This question seems to be on everyone’s mind lately, especially when it come to where Shohei Ohtani or Mookie Betts bats. People have different opinions and while “figures may not lie” how you interpret them may also be subjective. Yesterday, I wrote this:
“As a Leadoff Hitter, this year, Shohei Ohtani is hitting .324 with a .400 OB% and a 1.148 OPS. Late and Close, he is OPS’ing 1.205. Yes, he is in a slump and it happens to the best of them. To say he is not a leadoff hitter is just plain silly!“
—Mark Timmons
Well, then M.Norris (aka/Bear) wrote this:
“Well Mark might think I am silly, and I respect his opinion, but Shohei Ohtani should not be a leadoff hitter. Not on a team that has Mookie Betts. Ohtani is a .265 hitter in the leadoff spot, Betts, .296. Ohtani’s OBP in the one spot, .368, Betts, ,376. Ohtani strikes out almost a third of the time leading off, Betts, less than 20. Betts walks more frequently, he has stolen 141 bases as a leadoff hitter, and 228 of his career homers have come as a leadoff man. Ohtani’s slug and OPS might be a little better, but he is all slug. In the leadoff spot this year, he is hitting .259. His BA, .314, OBP .387 and K rate are all better in the 2-hole. Sorry but the stats do not support that theory. I’ll take Mookie in the leadoff spot over Shohei any day. Betts hits for a higher BA in the 2 hole, but his OPS drops under .900. Ohtani’s OPS in the 2 hole, 1.008. His BA in the 2 hole, .287, is 22 points higher than leading off in his career. And I do not believe that those comparison stats are silly at all. On the offensively poor Angels it might make sense, but not on the Dodgers.“
–M.Norris
No, I do not think you are silly, but we used two different measurements. My stats came from MLB.com and I was relying on this:
I am not sure now what that stat means… maybe it is just leading off an inning, but if you go to www.baseball-reference.com, you will see that Bear’s numbers are accurate. So, that means that Shohei Ohtani should not lead off…. right? Maybe… maybe not! Everything is not always black or white and clear cut. Consider this: Shohei Ohtani is mired in a horrible slump. In the last 25 games he is hitting .200 (albeit with a .826 OPS). He is hitting .172 in August. After hitting .316 the first half of the season, he is hitting. .204 the second half. All of that is in the leadoff spot, but is that the cause or effect or even an issue. Maybe it is just a slump and it would have happened no matter where he hit. We don’t know…
Of course, he has hit leadoff the whole second half, so one has to consider that most of his leadoff stats were accumulated when he went to leadoff after Mookie Betts was injured. Baseball is a game of streaks and runs, ebbs and valleys, hot and cold streaks and in the end, I do not think it makes a lot of difference where a batter hits… in theory!
Mookie Betts hit .208 in June with a .702 OPS – But nobody was calling to move him off the leadoff spot! Last year, Mookie hit .455 in August and followed it up with .244 in September and October! I really don’t care who leads off but if you start with a LH batter, you can alternate L-R all through the lineup, which is not a huge deal…. but it is a deal.
If I were to make up a batting order, I would use OPS as the method of placing a player in a spot. The highest OPS leads off and then you rank them in order. If that were the case, here is the batting order:
- Ohtani .990
- Betts .898
- Freeman .879
- T. Hernandez .825
- Muncy .798
- Smith .761
- Rojas .726
- Kiermaier .717
- Lux .683
Of course, Lux is rising fast. I think the lineup stays the way it is… at least to the end of August. Shohei needs to break out of this slump. I also like him at leadoff because of his 37 stolen bases in 41 attempts. If Mookie leads off then Shohei and Freddie are two LH bats in a row. Certain pitchers are more effective against LHP, so I like the L-R Balance, but that is just me. By the way, there is no “right” answer. Ohtani just need to get that OPS over 1.100.
To put OPS in perspective, if a player has an OPS over 1.000, that simply means that (on average) he starts out every at-bat on 1B. Not a bad way to start!
