A lot of Dodger Fans are writing off Walker Buehler because the velocity of his four-seamer topped out at 95.9 MPH in his last start and probably averaged 94 MPH. They remember the Walker Buehler (or is it “misremember”?) who threw 99-100 MPH and walked on water, but of course, that isn’t true. After his Rookie Year, Walker rarely threw over 97 MPH. Yes, early in his career, he could hit 98+, but that was not often. According to Baseball Savant, here are the facts on the average MPH of his four-seam fastball:
- 2017 – 98.2 MPH
- 2018 – 96.2 MPH
- 2019 – 96.5MPH
- 2020 – 96.8 MPH
- 2021 – 95.3 MPH
- 2022 – 95.2 MPH
I do not expect Walker to add 2-3 MPH to his fastball like some fans do, but I do think he can “average” 94 or 95 MPH on it this season… and I think that is enough so that he can regain his “touch.” I got to thinking about this a couple of days ago when Justin Verlander returned for his first start in the majors this year.
We tend to think that Verlander is also a guy who threw 100 MPH, but the reality is that his fastball’s highest “average” was 95.3 MPH in 2017. Since 2019, he has averaged below 95 MPH on his fastball. In his first start this season, he averaged 93.4 MPH, which is similar to what Walker Buehler had averaged in his last start. Of more importance than fastball MPH are spin rate, inches of drop, inches of break, and preparation for the separation of speed between pitches.
Verlander pitched six innings and allowed two runs, zero walks, and struck out four. Unlike Buehler, who hit 95.9 MPH, Verlander did not hit 95 MPH, and he only hit 94 MPH a few times. Most of the time, he was at 92 – 93 MPH. So, while MPH may be important, it is not imperative that he get back to what he was in 2017-2018. That ain’t happening! If Walker can throw his four-seamer at 94 MPH and his slider at 86-87 MPH with the appropriate spin, drop, and break, he might just become a “Co-Ace” again. He is competitive and has the benefit of talking to Clayton Kershaw who was very successful in pitching when his velo dropped. Don’t give up on Striker Buehler just yet!
Dodger News & Notes
- Well, it was good to see Freddie break out!
- Mookie Betts – NL All-Star SS. #2 in Defensive Runs Saved at SS.
- Drew Pomeranz opted out and then re-signed with the Dodgers. He pitched a shutout inning last night at OKC.
- Miguel Vargas, who started out smoking hot, has cooled and is mired in a slump. He is now hitting .254/.871. Slumps can make you or break you…
- Diego Cartaya is hitting .152 (.599 OPS) and striking out at a 33% rate. This won’t cut it!
- At Tulsa, Young and Gauthier have a .275 and .234 BA, respectively… they have tanked as well.
- Alex Freeland is playing SS over Noah Miller at GL and hitting .361/1.111. He is my favorite (I only have “longshots” as my favs).
- Zaihr Hope is still raking at RC. He may need to move up as he is a man among boys at RC – .333/1.133. Gelof too: .317/.967.
- DePaula is struggling at .196, as is Kendall George (.214). George looks like he needs to go back to rookie ball.
When do I start to worry about the Dodgers? Well, they are 12-11. I’ll worry when they are 12-22. I have seen this movie too many times. Every year, fans go bat-shit crazy when the team slumps… and then it all turns out OK. It still is a crapshoot come playoff time. In a future article, I will address how Andrew Friedman may have been “forced” to make some deals he would not normally make and how that could backfire against the Dodgers ownership. You will find this interesting!
Earlier this week I had to mute the Dodger games when Jessica Mendoza and Stephen Nelson were announcing the games as I cannot stand her annoying laughing all the time and his immature comments that are high schoolish. Lately the Dodgers are now hard to watch even with no voice with every part of their game a disaster, from bad running mistakes like Outman with his slide into second base causing an unnecessary double play. bad starting and relief pitching, to not hitting in the clutch to a bottom of the lineup that doesn’t put the ball in play enough. Today I will be heading to Scarsdale New York for a family function and will be unable to watch today’s game which will be a blessing in disguise.
a couple beers finally calmed me down last night! in reality, the dodgers still need a left fielder that can hit. they need a left handed reliever, and they need probably another inning eating starter. i was driving back from my granddaughter s soccer game,(she scored her first goal) and was listening to the game. i didn’t even bother to watch the rest when i got home. jumped on my mower and just checked in periodically. i did record it but around nine had a choice, the recording. or a rory calhoun western, i chose Rory! i do question doc a lot of times, but yesterday k after k after k? still wouldn’t mind AG calling the marlins! 3 there,2nd baseman, starter, and reliever all in a bundle!
