Ron Fairly Taught Me

Posted By on December 28, 2023

I think it was in 1965 or 1966 that I figured out Ran Fairly was not very good against LHP. I was only 12 years old, but every time a LHP went against the Dodgers, I knew that Ron Fairly (who may have been my favorite Dodger at one time) would not do well. To the best of my knowledge, platoons were not a thing back then… at least, they were never discussed. Today, they are becoming a big part of the game… and many fans hate it!

I think it was about that time that I really became a fan of the Dodgers and not just one player. I think that is a big difference between myself and many other fans: I do not have one player that I am a fan of. Many of you are fans of a player as much as you are fans of the Dodgers. I enjoy looking at minor-league prospects and their skill set and predicting how they will do. In recent years, I have added analytics to my evaluation process. I read all the Prospect Reports: Keith Law, BA, BP, Fangraphs, and others. I also have a network of friends who have been in an around baseball for many years and I talk with them.

Then, I draw my own conclusions. I am not always right, but over the past 20 years, I have predicted great things for Clayton Kershaw (I saw one of his first A-League Games and knew he was special), Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo (he has not yet achieved what I think), Keibert Ruiz (he is still developing), Walker Buehler, and many others. I did miss big time on Andy LaRoche (I was way off). I did not like Jeren Kendall, Zach Lee, Gavin Lux. or Grant Holmes as picks. I never thought Lux could play SS, but he has become a better hitter than I thought. However, I still do not think he can play SS.

The point of all of this is that no one gets it right all the time. If someone tells me that they “Knew Will Smith” would be what he is, I guarantee that if you gave them an enema, you could bury them in a shoebox. Will Smith was athletic and a good defensive catcher, but no one thought he would be a good hitter (NO ONE). BA said this about him in 2017:

At the plate Smith showed strong strike-zone awareness and sneaky pop, but overall grades as a fringe-average hitter due to his lack of natural hitting instincts and inconsistent feel for the barrel. Still, evaluators believe he will hit just enough to be an everyday catcher.

–Baseball America

Well, he certainly surpassed that. No one saw that coming, except maybe someone in a mental institution. Ron Fairly taught me not to have a favorite player when I have a favorite team. The reason is that I want the team to win every game, and to do that, you have to put players in their best position for the team to win. That sometimes means platooning. Yesterday, someone was questioning why platoon someone who has a good OB% but little power. I’ll get to that soon and deliver an education on OB% vs. OPS – there is a huge difference.

At any rate, where I am going with this is that there are certain players who have unusual skills which your eyes can see and statistics back up. Miguel Vargas is one of those players, and it is beyond moronic and childish that some of you are so determined to prove that I do not know anything about Miguel Vargas. Some of it falls upon the illusion that liking a player is tantamount to talent evaluation. You can like James Outman all you want. I love his story. I love his athleticism, his never-say-die attitude, his hustle, and his willingness to change. If he is your favorite player, so be it. I do not say he needs to be platooned – I say that because it’s what I see. Can he evolve even more and hit LHP? Sure, and I would give him that opportunity, but when he goes up there and looks absolutely pathetic, I have to draw conclusions.

I watched James Outman in the minor leagues and agreed 100% with BA on their evaluation:

Scouting Report: Outman is a physical, athletic specimen more usually seen playing football. He is a plus runner at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds with quick initial burst and elite acceleration in center field. He ticks up to nearly plus-plus speed underway and runs down long flies to both gaps and at the wall. The Dodgers refined Outman’s lefthanded swing to get his upper and lower halves more in sync. He still has a hand hitch and has to cheat to get to velocity, but he sees pitches well and crushes fastballs when he connects.

The Future: Outman is a nearly-ready fourth outfielder with his defense and power at the plate. He’ll head to Triple-A in 2022.

— Baseball America

The fact that he “still has a hand hitch and has to cheat to get to velocity” will limit him ultimately to being a platoon player or a 4th outfielder. On the other hand, Miguel Vargas caught my eye in 2019, as an 18-year-old. BA said this about him:

Scouting Report: Vargas had a reputation as one of Cuba’s top youth hitters and lived up to it in his pro debut, batting .400/.464/.592 at the Rookie levels before finishing the year at low Class A Great Lakes. Strong and physical at 6-foot-3, 198 pounds, Vargas combines an advanced approach, supreme hand-eye coordination and plus raw power. He has an inside-out swing that primarily sends drives for doubles into the right-center gap, but once he learns to pull the ball evaluators expect his home run numbers to spike. Defensively, Vargas has quick hands and an above-average arm at third base, but his slow-twitch body has most evaluators projecting him to first.

The Future: Vargas will have to mash to rise as a likely first baseman, but he has the offensive tools to do it. He’ll start 2019 back at Great Lakes.