Rants & Raves
- No one has claimed Amed Rosario as yet. Seems strange that a .300 hitter is without a job. Maybe what I told you was true?
- Ben Casparius will allegedly be activated for todays game. He is not on the 40-man so someone has to come off or go on the 60-day IL. Frasso?
- Tony Gonsolin is a year removed from Tommy John, but there is no timetable for his return. We will see him in March or April, which is the Dodgers new “timetable” for TJ returns: 18 Months. Let’s not forget how good he once was. For his career, he is 34-11 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP and in 2022 he was 16-1 with a 2.04 ERA. He comes back next year along with Dustin May and Shohei Ohtani.
- Let’s see what Clayton has in the tank. Casparius is a great contract to CK and will likely be the first man out of the bullpen. Who goes down?
- Nick Anderson struck out 4 in 2 IP last night for OKC.
- Max Muncy was 2-3 with a 3-Run HR (.286 BA/.851 OPS). Tommy Edman walked 3 times (.294 BA/.939 OPS) – Here they come!
- Blake Treinen struck out the side on 12 pitches at Tulsa last night!
Leadoff isn’t the problem! it’s the lack of hitting overall! the other night , everyone in the lineup had a hit. last night 4 guys had hits. Ohthani is in a terrible “hitting “ slump as is Will. Teo needed a day off to reset. They are leaving far too many men on base! I don’t think there’s much doubt ohtani is swinging for the fences every at bat. Kiki’s hot streak has gone away. Even Lux was swinging out of his shoes last night! Now Muncy and Edman are coming! that should help. But it won’t cure all their hitting woes. Haven’t seen Heyward! Is it possible his time is over? Kevin K. should absolutely stay in my opinion. Dodgers should be fine, but guys have to hit , move runners, quit swinging for the fences!!
Frasso has to remain in the minors on the injury list so his service time does not start. River Ryan can be moved from the 15 day IL to the 60 day IL when Casparius is put on the 40 man roster,but to be activated on the 26 man roster, someone has to be DFA like Honeywell or Banda or someone has to be hit the IL list.
Another option to make room for Casparius on the 26 man roster is to option Bobby Miller to Oklahoma City to work out his mental part of the game.
San Diego has the tie breaker with the Dodgers, by winning the season series. That means as of today,Sunday August 18th the Division lead is down to 1(ONE).
X-rays on Freeman’s right middle finger came back negative Saturday, and he’s considered day-to-day, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Here’s something else that I forgot:
The higher you hit in the lineup, the more ABs you get in a season. A #1 hitter will get about 190 more AB’s than a #9 Hitter. So, in my mind, I want my best hitter up as much as possible. He only leads off the game once, so what does that hurt?
Now. if Shohei keeps slumping and Mookie becomes the best hitter, by all means, move him up!
Here’s an article in Fangraphs that explains it all:
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/buying-generic-plate-appearances-by-lineup-spot/
#Dodgers Lineup minus Freddie Freeman:
1. Ohtani DH
2. Betts RF
3. Lux 2B
4. Hernandez LF
5. Rojas 3B
6. Kiermaier CF
7. E. Hernandez 1B
8. Barnes C
9. Ahmed SS
Clayton Kershaw SP
NO Heyward again. Ahmed probably gets DFA when Edman is activated tomorrow
Freddie’s finger is worse than yesterday and he can’t grip a bat. Going for a CT scan tomorrow.
I don’t think we’re going to see him in the lineup for a while and I wouldn’t be surprised if they activate Muncy immediately and move him to first base. Kike, Rojas or Edman can cover third.
It’s time we start talking about the Curse of Ohtani. Could he miss the playoffs again?
(Just kidding………………………….I hope)
08/18/24 Los Angeles Dodgers designated RHP Brent Honeywell for assignment.
08/18/24 Los Angeles Dodgers selected the contract of RHP Ben Casparius from Oklahoma City Baseball Club.
08/17/24 Los Angeles Dodgers sent RHP Connor Brogdon on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.
