are very appreciative.
Question – was Flaherty just under the weather or hurt? If hurt, that is a big deal!
Observation – I think Casparius has what it takes to perform on the big stage. I like his stuff and demeanor.
On Edman – I think he has another year left on his contract. He has earned the right to play full-time. So, if the Dodgers sign Adames, and Mookie actually goes to 2nd or not (I still think Lux’s is in play for the Dodgers next year), where does he play?
CF
Agree and Flaherty was allegedly battling a bug for a few days.
Getting Vesia back would be great… but isn’t that a long shot?
As for Gonsolin, he hasn’t pitched in a game for a looong time. Knack got knocked around last time out–but so did Flaherty. Putting Gonsolin in a WS game after such a long layoff seems too risky.
I agree that Miggy isn’t necessary… unless Edman gets hurt. Not to be overly pessimistic, but Rojas may still prove vital to the Dodgers’ chances. Certainly hope Freddie is fully healthy.
Against Gerrit Cole and other righties…
Player Postseason OPS
Shohei DH .934
Mookie RF 1.063
Freddie 1B .461
Max 3B 1.013
Teo LF .690
Edman SS .810
Smith C .605
Kike CF .863
Lux 2B .592
Against lefties, bench Lux and move Kike to 2B and put Pages in CF. Pages’ postseason OPS is .776.
Have Teo bat 4th and Max 5th, followed by Pages.
Getting Vesia back would be great… but isn’t that a long shot?
As for Gonsolin, he hasn’t pitched in a game for a looong time. Knack got knocked around last time out–but so did Flaherty. Putting Gonsolin in a WS game after such a long layoff seems too risky.
I agree that Miggy isn’t necessary… unless Edman gets hurt. Not to be overly pessimistic, but Rojas may still prove vital to the Dodgers’ chances. Certainly hope Freddie is fully healthy.
Against Gerrit Cole and other righties…
Player postseason OPS
Shohei DH .934
Mookie RF 1.063
Freddie 1B .461
Max 3B 1.013
Teo LF .690
Edman SS .810
Smith C .605
Kike CF .863
Lux 2B .592
Against lefties, bench Lux and move Kike to 2B and put Pages in CF. Pages’ postseason OPS is .776.
Have Teo bat 4th and Max 5th, followed by Pages.
You can say that again! 😉
Yes, Edman is under contract next season.
The Dodgers’ brass have coveted him for years. He’ll probably get a nice contract to stick around for a few more years.
As for Lux, I think the big question is whether Mookie will be moved to 2B full-time. If so, Lux should be dealt.
If Mookie moves to 2B, perhaps Pages would take over RF. I’d take his potential over Lux’s.
I would bet that Mookie will be the Dodgers Opening Day 2B next year.
I hope you’re correcting that. Nothing against Lux, but I think we could be a better team with Mookie at second.
I remember a few years ago when Max used to give short one word or one sentence answers on post game interviews. Now he makes speeches. A real difference in attitude. He’s becoming a team spokesman and one of the major voices of the team.
I always thought he had more of a football mentality. I think bringing that to the post season this year has been a big help.
Totally agree on Max’s value but as for last night’s interviews? He’d had many beers almost immediately in the celebration so I think it’s fair to say he was way more verbose than he usually is.
drunj
Mark, I LIKE the column today. (Ssshhh. I like most of them.)
I agree with all 10 answers especially #9. It is impossible Will is not beat to crap. Imagine all the foul balls off his legs, hands, off his mask (borderline concussed almost daily, ugh!) and frankly a few to his nuts too! EEK. He must be running on sheer guts through the overall soreness and exhaustion. Nearly all players are exhausted by the end of the season.
#7 – Rojas is a SUPERIOR defensive shortstop and always has been but he was traded away originally for a lack of offense. He has been batting over his head this season compared to his career numbers. Now? He’s 35 and truly injured and only a slight difference in range is the diff between a good and an ALL Star shortstop. I wish it weren’t true but it is. His injury affects his defensive range as does Freddie’s. Freddie will definitely be on the roster. Not as sure about Rojas.
Shawn Murphy – I agree with your comments except on Edman’s “…earned the right to play full time”. If he has then SURELY Kiké has and he thought so too. THat’s why he left us for the Red Sox where he clearly did not merit being an everyday player. Neither are the same player in the regular season…but it AIN’T the regular season now and both need to play!
We don’t need Rojas.
Hey Dan, wasn’t there a time in the past when you had a beef with me or do I have you mixed up with someone else?
I like Casparius a lot.
Dunning-Krueger effect. Wow! Thought provoking piece Mark, as usual.
I’m basking in the moment. I recall the drought during the brief Fox tenure and the painful experience during the McCourt years.
As fans, we sometimes underestimate the rarity of the moment and fail to appreciate what is like to cheer for one of the more consistent and competitive organizations in all of sports.
Go Dodgers!
