Some baseball fans have the erroneous belief that old-school managers like Bruce Bochy manage with their gut, use the eye test, and don’t rely on analytics. If you really think that… well, I am sorry… for your misconception. It simply ain’t true. It’s your own narrative, but you will find that a vast percentage of Bochy’s moves are what sabermetrics indicate.
I have seen him take pitchers out too early and leave them in too long… even in the World Series. Many pitchers he has brought in have gotten lit up, and many hitters have struck out. It’s absurd to think he goes against analytics. He has also been lucky that he didn’t have to manage the best pitcher in the past 15 years… who happens to blow up at inopportune times in the playoffs. Bruce Bochy is a very good manager who has had the good fortune of having some players actually hit better in the payoffs and pitch better in the playoffs than in the regular season. Doc might be a genius if he had MadBum as well.
Bochy and other old-school managers fit well with analytics and sabermetrics. But narratives in your head are hard to change. Give me some examples where Bochy went against analytics and succeeded. You can do that with Roberts and any other manager, too… but you can’t name many. Statistics and analytics have been part of the game for eons – we just understand it better now… and yes, Bruce Bochy is a very good manager.
Now, Think About This.
Congratulations to Ronald Acuna, Jr. for the unanamious MVP!
Ronald Acuna, Jr. had a strikeout percentage of 11.4% in 2023 on his way to an MVP Award. In 2021 and 2022, it was 23.6%. In 2020, it was 29.7%. In 2019, he struck out 188 times, but in 2023, he struck out 84 times! By doing this, he increased his BA by 71 points, his OB% by 65 points, and his OPS by a whopping 248 points! This is a classic example of why you should not put all your faith in stats. It also shows what happens when a player sets out to cut down their strikeouts and increase their walk rates consciously.
Do you think Ronald Acuna, Jr. is the only player who can do that? I don’t! I think it takes a lot of hard work, a great deal of persistence and determination, and a plan. He evidently had all of that! So, my question is. “Can other players do that?” Could James Outman, Willy Adames, Max Muncy, and others make some adjustments? Maybe they don’t have to cut down their strikeouts by 50%, but what if they cut that number by 15 or 20% and also increased their walk rate by half that? That would be huge! Stats show you what Adames and Outman were… but not what they could be. Maybe they will never be that… but then again… maybe they can.
Who is Ricky Vanasco?
The 25-year-old Vanasco has spent most of his career in the Rangers organization, but in June, the Dodgers traded Luis Valdez for him. Once regarded as one of the more promising pitchers in the Rangers system, repeated health troubles have slowed his career. Vanasco posted an outstanding 1.81 ERA in 11 starts back in 2019 but didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021, and spent significant time on the minor league injured list in 2023.
When healthy, however, Vanasco pitched quite well in the Dodgers’ system. In fact, after being removed from the team’s 40-man roster, Vanasco logged 28 innings between Double-A and Triple-A while pitching with a 0.64 ERA with a 42-to-10 K/BB ratio (36.5% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate). That showing was apparently enough for the Dodgers to offer up a big-league deal in order to keep him in the system. He is on the 40-man roster, and I expect him to make the team at some point next year.
Ricky can hit triple digits, but in relief, he can easily stay in the high 90s, and he has a very good power curve. He is 6′ 3″ and 180 pounds. The Dodgers are trying to teach him a cutter or a better grip on his slider, but he is another power arm, along with JP Feyereisen, who will likely see time in the bullpen inn 2024, especially if (as expected) the Dodgers lose Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller).
I like how the Dodgers targeted Vanasco and helped polished his game. Yes, he will likely step into the bullpen spot that Brasier or Shelby Miller vacates.
The Dodgers could bring one or both back, but they could get very nice offers elsewhere. The Dodgers just have a knack for finding budget BP guys on the scrap heap and getting the most of them.
Treinen will also be back, so off the top of my head the presumptive Opening Day BP looks like Phillips, Graterol, Treinen, Vanasco and Hurt from the right side, Vesia and Ferguson from the left, and maybe Grove as the swingman. Rooting for lefty Victor Gonzales to bounce back, and maybe Ronan Kopp to take a big step forward, since he’s also a lefty. Who am I forgetting? Is Yency Almonte still under contract?