Sunday Dodgers Minor League Schedule
10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Christian Romero) vs. West Michigan (TBD)
11:05 a.m.: Tulsa (Hyun-il Choi) at Wichita (Jaylen Nowlin)
12:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Eduardo Salazar) vs. Sacramento (TBD)
2:05 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Edgardo Henriquez) at Inland Empire (Francis Texido)
The Arizona Complex League starts Saturday May 4.
The Dodgers will get on a winning streak but the fact remains that they have too much swing and miss. To be successful in the playoffs that has to change. But how? Either new players or new hitting coach. It’s just embarrassing watching mlb players who can’t make contact.
Buehler used to be able to get that strikeout with the high fastball but no more. He can be a serviceable pitcher but not a number 1 or probably 2 any more. It’s been almost 2 years how long does it take?
Pomeranz resigned mb he can get back to quality now that he is healthy. If I was Friedman I would start looking at the top 20 contact hitters in mlb and c if there is a fit with the team and trade partner.
Can someone explain why Pomeranz would opt out just to turn around and re-sign? Why opt out?
Turns out nobody wanted him
Well. Usually, a former MLB Player will trigger his opt-out of a minor league contract to see if he can get an MLB contract.
He evidently couldn’t – although I think some teams would have offered him a minor-league deal as well.
So, he re-signed with the Dodgers believing that is his best path back to MLB.
I could understand his coming back since the Dodgers have such a great rep with pitchers, but it seemed like both transactions pretty much happened within 24 hours. Sounds like he didn’t take any time to see who else might have wanted him.
The churn should help Pomeranz…
The line about load the bases and we’ll do nothing is too close to truth.
To echo your point, the Dodgers are 3/25 with the bases loaded.
Just get ready to enjoy the reversion to the mean.
As Bear mentions below, the Dodgers hit a team record 11 grand slams last year. Perhaps this is the reversion.
Hmmmm.
What makes you laugh will make you cry.
It has been a tough home stand. Going in, I thought they would at least be 5-4. Now they have a chance to be 2-7. Not good anyway you cut it. I hate strikeouts, and unfortunately, this team does that in abundance. Between Muncy and Hernandez, they have struck out 65 times. Outman and Freeman are in the 20’s. Last season they hit a team record 11 grand slams. This year they can’t hit with the bases loaded. You have the bases loaded and less than 2 outs, you need to score. So far, this lineup and these players have not shown they can do that. At least Freddie got off of the Schneid yesterday and drove in three. It looks like they are all trying to hit the long ball instead of just making contact and putting the ball in play. Swinging from the heels is not going to get you a lot of hits. They need a new philosophy. Von Shylock’s way is not going to cut it. Yep, they are still in first simply because the rest of the division is playing as badly as they are. Now they go on a road trip to DC, Toronto and Arizona. They need a very good road trip to get back on track. Winning today would be a good start.
“Von Shylock’s way is not going to cut it.”
.
.
THIS!
well said Bear! rvs is done! please replace him ! no bunts, home runs or bust, no steals, no runs with runners in scoring position! all adds up to miserable baseball! call the marlins!
Who do you think the Marlins would deal? Their best pitchers are all on the IL. Alcantara, Perez, Garrett. Their best hitter so far is Arraez, and he is only hitting .267. I can think of better trade partners, but rarely will you see teams deal front line players this early in the season. Luzardo? His ERA is above 6 and he is 0-2. Is he better than what the Dodgers have? Their only reliever with any saves is Tanner Scott with three, and he has an 0-3 record despite a sub 3 ERA. No, the Dodgers will wait this out until they have played at least 50 games and most of their hitters reach 100 or more ABs. And if they make any deals, it will be closer to the deadline. Buehler will be back in about 2 weeks. Hopefully Heyward returns soon too. Trienen and Graterol are getting closer to returning too. I still think they need more pop off of the bench.
4:10 PM ET
Mets (12-8)
Dodgers (12-11)
SP Adrian Houser R
0-1 4.70 ERA
SP Tyler Glasnow R
3-1 3.72 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Mookie Betts R
DH S. Ohtani L
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
LF T. Hernandez R
CF James Outman L
RF Andy Pages R
2B Gavin Lux L
75° Wind 2 mph R-L
Caleb Ferguson is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA
I saw that. Just lost xtra inning game for them. Hudson Milwaukee 0.96
Craig Counsel uses Belli and Busch against RHP… not always LHP
I do not like those strict platoon lineups DR employs. I would like a regular lineup where hitters can get in a rythm and not being cooled down due to the constant change.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go back in a time machine to 1980-1990.