All in Mark, been battling these armchair managers all year, calling for Roberts head, having no clue what goes on behind the scenes managing a big league ball club. Hearing alot of baseball people weighing in on Doc, they are saying, and I 100 percent agree that this year is probably his best year managing , with all the Shoei distractions, the injuries the whole year, limping into the playoffs with almost zero starting pitching, yet pulling off two huge bullpen games to get past the Madres and Mets. The man is by no means perfect , but his players love him, and win or lose against the Yankees , he ain’t going nowhere,
I will offer my congratulations to the LA Dodgers. Well done! But there is a lot more work to be done if they are to win the ultimate prize.
I thought everybody was comfortable with losing game 5. It didn’t have an urgent feel and it’d made game 6 a taller feat. I don’t like seeing Dodgers lose any games but at the cost of making game 6 more difficult the game 5 loss didn’t hurt. I want the big prize and the road to get there is the ability to take a punch and come back with a stronger punch. Ali let Forman win every round untill he knocked Forman out. Same strategy.
I guess I’m a lone voice, expressing my disagreement with the decision not to yank Flaherty in the second inning of game 5;when he was getting his brains beat in. That was a winnable game, and anytime you can put the dagger in the heart I think you should do it. I agree the odds were good that we would prevail in game 6, but why prolong it? The bullpen would have a day off after Game 5, and has the great depth that is our strength. I understand Doc’s strategy, and he was obviously committed to it.
His management has been outstanding.
Update above
I thinbk Freddie gets to start game 1 and then will see how he is doing. Hope Miggy not on the roster.
I haven’t posted much recently but I wanted to jump in today re our Manager. I used to have very spirited discussions with B&P about Doc. I am a businessman and have always had the philosophy that measurement of personnel should be based on results.
I could never get through on the point that Dave Robert’s record is probably the most successful of any Manager in MLB history. That fact is undeniable and that record has continued for a couple of years beyond my posts with B&P.
People kept using the argument that anyone could have been successful with the players he had. I argued that the most successful Managers (Sparky Anderson, Bobby Cox, Lasorda, and others) also had great players and a their W/L records could not come close to Doc’s. Unfortunately all this fell on deaf ears.
Fortunately this year happened and regardless of the WS outcome, Doc may be finally get his just due, and I am thankful for that.
I live in Phoenix and my son and I are going to game 2. We are sitting in the loge, right behind 1st base. Can’t wait!!!!!!!!!!!
AWESOME. How much were tix if you dont mind me asking.
Im planning to go to Game 6 if its gets that far. Prices ridiculously high…
They were $2K each. The lowest price was $1,200 for the pavilion or upper deck. I am getting to the age where chances are dwindling so I did it.
I love it. And yes I agree, I know its a lot but its the moments that will be cherished.
Happy for ya! Root hard for the Blue Crew
Heard someone on tv the other day say ohtani would be an amazing left fielder. (can’t remember who it was). would the dodgers ever consider this? imagine Ohtani in left , Edman in center, and Mookie in right! now i know it’s premature thinking , but what an outfield! Adames at ss, and Gavin gets one last shot at the every day second baseman. wow! ok back to reality. this is going to be a tough series. i believe the dodgers will win, BUT, the pitching staff will need to slow the big 3 down. if they can slow judge, stanton, and soto , they win . Would be big to get Vesia back fot this series to have for soto. hopefully you’re right about Flaherty Mark! Don’t know how we win without a 3rd starter. Gonsolin? not sure he helps even if he were added to the roster. Knack? No way! i believe in the future he’s a #5 at best. i would trust Casparius before Knack. Win this series, Doc can fill out his own contract! He’s earned it!
Yamamoto, Bulldog junior, and Casparias!
I agree about Doc. Great job. But if he made all the same decisions and everything went sideways because the players didn’t perform. Morons would be screaming for his head.
Thanks for the great read. I really think the Dane Dunning Chad Kruger effect is more pervasive than we think.
Book em
Are injured Freddie and Muncy better than Muncy and Kike? I thought #5 looked to be limping when the players came out on the field when they clinched.
First and foremost, the Dunning-Kruger effect is awesome. I will probably use it fifty times before the end of the year, thanks Mark.
Second, when one suffers from a sprained ankle or whatever, they will feel better as time goes on only to have it flare up with continuous use. My guess is Freddie starts the series and is the same great player. As the series continues he may struggle with his ankle. We all know that Freddie is a dog and will be out there. Roberts has to decide if Freddie’s ankle is holding up. If not he needs to sit him. I believe we all understand that the Dodgers are a much better team with Freddie and an okay ankle on the field.
When I was 29 years old, I suffered a severe ankle sprain (left ankle). I am RH and that was the foot I jumped off of last. I could never dunk again, which cost me an NBA Career. OK, that’s a lie… I could have played in the NBA if I had a lot more TALENT!
When I was 29 I could almost touch the net.
I believe that right now Walker Buehler is a better pitcher than Jack Flaherty. If it were up to me My starting rotation would be Yamamoto, Buehler and Flaherty.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this Dodgers team looks like the 2015 world series champions, the Kansas City Royals, and just like them the Dodgers will be champions.
They share:
1 A good offense (the Dodgers are better)
2 A good defense in all positions (Teo is the only one a little below average)
3 A great bullpen, they had Holland, Herrera, Davis, Madson, etc., the Dodgers already know what they have and if they get Vesia and Gatraterol back OMG what that bullpen will be.
