Sooner or Later?

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1. Too many trades

2. I would bet on Lee over Busch and Vargas.
   Lee’s best friend, it’s been said, is the Padres’ Ha-Seong Kim, who has been excellent. Pretty sure Lee is coming over with a better track record and a better understanding of what to expect.
   And this is important: Lee’s contract guarantees that he’ll have every opportunity to prove himself. Will the Dodgers give Vargas or Busch that chance? It might have to be another team.
   That said, I’m glad the Dodgers didn’t sign Lee. The Giants need to take the risk, and the Dodgers don’t. Outman is fine in CF, and DeLuca, Busch and Vargas can cover LF. In terms of position players, I think the Dodgers would be fine going with the current roster–with Lux at SS and some committee in LF. If AF decides against the committee approach, there are various proven free agent outfielders he could sign or trade for.
   But AF does need to fix the rotation.

   1. Duke Not Snider –

      I agree that AF’s priority has to be the starting pitching. Give Vargas, Busch and DeLuca the chance to take LF and if none work out look for right-hand hitting LF at the All Star break.

      With Ohtani on the team now, I think there is going to be higher expectations from the Dodger fan base for a 2024 championship than we have seen in a long time.

      Enjoy reading your thoughful comments on LADT.

3. Ya if anyone is willing to bet on 2024 Vargas/Busch over Jung Hoo Lee, I’m happy to take that bet.

   I’m a Dodger fan, but I’m not blind. What’s next, Aaron Judge vs Jason Heyward??

   1. Vargas and Busch are going to make about $800,000 each this year, if they play exclusively in the MLB, less if they also play in AAA. Lee is guaranteed $113 million plus a $19 million posting fee for a total investment of $132 million by the Giants. An average cost of $22 million per year for Lee.
      Both Vargas and Busch have proven they can hit in AAA, and Busch was the MVP in the PCL last year with an OPS of 1,049, and 27 HR in 390 at bats. Busch struggled in his 72 MLB at bats last year, but he excelled when sent back to AAA. In the KBO, Lee had an OPS of 861 last year while hitting an impressive 318 with OBP of 406. But he only hit 6 HR in 330 at bats in the KBO.
      The KBO is a much lower level of competition than the MLB, and I am not sure how it compares to AAA. Lee is a much better outfielder and athlete than Busch. But it would not surprise me if Busch or Vargas hit for a better OPS in the MLB next year than Lee, whether for the Dodgers or another team. And at a cost of $800,000 compared to $22 million for Lee.

4. Adames is this season’s Nolan Areanado. Gavin Lux is fine at shortstop, far cheaper, and controllable.

   The Dodgers need pitching, not a shortstop, focus on what you need, not on what you desire. Bill Russell played SS for the Dodgers on a lot of great LA teams. Lux will be fine.

   Yamamoto would be a great pick-up. Word is Cohen will outbid everyone, but why would anyone want to play for the Mets. Money, of course. But that’s probably the only reason. They throw around money, lots of it, but do they actually have a plan. They want to become the Dodgers of the east coast. Why not play for the real deal? Besides, they signed some big stars, things went bad and they ate a lot of money trading them.

   Glasnow could be a great pick-up, probably less prospects involved in a trade. Cease would cost more in prospect capital. As for Arozarena, you would block Vargas and many in the Dodger organization think he’ll become an exceptional hitter. Right hand bat, low cost.

   In no scenario, should the Dodgers trade Miller, Pepiot or Sheehan. They need the young starters as they move into the future.

5. Tyler Glasnow is also 2-6 with a 5.72 ERA in October, so he’ll fit right in!!!!

   1. Fit right in with who? Not sure who you are trying to bash here….

      1. Good replacement for Lance Lynn?

6. According to rosenthal dodgers are deep in talks with Rays to get glasnow and Margot for DeLuca and Pepiot. I really hope they don’t trade pepiot that will just create another hole in the rotation.