— BA 2019

I won’t bore you will all the scouting reports, but in 2022, BA said this:

Scouting Report: Vargas is a natural-born hitter with an uncanny feel for the barrel. His flat swing keeps his bat in the zone for a long time and covers the entire plate, allowing him to drive balls no matter where they’re pitched. His inside-out swing naturally drives balls the other way into the right-center gap, but he began turning on pitches in 2021 and surprised even Dodgers officials with his above-average pull-side power. He rarely strikes out and is a consensus plus hitter. Vargas faces more questions defensively. He catches balls hit at him and has solid hands, but his slow feet limit his range and mobility at third base. He is a fringy defender with a slightly better than average arm and may have to move to first.

The Future: Vargas draws comparisons to fellow countryman Yuli Gurriel as a hitter and has similar impact potential. He’ll open 2022 at Triple-A and could make his major league debut during the year.

— BA, 2022

Then is 2023, they wrote this:

Scouting Report: Vargas is as complete a hitter as any player his age. He has outstanding control of the strike zone, an innate sense for which pitches to attack and an elite feel for the barrel. He squares up all types of pitches with a direct, inside-out swing that stays in the zone for a long time and covers the entire plate, giving pitchers few holes to attack. He naturally drives the ball the opposite way to right-center field and has begun turning on pitches on the inner half. Vargas doesn’t have huge raw power, but he’s a borderline plus-plus hitter who makes so much quality contact he should reach 20-plus home runs as he gets stronger. Vargas has remade his body to become sleeker and faster and is now a plus runner who posted the second-fastest sprint speed on the Dodgers in 2022. The improved agility has helped his range at third base, but he’s still a below-average defender whose actions, footwork, throwing accuracy and focus need improvement. He is raw and inexperienced at first base, second base and left field.

The Future: Vargas earns frequent comparisons to countryman Yuli Gurriel and has similar potential to be a premier hitter who contends for batting titles. The Dodgers will try to find Vargas’ best position to get him in the lineup every day in 2023.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 65. Power: 50. Speed: 60. Fielding: 40. Arm: 55

— BA, 2023

By actual count, I have watched Miguel Vargas and most other Dodger prospects over 100 games throughout the years. Get this straight: Miguel Vargas is not my favorite player. He is simply a player that many talent evaluators (including me) think will be a very good MLB player. Only a moron, dumbass, idiot, or clinically insane person would change their opinion about Miguel Vargas based upon the fact that he broke two fingers early last season and never was the same afterward. Who needs fingers to hit anyway? All I can say to you, naysayers, is…

Now, Miguel Vargas may not make it in MLB. There are many prospects (some better than him) who have flamed out. I will be the first to say that I was wrong, but right about now, if you say that Vargas is not a top MLB prospect…

Also, if Miguel Vargas can be included in a trade that fills a Dodger team need, then I am all for it. Tomorrow, I will review Michael Busch and what we might expect from him.

OB% vs. OPS

I like to break things down to their simplest form. OB% simply tells us what percentage of the time a player gets on base. On the other hand, OPS is a barometer of how far they get each time they come up to bat. This is where that player ends up on average. The best players in the game (superstars) have an OPS of over 1.000. That means that every time they step into the batters box, they will end up at 1B (on average). So, would you rather have a player with a .664 OPS and a .353 OB% (James Outman) or a player with a .career .340 OB% but a .804 OPS (Max Muncy) against LHP? The guy with the higher OPS gets closer to 1B every time he is up. I rest my case!

This article has 79 Comments

  1. What happens with Vargas and Busch might be the most interesting story of the spring, assuming they make it there.

    1. 100% agree, hope they give Busch a shot and don’t trade him. Be hard to trade the 2023 minor league player of year of your organization before seeing what he can do full time at the next level. Really rooting for Vargas and Outman to both have success. Need to have some youth to keep sustaining this level of excellence going for years to come.

  2. So, would you rather have a player with a .664 OPS and a .353 OB% (James Outman) or a player with a .340 OB% but a .804 OPS (Max Muncy) against LHP? The guy with the higher OPS gets closer to 1B every time he is up.

    Wouldn’t it be, the guy with the higher OPS gets closer to second every time he’s up?

  4. I’d love to see Vargas turn into a solid everyday left fielder. We need a stud right handed bat more than words can say. We are committed to Heyward/Margot/Outman in a RF-CF rotation. That being said with Taylor, Rojas and Barnes playing utility roles with guaranteed contracts, we only have room for one of either Busch or Vargas. Barring an injury, Busch is probably the odd man out, because we are really a left handed stacked lineup. I’ve been advocating for a Bryan Reynolds acquisition. He bats both ways, is a solid run producer and plays pretty good defensively. Batting 6th would give us a really impressive 1st. thru 6th. Then 7th. thru 9th. could be Outman, Heyward, Lux against right handers and Taylor,Margot and Rojas against lefties… in no particular order. If I was the Pirates and was offered Busch, Vargas, Stone and/or Grove for Reynolds, I would call that a huge gift and would jump on that trade.

  5. Hey, players evolve. They may get better or may not. Scouting reports are a reflection in time with an attempt to project the future. Some times accurate, other times not.

