I have never been wrong… well, once I thought I was wrong… but I was mistaken. Seriously, while I do get a lot right, I am frequently wrong, and today, I am going to talk about a few things I have been wrong about:
- Well, I was really wrong about Andy LaRoche. So, there is that.
- So far, I have been wrong about Miguel Vargas. Progress is not linear, so the jury is still out, but he’s no longer a Dodger so… whatever!
- I was wrong that the D-Bags and the Rangers would both be under .500. Well, I was right about the Rangers, but very wrong about the D-Bags. I did not think either would be a .500 team, but the D-Bags proved me wrong.
- I was wrong about Gavin Stone. I thought he was destined to be a reliever. I liked him a lot, but did not envision his as a starter and much less, that he would lead the Dodgers in Innings Pitched. Wow! He is a great #4 and a solid #3.
- I did not think Miguel Rojas would be hitting closer to .300 than .200 at this time of the season.
- I thought that if Kershaw played this year, it would be in Texas. I still think he will finish his career there.
By the way, I was right about Gavin Lux and Oneil Cruz not being shortstops. We found out about Lux in Spring Training and about Cruz this week, as they are moving him to CF… and you heard it here first. I do get some things right.
Fangraphs Power Ratings
Fangraphs is not afraid to try new things and think outside of the box. Last week’s Power Rankings looked like this:
This is based upon a new model, which they describe as this:
This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.
To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.
You can read all about it HERE.
Here’s a couple of other good reads:
In part, it says:
1. Dodgers (previously: 4)
Season high: 1 | Season low: 6
When we all tell the stories of Shohei Ohtani decades from now, recounting all the incredible things he did, don’t forget this one: The day after he became the first MLB player to ever reach the 40-40 mark in August, he threw his first bullpen session off a mound since having Tommy John surgery. “It went well,” Dave Roberts said, in case you weren’t scared enough already.
Kershaw will finish out his career in Los Angeles. He knows how rare it is for any player to finish where he started.
That seems right to me.
If he wanted to go to the Rangers, he could have done so years ago.
I’m now hoping Kershaw proves himself clearly worthy of a post-season start and doesn’t get too much favoritism for sentimental reasons. If this is his last season, let’s hope his career ends on a high note.
The post-season roster seems pretty much set. But with Yamamoto and Glasnow due back, the competition among SPs will include those guys plus Kershaw, Stone, Flaherty Miller and Buehler.
If you read the book that Houston Mitchell just wrote, you might come to a different decision. He will retire as a Dodger, but he might want to play at home in front of his kids for a while. It’s not etched in stone, but it’s a possibility and I think the Dodgers would even endorse it.
When did Houston Mitchell write a recent book?
You thinking of Andy McCullough?
Yes, can’t you read my mind and know what I meant to say?
It’s a short story! 😉
You’ve been right about a lot of Dodger transactions and players but Wrong on the Dodgers signing of Ohtoni and the Dodgers keeping Trevor Bauer after the MLB investigation had concluded.
Yes, I was wrong about Ohtani. I had no idea that he would defer so much money. No clue.
On Bauer, that was a travesty of justice!
You can never have too much pitching, but the Dodgers will be close by the end of the season.
Anyone have this book?
https://www.thealltime.com/collections/books/products/the-all-time-dodgers-book
Looks awesome.
In this economy?
I hear you the economy suks.
Still a cool book.
We moved into a new home a few months ago, and all of my books are in stacks, but when we get the Library Room done, I will take a photo of all my Dodger books.
You got this one?
Not yet!
I truly hope your wrong about Kershaw. Since the Houston debacle I’ve grown to dislike anything and everything about Texas(not the people). It’s my own personal problem that I have to get over because hate is not good for the soul. I’m in the camp that Kershaw will pitch and excel in this year’s playoffs. If he pitches for the rangers I’ll throw away my autograph ball of his, if I had one. BTW that is my next ball I want to get. I have Drysdale, Koufax and Scully, plus other retired Dodgers but I’ll never get a Seager if it was given to me.
I have a Kershaw ball. Well, my son has it, because Clayton addressed it to him.
I have a Vin Scully and Steve Garvey. I gave the rest away.
MLBTR.com reports that JHey is close to signing a deal with the Astros.
He’s dead to me…..I know no one hit last year in the postseason but he had 7 AB’s and 4K’s….
He has a career .148 Avg in Postseason.
CT3 hits .250 with 9 HR’s in the postseason….this really was an easy call….
A dead guy with a post season avg of .148 would actually be pretty decent.
I wonder how they’d get him to a standing position in the batter’s box?
I think Kershaw is still with LA because they’re the only team to pay him 20m without any pressure to play. A move to Texas would require performance. I think Kersh only switches teams if he feels healthy enough to contribute throughout a season.
10:10 PM ET
Orioles (76-56)
Dodgers (78-53)
SP Cole Irvin L
6-5 4.82 ERA
SP Jack Flaherty R
10-5 3.00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
RF Mookie Betts R
LF T. Hernandez R
C Will Smith R
CF Tommy Edman S
SS Miguel Rojas R
3B Max Muncy L
1B E. Hernandez R
2B Chris Taylor R
75° Wind 9 mph Out
NO Feddie Freeman
The Dodgers lineup is without Freddie Freeman, who is just 3-for-23 in six games since suffering a hairline fracture in the middle finger of his right hand. That has Kiké Hernández making another start at first base, just his second of the year at that position and ninth overall.
After spending nearly two months on the injured list, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is set to begin his rehab assignment Wednesday with Triple-A Oklahoma City in Round Rock at Dell Diamond.
According to Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, the rookie right-hander will throw two innings and if it goes well, he is likely to make one more rehab start before rejoining the big league club.
When I was about 13, I went into the local McDonald’s. My favorite Dodger, Steve Garvey, was in there feeding French Fries to his two young daughters.
He had a beautiful white and blue Lincoln outside.
I still have his autograph on a small French Fries bag.
Very cool.
This is my son with Clayton at 10 when he got the autographed ball:
Here he is now, with his own future Dodger Fan:
TIME FLIES!