   1. Arozarena coming with them…..

   2. I was going to post the same thing. Glasnow has passed 100 innings twice in eight years. Why would we think he would be a lot better after 30? Margot is truly unimpressive and almost thirty. So trade Pepiot, a pitcher already in our rotation, for another pitcher to take his place in the rotation- zero gain, $25 million annual salary added, and a good chance of injury. Then we trade Deluca, who still have a chance to get better, for an older version of him (Margot) who we know is not going to get better. In the end we have the same number of pitchers in the rotation, an older and less effective back-up outfielder, we got older and spend a lot more money.

      1. Despite what Stalin thought, quantity is not a quality when it comes to starting pitching.

7. If they got Arozarena instead of Margot I kind of like the deal. Swapping Glasnow for Pepiot is a + but the Dodgers would still need additional SP. Arozarena solves our need for a RH hitting LF, but Margot is a much more expensive DeLuca in my opinion.

   Bottom line…Arozarena, yes make the deal. Margot, no thanks unless there is something else.

   1. Get Randy in a big market….HE WILL THRIVE

8. Glasnow is another rental. I am not into trading a talent like Pepiot for a rental. Trade some pitcher lower on the totem pole. As for Margot, no power, career OPS under .800. Career on base is just barely over .300. 29 years old, decent defender, but definitely not a difference maker. Arozarena at least can hit you some home runs. If you are going to trade prospects, get a player you do not have to sign again the next year unless it is someone really good like Burnes, but no to Adames. Glasnow has a history of injury, he has one really good season, last year. He is not durable and he damn sure is no innings eater. Margot comes with a buyout of 2 mil after the year along with his 10 million dollar salary.

9. What does it matter who we get or don’t get? Already easily got the talent to almost guarantee making playoffs and from there don’t matter who we get or don’t because it’s just a matter of where dice fall in the crapshoot where there is no determining which team is the champion. Only which is the luckiest

   1. Michael – hope you are good.

      You might wanna go back to yesterday and read DodgerRick’s excellent Post summarising exactly this topic (I also enjoyed his Mortality Post from a few days ago).

10. Glasnow – Pepiot = 0 added to the rotation. Some people struggle with math.

    54 million – 25 million = 29 million to actually ADD to the rotation.

    1. But Eric, what about the work ethic of people of Scottish descent?!???!?!?

       1. They are all drunkards… I tell you!

          1. Was out in Glasgow on Saturday night.

             It’s a great night out.

          2. That wasn’t directed at you Mark. It was just a general statement that you didn’t mention.

11. This morning I wrote:

    What are the odds that LF for the Dodgers (Vargas or Busch) produces a better OPS than Lee?

    I think some of you think I was predicting that Vargas or Busch would be better than Lee. I was not. However, I have spent several years watching them in the minors, and I am certain I have watched more games than most of you… probably a whole lot more!

    My point is that both of these guys are legitimate prospects whom I believe will be good MLB players. They need an opportunity, and while I have seen Vargas and Busch play in well over 100 games, I have only seen highlights of Lee… which is probably the same as you… except that you have probably only seen highlights of Busch and Vargas in MiLB as well.

    It cracks me up when people say, “I knew Will Smith was going to be good!” NO, YOU DIDN’T – YOU NEVER REALLY SAW HIM or you would not say that.

    You learn a lot by watching MiLB games and all I am saying is that Vargas and Busch are a lot better than many of you are giving them credit for and yet, you would still prefer Lee because of what?

    1. Busch had a great year in OKC with OPS of 1049, 27 HR and league MVP. Vargas has hit his whole life before getting hurt last year with a career average of 310 in minors. And he just turned 24 in November. While both struggled in MLB last year, they have bright futures. And they make the MLB minimum, while the Giants spent $132 million including the posting fee for Lee for 6 years.

    2. Didn’t need to see Smith play to call it right and that’s not the only one I’ve called right. There’s something that others don’t consider.

       Why Lee? .340/.407/.491/.898 career. Enough said.

       1. Are you a drummer? Or are you banging somebody else’s?

12. No way am I trading Pepiot, I see him as a ceiling as #2 or #3 . Wouldn’t mind Glasnow but not for Pepiot. Not a fan of Margot or Randy Arozarena.

13. Some of you are really something. Since when RPepiot is a reasonable fascimile of Glassnow? Last year I ask Mark what will a TGlasnow and WFranco trade cost the Dodgers and Mark responded : at least BMiller, GStone, MBusch, DCartaya & GLux.