    Many, many people, including players, former players, coaches and front office types have spoke of Miguel Vargas in glowing terms. Even Clayton Kershaw called him the real deal. He got hurt and failed to deliver in 2023, but he’s, no doubt, with a tweak or two, capable of delivering this coming season. I see no reason to think his star has disminished. James Outman is a little different. The fourth outfielder tag is probably not accurate. Outman is somewhat of a throwback, work hard to cement your place on the roster. Eventually, I expect him to hit lefties well. He has some power and is getting better defensively. I think Outman is a winner.

    Now Michael Busch is potentially a very good MLB hitter, the only question is where you play him? That’s why some believe he will be traded. Maybe now or in July. But if given an opportunity, I believe he will become an asset to the Dodgers. I think the Dodgers believe Vargas has more upside, but I wouldn’t discount Busch.

    Busch definitely needs an opportunity to play regularly. He’s earned that chance. The Dodgers will show patience with their young pitchers. Will they do the same with the young hitters?

    I was impressed with Yamamoto yesterday. He’s not a slightly built Tim Lincecum type pitcher. He’s well put together and that bodes well for the long haul. Looking forward to seeing him pitch.

    The Dodgers appear to be putting together a super team. But like the Yankees of yesteryear, not every player was a slugger. That will also be the case for the Dodgers. Anyone seeking upgrades to various positions as they seek perfection is bound to be disappointed.

    1. 100% agree with your assessment of Vargas, Busch and Outman. They all have their strengths and weaknesses. These are three players with limited MLB experience. Outman has earned the right to fight for the every day CF job. But there is work to be done. Vargas and Busch still have to prove themselves at the MLB level. But they have nothing more to prove in AAA. Busch is the odd man out, in my opinion, because of his limited potential in the field. I see him as a possible 25-30 HR 1st baseman or DH in his prime. That simply won’t happen on the Dodgers. Vargas has speed and athleticism that Busch doesn’t have. Which offers the potential for him to learn to play positions that Busch cannot. What the Dodgers cannot do is have either of them waisting away in AAA mashing minor league pitching for another year. Either they play in LA or another team in 2024.

      I tend to think Busch will be included in a trade sometime between now and the trade deadline. Maybe Vargas as well, if the return is big enough. But I don’t see them both being Dodgers in 2025.

      Outman will be given the opportunity to be the everyday CFer. But, if he continues to be a slap hitter against LH pitching, I tend to agree with Mark that he will become a platoon candidate. The ball is in his court, so to speak.

  6. This is relentless. Vargas, Vargas, Vargas/Outman-is-a-4th or 5th-outfielder. Ad nauseum.

    Good grief, already!

    As Dodgerrick pointed out yesterday, there are only so many roster spots. If the Dodgers do get a permanent left fielder, it means both Vargas and Busch are in the minors. I doubt Margot is going anywhere. He fills a role.

    Heyward is the starting right fielder, but he has to be platooned, so if it is so imperative that Outman sit against lefty starters, how does that work? …

    Right field – Betts
    Center – Margot
    Second – Lux
    SS – Rojas

    This is assuming CT3 is in left, which even allows for Vargas to be on the squad

    If the Dodgers go out and get a LF, then CT3 is platooning with Outman and no Vargas.

    This constant banging of the drum that Outman is only a 4th or 5th outfielder … I mean, the guy had over 550 plate appearances, had a wRC+ of 118, had 23 home runs, gave better than average defense in the most demanding outfield position. He’s a 4.4 WAR player.

    You wanna know who else was a 4.4 WAR player last year? Outman is a slot ahead of Tatis Jr., right behind Will Smith and Xander Bogaerts. He did this without being platooned.

    Outman is the starting center fielder. He earned it.

    If you truly believe that Outman is a 4th or 5th outfielder, because of his cave man swing and your eyeballs (Trust me, bro!), then he shouldn’t be on the team because the Dodgers don’t have room on the 26. Maybe you’d trade him for scraps. Send him down to the minors.

    Not only did Vargas flop offensively, which you could blame on the boo boos on his poor little fingers, but he played subpar defense. Even Roberts, in one of his rare candid moments, had to call out his bad D at second, and when Roberts is candid, you know it’s bad.

    You want Vargas to play left field (and catcher, LOL)? Yeah, ok. Good luck with that. I mean, great if he can, but it’s not as easy as just throwing a guy out there because he can’t play anywhere else.

    1. Have you watched Vargas play LF?

      I have. He has a total of 37 games there in his career. He has made 3 Errors which is not a lot to go on.

      From the LA Times: Defensively, Vargas has good hands and a strong arm, but some scouts believe that slow feet limited his range and mobility in the infield earlier in his career.

      Vargas called JD Martinez as his “big brother” at FanFest. Vargas also made a strong impression on Martinez.