Knowing what little I know, I do not understand why they keep Brogdon over Honeywell…
I think they value upside over reliability.
They value missing bats over soft contact.
Barnes batting with Ahmed on deck is a scenario that will not happen in October.
Snakes and Jorge’s favorite team both lose. Dodgers up a game on both.
Splitting up lefties and righties seems like the best approach. Roberts mentioned he was concerned about giving the opposing manager back to back lefties in Freeman and Ohtani. This would be even more important in the playoffs where managers are matching up their bullpen as early as the 4th or 5th inning. Given that you want your three best hitters (Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani) up in those first three spots, it is either Freeman or Ohtani leading off. I think Ohtani is more accustomed to that than Freddie. Then come back with Hernandez, Muncy, Smith, and Lux. Edman bats 9th so there is a switch hitter and pseudo lead off hitter batting ninth. That makes the most sense to me. Rojas would bat 8th in this scenario.
Kershaw was incredible today. I had my doubts about whether he could be effective coming back off shoulder surgery but he has proven me wrong. Some of these pieces are falling into place for the Dodgers. Yamamoto is on target to return, Betts in right and Rojas at short looks like the best use of their personnel, Kopech has been better than many thought, and Phillips has regained his form.
To think Friedman gets Flaherty, Kopech, Edman, and Kiermaier at the deadline for Yarbrough, Vargas, Liranzo, Sweeney and two A level prospects at the deadline is impressive, to say the least. Especially considering what the Padres and Astros paid for Scott, Adams, Hoeing, and Kikuchi. There is a reason this front office is held in such high regard among other executives.
Yes!!
Rosario was claimed off waivers by the Reds. Ohtani is a power hitter. He should bat deeper in the lineup. That is my opinion. Prototypical leadoff hitters actually draw a lot of walks and do not strike out much. Ohtani goes against the grain on both counts.
Most teams go by OPS. The higher the OPS, the more suited they are for leadoff.
The Yankees are one of the few teams who don’t.
An out is an out whether you strike out of ground out, but OPS don’t lie. A player with an OPS that’s over 1 is considered excellent, as it means the player is both getting on base frequently and hitting for power.
Most teams go by OPS. The higher the OPS, the more suited they are for leadoff.
The Yankees are one of the few teams who don’t.
An out is an out whether you strike out of ground out, but OPS don’t lie. A player with an OPS that’s over 1 is considered excellent, as it means the player is both getting on base frequently and hitting for power.
Batting average doesn’t weight a player’s hits the same way OPS does. For example, a player with 27 singles in 100 at-bats would have a .270 average. A player with 27 home runs in 100 at-bats would also have a .270 average. The player with 27 home runs has decisively added more value than the player with 27 singles, and he would have a dramatically higher OPS as a result.
I would have the player with 27 HR leading off as I would want him to come to the plate as much as possible.
I would rather he do that with someone on base. Solo shots do not do it for me. PRODUCTION is the key. But if you like that, Mookie should be your guy. He has 50 leadoff homers in his career.
There’s no guarantee your lead up guy will actually lead off at any ending but the first. I don’t see that it’s that big a deal either way.
Bingo!
But, if your leadoff hitter happens to have the best OPS on the team, it means that over 162 games, they will get more ABs and score the most runs. That’s a fact that is not in dispute. So, over 162 games, the Dodgers will score more runs with Ohtani leading off over Betts.
I don’t see what the argument is. The will get more production from a guy whose OPS is 100 points higher than Mookie.
the old guy was great today!! still got it!! don’t doubt the guy! bottom was the bottom again! Hudson can’t be trusted in october! …. i really liked Honeywell. guess who i like don’t mean squat!! …. can’t wait for Max and Edman , hopefully to energize the offense! …. Kopech IS the closer! (unless Doc has brain farts)!! Rojas is invaluable to this team! …. kiki and heyward are in jeopardy! ….. Gavin Lux ain’t going nowhere any time soon!! … Hope Freddie is ok!
Vintage Kershaw. Is he once again the ace of the staff?