    RPepiot is still a pitcher that needs an opener. He also was out injured 4 months in his first full year. I will insist in RArozarena.

    1. There is a terribly interesting, yet depressing, bit of news out there from Buster Posey. It basically revolves around the idea that San Francisco is in such dire condition with regard to crime, drugs, indecency, that players may not want to go there. What a tragic current environment for a glorious city.

       1. Glorious City??? Maybe in 1950

       2. There’s a really good article in The Athletic on the subject.
          https://theathletic.com/5133154/2023/12/12/giants-shohei-ohtani-offer-buster-posey/

          Posey is apparently now a “part owner” of the Giants and said that he moved his family back to the Bay Area from Georgia in part to show that it’s still a good place to live.

          Here’s an excerpt:
          “Something I think is noteworthy, something that unfortunately keeps popping up from players and even the players’ wives is there’s a bit of an uneasiness with the city itself, as far as the state of the city, with crime, with drugs,” Posey said. “Whether that’s all completely fair or not, perception is reality. It’s a frustrating cycle, I think, and not just with baseball. Baseball is secondary to life and the important things in life. But as far as a free-agent pursuit goes, I have seen that it does affect things.”

          Honestly, I live in NorCal and have since 1971. We have thought of SF as “Baghdad by the Bay” for as long as I can remember. I went to a jazz club there earlier this year in the Tenderloin. Obviously not a good situation. If you were a multi-millionaire and could live anywhere you wanted to, would you live there?

          On another subject, The Athletic reports that Mookie, Freddie and Shohei were there to meet with Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday.

          1. I go there all the time for work. I’d say in the past 6 to 7 years it’s really gotten bad.

             1. My wife is from SF. We have been married 27 years and you are right. In the past 6-8 years it has become a shithole. She says, “They ruined my city!”

          2. Biscuits and Blues? It’s an awesome jazz club. The house saxophonist Clark is phenomenal!

    2. The point is this, I am not trading a guy who is his age for a rental. He showed enough when he was on the mound for me to want to keep him. Both Glasnow and Margot are rentals. I am not treading that guy for a rental unless that pitcher actually makes the rotation better. Glasnow is an injury risk. Margot can’t hit for power or average.

14. Why would AF accept Margot as part of the Glasnow trade? It seems like he would be to the outfield like Rojas was to the infield; decent defense; no bat. Dodgers need a decent hitter out there. Anyone?

    1. In free agency the only one left with a good bat is Rhys Hoskins. And your comparison of Margot and Rojas is right, but Margot is a platoon player that’s above average, but not good against LHP. I’ll pass just like you and if you add Glasnow’s salary plus Margot, Heyward and Kelly salaries the remaining money in the 100 million buget would be 3 million and you lose players in the trade too.

       1. DRaysBay site is posting that it’s pretty much a done deal.

          1. Fake news. It is not a done deal.

15. The Glasnow-to-LAD rumor feels like a media feint to leverage something else–whether it’s the Dodgers, Rays, or some other team doing the “feinting.” I just don’t see the appeal of acquiring an oft-injured SP for what the Rays are asking.

    1. It’s a stupid deal if it goes through.A one year broken down rental pitcher for Pepiot is a no go.

16. FWIW, Mark is totally on point in this article.

17. Dodgers Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto On Tuesday
    By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2023 at 1:38pm CDT

    Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were all present at Dodger Stadium yesterday for the team’s recruitment pitch to Yamamoto, per Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Dorsey tweets that Will Smith, Yamamoto’s potential battery mate if he signs in Los Angeles, was also present.

18. The Dodgers and right-hander Daniel Hudson have agreed to reunite on a minor league deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The righty will earn $2MM if he cracks the roster, with another $2MM available via incentives.

    Good sign ! AF doin what he does.

    1. 2-4 million for Hudson is a way better deal than 8 million for Kelly. Hudson is a better pitcher than Kelly. 8 million wasted that could have gone elsewhere.