      “Rob was telling me about this kid, ‘Vargy,’ and ‘how much he looks up to you and how much he idolizes you,’” Martinez said. “He brought Vargy to work out, and we kind of hit it off.

      “He’s just a very humble kid, a great kid. You can tell he came from a good family and has a lot of talent. I’m excited about him. I think he could be something special. He’s got great tools and great ability.”

      That’s my point about Vargas. A 65 Hit Tool Player is rare! It’s really silly not to believe that he has the tools. What you don’t know is how he responds to adversity. Michael Bush passed him last year, and I believe it affected his confidence. The only question in my mind is: “Can he bounce back and recover that lost confidence.” Hitting is a very large part confidence.

      I post this because on a daily basis, multiple people just dismiss him as a prospect, which I happen to believe is ignorant or just plain dumb. So, yes, I will talk about what I see as perceived ignorance. I give my opinions, and I am not always right, and progress is not linear…

      I also know that there is a good chance Vargas and/or Busch could be traded… and I am down with that if it improves the team.

      Why would I want to trade Outman? That’s just plain silly, but his swings against good LHP have been pathetic. Maybe he will improve, but history does not favor players who have bad splits at the beginning of their career!

      1. “I post this because on a daily basis. Multiple people dismiss him as a prospect, which I happen to believe is ignorant or just plain dumb. So, yes, I will talk about what I see as perceived ignorance. I give my opinions, and I am not always right, and progress is not linear…”

        How is he not a prospect at this point of his career ??? Look I want the kid to excel and meet all the expectations of the so called experts, but until he completes a least a full season that’s what he is. I would love for you to just accept that there are differing opinions and that doesn’t make everyone idiots or ignorant.

      2. It’s great that he’s a humble kid and came from a good family, but what does that have to do with him playing professional baseball?

        He has good bat to ball skills and is a polished hitter. He’s a little lacking in raw power, but maybe he can hit 20 homers over the course of a season.

        As an athlete, he lacks quickness, speed and footwork. The experiment with him at second was not successful, and it appears, with Lux in the infield, he won’t play there again. His one chance to make the roster is to prove that he can be competent in left and he has a fantastic Spring at the plate. If the Dodgers go out and get a permanent left fielder, I don’t see how he’s not trade bait.

  7. Alston platooned players a lot when he did not have a stud player at every position. Fairly played a lot of games, but he played them at two positions, first and the outfield. He played 13 games at first, 17 in center and the rest in right in 65. He actually had more home runs, 5 off of lefties than he did righties in 65, 4. He also hit .254 against LHP that year. In 66 he sunk to a .220 average against southpaws and had just 2 long balls. He only appeared in 117 games in 66. In 1966 he was in a platoon situation in RF with Al (The Bull) Ferrara.

  8. As I noted yesterday, as the roster is currently constructed, there is only room for one of Vargas or Busch on the 26 man roster.

    We haven’t seen enough of either of them at the major league level to know if they will succeed. Vargas may well be the hitter that Mark claims he is/will be. He is very slow with his footwork in the field and does not look like a major league 2B. He’s really stiff in his movements. Can he be a LF? Maybe.

    Busch seems to have more raw power and better hands in the INF. I haven’t seen enough of him to know whether he is a major league INF or not.

    No one knows if either of these guys will be a successful MLB player yet. Mark doesn’t know – he projects success for Vargas, and hopefully he’s correct, but it’s too soon to tell either way.

    I really don’t get all of the animosity and name calling. It’s infantile and bush league.

  9. You need to have Vargas have more than just 303 at bats at the major league level before you can evaluate what type of hitter he is going to be. Also, you need to take into consideration the fact that he was injured in spring training and that adversely affected his swing. As for Outman, he made 137 starts in center field last season. That is not a true platoon type situation. His road and home splits are almost even. He did hit more home runs on the road than at Dodger Stadium. I believe based on the numbers, that he will get the majority of the starts in center field. He might sit when they face a really tough lefty like Snell or Freid. I am more than positive the team has a better handle on these players than we do.

  11. vargas, outman,busch,margot, heyward,taylor, who stays? who goes? so lets say vargas tears it up in spring training, what then? still platoon him? busch rakes in spring training, where does he play? i still believe one has to go. taylor will get plenty of playing time playing some outfield, 3rd, and shortstop. could AF still ull the cord on an adames trade? lux and busch adames? i’m just playing gm. we are allowed to plat GM , right? Vargas could very well be the answer in left field, we’ll soon find out ! coud throw barnes in for good measure! lol!

    1. 1. Margot is tradable. It is possible he gets traded.

      2. If Busch and Vargas both are hot in the Spring, it’s possible that Vargas and Busch could alter the Dodger’s plan to play Betts at 2B in 2024.