Then you will be happy!
I’m wonderfully amazed at some posts here.
Eyes Rolling.
Aarrez would work just fine .267 ! dodgers would like about 4 of those!
Arraez is a second baseman, and he has more errors than Lux. Arraez also has an OPS below .700. He has always had an iffy glove and little range. He doesn’t have any power and he does not walk much.
but he can hit bear! betcha he is .300 before all star game! i’m worried lux won’t be at .200!
I’ll take that bet!
Sure, he can hit, his career avg is .323. But his fielding is below average, and he is not going to save you a lot of games with his glove. Why do you think Minnesota traded him in the first place? He has no power, he does not steal bases, he does not walk much either. His OPS + this year is under 100. Lux has missed over a year. He has played exactly 18 games that mean anything since the end of the 22 season. He has had 59 at bats. His last full season he hit .276. Let him get some ABs under his belt, he will be fine. He has always hit at every level he has played at. Not only that, but his glove has also been very impressive since he moved back to second base. He is also younger than Arraez. Lux is going to have a runway to improve. The Dodgers, if they make a trade at all, won’t even think about it until just before the deadline. This is not the time to panic. It is way too early to make judgements on any of the players. We already know that Muncy, Outman, and Hernandez are going to strike out a lot. Pages is learning on the fly. Betts, Ohtani and Smith are all hitting well over .300. Muncy is at .237, around where he usually hits. Teoscar is at .264, which is a little above his career average. Guys at the bottom have to get better.
I would look at teams to trade with like twins pirates red sox white Sox and A’s. And see if they have second baseman shortstop or third baseman that is what the dodgers need consistent hitters. Which play every day and then guys that come off the bench. Have some pop. Look who they have off the bench now. Kiki Barnes Rojas Lux Taylor as guys to hit in runs off the bench. Outman in CF Pages in RF Hernandez LF that’s a lot of strikeouts from your outfielders. They need to address the outfield. You all remember when we had Gurerro Landreuex and Marshall as an outfield at least they put the ball in play and had some pop. That’s what these three now need to do. Just get on base like those guys. And every now and then bam a homer. But now. Every swing there swinging for the fences.
A. It is way too early in the season to even consider trades. B. Let us look at those teams you think they should trade with. Twins: Only hitter on the Twins over .300 is Correa, and he is on the IL. Two players, Alex Kirloff and Austin Martin are at .270 or better. None of their players have any power. And their 2B is hitting under .200. Pirates: Their SS is a former Dodger, Oneil Cruz. He is hitting .214. Their second baseman is hitting .222. Only player doing well is Bryan Reynolds, and he isn’t going anywhere since he signed his long-term extension with the Pirates. Red Sox: Boston has problems of it’s own. Even their All-Star third baseman, Devers, is having a really bad year. None of the positions you mentioned are playing half as well as our guys. Their SS is hitting .182, their second baseman, .169. And they just had to put one of their best hitters, Casas, on the IL. White Sox: Chicago is a disaster area. The team is 3-17. Now who on a 3-17 team is going to make the Dodgers better??? Their best player, Robert Jr, is on the IL and won’t be back for a while. Jiminez, their DH is hitting .141. Moncada, their second baseman is on the 60-day IL. Oakland: Oakland has absolutely no one the Dodgers would want. Only three of their everyday players are above .200. It is way too early to even consider trades anyway. By the way, Pedro Guererro was not a very good outfielder, Marshall was hurt a lot. The outfield that they have right now is going to be fine. You just are not giving these guys enough at bats yet. Pages has played in exactly 4 games and has 16 plate appearances. Hernandez is always going to strike out a lot, but he also is going to give you close to 30 long balls and drive in a lot of runs. He is the team leader in that stat by the way. And Mookie is comfortable where he is. Rojas is too old to be an everyday SS anymore. The type of hitter you want, just isn’t there that much anymore. That is not the philosophy hitting coaches teach. I hate strikeouts as much as anybody. But I am a realist. If you are going to trade, get someone who makes your lineup better. None of the teams you mentioned have any players like that, and the one they would have the most interest in, Reynolds, is not going anywhere.