Speaking of relievers, the Braves just traded Soroka and FOUR other guys to the White Sox for lefty Aaron Bummer. The move opens up spots on the Braves’ 40-man roster so Atlanta should stay busy. Does this sound like the kind of move AF might make? Not to me. The Braves do things differently, but they do it well.
Today is non-tender day. The Dodgers have three strong candidates to be non-tendered. Almonte, Hudson and Yarbrough. We should know by the end of the day. Roster at 39 right now. Non-tender those three and it is 36. Wiggle room.
Gonzalez got a little better at the end of the year, but he really struggled early. He looked out of shape during spring training. I am wondering if they have him on some kind of nutritional program.
Vanasco looks a little like Grove on the mound. Similar delivery.
Braves traded 5 guys to get Bummer from the White Sox, including Mike Soroka. A couple of years ago, he looked like a permanent part of Atlanta’s rotation. Acuna wins the MVP. He deserved it. Had Mookie not gone in the tank in September, it might have been a much closer vote. Ohtani was unanimous in the AL.
Yardbarker said the six players the Dodgers should target in free agency are Ohtani, the two Japanese pitchers, Yamamoto and Imanaga, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Blake Snell. Mark, on MLB network during Brian Kenny’s show the other day, Kenny finally admitted that analytics don’t always add up. He also said several times during the World Series and playoffs, Bochy went against what analytics told him. Sometimes he does go by gut feelings.
Yes he does and so does Doc but the same people who criticize him for analytics berate him when he doesn’t.
They are always right in their mind.
Remember, analytics are just kind of like odds. If you go agisint the Vegas odds a lot, you will get burned. But they are falliable.
Kenny is the most outspoken guy for analytics. He totally pooh-poohs the old-style approach. One reason I can’t watch more than a couple of minutes of his shows.
Managers don’t produce analytics, the nerd squad in the well staffed analytics department does. Managers are handed a daily data sheet with the odds for every foreseeable matchup against today’s opponent and told have at it. It’s still my opinion that the most successful managers are the ones that have the best players on the field.
Exactly.
BANG!
Joe Torre, case in point
“Remember, analytics are just kind of like odds. If you go agisint the Vegas odds a lot, you will get burned. But they are falliable.”
Yes, stats are odds and I like odds, that’s why I rely on stats heavily. And yes they are fallible and I’ve known that all along. So why do you ALWAYS get on my case when I bring up stats since you post stats too.
Vanasco is the type of pitcher who could pay big dividends for the Dodgers.
I think when it comes to in game management, Roberts probably relies more on feel, sense or gut (pick one).
Can’t overanalyze the moment. Make the call and hope the player delivers. Some times they do, some times they don’t. No Magic to it.
Kenny is right, things don’t always line up.
Okay, if the Dodgers acquire all the players on Yardbarker’s list, probably makes for a great winter. But being realistic, they presented the pool, now which players do the Dodgers pursue?
Yes to Ohtani. Imanaga gives them the lefty, no to Chapman and Hernandez, then there is Snell. I like Snell, but he’s costly and tends to rise and fall at times. Still … nah, can’t see them doing it. There is Nola, but I don’t think he’s in the cards for the Dodgers. Maybe a big trade. I can see Friedman doing a deal.
Oh, what the heck, just sign the two Japanese pitchers and Ohtani. Let the young guys take care of the rest.
Crank up the international sponsorship, merchandising and advertising machine. Let it roll.
Not sure I would want to make a trade that means you have to carry contracts the other team wants to unload. Sounds like the deal the Dodgers did with Boston years ago. Now, if Yelich was the Yelich of old, you got a deal.
I splurged and got myself a Christmas present early. I bought a new Fender LT-50 guitar amp. Has 30 presets and you can download more from Fender’s web site. 30 is plenty for me. Playing country, I do not use effects all that much. I do like the phase shifter when playing Waylon’s ” I Don’t Think Hank Done it That Way.” I think the Dodgers non-tender, Hudson, Almonte and Yarbrough, although I really like Yarbrough. I think the job he did for the Dodgers after the trade was very good. Dodgers signed Eduardo Salazar to a minor league deal. RHP from the Reds organization. Brewers exploring a Brandon Woodruff trade. He might not pitch until mid-season.
Woodruff – won’t pitch until mid-season at the earliest. More likely to not pitch at all this year. Shoulder surgeries are not easy to come back from quickly.
I hope AF isn’t considering a trade for him because that would involve paying his 2024 salary which is going to be about $11MM and being lucky to have him for a few weeks.