      3. Maybe Heyward will become a utility guy who plays all over the OF.

      4. Maybe Outman will learn how to hit LHP better.

      5. Barnes is the least of the Dodgers’ worries. There is a growing trend in MLB that backup catchers can’t hit.

      6. There’s a lot to learn, and assuming that the Dodger’s OF will be weak is not a given.

  12. If there is a place on the diamond to hide a good hitter, it’s left field. Certainly Busch or Vargas are good enough athletes to be at least adequate out there if they hit. The position is just not that demanding. Practically any player who is good enough to make it to AAAA as an infielder can transition to left field with some practice.

    1. I remember when the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez and put him in left. Watching the highlights of some of his plays out there was actually hysterical.

      1. Yo, left field Fenway is a crap shoot for even good fielders. Odd angles, ricochets off that tin wall and fans bleating away down on you.

        Never saw a great defensive left fielder with Sox. Yoshida looked ok last season but, he got clowned a few times too.

        The Wall rules.

  13. Here’s the latest about Margot from BA:

    Margot has never hit enough to live up to the lofty hopes for him held as a prospect, but he’s an above-average defender who can play all three outfield positions and has the speed to be a threat on the basepaths. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career, compared to .244/.294/.370 against righthanders, and fits as a righthanded-hitting platoon partner with James Outman in center field. He will make $10 million in 2024 and has a $12 million team option with a $2 million buyout for 2025.

    I guess Baseball America doesn’t have a clue either.

    1. Baseball America are a bunch of morons. Even Stevie Wonder can see that.

      Outman has earned the right to start against all pitchers. If he regresses and craters against lefties, then the Dodgers address that when/if it happens. … and he wasn’t terrible against lefties. He just didn’t hit very many homers. His average was similar, and he had a fair amount of doubles.

      Again, just assuming Outman is the starting center fielder gives the team a lot more roster flexibility. Margot can just sub for Heyward and Mookie can stay at second.

      2. The 162 and the tournament (playoffs) are two different things. Over the course of 162 you need defense. In the short term you can sometimes get away with a better hitter playing a usual defensive position . Such as Adam Duvall in CF or Muncy at 2b

  14. i agree mark! i just don’t see heyward,taylor, or margot getting 75% of the starts in outfield. i was joshing about barnes! i have come to accept the fact he is there this upcoming season. after that , i really believe he becomes a coach in the dodgers organization.

  15. I will say it again. Guys with Vargas hit tool do not grow on trees.

    On the Top 100 BA Prospects, Vargas had a 65 Hit tool.

    Scouting grades have been a staple of MLB.com’s prospect coverage for years, and they generally match how clubs grade players as well. Players are graded on a 20-80 scale: 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average.

    Corbin Carrol was at 60.
    Gunnar Henderson was a 60.
    Jackson Chourio of the Brewers, who just signed an MLB long-term contract, is 60.
    Elly De La Cruz is a 40.
    Anthony Volpe is a 60.
    Jackson Holliday (2024’s #1 prospect) is a 70!

    Guys like Vargas, who has a hit tool ranked at 65, are no joke. The jokes are the guys who mock him!

    1. Fangraphs has his hit tool as a 50/60, meaning he’s currently a 50, but has a ceiling as a 60. FG rated Carroll’s hit tool as a 55/70 before he was called up. Carroll’s Future Value score was a 65 (Lux’s FV score was a 70!). Vargas’s FV rating is a 50.

      “Vargas is light on explosion and athleticism, which showed during his rookie year, but his barrel feel and feel for the zone should still make him a 2-WAR player over time.” (Outman had a 4.4 WAR year last year).

      It would be great if he developed into a solid hitter and he had a place to play (left field would be nice). I could see him hitting .270/15-25 HR/125 wRC+. The reality is: he doesn’t have a natural position, the Dodgers don’t really have a place for him to play, and, so far, he hasn’t shown he can hit at the MLB level in two seasons and 350 plate appearances. Maybe that changes.

    3. That says a lot about how unreliable these rankings are. At this point only a dumbass would be impressed by Vargas’s 65-point rating.
      Why hasn’t Vargas outperformed 60-point guys like Carrol and Henderson?
      Not only has Miguelito not outhit them, but he hasn’t come close.
      Whenever his broken fingers come up, I’m left to wonder why the Dodgers let him play instead of letting him heal. It was early in the season so there was no rush. There were 3 or 4 other guys who could have played 2B–but the brass decided it was Vargas’ job with no actual competition. (And it’s not like Vargas, with healthy fingers, showed much during his debut in ’22. )
      Well, here’s hoping that his struggles will pass soon…

    4. I’ve been considering this topic for a long time. When it was announced that Mook will play second it narrowed things.
      I believe in baseball you have pillars ( good to great players) the rest are just guys that can do one thing well
      The Dodger pillars are Mook Fred Ohtani-great and Smith very good
      Signing Freddie’s friend was out of emotion. I like Heyward but he played to his ceiling in 23 that as good as he will get