Has anyone thought about just put Rojas as the shortstop improves the defense and move betts to second base. Try to get a outfielder or better third baseman and starter. Or put Betts back in RF or Center fielder. Seems like they could get a shortstop second baseman and third baseman from other teams and move Betts back to the outfield. Rojas shortstop every day makes defense better and platoon second baseman with lux Hernandez Taylor, and put Betts in CF or RF. Improve the outfield with Betts and improve infield with Rojas. If they did trade with Marlins get Burger thrid baseman for Muncy there exact same player just Burger is younger. When season is yong try different things that work. How about this lineup.
K Hernandez 2b
Betts. RF
Freeman 1b
Ohtani DH
Smith. C
Muncy 3B
T Hernandez LF
Pages CF
Rojas. SS
Keep trying…
Oh I wil. It usually takes changing a lineup around to find the right combination of players. Look at say 2018 and now 2024 there’s a different vibe with the dodgers in 2018 they pretty much had the same guys playing and then to give a guy a rest the backup played. Now 2024 everyday is a different lineup. But when you have four bench guys hitting .125 or below that’s bad and that’s what they have now. Is it coaching or talent. Dam go watch the A’s it’s like watching a college game but hey every guy in the lineup doesn’t swing for the fences like the dodgers do. Number one guys are Lux Taylor Hernandez all swing for the homer. Rather then just make contact with the ball and get on base for the big bats to get up.
Betts is not going back to the outfield. Bank on that. He likes it where he is. You got the numbers wrong, the only player under .125 is Taylor. Next worse would-be Outman at .171. Kike is hitting .200, Barnes is at .250, and Rojas is at .250. Lux is the worst among the regulars hitting .143. But let’s be real, none of these guys has had more than 50 at bats. Way too early to judge how they will finish. Page raised his average 70 point by what he did today. And Kike as a leadoff man? Never happen. His best stats come hitting second, sixth or eighth in the order over his career. Also, he is a much better outfielder than infielder. He too for a player like he is strikes out too much.
mustang? lol
Pages jump-started the big 5th-inning with a double, then finished it off with a HR.
glasnow could easily win cy young this year ! pages gave me goosebumps today! maybe he’s a keeper? looked as if doc was up luxs ass ! doc has some fire? wow!
Sweep the Nats and we’re back
“Dave Roberts recently told reporters that Buehler will make at least one more rehab start before returning to the big league club. Said start is scheduled for Wednesday, meaning the earliest Buehler could be expected to pitch in the majors would be April 29”.
Walker Buehler will start in Triple-A for Oklahoma City .
I’m ready for him. Standing O all the way.
Glasnow to the rescue!!
Hopefully, a jump start.
I’m not a player but I crush a lot.
Time to get pissed.
And we’re complaining. What are they saying in Houston?
This game means nothing… or at least very little!
exactly! but glasnow looks the part! pages gives us hope for left field. freddie looks awake. ohthani looks alive! max not so much. outman had a couple of good at bats. barnes pinch hit for ohtani! think that happens again?
Yesterday Mark wrote about Yamamoto where he says he will figure it out which I agree with 100%.
Now let’s put ourselves in Yamamoto’s shoes, he comes from a league where he was practically or almost invincible, where everything he threw worked and when he made mistakes most of the time he got away with it, having said this in combination with the fact that he is a young man. 25 years old brings a bit of arrogance but I assure you that he already realized that what he did in Japan will not work in the same way, he already understood that MLB hitters are of the highest level and that if you make mistakes you will pay for it. expensive, it will take him a while but he will adapt, he has the talent to achieve it, his arsenal is MLB level and as Mark says he will figure it out.
Wow I was just saying they need a better bench then what they have. so where do they look at Bear since your the god that knows so much. Isn’t this a forum chat so how can they the dodgers improve.
How about the players they have play better?
What a difference a win makes, dudes like Joe Death whatever just seem to go dark in their Dodgers doomsday comments. Another thing for all you fools riding the ‘Fire Dave Roberts ‘ bandwagon, if your going to nit pick and bitch and piss and moan about his decisions or lack of during a loss, pony up and give him props for a win like this. First guy that says Doc should have Won with this talent any ways. , I will personally come down to LA and bitch slap your uneducated ass, if your going to trash him, praise him for trotting out that lines in a win. Damn.Mark , I sound so much like you, I kinda get why some of these bozos might think we are too alike, but what the hell, let’s burn it down together!!!