19. Put me down as a no on trading Pepiot.
    You see the shoulders on that guy ,he looks like he could turn into a real horse
    Oblique injuries are tricky , far as I know he hasn’t had any arm or shoulder problems
    Glasnow can’t help you if he’s not on the field, and let’s face it he has had a history of that
    I don’t agree with the mad dog very often but he’s dead right on glasnow , when he says that guy doesn’t scare me

    1. Last sentence should have read, as a pitcher in the playoffs that guy doesn’t scare me

20. The Los Angeles Dodgers scheduled Shohei Ohtani’s introductory press conference at Dodger Stadium for 3 p.m. PT on Thursday afternoon. When taking into account time zone changes, Ohtani’s first appearance as a member of the Dodgers is taking place at 8 a.m. in Japan.

    Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is going to accompany Ohtani in the center field plaza. It’s going to be at least Ohtani’s third trip to Dodger Stadium in December.

    I believe the press conference will be carried on the MLB network.

21. From Ken Rosenthal, re Ohtani’s contract:

    Contract also states, “If specific change in Dodger personnel, player may opt out of contract at end of season the change occurs.” Not known at present who this refers to.

    1. It’s gotta be Friedman, right?

       1. Right

    2. Yamammoto

       1. Haha

22. i would like glasnow, but not for pepiot! i would not mind arozarena, not margot. arozarena is an everyday player. margot would be another damn platoon player! adding glasnow and imanaga works for me. like mark said the other day., he’s bound to be healthy someday! 150 innings from him would be perfect. with walker coming back and a healthy kershaw later in the season, ( he will be back all you haters!) keep lux for now and let’s roll!

    1. Good plan Dodger dad!

23. I had not had the chance to write that I was very happy with the Ohtani signing,, and then very impressed with the deferrals of salary, giving the Dodgers the ability to sign some top pitchers, very important.

    I did not like the Kelly signing, not for that price. The Dodgers have a sentimentality about bringing players back. Maybe a few other franchises do, too, but we are notable in that. I didn’t want Kelly, or Hernandez, neither did anything after they left here, and then didn’t do too much when here. But there they are, at least Kelly is.

    As to trying to get elite pitching, I agree with others here that Glasnow is not what we want, particularly at the price. I like DeLuca, he seems to have the skills and temperament of a star, though of course it is just a hunch so far. I can see him becoming a star, where five years from now, we wish we had not traded him. I’d rather have him than Outman. Pepiot has gotten some high praise from a few baseball people.

    I do realize that you have to give up something to get something. But we need to have an ace starter, because in short playoff series, it’s mano a mano against the other team’s ace. The Dodgers had the best pitcher in baseball in 1963 and 1965, in Koufax,; and another Hall of Famer in Drysdale,; and with teams whose lineups were pretty good in ’63, and not very good in ’65, we won two world titles. In ’88, we had the best pitcher that year, and he dominated the better lineups he faced.

    I don’t want to see us win 105 games, and then get outmatched by Strider or Gallen or Nola. Yamamoto might be that great pitcher. Glasnow is not. Look around some more,, before letting TB pull off another great trade, where they fleece a richer franchise.

24. Per MLBTradeRumors:

    Ohtani, who will officially be introduced by the Dodgers at a news conference on Thursday, would be allowed to terminate his deal if Mark Walter no longer is controlling owner or president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman no longer is with the team, the person said. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the terms were not announced.

    https://apnews.com/article/shohei-otani-dodgers-3fe44e39efc42674f75b5233cc01b149?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Sports&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

25. Aparicio was perhaps the best base stealer before Maury came along.
    Versailles won two gold gloves and won the MVP in 1965, mostly on the strength of an amazing second half that led the Twins to the AL title. One of the more surprising MVPs. I was happy when the Dodgers got him later in his career. He was good but the MVP year was a real outlier.

26. A lot of cold water being tossed on the Arozarena notion.
    Margot? I can see why the Rays want to dump his $10 million salary. Good glove, but his offensive stats are pretty meh.
    Glasnow could be very good… and he could go down with an injury. He threw 120 innings last season–and that’s the most he has ever thrown.
    Nice to hear that Shohei joined Mookie, Freddie and Will Smith in wooing Yamamoto.
    Brewers are supposedly reluctant to trade Burnes, but perhaps they are being coy and hoping for an offer they can’t refuse.

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