      Outman is just a guy who can’t hit LHP but our only CF candidate. Possibly Vargas should have tried CF at OKC. Louie Bobby(great) we should throw the kitchen sink at Whitesox to get him
      A long time ago Pedro Guerrero was my favorite prospect because he could flat out hit Best Dodger right handed prospect along with Mike Piazza. Garvey another Piazza was not great at catching. Garvey couldn’t play third
      Pedro was tried at 3b CF RF. Lasorda knew the big bat had to be somewhere

      I thought Busch- Vargas might platoon LF and that’s the one place you can have sub par defense

      We don’t need Teoscar(a guy). Adamas at short is much more than a guy. Chapman at 3b is not just a guy
      In fact we don’t have one outfielder who is above just being a guy

  16. Well, the fact of the matter is that we will all have to wait and see how it all shakes out in spring training. And remember, they start the season early, the 20th of March, in Seoul Korea against the Padres. Will they take 40 players to Korea? How will MLB allow the roster to be adjusted. Since it is a regular season game, they can only have 26 players. And it is almost a week before the rosters need to be finalized. The season starts in earnest on the 28th of March at Dodger Stadium when the Cardinals come in for a four-game series.

  17. I could tear apart what Mark said up top and in his posts, unfortunately I don’t have very much time today. Some here have only scratched the surface doing that and good job guys for doing that. At first (during 2022 season) it was ONLY ME that noticed things, but others are catching on and again good job guys. Others catching on should tell you something Mark. Wrong day for me to be busy. And again I like you Mark but sometimes I just shake my head.

    2. This Outman/Vargas feud is between you and Mark. Don’t use anything I’ve written today to validate your position or to give you an I-Told-You-So moment you constantly crave.

      1. dodgerpatch

        I’m not going to use what you wrote. If I even write anything.

        What you think is “I told you so” was a reaction on my part. And the “I told you so” that you call it is done and I don’t crave it.

        And again I like Mark, but…….

  18. I don’t see why all the animosity on both sides. So Mark likes Vargas more than Outman. Others like Outman more. Personally I think Busch has the best bat. Who cares? Which one of us is getting paid for our baseball acumen? 2024 will answer all these questions. Move on to another topic!

  19. i’ve got the perfect solution! trade vargas, outman, stone, and cartaya tothe. white sox for Robert!! there problems solved! yrah mark and ol bear, i know sox ain’t going to trade robert. but you gotta amit it would stop the arguing about vargas and outman. well at least it would be sox fans arguing over them!!

    1. Yes, It probably would. Personally, I am taking a wait and see attitude towards both. I saw more good things from Outman, especially when he battled himself out of his early season blahs and became a solid contributor on the field. He also improved a lot as a defender. I also believe Vargas was impacted by his hand injuries during spring training. He was not 100 percent, and it affected his performance. Let’s see how he plays when totally healthy. This ongoing debate also shows that Dodger fans are not the most patient bunch.

  20. wonder if manny ramirez is in shape? lousy left fielder but a damn good right handed hitter!!

  21. I used to let some of the dumbass things Mark has to say get me so angry and more so that he refuses to hear anything from another point of view and if you don’t see it his way your a idiot moron but I learned quick letting that anger fest up in me wasn’t somewhere I wanted to be. I can definitely understand how hondo and others feel like they do. On another note just how good a team do we have. Don’t believe a super team keep hearing people say. But not real far off. Gosh I can’t wait for spring to get here

  22. A couple young good fielding. Good hitting outfielders who don’t need platooning and a another front end starter make it real hard not arguing being called a super team.

  23. I wish this would have started……
    “unfortunately I don’t have very much time today.”

    SIGH!

  24. Dodgerpatch said:

    “ It’s great that he’s a humble kid and came from a good family, but what does that have to do with him playing professional baseball?”

    It has a lot to do with playing professional baseball. There is a reason there are a lot of children of former players who’ve been successful at pro sports. You can’t tell me the Manning brothers would have all those SB rings if they were raised by an alcoholic single mother. Talent and athleticism are a prerequisite of being a pro athlete. But they aren’t enough on their own. It takes hard work, dedication and intangibles to be successful. Being a humble person from a good family (and having a father who is a legendary Cuban baseball player) are major assets. They also don’t guarantee success, but those intangibles make success a lot more likely.

    I have been a baseball stat geek for 30 years. My first subscription to The Society of American Baseball Research was in 1993. I live, breath and eat stats. But in the many years I attended minor league games (hundreds in the last 10 years) I have learned that stats only tell part of the story. Some things you can only discern with your eyes and, to a degree, your instincts. I have become a bit prejudice when it comes to baseball prospects. Not in terms of race and religion but in terms of my impression when I have met young ballplayers. I have noticed a pattern when it comes to prospects that succeed verses many who fail. Being an arrogant asshole is a commonality that I have seen in many failed prospects who were once highly touted.

    I know Mark was once really high on Verdugo. But I remember the day my son and I met him. We were in Rancho and my son was getting a Dodger helmet signed by the whole team. My impression of Verdugo was that he was an arrogant, wannabe Eminem groupie who spent half his signing bonus on the bling around his neck and the god awful hair styles he frequently changed. He was, to put it simply, an asshat. I couldn’t deny his ability on the field. But he was obnoxious and annoying in our brief interactions.