He’s a free agent after the 2024 season, so I just can’t see why any GM would trade for him. He’s much more likely to be non-tendered today in my opinion.
I think that is what will happen. Yonny Hernandez signed a minor league deal with the Brewers.
More on this, it comes from Morosi on MLB.com:
The Brewers are discussing Brandon Woodruff in trade conversations with multiple teams, as I reported today.
Woodruff will miss the start of ’24 after undergoing shoulder surgery, but teams see value in (a) having him for 2nd half and (b) QO value after ’24.
As with everyone else here, I assume that I know more than GM’s do.
I don’t think he’ll be back for half a season. If he’s lucky maybe September.
To me, the pick you get for having someone sign a player you’ve QO’d is not worth 11 mil. JMO.
I don’t think the Brewers are likely to kick in much salary to move him because they could just non-tender him and be off the hook completely. Maybe I’m missing something here. Wouldn’t be the first time.
AF loves these plays
I have never been able to get along with SS amps. At my age I have way too many amps that I’ve accumulated through the years. Currently playing a wet/dry setup with a Mesa Fillmore 50 and a 64′ Princeton Reverb. Sometimes I wish I go with a Katana or something with built in modeling effects, but I’m in way too deep with a full midi pedalboard.
Had a Fender Twin for years. But being a rhythm player, I do not need all the bells and whistles. I already have a LT-25. I like the Mustang amps. Just enough power for the small venues around here. The 25 has the same set-up as the 50. I like them because my acoustic sounds just as good through them as the two acoustic amps I already have. My first amp was a Vox. I bought it when I re-enlisted in the Army along with a Vox Super Lynx guitar. But I have been playing Fender Amps since the mid-70’s. Right now, I have four amps counting the new one.
So we had Ricky Nalasco
And now we got
Ricky Vanasco.
I’m cool with Yellich if that’s what it takes to get Burnes.
Have we signed Shohei yet?
Nope. I expect that to happen during the winter meetings. That is when things will heat up considerably. I would love to be there since they are in Nashville.
I prefer memphis
Have you been there recently?
This summer
If you are a blues guy, you go to Memphis, a country guy like me goes to Nashville. Or Austin Texas.
Bear, what country acts you into now a days? What do you think of Midland, randy Rodgers band? Been living in the Dallas area for years now so my wife has introduced me to country.
Smooth805. I still prefer the older country. Most of today’s acts all sound the same. Less individuality. I have never heard the Randy Rogers band. But back in the 80’s, Kenny Rogers nephew, Randy Rogers, had a band. Not the same guy. I have actually never heard of Midland. My brother on the other hand has thousands of CD’s and I would bet he has theirs. So, when I head out to California next month for the holidays, I will give a listen. I do not listen to country radio anymore. I am into the more traditional country like Haggard, Strait, Alabama, George Jones, Waylon and Willie. I do like guys like Josh Turner, and Blake Shelton. Brad Paisley is good too. And of course, Alan Jackson. I even like some of the older stuff, Johnny Horton, Eddie Dean, who was a singing cowboy in the movies. When I played in LA, I did shows with some country stars. It was a real learning experience. If you want to listen to some really great harmony’s, pick up any album by Restless Heart. They were one of the best and their lead singer, Larry Stewart, had one hell of a voice. I also like Vince Gill and the Gatlin Brothers. Female singers I like, Dolly Parton, Reba, and Terri Clark.
Good show Watford. I’d forgotten all about Nalasco.
How about Nalasco to Vanasco to Fiasco, a great double play combo.
My sources tell me Shohei is signing with the A’s. He’ll have so much money he won’t know what to do with it, so Vegas seems like the perfect spot to go through it in a hurry.
We had Nolasco for all of 16 games in 2013. He went 8-3 with a 3.52 ERA. He lost the only game he pitched in the NLCS against the Cardinals. Who is Flasco??? Are you thinking about Frasso???
Rockies just traded a minor league catcher for Quantrill from Cleveland.
Rockies trading for a fly-ball pitcher who doesn’t miss a ton of bats is a weird one.
Yep, but they need pitching more than anything else. They do not have much choice,
Korean closer, Woo Suk Go, no kidding guys, has asked his team to post him this winter so he can play in the majors. No word as to whether his team, the LG Twins will accede to his request
We don’t want him… he suks!
