Can the Padres Slay a Dodger Blue Fire-Breathing Dragon?

The late Padres owner Peter Seidler proclaimed the Dodgers as, “That dragon up the freeway we’re trying to slay.” They have tried, and they have landed a few blows, but this “Fire-Breathing Dodger Blue Flame Breathing Dragon” is going to go “scorched earth” on the Clowns, er Padres!

Starting on Saturday, the Padres will play the Dodgers a “best of five” series. The first two games are in LA, the next two are in San Diego, and if a 5th game is necessary, it will be back in LA. It’s one game at a time, and Game One will feature Dylan Cease vs. Yoshinobou Yamamoto. Jack Flaherty was scheduled to go on Saturday but is now moved back to Sunday, where I am sure an extra day of rest will be helpful to him.

The Bullpen

For the Dodgers, this series and all of the playoffs, for that matter, hinge upon the Dodger’s Bullpen. Some claim that the Padres have a bullpen full of closers as if somehow that should scare the Dodgers. The Padres bullpen ERA was #11 in all of baseball, while the Dodgers were #3. Let’s look at the likely Bullpen Suspects:

In my opinion, the Dodgers have the best and most experienced bullpen. But the Wild Card here is Joe Kelly, who has been terrible most of the year. The Dodgers signed him just for this Big Stage, where he had performed before, but that is up to him. He seems destined to be the Goat or the Hero. This is where his legend will be made or lost! If I had to pick one bullpen, it would be the Dodgers… especially if Evan Phillips can reclaim some of his mojo. I have a feeling he will change his pitch sequencing in the playoffs. Also, the Dodgers could add Henriquez to the playoff roster and only carry three starters in this round.

Starting Pitching

I do not believe you will see any of the starters for either team pitch more than five innings. I would be shocked if that happened, as both teams have deep bullpens. I think that in this series, you will see Yamamoto, Flaherty, Buehler… and maybe Knack with an opener. There’s no use in discussing why these are the starters now. This is what the Dodgers have to deal with, and I believe they will. Yamamoto, Flaherty, Buehler, and Knack (after an opener).

Defense

This is an area that many are overlooking. Not me! Let’s look at it:

Catcher – Will Smith is better defensively than Higashioka, who is 34 years old and has little MLB experience.

1B – Freddie Freeman is dramatically better than Donovan Solano or Luis Arraez. Period. End of story!

2B – Lux or Taylor is better than Jake Cronenworth. Maybe not by a huge margin… but better!

SS – Xander Bogaerts is a joke defensively compared to Miguel Rojas (if healthy) or Tommy Edman.

3B – Manny Machado is generally very good but has lost a little range as he nears age 33. He’s better than Max Muncy, but Muncy is a baller. Still, this is a position where the Padres are better defensively.

LF – Teoscar is not a Gold Glove LF’er but he is better than Profar.

CF – This is a close to a push, but if Edman plays CF, he is incrementally better. Jackson Merrill is a Rookie CF’er who will get better with experience, but I take Edman now.

RF – Mookie!

It should be clear that the Padre’s defense, minus Ha-Seong Kim, is not even in the same league as the Dodger’s defense. Defense wins in lots of ways, and with Kike, Barnes, CT3, and maybe Kevin Kermaier on the bench, this group is very solid, if not spectacular, defensively. Defense and pitching help win championships!

The Hitters

The Dodgers have scored more runs than any of the teams left in the playoffs. Eight hundred sixty-two to be precise. That is an average of 5.2 Runs per game. They have given up 686 runs (a 4.2 average). The Padres have scored 760 runs. That’s an average of 4.7 runs per game while giving up 669 (4.1 runs per game). The Dodger’s run differential is +1 run a game, while the Padres are +0.5 runs a game. The advantage is to the Dodgers.

Many sites compare the hitters, position by position… what does that really tell you? It’s absolutely useless, in my opinion. Let’s look at the batting orders. However, before we do that, I want to state that I do not like the Padres, not just because they are the Dodgers’ foes, but because they do have some real knuckleheads on the team, starting with Fernado Tatis, Jr. He is very talented, but he is of flawed character (my opinion). There’s no need to go into it all, but that character sometimes raises its ugly face. Manny Machado is of the same ilk. They are both very talented and team leaders, but they are sometimes lacking character. Jurickson Profar (who is finally having a good season) is also in that category. Three Knuckleheads!

Mookie Betts, like Freddie Freeman, still has a bad taste in his mouth about 2023 and the Dodgers’ early exit from the playoffs. Shohei and Teoscar have never been here before, and Max Muncy and Will Smith are experienced vets with slow pulses. Jackson Merrill is dangerous and will likely be a perennial All-Star, but he is a rookie. One thing I like to do when comparing teams’ hitting is to add up the OPS. The higher the combined OPS, the better the offensive production.

Padres Combined OPS – 6.939

Dodgers Combined OPS – 7.366

The Dodgers have a clearly better offense… especially the first five. The Padres have slightly better pitching… especially starting pitching, but here’s a big caveat: The Padre Starters are RH: This plays right into the Dodgers strength: LH Hitters who mash RH Pitchers. Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, and Lux are all exceptional against RHP. Mookie and Teo are good against RHP. Will Smith has had his struggles against RHP, but is opportunistic. Miggy RO had reverse splits against RHP, hitting almost .300, so the fact that the Padres have a RH rotation plays right (pun intended) into the Dodgers hand.

Conclusion

The Dodgers have a better offense, defense, and bullpen (by a slight margin). The Padres have better starting pitching, but overall the pitching is close. The Dodgers will need to win on offense, defense and the bullpen. Names to watch: Rojas, Lux, Kelly, Teo, Muncy! Mookie, Freddie, and Shohei are the keys… as they go, so will the Dodgers.

Prediction: The team to win three games first will take it. I think the Dodgers will win.