    Yadier Alvarez, similar.

    Joe Adell playing for the Angels A ball affiliate was one of the biggest jerks in the CA league. By a wide margin. Would never sign for kids. And did so in the rudest way possible. He put up monster numbers, no doubt. But he’s played very poorly against MLB competition. Brandon Marsh, on the other hand, was one of the coolest people my son ever got to know. His numbers were not nearly as impressive as Adell’s. But he was great to fans and always seemed like he was enjoying every minute of playing pro baseball. He’d give my son crap for wearing a Quakes shirt and a 66ers hat. He, unlike Adell, has become a solid MLB CFer. And I fully believe it has ti do with his character and attitude. Adell has all the talent in the world. But he’s an arrogant jerk. And I think that is a major factor in his disappointing performance in MLB.

    My son got to know Miguel Vargas when he was in Rancho. He was the best player in the team. But he was also the nicest guy in the world. He’d hang out outside the locker room door and mingle with fans while he was waiting for his best friend Jacob Amaya to come out. Sign any autograph for any kid and enjoyed talking about what happened in the game with fans. His ability and talent show in his stats. But his confidence, poise and graciousness were well beyond his teenage years (at the time). You can’t tell me that personal character doesn’t play a role. I believe there is a reason Verdugo has been traded twice and hasn’t reached his potential. And it’s not because of lack of talent. He’s a tool.

    Some things you can only learn with your eyes and intuition. And Vargas has intangibles that will play a factor in his performance. It doesn’t guarantee he will live up to his potential. But it makes it much more likely. In my opinion.

    If I was a betting man, I’d bet on the non asshats every time.

    Busch and Outman skipped Rancho. So I didn’t have the opportune to meet either of them. So I have no insight. But I’ve met Miguel. I believe he has what it takes to be successful. Even if he struggled last year.

    Just MHO.

    1. “And Vargas has intangibles that will play a factor in his performance. It doesn’t guarantee he will live up to his potential. But it makes it much more likely. In my opinion.”

      This is fair.

      Character matters in terms of a player’s development, for sure. It’s hard to quantify, though, and even harder to predict how character -as vague as that description is – translates to a success on the field. Let’s just say it’s tangentially associated with being a good player. It’s why AF was wise to walk away from the Aroldis Chapman deal, shipped off Verdugo, didn’t sign Manny, and won’t be in on Pham or Anderson or Stroman.

      I guess why I wrote what I did is because Mark’s anecdotes and stories about what a good guy Vargas is were just that – anecdotes and stories about what a good guy he is.

      To be clear, I’m not really knocking Vargas. I just think Mark gets a notion in his head (Lux can’t play SS, Verdugo will hit like Gwynn, Outman is a 4th outfielder, Vargas yada yada) and belabors the point. I realize he’s probably also trolling Eric, but that back and forth is becoming tedious, too.

      1. I’m not sure why Mark’s shtick gets to people. I don’t mind it. I don’t always agree with his opinions. But maybe it’s just that my group of friends perpetually talks shit. Its tongue in cheek. But if somebody takes offense that just means the ribbing is going to be turned up a notch, or 12.

        I was hanging out with my ragtag group of friends a couple weeks ago. Age ranges from 35 to 75. I was explaining how I hurt my shoulder while lifting a heavy trash bag. I chose my words poorly. I said “I was reaching around awkwardly and felt something give”.

        Within 1/2 second a buddy blurts out “Dude, we don’t want to know details about your side hustles”

        I think everybody needs to relax. We’re talking about baseball. Not negotiating peace in the Middle East. The stakes aren’t meaningful. We should all just have fun with it.

        1. Totally agree Jayne. I have met Mark on two occasions, and you were there for one of them at a Quakes game we all attended. Mark knows the game, and he is passionate about the team. He is also a businessman who takes time from his business to run what I believe is one of the better blogs in Dodger land. Some will say I am biased because I also write for the site. Nothing could be further from the truth. Mark and I started out arguing over the Grandal trade back when a lot of people were posting on Scott’s site. A couple of the posters here asked him to invite me over from Scott’s site after it started to lose almost all of it’s readership. I started writing for the site in August of 2020. That was after I had done a story for another site, Mark read it and felt I could contribute since I love the team’s history so much. I also do not agree with him all of the time, but I also know from spending time with him that deep down inside, he is a pooh bear.

        2. Oh, Mark doesn’t really bother me. I get him. He dishes it out. Sometimes I just feel like dishing it back. There’s no hard feelings on my part. I doubt there is with him.

          In the grand scheme of things, Outman vs. Vargas means nothing. It’s just a really good time to be a Dodger fan.

    2. Great comment Jayne. I always find your posts to be worth the read.

      I wonder if Adell is still a jerk or if his lack of success has made him a wee bit more humble.