Ho lee fuk
Wee tu lo
You guys are killing me with the names. I’m still laughing at Duke’s name from the post two days ago!
Back to analytics: The more statistics and analytics you have, the better. The challenge is to have it in a form where it is easy to use.
For example, let’s say a manager is trying to decide which LH pinch hitter to use against a RHP. Well, you want to know how this LH hitter hits fastballs, off-speed, curves, etc. That helps you decide which guy to use, but then you also have to take into consideration what you know about this player’s personality, etc. Stats, and plenty of them help, but sometimes it simply boils down to the human element. Stats are a manager’s friend… not his enemy!
Mark. Just a quick thing about yesterday. We’re back to what we did last year with Vargas and Outman. You’re talking about who is more likely to be better in the long run and I’m talking about who is more likely ready to go RIGHT NOW in my scenario of 1 starting spot open for the young homegrown guys. Just my scenario. My scenario doesn’t have to happen or be right. It was just the scenario we were talking about.
You keep thinking long run and I keep thinking right now. Don’t argue against this paragraph, because in your last post yesterday, you brought up who has been ranked higher as a prospect, so YOU ARE thinking long run.
It’s official.
No non-tenders for the Dodgers.
Non-tender is the night.
Surprising. Trades starting to happen. Braves traded two more of their young pitchers.
A couple of interesting names on the non-tender list. Dakota Hudson and Brandon Woodruff. Also, Austin Meadows, 28-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder and former All-Star when he was with the Rays in 19. Hit 31 homers that season. Had 27 with the Rays in 21. Had some injuries the last couple of seasons. Spent last year with the Tigers.
A couple of interesting names on the non-tender list. Dakota Hudson and Brandon Woodruff. Also, Austin Meadows, 28-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder and former All-Star when he was with the Rays in 19. Hit 31 homers that season. Had 27 with the Rays in 21. Had some injuries the last couple of seasons. Spent last year with the Tigers.
Dodgers re-sign Yency Almonte to a one year, 1.9-million-dollar contract. Ferguson, Buehler, Feyereisen, Gonzalez, Graterol, Smith, Lux, May, Phillips, Yarbrough, and Vesia, all tendered contracts. If Almonte returns to the form he showed in 22, that is a nice deal.
If the Dodgers got Yelich Addames and Burnes wouldn’t that improve them since they need a everyday Leftfielder and shortstop and niner one started in playoff I think so an Athena move Lux to second base that improves them if they don’t sign Ohtani then muncy becomes DH but who plays thirdbase then Busch Vargas or do they go and get Chapman. It’s all based on if they get Ohatani right if they don’t then they need a backup plan
They do not need a shortstop. They have Lux. And he is going to get every chance to secure the job. As far as Yelich goes, he does bring some skills to the table. I am just not sure the Dodgers want that contract with 130 million left on it. He does hit lefties pretty good, .270 against them for his career. But he has a weak arm. And who do you give up? I do not like Adames because he strikes out too damn much. He has power. They are not going to sign Chapman Bradley, not a chance. He also strikes out a lot. They should and will inquire as to Burne’s availability. But ask these questions after Ohtani signs, wherever he might go. Right now, it is all guess work. The roster is at 39. They have one spot open. In order to trade for those three, they have to send three or more the other way. And don’t be fooled, Ohtani is their main target. No matter what he might cost. They also want Betts to get time in the infield, and the only way he does that is playing second. I just don’t see why everyone thinks Adames is such an upgrade. My fondest memory of him is him striking out to end the 2020 World Series and he does that a lot. They have enough swing and miss as it is.
hey bear! ever listen to sturgill simpson? cody jenks? turnpike troubadours? damn good music. would love baseball in charlotte. 3 hours from home and i have grandkids there! perfect! back to music, if you have sirius radio check out outlaw country. they play old , and good music you won’t hear on the crappie stations that play so called country music. waylon’s boy shooter has a show on saturdays. plays all kinds of music. good stuff!
My youngest son loves Sturgill simpson.
Ohtani will be a Dodger soon. Bet it!!! AF will not swing and miss twice on a player he has coveted since Ohtani’s high school days. The money is there, the winning culture is there and certainly the weather is there. Not a hard decision for Ohtani. He will also attract future free agents to play with the Dodgers. Another factor ownership is all in.
I see the other side of the coin. He might sign him for 5 years, bit I do not believe there is any way he will go 8 or 10 years.