He threw only 70 pitches, so I wish he’d gone another inning.
As for who bats first, there is no wrong answer between Mookie and Shohei. But I’d still like to see what would happen when Shohei bats third, between Freddie and Teo.
Smith’s slump, I think, means Teo should bat clean up. And I think Lux’s surge should put him in the 5th spot, followed by Smith and then Max. Lux is hot and just seems to hit better when he place higher in the batting order. That leaves the 8th and 9th spot for some combo of Rojas, Edman and Kiermaier.
Will Pages’ bat against lefties–a .337 BA and .871 OPS– keep him on the roster?
Ohtani strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk and doesn’t take pitches. Should he lead off? Yes, because he steals bases andhe doesn’t help batters in front of him by swinging at everything. In the positive side, hitting a dong on the first pitch of the game really unnerves the opposing pitcher. If he goes back to hitting for average, a 50/50 year is possible. Keep him at the top of the order.
i think Clayton could easily gone another inning. But i like the removal by Doc! (1). probably a wise choice for his arm. (2). take him out with the lead. he doesn’t need self assurance, but leaving with a shutout? Makes even the great ones feel better! Right now Daniel Hudson. is not a high leverage reliever. Giving up homers at an alarming pace! …. Evan Phillips looks like himself again. Kopech has been almost perfect! Brasier will help immensely! Joe , if control is there, adds high octane to a (if healthy) bullpen. … Series with the Mariners a good one! They have great starting pitching, with little offense. So with Max back and Tommy Edman here , even without Freddie, should be ok. … Speaking of Freddie, any word this morning? I saw someone posted on bleacher report maybe 4-6 weeks! I sure hope not. This team is almost snake bit right now! No pun intended!
Dave Roberts indicated both Muncy and Edman will be activated today. #Dodgers
Both Muncy and Edman are on the 60 Day IL so two roster moves need to made. Ahmed will be DFA as one of the moves, but who will the second be or what will the second move entail?
Dodgers fans will have to wait:
Roki Sasaki Decides Against MLB Move: Report
“In a surprising twist, Roki Sasaki, a highly anticipated pitcher from Japan, might not be joining the MLB after all. Sasaki has reportedly decided to continue his career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, putting the Dodgers’ plans on hold. This decision follows his recent injury during a game”.
Max Fried returns home to LA.
Hasn’t Fried been hurt a lot in 2024?
Buy Low, sell High.
We do not need starting pitching for the long run if we keep who have and can get some resemblance of healthy.
Dodgers Calling Hunter Feduccia Back Up As Austin Barnes Suffers Injury
That should give Smith more ABs against lefties. His OPS is .947 vs lefties and .691 vs righties.
Barnes is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list prior to Monday’s game versus the Mariners, J.P. Hoornstra of DodgersNation.com reports.
“Per David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports, Barnes took a foul ball off his left big toe during Sunday’s win over the Cardinals. It’s uncertain whether he’s dealing with a fracture or is just sore. Barnes will be eligible to come off the IL at the end of August but it’s not clear if he might be ready at that time. Hunter Feduccia will be called up to serve as the Dodgers’ backup catcher behind Will Smith”.
Treinen is eligible to return to the club on Tuesday, and it seems that will be the day he returns. According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the Dodgers plan to activate Treinen when he is first eligible:
I totally get that the leadoff man really only leads off once. But I still would rather have a chance at a big inning in the first with my big power hitter hitting behind guys who get on base. Ohtani does not fit the description of a good leadoff hitter. He is a power hitter. And next year, when he is pitching, he won’t be hitting, so you lose that bat on days he pitches.
My idea is to hit my best hitters 1-2-3, and I would literally do it by OPS. If Mookie wants to hit leadoff, then he needs to get his OPS higher than Shohei. If Freddie has the highest OPS, I would hit him first.
Shoot, since the All-Star Break, Lux is hitting .367 with a .431 OB% ane q 1.076 OPS. I would consider him in the top 3, 4 or 5!