      1. He seemed to have improved last year. But an injury derailed his season. He has immense talent. His struggles will either drive him or sink him.

        One of my mentors always told me. “Be humble or be humbled. It’s one or the other”.

  25. There are reports that the Nats are looking for a left handed power bat. Busch and others to the Nats for Thomas?

  26. I think both of those guys are expendable, not necessarily because the Dodgers have become disillusioned with them or that they don’t have potential, but because they’re blocked and are a depreciating asset if they stay stuck in AAA.

  27. Both Busch & Vargas may yet prove themselves as MLB players, many in-the-know still like their positives. But yes, the Betts-to-2B move clearly indicates a negative change with the Fo thinking on Vargas from last year to this year. Maybe they think he can play LF, …or maybe not.

    1. Rojas won’t be on the team

      I’m more concerned about Muncy defense at 3b than anything
      We had enough before Ohtani
      Yama
      And 877Glasnow
      to win the West

      Who will play LF?
      Ans: the one who hits

      Short?
      Ans: the one who fields

      3b?
      Should be the one who fields. Vargas over Muncy
      Chapman over Vargas

  30. BJD,

    I suggest that you go back to Dodger Way. They pander to morons. You’ll love it there.

    I do have to admit that you make eloquent use of the English Language (along with much hyperbole) to say very little. Someone must be paying you by the word!

    I liked it for a couple of minutes but now find it boring!

    If I monetized LADT like Dodger Way, I would write bullshit too that makes the morons return, but don’t confuse me with someone who gives a fuck!

    …. and I don’t do it for the money. Sometimes I wonder why I do it when I have to deal with morons.

  31. As much fun as it is to watch the back and forth about who is this or who is that. Nobody knows how anyone will perform in 2024 Outman may crater Vargas or Busch may meet their respective projections. They all 3 might be all stars or not. As Dodgerrick has pointed out there is one opening on the 26 man roster.

    That last spot has many options. Taylor the everyday left fielder even though the team is better served with him as a utility man. An open competition between Busch and Vargas for the left field job with the loser back to AAA and trade deadline capital. Sign a full time left field option with Busch and Vargas trade capital.

    Until they get to opening day with their roster nobody knows what to expect. The only thing I know for sure is I’m looking forward to enjoying the ride.

    One thing about platoons is I believe the Yankees of the 50’s used quite a few under Stengel. Yes Ron Fairly and Willie Davis were my favorite players.

  32. Mark makes a bit of hash explaning the difference between OBP and OPS. By now I think 98% of us understand that OPS is simply the on-base percentage and slugging percentage added together. (On-base Plus Slugging.) It’s a great stat in part because it exalts on-base percentage over batting average. It respects the adage, “a walk is as good as a hit.”
    Then Mark writes: “So, would you rather have a player with a .664 OPS and a .353 OB% (James Outman) or a player with a .340 OB% but a .804 OPS (Max Muncy) against LHP?”
    Say what?
    I guess that Mark is trying to argue against my contention that it would make more sense to platoon Max than
    Outman. Mark would have a good case if his data was correct.
    He’s right about Outman’s stats in ’23.
    But his stats for Max are way, way, way off the mark. Not sure where they come from, but they certainly don’t reflect Max’s performance in ’23.
    Max’s OPS against lefties was not .804, but .641. His OBP was not .340, but .263. He still hit some homers but his production against lefties was not good at all. The good news is that he crushed righties with an OPS of .881 and OBP of .363. So these splits suggest that perhaps Taylor or Vargas should occasionally replace Max against lefties. (Taylor, I assume, would also provide better defense.) Taylor had a .795 OPS against lefties in ’23.
    Or maybe Will Smith should get a chance to play 3B.
    That’s an idea we used to kick around a lot.

    1. I think he was using his overall numbers in 23 which were a .333 OBP and an OPS of .808. His OPS+ was 115. Outman’s overall stats in 23 were a .353 OBP and an OPS of .790. Much closer to Max than the other stat shows. Mark’s biggest peeve it seems is Outman’s lack of power against lefties. He hit one homer. BUT: He hit .254 against LHP., A higher mark than he had against RHP, .247. His OBP against LHP last year was .357. Which was .006 higher than against RHP. James’s OPS+ was 112. So he was a lot closer to Max than one would think. But because of his power, Muncy is not going to be platooned. If he hit’s closer to his career average than what he has the last two years, he is a much more dangerous hitter. Most of the vitriol against Max is because of his glove. Fans perceive him as a weak link in the defense at third. Maybe so, but he is adequate over there and he will win more games with his bat than he loses with his glove. Outman played almost every day last season. He will sit against tough lefties but get chances against others. One last stat. Muncy was a 2.6 WAR player last season. Outman’s WAR was 3.3.

  33. Three things that can undermine an otherwise great team

    1. A bad defensive 3b

    2. Lack of a good closer

    3. A poor defensive 3b

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