4 A rotation of starting pitchers is “suspicious” in the case of the Dodgers due to injuries. I also think that Yamamoto and Buehler will raise their level simply because they are getting further away from their injuries and the rust is less and less.
This team is great, it was the best by far and that despite so many fallen soldiers they are still the best that speaks to the quality and magnitude of this team. I am convinced that if these Dodgers had stayed healthy they would have won more than 110 games.
I think that this may have been Roberts’ best season as a manager. Given all of the injuries and all of the expectations, Roberts held everything together, even when they started slumping, to come on like gangbusters by the end of the year.
Special kudos to the front office. Edman, Flaherty, and Kopech. No team did better at the deadline.
To me, the difference in the upcoming Series will be the Dodgers’ bullpen. Both teams have powerful patient lineups and both teams’ starting pitching is underwhelming. The Dodgers’ big advantage is in the ‘pen. It will be a close Series but I think that the Dodgers will win.
Rick,
It warms my heart that you are positive. While not down with all the details, I have known you (at least on this blog) for many years, and now, I know some of what you have been through. I am proud you still feel like it is home. Godspeed!
I’ve said for many years that I’m somewhat ambivalent regarding all the arguing over Doc. He does his job as he was hired to do. This ownership group had no interest in hiring an “old school” manager who made decisions from the gut and was unwilling to adapt to new strategies. Those managers died right along with the idea that getting 40 stolen bases was a good thing when you get caught nearly half the time.
Had the Dodgers lost this series Doc would have been burned in effigy by many fans for game 5. I agree 100% with Mark. That was an organizational decision. With that pitching staff on the border of being gassed, a calculated risk had to be taken. Up 3 to 1, you accept a potential loss so you have reasonably live arms for game 6/7. It was the right decision. Either way. Fortunately, game 6 was all that was needed. Had we lost the series? I could only imagine the calls for Doc’s summary execution. Despite it not being his call alone.
Where I do give Doc credit this year is in the different attitude in the clubhouse. Dodgers lost some pretty tough games against the Padres and the Mets. But they came back the next game with a fire in the belly I had not seen in the last two years. I think that is the one thing that “organization” can’t do. That’s on Doc. And I see a big difference this year.
I also give credit to Ohtani. Not because he’s mashed (he’s underperformed so far in the playoffs) but because his presence at the top of the lineup changes things. I don’t have a very good argument for having him lead off other than psychological. His presence hitting ahead of Mookie and the middle of the lineup takes a mental toll on pitchers. They focus a lot of energy on the 500lb gorilla. Probably not enough on the 400lb gorilla batting right behind him. And who knew that Tommy Baseball is a 800lb gorilla in the playoffs? The guy has alligator blood!
This will be a fun series. Logically I’m glad the Dodgers get this rest. Good for our arms and for our position players who are banged up. That said, I have to wait until Friday!!! Arg.
Our fate in this series hinges on our starting pitching. We need 5 innings with 3 or less runs given up to stay in each game. Yankees starting pitching is much better than the Mets., so I wouldn’t expect to pile up runs in the early innings. If we can get through 5 innings tied or ahead we will have a good shot to win the game. I think this will be how our rotation stacks up.
Flaherty – Game 1
Yamamoto- Game 2
Buehler – Game 3
Bullpen – Game 4
Flaherty – Game 5 – 4 days rest
Yamamoto – Game 6 – 5 days rest
Buehler – Game 7 – 4 days rest
Just like games 2 & 5 against the Mets any game we get behind early by 4 or greater runs we won’t chase with our top relievers.
Are they throwing Cole 1, 4, 7?
Looks like Jack is starting game 1. Very sound strategy. Should allow them to pitch Striker , Yoshi and Jack 2 times each. If they want to. With game 4 a bullpen game. Man if they get Bazooka and Vesia back. Look out! Could Freddie have a Gibson moment! It’s a perfect storm ending in a storybook finish. I wish Vin was calling the WS.
Book em
Whoops. What you said Vinny.
Book em
Damn, Fernando passed away tonight , totally stunned.
I haven’t posted here in a long time. Just wanted to say condolences to all Dodgers fans. For those of us who experienced Fernandomania it was a special special time.
My parents took a family vacation to California from Iowa when I was 16. I was told that we were going to a Dodgers game. One Dodgers game wasn’t going to cut it for me. I could care less about the rest of California. I wanted to spend as much time at Dodger Stadium as possible and see Fernando pitch. My Mom dropped me off for two additional games by myself and found a way to pick me up. I saw Fernando beat the Braves.
Years later a retired California Highway Patrolman took a liking to my young son and I as we left a spring training game. Turns out he was a guest of Fernando’s. He promised that he would get us in the suites for the next spring training game and meet Fernando. Lou lived up to his word. Next game we got to meet Fernando and let him know that he meant a lot to baseball fans in Iowa too. Fernando was as nice as could be. I was like a little kid getting to meet one of my heroes.
I’m sure I’m not the only Dodgers fan to shed tears tonight. My condolences to all of us fans.
Thanks, Hawkeye. I went to bed early last night and got up to the news.
BTW, the Colts still suck! 😉