I would use OBP. I want guys at the top who get on base. Mookie’s OBP for his career is higher than Ohtani.
It’s fairly obvious that at least this year Ohtani hits better leading off. He just hasn’t been that good with runners on and in Scoring Position as opposed to bases empty and when he leads off an inning. The splits below clearly show that.
None on: .300 AVG .378 OBP 1.038 OPS
Leading off inning: .313 AVG .392 OBP 1.114 OPS
Runners on: .276 AVG .355 OBP .901 OPS
Scoring Pos: .223 AVG .300 OBP .630 OPS
I do not know where you got that info, but Ohtani is hitting .253 in the 1 hole this year. He is hitting .314 in the 2-hole. Check his splits on Baseball reference for the year. His OPS is virtually the same, but he rarely walks.
Bear: I don’t want to be argumentative but here are the walk % numbers:
Ohtani: 2024 12.0%, Career 12.2%
Betts: 2024 13.3%, Career 10.8%
League average: 8.3%
The way I see it is both are good at drawing walks. For their careers, Ohtani is actually better. This year Mookie has a 1.3% advantage, which across 600 plate appearances means about 8 walks in a season.
While I certainly understand and accept your argument, I’m not sure I wouldn’t prefer a vastly better base stealer giving a walk, single, error, etc a much better chance to become a double to having the power behind the 1st 2-3 hitters. Anyway, a great discussion.
The Dodgers are planning to activate Max Muncy and Tommy Edman today
“In potentially related news: Nick Ahmed’s locker has been cleared out, and Andy Pages just packed his up and left the clubhouse”
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Sunday that Kopech is “gassed” and will be held out from pitching for a few days, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Not sure he’ll be able to be the full time closer.
He’s been here for 19 days and has pitched 9 times.
3 outs eight times and 4 outs one time.
And now Doc says he’s going to rest him for a few days.
Thrilled to have him but he ain’t gonna be the only closer we use.
Good News!!!!!
Freeman (finger) is in the starting lineup for Monday’s game against the Mariners, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
“Freeman was expected to miss Monday’s matchup and potentially a few more days after suffering an injury Saturday and missing Sunday’s game. Despite being diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his right middle finger, he’s been penciled into the starting lineup for the series opener. Skipper Dave Roberts noted in his pregame remarks that Freeman remaining in the starting nine going forward will be all about pain tolerance, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic”.
The Dodgers designated shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment and optioned rookie outfielder Andy Pages to Triple-A Oklahoma City this evening. The move opened spots on the major league roster for Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, both of whom have returned from the 60-day injured list. Ahmed’s DFA opened one spot on the 40-man roster, while the Dodgers transferred River Ryan to the 60-day IL to create an additional spot. Ryan underwent Tommy John surgery and is done for the season. Los Angeles also recalled catcher Hunter Feduccia and placed veteran backup Austin Barnes on the 10-day injured list with a toe fracture.
Freddie Freeman-Max Muncy-Tommy Edman all in the lineup:
1.Ohtani DH
2.Betts RF
3.Freeman 1B
4.T. Hernandez LF
5.Lux 2B
6.Smith C
7.Muncy 3B
8.Rojas SS
9.Edman CF
Gavin Stone SP
Just the way I drew it up.
Nice call
And that’s why you put Mad Max in there with his trash batting average and swing and miss. Dude is still a gamer and carries a Big Hammer, always a threat late in the game. We have missed him big time the past two months, look at the length of the lineup with him in there, so stoked he’s back.
And totally agree Mark, great lineup, the key to that lineup is Lux at the 5 spot. If he’s hitting like he is right now, you got Max in the bottom three of the order just behind Will Smith, so you know he’s gonna have some guys on. Totally changes the dark hole of the 789 hitters in the lineup. This is the lineup I would go to war with totally.
And that sports fans is why the Dodgers put up with Max Muncy’s .220 BA. His OPS right now is at .812. 5th on the team behind Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Teo. How about the fine plays Freddie Freeman made with a busted digit.